Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#126
Expected Predictive Rating-4.3#241
Pace73.0#87
Improvement+0.8#111

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#138
First Shot+4.1#62
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#332
Layup/Dunks+4.3#54
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#140
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#208
Freethrows+0.3#159
Improvement+0.2#145

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#121
First Shot+0.9#139
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#136
Layups/Dunks+3.8#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#130
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#329
Freethrows+1.0#136
Improvement+0.6#122
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 10.0% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 14.0
.500 or above 72.8% 79.3% 58.0%
.500 or above in Conference 80.5% 82.9% 74.8%
Conference Champion 12.7% 14.5% 8.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.8% 1.8%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round8.8% 9.9% 6.3%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 57 - 11
Quad 411 - 217 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 79-74 95%     1 - 0 -10.7 -8.7 -2.6
  Nov 12, 2021 94   Minnesota L 69-73 38%     1 - 1 +1.8 +1.9 -0.1
  Nov 14, 2021 98   South Carolina L 64-75 41%     1 - 2 -6.0 -9.6 +4.6
  Nov 19, 2021 23   @ Memphis L 62-74 10%     1 - 3 +4.8 -7.2 +13.3
  Nov 24, 2021 342   Alabama A&M W 88-62 95%     2 - 3 +10.0 +5.8 +2.9
  Nov 27, 2021 346   Tennessee Martin W 81-66 95%     3 - 3 -1.5 -2.1 +0.4
  Dec 04, 2021 160   Eastern Kentucky W 84-79 69%    
  Dec 08, 2021 72   Buffalo L 80-81 45%    
  Dec 11, 2021 69   Mississippi L 65-70 33%    
  Dec 18, 2021 36   Louisville L 67-73 30%    
  Dec 22, 2021 259   @ Austin Peay W 73-68 69%    
  Dec 30, 2021 247   @ Southern Miss W 71-67 65%    
  Jan 01, 2022 109   @ Louisiana Tech L 74-78 34%    
  Jan 08, 2022 226   Florida International W 73-65 77%    
  Jan 13, 2022 184   Rice W 81-74 72%    
  Jan 15, 2022 108   North Texas W 64-63 55%    
  Jan 20, 2022 221   @ Florida Atlantic W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 22, 2022 226   @ Florida International W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 27, 2022 51   UAB L 70-73 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 183   Middle Tennessee W 75-68 71%    
  Feb 03, 2022 223   @ Charlotte W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 05, 2022 228   @ Old Dominion W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 10, 2022 221   Florida Atlantic W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 13, 2022 300   @ Texas San Antonio W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 17, 2022 223   Charlotte W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 19, 2022 228   Old Dominion W 70-61 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 183   @ Middle Tennessee W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 02, 2022 114   @ Marshall L 79-83 37%    
  Mar 05, 2022 114   Marshall W 82-80 57%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.2 4.0 2.9 1.0 0.3 12.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 4.7 2.0 0.4 14.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 5.2 4.2 1.4 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 5.0 4.3 1.0 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.3 3.4 4.2 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.7 0.2 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.1 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.5 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 1.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.1 5.6 7.5 10.9 12.7 13.0 12.7 11.1 9.3 6.1 3.3 1.0 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.0    0.9 0.1
16-2 87.4% 2.9    2.2 0.6 0.0
15-3 66.1% 4.0    2.3 1.5 0.3 0.0
14-4 34.0% 3.2    1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
13-5 10.0% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 12.7% 12.7 7.1 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 68.0% 48.5% 19.5% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 37.9%
17-1 1.0% 29.0% 26.2% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.7%
16-2 3.3% 32.5% 31.2% 1.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 2.2 2.0%
15-3 6.1% 20.7% 20.7% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.8
14-4 9.3% 18.6% 18.6% 13.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.1 7.6
13-5 11.1% 15.4% 15.4% 13.8 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.4
12-6 12.7% 7.0% 7.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.8
11-7 13.0% 6.2% 6.2% 14.5 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.0 12.2
10-8 12.7% 3.3% 3.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 12.2
9-9 10.9% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 10.6
8-10 7.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.4
7-11 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.6
6-12 3.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.1
5-13 2.1% 2.1
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.2% 0.2
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 8.8% 8.7% 0.1% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.6 2.2 1.6 0.3 91.2 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 67.7 32.3