Horizon
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Wright St. 23.2%   15   3 - 5 0 - 1 18 - 11 13 - 7 +1.4      +3.3 88 -1.9 231 69.1 177 -0.2 174 -11.2 7
144 Oakland 21.7%   2 - 4 1 - 0 15 - 13 14 - 6 +1.0      -0.2 179 +1.1 135 60.9 351 -0.2 175 +13.6 1
150 Purdue Fort Wayne 18.6%   4 - 4 0 - 1 17 - 12 12 - 8 +0.6      +3.1 93 -2.5 256 70.7 139 -2.4 204 -19.4 9
172 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13.9%   5 - 4 1 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -0.8      +1.9 127 -2.7 262 70.8 134 +0.9 157 +6.8 4
216 Northern Kentucky 8.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 16 11 - 9 -2.7      -2.9 245 +0.1 163 68.4 199 -11.0 326 0.0 6
229 Youngstown St. 6.0%   3 - 5 1 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -3.8      -5.7 328 +2.0 109 71.2 119 -5.9 265 +12.0 3
259 Cleveland St. 3.1%   3 - 6 0 - 1 12 - 16 9 - 11 -5.4      -5.2 316 -0.2 176 68.1 207 -6.0 267 -13.0 8
275 Robert Morris 2.4%   5 - 4 0 - 1 13 - 16 8 - 12 -6.2      -5.4 322 -0.8 196 68.9 186 -3.6 229 -22.0 10
298 Detroit Mercy 1.7%   4 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 -7.2      -3.8 279 -3.4 290 67.6 222 -2.3 202 +12.8 2
310 Green Bay 1.2%   2 - 7 0 - 1 9 - 21 7 - 13 -7.8      -2.0 222 -5.8 338 74.4 57 -10.5 322 -25.6 11
356 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   2 - 5 1 - 0 6 - 22 5 - 15 -13.4      -5.0 312 -8.3 360 67.0 235 -11.5 331 +4.4 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Wright St. 3.0 28.2 22.0 16.8 11.6 8.6 5.4 3.6 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1
Oakland 2.7 36.2 21.5 14.5 10.3 7.1 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.6 19.1 18.6 16.7 14.4 11.4 8.1 5.6 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 3.6 19.6 17.7 16.5 14.5 11.4 8.4 5.6 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3
Northern Kentucky 4.9 9.5 10.9 12.8 13.3 13.2 11.6 10.4 7.9 5.8 3.4 1.2
Youngstown St. 5.1 7.4 9.9 12.0 13.1 14.3 13.8 11.3 8.4 5.6 3.1 1.1
Cleveland St. 6.7 1.9 3.8 5.8 8.2 10.9 13.3 14.4 14.8 13.1 9.2 4.6
Robert Morris 7.5 1.0 2.0 3.9 5.6 8.6 10.7 14.0 15.9 16.6 13.8 7.9
Detroit Mercy 7.1 1.4 2.6 4.8 6.8 9.5 12.5 15.0 16.1 15.1 11.1 5.2
Green Bay 8.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.5 5.3 7.6 10.9 14.3 18.9 23.0 13.3
IU Indianapolis 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.9 6.9 12.9 24.3 48.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wright St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.9 6.2 9.4 12.1 14.0 15.1 13.9 10.8 6.8 2.8 0.8
Oakland 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.6 3.1 5.3 7.6 10.5 12.6 14.8 13.9 12.1 8.8 5.2 2.2 0.6
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.6 6.3 8.7 12.1 13.7 14.5 13.4 11.1 7.2 3.9 1.4 0.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.4 9.3 11.8 13.7 14.2 12.7 10.2 7.1 4.3 1.9 0.6 0.1
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.9 5.9 8.1 10.9 11.9 12.6 12.3 10.9 8.4 5.4 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Youngstown St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.8 6.0 9.2 11.7 13.5 14.0 12.3 10.2 7.5 4.6 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cleveland St. 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.7 6.3 9.1 11.9 13.6 13.6 12.7 10.1 7.3 4.7 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 8 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.2 6.2 9.1 11.9 13.9 13.6 12.7 10.1 7.6 4.9 2.8 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 8 - 12 0.1 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.5 10.9 13.2 14.4 14.0 11.6 8.8 5.9 3.7 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.1 6.7 9.8 13.3 14.4 14.0 12.3 9.4 7.0 4.3 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 5 - 15 5.5 13.0 17.7 18.4 15.6 11.8 8.2 4.8 2.7 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 28.2% 18.3 7.6 2.0 0.3 0.1
Oakland 36.2% 25.5 8.2 2.1 0.3 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 19.1% 11.6 5.6 1.6 0.3 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 19.6% 12.5 5.2 1.6 0.3 0.0
Northern Kentucky 9.5% 5.5 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.0
Youngstown St. 7.4% 3.9 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 23.2% 23.2% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.9 7.8 5.4 1.5 76.8 0.0%
Oakland 21.7% 21.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.5 5.5 6.3 5.3 2.0 78.3 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 18.6% 18.6% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 4.0 6.1 5.5 1.9 81.4 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13.9% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 4.5 4.6 1.6 86.1 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 8.2% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.8 91.8 0.0%
Youngstown St. 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.1 2.7 94.0 0.0%
Cleveland St. 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 96.9 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 97.6 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 98.3 0.0%
Green Bay 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.8 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 23.2% 0.4% 23.0% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 21.7% 0.9% 21.3% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 18.6% 0.5% 18.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13.9% 0.4% 13.7% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 8.2% 2.1% 7.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 6.0% 1.3% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 3.1% 1.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.4% 0.7% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.7% 0.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.9% 1.0 4.1 95.9
2nd Round 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0