Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.4 #122
Expected Predictive Rating +3.3 #116
Pace 66.1 #268
Improvement -0.3 #209

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #178 B- D- B- F D
Defense #96 B+ B- C- D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.26 #80 -1.6 #242
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #88 0.75 #174 +1.8 #83
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.13 #40 +2.9 #88
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #94 +3.2 #92
Freethrows 14.5 #313 68% #304 9.9 #325
Second Chance 29.2% #231 0.83 #356 0.24 #323
Turnovers 15.4% #114
Total Offense -0.4 #178

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #93 1.13 #144 -1.4 #228
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #105 0.66 #59 +0.3 #173
Three Pointers 36% #321 0.83 #11 +6.1 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #48 +5.0 #44
Freethrows 18.6 #251 74% #261 13.8 #98
Second Chance 26.5% #51 1.08 #239 0.29 #104
Turnovers 15.6% #233
Total Defense +2.8 #96

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #305 -0.1% #161
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.4% #59 -9.6% #36
Possession Length 18.2 #274 17.8 #268
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #222 0.13 #48
Improvement -2.9 #329 +2.7 #49

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 16.5% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.4
.500 or above 82.3% 86.7% 68.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 95.4% 84.6%
Conference Champion 13.3% 15.9% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round15.3% 16.5% 11.6%
Second Round1.2% 1.5% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 38 - 59 - 11
Quad 47 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 252 @Evansville W 77 - 72 67% +8  1 - 0 +3 +5 A F B -2 D+ A D-
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 2% -13  1 - 1 +3 -3 C C D+ +10 A+ B+ A
 Sun, Nov 23 88 Murray St. W 90 - 87 35% +3  2 - 1 +9 +11 B- A+ A- -2 C+ B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 68 George Washington L 79 - 92 29% -10  2 - 2 -5 +4 B- B+ D -9 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 81 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 32% +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 A+ F A+ -12 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 1 108 UAB W 76 - 61 54% +4  3 - 3 +16 +8 C A+ B- +9 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 79 Belmont L 62 - 83 42% -8  3 - 4 -17 -11 F C- A+ -6 C+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 157 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 70% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -6 D F F +4 A+ C+ C+
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Houston L 60 - 69 3% -5  4 - 5 +15 +11 A+ D+ F +3 A- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 2 226 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 80% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +30 +33 A+ F A+ +5 C B A+
 Sun, Jan 4 127 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 63% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 -0 -5 B F B +5 C B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 257 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 68% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +6 D+ F B- -11 C F F
 Sat, Jan 10 143 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 43% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +8 -7 D F A- +15 A+ A+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 226 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 61% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -2 -7 D- C+ F +5 A A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 200 Missouri St. W 71 - 63 76%
 Sat, Jan 24 217 @Jacksonville St. W 68 - 65 60%
 Wed, Jan 28 93 Liberty L 70 - 71 49%
 Sat, Jan 31 148 Western Kentucky W 77 - 72 66%
 Wed, Feb 4 172 Florida International W 78 - 72 73%
 Sat, Feb 7 274 @Delaware W 68 - 62 70%
 Thu, Feb 12 157 @Kennesaw St. L 76 - 77 48%
 Sat, Feb 14 148 @Western Kentucky L 74 - 75 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 127 @Sam Houston St. L 73 - 76 41%
 Sat, Feb 21 274 Delaware W 71 - 59 86%
 Thu, Feb 26 257 UTEP W 72 - 61 84%
 Sat, Feb 28 143 New Mexico St. W 71 - 67 64%
 Thu, Mar 5 172 @Florida International W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 200 @Missouri St. W 68 - 66 56%
Totals 16 - 12 13 - 7 +2 +0 B- D- B- +3 B+ B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 2.6 4.2 3.6 1.8 0.4 13.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.3 10.1 12.1 7.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 35.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 7.9 6.4 1.7 0.1 18.2 3rd
4th 0.6 4.9 5.1 0.9 0.0 11.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.7 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.3 8.3 12.7 17.2 18.2 16.4 11.5 6.2 2.1 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 94.1% 0.4    0.4 0.0
17-3 84.2% 1.8    1.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 58.7% 3.6    2.3 1.3 0.0
15-5 36.9% 4.2    2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 15.7% 2.6    0.7 1.2 0.6 0.1
13-7 4.1% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.3% 13.3 6.8 5.1 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.4% 41.2% 41.2% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
17-3 2.1% 31.1% 31.1% 12.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 1.4
16-4 6.2% 30.1% 30.1% 12.3 0.1 1.2 0.6 0.0 4.3
15-5 11.5% 24.1% 24.1% 12.7 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.2 8.7
14-6 16.4% 19.6% 19.6% 12.8 0.0 1.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 13.2
13-7 18.2% 16.6% 16.6% 13.1 0.6 1.6 0.8 0.0 15.2
12-8 17.2% 12.1% 12.1% 13.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 15.1
11-9 12.7% 7.7% 7.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 11.7
10-10 8.3% 4.8% 4.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 7.9
9-11 4.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.3 0.1 0.1 4.1
8-12 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 1.9
7-13 0.7% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 13.0 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.3 2.9 65.7 31.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%