Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.5#103
Expected Predictive Rating+6.4#88
Pace64.6#300
Improvement-1.9#305

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#102
First Shot+5.3#46
After Offensive Rebound-2.7#317
Layup/Dunks+2.3#101
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#103
Freethrows+1.1#115
Improvement-1.7#306

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#115
First Shot+2.7#96
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#246
Layups/Dunks-1.5#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#181
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#82
Freethrows+1.1#113
Improvement-0.2#201
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 18.3% 13.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Average Seed 12.2 12.1 12.5
.500 or above 91.9% 94.6% 83.8%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 85.7% 77.9%
Conference Champion 21.6% 23.2% 16.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 1.2% 2.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round17.1% 18.2% 13.7%
Second Round3.3% 3.8% 1.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana (Away) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 32 - 4
Quad 310 - 412 - 8
Quad 48 - 220 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 161   @ Texas Arlington W 92-77 57%     1 - 0 +17.7 +23.1 -4.7
  Nov 13, 2024 171   Massachusetts W 76-66 69%     2 - 0 +9.3 +2.6 +6.7
  Nov 25, 2024 169   Southern Illinois W 85-79 OT 69%     3 - 0 +5.3 -0.5 +4.9
  Nov 26, 2024 186   Richmond W 65-62 71%     4 - 0 +1.8 -0.1 +2.3
  Nov 27, 2024 207   Eastern Kentucky W 78-69 74%     5 - 0 +6.8 +9.7 -2.0
  Nov 30, 2024 234   Southern L 70-73 86%     5 - 1 -9.9 -3.8 -6.1
  Dec 04, 2024 32   @ Memphis L 71-81 14%     5 - 2 +5.9 +5.4 +0.3
  Dec 08, 2024 262   @ Louisiana W 77-70 76%    
  Dec 13, 2024 235   Georgia Southern W 80-69 86%    
  Dec 16, 2024 100   Grand Canyon W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 02, 2025 158   @ UTEP W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 218   @ New Mexico St. W 70-65 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 253   Florida International W 77-65 88%    
  Jan 11, 2025 70   Liberty L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 16, 2025 174   @ Jacksonville St. W 69-67 58%    
  Jan 18, 2025 146   @ Kennesaw St. W 76-75 53%    
  Jan 23, 2025 115   Western Kentucky W 77-73 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 128   Middle Tennessee W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 01, 2025 139   Sam Houston St. W 76-70 71%    
  Feb 06, 2025 70   @ Liberty L 62-68 28%    
  Feb 08, 2025 253   @ Florida International W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 13, 2025 146   Kennesaw St. W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 15, 2025 174   Jacksonville St. W 72-64 77%    
  Feb 20, 2025 128   @ Middle Tennessee L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 115   @ Western Kentucky L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 139   @ Sam Houston St. W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 06, 2025 218   New Mexico St. W 73-62 83%    
  Mar 08, 2025 158   UTEP W 73-66 74%    
Projected Record 18 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.4 4.0 6.1 5.3 3.1 1.3 0.3 21.6 1st
2nd 0.3 2.9 6.9 7.2 3.9 1.0 0.1 22.3 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 6.8 4.9 1.6 0.2 0.0 17.0 3rd
4th 0.2 2.3 5.8 3.7 0.7 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 4.2 2.8 0.5 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 1.7 0.2 4.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.6 6.8 9.4 12.4 14.0 13.8 12.8 10.2 6.3 3.2 1.3 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
16-2 97.5% 3.1    2.8 0.3
15-3 84.0% 5.3    4.1 1.2 0.0
14-4 59.5% 6.1    3.5 2.2 0.3
13-5 31.0% 4.0    1.5 1.9 0.6 0.0
12-6 9.8% 1.4    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0
11-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 13.7 6.2 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 71.0% 52.9% 18.1% 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 38.5%
17-1 1.3% 49.8% 46.2% 3.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.7 6.8%
16-2 3.2% 41.9% 41.0% 0.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.9 1.5%
15-3 6.3% 35.1% 35.0% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.1 4.1 0.1%
14-4 10.2% 28.5% 28.5% 12.0 0.0 0.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.8% 22.8% 22.8% 12.2 0.1 2.0 0.7 0.1 9.9
12-6 13.8% 17.5% 17.5% 12.4 0.0 1.4 0.9 0.1 11.4
11-7 14.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.7 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 12.2
10-8 12.4% 10.1% 10.1% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 11.2
9-9 9.4% 8.7% 8.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.6
8-10 6.8% 5.3% 5.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 6.5
7-11 4.6% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.4
6-12 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.2% 17.0% 0.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 9.4 4.1 1.0 0.3 0.0 82.8 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.9 4.3 25.5 17.0 21.3 12.8 10.6 2.1 2.1 4.3