Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +4.1 105
Results Rating +4.7 101
Consistency 0.13 96
Pace 73.6 49
Improvement +1.9 111

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 99 B- B- C D+ C+
Defense C+ 148 C+ C C C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 80 C+ 59% 141 +2.7 88
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 147 C- 36% 235 -0.2 189
Three Pointers 37% 268 B+ 38% 35 -0.1 181
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.2 168 B- +2.0 105
1st FG Attempt B- 1.07 104
Second Chance B 35.7% 40 C- 1.00 220 B- 0.36 83
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.2% 151
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 266
Turnovers C 17.1% 203
Freethrows D+ 0.28 270 C 72% 197 D+ 0.20 266
Total Offense B- +3.2 99

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 51% 141 B+ 7.7% 32
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 29% 125 B- 3.9% 92
Three Pointers C- 81% 252 B- 0.6% 97
Total C 56% 167 B 4.3% 40

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 267 D+ 61% 272 -0.4 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 151 C 38% 170 +0.2 199
Three Pointers 43% 112 B+ 30% 40 -1.3 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.3 121 C+ -1.2 134
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 128
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 149 C- 1.06 226 C 0.31 188
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 120
Other Turnovers D 6.3% 306
Turnovers C 16.7% 190
Freethrows C- 0.32 240 B- 71% 95 C- 0.23 221
Total Defense C+ +0.9 148

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 217 D+ 8.3% 286
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 89 C- 4.1% 215
Three Pointers B- 80% 75 C 1.0% 142
Total C+ 54% 142 D+ 4.3% 293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 64 17.0 129
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 25 0.16 161
Consistency 0.12 157 0.11 77
Improvement +1.1 128 +0.8 141

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 124 107 93
Results Rating Rank 121 103 65
Conference Record 13 - 7 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 2 2 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 12
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28% 29% 24%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 12.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 2% 3% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round28% 29% 24%
Second Round2% 2% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Missouri St. (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 310 - 510 - 9
Quad 410 - 120 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 12 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 6% -8  9% 0 - 1 C +1 A- +11 C A+ D- F+ -9 B- F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 98 @Utah L 79 - 85 35% -9  5% 0 - 2 C+ +2 C+ +3 C D+ B- C -0 C- B+ A
 Wed, Nov 19 101 Wyoming W 78 - 70 58% +3  86% 1 - 2 B +10 C +1 C- B- F A +9 C A+ A
 Wed, Nov 26 249 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 80% +1  61% 2 - 2 C- -2 C +1 D+ A+ D- C- -3 F+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 180 Idaho W 94 - 68 70% +4  56% 3 - 2 A+ +25 A+ +27 A+ A+ A+ C +0 C- C D
 Tue, Dec 2 63 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 23% -0  49% 3 - 3 C+ +2 C+ +2 A F C C+ +1 B- F A-
 Sat, Dec 6 307 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 82% +6  71% 4 - 3 B- +6 D -6 F D+ D A +11 A+ D+ B-
 Wed, Dec 17 156 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 54% +8  97% 5 - 3 B+ +13 B +6 B- B D- B+ +6 C A D
 Sun, Dec 21 177 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 58% -13  3% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D+ -7 D+ -2 D D+ D+ D+ -4 F B- F
 Fri, Jan 2 140 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 49% +1  64% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D+ -7 A- +10 B- B+ B F -16 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 4 160 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 55% -5  20% 5 - 6 0 - 3 C+ +2 D -6 C+ B- F A- +7 C A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 268 Delaware W 72 - 60 89% +7  99% 6 - 6 1 - 3 C+ +3 C -0 D C- A B +4 B+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 10 111 Liberty L 74 - 82 64% -5  8% 6 - 7 1 - 4 D+ -8 D -6 C D F C- -2 C- C+ B+
 Wed, Jan 14 192 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 61% +7  98% 7 - 7 2 - 4 A- +16 A +13 A+ B+ D- B+ +5 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 203 @Florida International W 76 - 63 63% +7  93% 8 - 7 3 - 4 B+ +14 D+ -3 C- D D A+ +16 A+ A A+
 Wed, Jan 21 155 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 75% +5  93% 9 - 7 4 - 4 C+ +3 A- +11 A+ B- A- F+ -8 C D F
 Sat, Jan 24 140 Western Kentucky W 73 - 58 71% +14  93% 10 - 7 5 - 4 B+ +13 C +1 D+ A+ A A+ +13 A- F+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 207 @Missouri St. W 80 - 71 64% +4  87% 11 - 7 6 - 4 B +9 B +6 B- C- D- B- +3 C- F+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 216 Louisiana Tech W 83 - 67 83% +6  92% 12 - 7 7 - 4 B +10 A+ +15 B- A+ A+ D+ -4 A F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 245 UTEP W 70 - 66 86% +4  86% 13 - 7 8 - 4 C- -4 D- -7 F B- C+ B +4 B A F
 Sat, Feb 7 216 @Louisiana Tech L 78 - 87 66% +0  51% 13 - 8 8 - 5 D -9 C +0 B+ D- D- F+ -9 D D+ D-
 Sat, Feb 14 155 @Kennesaw St. W 83 - 79 53% +2  74% 14 - 8 9 - 5 B- +7 A +13 A+ A- C- D -6 D- D+ D-
 Wed, Feb 18 160 Middle Tennessee W 78 - 70 76% +7  98% 15 - 8 10 - 5 C+ +5 C +1 D+ A- B B +4 B+ A F
 Sat, Feb 21 192 Jacksonville St. W 82 - 78 80% +3  63% 16 - 8 11 - 5 C -1 B+ +8 B- B C F+ -9 D- A+ F
 Thu, Feb 26 203 Florida International W 100 - 67 82% +20  99% 17 - 8 12 - 5 A+ +28 A+ +18 A+ B B- A- +8 A+ D B+
 Sat, Feb 28 207 Missouri St. W 81 - 71 82%
 Thu, Mar 5 268 @Delaware W 77 - 70 75%
 Sat, Mar 7 111 @Liberty L 77 - 79 41%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 +4 B- +3 C+ B- C+ C+ +1 B+ C D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ C- B+ B- 42% 40% 37% C+ B- B C- B- C D+ C D+ C+ D+ C B+ C+ 36% 21% 43% C+ C+ C+ C- C C C- B- C-
1.13 59% 36% 38% +2 0 1.07 36% 1.0 .36 17% .28 72% .20 1.07 61% 38% 30% -1 0 0.99 30% 1.1 .31 17% .32 71% .20
Nov
7		 Texas Tech A- D+ F+ A+ B- 28% 43% 28% D- C A+ C+ A+ D- A B- A F+ C D+ D B- 29% 20% 51% C+ B- F C- F C+ F A F
1.09 53% 30% 40% -2 -4 0.91 45% 0.9 .43 20% .35 70% .25 1.39 62% 44% 39% +6 -1 1.13 50% 1.1 .55 16% .72 65% .47
Nov
15		 Utah C+ F B+ B C- 46% 18% 36% B- C C D- D+ B- D- A+ C- C C+ F C- C+ 48% 6% 46% F C- F A+ B+ A F F+ F
1.07 46% 45% 36% -3 +1 0.98 29% 0.8 .24 14% .20 85% .17 1.15 57% 67% 36% +3 +3 1.13 43% 0.6 .24 20% .51 80% .41
Nov
19		 Wyoming C B+ A+ F C+ 32% 23% 45% D- C- B+ D+ B- F A+ A+ A+ A F C- A+ C- 46% 22% 32% B C D+ A+ A+ A F+ A+ A+
1.10 64% 50% 25% -1 -1 0.98 33% 0.9 .30 21% .59 88% .52 0.99 70% 45% 25% +3 0 1.08 39% 0.5 .18 21% .39 41% .16
Nov
26		 Idaho St. C F+ A+ C+ D+ 38% 19% 43% C D+ A+ C- A+ D- A+ C+ A+ C- F F C+ F+ 34% 11% 55% C- F+ C+ A+ A+ A+ F D F
1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37 1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58
Nov
28		 Idaho A+ C C+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% C- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F F F C F F B+ D+ 22% 10% 67% C+ C- B D- C D C+ A+ A
1.48 59% 40% 56% +15 -1 1.30 43% 1.3 .57 9% .16 67% .10 1.07 73% 60% 30% +2 0 1.06 25% 1.1 .28 14% .27 47% .13
Dec
2		 Oklahoma St. C+ B- A+ A A+ 25% 17% 58% D A B- F F C F A+ D- C+ D- B- A+ B- 54% 11% 35% C- B- F F F A- F A- D
1.05 60% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 31% 0.3 .10 18% .17 82% .14 1.18 66% 33% 26% -1 +2 1.06 40% 1.4 .54 19% .44 68% .30
Dec
6		 Texas Southern D D F F F 55% 11% 34% B+ F C+ F+ D+ D A+ C+ A+ A B+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 19% 41% D- A+ D C+ D+ B- F D- F
1.03 55% 17% 22% -10 +2 0.87 35% 0.9 .33 18% .49 72% .35 0.88 50% 18% 21% -15 0 0.73 29% 1.0 .29 19% .44 75% .33
Dec
17		 Oregon St. B C- D B B- 46% 12% 42% B B- A D+ B D- B+ C+ B+ B+ F A+ A+ C 24% 15% 62% C+ C A+ F A D A- B A-
1.14 54% 33% 36% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.9 .38 17% .37 74% .28 1.01 92% 25% 26% -1 0 1.00 11% 1.8 .20 15% .30 74% .22
Dec
21		 New Mexico St. D+ F A+ C F+ 38% 14% 48% B D B+ F D+ D+ B+ F+ C+ D+ C- F D F 41% 23% 36% D- F A+ F B- F A+ C A+
1.05 33% 50% 33% -8 +1 0.88 38% 0.8 .31 16% .42 69% .29 1.17 60% 64% 36% +8 0 1.18 21% 1.3 .27 9% .16 73% .12
Jan
2		 Western Kentucky A- B+ C C+ B- 33% 25% 43% C- B- A C- B+ B F C- F F B A- C- C 35% 13% 53% D+ C- F F F B F C F
1.18 65% 40% 35% +3 -1 1.07 39% 0.9 .34 15% .29 68% .20 1.32 47% 29% 34% -5 +1 0.95 49% 1.5 .73 17% .42 74% .31
Jan
4		 Middle Tennessee D F+ A A+ C+ 51% 27% 22% C- C+ B+ D+ B- F F F F A- A+ C+ F C- 26% 30% 44% A- C A A+ A+ D+ A F B-
0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16 1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15
Jan
8		 Delaware C B+ F C- D 35% 25% 40% C D B+ F C- A B A A- B F A+ A A- 27% 10% 63% D+ B+ B- C+ B- D- B- A+ B+
1.15 67% 15% 33% -3 -1 0.94 37% 0.8 .29 10% .32 89% .28 0.96 69% 20% 29% -4 +1 0.96 17% 0.8 .14 14% .22 67% .15
Jan
10		 Liberty D F A+ A C- 46% 16% 38% B+ C A- F D F C+ B+ B- C- D- F B- C- 58% 6% 36% D C- A+ F C+ B+ F F F
1.04 35% 75% 42% 0 +1 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 22% .25 79% .20 1.15 69% 67% 33% +8 +3 1.24 8% 2.0 .16 17% .39 78% .30
Jan
14		 Jacksonville St. A A+ F A+ A+ 49% 11% 40% B+ A+ C+ A+ B+ D- F F+ F B+ B+ F A B+ 47% 13% 40% C B+ C B C+ D C- B+ C+
1.24 74% 20% 47% +14 +2 1.34 30% 1.3 .39 19% .14 71% .10 1.00 48% 50% 28% -7 +2 0.91 29% 0.9 .26 14% .36 63% .23
Jan
17		 Florida International D+ A+ F D C 29% 20% 51% D C- C- D D D A+ F C+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ 37% 21% 42% B- A+ C A+ A A+ F A- F
1.01 73% 30% 31% 0 -1 1.02 33% 0.9 .30 23% .45 54% .24 0.84 25% 11% 39% -15 0 0.72 32% 0.7 .22 24% .68 62% .42
Jan
21		 Kennesaw St. A- A+ F A+ A+ 41% 23% 36% D+ A+ F+ A+ B- A- F F F F+ D- A+ D C- 33% 21% 47% A- C C- D D F B+ D- B-
1.26 74% 23% 50% +12 0 1.25 22% 1.6 .34 12% .29 63% .19 1.18 63% 17% 37% -1 0 1.00 36% 1.1 .38 11% .29 74% .21
Jan
24		 Western Kentucky C C- C- F D- 49% 16% 35% A D+ C A+ A+ A D- F F A+ A- A+ A- A 37% 14% 49% D+ A- B- F F+ A+ C- C C-
1.09 56% 38% 28% -4 +1 0.96 28% 1.6 .46 13% .34 40% .14 0.87 44% 17% 29% -12 +1 0.79 29% 1.4 .41 28% .33 75% .25
Jan
28		 Missouri St. B A D+ C- B- 43% 33% 24% B- B- B- F+ C- D- C- C C- B- F B+ F D- 27% 43% 31% A+ C- A- F F+ C B- B+ B
1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26 1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19
Jan
31		 Louisiana Tech A+ B C F B- 59% 17% 24% B+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ C+ A A 36% 30% 34% A- A F+ F F C- F C F+
1.28 59% 38% 27% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 9% .61 67% .41 1.03 41% 36% 25% -11 -1 0.77 41% 1.3 .54 18% .36 63% .23
Feb
4		 UTEP D- F+ F F F 47% 16% 37% A- F C+ B B- C+ A+ B+ A+ B B F A+ B- 29% 41% 31% A B A A+ A F B D+ B-
1.00 48% 13% 22% -15 +1 0.73 36% 1.1 .40 17% .47 78% .36 0.95 53% 46% 22% -4 -3 0.88 19% 0.8 .14 9% .22 71% .16
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Louisiana Tech C F B- A+ A 30% 22% 48% D- B+ F A+ D- D- B- C- B- F+ D+ F A+ C- 60% 17% 23% F D F B- D+ D- F F F
1.02 38% 42% 46% +3 -1 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 21% .35 71% .25 1.14 59% 67% 8% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.7 .31 16% .54 74% .40
Feb
14		 Kennesaw St. A A A+ A- A+ 47% 20% 33% C A+ B- A+ A- C- A C- A- D C A+ F F+ 43% 17% 41% C+ D- D+ C- D+ D- A- C B+
1.25 67% 56% 40% +11 +1 1.24 33% 1.2 .41 17% .49 74% .36 1.19 57% 22% 45% +4 +1 1.11 37% 1.0 .37 14% .28 69% .19
Feb
18		 Middle Tennessee C C- F C D- 56% 17% 28% B+ D+ A+ D+ A- B F A+ C- B C- D A+ B+ 31% 28% 41% B B+ A+ A A F B- A+ B+
1.12 57% 11% 33% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.0 .39 13% .25 93% .23 1.01 61% 44% 25% -3 -1 0.93 21% 0.8 .16 9% .24 53% .13
Feb
21		 Jacksonville St. B+ B+ D B B 38% 20% 42% D+ B- B- B- B C A+ B+ A+ F+ F A+ D F 39% 22% 39% A D- A+ A+ A+ F B+ F C+
1.22 65% 33% 37% +3 0 1.09 32% 1.1 .35 16% .50 82% .41 1.16 76% 17% 38% +5 0 1.11 20% 0.7 .13 10% .30 78% .23
Feb
26		 Florida International A+ A B A+ A+ 49% 22% 29% C A+ A- C- B B- A+ A A+ A- D+ C- A+ A+ 27% 38% 35% A+ A+ A+ F D B+ F F F
1.36 71% 45% 64% +21 +1 1.45 43% 1.0 .43 19% .42 80% .34 0.91 62% 39% 12% -11 -3 0.75 22% 1.8 .39 20% .50 76% .38



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 2.2 2.2 1st
2nd 2.5 22.7 47.7 24.3 97.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 0.6 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 3.1 22.7 47.7 26.5 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 8.4% 2.2    2.2
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 2.2% 2.2 2.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 26.5% 32.7% 32.7% 12.3 0.2 6.0 2.4 0.1 17.9
14-6 47.7% 27.7% 27.7% 12.8 0.0 4.4 7.6 1.2 0.0 34.5
13-7 22.7% 25.9% 25.9% 13.0 1.1 3.7 1.0 0.0 16.8
12-8 3.1% 19.9% 19.9% 13.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 2.5
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.4% 28.4% 0.0% 12.7 71.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.7% 100.0% 12.3 2.4 68.9 28.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%
Lose Out 1.1%