Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.1#142
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#235
Pace68.2#218
Improvement+1.2#99

Offense
Total Offense-0.5#177
First Shot-2.3#241
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#74
Layup/Dunks-0.8#205
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#200
Freethrows-1.5#277
Improvement+1.0#97

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#123
First Shot+3.1#81
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#288
Layups/Dunks-8.3#362
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#251
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.5#1
Freethrows+0.4#145
Improvement+0.2#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.2% 25.7% 19.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.9 14.4
.500 or above 84.1% 92.0% 78.4%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 94.9% 91.3%
Conference Champion 27.5% 32.1% 24.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round22.0% 25.6% 19.5%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marshall (Away) - 41.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 34 - 64 - 9
Quad 414 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Thu, Nov 6 72 @California L 67-77 18%     0 - 1 +0.8 -0.8 +1.6
  Tue, Nov 11 163 Toledo L 71-81 67%     0 - 2 -13.3 -3.5 -10.4
  Sat, Nov 15 272 Radford W 92-59 74%     1 - 2 +27.2 +12.9 +13.2
  Sun, Nov 16 119 Kent St. L 72-76 OT 43%     1 - 3 -1.1 -5.9 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 25 345 @Stetson W 79-62 83%     2 - 3 +8.1 +8.7 +0.9
  Fri, Nov 28 53 @Butler L 69-94 13%     2 - 4 -11.8 -3.5 -6.5
  Wed, Dec 3 166 @Youngstown St. L 68-69 44%     2 - 5 0 - 1 +1.5 -0.7 +2.1
  Sun, Dec 7 277 Green Bay W 86-58 83%     3 - 5 1 - 1 +18.7 +10.0 +9.6
  Sat, Dec 13 154 @Marshall L 73-75 42%    
  Tue, Dec 16 108 Miami (OH) W 76-75 51%    
  Mon, Dec 22 225 Eastern Michigan W 73-65 77%    
  Mon, Dec 29 144 Oakland W 82-79 61%    
  Thu, Jan 1 223 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-71 76%    
  Sun, Jan 4 355 @IU Indianapolis W 90-78 87%    
  Fri, Jan 9 298 @Detroit Mercy W 75-69 70%    
  Sun, Jan 11 144 @Oakland L 79-82 40%    
  Thu, Jan 15 166 Youngstown St. W 73-68 66%    
  Wed, Jan 21 325 Cleveland St. W 83-70 89%    
  Sat, Jan 24 193 Northern Kentucky W 76-70 71%    
  Fri, Jan 30 223 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-74 56%    
  Sun, Feb 1 277 @Green Bay W 73-69 66%    
  Wed, Feb 4 184 @Robert Morris L 70-71 49%    
  Sat, Feb 7 216 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-72 75%    
  Thu, Feb 12 298 Detroit Mercy W 78-66 85%    
  Sun, Feb 15 325 @Cleveland St. W 80-73 75%    
  Thu, Feb 19 355 IU Indianapolis W 93-75 95%    
  Sun, Feb 22 184 Robert Morris W 73-67 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 216 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-75 55%    
  Sat, Feb 28 193 @Northern Kentucky W 73-72 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.7 8.2 6.0 2.8 0.6 27.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.8 8.0 6.4 2.4 0.4 0.0 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.9 4.2 1.0 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 5.3 3.2 0.4 0.0 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.2 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.8 6.4 9.3 12.3 14.7 15.3 14.1 10.8 6.4 2.8 0.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6
18-2 99.2% 2.8    2.7 0.1
17-3 93.7% 6.0    5.1 0.8 0.0
16-4 76.5% 8.2    5.6 2.5 0.2
15-5 47.7% 6.7    3.0 2.9 0.8 0.0
14-6 17.4% 2.7    0.6 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 27.5% 27.5 17.7 7.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.6% 58.3% 58.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 2.8% 47.5% 47.5% 12.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.2 1.5
17-3 6.4% 41.0% 41.0% 13.3 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.1 3.8
16-4 10.8% 35.3% 35.3% 13.7 0.2 1.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 7.0
15-5 14.1% 29.8% 29.8% 14.0 0.1 0.9 2.2 1.0 0.1 9.9
14-6 15.3% 23.7% 23.7% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.1 11.7
13-7 14.7% 18.7% 18.7% 14.8 0.1 0.8 1.5 0.4 12.0
12-8 12.3% 14.9% 14.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.5 10.5
11-9 9.3% 10.5% 10.5% 15.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 8.3
10-10 6.4% 7.5% 7.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.0
9-11 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 3.6
8-12 1.9% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 1.8
7-13 0.9% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.9
6-14 0.4% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-15 0.1% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.2% 22.2% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.5 7.8 6.4 2.1 77.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.1 7.3 2.4 65.9 22.0 2.4