UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.5 243
Expected Predictive Rating -5.5 253
Pace 63.9 308
Improvement +3.8 46

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 275 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense C 189 C D+ B- D- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 C+ 60% 125 -4.4 328
2 Pt. Jumpers 49% 57 F+ 31% 352 +1.6 91
Three Pointers 39% 215 C+ 35% 140 -0.3 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ -1.8 348 C- -1.2 217
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 274
Second Chance D+ 26.4% 293 C- 0.99 245 D+ 0.26 296
Turnovers C 17.0% 186
Freethrows D+ 0.27 282 D 69% 295 D 0.19 307
Total Offense D+ -4.0 275

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D- 38% 324 C+ 9.9% 116
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 74 D+ 6.9% 297
Three Pointers B- 87% 120 B+ 0.2% 36
Total C- 53% 235 C+ 5.2% 133

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 249 C 58% 190 -1.0 137
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 94 D 42% 306 +1.5 302
Three Pointers 40% 200 C 34% 174 -0.3 159
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- -0.4 95 C- +0.8 212
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 187
Second Chance D 33.7% 308 C 1.03 178 D+ 0.35 270
Turnovers B- 18.4% 89
Freethrows D- 0.37 332 C 73% 209 D- 0.27 333
Total Defense C -0.5 189

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D 56% 325 B- 14.3% 63
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 209 B- 6.3% 85
Three Pointers C- 85% 120 C- 0.8% 36
Total C- 58% 243 B- 7.0% 74

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.7 317 17.2 168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 148 0.19 242
Improvement +1.3 #120 +2.4 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 2% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 6% 18% 2%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 22% 4% 27%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round1% 1% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Mexico St. (Away) - 24.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 34 - 94 - 14
Quad 45 - 69 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 153 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 44% -3  29% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -11 D- F B+ D- -7 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 28 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 3% -12  3% 0 - 2 D+ -6 F -15 F D+ D A +9 B+ C+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 134 William & Mary L 63 - 74 28% -8  0% 0 - 3 D -9 F -16 F B- D+ A- +7 C B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 123 UAB L 59 - 75 24% -7  11% 0 - 4 D- -13 D- -8 C F+ F+ D- -7 B F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 126 @Seattle L 68 - 75 17% -1  33% 0 - 5 C -2 B +6 B B- C+ D- -8 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 108 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 15% +2  62% 0 - 6 C+ +2 C- -2 D A B B- +3 B+ B+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 306 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 75% -3  25% 0 - 7 D- -13 F+ -8 C- C F D+ -4 F+ A- B
 Mon, Dec 22 135 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 38% +3  66% 1 - 7 B +9 C +1 C C C A- +8 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 219 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 34% -11  1% 1 - 8 0 - 1 D- -12 D+ -4 F A- F F -10 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 2 201 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 31% -16  0% 1 - 9 0 - 2 F -23 F+ -9 F+ D+ D+ F -20 F+ F C
 Sun, Jan 4 191 @Florida International L 64 - 76 30% -2  36% 1 - 10 0 - 3 D -11 D- -7 D- F+ B D+ -4 C- F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 171 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 47% -5  11% 2 - 10 1 - 3 C -1 B- +4 D A+ B D+ -5 C C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 170 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 47% -0  43% 2 - 11 1 - 4 F+ -16 F -18 F F F B- +2 C B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 263 @Delaware W 70 - 69 43% -2  16% 3 - 11 2 - 4 C- -2 C+ +3 C+ D A+ D+ -4 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 95 @Liberty L 69 - 80 12% -7  1% 3 - 12 2 - 5 C- -3 B- +4 A+ F D- D- -8 F+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 22 191 Florida International W 83 - 77 52% +5  91% 4 - 12 3 - 5 C +1 B- +4 B+ C+ D C- -3 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 201 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 54% +2  63% 4 - 13 3 - 6 D -10 F -16 D- F B B+ +5 B C- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 219 Louisiana Tech L 59 - 69 57% -6  19% 4 - 14 3 - 7 F+ -16 F -11 F F C+ D -6 D- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 31 263 Delaware W 70 - 55 66% +2  53% 5 - 14 4 - 7 B- +6 C- -1 D C- A A +9 A+ D- A
 Wed, Feb 4 116 @Sam Houston St. L 66 - 70 16% -4  11% 5 - 15 4 - 8 C+ +2 D- -7 D- F A+ A +9 A+ D C
 Sat, Feb 7 155 New Mexico St. W 91 - 88 OT 44% -5  14% 6 - 15 5 - 8 C -0 C -0 D- A D C -0 C C+ D
 Wed, Feb 11 200 @Jacksonville St. W 69 - 64 31% +0  35% 7 - 15 6 - 8 B- +6 B +7 A+ F+ D+ C -1 F C- A-
 Sat, Feb 14 95 Liberty L 64 - 73 25% -2  27% 7 - 16 6 - 9 D+ -7 D -4 B D D+ D+ -4 C C D+
 Sat, Feb 21 155 @New Mexico St. L 66 - 73 24%
 Thu, Feb 26 171 @Middle Tennessee L 65 - 72 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 170 @Western Kentucky L 67 - 74 26%
 Thu, Mar 5 165 Kennesaw St. L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 200 Jacksonville St. W 66 - 65 53%
Totals 9 - 19 8 - 12 -4 D+ -4 F C- F+ C -1 C+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C+ F+ C+ C- 30% 49% 39% F+ D+ D+ C- D+ C D+ D D C C D C C- 37% 23% 40% B- C D C D+ B- D- C D-
1.03 60% 31% 35% -1 -2 0.96 26% 1.0 .26 17% .27 69% .19 1.09 58% 42% 34% +1 0 1.03 34% 1.0 .35 18% .37 73% .20
Nov
11		 Loyola Marymount F F F A+ D+ 22% 43% 35% F D- F+ F F B+ F+ C+ F+ D- F+ B F F 30% 20% 50% C- F F F F A+ A+ F A+
0.92 27% 27% 44% -6 -4 0.82 23% 0.8 .18 13% .22 75% .16 1.13 69% 33% 45% +11 -1 1.23 36% 1.4 .52 30% .11 80% .09
Nov
15		 Utah St. F A+ F F F 36% 32% 32% D F F+ B+ D+ D B+ F D A F C- A+ B+ 39% 12% 49% B- B+ F A+ C+ A+ F A F
0.75 69% 14% 14% -13 -2 0.73 23% 1.1 .26 24% .36 53% .19 1.10 75% 40% 25% 0 +1 1.05 47% 0.9 .43 25% .71 64% .45
Nov
24		 William & Mary F D- F F F 37% 21% 42% D+ F C- A B- D+ D+ D D A- C- D- C C 43% 14% 43% C+ C D A+ B- A+ D B+ C-
0.85 52% 25% 17% -16 0 0.70 28% 1.3 .35 20% .26 67% .17 1.00 62% 43% 33% +2 +1 1.08 30% 0.9 .27 26% .36 70% .26
Nov
25		 UAB D- C C- B- C+ 23% 27% 50% F+ C F D F+ F+ B+ C B+ D- D A+ A+ B 48% 33% 20% B- B F A- F C- F D+ F
0.93 60% 33% 36% +1 -2 1.00 16% 0.8 .13 21% .30 73% .22 1.19 64% 20% 22% -7 -1 0.87 54% 0.9 .46 11% .61 74% .45
Dec
7		 Seattle B A+ C- F A- 33% 31% 37% F+ B D A+ B- C+ D- C- D D- A+ F F F+ 36% 18% 47% C+ D- F F F C F C- F
1.03 76% 38% 26% +2 -2 1.02 26% 1.3 .32 20% .24 69% .17 1.13 44% 63% 43% +5 0 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 18% .44 71% .31
Dec
13		 Hawaii C- F+ F C- D 35% 27% 37% D D D+ A+ A B F F F B- A+ F C A 52% 9% 39% F B+ A+ D B+ F D F F
0.95 44% 29% 32% -9 -1 0.82 24% 1.8 .43 14% .18 50% .09 1.03 42% 50% 33% -8 +3 0.91 21% 1.1 .24 12% .39 82% .32
Dec
21		 Norfolk St. F+ A+ F D C- 36% 18% 46% D C- B+ D- C F A+ F D D+ A F F F 38% 24% 38% C- F+ C A+ A- B F B- F
1.02 78% 22% 30% +2 0 1.06 39% 0.9 .34 23% .50 44% .22 1.04 41% 64% 41% +4 -1 1.09 30% 0.7 .21 22% .55 63% .35
Dec
22		 North Dakota St. C C+ B+ A B 22% 40% 38% F C C+ D+ C C A+ C+ A+ A- D+ F A+ C- 36% 32% 32% B C- A+ A- A+ A+ F C F
1.12 64% 45% 42% +9 -4 1.12 32% 0.8 .26 19% .38 76% .29 0.97 63% 71% 14% +3 -2 1.05 22% 0.8 .19 24% .40 71% .29
Dec
29		 Louisiana Tech D+ F F+ F+ F+ 17% 22% 61% F F A C+ A- F C A+ B F A+ F F F 36% 17% 48% C- F C+ A+ A+ F F B+ F
0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26 1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36
Jan
2		 Missouri St. F+ F A D- D 18% 49% 33% F F+ B+ F D+ D+ A- F C+ F F F+ D- F 23% 36% 41% A F+ F F F C F F F
0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28 1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40
Jan
4		 Florida International D- F F+ B- F+ 35% 17% 48% C- D- D+ F F+ B F A+ D D+ F+ D- A+ C 53% 16% 31% F+ C- F+ F F C+ F B+ F
0.96 39% 33% 36% -6 0 0.90 32% 0.8 .24 18% .22 83% .18 1.14 67% 43% 21% -1 +2 1.04 39% 1.3 .52 18% .49 63% .31
Jan
8		 Middle Tennessee B- B F B C 28% 40% 32% F D A- A A+ B A+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ D C- 26% 30% 44% A C A F C+ C+ D+ F F
1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40 1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25
Jan
10		 Western Kentucky F A+ F F F 17% 38% 45% F F C- F F F B- A- B+ B- B F+ B+ C- 41% 31% 27% A- C F+ A+ B- C F+ A+ C+
0.82 88% 22% 24% -8 -4 0.79 27% 0.4 .11 22% .42 77% .32 1.00 48% 44% 29% -5 -1 0.90 39% 0.7 .27 15% .38 59% .22
Jan
15		 Delaware C+ A F+ C- C+ 33% 24% 44% C C+ F A+ D A+ F F F D+ A+ A- F A 37% 23% 40% C+ A F F F F F B+ F
1.14 72% 31% 33% +3 -1 1.05 18% 1.3 .24 6% .16 67% .10 1.12 38% 30% 41% -5 0 0.91 30% 1.4 .41 13% .39 71% .28
Jan
17		 Liberty B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 23% 44% C- A+ F F F D- F F F D- F F C F 52% 8% 40% C F+ C+ C C D- B+ F C+
1.11 63% 64% 48% +16 -1 1.33 14% 1.0 .14 21% .08 50% .04 1.29 81% 50% 35% +13 +3 1.34 18% 1.0 .18 10% .20 82% .16
Jan
22		 Florida International B- B C+ A A 32% 26% 42% F+ B+ D- A+ C+ D D- C D- C- F+ C+ F F 38% 36% 26% A+ F+ C+ A+ A- C+ F B+ F
1.16 65% 43% 41% +8 -1 1.15 29% 1.3 .39 22% .25 71% .18 1.07 67% 35% 50% +8 -2 1.15 31% 0.8 .25 18% .46 63% .29
Jan
24		 Missouri St. F C F A+ D- 22% 41% 37% D- D- F F F B F C F B+ F B+ A+ B+ 30% 28% 43% C+ B A+ F C- A+ F F F
0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20 0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34
Jan
28		 Louisiana Tech F F F C F 29% 27% 44% F+ F F+ F+ F C+ B A+ A+ D A+ F F F+ 38% 30% 32% B+ D- F C- D- A+ F F F
0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -1 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32 1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29
Jan
31		 Delaware C- B+ F A+ C- 27% 42% 31% F D B F C- A A+ C A+ A F A+ A+ A+ 27% 22% 51% B A+ F A+ D- A F F F
1.12 67% 21% 43% -1 -4 0.93 35% 0.8 .27 10% .44 80% .36 0.88 73% 11% 10% -21 -1 0.59 39% 0.6 .25 22% .60 93% .56
Feb
4		 Sam Houston St. D- D A- F D+ 29% 41% 31% F D- F F F A+ F C+ F A A- A+ A+ A+ 47% 16% 37% D A+ C D- D C F F+ F
0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16 1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 New Mexico St. C B- F D+ D 23% 26% 51% D- D- B+ B A D A+ F A+ C B+ B F C 38% 29% 33% C- C B- C- C+ D D+ A+ C+
1.12 62% 20% 31% -6 -2 0.86 38% 1.3 .49 17% .56 68% .39 1.08 50% 33% 43% 0 -1 1.00 30% 1.0 .30 12% .32 61% .20
Feb
11		 Jacksonville St. B C+ B A+ A+ 24% 17% 59% D A+ D+ F F+ D+ A- D B C D B- F F 37% 22% 41% A F C- C C- A- B+ A+ A
1.15 60% 43% 46% +12 -1 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 18% .39 74% .29 1.07 60% 33% 47% +8 0 1.17 31% 1.0 .31 22% .30 57% .17
Feb
14		 Liberty D A+ F A+ A- 28% 34% 38% F B F+ B+ D D+ C- C C- D+ F C- C+ C- 37% 10% 53% A- C D- A+ C D+ F A+ C-
1.04 69% 31% 44% +7 -2 1.11 23% 1.3 .31 20% .22 73% .16 1.19 78% 40% 35% +8 +1 1.20 24% 0.8 .18 11% .33 56% .18



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 0.6 1.9 3rd
4th 0.7 2.4 0.1 3.2 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 1.2 4.8 5th
6th 0.2 6.7 0.3 7.2 6th
7th 2.6 5.3 0.0 8.0 7th
8th 0.3 11.7 1.5 13.4 8th
9th 0.1 4.8 14.4 0.1 19.4 9th
10th 1.6 14.1 4.1 19.8 10th
11th 6.0 10.5 0.3 16.7 11th
12th 4.2 1.4 0.0 5.6 12th
Total 11.9 31.0 33.2 18.0 5.2 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.7% 6.4% 6.4% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.7
10-10 5.2% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.2 5.0
9-11 18.0% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3 17.7
8-12 33.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.4 32.9
7-13 31.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 30.8
6-14 11.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.9
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 16.0 98.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 8.1%