Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.3 221
Expected Predictive Rating -2.4 208
Pace 61.5 347
Improvement +2.6 78

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #284 D- C- C- D C
Defense C+ #136 B- D+ C+ C- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 50 50% 342 -0.4 191
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 118 38% 170 +1.2 106
Three Pointers 33% 332 28% 355 -6.8 349
1st FG Attempt 0.90 344 -6.0 338
Second Chance 35.1% 57 0.83 358 0.29 227
Turnovers 18.0% 246
Freethrows 0.29 247 65% 360 0.18 318
Total Offense -4.3 284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 237 51% 35 +3.6 66
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 333 38% 169 +2.0 38
Three Pointers 48% 23 33% 135 -2.9 303
1st FG Attempt 0.96 88 +2.7 89
Second Chance 32.6% 269 1.09 276 0.35 288
Turnovers 17.5% 146
Freethrows 0.33 254 72% 193 0.24 251
Total Defense +1.1 136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.0 188 +0.5 267
Shot Type Accuracy -6.1 346 -3.1 58
Possession Length 18.6 308 17.9 289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 207 0.14 87
Improvement +4.1 #15 -1.5 #275

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 3.4% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.3
.500 or above 32.7% 54.4% 22.9%
.500 or above in Conference 40.9% 64.6% 30.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.3% 2.4%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.9% 3.3% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 31.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 12
Quad 411 - 414 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 67 @Nevada L 50 - 77 9% -16  1% 0 - 1 F+ -16 F -15 F D F+ D+ -4 B F B+
 Sat, Nov 15 345 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 86% +3  59% 1 - 1 C+ +2 F -14 F D+ F+ A+ +17 A+ C- B-
 Wed, Nov 19 198 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 36% -5  1% 1 - 2 D -8 F -25 F D- D+ A+ +16 A+ A- D+
 Wed, Nov 26 198 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 59% +1  57% 2 - 2 C- -3 C +0 C A+ F D+ -4 D+ B+ F+
 Sat, Nov 29 351 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 88% +10  98% 3 - 2 B +9 B+ +8 C- A- A B- +4 B C+ C+
 Wed, Dec 3 265 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 48% -4  17% 3 - 3 D -11 D- -6 B- F B D+ -5 F F+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 289 Louisiana W 65 - 44 75% +11  92% 4 - 3 B +11 D+ -4 F+ B+ F A+ +17 A- A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 182 @Tulane L 53 - 61 32% -6  4% 4 - 4 D+ -6 F -11 F F+ F B- +3 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 249 UTEP W 75 - 63 67% +11  97% 5 - 4 1 - 0 C+ +4 B- +4 A- F A C+ +1 A F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 172 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 30% -19  2% 5 - 5 1 - 1 F -35 F -13 D- D F F -30 F B+ F+
 Sun, Jan 4 159 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 28% -7  0% 5 - 6 1 - 2 C- -2 D- -6 F B- A B- +4 A F+ C+
 Thu, Jan 8 92 Liberty L 56 - 72 29% -8  2% 5 - 7 1 - 3 D- -14 F -13 D- F A C- -3 A F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 281 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 74% -5  3% 6 - 7 2 - 3 D+ -8 D- -6 F C+ C- C -2 C+ F C
 Wed, Jan 14 172 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 52% -10  6% 7 - 7 3 - 3 C- -3 F -13 F F+ A A +10 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 176 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 31% -10  0% 7 - 8 3 - 4 C- -2 C- -1 D- B+ C- C- -2 C D+ C+
 Fri, Jan 23 152 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 76 49% -2  31% 8 - 8 4 - 4 C+ +3 A- +10 A A D+ D -7 C+ D D-
 Wed, Jan 28 249 @UTEP W 69 - 59 45% +6  77% 9 - 8 5 - 4 B +8 C +0 C C F A- +9 A B C
 Sat, Jan 31 120 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 83 20% -6  1% 9 - 9 5 - 5 D -10 C- -1 F A+ C- F+ -11 C+ F F
 Wed, Feb 4 165 New Mexico St. L 63 - 72 51% -2  14% 9 - 10 5 - 6 D- -13 F+ -9 D+ D+ F D+ -4 F C A-
 Sat, Feb 7 120 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 39% -0  35% 10 - 10 6 - 6 B +9 B- +4 C C- B- B +4 C- A- B+
 Thu, Feb 12 179 @Missouri St. L 63 - 68 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 187 @Florida International L 69 - 73 34%
 Wed, Feb 18 176 Jacksonville St. W 64 - 63 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 152 @Kennesaw St. L 69 - 75 28%
 Thu, Feb 26 179 Missouri St. W 66 - 65 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 187 Florida International W 72 - 70 56%
 Thu, Mar 5 92 @Liberty L 61 - 73 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 281 @Delaware W 64 - 63 52%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -3 D+ -4 D- C- C- C+ +1 B- D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D- C F+ F+ 44% 23% 33% C D- B F C- C- C- F D C+ B+ C C+ B 37% 15% 48% D+ B- D+ D+ D+ C+ C- C C-
1.02 50% 38% 28% -6 0 0.90 35% 0.8 .29 18% .29 65% .18 1.07 51% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.96 33% 1.1 .35 17% .33 72% .21
Nov
4		 Nevada F C- F F F 43% 9% 48% A- F D D+ D F+ C+ F+ C- D+ A- F B+ B- 30% 33% 37% A- B F F+ F B+ F C+ F
0.80 53% 25% 14% -18 +2 0.70 22% 1.1 .25 21% .34 65% .22 1.23 46% 50% 31% -1 -2 0.95 49% 1.2 .60 16% .53 75% .40
Nov
15		 Jackson St. F F F F F 63% 12% 26% A F A F D+ F+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 33% 7% 61% F A+ B- F C- B- D- C D
0.99 48% 0% 27% -13 +3 0.81 46% 0.7 .34 19% .56 58% .32 0.75 27% 0% 21% -24 +1 0.57 23% 1.2 .27 20% .31 76% .24
Nov
19		 Indiana St. F F F F F 46% 30% 24% C- F D+ F+ D- D+ A F C A+ A+ A+ B A+ 34% 2% 64% C A+ A C+ A- D+ B+ F+ B-
0.71 28% 31% 15% -23 -1 0.56 29% 0.8 .23 17% .34 55% .18 0.84 39% 0% 29% -12 +2 0.83 17% 1.0 .17 17% .20 75% .15
Nov
26		 Indiana St. C C A+ F C+ 43% 33% 24% D C B- A+ A+ F F A+ F D+ F A+ A D+ 54% 8% 38% D D+ A+ F B+ F+ A- F C+
1.11 57% 56% 23% +1 -1 1.02 37% 1.5 .53 19% .13 86% .11 1.08 79% 0% 25% +3 +3 1.13 15% 1.3 .19 15% .17 90% .16
Nov
29		 Alcorn St. B+ C+ D- A C 44% 23% 33% D- C- A C- A- A F F F B- A C- D+ B+ 51% 24% 24% D- B F A+ C+ C+ F A+ D
1.31 65% 33% 41% +6 0 1.13 48% 1.2 .58 13% .16 56% .09 0.92 43% 36% 36% -7 0 0.89 38% 0.5 .19 21% .42 48% .20
Dec
3		 Georgia Southern D- B- A+ D- B- 45% 14% 41% C+ B- F F F B D- F F D+ F F B+ F 35% 6% 59% D+ F C+ F F+ C+ B- F+ C
1.03 64% 71% 30% +5 +1 1.14 23% 0.6 .13 16% .30 53% .16 1.15 76% 67% 28% +3 +2 1.10 27% 1.5 .40 16% .32 78% .25
Dec
13		 Louisiana D+ C F F F 52% 12% 36% B F+ A C- B+ F B A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ C A 26% 26% 49% D A- F A+ A A+ F+ A+ C
1.08 59% 20% 27% -5 +2 0.95 43% 1.0 .43 25% .42 84% .35 0.73 27% 36% 33% -9 -2 0.81 34% 0.3 .11 27% .29 54% .16
Dec
17		 Tulane F F B F F 51% 16% 33% A- F A+ F F+ F A- A A B- B- F A+ A+ 28% 13% 59% C- A+ F F+ F D F C F
0.90 43% 43% 13% -17 +2 0.71 46% 0.5 .22 22% .39 78% .31 1.04 55% 80% 13% -14 0 0.74 29% 1.3 .38 12% .60 77% .46
Dec
29		 UTEP B- F A+ A+ A- 36% 17% 48% B- A- C- F F A A+ F A C+ A+ B A- A 17% 22% 61% C- A F D- F A+ D- F F
1.17 27% 57% 55% +7 0 1.17 32% 0.4 .14 14% .61 59% .36 0.98 38% 30% 29% -10 -2 0.78 42% 1.1 .47 23% .32 81% .26
Jan
2		 Middle Tennessee F C A- F D- 37% 24% 39% D+ D- C F D F A+ F+ B+ F F A+ F F 13% 8% 79% C- F D+ A+ B+ F+ A+ A+ A+
0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 -1 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29 1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04
Jan
4		 Western Kentucky D- D F+ F F 31% 37% 31% F+ F B C B- A D F F B- A+ A A A+ 23% 9% 68% C- A B+ F F+ C+ F F+ F
0.94 50% 32% 25% -9 -3 0.78 33% 0.9 .29 14% .34 47% .16 1.02 30% 25% 27% -15 0 0.73 28% 1.5 .40 15% .45 80% .36
Jan
8		 Liberty F F D A D- 34% 22% 44% C- D- D- F F A D+ F F C- B A+ C- A 46% 8% 46% B- A F D- F D+ D F F+
0.92 29% 36% 41% -5 -1 0.90 26% 0.5 .14 13% .21 45% .09 1.18 55% 25% 36% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.1 .32 11% .30 81% .24
Jan
10		 Delaware D- C F F+ F 36% 34% 30% D F B- C- C+ C- A+ F A+ C A- D D- C+ 36% 15% 49% D C+ C F F C D C+ D+
1.06 59% 25% 29% -6 -2 0.85 33% 0.9 .31 15% .53 63% .34 1.03 47% 43% 39% +1 +1 1.04 20% 1.5 .30 18% .28 73% .20
Jan
14		 Middle Tennessee F F C+ F F 65% 15% 19% A F D+ F F+ A B+ C+ B+ A A+ A+ C- A+ 47% 16% 38% F A+ D- F F A- F A+ C
0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28 0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17
Jan
17		 Jacksonville St. C- F+ A- F D 40% 31% 29% D- D- A+ F+ B+ C- D A+ C C- B A+ F C 45% 9% 45% C- C C D- D+ C+ C F D
1.03 47% 46% 25% -6 -1 0.88 44% 0.9 .38 17% .27 92% .25 1.10 50% 0% 40% -3 +2 1.00 30% 1.1 .33 19% .38 78% .30
Jan
23		 Kennesaw St. A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 22% 30% C A A B- A D+ B F C D A+ F D+ C+ 43% 15% 43% C C+ C- D- D D- F C F
1.25 50% 60% 50% +8 +1 1.20 39% 1.1 .43 17% .44 67% .29 1.16 40% 57% 35% -4 +1 0.96 36% 1.1 .39 14% .58 70% .41
Jan
28		 UTEP C F A+ A C+ 38% 30% 32% D+ C B+ F+ C F C- B C+ A- A+ A+ C A+ 29% 27% 44% D+ A B- B+ B C F F F
1.07 39% 57% 40% +1 -1 1.02 41% 0.8 .34 25% .37 78% .29 0.91 43% 15% 33% -11 -2 0.77 24% 0.9 .22 17% .35 89% .32
Jan
31		 Sam Houston St. C- F D+ F F 36% 30% 34% D- F A A+ A+ C- B- F C F+ C- C A B- 59% 17% 24% F C+ D F F F F B F
1.03 41% 36% 25% -11 -1 0.77 41% 1.3 .54 18% .36 63% .23 1.28 59% 38% 27% -2 +2 1.02 39% 1.3 .52 9% .61 67% .41
Feb
4		 New Mexico St. F+ B F C+ D+ 31% 24% 44% C- D+ A+ F D+ F A+ F D+ D+ C F F F 42% 22% 36% F F D B C A- C B+ C+
0.99 64% 9% 35% -4 -1 0.91 48% 0.6 .30 20% .50 56% .28 1.13 58% 50% 44% +8 0 1.18 37% 0.8 .30 19% .29 67% .19
Feb
7		 Sam Houston St. B- C A+ F C- 60% 17% 23% A C A+ F C- B- A+ B A+ B A+ D F D+ 30% 22% 48% B+ C- A+ F A- B+ F C F+
1.14 59% 67% 8% -3 +2 1.00 43% 0.7 .31 16% .54 74% .40 1.02 38% 42% 46% +4 -1 1.07 18% 1.5 .26 21% .35 71% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.9 0.1 2.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.2 2.6 0.3 6.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 5.6 1.0 0.0 9.2 4th
5th 1.4 9.1 3.2 0.1 13.7 5th
6th 0.3 7.6 8.0 0.4 16.3 6th
7th 0.1 3.4 12.6 2.1 0.0 18.2 7th
8th 1.0 8.9 5.0 0.1 15.0 8th
9th 0.2 4.0 6.3 0.3 10.8 9th
10th 0.9 3.8 1.2 5.9 10th
11th 0.9 0.9 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.2 0.1 0.3 12th
Total 2.3 9.8 20.1 26.9 21.9 12.7 5.0 1.2 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 1.2% 8.4% 8.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 5.0% 7.4% 7.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 4.6
11-9 12.7% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 12.2
10-10 21.9% 2.1% 2.1% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 21.5
9-11 26.9% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.1 0.3 26.5
8-12 20.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 20.0
7-13 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.8
6-14 2.3% 2.3
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.2 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.7%