Horizon
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
139 Youngstown St. 29.9%   15   4 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 15 - 5 +2.1      +5.2 49 -3.1 272 70.7 132 +2.1 143 0.0 1
144 Wright St. 27.2%   4 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 6 +1.7      +0.5 160 +1.2 141 76.5 40 +1.7 150 0.0 1
197 Detroit Mercy 10.6%   2 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 8 -1.6      +4.5 62 -6.1 320 63.9 301 +0.4 171 0.0 1
198 Purdue Fort Wayne 10.6%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 12 - 8 -1.6      -2.6 251 +1.0 150 70.9 126 -0.4 183 0.0 1
202 Cleveland St. 9.6%   4 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 -1.7      -1.6 217 -0.1 185 59.6 353 +1.0 160 0.0 1
229 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 -3.6      -3.5 283 -0.2 187 75.6 50 -1.1 198 0.0 1
237 Northern Kentucky 4.9%   2 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 11 - 9 -3.9      -2.0 231 -1.9 233 60.2 352 -4.6 246 0.0 1
294 Robert Morris 1.4%   0 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 8 - 12 -7.3      -4.0 298 -3.3 274 67.5 219 -15.7 349 0.0 1
301 Oakland 0.8%   1 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 12 -7.8      +1.2 141 -8.9 357 69.1 170 -11.5 320 0.0 1
359 IUPUI 0.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 4 - 25 3 - 17 -16.9      -7.1 343 -9.8 361 65.6 261 -21.1 362 0.0 1
362 Green Bay 0.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 3 - 28 3 - 17 -17.1      -8.7 353 -8.4 351 63.3 316 -15.5 348 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Youngstown St. 2.6 37.6 22.4 14.9 10.0 6.6 4.2 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 2.7 34.1 22.8 15.2 10.9 7.4 4.7 2.8 1.5 0.7 0.0
Detroit Mercy 4.2 12.8 14.9 15.1 14.7 13.3 11.1 8.7 6.0 2.8 0.5 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 4.2 13.6 14.7 15.0 14.2 12.7 11.1 8.7 6.1 3.3 0.5 0.1
Cleveland St. 4.3 11.8 14.3 15.2 14.9 13.4 11.5 9.1 6.1 3.1 0.5 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.2 5.8 8.8 11.3 13.0 14.3 14.7 13.8 10.8 6.0 1.3 0.2
Northern Kentucky 5.3 5.5 8.4 10.6 12.6 14.3 14.7 13.9 11.5 6.9 1.4 0.2
Robert Morris 7.0 1.3 2.6 4.3 6.1 9.0 11.9 15.7 20.5 21.1 6.1 1.5
Oakland 7.3 0.8 1.8 3.4 5.0 8.2 11.1 15.7 21.9 24.5 6.4 1.4
IUPUI 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 3.7 11.8 43.1 39.4
Green Bay 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.2 3.6 11.5 41.3 41.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Youngstown St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.6 5.6 8.5 11.7 14.1 15.1 14.2 11.4 7.8 3.7 1.0
Wright St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.7 6.4 9.4 12.1 14.2 14.7 14.1 10.5 6.8 3.0 0.8
Detroit Mercy 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.2 9.7 12.1 13.4 13.4 12.2 9.5 6.4 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.0 10.0 11.7 12.8 13.1 11.9 9.6 6.7 4.0 1.8 0.7 0.1
Cleveland St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.8 5.2 7.5 9.9 12.6 13.4 13.3 11.7 9.4 6.2 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.3 5.7 8.3 11.0 12.9 13.7 12.7 10.8 7.9 5.5 3.1 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.1 8.7 11.6 13.0 13.3 12.5 10.4 7.7 5.0 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.4 7.5 10.2 12.4 13.4 13.3 11.2 8.9 6.4 4.4 2.4 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oakland 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 4.8 8.5 11.5 13.9 14.5 12.9 11.0 8.1 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
IUPUI 3 - 17 5.9 15.3 20.3 20.2 15.8 10.5 6.1 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Green Bay 3 - 17 6.2 16.1 21.7 19.5 15.3 10.1 5.7 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Youngstown St. 37.6% 26.9 8.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wright St. 34.1% 24.0 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Detroit Mercy 12.8% 7.6 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 13.6% 8.1 4.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 11.8% 6.8 3.7 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.8% 3.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Northern Kentucky 5.5% 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Robert Morris 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oakland 0.8% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
IUPUI
Green Bay


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Youngstown St. 29.9% 29.8% 0.1% 15   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 6.4 10.9 7.7 2.7 70.1 0.1%
Wright St. 27.2% 27.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.7 9.3 8.2 3.7 72.8 0.1%
Detroit Mercy 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.8 3.2 89.4 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.9 3.8 2.6 89.4 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.6% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.4 2.9 90.4 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.2 94.9 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.4 95.1 0.0%
Robert Morris 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 98.6 0.0%
Oakland 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 99.2 0.0%
IUPUI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Green Bay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Youngstown St. 29.9% 1.0% 29.5% 3.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 27.2% 1.4% 26.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 10.6% 1.9% 9.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 10.6% 1.4% 10.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 9.6% 1.4% 9.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.2% 1.3% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 4.9% 1.6% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 1.4% 1.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 0.8% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 94.6% 0.9 5.4 94.5 0.1
2nd Round 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0