Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.1 #157
Expected Predictive Rating +0.6 #152
Pace 73.8 #51
Improvement -3.4 #315

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #214 D C B C C
Defense #120 C- B+ C+ D B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #151 0.91 #362 -4.4 #326
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.72 #241 -0.6 #215
Three Pointers 41% #191 1.00 #199 -0.4 #202
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #331 -5.4 #331
Freethrows 0.30 #200 73% #174 0.22 #186
Second Chance 33.1% #112 0.95 #285 0.31 #173
Turnovers 14.7% #48
Total Offense -1.8 #214

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 1.09 #90 +5.0 #40
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #108 0.84 #308 -1.6 #302
Three Pointers 46% #51 1.10 #293 -4.3 #336
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #214 -1.0 #212
Freethrows 0.38 #343 69% #32 0.26 #322
Second Chance 27.9% #80 0.84 #12 0.23 #25
Turnovers 17.8% #127
Total Defense +1.7 #120

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #170 -1.4% #64
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.0% #340 3.4% #246
Possession Length 16.6 #112 17.0 #141
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #174 0.12 #36
Improvement -4.1 #348 +0.8 #141

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.6% 6.1% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.3
.500 or above 69.9% 78.6% 51.0%
.500 or above in Conference 66.8% 76.1% 46.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round5.6% 6.1% 4.4%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville St. (Home) - 68.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 51 - 6
Quad 34 - 75 - 13
Quad 411 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 322 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 88% +9  1 - 0 -1 -4 F B C+ +2 D+ D+ A
 Mon, Nov 10 267 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 61% -0  2 - 0 +5 +3 C- F A+ +1 F A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 242 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 76% +9  3 - 0 +5 +9 C- B A+ -5 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 13 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 5% -6  3 - 1 +14 +3 B- D+ C- +11 B A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 72 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 22% +5  3 - 2 +2 +0 C C+ C- +3 B- A+ C
 Fri, Nov 28 99 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 32% +1  4 - 2 +10 +12 C+ C- A+ -2 C A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Evansville W 80 - 79 80% +3  5 - 2 -8 +2 C D D+ -10 F+ C C+
 Wed, Dec 10 153 @Marshall L 61 - 77 38% -7  5 - 3 -13 -9 F+ F C+ -4 B- C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 69 Tulsa L 81 - 82 31% +3  5 - 4 +4 +5 C- B- A+ -1 C A+ D
 Mon, Dec 29 192 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 46% -12  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -3 F D+ C+ -7 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 109 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 47% -1  6 - 5 1 - 1 +12 +19 C- A+ B- -8 C C+ D+
 Sun, Jan 4 218 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 72% +7  7 - 5 2 - 1 -1 -2 F C+ B +1 B C F+
 Thu, Jan 8 167 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 41% -16  7 - 6 2 - 2 -14 -5 F B+ A+ -10 C F+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 258 @UTEP W 68 - 56 59% +0  8 - 6 3 - 2 +10 -2 D- D A +12 A- A+ A
 Wed, Jan 14 183 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 67% +6  9 - 6 4 - 2 +10 +17 B- A+ A+ -6 B- D- C
 Sat, Jan 17 143 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 57% -5  9 - 7 4 - 3 -18 -11 F F A+ -6 D A+ D
 Wed, Jan 21 89 Liberty L 69 - 76 38% -5  9 - 8 4 - 4 -4 +1 C- C+ D+ -5 D+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 109 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 26% -14  9 - 9 4 - 5 -8 -10 F B+ F +1 B F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 28 143 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 72 34% +0  9 - 10 4 - 6 +1 -3 F B A- +4 C- A- B-
 Sat, Jan 31 155 @Middle Tennessee W 65 - 60 38% +1  10 - 10 5 - 6 +8 -1 C F A- +9 B- A B-
 Thu, Feb 5 192 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 68 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 188 Florida International W 82 - 77 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 155 Middle Tennessee W 73 - 70 62%
 Wed, Feb 18 288 @Delaware W 71 - 67 66%
 Sat, Feb 21 89 @Liberty L 69 - 78 19%
 Thu, Feb 26 167 New Mexico St. W 76 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 UTEP W 75 - 67 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 183 @Missouri St. L 71 - 73 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 188 @Florida International L 79 - 80 46%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 +0 -2 D C B +2 C- B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 2.2 0.6 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.2 7.4 2.4 0.2 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.6 4.5 0.2 16.0 4th
5th 0.5 8.0 7.5 0.5 0.0 16.6 5th
6th 0.1 3.9 10.3 1.9 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 8.7 4.1 0.2 14.5 7th
8th 0.4 4.3 4.7 0.3 9.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.5 0.5 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 2.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.8 10.3 18.2 24.6 22.4 14.0 4.9 0.8 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 6.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.8% 20.0% 20.0% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
13-7 4.9% 14.9% 14.9% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.2
12-8 14.0% 10.2% 10.2% 13.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 12.6
11-9 22.4% 7.0% 7.0% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 20.9
10-10 24.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 23.7
9-11 18.2% 2.4% 2.4% 14.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 17.8
8-12 10.3% 2.9% 2.9% 15.5 0.2 0.1 10.0
7-13 3.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-14 0.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 13.8 94.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%