Oakland
Horizon
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#135
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#125
Pace76.0#39
Improvement+0.3#162

Offense
Total Offense+4.7#72
First Shot+4.6#69
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#169
Layup/Dunks+5.4#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#248
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement-1.0#258

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#275
First Shot-2.5#261
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#228
Layups/Dunks-1.8#247
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#243
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#268
Freethrows+2.1#61
Improvement+1.2#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.3% 30.4% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 88.2% 94.6% 83.4%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 99.4% 97.0%
Conference Champion 49.5% 65.3% 37.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round26.3% 30.4% 23.2%
Second Round1.6% 2.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 42.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 5
Quad 20 - 10 - 6
Quad 35 - 46 - 10
Quad 414 - 319 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 1 @Michigan L 78-121 1%     0 - 1 -13.3 +13.0 -22.1
  Fri, Nov 7 6 @Purdue L 77-87 3%     0 - 2 +14.7 +13.7 +1.0
  Wed, Nov 12 8 @Houston L 45-78 3%     0 - 3 -9.7 -10.2 -3.8
  Mon, Nov 17 51 @Central Florida L 83-87 14%     0 - 4 +9.3 +11.2 -1.8
  Fri, Nov 21 226 @Eastern Michigan L 91-97 60%     0 - 5 -6.9 +13.4 -19.9
  Mon, Nov 24 256 Lamar W 83-68 75%     1 - 5 +9.8 +9.0 +0.6
  Tue, Nov 25 208 @Montana W 95-87 57%     2 - 5 +7.8 +11.8 -4.8
  Wed, Dec 3 217 Purdue Fort Wayne W 101-92 78%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +2.4 +13.9 -12.2
  Sat, Dec 6 167 Toledo W 98-97 70%     4 - 5 -2.7 +10.1 -12.8
  Sat, Dec 13 94 @Northern Iowa L 63-75 25%     4 - 6 -3.4 -3.5 +0.6
  Wed, Dec 17 199 @Northern Kentucky W 82-77 54%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +5.7 +6.8 -1.3
  Sat, Dec 20 14 Michigan St. L 70-79 8%     5 - 7 +8.6 +9.9 -1.6
  Mon, Dec 29 153 @Wright St. L 79-81 43%    
  Thu, Jan 1 164 @Youngstown St. L 78-79 47%    
  Sun, Jan 4 183 Robert Morris W 82-76 72%    
  Fri, Jan 9 328 Cleveland St. W 94-79 91%    
  Sun, Jan 11 153 Wright St. W 82-78 64%    
  Thu, Jan 15 222 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85-83 59%    
  Sun, Jan 18 264 @Green Bay W 81-77 65%    
  Wed, Jan 21 356 IU Indianapolis W 105-86 96%    
  Sat, Jan 24 296 @Detroit Mercy W 84-78 71%    
  Wed, Jan 28 217 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 87-85 58%    
  Sun, Feb 1 199 Northern Kentucky W 86-79 73%    
  Wed, Feb 4 328 @Cleveland St. W 91-82 78%    
  Thu, Feb 12 164 Youngstown St. W 81-76 68%    
  Sun, Feb 15 183 @Robert Morris W 79-78 51%    
  Fri, Feb 20 264 Green Bay W 84-74 82%    
  Sun, Feb 22 222 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 88-80 78%    
  Wed, Feb 25 356 @IU Indianapolis W 102-89 87%    
  Sat, Feb 28 296 Detroit Mercy W 87-75 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.7 9.2 13.3 11.9 7.2 3.0 0.7 49.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.5 7.9 6.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 5.3 3.5 0.8 0.1 12.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.3 0.3 7.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.6 0.3 4.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.8 8.2 11.8 15.4 16.4 15.7 12.2 7.2 3.0 0.7 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
19-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0
18-2 99.9% 7.2    7.1 0.1
17-3 97.1% 11.9    10.7 1.2 0.0
16-4 84.8% 13.3    9.7 3.4 0.2
15-5 56.3% 9.2    4.6 3.7 0.8 0.1
14-6 24.3% 3.7    0.8 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
13-7 3.8% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 49.5% 49.5 36.7 10.2 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.7% 55.3% 55.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3
19-1 3.0% 48.0% 48.0% 12.5 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.6
18-2 7.2% 41.2% 41.2% 13.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.2
17-3 12.2% 36.9% 36.9% 13.4 0.4 2.3 1.7 0.2 7.7
16-4 15.7% 30.8% 30.8% 13.7 0.2 1.8 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.9
15-5 16.4% 27.9% 27.9% 14.0 0.0 1.0 2.6 0.9 0.0 11.8
14-6 15.4% 23.6% 23.6% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.0 11.8
13-7 11.8% 18.1% 18.1% 14.6 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.1 9.7
12-8 8.2% 13.5% 13.5% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 7.1
11-9 4.8% 9.7% 9.7% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.3
10-10 2.6% 7.6% 7.6% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.4
9-11 1.2% 5.1% 5.1% 16.0 0.1 1.2
8-12 0.5% 5.4% 5.4% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.3% 26.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.1 7.9 10.3 5.1 0.7 73.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 11.6 0.8 0.8 43.0 51.2 3.3 0.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%