Preseason Rankings
Horizon
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
179 Youngstown St. 16.1%   15   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -1.4      -1.2 206 -0.3 173 72.0 70 0.0 1 0.0 1
191 Wright St. 14.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -2.0      +0.7 143 -2.7 270 68.4 175 0.0 1 0.0 1
192 Purdue Fort Wayne 14.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 -2.0      -0.7 185 -1.3 206 74.1 49 0.0 1 0.0 1
197 Oakland 13.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 12 - 8 -2.2      -0.4 176 -1.8 228 60.9 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
207 Robert Morris 11.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 12 11 - 8 -2.7      -1.7 222 -1.0 201 69.4 137 0.0 1 0.0 1
214 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 11 - 9 -3.2      -1.2 210 -2.0 239 70.9 102 0.0 1 0.0 1
232 Cleveland St. 9.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 11 - 9 -4.0      -2.8 252 -1.2 204 64.4 286 0.0 1 0.0 1
266 Northern Kentucky 5.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 11 -5.7      -3.7 281 -2.0 242 65.3 257 0.0 1 0.0 1
309 Detroit Mercy 2.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 17 7 - 12 -8.3      -4.5 304 -3.8 298 67.3 206 0.0 1 0.0 1
314 Green Bay 2.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 13 -8.7      -3.5 277 -5.2 329 71.7 78 0.0 1 0.0 1
359 IU Indianapolis 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 16 -14.7      -6.0 336 -8.7 363 63.3 304 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Youngstown St. 3.9 21.9 16.5 13.2 11.4 9.8 8.3 6.7 5.2 3.9 2.3 0.8
Wright St. 4.2 18.8 15.2 13.3 11.8 10.2 9.1 7.5 6.0 4.3 2.7 1.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.2 19.0 15.5 13.1 11.7 10.3 8.9 7.7 5.8 4.4 2.7 1.0
Oakland 4.3 18.2 15.0 13.1 11.6 10.3 9.2 7.9 6.3 4.6 2.7 1.2
Robert Morris 5.1 10.5 11.1 11.2 11.9 11.6 11.2 9.9 8.9 7.2 4.7 1.8
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.8 13.5 12.6 11.7 11.5 11.2 10.5 9.3 7.9 6.1 4.2 1.5
Cleveland St. 5.2 10.6 11.0 11.1 11.4 11.0 10.7 9.9 9.2 7.9 5.2 2.0
Northern Kentucky 6.0 6.7 7.5 8.7 9.4 10.2 10.4 11.5 11.5 11.0 8.8 4.2
Detroit Mercy 7.6 1.6 3.0 4.3 5.7 7.2 9.2 11.3 14.0 16.4 17.2 10.3
Green Bay 7.5 1.9 3.4 4.7 5.8 7.1 8.8 10.5 13.6 16.0 17.4 11.0
IU Indianapolis 9.9 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 4.0 6.4 11.5 21.7 50.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Youngstown St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.4 6.9 8.4 9.7 10.5 11.1 10.3 9.6 7.7 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.5
Wright St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.9 4.3 5.7 7.7 9.2 10.0 10.8 10.9 9.8 8.6 6.8 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.4
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.6 8.7 10.2 11.1 10.5 10.3 8.6 6.7 5.0 2.8 1.4 0.4
Oakland 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.9 4.5 6.3 7.8 9.3 9.8 10.6 10.7 10.2 8.5 6.7 4.4 2.8 1.1 0.4
Robert Morris 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.3 4.9 6.8 8.2 9.7 10.8 11.3 10.5 9.5 8.0 5.7 4.2 2.3 1.1 0.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.3 9.3 10.3 10.7 10.4 9.5 8.7 6.9 5.2 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2
Cleveland St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.5 5.4 7.1 8.2 9.5 10.6 10.4 10.3 9.0 7.8 5.7 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.5 0.2
Northern Kentucky 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 5.9 7.8 8.7 10.3 10.3 10.0 9.3 8.5 7.0 5.5 4.1 2.5 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
Detroit Mercy 7 - 13 0.4 1.6 3.4 5.7 8.2 10.0 11.1 11.9 10.9 10.1 8.1 6.6 4.8 3.3 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Green Bay 7 - 13 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.0 8.1 10.0 11.3 11.3 10.4 9.2 8.1 6.4 5.0 3.4 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.0
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 6.3 12.1 15.5 15.4 13.4 11.4 8.7 6.1 4.2 2.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Youngstown St. 21.9% 15.3 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 18.8% 12.9 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 19.0% 12.9 4.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oakland 18.2% 12.1 4.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Robert Morris 10.5% 6.4 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 13.5% 8.8 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 10.6% 6.7 3.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 6.7% 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 1.9% 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Youngstown St. 16.1% 16.0% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.4 4.1 3.9 2.9 83.9 0.0%
Wright St. 14.3% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.9 3.6 3.7 2.7 85.7 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 3.6 3.4 2.4 86.0 0.0%
Oakland 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.3 1.6 2.9 3.6 3.2 2.5 86.4 0.0%
Robert Morris 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 3.0 3.2 2.2 88.6 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 89.2 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.6 2.6 91.0 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.0 94.1 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.2 97.6 0.0%
Green Bay 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 97.7 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Youngstown St. 16.1% 1.4% 16.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 14.3% 1.4% 14.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 14.0% 1.3% 14.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 13.6% 1.5% 13.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 11.4% 1.0% 11.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10.8% 1.5% 10.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.0% 1.5% 8.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 5.9% 1.1% 6.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 2.4% 0.7% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 2.3% 0.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 95.6% 1.0 4.4 91.5 4.1
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.4 4.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.6% 0.0 99.4 0.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0