Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.6#165
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#136
Pace67.0#237
Improvement-2.2#313

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#232
First Shot-5.2#316
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#46
Layup/Dunks-5.3#334
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#196
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#256
Freethrows+3.1#50
Improvement-1.2#274

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#117
First Shot+3.6#74
After Offensive Rebounds-1.8#300
Layups/Dunks-3.7#307
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#249
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#12
Freethrows+0.9#125
Improvement-1.0#271
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.9% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 47.1% 55.6% 32.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.4% 58.4% 33.6%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.0% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 6.8% 3.8% 12.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round3.2% 3.8% 1.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Home) - 63.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 36 - 77 - 13
Quad 48 - 215 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 54   @ Butler L 65-72 11%     0 - 1 +5.7 +0.4 +5.0
  Nov 16, 2024 225   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 72%     1 - 1 -1.6 -0.3 -2.9
  Nov 19, 2024 161   Texas Arlington W 78-68 61%     2 - 1 +6.7 +0.9 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2024 141   High Point W 71-61 44%     3 - 1 +11.1 -2.0 +13.6
  Nov 25, 2024 145   Boston College L 74-76 OT 44%     3 - 2 -1.1 +0.3 -1.3
  Nov 26, 2024 120   South Dakota St. L 55-75 38%     3 - 3 -17.5 -13.0 -5.8
  Dec 01, 2024 261   @ Oral Roberts W 72-67 58%     4 - 3 +2.4 +2.7 +0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 191   Indiana St. W 78-74 64%    
  Dec 14, 2024 74   @ Washington St. L 65-76 15%    
  Dec 22, 2024 126   UC Santa Barbara W 71-70 52%    
  Dec 29, 2024 243   @ Evansville W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 01, 2025 247   Valparaiso W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 71   @ Bradley L 64-76 14%    
  Jan 07, 2025 217   Illinois-Chicago W 75-69 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 169   @ Southern Illinois L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 15, 2025 169   Southern Illinois W 70-67 61%    
  Jan 18, 2025 170   @ Illinois St. L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 21, 2025 113   @ Northern Iowa L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 25, 2025 73   Drake L 61-66 32%    
  Jan 29, 2025 191   @ Indiana St. L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 117   Murray St. L 66-67 49%    
  Feb 05, 2025 113   Northern Iowa L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 132   @ Belmont L 72-77 33%    
  Feb 12, 2025 243   Evansville W 73-66 73%    
  Feb 16, 2025 217   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 19, 2025 247   @ Valparaiso W 71-70 54%    
  Feb 22, 2025 170   Illinois St. W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 26, 2025 132   Belmont W 75-74 53%    
  Mar 02, 2025 73   @ Drake L 58-69 17%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 4.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.5 5.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.5 2.4 0.2 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.1 2.6 0.3 10.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 2.6 0.4 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 3.3 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 5.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.6 7.1 9.8 11.6 12.8 12.7 10.9 9.0 7.1 4.9 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 92.7% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 75.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 47.6% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.3% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 20.7% 18.3% 2.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.0%
17-3 0.6% 21.7% 21.7% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.4% 16.2% 16.2% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1
15-5 2.7% 13.1% 13.1% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4
14-6 4.9% 9.8% 9.8% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 4.4
13-7 7.1% 8.3% 8.3% 13.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.5
12-8 9.0% 5.3% 5.3% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.6
11-9 10.9% 3.0% 3.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.5
10-10 12.7% 2.2% 2.2% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.4
9-11 12.8% 1.2% 1.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.6
8-12 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6
7-13 9.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 9.8
6-14 7.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-15 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.6
4-16 2.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18 0.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.5
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 96.8 0.0%