Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#183
Expected Predictive Rating+5.0#112
Pace71.6#113
Improvement+0.1#164

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#254
First Shot-4.7#308
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#70
Layup/Dunks-3.5#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#264
Freethrows+2.2#57
Improvement-0.3#219

Defense
Total Defense+1.6#115
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#181
Layups/Dunks+1.6#128
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#87
Freethrows-3.9#340
Improvement+0.4#141
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.7% 2.9% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.4
.500 or above 65.7% 67.7% 39.1%
.500 or above in Conference 54.0% 55.3% 38.3%
Conference Champion 2.8% 2.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.1% 9.3%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.7% 2.8% 0.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee Martin (Home) - 92.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 65 - 11
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 345   Bethune-Cookman W 71-51 92%     1 - 0 +3.6 -2.3 +8.2
  Nov 16, 2021 146   Winthrop W 76-65 52%     2 - 0 +9.5 -2.8 +11.7
  Nov 19, 2021 158   @ Stephen F. Austin L 74-87 33%     2 - 1 -9.5 -4.0 -4.3
  Nov 23, 2021 266   Rider W 60-54 68%     3 - 1 +0.1 -14.1 +14.3
  Nov 24, 2021 196   Mercer W 82-58 52%     4 - 1 +22.5 +4.9 +16.7
  Dec 01, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin W 80-64 93%    
  Dec 04, 2021 89   @ Murray St. L 62-72 18%    
  Dec 11, 2021 346   @ Tennessee Martin W 77-67 81%    
  Dec 15, 2021 69   @ Mississippi L 59-70 14%    
  Dec 19, 2021 227   Coastal Carolina W 74-69 67%    
  Dec 22, 2021 100   @ Chattanooga L 60-69 22%    
  Dec 30, 2021 300   Texas San Antonio W 78-69 82%    
  Jan 01, 2022 162   UTEP W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 06, 2022 184   @ Rice L 73-76 39%    
  Jan 08, 2022 108   @ North Texas L 57-65 23%    
  Jan 13, 2022 221   Florida Atlantic W 73-69 67%    
  Jan 15, 2022 226   Florida International W 69-64 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 247   Southern Miss W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 27, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 75-82 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 126   @ Western Kentucky L 68-75 29%    
  Feb 05, 2022 51   @ UAB L 63-76 12%    
  Feb 10, 2022 228   Old Dominion W 66-61 67%    
  Feb 13, 2022 223   Charlotte W 69-64 68%    
  Feb 17, 2022 226   @ Florida International L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 19, 2022 221   @ Florida Atlantic L 70-72 46%    
  Feb 24, 2022 114   Marshall L 78-79 46%    
  Feb 26, 2022 126   Western Kentucky L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 02, 2022 223   @ Charlotte L 66-67 46%    
  Mar 05, 2022 228   @ Old Dominion L 63-64 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 2.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.6 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 4.1 2.7 0.5 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.5 3.6 0.6 0.0 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.0 0.9 9.5 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 5.1 1.9 0.1 10.0 7th
8th 1.4 5.3 2.6 0.2 9.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.1 3.6 0.5 8.9 9th
10th 0.3 2.2 4.4 1.1 0.0 8.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.8 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.5 0.2 5.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.4 0.2 4.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.3 2.2 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.2 6.4 8.4 11.9 13.5 13.3 12.2 10.4 8.3 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 84.7% 0.4    0.3 0.1
15-3 57.1% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0
14-4 35.2% 1.0    0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 7.5% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.8% 2.8 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 56.6% 37.7% 18.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 30.3%
16-2 0.4% 10.0% 10.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
15-3 1.3% 18.9% 17.3% 1.6% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.9%
14-4 2.9% 11.6% 11.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.6
13-5 5.2% 9.5% 9.5% 13.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 4.7
12-6 8.3% 5.7% 5.7% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.8
11-7 10.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.9
10-8 12.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.9
9-9 13.3% 0.7% 0.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 13.2
8-10 13.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.2 0.1 0.0 13.4
7-11 11.9% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
6-12 8.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.4
5-13 6.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.4
4-14 3.2% 3.2
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 97.3 0.0%