Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#128
Expected Predictive Rating+6.7#87
Pace69.2#172
Improvement-1.5#279

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#150
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#166
Layup/Dunks+7.4#10
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#248
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement+0.0#185

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#294
Layups/Dunks-0.4#184
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#124
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#57
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement-1.5#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 10.2% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.2
.500 or above 69.7% 82.6% 61.2%
.500 or above in Conference 62.2% 69.4% 57.6%
Conference Champion 8.1% 10.9% 6.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 3.8% 6.8%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round8.0% 10.2% 6.6%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Away) - 39.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 39 - 611 - 12
Quad 46 - 217 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 178   @ Abilene Christian W 79-56 49%     1 - 0 +25.0 +5.7 +18.9
  Nov 13, 2024 243   Evansville W 80-63 80%     2 - 0 +9.7 +0.5 +8.3
  Nov 16, 2024 117   Murray St. L 67-88 57%     2 - 1 -21.2 -4.2 -17.6
  Nov 21, 2024 157   Ohio W 83-81 OT 56%     3 - 1 +2.3 -4.2 +6.2
  Nov 22, 2024 148   South Florida W 95-88 54%     4 - 1 +7.6 +21.8 -14.2
  Nov 24, 2024 71   Bradley L 69-80 27%     4 - 2 -3.0 +3.9 -7.8
  Dec 01, 2024 124   @ UAB W 76-69 36%     5 - 2 +12.2 +3.8 +8.5
  Dec 07, 2024 132   @ Belmont L 76-79 39%    
  Dec 16, 2024 185   California Baptist W 73-67 71%    
  Dec 19, 2024 105   Lipscomb W 73-72 53%    
  Dec 23, 2024 4   @ Tennessee L 59-81 2%    
  Jan 02, 2025 253   @ Florida International W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 70   @ Liberty L 62-71 19%    
  Jan 09, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 11, 2025 174   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 78-77 55%    
  Jan 23, 2025 139   @ Sam Houston St. L 73-76 40%    
  Jan 25, 2025 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 30, 2025 218   New Mexico St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 01, 2025 158   UTEP W 73-69 65%    
  Feb 06, 2025 174   @ Jacksonville St. L 69-70 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 77-79 42%    
  Feb 15, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 75-80 34%    
  Feb 20, 2025 103   Louisiana Tech W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 22, 2025 139   Sam Houston St. W 76-73 62%    
  Feb 27, 2025 218   @ New Mexico St. W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 158   @ UTEP L 70-72 45%    
  Mar 06, 2025 70   Liberty L 65-68 39%    
  Mar 08, 2025 253   Florida International W 78-68 80%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0 8.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.6 3.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.5 3.8 0.9 0.1 13.8 3rd
4th 0.3 3.2 6.1 3.6 0.6 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.8 6.1 3.4 0.4 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 5.5 3.3 0.5 0.0 11.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 10.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 1.4 0.3 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.9 7.0 9.9 11.9 13.6 13.3 11.8 9.8 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 98.1% 0.8    0.7 0.1
15-3 84.2% 1.8    1.4 0.4 0.0
14-4 55.9% 2.3    1.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 31.1% 2.0    0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 4.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 42.2% 36.3% 5.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.3%
16-2 0.8% 31.8% 31.3% 0.5% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 0.7%
15-3 2.1% 28.9% 28.9% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5
14-4 4.1% 21.1% 21.1% 12.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.2
13-5 6.5% 17.8% 17.8% 12.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 5.4
12-6 9.8% 13.9% 13.9% 12.8 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.4
11-7 11.8% 9.4% 9.4% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.7
10-8 13.3% 7.3% 7.3% 13.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 12.3
9-9 13.6% 5.7% 5.7% 13.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 12.8
8-10 11.9% 3.7% 3.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.4
7-11 9.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 9.7
6-12 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 6.9
5-13 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 4.9
4-14 2.4% 2.4
3-15 1.1% 1.1
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 92.0 0.0%