Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#296
Expected Predictive Rating-7.6#279
Pace68.3#218
Improvement+3.2#26

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#251
First Shot-2.7#252
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#212
Layup/Dunks-3.3#286
2 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#6
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.0#345
Freethrows+1.1#114
Improvement+1.8#52

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#311
First Shot-1.0#214
After Offensive Rebounds-3.0#341
Layups/Dunks+1.0#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#296
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement+1.4#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.7% 3.2% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 6.3% 15.3% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 30.9% 52.7% 26.0%
Conference Champion 1.0% 2.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 3.4% 1.0% 3.9%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.9%
First Round1.3% 2.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 48 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 192 @Illinois-Chicago L 71-91 22%     0 - 1 -19.0 -9.9 -6.8
  Fri, Nov 7 56 @Notre Dame L 70-102 4%     0 - 2 -19.3 -2.3 -14.4
  Sat, Nov 15 167 @Toledo L 83-90 19%     0 - 3 -4.8 +1.5 -5.7
  Tue, Nov 18 224 Eastern Michigan L 62-72 48%     0 - 4 -16.8 -12.9 -3.9
  Fri, Nov 21 11 @Michigan St. L 56-84 1%     0 - 5 -6.9 -3.2 -4.3
  Sun, Nov 23 109 @DePaul L 75-95 10%     0 - 6 -13.4 +10.3 -24.5
  Sat, Nov 29 353 @Niagara W 70-66 61%     1 - 6 -6.1 -1.6 -4.2
  Wed, Dec 3 357 IU Indianapolis W 92-78 82%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -3.0 +8.0 -11.2
  Sat, Dec 6 329 @Cleveland St. W 71-59 49%     3 - 6 2 - 0 +5.0 -0.1 +6.4
  Sun, Dec 14 220 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-81 26%     3 - 7 2 - 1 -4.6 +3.8 -8.6
  Mon, Dec 29 166 @Youngstown St. L 67-77 18%    
  Fri, Jan 2 183 Robert Morris L 70-73 40%    
  Fri, Jan 9 153 Wright St. L 70-75 34%    
  Sun, Jan 11 329 Cleveland St. W 81-75 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 195 @Northern Kentucky L 70-78 23%    
  Sat, Jan 17 357 @IU Indianapolis W 87-83 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 220 Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-78 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 144 Oakland L 79-84 31%    
  Fri, Jan 30 195 Northern Kentucky L 73-75 43%    
  Wed, Feb 4 233 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-78 29%    
  Sat, Feb 7 264 @Green Bay L 69-74 34%    
  Thu, Feb 12 153 @Wright St. L 67-78 17%    
  Sun, Feb 15 166 Youngstown St. L 70-74 37%    
  Fri, Feb 20 233 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-76 49%    
  Sun, Feb 22 264 Green Bay W 72-71 55%    
  Wed, Feb 25 183 @Robert Morris L 67-76 22%    
  Sat, Feb 28 144 @Oakland L 76-87 16%    
Projected Record 9 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.4 2.2 2.5 0.5 0.0 5.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.0 1.0 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.5 3.4 5.2 1.9 0.1 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 4.1 6.7 2.9 0.3 14.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.9 7.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 19.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.7 7.2 7.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 22.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.5 3.6 2.4 0.9 0.1 10.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.3 1.2 4.0 7.7 11.5 14.5 15.1 14.8 11.7 8.7 5.4 2.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 86.0% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 53.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 19.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 5.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 12.0% 12.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 15.8% 15.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.4% 10.4% 10.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-7 2.9% 7.5% 7.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
12-8 5.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.6 0.1 0.2 5.1
11-9 8.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.4
10-10 11.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 11.4
9-11 14.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 14.6
8-12 15.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 15.0
7-13 14.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.5
6-14 11.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.5
5-15 7.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 7.7
4-16 4.0% 4.0
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.4 1.3 98.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%