Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.9#304
Expected Predictive Rating-15.1#343
Pace67.6#223
Improvement+0.3#154

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#181
First Shot+4.3#69
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#359
Layup/Dunks+1.3#123
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#24
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#182
Freethrows-1.4#261
Improvement+1.2#69

Defense
Total Defense-7.6#358
First Shot-6.2#348
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#279
Layups/Dunks+3.7#58
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#337
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.5#353
Freethrows+0.6#152
Improvement-0.9#279
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.4% 0.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 3.9% 0.8%
.500 or above in Conference 21.6% 35.6% 16.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.6% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 14.5% 5.9% 17.6%
First Four0.6% 1.0% 0.5%
First Round0.4% 0.9% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Home) - 26.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 71 - 14
Quad 47 - 88 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 109   @ Toledo L 60-94 9%     0 - 1 -27.0 -14.4 -11.8
  Nov 10, 2023 39   @ Cincinnati L 61-93 3%     0 - 2 -17.6 -7.8 -8.4
  Nov 14, 2023 79   @ Mississippi L 69-70 6%     0 - 3 +8.7 +10.1 -1.5
  Nov 18, 2023 121   @ Ohio L 52-71 10%     0 - 4 -12.9 -19.4 +5.9
  Nov 21, 2023 291   Eastern Michigan L 72-76 58%     0 - 5 -14.0 +4.3 -18.9
  Nov 25, 2023 238   @ SIU Edwardsville L 67-81 26%     0 - 6 -15.1 +1.8 -18.7
  Nov 29, 2023 134   Oakland L 73-80 26%    
  Dec 02, 2023 167   @ Cleveland St. L 68-79 16%    
  Dec 06, 2023 271   Ball St. W 74-73 54%    
  Dec 10, 2023 63   @ Northwestern L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 18, 2023 126   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-82 10%    
  Dec 21, 2023 313   @ Central Michigan L 72-74 41%    
  Dec 23, 2023 71   @ North Carolina St. L 68-86 5%    
  Dec 29, 2023 350   @ IUPUI W 74-72 58%    
  Dec 31, 2023 208   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-81 22%    
  Jan 04, 2024 321   Green Bay W 72-68 65%    
  Jan 06, 2024 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 81-80 52%    
  Jan 13, 2024 206   Northern Kentucky L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 17, 2024 273   @ Robert Morris L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 20, 2024 216   Youngstown St. L 78-80 41%    
  Jan 25, 2024 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 78-83 31%    
  Jan 27, 2024 321   @ Green Bay L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 01, 2024 167   Cleveland St. L 71-76 34%    
  Feb 03, 2024 273   Robert Morris W 73-72 54%    
  Feb 08, 2024 129   @ Wright St. L 75-88 12%    
  Feb 10, 2024 206   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-76 22%    
  Feb 14, 2024 350   IUPUI W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 17, 2024 208   Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-78 41%    
  Feb 22, 2024 129   Wright St. L 78-85 27%    
  Feb 28, 2024 216   @ Youngstown St. L 75-83 23%    
  Mar 02, 2024 134   @ Oakland L 70-83 13%    
Projected Record 8 - 23 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.1 2.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 6.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.7 3.7 1.1 0.0 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.0 4.8 1.5 0.1 13.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.9 6.0 1.9 0.1 17.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.9 6.2 5.0 1.4 0.1 17.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.0 4.9 5.2 3.5 0.8 0.1 17.1 10th
11th 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.7 1.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 9.2 11th
Total 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.9 7.8 10.7 12.8 13.5 13.3 11.3 8.2 6.0 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 96.8% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 81.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 44.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 14.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 6.5% 6.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.1% 9.5% 9.5% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.6% 4.2% 4.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.0% 9.8% 9.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.9
13-7 2.0% 7.0% 7.0% 16.0 0.1 1.8
12-8 3.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.6
11-9 6.0% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 5.9
10-10 8.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.2
9-11 11.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 11.3
8-12 13.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.3
7-13 13.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.4
6-14 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
5-15 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
4-16 7.8% 7.8
3-17 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
2-18 2.7% 2.7
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%