Sam Houston St.
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#77
Expected Predictive Rating+8.6#62
Pace63.5#305
Improvement-0.8#284

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#124
First Shot+1.2#133
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#150
Layup/Dunks-1.2#232
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#63
Freethrows-0.7#245
Improvement+0.1#181

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#43
First Shot+6.1#28
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#248
Layups/Dunks+6.0#14
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#204
Freethrows-0.9#257
Improvement-0.9#311
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.9% 39.2% 30.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.6% 6.6% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 34.7% 38.6% 13.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.4% 2.7% 0.6%
First Round36.6% 37.9% 30.0%
Second Round10.1% 10.8% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 2.8% 2.0%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UT Rio Grande Valley (Away) - 84.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 20 - 22 - 4
Quad 38 - 210 - 6
Quad 49 - 119 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 41   @ Oklahoma W 52-51 26%     1 - 0 +14.6 -13.4 +28.1
  Nov 17, 2022 49   @ Utah W 65-55 29%     2 - 0 +22.6 +5.2 +18.2
  Nov 22, 2022 282   Northern Illinois W 88-54 89%     3 - 0 +27.6 +9.4 +17.2
  Nov 23, 2022 275   South Dakota W 80-49 88%     4 - 0 +25.1 +8.5 +19.3
  Nov 28, 2022 62   @ Nevada L 60-78 34%     4 - 1 -6.8 -3.4 -4.5
  Dec 06, 2022 36   @ Oklahoma St. L 51-65 24%     4 - 2 +0.2 -1.7 -0.6
  Dec 14, 2022 267   @ Louisiana Monroe W 79-53 82%     5 - 2 +23.2 +8.4 +15.7
  Dec 17, 2022 210   @ Texas St. W 69-62 73%     6 - 2 +7.7 +5.6 +2.8
  Dec 29, 2022 99   @ Utah Valley L 64-80 48%     6 - 3 0 - 1 -8.6 -5.4 -2.8
  Dec 31, 2022 186   @ New Mexico St. W 75-62 69%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +14.8 +10.2 +6.0
  Jan 05, 2023 118   Grand Canyon L 68-72 OT 75%     7 - 4 1 - 2 -3.9 -12.5 +8.9
  Jan 07, 2023 187   Tarleton St. W 75-68 84%     8 - 4 2 - 2 +3.3 +1.9 +1.4
  Jan 12, 2023 114   @ Southern Utah L 74-86 55%     8 - 5 2 - 3 -6.3 +4.7 -11.3
  Jan 14, 2023 212   @ Utah Tech W 78-53 73%     9 - 5 3 - 3 +25.5 +13.1 +14.5
  Jan 19, 2023 135   Stephen F. Austin W 76-71 77%     10 - 5 4 - 3 +4.4 +4.5 +0.0
  Jan 21, 2023 287   UT Rio Grande Valley W 83-64 93%     11 - 5 5 - 3 +9.6 +4.5 +5.1
  Jan 26, 2023 125   Seattle W 55-40 76%     12 - 5 6 - 3 +14.8 -6.9 +24.0
  Feb 01, 2023 287   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-66 85%    
  Feb 04, 2023 272   @ Texas Arlington W 68-58 83%    
  Feb 11, 2023 229   @ Abilene Christian W 72-64 75%    
  Feb 15, 2023 272   Texas Arlington W 70-55 93%    
  Feb 18, 2023 187   @ Tarleton St. W 67-62 68%    
  Feb 23, 2023 156   California Baptist W 66-57 81%    
  Feb 25, 2023 114   Southern Utah W 74-67 73%    
  Mar 01, 2023 135   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 03, 2023 229   Abilene Christian W 75-62 89%    
Projected Record 19 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 5.7 17.1 11.8 34.7 1st
2nd 0.0 3.0 13.6 9.6 0.8 27.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.8 7.7 0.8 17.1 3rd
4th 0.2 3.0 6.2 1.3 10.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.9 1.8 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 3.0 8.8 19.1 28.4 27.5 12.6 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 93.5% 11.8    8.7 3.0 0.2
14-4 62.1% 17.1    5.7 7.9 3.1 0.4 0.0
13-5 19.9% 5.7    0.7 1.7 2.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 34.7% 34.7 15.1 12.6 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 12.6% 65.9% 43.7% 22.2% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 3.8 0.3 4.3 39.5%
14-4 27.5% 42.6% 39.8% 2.9% 11.4 0.4 6.1 5.0 0.2 15.8 4.8%
13-5 28.4% 33.7% 33.3% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 2.6 6.2 0.7 0.0 18.8 0.5%
12-6 19.1% 28.3% 28.3% 12.1 0.0 0.6 3.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 13.7
11-7 8.8% 24.0% 24.0% 12.4 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.0 6.7
10-8 3.0% 20.2% 20.2% 12.7 0.2 0.4 0.0 2.4
9-9 0.5% 18.9% 18.9% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
8-10 0.0% 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.9% 34.2% 3.7% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.7 13.2 16.7 3.1 0.1 0.0 62.2 5.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.6% 65.9% 10.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 4.1 8.9 17.9 30.1 2.2