Oakland
Horizon
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#124
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#34
Pace71.4#125
Improvement-0.6#229

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#176
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#136
Layup/Dunks+3.1#71
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#279
Freethrows+0.2#169
Improvement+2.1#25

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#86
First Shot+3.1#81
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#191
Layups/Dunks+2.5#90
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
Freethrows+2.1#63
Improvement-2.6#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 32.2% 33.7% 29.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Average Seed 13.1 13.0 13.5
.500 or above 98.2% 99.2% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.9% 94.8%
Conference Champion 48.0% 55.0% 33.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round32.1% 33.5% 29.1%
Second Round4.7% 5.0% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois-Chicago (Away) - 67.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 3
Quad 21 - 02 - 3
Quad 36 - 37 - 6
Quad 416 - 424 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 45   @ West Virginia L 53-60 17%     0 - 1 +5.9 -14.3 +20.2
  Nov 12, 2021 32   @ Oklahoma St. W 56-55 13%     1 - 1 +16.0 -4.6 +20.6
  Nov 17, 2021 117   Toledo W 80-59 60%     2 - 1 +21.1 +1.4 +19.0
  Nov 19, 2021 13   @ Alabama L 59-86 8%     2 - 2 -8.5 -6.7 -1.3
  Nov 22, 2021 104   Vermont W 63-61 44%     3 - 2 +6.3 -3.2 +9.6
  Nov 23, 2021 184   Rice W 76-73 65%     4 - 2 +1.9 -0.3 +2.2
  Nov 24, 2021 161   Delaware W 81-73 59%     5 - 2 +8.4 +4.2 +4.2
  Dec 02, 2021 252   @ Illinois-Chicago W 71-66 68%    
  Dec 04, 2021 336   @ IUPUI W 69-57 87%    
  Dec 07, 2021 224   @ Bowling Green W 76-73 60%    
  Dec 21, 2021 22   Michigan St. L 64-75 16%    
  Dec 30, 2021 290   Robert Morris W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 01, 2022 279   Youngstown St. W 77-65 86%    
  Jan 05, 2022 231   @ Detroit Mercy W 75-72 62%    
  Jan 07, 2022 301   Green Bay W 76-62 89%    
  Jan 09, 2022 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-63 85%    
  Jan 13, 2022 166   @ Cleveland St. L 67-68 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-71 71%    
  Jan 20, 2022 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-66 67%    
  Jan 22, 2022 301   @ Green Bay W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 27, 2022 336   IUPUI W 72-54 94%    
  Jan 29, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago W 74-63 82%    
  Feb 03, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 05, 2022 205   @ Wright St. W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 09, 2022 279   @ Youngstown St. W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 11, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris W 77-70 73%    
  Feb 13, 2022 231   Detroit Mercy W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 18, 2022 205   Wright St. W 78-70 75%    
  Feb 20, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky W 71-64 74%    
  Feb 24, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 80-68 86%    
  Feb 26, 2022 166   Cleveland St. W 70-64 71%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 16 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 3.9 8.4 10.7 10.6 7.7 4.5 0.9 48.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.7 5.0 6.5 5.8 2.8 0.7 0.1 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.4 4.3 2.5 0.5 0.0 12.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.5 4.1 5.7 8.2 11.3 13.0 14.7 13.5 11.3 7.8 4.5 0.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
21-1 100.0% 4.5    4.5 0.0
20-2 99.0% 7.7    7.5 0.3
19-3 93.4% 10.6    9.5 1.0 0.0
18-4 79.2% 10.7    8.0 2.6 0.1
17-5 57.0% 8.4    5.1 2.8 0.6 0.0
16-6 29.8% 3.9    1.3 1.9 0.7 0.0
15-7 10.8% 1.2    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-8 1.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 48.0% 48.0 37.1 9.1 1.7 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.9% 62.0% 56.8% 5.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 11.9%
21-1 4.5% 64.8% 59.7% 5.1% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.5 0.0 1.6 12.6%
20-2 7.8% 50.4% 49.0% 1.3% 12.3 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.1 0.2 3.9 2.6%
19-3 11.3% 47.7% 47.3% 0.4% 12.7 0.1 2.0 2.5 0.8 0.0 5.9 0.7%
18-4 13.5% 37.1% 37.0% 0.1% 13.2 0.9 2.6 1.4 0.1 8.5 0.2%
17-5 14.7% 35.2% 35.2% 13.4 0.5 2.3 2.0 0.4 9.5
16-6 13.0% 27.1% 27.1% 13.8 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 9.5
15-7 11.3% 23.4% 23.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.8 0.0 8.7
14-8 8.2% 18.1% 18.1% 14.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 6.7
13-9 5.7% 13.3% 13.3% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.0
12-10 4.1% 9.5% 9.5% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.7
11-11 2.5% 11.5% 11.5% 15.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.2
10-12 1.1% 8.3% 8.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.0
9-13 0.7% 6.3% 6.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-14 0.3% 0.3
7-15 0.2% 0.2
6-16 0.1% 0.1
5-17 0.0% 0.0
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 32.2% 31.8% 0.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.2 7.2 10.6 8.8 3.3 0.4 67.8 0.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.2 1.3 15.2 2.5 65.8 1.3 13.9