Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
132 Oakland 31.8%   14   12 - 10 9 - 3 +1.6      +5.0 71 -3.4 282 73.9 55 +2.6 120 +3.0 2
148 Wright St. 24.3%   11 - 8 8 - 2 +0.5      +1.9 120 -1.4 225 66.8 238 -0.5 170 +3.4 1
176 Northern Kentucky 13.2%   11 - 8 6 - 5 -1.4      0.0 160 -1.4 221 72.9 76 -1.8 197 -3.3 5
206 Robert Morris 7.6%   12 - 9 6 - 6 -2.8      0.0 159 -2.8 262 63.9 310 -1.8 198 -4.8 7
224 Youngstown St. 4.7%   7 - 12 3 - 8 -3.6      -2.2 228 -1.4 223 68.9 174 -7.2 284 -10.1 10
227 Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4%   10 - 9 7 - 4 -3.7      -2.0 222 -1.7 232 70.8 129 -0.4 166 -0.7 4
244 Green Bay 5.3%   10 - 10 7 - 4 -4.6      +1.0 137 -5.7 334 61.4 350 -0.9 180 -0.7 3
245 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.0%   8 - 13 5 - 6 -4.7      -1.4 205 -3.3 279 70.4 140 -4.0 226 -4.4 6
295 Detroit Mercy 1.1%   6 - 12 5 - 6 -7.4      -2.4 237 -5.0 317 71.5 109 -7.2 286 -6.3 8
319 Cleveland St. 0.6%   4 - 14 3 - 7 -9.5      -1.3 200 -8.2 359 71.7 100 -9.8 323 -9.9 9
340 IU Indianapolis 0.1%   4 - 17 2 - 10 -11.6      -3.9 274 -7.7 357 82.1 4 -11.8 333 -12.7 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 28 132 Oakland 74 227 Purdue Fort Wayne 65   
Wed, Jan 28 340 IU Indianapolis 58 206 Robert Morris 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 245 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 75 148 Wright St. 77 58%   
Fri, Jan 30 295 Detroit Mercy 78 176 Northern Kentucky 81 62%   
Fri, Jan 30 319 Cleveland St. 74 244 Green Bay 82 77%   
Fri, Jan 30 340 IU Indianapolis 77 224 Youngstown St. 88 85%   
Sat, Jan 31 227 Purdue Fort Wayne 75 206 Robert Morris 72 58%   
Sun, Feb 1 176 Northern Kentucky 81 132 Oakland 87 72%   
Sun, Feb 1 244 Green Bay 72 148 Wright St. 74 58%   
Sun, Feb 1 319 Cleveland St. 77 245 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 85 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Oakland 1.4 65.4 30.0 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wright St. 1.7 49.7 36.4 8.1 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Northern Kentucky 4.1 2.7 10.1 28.5 24.5 15.0 10.3 6.3 1.8 0.7 0.1
Robert Morris 5.4 0.4 3.0 10.8 16.6 21.8 21.9 16.3 6.6 2.2 0.4
Youngstown St. 7.9 0.0 0.8 2.4 5.2 9.6 14.3 28.2 27.0 10.9 1.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.9 3.5 12.5 30.8 21.9 15.2 9.1 5.5 1.3 0.2 0.0
Green Bay 4.2 2.4 9.1 26.8 22.4 18.2 11.3 6.6 2.4 0.7 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.0 0.2 1.4 6.9 12.2 17.5 20.0 21.3 12.6 6.7 1.3 0.0
Detroit Mercy 7.7 0.3 1.1 3.4 5.7 9.9 15.5 29.3 27.8 6.8 0.2
Cleveland St. 9.5 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 9.9 22.0 48.5 12.8
IU Indianapolis 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 5.5 24.0 69.3

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Oakland 15 - 5 18 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.8 8.0 17.4 29.1 30.0 13.0
Wright St. 15 - 5 18 - 11 0.1 0.4 2.7 6.0 12.8 20.8 25.4 19.8 9.3 2.7
Northern Kentucky 11 - 9 16 - 12 0.0 0.6 2.2 7.7 15.2 23.3 24.1 17.6 7.6 1.7
Robert Morris 10 - 10 16 - 13 0.2 2.2 9.2 18.7 26.1 23.7 14.4 4.8 0.8
Youngstown St. 8 - 12 12 - 16 0.1 1.4 5.6 14.7 22.9 23.0 18.7 10.1 3.1 0.5
Purdue Fort Wayne 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.2 1.3 6.6 14.2 21.3 24.3 18.8 9.8 3.3 0.2
Green Bay 11 - 9 14 - 15 0.3 2.4 8.6 17.7 23.2 23.6 15.5 6.9 1.6 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.2 1.5 6.1 15.3 23.1 23.0 19.1 8.7 2.8 0.4
Detroit Mercy 8 - 12 9 - 18 3.4 13.2 22.6 26.4 18.6 10.5 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0
Cleveland St. 6 - 14 7 - 21 5.2 15.1 23.5 23.0 18.3 9.4 4.1 1.1 0.2 0.1
IU Indianapolis 4 - 16 6 - 23 9.5 27.2 30.0 21.0 9.1 2.8 0.5 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oakland 65.4% 44.9 18.3 2.0 0.1 0.0
Wright St. 49.7% 30.8 17.0 1.7 0.1 0.0
Northern Kentucky 2.7% 0.7 1.2 0.8 0.1
Robert Morris 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Youngstown St.
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.5% 0.9 1.7 0.9 0.0
Green Bay 2.4% 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 0.2% 0.0 0.2 0.0
Detroit Mercy
Cleveland St.
IU Indianapolis


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oakland 31.8% 31.8% 0.0% 14   0.0 2.8 11.6 13.4 3.9 0.1 68.2 0.0%
Wright St. 24.3% 24.3% 0.0% 1.0 4.3 10.7 7.4 0.9 75.7 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 13.2% 13.2% 0.0% 0.2 1.3 4.0 5.9 1.7 86.8 0.0%
Robert Morris 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.1 1.3 92.4 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 95.3 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.5 1.2 92.7 0.0%
Green Bay 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 2.8 1.6 94.7 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 2.6 96.0 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 98.9 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.6 99.4 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.1% 1.0 2.9 97.1
2nd Round 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Oakland 31.8% 0.0% 31.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 24.3% 0.1% 24.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 13.2% 0.3% 13.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 7.6% 0.2% 7.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 4.7% 1.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.4% 0.2% 7.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 5.3% 0.5% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 4.0% 1.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 1.1% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IU Indianapolis 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%