Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.7 #148
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #159
Pace 67.6 #214
Improvement -1.0 #236

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 C B- C C+ C
Defense #200 C C C C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #70 1.16 #172 +2.5 #98
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #158 0.77 #150 +0.6 #147
Three Pointers 36% #291 1.00 #201 -2.9 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.1 #172
Freethrows 0.32 #154 74% #134 0.23 #141
Second Chance 31.2% #158 1.14 #52 0.35 #94
Turnovers 16.5% #151
Total Offense +1.5 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #33 1.16 #174 -3.6 #302
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #122 0.84 #304 -1.4 #291
Three Pointers 33% #352 0.98 #118 +4.5 #25
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #193 -0.4 #194
Freethrows 0.31 #190 71% #106 0.22 #169
Second Chance 31.0% #196 1.04 #207 0.32 #209
Turnovers 17.3% #165
Total Defense -0.8 #200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #171 0.5% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.1% #176 0.4% #194
Possession Length 18.4 #290 16.9 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #291 0.17 #180
Improvement +2.0 #81 -3.0 #328

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.7% 27.7% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.8 14.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 72.7% 79.0% 49.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round26.7% 27.7% 23.1%
Second Round0.9% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Home) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 54 - 9
Quad 415 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 65 @California L 67 - 77 15% -6  0 - 1 +2 +0 D- B+ A +1 B- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 159 Toledo L 71 - 81 65% -4  0 - 2 -13 -2 B- B- F -12 D F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 234 Radford W 92 - 59 68% +13  1 - 2 +29 +13 B+ B B- +15 B+ A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 16 139 Kent St. L 72 - 76 OT 48% +2  1 - 3 -3 -4 C- C+ C+ +2 A- D- A
 Tue, Nov 25 335 @Stetson W 79 - 62 80% +15  2 - 3 +9 +8 A- B F +2 C+ F+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 72 @Butler L 69 - 94 17% -5  2 - 4 -14 -5 C- C- C -7 D- D- C-
 Wed, Dec 3 197 @Youngstown St. L 68 - 69 50% -0  2 - 5 0 - 1 -0 -3 C C- C +3 B F A
 Sun, Dec 7 249 Green Bay W 86 - 58 79% +12  3 - 5 1 - 1 +20 +8 D+ A+ B- +13 A D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 157 @Marshall L 74 - 76 41% +1  3 - 6 +1 +10 B D- A+ -9 C- D- C-
 Tue, Dec 16 90 Miami (OH) L 76 - 83 41% -8  3 - 7 -4 -0 D- C- A- -4 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 22 230 Eastern Michigan W 70 - 64 76% +1  4 - 7 -1 -2 C F+ D +1 B- B+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 143 Oakland W 88 - 73 60% +14  5 - 7 2 - 1 +13 +10 A+ C D +3 A- B+ A-
 Thu, Jan 1 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 70 82% +7  6 - 7 3 - 1 -3 +4 F B A- -6 C C+ F
 Sun, Jan 4 338 @IU Indianapolis W 81 - 77 80% +5  7 - 7 4 - 1 -4 +6 D+ A+ F -10 D C C
 Fri, Jan 9 261 @Detroit Mercy W 84 - 82 63% +6  8 - 7 5 - 1 -1 +8 B- D+ D- -9 C F D+
 Sun, Jan 11 143 @Oakland W 94 - 84 37% +17  9 - 7 6 - 1 +14 +16 A+ D F -2 C A- F
 Thu, Jan 15 197 Youngstown St. W 93 - 83 72% +5  10 - 7 7 - 1 +5 +24 C A+ A+ -19 C F F+
 Wed, Jan 21 290 Cleveland St. L 79 - 85 85% +0  10 - 8 7 - 2 -16 -2 F B- A -14 D C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 201 Northern Kentucky W 88 - 80 73% +9  11 - 8 8 - 2 +2 +12 B- C- A+ -9 F C B
 Fri, Jan 30 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 69 64% +5  12 - 8 9 - 2 +4 -2 D B D- +6 C+ B C-
 Sun, Feb 1 249 @Green Bay W 83 - 75 60% +9  13 - 8 10 - 2 +6 +14 C C+ A+ -7 C F C
 Wed, Feb 4 214 @Robert Morris L 66 - 72 53% -5  13 - 9 10 - 3 -6 -6 F C- B- +0 D A- D
 Sat, Feb 7 239 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 72 78%
 Thu, Feb 12 261 Detroit Mercy W 82 - 73 81%
 Sun, Feb 15 290 @Cleveland St. W 83 - 78 68%
 Thu, Feb 19 338 IU Indianapolis W 91 - 76 92%
 Sun, Feb 22 214 Robert Morris W 77 - 70 74%
 Wed, Feb 25 239 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77 - 75 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 201 @Northern Kentucky W 78 - 77 51%
Totals 18 - 11 15 - 5 +1 +2 C B- C -1 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 8.8 25.3 27.2 10.2 72.7 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 6.4 11.2 6.1 24.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 0.9 0.1 2.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 8.4 20.2 31.4 27.2 10.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 10.2    10.2
16-4 100.0% 27.2    21.9 5.3
15-5 80.7% 25.3    13.6 11.7 0.0
14-6 43.7% 8.8    3.1 5.4 0.4 0.0
13-7 13.7% 1.2    0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0
12-8 2.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 72.7% 72.7 48.9 22.9 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 10.2% 33.3% 33.3% 12.9 0.0 0.9 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.8
16-4 27.2% 31.2% 31.2% 13.7 0.2 3.0 4.7 0.6 18.7
15-5 31.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.1 0.0 1.3 5.0 2.0 0.0 23.1
14-6 20.2% 22.3% 22.3% 14.4 0.3 2.4 1.8 0.1 15.7
13-7 8.4% 19.3% 19.3% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.1 6.8
12-8 2.3% 17.5% 17.5% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.9
11-9 0.4% 13.2% 13.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.7% 26.7% 0.0% 13.9 73.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 100.0% 12.9 0.3 26.5 54.4 18.5 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1%