Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#241
Expected Predictive Rating-10.1#312
Pace61.3#354
Improvement-0.2#195

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#264
First Shot-2.6#250
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#224
Layup/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#319
Freethrows+4.4#12
Improvement+0.4#138

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#206
First Shot+1.8#115
After Offensive Rebounds-2.9#330
Layups/Dunks+1.2#131
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.8#361
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#28
Freethrows+1.0#120
Improvement-0.7#251
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 3.6% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 13.9 14.7
.500 or above 15.6% 34.8% 13.4%
.500 or above in Conference 25.9% 40.6% 24.2%
Conference Champion 1.2% 2.7% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 21.6% 11.8% 22.7%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round1.5% 3.5% 1.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Away) - 10.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 33 - 84 - 13
Quad 47 - 611 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 167 Arkansas St. L 85-86 48%     0 - 1 -5.0 -0.1 -4.8
  Sat, Nov 15 184 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 28%     0 - 2 -16.7 -20.1 +3.0
  Sat, Nov 22 203 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 54%     1 - 2 +1.4 +5.5 -3.4
  Mon, Nov 24 233 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 60%     1 - 3 -21.2 -7.0 -15.8
  Sat, Dec 6 91 @Tulsa L 61-74 10%    
  Fri, Dec 12 79 @Xavier L 61-76 8%    
  Tue, Dec 16 295 Oral Roberts W 75-69 71%    
  Tue, Dec 23 307 Lindenwood W 71-65 72%    
  Mon, Dec 29 242 @Delaware L 65-68 39%    
  Fri, Jan 2 234 UTEP W 64-61 60%    
  Sun, Jan 4 111 New Mexico St. L 61-66 31%    
  Wed, Jan 7 164 @Kennesaw St. L 70-77 27%    
  Sat, Jan 10 217 Florida International W 69-67 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 123 @Western Kentucky L 66-76 18%    
  Sat, Jan 17 149 @Middle Tennessee L 65-73 25%    
  Thu, Jan 22 111 @New Mexico St. L 58-69 16%    
  Sat, Jan 24 234 @UTEP L 61-64 39%    
  Wed, Jan 28 140 Sam Houston St. L 68-71 40%    
  Sat, Jan 31 225 Jacksonville St. W 63-61 57%    
  Sat, Feb 7 96 @Liberty L 61-74 13%    
  Thu, Feb 12 193 Louisiana Tech W 62-61 52%    
  Sat, Feb 14 242 Delaware W 68-65 61%    
  Wed, Feb 18 164 Kennesaw St. L 73-74 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 217 @Florida International L 66-70 36%    
  Thu, Feb 26 193 @Louisiana Tech L 59-64 32%    
  Sat, Feb 28 140 @Sam Houston St. L 65-74 22%    
  Thu, Mar 5 123 Western Kentucky L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Mar 7 149 Middle Tennessee L 68-70 44%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.8 1.0 0.1 6.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 3.5 1.4 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.4 1.9 0.2 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.1 2.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.3 3.5 0.5 0.0 12.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 2.8 5.1 3.4 0.7 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.6 4.8 3.0 0.8 0.0 13.7 11th
12th 0.3 1.2 2.9 3.9 3.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 14.5 12th
Total 0.3 1.2 3.1 5.3 7.9 10.0 11.5 12.3 12.1 10.5 8.2 6.6 4.5 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 88.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
17-3 82.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 67.9% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 37.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.2% 17.6% 17.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 21.4% 21.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 0.9% 11.0% 11.0% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
14-6 1.8% 10.5% 10.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
13-7 3.1% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.9
12-8 4.5% 4.9% 4.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.3
11-9 6.6% 3.7% 3.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.3
10-10 8.2% 2.1% 2.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.1
9-11 10.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.4
8-12 12.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 12.0
7-13 12.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.3
6-14 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.4
5-15 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.0
4-16 7.9% 7.9
3-17 5.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.3
2-18 3.1% 3.1
1-19 1.2% 1.2
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 98.4 0.0%