Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.7#40
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#99
Pace54.2#358
Improvement+3.3#17

Offense
Total Offense+3.3#91
First Shot+1.7#129
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#81
Layup/Dunks+0.2#157
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#119
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#205
Freethrows+1.5#86
Improvement+1.4#53

Defense
Total Defense+7.3#21
First Shot+7.0#19
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#151
Layups/Dunks+5.2#32
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#286
Freethrows+3.4#16
Improvement+2.0#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 3.6% 3.8% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 10.6% 11.1% 3.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46.7% 48.2% 25.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 42.7% 44.2% 22.4%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 9.0
.500 or above 86.0% 87.2% 68.3%
.500 or above in Conference 74.9% 76.9% 45.8%
Conference Champion 6.3% 6.5% 2.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.5% 3.9%
First Four6.3% 6.4% 5.1%
First Round43.4% 44.8% 22.9%
Second Round23.1% 23.8% 12.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.6% 7.8% 4.2%
Elite Eight2.8% 3.0% 1.0%
Final Four1.1% 1.1% 0.7%
Championship Game0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Home) - 93.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 35 - 214 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 101   Navy L 58-66 81%     0 - 1 -6.5 -6.5 -0.7
  Nov 12, 2021 248   Radford W 73-52 95%     1 - 1 +13.4 +9.9 +6.7
  Nov 16, 2021 7   @ Houston L 47-67 18%     1 - 2 +0.6 -5.7 +2.4
  Nov 19, 2021 307   Coppin St. W 68-52 97%     2 - 2 +4.9 -0.8 +7.3
  Nov 22, 2021 159   Georgia W 65-55 83%     3 - 2 +10.5 -1.4 +12.8
  Nov 23, 2021 54   Providence W 58-40 59%     4 - 2 +26.4 +3.1 +27.9
  Nov 26, 2021 313   Lehigh W 61-43 97%     5 - 2 +6.4 -7.1 +16.1
  Nov 29, 2021 19   Iowa L 74-75 47%     5 - 3 +10.4 +18.9 -8.7
  Dec 03, 2021 200   Pittsburgh W 64-49 94%    
  Dec 07, 2021 163   @ James Madison W 65-58 77%    
  Dec 18, 2021 325   Fairleigh Dickinson W 76-53 99%    
  Dec 22, 2021 50   Clemson W 60-55 67%    
  Jan 01, 2022 71   @ Syracuse W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 04, 2022 50   @ Clemson L 57-58 46%    
  Jan 08, 2022 43   @ North Carolina L 65-68 40%    
  Jan 12, 2022 27   Virginia Tech W 58-57 52%    
  Jan 15, 2022 81   Wake Forest W 65-58 73%    
  Jan 19, 2022 200   @ Pittsburgh W 61-52 81%    
  Jan 22, 2022 64   @ North Carolina St. W 62-61 49%    
  Jan 24, 2022 36   Louisville W 60-58 58%    
  Jan 29, 2022 63   @ Notre Dame W 62-61 51%    
  Feb 01, 2022 125   Boston College W 63-52 83%    
  Feb 05, 2022 120   Miami (FL) W 67-56 82%    
  Feb 07, 2022 5   @ Duke L 57-67 19%    
  Feb 12, 2022 88   Georgia Tech W 63-56 76%    
  Feb 14, 2022 27   @ Virginia Tech L 55-61 31%    
  Feb 19, 2022 120   @ Miami (FL) W 64-59 66%    
  Feb 23, 2022 5   Duke L 60-64 36%    
  Feb 26, 2022 31   Florida St. W 61-60 54%    
  Mar 05, 2022 36   @ Louisville L 57-61 36%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.4 1.3 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.2 6.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 3.3 4.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 10.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.3 2.0 0.5 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.5 5.1 2.0 0.3 11.3 4th
5th 0.3 2.8 5.0 2.2 0.2 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.0 4.9 2.5 0.4 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.0 3.4 0.7 9.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.3 0.8 0.1 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.3 0.1 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 3.0 2.0 0.3 6.0 10th
11th 0.6 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.3 2.6 12th
13th 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 15th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.4 7.0 9.6 12.1 12.5 12.4 12.6 10.1 7.6 4.4 2.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 97.7% 0.8    0.8 0.1
17-3 75.4% 1.5    1.0 0.5 0.0
16-4 44.7% 2.0    1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 17.7% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-6 4.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 6.3% 6.3 3.4 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.9% 100.0% 26.9% 73.1% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.0% 100.0% 22.2% 77.8% 4.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.4% 100.0% 20.1% 79.9% 5.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.6% 98.4% 17.8% 80.6% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.1 98.0%
14-6 10.1% 89.0% 11.8% 77.2% 8.3 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.5 2.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 1.1 87.5%
13-7 12.6% 81.1% 9.4% 71.7% 9.2 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 2.6 2.5 1.7 0.3 2.4 79.1%
12-8 12.4% 57.1% 6.4% 50.7% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.4 0.4 5.3 54.2%
11-9 12.5% 29.7% 2.8% 26.9% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.0 8.8 27.7%
10-10 12.1% 11.4% 2.0% 9.4% 10.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.0 10.7 9.6%
9-11 9.6% 2.3% 0.9% 1.4% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4 1.4%
8-12 7.0% 0.3% 0.3% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
7-13 4.4% 1.4% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-14 2.3% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 2.3
5-15 1.2% 1.2
4-16 0.6% 0.6
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 46.7% 6.9% 39.8% 8.3 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.8 4.3 5.7 7.0 7.5 6.8 6.9 2.2 0.1 0.0 53.3 42.7%