Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
125 Oakland 31.6%   14   5 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 16 - 6 +2.7      -0.2 179 +2.9 89 71.0 132 +13.8 31 0.0 1
163 Cleveland St. 18.0%   2 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 14 - 8 +0.1      -0.3 182 +0.4 157 65.1 279 -0.9 190 0.0 1
196 Northern Kentucky 11.0%   1 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 14 13 - 9 -1.6      -0.3 181 -1.3 224 63.5 314 -8.8 301 0.0 1
206 Wright St. 10.8%   0 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 13 - 9 -2.0      -0.4 187 -1.6 233 75.5 53 -16.0 344 0.0 1
227 Detroit Mercy 7.7%   0 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 17 12 - 10 -3.2      +3.2 88 -6.4 335 67.3 234 -5.1 247 0.0 1
244 Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.2%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 11 -4.2      -1.8 226 -2.4 255 67.8 226 -8.0 290 0.0 1
250 Illinois-Chicago 5.2%   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 11 - 11 -4.8      -2.4 247 -2.4 254 66.1 257 -4.1 235 0.0 1
273 Purdue Fort Wayne 3.2%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 17 10 - 12 -6.2      -1.1 205 -5.1 317 72.0 104 -5.4 249 0.0 1
279 Youngstown St. 2.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 9 - 13 -6.6      -1.6 219 -4.9 310 67.4 231 -9.8 307 0.0 1
286 Robert Morris 2.5%   0 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 20 9 - 13 -7.0      -2.0 235 -5.1 315 71.9 106 -14.7 340 0.0 1
299 Green Bay 1.6%   0 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 21 8 - 14 -7.7      -2.9 266 -4.8 306 65.6 269 -13.7 334 0.0 1
339 IUPUI 0.1%   0 - 5 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 17 -12.3      -9.0 352 -3.3 280 62.1 332 -19.7 354 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Oakland 2.3 47.7 20.8 11.8 8.0 5.0 3.3 1.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cleveland St. 3.5 24.2 20.2 15.1 11.7 8.0 6.6 5.2 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.7 0.4
Northern Kentucky 4.5 12.6 14.8 15.2 12.8 11.1 9.6 8.7 5.4 4.2 2.8 2.2 0.7
Wright St. 4.8 11.2 15.4 12.8 13.4 10.6 10.1 7.7 6.3 5.1 3.9 2.6 0.9
Detroit Mercy 5.3 7.7 10.9 12.6 12.7 12.1 10.5 9.1 8.7 6.5 4.6 3.4 1.3
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.0 5.3 8.3 10.3 11.1 11.2 11.0 10.2 10.1 8.1 7.2 4.9 2.3
Illinois-Chicago 6.4 3.8 7.1 8.7 9.7 10.4 11.1 11.2 10.4 9.7 7.8 6.4 3.7
Purdue Fort Wayne 7.3 2.7 5.1 6.1 7.6 7.8 10.4 9.8 11.3 11.0 11.4 10.1 6.8
Youngstown St. 7.6 1.5 3.6 5.4 6.9 8.1 8.9 10.8 11.0 13.1 12.8 11.5 6.5
Robert Morris 7.8 1.5 3.0 4.3 6.0 7.6 10.3 10.2 12.4 11.9 12.6 11.9 8.3
Green Bay 8.2 1.2 2.0 3.8 4.5 6.6 8.1 10.1 11.7 13.3 14.3 14.4 10.2
IUPUI 10.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.3 4.3 5.2 7.9 13.9 22.0 41.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
Oakland 16 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.9 5.0 6.7 7.9 11.0 13.0 13.6 13.1 11.0 7.5 4.3 1.2
Cleveland St. 14 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 2.2 3.2 5.1 7.3 8.3 9.5 10.9 11.4 11.0 11.0 7.6 5.6 3.0 1.5 0.2
Northern Kentucky 13 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.5 4.0 5.4 7.6 9.6 11.1 11.2 11.3 11.1 8.1 6.8 4.0 2.8 1.4 0.3 0.1
Wright St. 13 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.5 3.2 4.8 6.6 7.3 9.7 11.1 12.2 10.2 9.0 7.8 6.5 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
Detroit Mercy 12 - 10 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.7 4.2 5.3 8.6 9.0 10.5 12.3 11.5 9.2 9.3 6.1 3.7 2.5 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 11 - 11 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.1 4.0 6.3 8.3 9.2 10.0 10.9 11.7 10.5 8.3 6.0 4.7 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.5 0.0
Illinois-Chicago 11 - 11 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.6 4.6 6.7 8.2 10.7 11.2 11.2 10.2 9.8 7.2 5.3 3.8 2.3 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0
Purdue Fort Wayne 10 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.8 5.2 7.4 10.0 8.7 10.6 10.2 10.6 8.6 7.3 4.9 3.4 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Youngstown St. 9 - 13 0.1 0.2 0.8 2.2 4.5 6.5 7.8 9.9 10.6 10.8 11.9 9.7 7.8 6.0 4.8 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 9 - 13 0.2 0.4 1.5 3.0 3.9 6.4 8.2 9.8 11.1 11.5 10.7 11.0 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.7 1.1 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1
Green Bay 8 - 14 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.0 4.9 8.1 9.8 11.9 11.8 11.8 10.2 8.6 6.4 4.1 3.1 1.9 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1
IUPUI 5 - 17 2.2 5.4 8.7 12.1 13.4 12.9 13.6 9.7 7.9 6.1 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Oakland 47.7% 37.4 8.8 1.2 0.3 0.1
Cleveland St. 24.2% 16.6 6.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
Northern Kentucky 12.6% 8.3 3.3 0.9 0.1
Wright St. 11.2% 7.1 3.3 0.6 0.2 0.1
Detroit Mercy 7.7% 4.9 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.1
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 5.3% 3.3 1.5 0.3 0.2
Illinois-Chicago 3.8% 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.1
Purdue Fort Wayne 2.7% 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1
Youngstown St. 1.5% 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Robert Morris 1.5% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1
Green Bay 1.2% 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
IUPUI 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Oakland 31.6% 31.3% 0.3% 14   0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.8 6.2 10.1 8.5 3.5 0.6 68.4 0.5%
Cleveland St. 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.4 4.9 6.4 3.7 82.0 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.6 5.2 89.0 0.0%
Wright St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.2 6.9 89.2 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 4.7 92.3 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.2 93.9 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.7 94.9 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.2 96.8 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3 97.3 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 2.3 97.5 0.0%
Green Bay 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 1.4 98.5 0.0%
IUPUI 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Oakland 31.6% 0.2% 31.5% 3.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cleveland St. 18.0% 1.4% 17.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northern Kentucky 11.0% 2.8% 9.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wright St. 10.8% 3.9% 9.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Detroit Mercy 7.7% 2.2% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 6.2% 2.1% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Illinois-Chicago 5.2% 1.9% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Purdue Fort Wayne 3.2% 1.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Youngstown St. 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Robert Morris 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Green Bay 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
IUPUI 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.7 0.3
1st Round 90.5% 0.9 9.5 90.3 0.2
2nd Round 6.8% 0.1 93.2 6.8
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0