Detroit Mercy
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#231
Expected Predictive Rating-6.2#260
Pace67.2#234
Improvement+0.6#128

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#98
First Shot+0.8#154
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#62
Layup/Dunks-9.5#357
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.5#24
Freethrows-1.3#257
Improvement+1.4#49

Defense
Total Defense-6.4#335
First Shot-5.5#329
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#239
Layups/Dunks-5.0#322
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#103
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#284
Freethrows+0.9#140
Improvement-0.8#259
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 8.4% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 33.0% 39.1% 17.9%
.500 or above in Conference 66.4% 73.4% 49.4%
Conference Champion 7.4% 9.3% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 2.7% 0.9% 7.0%
First Four3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
First Round6.2% 7.1% 4.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IUPUI (Away) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 6
Quad 32 - 62 - 12
Quad 412 - 714 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 84   @ Wyoming L 47-85 12%     0 - 1 -28.4 -18.0 -13.5
  Nov 13, 2021 117   @ Toledo L 73-81 19%     0 - 2 -1.9 +1.6 -3.6
  Nov 17, 2021 38   @ Mississippi St. L 64-77 7%     0 - 3 +0.7 +7.3 -8.5
  Nov 20, 2021 36   @ Louisville L 67-73 6%     0 - 4 +8.5 +5.7 +2.6
  Nov 27, 2021 133   @ Hofstra L 84-98 20%     0 - 5 -8.7 +5.9 -13.8
  Nov 30, 2021 148   @ Northeastern L 56-66 23%     0 - 6 -5.6 -1.5 -5.6
  Dec 02, 2021 336   @ IUPUI W 70-64 71%    
  Dec 05, 2021 252   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-73 45%    
  Dec 09, 2021 137   @ Kent St. L 69-77 22%    
  Dec 11, 2021 296   Western Michigan W 77-70 74%    
  Dec 18, 2021 304   Central Michigan W 83-75 77%    
  Dec 30, 2021 279   Youngstown St. W 78-72 69%    
  Jan 01, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 81-74 74%    
  Jan 05, 2022 124   Oakland L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 07, 2022 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-70 68%    
  Jan 09, 2022 301   Green Bay W 76-69 75%    
  Jan 13, 2022 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 77-78 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 166   @ Cleveland St. L 68-74 28%    
  Jan 20, 2022 301   @ Green Bay W 73-72 55%    
  Jan 22, 2022 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 27, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 336   IUPUI W 73-61 85%    
  Feb 03, 2022 205   @ Wright St. L 76-80 35%    
  Feb 05, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 09, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 11, 2022 279   @ Youngstown St. L 74-75 51%    
  Feb 13, 2022 124   @ Oakland L 69-78 21%    
  Feb 18, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky W 72-71 54%    
  Feb 20, 2022 205   Wright St. W 79-77 56%    
  Feb 24, 2022 166   Cleveland St. L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 26, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-75 69%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 12 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.4 1st
2nd 0.3 1.5 3.0 2.7 1.7 0.6 0.1 10.1 2nd
3rd 0.6 2.1 4.2 3.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.5 2.5 5.0 3.0 1.1 0.3 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.9 5.1 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 12.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.6 4.7 3.0 0.7 0.0 11.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 3.3 2.1 0.5 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 1.9 0.6 0.0 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 0.7 0.2 3.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 12th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.9 4.1 6.3 7.7 10.3 11.5 11.4 11.3 9.7 8.2 5.9 3.9 2.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
21-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
20-2 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
19-3 89.4% 1.2    1.0 0.2 0.0
18-4 75.3% 2.0    1.4 0.6 0.0
17-5 48.9% 1.9    0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0
16-6 21.1% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
15-7 4.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-8 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 7.4% 7.4 4.4 2.4 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.0% 45.5% 45.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0
21-1 0.1% 18.0% 18.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
20-2 0.4% 60.8% 60.8% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2
19-3 1.4% 21.4% 21.4% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.1
18-4 2.6% 25.3% 25.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.9
17-5 3.9% 16.3% 16.3% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 3.3
16-6 5.9% 15.8% 15.8% 15.4 0.0 0.4 0.4 4.9
15-7 8.2% 14.6% 14.6% 15.7 0.0 0.3 0.8 7.0
14-8 9.7% 11.0% 11.0% 15.9 0.1 0.9 8.6
13-9 11.3% 7.5% 7.5% 15.9 0.1 0.8 10.5
12-10 11.4% 5.7% 5.7% 16.0 0.7 10.8
11-11 11.5% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.5 11.0
10-12 10.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 10.0
9-13 7.7% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.6
8-14 6.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 6.3
7-15 4.1% 4.1
6-16 2.9% 2.9
5-17 1.3% 1.3
4-18 0.7% 0.7
3-19 0.2% 0.2
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21 0.1% 0.1
0-22
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.9 4.9 92.5 0.0%