Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#265
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#242
Pace63.4#318
Improvement-1.5#259

Offense
Total Offense-5.1#304
First Shot-2.9#264
After Offensive Rebound-2.2#310
Layup/Dunks+0.1#164
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#234
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
Freethrows-2.5#330
Improvement+2.0#73

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#166
First Shot+0.4#163
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks-7.0#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#107
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#21
Freethrows+1.7#62
Improvement-3.5#332
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.8% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 10.2% 40.1% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.0% 1.5%
First Four1.3% 1.6% 1.3%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Away) - 19.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 104 - 14
Quad 47 - 411 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 190   Northern Kentucky W 74-57 47%     1 - 0 +12.6 +3.6 +9.7
  Nov 09, 2023 164   Stephen F. Austin W 67-62 OT 41%     2 - 0 +2.2 -8.5 +10.4
  Nov 13, 2023 136   Western Carolina L 64-66 34%     2 - 1 -2.8 -3.7 +0.7
  Nov 21, 2023 117   UAB L 57-58 28%     2 - 2 +0.0 -8.1 +7.9
  Nov 24, 2023 203   Illinois-Chicago L 40-70 40%     2 - 3 -32.6 -27.1 -9.1
  Nov 25, 2023 154   Ohio L 68-80 29%     2 - 4 -11.5 -1.0 -11.7
  Nov 26, 2023 250   UMKC W 63-59 47%     3 - 4 -0.4 -2.2 +2.3
  Dec 02, 2023 210   Wofford L 64-74 OT 52%     3 - 5 -15.5 -16.4 +1.3
  Dec 05, 2023 163   Missouri St. W 77-73 OT 41%     4 - 5 +1.2 -0.1 +1.2
  Dec 09, 2023 131   Belmont L 65-75 33%     4 - 6 -10.6 -4.6 -6.8
  Dec 19, 2023 24   @ St. Mary's L 34-71 4%     4 - 7 -21.0 -24.7 -2.1
  Dec 22, 2023 224   @ Southern Utah L 63-69 33%     4 - 8 -6.5 -7.7 +0.7
  Dec 30, 2023 139   @ Murray St. L 54-75 18%     4 - 9 -16.4 -16.6 -0.1
  Jan 11, 2024 94   Louisiana Tech L 52-60 21%     4 - 10 0 - 1 -4.7 -11.8 +6.2
  Jan 13, 2024 147   Sam Houston St. L 51-60 37%     4 - 11 0 - 2 -10.7 -14.2 +2.2
  Jan 18, 2024 193   @ UTEP L 59-73 29%     4 - 12 0 - 3 -13.3 -9.0 -4.4
  Jan 20, 2024 268   @ New Mexico St. L 62-73 40%     4 - 13 0 - 4 -13.5 -10.5 -3.0
  Jan 24, 2024 177   Jacksonville St. W 75-67 44%     5 - 13 1 - 4 +4.4 +4.1 +0.5
  Jan 27, 2024 273   Florida International W 79-61 62%     6 - 13 2 - 4 +9.8 +6.1 +4.6
  Feb 03, 2024 134   @ Western Kentucky L 65-88 18%     6 - 14 2 - 5 -18.3 -6.7 -10.4
  Feb 08, 2024 121   @ Liberty L 53-88 15%     6 - 15 2 - 6 -29.1 -16.5 -13.4
  Feb 10, 2024 273   @ Florida International W 68-66 41%     7 - 15 3 - 6 -0.7 -6.7 +5.9
  Feb 15, 2024 268   New Mexico St. W 76-69 61%     8 - 15 4 - 6 -1.0 +9.0 -9.3
  Feb 17, 2024 193   UTEP W 96-90 2OT 48%     9 - 15 5 - 6 +1.3 +8.5 -8.3
  Feb 21, 2024 177   @ Jacksonville St. L 68-76 25%     9 - 16 5 - 7 -6.1 +1.4 -7.9
  Feb 24, 2024 134   Western Kentucky W 74-72 34%     10 - 16 6 - 7 +1.3 -1.3 +2.5
  Mar 02, 2024 147   @ Sam Houston St. L 61-70 19%    
  Mar 05, 2024 121   Liberty L 62-68 31%    
  Mar 09, 2024 94   @ Louisiana Tech L 56-70 9%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.9 0.4 1.3 3rd
4th 5.2 6.7 0.4 12.3 4th
5th 0.9 18.2 1.8 20.9 5th
6th 36.6 15.2 0.1 51.9 6th
7th 13.4 0.0 13.4 7th
8th 0.4 0.4 8th
9th 9th
Total 51.2 38.6 9.4 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7 0.8% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-8 9.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.2
7-9 38.6% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.6 38.0
6-10 51.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.6 50.6
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.4 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 2.1% 15.8 0.5 1.6
Lose Out 51.2% 1.1% 16.0 1.1