Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#205
Expected Predictive Rating-16.1#342
Pace75.7#47
Improvement-0.8#247

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#184
First Shot-0.6#190
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#161
Layup/Dunks-3.2#285
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#346
Freethrows+3.1#21
Improvement+0.2#148

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#232
First Shot-0.5#189
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#252
Layups/Dunks+1.6#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#126
Freethrows-0.9#238
Improvement-1.1#276
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.9% 14.2% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 46.7% 59.0% 31.2%
.500 or above in Conference 77.9% 86.7% 66.9%
Conference Champion 12.8% 17.7% 6.5%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.5% 2.8%
First Four4.2% 3.8% 4.7%
First Round10.0% 12.6% 6.7%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 55.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 52 - 9
Quad 413 - 815 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 114   @ Marshall L 88-96 22%     0 - 1 -1.7 -1.8 +1.8
  Nov 16, 2021 2   @ Purdue L 52-96 2%     0 - 2 -20.4 -16.5 -1.2
  Nov 22, 2021 262   George Washington L 63-74 64%     0 - 3 -16.6 -9.7 -7.0
  Nov 23, 2021 163   James Madison L 76-78 42%     0 - 4 -1.8 -1.1 -0.5
  Nov 24, 2021 297   Long Beach St. L 76-85 70%     0 - 5 -16.3 -8.6 -6.8
  Dec 02, 2021 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-78 56%    
  Dec 04, 2021 166   @ Cleveland St. L 69-74 32%    
  Dec 15, 2021 165   Akron W 71-70 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 277   Tennessee Tech W 80-73 75%    
  Dec 22, 2021 64   @ North Carolina St. L 69-81 13%    
  Dec 30, 2021 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-69 72%    
  Jan 01, 2022 301   Green Bay W 78-69 78%    
  Jan 06, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago W 76-70 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 336   IUPUI W 74-61 89%    
  Jan 10, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 70-73 38%    
  Jan 13, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 279   @ Youngstown St. W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 20, 2022 336   @ IUPUI W 71-64 75%    
  Jan 22, 2022 252   @ Illinois-Chicago W 74-73 50%    
  Jan 28, 2022 166   Cleveland St. W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 30, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 82-75 75%    
  Feb 03, 2022 231   Detroit Mercy W 80-76 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 124   Oakland L 73-75 43%    
  Feb 09, 2022 301   @ Green Bay W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 11, 2022 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 13, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky W 73-70 58%    
  Feb 18, 2022 124   @ Oakland L 70-78 25%    
  Feb 20, 2022 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 77-79 44%    
  Feb 24, 2022 279   Youngstown St. W 79-72 74%    
  Feb 26, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 82-74 77%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 13 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.9 3.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.8 4.3 3.2 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 2.5 4.8 4.4 2.0 0.3 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.8 5.1 2.9 0.8 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.4 1.6 4.1 2.6 0.7 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.4 3.1 2.2 0.4 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.1 2.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.4 3.5 6.0 7.1 10.0 11.1 11.2 11.7 10.0 8.4 6.5 4.8 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
20-2 99.8% 1.2    1.2 0.0
19-3 92.0% 2.3    2.0 0.3
18-4 69.5% 3.4    2.3 1.0 0.0
17-5 44.6% 2.9    1.6 1.2 0.2
16-6 21.6% 1.8    0.8 0.6 0.4 0.0
15-7 5.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 8.5 3.3 0.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 34.4% 34.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.5% 51.9% 51.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2
20-2 1.2% 35.5% 35.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
19-3 2.5% 33.4% 33.4% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 1.7
18-4 4.8% 31.0% 31.0% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 0.3 3.3
17-5 6.5% 28.4% 28.4% 15.3 0.2 0.9 0.8 4.6
16-6 8.4% 20.1% 20.1% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.1 6.7
15-7 10.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.1 8.6
14-8 11.7% 12.6% 12.6% 15.9 0.2 1.3 10.3
13-9 11.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.9 0.1 1.0 10.1
12-10 11.1% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.7 10.4
11-11 10.0% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 9.6
10-12 7.1% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.2 6.9
9-13 6.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 5.9
8-14 3.5% 3.5
7-15 2.4% 2.4
6-16 1.4% 1.4
5-17 0.9% 0.9
4-18 0.6% 0.6
3-19 0.2% 0.2
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.6 7.0 88.1 0.0%