Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -4.4 239
Results Rating -2.8 211
Consistency 0.13 50
Pace 71.3 102
Improvement +6.9 11

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 186 D+ C- C+ C- F
Defense D+ 279 C- D+ D D D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 340 D+ 54% 281 -5.5 345
2 Pt. Jumpers 61% 10 C+ 40% 106 +6.5 4
Three Pointers 33% 335 C+ 35% 141 -3.7 305
Shot Selection/Accuracy F -2.4 362 C -0.2 174
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 265
Second Chance C+ 31.7% 140 D- 0.90 335 C- 0.29 237
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 109
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 176
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 123
Freethrows D+ 0.27 275 B+ 78% 21 C- 0.21 210
Total Offense C -0.9 186

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 235 D+ 12.8% 296
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 31% 100 B- 3.8% 99
Three Pointers B- 88% 107 C 0.8% 170
Total D+ 52% 257 C 5.6% 197


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 127 C- 59% 217 +1.8 233
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% 333 B- 36% 104 -2.2 29
Three Pointers 44% 93 C 34% 158 +1.1 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy D +0.8 317 C -0.1 177
1st FG Attempt C- 1.04 203
Second Chance C- 31.6% 246 D 1.11 291 D+ 0.35 282
Turnovers from Steals D+ 8.3% 268
Other Turnovers D- 5.9% 341
Turnovers D 14.2% 325
Freethrows D 0.34 299 C- 73% 227 D 0.25 302
Total Defense D+ -3.5 279

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 54% 290 D+ 8.3% 285
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 26% 205 C 4.7% 186
Three Pointers D 89% 329 C+ 1.2% 105
Total D 62% 317 D+ 4.6% 251

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 182 16.5 40
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 133 0.21 310
Consistency 0.11 57 0.11 80
Improvement +3.5 38 +3.3 42

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 251 237 213
Results Rating Rank 239 214 150
Conference Record 12 - 8 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 14% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 n/a
.500 or above 19% 36% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round7% 14% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 11
Quad 410 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 114 @Illinois-Chicago L 71 - 91 16% -6  40% 0 - 1 D- -14 D- -8 F F+ B- D+ -4 C- F B
 Fri, Nov 7 86 @Notre Dame L 70 - 102 10% -17  7% 0 - 2 F -22 D- -7 C+ F D+ F -13 D F F
 Sat, Nov 15 155 @Toledo L 83 - 90 24% -4  3% 0 - 3 C- -4 C -0 D+ D+ B C- -3 D- C- B+
 Tue, Nov 18 248 Eastern Michigan L 62 - 72 63% +1  48% 0 - 4 F+ -18 F -14 F C+ D+ D+ -4 D C C+
 Fri, Nov 21 9 @Michigan St. L 56 - 84 1% -16  0% 0 - 5 C- -5 D -5 C+ C- F C -0 A- F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 85 @DePaul L 75 - 95 10% -9  28% 0 - 6 D -10 A- +11 B C B F -22 F F F
 Sat, Nov 29 332 @Niagara W 70 - 66 66% +6  94% 1 - 6 C- -5 D -5 F C+ B- C+ +0 C+ C- F
 Wed, Dec 3 328 IU Indianapolis W 92 - 78 81% +10  85% 2 - 6 1 - 0 C +0 B +7 F A+ A+ D- -7 C D D
 Sat, Dec 6 320 @Cleveland St. W 71 - 59 59% +4  68% 3 - 6 2 - 0 B- +5 D -5 F F A+ A+ +12 A+ D B+
 Sun, Dec 14 257 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 81 42% -2  28% 3 - 7 2 - 1 D+ -6 C+ +2 F+ C- A+ F+ -9 D D+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 215 @Youngstown St. W 73 - 68 34% +7  71% 4 - 7 3 - 1 C+ +5 C- -1 C+ F D B+ +6 A B F
 Fri, Jan 2 158 Robert Morris L 77 - 85 45% -0  53% 4 - 8 3 - 2 D -11 C +1 B+ B F F -13 C+ F C+
 Fri, Jan 9 161 Wright St. L 82 - 84 45% -6  20% 4 - 9 3 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 D A+ B D- -8 D- B C+
 Sun, Jan 11 320 Cleveland St. W 94 - 84 79% +11  96% 5 - 9 4 - 3 C- -3 C +0 D+ B F D+ -4 F+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 15 187 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 96 30% -12  0% 5 - 10 4 - 4 F -24 F+ -8 F C+ A+ F -14 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 17 328 @IU Indianapolis W 80 - 77 63% -1  44% 6 - 10 5 - 4 C- -5 D- -6 F F+ C C+ +1 B- F C+
 Wed, Jan 21 257 Purdue Fort Wayne L 76 - 83 65% -2  34% 6 - 11 5 - 5 F+ -15 D -6 F+ F+ B+ F+ -9 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 169 Oakland L 87 - 95 47% -4  7% 6 - 12 5 - 6 D- -12 B +7 A C- C F -19 F D+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 187 Northern Kentucky W 90 - 77 52% +9  84% 7 - 12 6 - 6 B- +8 A +12 A+ B+ D D+ -4 B- B+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 261 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76 - 63 43% +8  98% 8 - 12 7 - 6 B +10 B- +5 B- B+ C- B+ +6 B- B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 210 @Green Bay L 63 - 76 33% -9  0% 8 - 13 7 - 7 D- -13 F -12 F+ F+ F C -1 A F F+
 Thu, Feb 12 161 @Wright St. W 77 - 74 24% +0  42% 9 - 13 8 - 7 B- +6 B +6 B+ C- B- C+ +0 B B F
 Sun, Feb 15 215 Youngstown St. W 76 - 70 57% +8  97% 10 - 13 9 - 7 C -0 D+ -3 D- D- A+ B- +3 B A- D
 Fri, Feb 20 261 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 91 - 86 66% +2  67% 11 - 13 10 - 7 C- -4 A- +10 A D B F -14 F F C
 Sun, Feb 22 210 Green Bay W 74 - 70 56% +1  59% 12 - 13 11 - 7 C- -2 D- -7 D D- F+ B +5 C- A B+
 Wed, Feb 25 158 @Robert Morris L 62 - 73 24% +1  55% 12 - 14 11 - 8 D+ -8 D- -6 D+ F+ D- C- -3 A+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 169 @Oakland W 95 - 89 26% +5  82% 13 - 14 12 - 8 B +8 A +14 A- D- A+ D -6 F D A-
 Wed, Mar 4 261 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 80 - 76 66%
Totals 14 - 14 12 - 8 -4 C -1 A+ C F D+ -3 C+ B+ C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C D+ C+ C+ C 31% 61% 33% F D+ C+ D- C- C+ D+ B+ C- D+ C- B- C C 41% 16% 44% D C- C- D D+ D D C- D
1.07 54% 40% 35% 0 -2 0.97 32% 0.9 .29 16% .27 78% .21 1.14 59% 36% 34% 0 +1 1.04 32% 1.1 .35 14% .34 73% .20
Nov
3		 Illinois-Chicago D- C- B F F 15% 25% 59% F F B F F+ B- C+ C+ C+ D+ A B F D+ 35% 18% 47% C C- B F F B F F F
0.90 56% 40% 23% -10 -2 0.78 39% 0.6 .22 19% .31 75% .23 1.15 44% 33% 42% 0 0 1.02 32% 1.5 .50 20% .57 83% .47
Nov
7		 Notre Dame D- F A+ D+ B- 25% 33% 43% F+ C+ D F F D+ F F F F B- A F D+ 38% 12% 50% F D B F F F C D C-
0.92 47% 55% 31% +1 -3 0.98 20% 0.6 .12 17% .16 50% .08 1.34 59% 29% 45% +7 +1 1.19 31% 1.8 .56 9% .32 73% .23
Nov
15		 Toledo C D+ B C- D+ 43% 21% 36% C- D+ C D- D+ B B- F+ C C- F F B+ D- 40% 17% 43% D- D- D- B C- B+ F A- F
1.09 56% 42% 33% -1 0 1.02 35% 0.9 .30 16% .26 65% .17 1.18 71% 67% 30% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.9 .30 18% .48 70% .34
Nov
18		 Eastern Michigan F F B- F F 24% 48% 28% F F C B- C+ D+ C A+ A D+ D B+ C- D+ 41% 22% 37% D- D D B C C+ F A+ F
0.89 46% 42% 0% -15 -5 0.63 30% 1.1 .33 17% .31 94% .29 1.03 63% 30% 35% +1 0 1.04 30% 0.9 .27 19% .44 60% .26
Nov
21		 Michigan St. D D- A+ F+ B 26% 38% 36% F C+ A F C- F F A+ D- C C- D- A+ A- 31% 25% 43% B- A- D F F C+ F C- F
0.82 46% 47% 28% -3 -3 0.90 30% 0.5 .14 22% .15 88% .13 1.22 63% 46% 27% -1 -1 0.98 44% 1.4 .61 17% .46 77% .35
Nov
23		 DePaul A- C B- A+ B+ 42% 35% 23% D B A F C B B- A+ A F C- A+ F F 36% 18% 46% C- F F F F F F F F
1.12 55% 41% 45% +4 -2 1.06 38% 0.7 .26 18% .34 84% .29 1.41 61% 22% 52% +11 0 1.24 41% 1.4 .59 10% .43 81% .35
Nov
29		 Niagara D D- B- F F 33% 31% 36% F+ F B- D+ C+ B- A+ C- A+ C+ F F A+ C+ 36% 13% 51% C+ C+ A+ F C- F C- A C+
1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41 1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16
Dec
3		 IU Indianapolis B D- F A+ F 45% 25% 30% D- F B A+ A+ A+ C A+ B+ D- D+ C- B C+ 32% 17% 51% D C F C+ D D C- A+ C+
1.29 54% 15% 44% -3 0 0.96 41% 1.7 .71 13% .39 88% .34 1.10 63% 40% 30% -1 0 1.00 34% 1.0 .34 14% .20 58% .11
Dec
6		 Cleveland St. D A+ D F D- 24% 49% 27% F F F+ F+ F A+ C+ D+ C A+ A+ A+ C- A+ 37% 15% 48% D A+ F A+ D B+ F B+ D-
1.12 83% 36% 29% +3 -5 0.98 29% 0.9 .26 9% .33 74% .24 0.93 41% 0% 36% -10 +1 0.83 43% 0.8 .33 21% .40 70% .28
Dec
14		 Purdue Fort Wayne C+ F D A+ D 33% 33% 33% F F+ C+ D+ C- A+ D A+ C F+ C- F B- D+ 45% 8% 47% F D B- F D+ F F A+ D
1.13 42% 32% 47% -1 -2 0.96 36% 1.0 .36 13% .24 86% .20 1.19 58% 75% 32% +1 +2 1.09 19% 1.3 .25 3% .41 52% .21
Dec
29		 Youngstown St. C- D B A+ B+ 24% 42% 33% F C+ B- F F D A+ D+ A B+ C A+ A- A+ 22% 13% 65% B+ A D A+ B F D- C+ D
1.05 55% 42% 47% +7 -4 1.09 33% 0.5 .17 20% .45 72% .32 0.98 58% 14% 29% -8 0 0.85 33% 0.7 .24 11% .32 70% .23
Jan
2		 Robert Morris C D B- A+ A 41% 37% 22% F B+ B- B+ B F A+ C+ A+ F C+ A+ C- B+ 51% 13% 36% F C+ F D F C+ F F F
1.13 53% 41% 60% +7 -2 1.13 32% 1.1 .35 21% .48 77% .37 1.24 54% 17% 35% -4 +2 0.98 48% 1.2 .58 19% .58 88% .51
Jan
9		 Wright St. C+ B+ C F C- 34% 42% 25% F D A A- A+ B A+ C+ A+ D- C- A- F D- 47% 20% 33% D+ D- A- C- B C+ F F F
1.16 67% 41% 23% 0 -3 0.96 40% 1.2 .49 14% .51 74% .38 1.19 61% 30% 44% +4 +1 1.12 25% 1.1 .29 17% .48 82% .39
Jan
11		 Cleveland St. C B+ F A+ C- 32% 32% 36% F D+ A+ F+ B F A+ A A+ D+ D+ A+ F F+ 34% 9% 57% F+ F+ B A+ A C+ F A+ C-
1.24 71% 24% 47% +7 -2 1.11 51% 0.9 .46 21% .52 84% .44 1.11 61% 0% 47% +8 +1 1.21 22% 0.8 .16 19% .39 63% .24
Jan
15		 Northern Kentucky F+ F D F F 24% 34% 42% F F C- A- C+ A+ F F F F D+ F F F 51% 9% 40% F F A- F C- F F D F
0.95 47% 33% 27% -9 -3 0.79 31% 1.3 .42 9% .13 33% .04 1.28 63% 60% 43% +10 +2 1.26 23% 1.4 .33 12% .47 74% .35
Jan
17		 IU Indianapolis D- C- F D- F 44% 24% 32% D- F C F F+ C A+ A+ A+ C+ D+ F A+ B+ 42% 11% 47% F B- F F F C+ B- C+ C+
1.07 59% 25% 31% -4 0 0.94 36% 0.8 .31 19% .49 87% .43 1.03 63% 50% 22% -5 +2 0.95 34% 1.2 .42 17% .16 70% .11
Jan
21		 Purdue Fort Wayne D C+ D- B+ D+ 28% 40% 32% F F+ D- F+ F+ B+ B- D+ C+ F+ A- A+ F D+ 35% 15% 50% C D+ C- B C+ F F C- F
1.06 63% 30% 39% 0 -3 0.96 28% 0.9 .26 17% .30 72% .22 1.15 47% 25% 44% +2 +1 1.07 23% 0.9 .20 8% .36 71% .26
Jan
24		 Oakland B A- A+ A A+ 18% 34% 48% F A B F C- C F A+ D F F F B- F+ 53% 11% 36% F F D C D+ F F F F
1.26 70% 63% 41% +16 -3 1.27 39% 0.8 .30 16% .14 100% .14 1.38 68% 50% 32% +5 +2 1.17 34% 1.1 .38 7% .41 85% .34
Jan
30		 Northern Kentucky A C B- A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% F+ A+ B B B+ D A+ D- A+ D+ C- F A B 32% 7% 61% D+ B- D+ A+ B+ F F A F
1.28 57% 42% 60% +18 -1 1.35 38% 1.3 .48 21% .50 64% .32 1.09 61% 50% 26% -6 +1 0.93 32% 0.7 .23 11% .43 63% .27
Feb
4		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee B- A D A+ B+ 43% 33% 24% F B- C+ A B+ C- D+ A C B+ F+ F A+ B- 35% 25% 40% C+ B- B+ B B+ C C- D- D+
1.19 70% 33% 45% +8 -1 1.15 31% 1.4 .42 17% .30 81% .25 0.99 65% 50% 16% -5 -1 0.90 26% 1.0 .26 16% .28 73% .20
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Green Bay F F D+ A+ D 20% 39% 41% F F+ C F F+ F D+ A C+ C A+ A C- A+ 50% 15% 35% D- A F D+ F F+ D F F
0.95 33% 33% 42% -2 -4 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 20% .32 82% .26 1.14 42% 29% 35% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.2 .43 12% .39 87% .34
Feb
12		 Wright St. B B A+ B A 33% 46% 21% F B+ B- D- C- B- F A+ F C+ B- F A+ B+ 44% 19% 37% D+ B C- A B F C- D- D+
1.16 65% 54% 36% +10 -4 1.15 34% 0.9 .31 15% .16 89% .14 1.12 54% 50% 25% -5 +1 0.94 33% 0.9 .30 11% .32 79% .25
Feb
15		 Youngstown St. D+ D F A D- 44% 33% 22% D- D- D- D D- A+ C B- C+ B- C- D+ A+ A- 54% 9% 37% F B A+ F+ A- D C B- C
1.06 54% 28% 42% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.9 .22 10% .34 77% .26 0.98 62% 40% 20% -5 +3 0.96 17% 1.2 .20 17% .27 69% .18
Feb
20		 Wisconsin-Milwaukee A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 20% 40% D+ A C+ F D B A+ A A+ F D+ F D F 50% 9% 41% F F F+ F F C D- A+ B
1.30 55% 70% 45% +12 0 1.26 32% 0.9 .29 14% .43 81% .35 1.23 59% 60% 36% +4 +2 1.15 38% 1.5 .57 16% .32 47% .15
Feb
22		 Green Bay D- C+ F B+ D+ 42% 32% 26% D D C- F D- F+ B A+ A+ B C A+ F C- 46% 18% 36% C- C- A A+ A B+ B- F D+
1.07 62% 25% 38% -1 -1 0.98 28% 0.9 .25 17% .39 95% .37 1.01 57% 22% 44% +2 +1 1.08 17% 0.8 .13 19% .32 89% .29
Feb
25		 Robert Morris D- C+ A- F C 30% 40% 30% F D+ D F F+ D- F B F C- B- A+ A+ A+ 35% 19% 46% C- A+ C F F F F F F
0.97 60% 45% 27% 0 -3 0.96 25% 0.8 .19 19% .19 80% .16 1.15 53% 22% 23% -13 0 0.77 36% 1.4 .50 9% .38 77% .30
Feb
28		 Oakland A B- A+ B+ A 41% 35% 24% F+ A- D- D+ D- A+ A+ A- A+ D F F+ F+ F 32% 22% 46% B+ F B- F D A- D- D+ D-
1.32 64% 63% 38% +13 -2 1.24 29% 0.9 .26 8% .44 79% .35 1.23 75% 45% 39% +11 -1 1.22 29% 1.4 .39 18% .37 77% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 100.0% 7.4% 7.4% 15.2 0.0 5.9 1.5 92.6
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 15.2 92.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 7.4% 100.0% 15.2 0.3 79.4 20.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 12.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 34.3%
Lose Out 46.3%