Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.6#153
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#247
Pace67.2#246
Improvement-0.3#208

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#162
First Shot-1.4#212
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#83
Layup/Dunks+0.2#179
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#109
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#190
Freethrows-2.6#320
Improvement+0.8#118

Defense
Total Defense+0.5#143
First Shot+1.6#120
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#271
Layups/Dunks-7.1#359
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#1
Freethrows+0.4#153
Improvement-1.1#269
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.9% 20.9% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 75.1% 80.7% 57.8%
.500 or above in Conference 91.9% 92.9% 88.9%
Conference Champion 23.2% 25.1% 17.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.9%
First Round19.5% 20.6% 16.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Michigan (Home) - 75.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 413 - 317 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 65 @California L 67-77 16%     0 - 1 +1.3 +0.2 +1.0
  Tue, Nov 11 169 Toledo L 71-81 66%     0 - 2 -13.6 -3.1 -11.1
  Sat, Nov 15 263 Radford W 92-59 72%     1 - 2 +27.5 +11.7 +14.7
  Sun, Nov 16 122 Kent St. L 72-76 OT 43%     1 - 3 -1.6 -4.3 +3.0
  Tue, Nov 25 345 @Stetson W 79-62 81%     2 - 3 +8.3 +8.9 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 28 55 @Butler L 69-94 13%     2 - 4 -12.3 -3.0 -7.5
  Wed, Dec 3 165 @Youngstown St. L 68-69 42%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +1.6 -0.8 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 7 265 Green Bay W 86-58 81%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +19.4 +10.5 +9.9
  Sat, Dec 13 161 @Marshall L 74-76 41%     3 - 6 +0.9 +10.7 -10.0
  Tue, Dec 16 104 Miami (OH) L 76-83 47%     3 - 7 -5.7 -0.7 -4.7
  Mon, Dec 22 217 Eastern Michigan W 74-67 76%    
  Mon, Dec 29 134 Oakland W 81-79 57%    
  Thu, Jan 1 208 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-72 74%    
  Sun, Jan 4 356 @IU Indianapolis W 90-78 86%    
  Fri, Jan 9 296 @Detroit Mercy W 75-70 67%    
  Sun, Jan 11 134 @Oakland L 78-82 37%    
  Thu, Jan 15 165 Youngstown St. W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 334 Cleveland St. W 84-70 91%    
  Sat, Jan 24 206 Northern Kentucky W 77-70 73%    
  Fri, Jan 30 208 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-75 53%    
  Sun, Feb 1 265 @Green Bay W 72-69 61%    
  Wed, Feb 4 184 @Robert Morris L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Feb 7 199 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Feb 12 296 Detroit Mercy W 78-67 84%    
  Sun, Feb 15 334 @Cleveland St. W 81-73 76%    
  Thu, Feb 19 356 IU Indianapolis W 93-75 94%    
  Sun, Feb 22 184 Robert Morris W 73-68 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 199 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 206 @Northern Kentucky W 74-73 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.1 7.0 4.8 1.9 0.5 23.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.0 6.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.6 7.3 4.5 0.9 0.0 16.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 6.1 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.6 4.6 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 7.0 10.3 13.6 15.5 15.6 13.2 9.1 5.1 1.9 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 99.6% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 93.3% 4.8    4.1 0.7 0.0
16-4 76.9% 7.0    4.6 2.2 0.2
15-5 46.3% 6.1    2.5 2.8 0.7 0.1
14-6 16.2% 2.5    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.2% 23.2 14.0 7.0 1.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.5% 55.5% 55.5% 11.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.9% 40.8% 40.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1
17-3 5.1% 40.2% 40.2% 13.4 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.9 0.1 3.1
16-4 9.1% 34.2% 34.2% 13.9 0.0 0.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 6.0
15-5 13.2% 26.2% 26.2% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.1 0.1 9.7
14-6 15.6% 21.8% 21.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.6 0.2 12.2
13-7 15.5% 18.4% 18.4% 14.9 0.0 0.7 1.7 0.4 12.6
12-8 13.6% 14.5% 14.5% 15.3 0.1 1.2 0.7 11.7
11-9 10.3% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 9.2
10-10 7.0% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.1 0.5 6.5
9-11 4.1% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.9
8-12 2.3% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.1 2.2
7-13 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-14 0.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.9% 19.9% 0.0% 14.4 0.1 0.5 3.1 6.8 6.6 2.8 80.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.6 42.9 50.0 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%