Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.1 #144
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #135
Pace 74.2 #49
Improvement -2.8 #306

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #81 C C+ B+ B B-
Defense #267 D+ C D+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #27 1.14 #199 +3.6 #68
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.73 #216 -0.6 #209
Three Pointers 35% #310 1.00 #211 -3.5 #300
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.5 #190
Freethrows 0.34 #62 75% #103 0.26 #60
Second Chance 30.7% #171 1.10 #78 0.34 #120
Turnovers 13.8% #25
Total Offense +4.0 #81

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #263 1.27 #316 -0.4 #190
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.92 #356 -2.2 #337
Three Pointers 43% #127 0.98 #123 +0.0 #183
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.6 #266
Freethrows 0.24 #20 72% #148 0.17 #24
Second Chance 34.1% #311 0.93 #58 0.32 #193
Turnovers 15.4% #272
Total Defense -2.9 #267

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.2% #107 -0.7% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #210 5.8% #291
Possession Length 16.6 #106 16.6 #74
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 #28 0.15 #116
Improvement -4.7 #352 +1.9 #81

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.3% 30.3% 26.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.2
.500 or above 98.2% 99.4% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 49.3% 56.5% 30.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round29.3% 30.3% 26.7%
Second Round1.1% 1.2% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 20 - 7
Quad 37 - 37 - 10
Quad 412 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78 - 121 1% -27  0 - 1 -15 +12 A+ D+ A -23 F D F
 Fri, Nov 7 9 @Purdue L 77 - 87 3% -3  0 - 2 +14 +13 B- A- A +1 B A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 6 @Houston L 45 - 78 2% -21  0 - 3 -8 -10 D- D- A- -2 B- C D
 Mon, Nov 17 47 @Central Florida L 83 - 87 11% -5  0 - 4 +10 +12 C+ C A- -2 C C+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 230 @Eastern Michigan L 91 - 97 57% -1  0 - 5 -7 +15 A- C+ A+ -21 F B+ C-
 Mon, Nov 24 195 Lamar W 83 - 68 62% +4  1 - 5 +13 +9 D+ A+ B +4 B D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 171 @Montana W 95 - 87 45% +4  2 - 5 +10 +15 A+ D- B+ -5 C- F C-
 Wed, Dec 3 239 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101 - 92 79% +8  3 - 5 1 - 0 +1 +15 B+ C+ A+ -15 D C- F
 Sat, Dec 6 161 Toledo W 98 - 97 66% -1  4 - 5 -2 +11 C B+ A+ -13 D- F C
 Sat, Dec 13 110 @Northern Iowa L 63 - 75 30% -5  4 - 6 -5 -4 C- C F -1 C B F+
 Wed, Dec 17 201 @Northern Kentucky W 82 - 77 52% +2  5 - 6 2 - 0 +5 +6 D F+ A+ -1 C C D-
 Sat, Dec 20 10 Michigan St. L 70 - 79 5% -4  5 - 7 +10 +11 A C+ C -1 B+ C+ C-
 Mon, Dec 29 148 @Wright St. L 73 - 88 40% -14  5 - 8 2 - 1 -11 +0 F+ D C- -11 F B- B-
 Thu, Jan 1 197 @Youngstown St. W 85 - 83 52% -4  6 - 8 3 - 1 +3 +18 A B- A+ -15 B- F F
 Sun, Jan 4 214 Robert Morris W 96 - 73 75% +14  7 - 8 4 - 1 +17 +22 C A A+ -4 C- B+ D-
 Fri, Jan 9 290 Cleveland St. W 97 - 72 86% +13  8 - 8 5 - 1 +15 +9 F+ A+ C- +4 A+ D D-
 Sun, Jan 11 148 Wright St. L 84 - 94 63% -17  8 - 9 5 - 2 -12 +5 C D A+ -17 F A- A+
 Thu, Jan 15 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 73 - 60 66% +9  9 - 9 6 - 2 +10 -7 F B+ F +16 A+ C+ B-
 Sun, Jan 18 250 @Green Bay W 88 - 63 62% +11  10 - 9 7 - 2 +23 +18 B+ A+ C- +7 B- A- C+
 Wed, Jan 21 338 IU Indianapolis L 85 - 103 92% -8  10 - 10 7 - 3 -32 +2 F B A+ -34 F F D
 Sat, Jan 24 261 @Detroit Mercy W 95 - 87 65% +4  11 - 10 8 - 3 +5 +21 B+ C+ A+ -15 F C C
 Wed, Jan 28 239 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 74 - 65 60% +1  12 - 10 9 - 3 +7 +1 D+ F+ A+ +7 A+ F D-
 Sun, Feb 1 201 Northern Kentucky W 76 - 65 74% +2  13 - 10 10 - 3 +5 -6 F A+ B- +11 A+ B+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 290 @Cleveland St. L 78 - 91 70% +2  13 - 11 10 - 4 -17 -3 D D- D- -14 F B D-
 Thu, Feb 12 197 Youngstown St. W 83 - 77 72%
 Sun, Feb 15 214 @Robert Morris W 79 - 78 53%
 Fri, Feb 20 250 Green Bay W 84 - 75 80%
 Sun, Feb 22 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 87 - 77 83%
 Wed, Feb 25 338 @IU Indianapolis W 94 - 85 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 261 Detroit Mercy W 88 - 78 82%
Totals 18 - 12 15 - 5 +1 +4 C C+ B+ -3 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.4 8.9 22.6 16.4 49.3 1st
2nd 0.0 2.1 10.9 19.7 13.3 2.0 48.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.1 0.9 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.3 13.1 28.6 35.9 18.4 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 89.1% 16.4    11.2 5.1
15-5 62.9% 22.6    11.3 11.2 0.1
14-6 31.0% 8.9    2.9 5.5 0.5
13-7 10.5% 1.4    0.1 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-8 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 49.3% 49.3 25.6 22.6 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 18.4% 34.8% 34.8% 13.1 0.0 1.0 3.8 1.6 0.0 12.0
15-5 35.9% 31.1% 31.1% 13.7 0.2 3.6 6.3 1.1 0.0 24.7
14-6 28.6% 26.9% 26.9% 14.1 0.1 1.2 4.4 2.1 0.0 21.0
13-7 13.1% 24.4% 24.4% 14.6 0.1 1.2 1.8 0.1 9.9
12-8 3.3% 23.1% 23.1% 14.8 0.2 0.6 0.0 2.6
11-9 0.6% 15.6% 15.6% 15.3 0.1 0.0 0.5
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.3% 29.3% 0.0% 13.8 70.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.4% 100.0% 13.1 0.2 15.2 59.0 25.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.7%