Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#197
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#171
Pace63.9#301
Improvement-0.1#161

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#62
First Shot+1.9#110
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#38
Layup/Dunks-6.2#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#22
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#73
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement+0.2#48

Defense
Total Defense-6.1#320
First Shot-1.7#232
After Offensive Rebounds-4.4#355
Layups/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#311
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.2#326
Freethrows+1.0#126
Improvement-0.3#310
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 14.7% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 62.4% 77.8% 52.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.9% 92.6% 76.7%
Conference Champion 12.8% 21.8% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 2.2%
First Round9.7% 14.0% 6.9%
Second Round0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 64 - 11
Quad 411 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 151   @ Boston College L 66-70 29%     0 - 1 +0.2 -0.5 +0.7
  Nov 16, 2022 157   Ohio W 88-74 53%     1 - 1 +11.8 +10.7 +0.7
  Nov 19, 2022 68   @ Florida Atlantic L 55-76 12%     1 - 2 -10.0 -9.0 -2.0
  Nov 21, 2022 111   Bryant L 88-98 30%     1 - 3 -6.0 +18.7 -25.4
  Nov 23, 2022 124   Charlotte W 70-49 43%     2 - 3 +21.2 +13.1 +12.4
  Nov 25, 2022 51   @ Washington St. L 54-96 10%     2 - 4 -29.5 -7.8 -25.9
  Dec 01, 2022 198   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 70-73 39%    
  Dec 03, 2022 202   @ Cleveland St. L 65-68 40%    
  Dec 07, 2022 169   @ Tulsa L 74-79 34%    
  Dec 10, 2022 124   @ Charlotte L 61-69 24%    
  Dec 18, 2022 263   @ Eastern Michigan W 77-76 52%    
  Dec 21, 2022 89   @ Cincinnati L 69-80 17%    
  Dec 29, 2022 362   Green Bay W 79-60 95%    
  Dec 31, 2022 229   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-72 67%    
  Jan 06, 2023 144   @ Wright St. L 73-79 29%    
  Jan 08, 2023 237   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 12, 2023 139   Youngstown St. L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 14, 2023 294   Robert Morris W 76-67 78%    
  Jan 21, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 78-66 86%    
  Jan 23, 2023 301   Oakland W 82-73 79%    
  Jan 27, 2023 294   @ Robert Morris W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 29, 2023 139   @ Youngstown St. L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 02, 2023 202   Cleveland St. W 68-65 61%    
  Feb 04, 2023 198   Purdue Fort Wayne W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 09, 2023 229   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-75 47%    
  Feb 11, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 76-63 86%    
  Feb 17, 2023 301   @ Oakland W 79-76 61%    
  Feb 19, 2023 359   IUPUI W 81-63 95%    
  Feb 23, 2023 237   Northern Kentucky W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 144   Wright St. L 75-76 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.7 3.8 3.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 12.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 4.8 5.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.7 5.4 1.6 0.1 15.1 3rd
4th 0.2 2.1 6.2 5.1 1.1 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.7 4.3 0.9 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.6 3.6 0.8 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.2 1.6 0.3 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.2 9.7 12.1 13.4 13.4 12.2 9.5 6.4 3.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 97.0% 1.7    1.6 0.1
17-3 85.1% 3.1    2.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 58.6% 3.8    2.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 28.6% 2.7    0.8 1.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 6.5% 0.8    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.6 3.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 71.4% 71.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 50.2% 50.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
18-2 1.8% 40.5% 40.5% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.1
17-3 3.7% 30.7% 30.7% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.5
16-4 6.4% 24.4% 24.4% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 4.9
15-5 9.5% 18.6% 18.6% 14.7 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 7.8
14-6 12.2% 12.8% 12.8% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 10.6
13-7 13.4% 10.2% 10.2% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 12.1
12-8 13.4% 7.7% 7.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 12.4
11-9 12.1% 4.4% 4.4% 15.9 0.0 0.5 11.6
10-10 9.7% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.3 9.4
9-11 7.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 7.0
8-12 4.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.9
7-13 2.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.6 3.8 3.2 89.4 0.0%