Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#206
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#194
Pace70.2#120
Improvement-1.3#327

Offense
Total Offense-1.1#210
First Shot-1.1#221
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#175
Layup/Dunks-2.6#285
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#327
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#31
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+1.2#29

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#198
First Shot-2.0#237
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#71
Layups/Dunks-5.3#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#103
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#185
Freethrows+2.4#33
Improvement-2.4#362
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 10.7% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 92.6% 98.1% 87.1%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 89.8% 65.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 0.5% 1.1%
First Round8.9% 10.4% 7.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 55 - 8
Quad 412 - 417 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 58   @ Michigan L 56-75 11%     0 - 1 -7.2 -14.1 +7.6
  Nov 12, 2022 237   SIU Edwardsville W 81-76 68%     1 - 1 -1.6 -2.6 +0.4
  Nov 18, 2022 45   @ Northwestern L 52-60 9%     1 - 2 +5.1 -13.3 +18.5
  Nov 22, 2022 315   Eastern Michigan W 74-67 74%     2 - 2 -1.5 -4.6 +3.2
  Nov 23, 2022 110   Southern Miss L 58-70 30%     2 - 3 -8.4 -7.5 -2.1
  Dec 01, 2022 223   Detroit Mercy L 66-75 65%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -14.7 -21.5 +7.7
  Dec 03, 2022 249   Oakland W 79-73 OT 71%     3 - 4 1 - 1 -1.4 -7.1 +5.1
  Dec 07, 2022 250   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 89-68 51%     4 - 4 +18.9 +4.9 +11.5
  Dec 10, 2022 138   @ Missouri St. W 65-61 27%     5 - 4 +8.5 +0.8 +8.1
  Dec 19, 2022 320   Texas A&M - Commerce W 85-68 82%     6 - 4 +5.4 +3.7 +1.1
  Dec 20, 2022 270   Southern Indiana W 83-59 74%     7 - 4 +15.7 +9.5 +7.6
  Dec 29, 2022 243   @ Robert Morris L 70-75 49%     7 - 5 1 - 2 -6.5 +0.3 -6.9
  Dec 31, 2022 134   @ Youngstown St. W 76-71 26%     8 - 5 2 - 2 +9.8 +2.1 +7.8
  Jan 05, 2023 362   Green Bay W 79-69 95%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -10.0 +1.2 -10.6
  Jan 07, 2023 213   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-74 62%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -8.9 -5.4 -3.5
  Jan 12, 2023 358   @ IUPUI W 70-55 85%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +1.9 -2.2 +5.8
  Jan 16, 2023 180   Cleveland St. L 60-72 55%     10 - 7 4 - 4 -15.0 -8.4 -7.8
  Jan 19, 2023 204   @ Wright St. W 88-80 39%     11 - 7 5 - 4 +9.0 +4.8 +3.2
  Jan 21, 2023 211   @ Northern Kentucky L 54-74 41%     11 - 8 5 - 5 -19.3 -7.8 -14.7
  Jan 25, 2023 358   IUPUI W 81-75 93%     12 - 8 6 - 5 -12.5 -0.8 -11.6
  Jan 27, 2023 180   @ Cleveland St. L 74-79 34%     12 - 9 6 - 6 -2.6 +10.4 -13.6
  Feb 02, 2023 249   @ Oakland W 74-73 49%    
  Feb 04, 2023 223   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-76 43%    
  Feb 10, 2023 134   Youngstown St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 12, 2023 243   Robert Morris W 71-66 69%    
  Feb 17, 2023 211   Northern Kentucky W 66-63 63%    
  Feb 19, 2023 204   Wright St. W 77-74 62%    
  Feb 23, 2023 213   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-75 40%    
  Feb 25, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 75-62 88%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 0.8 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 3.8 0.4 6.2 3rd
4th 1.7 8.5 2.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 11.0 7.1 0.2 19.3 5th
6th 0.6 8.9 10.9 0.8 21.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 4.7 11.2 1.9 18.1 7th
8th 0.1 2.4 7.5 2.8 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.4 2.3 0.1 7.2 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.0 15.1 24.1 25.6 18.5 7.7 1.6 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 23.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.6% 20.1% 20.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.3
13-7 7.7% 16.2% 16.2% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 6.4
12-8 18.5% 11.9% 11.9% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.2 16.3
11-9 25.6% 9.6% 9.6% 15.2 0.3 1.5 0.7 23.2
10-10 24.1% 8.4% 8.4% 15.4 0.0 1.1 0.9 22.1
9-11 15.1% 5.2% 5.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 14.3
8-12 6.0% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.7
7-13 1.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.7 2.8 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 20.1% 14.0 0.4 3.1 12.0 4.6
Lose Out 0.1%