Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.2#17
Expected Predictive Rating+17.2#10
Pace57.6#359
Improvement-0.1#203

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#25
First Shot+8.3#8
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#264
Layup/Dunks+1.9#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#45
Freethrows+2.6#23
Improvement-0.4#260

Defense
Total Defense+7.0#24
First Shot+4.7#54
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#13
Layups/Dunks+4.2#38
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#88
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#287
Freethrows+1.9#51
Improvement+0.3#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 2.9% 4.1% 0.5%
Top 2 Seed 10.8% 15.0% 3.0%
Top 4 Seed 46.0% 55.4% 28.5%
Top 6 Seed 79.5% 86.4% 66.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.7% 99.3% 97.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.3% 99.1% 97.0%
Average Seed 4.9 4.4 5.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 56.3% 65.3% 39.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.3% 1.2%
First Round98.4% 99.2% 96.9%
Second Round74.8% 78.5% 67.7%
Sweet Sixteen40.0% 43.4% 33.6%
Elite Eight18.2% 20.0% 14.7%
Final Four8.5% 9.5% 6.7%
Championship Game3.8% 4.3% 2.9%
National Champion1.6% 1.8% 1.2%

Next Game: Syracuse (Away) - 65.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 4
Quad 25 - 110 - 5
Quad 35 - 015 - 5
Quad 49 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 255   NC Central W 73-61 97%     1 - 0 +4.5 +11.0 -4.4
  Nov 11, 2022 351   Monmouth W 89-42 99%     2 - 0 +31.6 +23.4 +14.3
  Nov 18, 2022 14   Baylor W 86-79 47%     3 - 0 +21.8 +21.6 +0.6
  Nov 20, 2022 18   Illinois W 70-61 51%     4 - 0 +23.0 +9.7 +13.9
  Nov 25, 2022 305   Maryland Eastern Shore W 72-45 98%     5 - 0 +16.5 +4.7 +14.5
  Nov 29, 2022 58   @ Michigan W 70-68 59%     6 - 0 +13.8 +11.2 +2.8
  Dec 03, 2022 133   Florida St. W 62-57 91%     7 - 0 1 - 0 +4.5 -6.5 +11.4
  Dec 06, 2022 97   James Madison W 55-50 86%     8 - 0 +7.3 -8.7 +16.6
  Dec 17, 2022 2   Houston L 61-69 40%     8 - 1 +8.7 +8.3 -1.1
  Dec 20, 2022 35   @ Miami (FL) L 64-66 49%     8 - 2 1 - 1 +12.5 -1.5 +13.9
  Dec 28, 2022 336   Albany W 66-46 99%     9 - 2 +6.7 -5.3 +14.8
  Dec 31, 2022 158   @ Georgia Tech W 74-56 85%     10 - 2 2 - 1 +21.3 +9.5 +13.0
  Jan 03, 2023 67   @ Pittsburgh L 65-68 63%     10 - 3 2 - 2 +7.8 +5.9 +1.4
  Jan 07, 2023 76   Syracuse W 73-66 82%     11 - 3 3 - 2 +11.3 +3.7 +7.9
  Jan 10, 2023 25   North Carolina W 65-58 64%     12 - 3 4 - 2 +17.6 +3.0 +15.3
  Jan 14, 2023 133   @ Florida St. W 67-58 81%     13 - 3 5 - 2 +13.8 +7.4 +8.0
  Jan 18, 2023 46   Virginia Tech W 78-68 74%     14 - 3 6 - 2 +17.6 +21.5 -2.2
  Jan 21, 2023 70   @ Wake Forest W 76-67 63%     15 - 3 7 - 2 +19.7 +11.5 +8.9
  Jan 28, 2023 148   Boston College W 76-57 92%     16 - 3 8 - 2 +17.3 +9.5 +9.0
  Jan 30, 2023 76   @ Syracuse W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 04, 2023 46   @ Virginia Tech W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 07, 2023 39   North Carolina St. W 70-64 71%    
  Feb 11, 2023 22   Duke W 65-62 64%    
  Feb 15, 2023 261   @ Louisville W 72-55 94%    
  Feb 18, 2023 128   Notre Dame W 72-57 92%    
  Feb 22, 2023 148   @ Boston College W 67-56 83%    
  Feb 25, 2023 25   @ North Carolina L 66-68 42%    
  Feb 28, 2023 55   Clemson W 68-61 77%    
  Mar 04, 2023 261   Louisville W 74-52 98%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 11.3 22.1 16.6 5.0 56.3 1st
2nd 0.3 6.8 12.1 5.1 0.4 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.5 1.9 0.1 10.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.6 1.7 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.1 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.4 1.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.7 16.3 25.3 27.3 17.1 5.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 5.0    4.9 0.1
17-3 97.5% 16.6    14.5 2.1
16-4 81.1% 22.1    12.9 8.3 0.9 0.0
15-5 44.6% 11.3    2.6 5.0 3.0 0.7 0.1
14-6 7.5% 1.2    0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 56.3% 56.3 34.9 15.7 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 5.0% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 1.9 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 100.0%
17-3 17.1% 100.0% 22.7% 77.3% 2.9 1.0 4.6 6.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
16-4 27.3% 99.9% 20.0% 79.9% 4.1 0.1 1.1 6.2 10.7 6.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 25.3% 99.5% 17.8% 81.7% 5.3 0.0 0.9 5.1 8.7 7.0 2.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 16.3% 98.1% 15.4% 82.7% 6.6 0.1 0.4 2.4 4.9 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.3 97.7%
13-7 6.7% 93.8% 13.4% 80.3% 8.1 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.8 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.4 92.8%
12-8 2.0% 84.6% 10.3% 74.3% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.3 82.9%
11-9 0.3% 63.4% 9.8% 53.7% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 59.5%
10-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.7% 18.8% 79.9% 4.9 2.9 8.0 15.0 20.2 18.6 14.9 8.8 4.9 3.2 1.8 0.5 1.3 98.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.0% 100.0% 1.9 35.0 44.9 18.1 2.0