Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#149
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#121
Pace70.0#171
Improvement+0.9#104

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#141
First Shot+2.0#117
After Offensive Rebound-1.3#253
Layup/Dunks+0.3#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement+1.3#63

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#190
First Shot-1.5#225
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#132
Layups/Dunks-3.5#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#50
Freethrows-2.8#324
Improvement-0.4#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 9.1% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 49.5% 63.2% 38.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.9% 71.9% 59.1%
Conference Champion 8.5% 10.7% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 4.3% 2.6% 5.6%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round7.1% 9.0% 5.6%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UAB (Home) - 45.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 13
Quad 48 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 291 @Evansville W 77-72 66%     1 - 0 +0.8 +2.0 -1.3
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +3.8 -2.8 +9.3
  Sun, Nov 23 118 Murray St. W 90-87 38%     2 - 1 +6.1 +9.9 -4.1
  Mon, Nov 24 62 George Washington L 79-92 20%     2 - 2 -4.2 +4.9 -8.8
  Tue, Nov 25 80 McNeese St. L 62-72 25%     2 - 3 -3.0 +7.3 -12.7
  Mon, Dec 1 107 UAB L 77-78 45%    
  Sun, Dec 7 94 Belmont L 75-78 40%    
  Wed, Dec 17 164 Kennesaw St. W 84-80 64%    
  Mon, Dec 29 6 @Houston L 57-80 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 193 Louisiana Tech W 70-65 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 140 Sam Houston St. W 78-76 56%    
  Thu, Jan 8 234 @UTEP W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Jan 10 111 @New Mexico St. L 66-73 27%    
  Wed, Jan 14 193 @Louisiana Tech L 67-68 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 241 Missouri St. W 73-65 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 225 @Jacksonville St. W 68-67 53%    
  Wed, Jan 28 96 Liberty L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Jan 31 123 Western Kentucky W 79-78 51%    
  Wed, Feb 4 217 Florida International W 78-72 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 242 @Delaware W 74-72 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 164 @Kennesaw St. L 81-83 42%    
  Sat, Feb 14 123 @Western Kentucky L 75-81 30%    
  Wed, Feb 18 140 @Sam Houston St. L 75-79 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 242 Delaware W 77-69 75%    
  Thu, Feb 26 234 UTEP W 72-65 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 111 New Mexico St. L 69-70 47%    
  Thu, Mar 5 217 @Florida International W 75-74 52%    
  Sat, Mar 7 241 @Missouri St. W 70-68 56%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.4 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.8 4.5 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 11.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.7 2.7 0.5 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.3 2.6 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 10.6 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 4.4 2.6 0.4 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 6.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 5.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.6 4.3 6.6 8.7 10.4 11.6 11.8 11.1 9.8 7.8 5.8 3.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 95.6% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 86.6% 1.9    1.5 0.4 0.0
16-4 62.8% 2.2    1.3 0.8 0.1
15-5 33.3% 1.9    0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0
14-6 12.8% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.5% 8.5 5.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 30.9% 30.9% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 36.2% 36.2% 12.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.2% 24.7% 24.7% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.6
16-4 3.5% 23.4% 23.4% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 2.7
15-5 5.8% 18.9% 18.9% 12.8 0.4 0.6 0.1 4.7
14-6 7.8% 14.1% 14.1% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 6.7
13-7 9.8% 11.0% 11.0% 13.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 8.7
12-8 11.1% 7.2% 7.2% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 10.3
11-9 11.8% 4.8% 4.8% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.3
10-10 11.6% 3.1% 3.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 11.2
9-11 10.4% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
8-12 8.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 8.6
7-13 6.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.5
6-14 4.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 2.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.6
4-16 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 13.3 0.0 0.2 1.6 2.7 1.6 0.7 0.4 92.8 0.0%