UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.1 #251
Expected Predictive Rating -7.5 #287
Pace 63.9 #310
Improvement +2.3 #89

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #290 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense #186 C D+ B- F+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #346 1.18 #146 -4.3 #321
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #16 0.62 #346 +2.0 #76
Three Pointers 38% #240 1.01 #192 -1.6 #242
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #302 -3.9 #299
Freethrows 0.26 #312 69% #289 0.18 #324
Second Chance 25.8% #309 1.00 #203 0.26 #287
Turnovers 16.5% #152
Total Offense -4.5 #290

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #225 1.17 #189 +0.7 #153
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #94 0.84 #315 -1.6 #300
Three Pointers 40% #220 0.99 #141 +1.0 #138
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #184 +0.1 #180
Freethrows 0.38 #352 74% #275 0.28 #355
Second Chance 34.1% #311 1.04 #200 0.35 #284
Turnovers 18.7% #80
Total Defense -0.5 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.9% #352 -0.8% #102
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #236 1.2% #207
Possession Length 18.7 #321 17.1 #164
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #161 0.18 #199
Improvement +0.2 #173 +2.1 #69

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 0.9% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 4.7% 0.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.9% 8.5% 28.4%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round0.5% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Home) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 45 - 68 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 153 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 42% -3  0 - 1 -16 -8 D F A- -10 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 32 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  0 - 2 -7 -12 F D+ D+ +5 B- C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 149 William & Mary L 63 - 74 29% -8  0 - 3 -10 -13 F B- C- +3 C C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 119 UAB L 59 - 75 22% -7  0 - 4 -13 -6 C F+ D- -9 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 133 @Seattle L 68 - 75 18% -1  0 - 5 -2 +7 B- C+ B- -10 D F C+
 Sat, Dec 13 99 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 12% +2  0 - 6 +3 +1 D+ A B +1 B+ A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 308 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 74% -3  0 - 7 -13 -6 C- C F -7 F B+ B
 Mon, Dec 22 140 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 37% +3  1 - 7 +8 +4 C C C+ +5 C A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 227 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 34% -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -2 F A- F -12 F A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 2 182 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 26% -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -23 -6 D- D C- -22 D- F C-
 Sun, Jan 4 180 @Florida International L 64 - 76 26% -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -10 -5 D- F+ B -6 C- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 168 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 44% -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 -0 +8 D+ A+ B+ -9 C C C
 Sat, Jan 10 158 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 42% -0  2 - 11 1 - 4 -15 -15 F F+ F+ -1 C B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 283 @Delaware W 70 - 69 46% -2  3 - 11 2 - 4 -3 +6 C C- A+ -8 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 92 @Liberty L 69 - 80 10% -7  3 - 12 2 - 5 -2 +6 A+ F D -10 D- C D-
 Thu, Jan 22 180 Florida International W 83 - 77 47% +5  4 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +6 B+ C+ D+ -5 D- B+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 182 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 48% +2  4 - 13 3 - 6 -10 -13 D F B +3 B+ C- A
 Wed, Jan 28 227 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 56% -6  4 - 14 3 - 7 -17 -10 F F C -8 D- D A+
 Sat, Jan 31 283 Delaware W 70 - 55 68% +2  5 - 14 4 - 7 +5 +2 D- C A +5 A+ D- B+
 Wed, Feb 4 114 @Sam Houston St. L 66 - 70 14% -4  5 - 15 4 - 8 +2 -4 D F A+ +6 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 161 New Mexico St. L 68 - 70 43%
 Wed, Feb 11 195 @Jacksonville St. L 62 - 68 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 92 Liberty L 65 - 73 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 161 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 73 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 168 @Middle Tennessee L 62 - 70 23%
 Sat, Feb 28 158 @Western Kentucky L 66 - 74 23%
 Thu, Mar 5 145 Kennesaw St. L 73 - 76 38%
 Sat, Mar 7 195 Jacksonville St. W 66 - 65 51%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -5 -5 D+ D+ C -1 C D+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.4 0.8 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 0.7 2.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.7 0.2 4.4 7th
8th 1.1 5.1 1.1 7.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 7.1 6.2 0.3 14.3 9th
10th 0.5 6.7 11.1 1.7 20.0 10th
11th 3.3 14.1 17.1 6.1 0.2 40.9 11th
12th 3.0 4.3 1.0 0.2 8.5 12th
Total 6.4 18.9 25.6 25.5 14.9 6.3 2.0 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.4% 0.4
10-10 2.0% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.1 1.9
9-11 6.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 6.1
8-12 14.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.8
7-13 25.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.4
6-14 25.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 25.5
5-15 18.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 18.8
4-16 6.4% 6.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.8%