Virginia
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#90
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#62
Pace55.2#364
Improvement+0.4#160

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#145
First Shot+2.0#122
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#234
Layup/Dunks-3.6#297
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#21
Freethrows-1.1#252
Improvement+0.4#145

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#57
First Shot+3.4#80
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#79
Layups/Dunks+1.2#132
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#303
Freethrows+3.5#18
Improvement+0.0#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.9% 14.5% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.2% 13.4% 4.8%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 10.0
.500 or above 55.3% 72.9% 48.5%
.500 or above in Conference 37.9% 56.4% 30.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.3% 8.1%
First Four3.0% 4.7% 2.3%
First Round6.3% 12.0% 4.1%
Second Round2.5% 5.1% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 1.3% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 32 - 9
Quad 24 - 56 - 14
Quad 34 - 210 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 278   Campbell W 65-56 92%     1 - 0 -0.4 +2.5 -1.2
  Nov 11, 2024 363   Coppin St. W 62-45 99%     2 - 0 -5.8 -12.9 +8.8
  Nov 15, 2024 56   Villanova W 70-60 36%     3 - 0 +19.6 +8.2 +12.5
  Nov 21, 2024 4   Tennessee L 42-64 10%     3 - 1 -1.8 -13.5 +8.2
  Nov 22, 2024 20   St. John's L 55-80 21%     3 - 2 -10.5 -4.3 -9.0
  Nov 26, 2024 313   Manhattan W 74-65 93%     4 - 2 -2.1 +4.3 -5.2
  Nov 29, 2024 326   Holy Cross W 67-41 94%     5 - 2 +13.7 +0.3 +19.0
  Dec 04, 2024 10   @ Florida L 69-87 9%     5 - 3 +2.5 +9.6 -8.8
  Dec 07, 2024 62   @ SMU L 64-70 28%    
  Dec 12, 2024 288   Bethune-Cookman W 70-54 93%    
  Dec 18, 2024 32   Memphis L 64-68 36%    
  Dec 22, 2024 236   American W 65-52 89%    
  Dec 31, 2024 72   North Carolina St. W 63-62 54%    
  Jan 04, 2025 43   Louisville L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 08, 2025 109   @ California L 65-66 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 93   @ Stanford L 62-65 40%    
  Jan 15, 2025 62   SMU L 66-67 48%    
  Jan 18, 2025 43   @ Louisville L 60-68 23%    
  Jan 21, 2025 145   Boston College W 65-57 77%    
  Jan 25, 2025 80   Notre Dame W 62-60 57%    
  Jan 29, 2025 87   @ Miami (FL) L 65-68 38%    
  Feb 01, 2025 129   Virginia Tech W 64-57 74%    
  Feb 03, 2025 36   @ Pittsburgh L 59-68 20%    
  Feb 08, 2025 111   Georgia Tech W 67-62 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 129   @ Virginia Tech W 61-60 54%    
  Feb 17, 2025 2   Duke L 55-67 15%    
  Feb 22, 2025 17   @ North Carolina L 63-75 14%    
  Feb 26, 2025 89   @ Wake Forest L 58-61 40%    
  Mar 01, 2025 28   Clemson L 59-63 36%    
  Mar 04, 2025 61   Florida St. L 63-64 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 96   @ Syracuse L 65-68 41%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 2.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.1 3.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 2.0 3.4 0.9 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.2 0.2 7.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.7 1.6 0.1 7.7 10th
11th 0.5 3.9 3.4 0.3 0.0 8.1 11th
12th 0.2 2.2 4.7 1.0 0.0 8.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 3.9 2.6 0.2 0.0 7.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.8 3.5 0.5 0.0 7.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 1.4 0.0 6.8 15th
16th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.8 0.2 6.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 4.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 3.3 18th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.3 6.9 9.6 11.8 13.3 13.2 11.7 9.7 6.9 4.6 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-2 82.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 49.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
16-4 26.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 7.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 97.6% 14.6% 82.9% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.1%
17-3 0.2% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 94.3% 11.1% 83.2% 7.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.6%
15-5 1.5% 79.8% 5.9% 73.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 78.5%
14-6 2.8% 58.3% 4.1% 54.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.0 1.2 56.5%
13-7 4.6% 35.6% 3.3% 32.4% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 2.9 33.5%
12-8 6.9% 19.3% 1.2% 18.0% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 5.6 18.3%
11-9 9.7% 8.3% 0.7% 7.6% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 8.9 7.7%
10-10 11.7% 2.6% 0.3% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 11.4 2.3%
9-11 13.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.4% 11.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.4%
8-12 13.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.1%
7-13 11.8% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 11.8
6-14 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 9.6
5-15 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 6.9
4-16 4.3% 4.3
3-17 2.0% 2.0
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 7.9% 0.7% 7.2% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.8 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.1 7.2%