Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#115
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#135
Pace84.3#1
Improvement+1.4#92

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#176
First Shot+0.7#157
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#227
Layup/Dunks-1.0#212
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#245
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#222
Freethrows+4.4#15
Improvement+1.0#102

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#85
First Shot+4.6#54
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#264
Layups/Dunks+4.7#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#256
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#52
Freethrows-3.3#337
Improvement+0.3#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.2% 14.7% 10.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.5 12.9
.500 or above 73.5% 80.5% 59.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.1% 78.4% 68.4%
Conference Champion 15.1% 17.1% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.4% 4.5%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round13.1% 14.7% 9.9%
Second Round2.2% 2.6% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Evansville (Away) - 66.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 38 - 59 - 12
Quad 48 - 117 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 94   Wichita St. L 84-91 53%     0 - 1 -4.4 +0.7 -4.0
  Nov 09, 2024 100   @ Grand Canyon L 72-74 32%     0 - 2 +6.2 -2.9 +9.2
  Nov 17, 2024 105   Lipscomb W 66-61 59%     1 - 2 +6.1 -10.5 +16.2
  Nov 20, 2024 315   Jackson St. W 79-62 91%     2 - 2 +5.6 -0.8 +5.6
  Nov 26, 2024 9   @ Kentucky L 68-87 6%     2 - 3 +1.7 -2.8 +6.4
  Nov 30, 2024 195   Marshall W 90-82 77%     3 - 3 +3.5 +5.0 -2.4
  Dec 07, 2024 243   @ Evansville W 80-75 67%    
  Dec 10, 2024 318   Tennessee St. W 89-74 92%    
  Dec 14, 2024 117   Murray St. W 76-73 62%    
  Dec 17, 2024 123   Seattle W 78-74 65%    
  Dec 29, 2024 16   @ Michigan L 69-84 9%    
  Jan 02, 2025 70   @ Liberty L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 04, 2025 253   @ Florida International W 81-76 68%    
  Jan 09, 2025 174   Jacksonville St. W 78-71 74%    
  Jan 11, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 87-82 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 77-78 45%    
  Jan 23, 2025 103   @ Louisiana Tech L 73-77 35%    
  Jan 25, 2025 139   @ Sam Houston St. L 80-81 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 158   UTEP W 80-74 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 218   New Mexico St. W 79-70 80%    
  Feb 06, 2025 146   @ Kennesaw St. L 84-85 48%    
  Feb 08, 2025 174   @ Jacksonville St. W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 15, 2025 128   Middle Tennessee W 80-75 66%    
  Feb 20, 2025 139   Sam Houston St. W 83-78 67%    
  Feb 22, 2025 103   Louisiana Tech W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 27, 2025 158   @ UTEP W 77-76 50%    
  Mar 01, 2025 218   @ New Mexico St. W 76-73 62%    
  Mar 06, 2025 253   Florida International W 84-73 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 70   Liberty L 70-72 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 4.2 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.2 15.1 1st
2nd 0.4 2.6 5.5 5.5 2.9 0.7 0.1 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.1 6.5 4.9 1.4 0.1 16.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.8 5.8 3.8 0.7 0.0 13.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.1 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.8 8.9 11.9 12.9 13.5 12.2 10.0 7.2 4.4 2.1 0.8 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
16-2 97.0% 2.0    1.8 0.2
15-3 83.3% 3.7    2.8 0.8 0.0
14-4 58.0% 4.2    2.3 1.6 0.2
13-5 31.8% 3.2    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
12-6 8.5% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.2 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 56.3% 48.3% 8.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15.6%
17-1 0.8% 42.3% 39.9% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 4.0%
16-2 2.1% 43.6% 43.6% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.2
15-3 4.4% 33.7% 33.5% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.1 2.9 0.3%
14-4 7.2% 26.3% 26.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 5.3
13-5 10.0% 21.0% 21.0% 12.3 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 7.9
12-6 12.2% 16.5% 16.5% 12.6 0.0 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0 10.2
11-7 13.5% 11.4% 11.4% 12.9 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.9
10-8 12.9% 9.4% 9.4% 13.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 11.7
9-9 11.9% 7.2% 7.2% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.1
8-10 8.9% 5.1% 5.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.5
7-11 6.8% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6
6-12 4.6% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.5
5-13 2.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 2.5
4-14 1.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 1.2
3-15 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.2% 13.1% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 6.2 3.6 1.3 0.7 0.3 86.8 0.0%