Wright St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#201
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#233
Pace78.2#16
Improvement+0.0#185

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#202
First Shot+1.1#136
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#316
Layup/Dunks+0.7#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+8.5#1
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.3#346
Freethrows-1.8#307
Improvement+0.4#118

Defense
Total Defense-0.7#200
First Shot-1.7#237
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#93
Layups/Dunks-1.0#222
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#231
Freethrows+1.2#85
Improvement-0.3#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.9% 12.6% 9.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.7
.500 or above 63.2% 85.2% 55.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.2% 85.2% 55.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.2% 3.6% 4.4%
First Round8.3% 11.3% 7.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 26.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 33 - 73 - 9
Quad 412 - 515 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 123   Davidson L 97-102 2OT 44%     0 - 1 -5.1 +1.6 -5.6
  Nov 12, 2022 248   @ Louisville W 73-72 51%     1 - 1 -0.8 -6.1 +5.2
  Nov 15, 2022 243   Bowling Green W 80-71 70%     2 - 1 +2.0 -5.7 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2022 218   Abilene Christian W 77-61 53%     3 - 1 +13.7 -4.1 +16.5
  Nov 22, 2022 158   UC Riverside L 65-70 42%     3 - 2 -4.6 -9.1 +4.6
  Nov 23, 2022 213   Weber St. W 87-65 52%     4 - 2 +19.8 +14.8 +4.9
  Dec 01, 2022 242   Robert Morris L 59-80 70%     4 - 3 0 - 1 -27.9 -13.7 -15.0
  Dec 04, 2022 131   Youngstown St. L 77-88 46%     4 - 4 0 - 2 -11.6 -5.0 -6.0
  Dec 10, 2022 163   @ Western Kentucky L 60-64 33%     4 - 5 -1.0 -12.8 +11.9
  Dec 14, 2022 108   @ Akron L 54-66 22%     4 - 6 -5.6 -14.8 +9.2
  Dec 22, 2022 297   @ Miami (OH) W 88-80 61%     5 - 6 +3.4 +7.3 -4.1
  Dec 29, 2022 210   @ Northern Kentucky L 64-78 41%     5 - 7 0 - 3 -13.3 -2.5 -11.7
  Jan 02, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 82-68 86%     6 - 7 1 - 3 +1.0 +0.9 -0.1
  Jan 06, 2023 222   Detroit Mercy W 90-85 65%     7 - 7 2 - 3 -0.6 +2.1 -3.1
  Jan 08, 2023 249   Oakland L 73-75 71%     7 - 8 2 - 4 -9.4 -3.2 -6.3
  Jan 12, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 99-67 88%     8 - 8 3 - 4 +17.4 +24.6 -5.2
  Jan 14, 2023 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-74 OT 42%     9 - 8 4 - 4 +4.5 -7.1 +10.9
  Jan 19, 2023 204   Purdue Fort Wayne L 80-88 61%     9 - 9 4 - 5 -12.5 -4.7 -6.8
  Jan 21, 2023 180   Cleveland St. L 77-85 56%     9 - 10 4 - 6 -11.1 -1.2 -9.4
  Jan 26, 2023 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 93-86 63%     10 - 10 5 - 6 +2.0 -0.6 +1.2
  Jan 28, 2023 362   Green Bay W 77-46 95%     11 - 10 6 - 6 +11.0 -5.4 +16.6
  Feb 02, 2023 131   @ Youngstown St. L 77-83 26%    
  Feb 04, 2023 242   @ Robert Morris L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 08, 2023 359   IUPUI W 83-66 95%    
  Feb 10, 2023 210   Northern Kentucky W 69-66 63%    
  Feb 17, 2023 180   @ Cleveland St. L 70-74 35%    
  Feb 19, 2023 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-77 39%    
  Feb 23, 2023 249   @ Oakland W 78-77 50%    
  Feb 25, 2023 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 79-80 44%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 1.5 0.1 2.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 5.0 1.0 0.0 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 9.1 3.8 0.1 14.0 5th
6th 0.6 8.9 9.0 0.4 18.8 6th
7th 0.3 5.9 13.1 1.9 0.0 21.2 7th
8th 0.3 4.0 11.9 4.4 0.0 20.7 8th
9th 0.2 2.6 7.0 4.0 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 2.9 11.3 22.4 27.6 21.5 10.6 3.1 0.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 25.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.4% 26.5% 26.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 3.1% 20.5% 20.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 2.5
12-8 10.6% 15.4% 15.4% 15.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 9.0
11-9 21.5% 11.8% 11.8% 15.5 0.1 1.0 1.4 19.0
10-10 27.6% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.0 0.3 2.4 24.9
9-11 22.4% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 20.9
8-12 11.3% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.7
7-13 2.9% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.1 2.7
6-14 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.9% 9.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.9 90.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 26.5% 14.3 4.4 9.8 11.3 1.0
Lose Out 0.2% 1.1% 16.0 1.1