Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.7#121
Expected Predictive Rating+3.2#123
Pace67.7#193
Improvement-0.2#207

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#175
First Shot-0.5#202
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#139
Layup/Dunks+2.7#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#284
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#230
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#98
First Shot+1.6#124
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#87
Layups/Dunks-0.3#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#32
Freethrows-2.6#337
Improvement-0.4#240
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.5% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.3 14.2
.500 or above 82.3% 89.7% 64.0%
.500 or above in Conference 59.4% 69.6% 34.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round5.1% 5.4% 4.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Home) - 71.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 21 - 3
Quad 23 - 33 - 6
Quad 38 - 412 - 10
Quad 44 - 316 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2022 244   @ Winthrop L 68-76 66%     0 - 1 -9.6 -14.7 +5.8
  Nov 15, 2022 170   Rice W 81-46 70%     1 - 1 +32.3 +9.8 +24.8
  Nov 19, 2022 136   @ Missouri St. L 51-75 43%     1 - 2 -19.5 -14.1 -7.8
  Nov 25, 2022 107   Hofstra W 64-54 46%     2 - 2 +13.8 -3.5 +18.1
  Nov 26, 2022 135   Stephen F. Austin W 75-63 53%     3 - 2 +13.8 -0.2 +13.4
  Nov 27, 2022 120   Montana St. W 72-71 50%     4 - 2 +3.7 +0.3 +3.3
  Nov 30, 2022 147   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-71 45%     4 - 3 -3.1 -0.7 -2.9
  Dec 10, 2022 128   @ Belmont W 85-75 OT 41%     5 - 3 +15.0 +3.9 +10.1
  Dec 15, 2022 164   Chattanooga L 73-82 69%     5 - 4 -11.5 +0.0 -12.1
  Dec 21, 2022 159   Murray St. W 83-67 69%     6 - 4 +13.6 +9.6 +4.4
  Dec 29, 2022 110   @ Charlotte L 67-82 36%     6 - 5 0 - 1 -8.7 +3.6 -13.8
  Dec 31, 2022 163   Western Kentucky W 65-60 69%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +2.6 -6.6 +9.3
  Jan 05, 2023 312   @ Texas San Antonio L 72-75 78%     7 - 6 1 - 2 -8.4 +2.0 -10.7
  Jan 07, 2023 80   North Texas L 51-56 45%     7 - 7 1 - 3 -1.1 -8.7 +6.7
  Jan 11, 2023 170   @ Rice W 71-68 50%     8 - 7 2 - 3 +5.8 +1.8 +4.2
  Jan 16, 2023 71   UAB W 74-73 OT 41%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +6.1 -3.3 +9.3
  Jan 19, 2023 110   Charlotte W 62-58 57%     10 - 7 4 - 3 +4.8 -6.7 +11.8
  Jan 21, 2023 137   @ Louisiana Tech W 68-51 43%     11 - 7 5 - 3 +21.5 +4.7 +18.6
  Jan 26, 2023 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 67-85 18%     11 - 8 5 - 4 -5.4 +1.7 -7.6
  Jan 28, 2023 226   @ Florida International L 74-82 61%     11 - 9 5 - 5 -8.3 -1.4 -6.6
  Feb 02, 2023 175   UTEP W 65-59 71%    
  Feb 04, 2023 312   Texas San Antonio W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 09, 2023 163   @ Western Kentucky L 68-69 48%    
  Feb 11, 2023 71   @ UAB L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 16, 2023 52   Florida Atlantic L 68-72 35%    
  Feb 18, 2023 226   Florida International W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 25, 2023 137   Louisiana Tech W 71-67 64%    
  Mar 02, 2023 80   @ North Texas L 54-61 26%    
  Mar 04, 2023 175   @ UTEP W 63-62 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.3 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.9 5.5 1.6 0.1 11.5 3rd
4th 0.4 7.3 11.5 3.4 0.1 22.7 4th
5th 0.0 4.5 12.5 4.4 0.2 0.0 21.6 5th
6th 0.9 10.1 5.5 0.3 16.8 6th
7th 0.1 4.6 6.7 0.7 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.4 1.2 7.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 1.6 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.8 4.3 12.6 22.9 26.4 20.2 9.8 2.7 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.4% 12.5% 9.7% 2.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.1%
13-7 2.7% 9.8% 9.6% 0.2% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.2%
12-8 9.8% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 9.1 0.0%
11-9 20.2% 5.7% 5.7% 12.9 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 19.0
10-10 26.4% 5.5% 5.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 24.9
9-11 22.9% 4.2% 4.2% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 21.9
8-12 12.6% 3.2% 3.2% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.2
7-13 4.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
6-14 0.8% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 12.5% 11.0 1.7 9.1 1.7
Lose Out 0.0%