Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#26
Expected Predictive Rating+16.7#26
Pace66.6#258
Improvement+1.1#106

Offense
Total Offense+10.1#14
First Shot+6.7#26
After Offensive Rebound+3.4#28
Layup/Dunks+0.3#168
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#302
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.8#12
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement-0.1#198

Defense
Total Defense+4.7#54
First Shot+6.2#26
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#287
Layups/Dunks+1.3#129
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#223
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#64
Freethrows+1.9#72
Improvement+1.3#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 0.8% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 3.1% 3.4% 1.2%
Top 4 Seed 18.2% 19.5% 9.7%
Top 6 Seed 44.4% 46.5% 29.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 89.2% 90.4% 81.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 88.4% 89.7% 79.9%
Average Seed 6.6 6.5 7.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 90.3% 91.1% 84.8%
Conference Champion 8.9% 9.4% 5.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four4.3% 4.0% 6.6%
First Round87.0% 88.4% 77.4%
Second Round58.4% 60.0% 47.1%
Sweet Sixteen23.3% 24.4% 15.7%
Elite Eight8.8% 9.2% 6.0%
Final Four3.3% 3.4% 2.3%
Championship Game1.1% 1.1% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.2%

Next Game: Maryland (Home) - 87.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 6
Quad 27 - 213 - 8
Quad 35 - 018 - 9
Quad 46 - 024 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 344 Rider W 87-53 99%     1 - 0 +19.2 +18.8 +3.6
  Fri, Nov 7 348 NC Central W 81-62 99%     2 - 0 +3.6 +11.9 -6.1
  Tue, Nov 11 213 Hampton W 91-53 96%     3 - 0 +31.7 +19.0 +14.3
  Sat, Nov 15 154 Marshall W 104-78 94%     4 - 0 +23.1 +22.0 -0.8
  Fri, Nov 21 61 Northwestern W 83-78 72%     5 - 0 +13.8 +11.6 +2.2
  Sun, Nov 23 53 Butler L 73-80 67%     5 - 1 +3.2 +5.0 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 198 Queens W 94-69 96%     6 - 1 +19.6 +22.4 -0.7
  Wed, Dec 3 42 @Texas W 88-69 52%     7 - 1 +33.4 +25.5 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 6 70 Dayton W 86-73 75%     8 - 1 +20.9 +13.7 +6.5
  Tue, Dec 9 346 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84-60 99%     9 - 1 +9.1 +10.0 +0.2
  Sat, Dec 20 93 Maryland W 81-69 87%    
  Mon, Dec 22 242 American W 87-65 98%    
  Wed, Dec 31 65 @Virginia Tech W 78-75 62%    
  Sat, Jan 3 28 @North Carolina St. L 78-80 41%    
  Wed, Jan 7 72 California W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Jan 10 90 Stanford W 82-70 87%    
  Tue, Jan 13 14 @Louisville L 77-83 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 35 @SMU L 78-79 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 20 North Carolina W 78-76 58%    
  Tue, Jan 27 59 @Notre Dame W 73-71 59%    
  Sat, Jan 31 150 @Boston College W 76-65 85%    
  Tue, Feb 3 104 Pittsburgh W 79-65 89%    
  Sat, Feb 7 62 Syracuse W 78-69 79%    
  Tue, Feb 10 100 @Florida St. W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 29 Ohio St. W 78-77 52%    
  Wed, Feb 18 134 @Georgia Tech W 79-69 82%    
  Sat, Feb 21 33 Miami (FL) W 78-74 66%    
  Tue, Feb 24 28 North Carolina St. W 81-77 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 2 @Duke L 68-79 17%    
  Tue, Mar 3 49 Wake Forest W 80-73 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 65 Virginia Tech W 81-72 80%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.1 2.7 1.0 0.2 8.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.9 3.7 0.8 0.0 14.3 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.0 6.8 3.6 0.5 0.0 14.1 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.1 4.0 0.5 0.0 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.9 0.8 0.0 10.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.4 5.3 1.5 0.1 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.3 2.7 0.2 8.0 7th
8th 0.2 2.3 3.2 0.5 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.0 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.8 1.8 0.2 3.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 2.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.1 8.5 11.8 14.8 16.2 15.3 11.7 7.3 3.6 1.1 0.2 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 96.2% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
16-2 76.8% 2.7    1.7 0.9 0.1
15-3 42.5% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0
14-4 13.6% 1.6    0.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-5 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.9% 8.9 4.1 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 41.3% 58.7% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.1% 100.0% 24.4% 75.6% 2.3 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 3.6% 100.0% 21.5% 78.5% 3.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.3% 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3.9 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 11.7% 100.0% 12.5% 87.5% 4.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.2 3.6 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.3% 99.6% 9.0% 90.6% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 4.1 4.3 2.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
12-6 16.2% 98.5% 5.2% 93.3% 6.7 0.1 0.6 2.3 4.2 4.3 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.2 98.4%
11-7 14.8% 95.7% 3.3% 92.4% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.3 3.6 2.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 95.6%
10-8 11.8% 88.7% 2.3% 86.4% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.4 3.2 2.4 0.8 0.0 1.3 88.4%
9-9 8.5% 75.8% 1.5% 74.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.3 1.1 0.0 2.1 75.4%
8-10 5.1% 49.3% 0.7% 48.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.0 2.6 49.0%
7-11 2.6% 23.4% 0.3% 23.1% 10.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.0 2.0 23.2%
6-12 1.2% 6.8% 0.3% 6.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 6.6%
5-13 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9%
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 89.2% 6.8% 82.4% 6.6 0.8 2.4 5.6 9.5 12.5 13.6 12.8 11.0 9.8 7.5 3.7 0.1 10.8 88.4%