Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
150 Wright St. 24.4%   15   16 - 10 13 - 4 +0.3      +1.6 127 -1.3 214 67.0 228 -0.3 166 +2.0 1
162 Oakland 22.7%   13 - 13 10 - 6 -0.2      +3.7 88 -3.9 293 74.3 42 +0.1 156 -0.5 2
177 Robert Morris 17.4%   16 - 10 10 - 7 -1.2      +0.4 151 -1.6 224 63.7 312 -0.5 168 -2.1 3
195 Northern Kentucky 9.9%   14 - 11 9 - 8 -2.1      -0.9 189 -1.2 210 72.2 80 -2.6 212 -4.0 7
196 Youngstown St. 7.4%   11 - 14 7 - 10 -2.1      -0.9 191 -1.2 208 68.2 191 -5.6 255 -6.8 9
234 Green Bay 7.3%   13 - 13 10 - 7 -4.1      +1.7 124 -5.8 328 60.9 351 -2.1 199 -2.4 4
254 Detroit Mercy 4.9%   10 - 13 9 - 7 -5.2      -1.8 222 -3.3 274 71.2 111 -4.0 233 -2.8 5
259 Purdue Fort Wayne 3.8%   12 - 13 9 - 8 -5.6      -2.6 242 -3.0 263 69.6 149 -2.3 205 -2.9 6
268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1.5%   10 - 17 7 - 10 -6.1      -2.2 230 -3.9 292 69.5 150 -6.0 261 -6.6 8
312 Cleveland St. 0.4%   7 - 18 6 - 11 -9.3      +0.7 146 -10.0 363 71.9 93 -7.6 288 -7.2 10
323 IU Indianapolis 0.2%   5 - 22 3 - 15 -10.4      -3.6 268 -6.8 344 81.6 3 -12.0 339 -12.7 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Feb 18 195 Northern Kentucky 87 259 Purdue Fort Wayne 71   
Wed, Feb 18 312 Cleveland St. 82 196 Youngstown St. 106   
Thu, Feb 19 323 IU Indianapolis 73 150 Wright St. 85   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Feb 20 234 Green Bay 76 162 Oakland 83 75%   
Fri, Feb 20 254 Detroit Mercy 80 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 76 65%   
Sun, Feb 22 177 Robert Morris 71 150 Wright St. 75 67%   
Sun, Feb 22 195 Northern Kentucky 75 196 Youngstown St. 78 61%   
Sun, Feb 22 254 Detroit Mercy 76 234 Green Bay 74 58%   
Sun, Feb 22 268 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 78 162 Oakland 87 80%   
Sun, Feb 22 312 Cleveland St. 81 259 Purdue Fort Wayne 82 53%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Wright St. 1.0 97.2 2.8
Oakland 2.0 16.7 71.1 7.7 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1
Robert Morris 3.0 3.1 22.9 53.1 13.7 5.2 1.6 0.5
Northern Kentucky 5.0 1.8 12.4 23.8 25.3 20.3 13.6 2.9
Youngstown St. 7.8 0.6 5.0 9.0 14.2 47.5 20.8 2.9
Green Bay 4.0 0.5 12.7 24.2 30.9 16.7 10.4 4.5
Detroit Mercy 4.7 0.2 7.1 16.4 22.7 18.9 18.6 14.0 2.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 5.1 1.7 11.3 22.0 24.6 21.5 17.0 1.9
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8.4 0.1 1.0 2.9 8.2 34.6 45.7 7.6
Cleveland St. 9.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 7.0 32.1 59.7
IU Indianapolis 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Wright St. 15 - 5 18 - 11 7.5 30.2 41.8 20.5
Oakland 13 - 7 16 - 14 0.4 4.7 18.5 40.7 35.8
Robert Morris 12 - 8 18 - 11 2.8 23.3 51.8 22.1
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 16 - 12 11.5 35.8 38.8 13.9
Youngstown St. 9 - 11 13 - 15 10.2 33.8 38.7 17.3
Green Bay 11 - 9 14 - 15 21.0 42.7 29.5 6.7
Detroit Mercy 11 - 9 12 - 15 9.9 33.0 38.0 16.5 2.6
Purdue Fort Wayne 10 - 10 13 - 15 13.5 36.9 37.1 12.5
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 8 - 12 11 - 19 29.1 44.2 22.8 3.9
Cleveland St. 7 - 13 8 - 20 30.1 45.5 21.5 2.9
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 6 - 23 42.9 45.8 11.3

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Wright St. 97.2% 81.9 13.0 2.1 0.2
Oakland 16.7% 2.8 11.8 1.9 0.2
Robert Morris 3.1% 1.0 1.9 0.2
Northern Kentucky
Youngstown St.
Green Bay 0.5% 0.1 0.3 0.2
Detroit Mercy 0.2% 0.1 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne
Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Cleveland St.
IU Indianapolis


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Wright St. 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 15   0.0 0.2 4.2 12.4 7.4 0.3 75.6 0.0%
Oakland 22.7% 22.7% 0.0% 0.2 3.4 9.8 8.4 0.8 77.4 0.0%
Robert Morris 17.4% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0 1.6 7.9 7.2 0.7 82.6 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.0 4.9 1.6 90.1 0.0%
Youngstown St. 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.9 3.0 3.3 92.6 0.0%
Green Bay 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.7 3.0 92.7 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 3.7 95.1 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.2 1.5 2.2 96.2 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.9% 1.0 4.1 95.9
2nd Round 1.8% 0.0 98.3 1.8
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Wright St. 24.4% 0.0% 24.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oakland 22.7% 0.1% 22.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 17.4% 0.1% 17.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 9.9% 0.3% 9.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 7.4% 2.0% 6.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 7.3% 0.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 4.9% 2.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.8% 0.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1.5% 1.4% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%