Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.8 #133
Expected Predictive Rating +3.8 #115
Pace 74.5 #50
Improvement -0.8 #224

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #58 B- A- C A+ B-
Defense #309 D B C D C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #45 1.21 #130 +4.7 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #191 0.74 #187 -0.3 #194
Three Pointers 36% #295 1.11 #69 -1.1 #221
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #97 +3.3 #97
Freethrows 20.9 #32 75% #99 15.8 #26
Second Chance 30.1% #206 1.11 #111 0.33 #148
Turnovers 12.6% #7
Total Offense +6.0 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #236 1.32 #331 -1.9 #249
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #185 0.85 #304 -0.9 #248
Three Pointers 43% #121 1.02 #198 -1.2 #225
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #299 -4.0 #300
Freethrows 15.0 #69 71% #124 10.7 #302
Second Chance 31.4% #204 1.03 #168 0.32 #191
Turnovers 14.4% #310
Total Defense -4.2 #309

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #112 -0.2% #153
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #108 8.1% #315
Possession Length 16.4 #106 16.6 #77
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #29 0.14 #73
Improvement +0.0 #187 -0.8 #244

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 30.3% 22.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 94.4% 95.6% 82.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.7% 97.8%
Conference Champion 61.7% 64.1% 38.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round29.5% 30.3% 22.1%
Second Round1.7% 1.8% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 90.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 36 - 46 - 10
Quad 414 - 220 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78-121 1%     -26.7   0 - 1 -13.4 +13.9 -23.1
  Fri, Nov 7 3 @Purdue L 77-87 2%     -3.2   0 - 2 +16.2 +14.8 +1.4
  Wed, Nov 12 11 @Houston L 45-78 4%     -21.3   0 - 3 -10.6 -10.1 -4.8
  Mon, Nov 17 49 @Central Florida L 83-87 14%     -4.9   0 - 4 +9.6 +12.3 -2.6
  Fri, Nov 21 196 @Eastern Michigan L 91-97 54%     -1.3   0 - 5 -5.3 +14.6 -19.6
  Mon, Nov 24 231 Lamar W 83-68 71%     4.1   1 - 5 +11.1 +9.6 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 25 190 @Montana W 95-87 53%     3.5   2 - 5 +9.0 +12.6 -4.5
  Wed, Dec 3 249 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101-92 83%     7.8   3 - 5 1 - 0 +0.8 +14.8 -14.9
  Sat, Dec 6 172 Toledo W 98-97 71%     -1.5   4 - 5 -2.9 +11.0 -14.0
  Sat, Dec 13 90 @Northern Iowa L 63-75 24%     -4.9   4 - 6 -2.8 -2.5 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 17 198 @Northern Kentucky W 82-77 55%     1.5   5 - 6 2 - 0 +5.6 +6.7 -1.3
  Sat, Dec 20 14 Michigan St. L 70-79 7%     -3.6   5 - 7 +9.3 +11.5 -2.5
  Mon, Dec 29 147 @Wright St. L 73-88 43%     -14.1   5 - 8 2 - 1 -11.4 +1.3 -12.5
  Thu, Jan 1 195 @Youngstown St. W 85-83 54%     -3.6   6 - 8 3 - 1 +2.7 +19.1 -16.3
  Sun, Jan 4 202 Robert Morris W 96-73 76%     14.3   7 - 8 4 - 1 +17.4 +21.6 -3.6
  Fri, Jan 9 321 Cleveland St. W 93-79 91%    
  Sun, Jan 11 147 Wright St. W 81-77 65%    
  Thu, Jan 15 200 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-84 55%    
  Sun, Jan 18 247 @Green Bay W 82-78 64%    
  Wed, Jan 21 353 IU Indianapolis W 103-85 96%    
  Sat, Jan 24 283 @Detroit Mercy W 86-80 70%    
  Wed, Jan 28 249 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 86-82 65%    
  Sun, Feb 1 198 Northern Kentucky W 87-80 74%    
  Wed, Feb 4 321 @Cleveland St. W 90-82 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 195 Youngstown St. W 84-77 75%    
  Sun, Feb 15 202 @Robert Morris W 81-80 55%    
  Fri, Feb 20 247 Green Bay W 85-75 82%    
  Sun, Feb 22 200 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88-81 75%    
  Wed, Feb 25 353 @IU Indianapolis W 100-88 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 283 Detroit Mercy W 89-77 85%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.0 12.8 17.3 15.1 8.5 2.3 61.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.9 6.5 2.5 0.5 0.0 22.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.1 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.2 1.0 0.0 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 5.7 9.8 14.8 19.5 19.8 15.5 8.5 2.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3
18-2 99.9% 8.5    8.3 0.2
17-3 96.9% 15.1    13.6 1.4
16-4 87.1% 17.3    13.4 3.7 0.1
15-5 65.6% 12.8    7.2 4.9 0.7 0.0
14-6 33.5% 5.0    1.3 2.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 8.5% 0.8    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 61.7% 61.7 46.2 12.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 2.3% 47.0% 47.0% 11.9 0.3 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.2
18-2 8.5% 42.2% 42.2% 12.8 0.0 1.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.9
17-3 15.5% 37.3% 37.3% 13.3 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.1 0.1 9.7
16-4 19.8% 33.3% 33.3% 13.6 0.2 2.6 3.3 0.6 13.2
15-5 19.5% 28.7% 28.7% 13.9 0.1 1.5 3.2 0.8 0.0 13.9
14-6 14.8% 23.9% 23.9% 14.2 0.0 0.5 1.9 1.0 0.1 11.3
13-7 9.8% 20.7% 20.7% 14.5 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.0 7.8
12-8 5.7% 16.2% 16.2% 14.9 0.1 0.7 0.1 4.7
11-9 2.5% 11.6% 11.6% 15.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.2
10-10 1.1% 10.3% 10.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
9-11 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.6% 29.6% 0.0% 13.6 0.3 2.7 9.7 12.0 4.5 0.4 70.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 11.9 24.5 66.2 8.8 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%