Preseason Rankings
Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#199
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.7#158
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#189
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#219
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 7.4% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 12.3 13.2
.500 or above 28.6% 64.6% 28.1%
.500 or above in Conference 37.2% 61.6% 36.8%
Conference Champion 3.4% 8.7% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 16.8% 4.4% 17.0%
First Four0.2% 1.3% 0.2%
First Round3.4% 6.5% 3.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.9% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Away) - 1.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 75 - 14
Quad 47 - 312 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 60-83 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 89   @ Utah L 68-79 16%    
  Nov 19, 2025 157   Wyoming W 68-67 53%    
  Nov 26, 2025 287   Idaho St. W 72-67 67%    
  Nov 28, 2025 239   Idaho W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 02, 2025 73   @ Oklahoma St. L 70-83 13%    
  Dec 06, 2025 290   @ Texas Southern W 73-71 57%    
  Dec 17, 2025 117   @ Oregon St. L 65-73 24%    
  Dec 21, 2025 139   @ New Mexico St. L 64-71 29%    
  Jan 02, 2026 161   @ Western Kentucky L 74-79 34%    
  Jan 04, 2026 151   @ Middle Tennessee L 69-75 31%    
  Jan 08, 2026 236   Delaware W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 10, 2026 100   Liberty L 67-71 36%    
  Jan 14, 2026 154   @ Jacksonville St. L 65-70 33%    
  Jan 17, 2026 209   @ Florida International L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 21, 2026 146   Kennesaw St. L 75-76 49%    
  Jan 24, 2026 161   Western Kentucky W 77-76 54%    
  Jan 28, 2026 114   @ Missouri St. L 62-71 24%    
  Jan 31, 2026 144   Louisiana Tech L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 04, 2026 160   UTEP W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 07, 2026 144   @ Louisiana Tech L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 14, 2026 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 18, 2026 151   Middle Tennessee W 72-71 51%    
  Feb 21, 2026 154   Jacksonville St. W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 26, 2026 209   Florida International W 74-70 62%    
  Feb 28, 2026 114   Missouri St. L 65-68 42%    
  Mar 05, 2026 236   @ Delaware L 76-77 47%    
  Mar 07, 2026 100   @ Liberty L 64-74 20%    
Projected Record 11 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 6.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 3.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.0 3.0 0.4 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.8 4.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 3.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 11.2 11th
12th 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.1 2.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 11.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.5 6.1 8.4 9.0 10.0 10.8 9.6 9.3 8.2 6.4 5.1 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 93.8% 0.3    0.3 0.0
17-3 84.6% 0.6    0.5 0.1
16-4 65.1% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 38.8% 0.9    0.4 0.3 0.1
14-6 14.3% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 53.7% 53.7% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.3% 35.3% 33.2% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1%
17-3 0.7% 30.9% 29.8% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5%
16-4 1.2% 22.7% 22.7% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.0
15-5 2.3% 17.3% 17.3% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9
14-6 3.6% 13.4% 13.4% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 3.1
13-7 5.1% 9.3% 9.3% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 4.7
12-8 6.4% 8.1% 8.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
11-9 8.2% 3.7% 3.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.9
10-10 9.3% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9.0
9-11 9.6% 1.5% 1.5% 19.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5
8-12 10.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.7
7-13 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 18.3 0.1 9.9
6-14 9.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
5-15 8.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.4
4-16 6.1% 6.1
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 2.9% 2.9
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.4 96.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%