Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#274
Expected Predictive Rating-6.6#267
Pace72.0#101
Improvement-0.3#198

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#192
First Shot+2.2#117
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#324
Layup/Dunks-1.1#209
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#265
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#44
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+1.1#69

Defense
Total Defense-5.6#328
First Shot-6.9#342
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#97
Layups/Dunks-5.4#326
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#79
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#303
Freethrows+0.3#172
Improvement-1.4#291
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.0% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 26.5% 36.5% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 39.6% 52.1% 29.7%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.6% 4.7% 13.4%
First Four1.4% 1.9% 1.1%
First Round2.4% 3.4% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Home) - 44.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 412 - 913 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 16, 2021 259   Austin Peay W 65-60 59%     1 - 0 -3.4 -8.5 +5.4
  Nov 19, 2021 94   @ Minnesota L 49-78 9%     1 - 1 -20.2 -18.7 -0.3
  Nov 26, 2021 327   SE Louisiana W 74-66 65%     2 - 1 -2.1 -6.7 +4.2
  Nov 27, 2021 296   Western Michigan L 85-93 OT 54%     2 - 2 -15.3 +5.4 -20.6
  Nov 28, 2021 192   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 78-85 23%     2 - 3 -5.3 +2.0 -7.1
  Dec 02, 2021 205   Wright St. L 78-79 44%    
  Dec 04, 2021 197   Northern Kentucky L 71-73 44%    
  Dec 08, 2021 322   @ SIU Edwardsville W 74-73 50%    
  Dec 11, 2021 303   Southeast Missouri St. W 81-76 66%    
  Dec 21, 2021 15   @ Michigan L 61-85 1%    
  Dec 30, 2021 252   @ Illinois-Chicago L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 01, 2022 336   @ IUPUI W 69-66 61%    
  Jan 05, 2022 166   @ Cleveland St. L 67-76 20%    
  Jan 07, 2022 279   @ Youngstown St. L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 09, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 13, 2022 231   Detroit Mercy W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 124   Oakland L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 21, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 80-76 63%    
  Jan 23, 2022 279   Youngstown St. W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 28, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 30, 2022 205   @ Wright St. L 75-82 25%    
  Feb 04, 2022 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 06, 2022 301   Green Bay W 76-71 65%    
  Feb 10, 2022 336   IUPUI W 72-63 78%    
  Feb 12, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago W 74-72 57%    
  Feb 14, 2022 166   Cleveland St. L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 18, 2022 301   @ Green Bay L 73-74 45%    
  Feb 20, 2022 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71-75 39%    
  Feb 24, 2022 124   @ Oakland L 68-80 14%    
  Feb 26, 2022 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 75-81 31%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.2 0.7 1.5 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 6.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.5 2.4 3.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 4.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 12.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.4 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 10.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.0 2.7 1.6 0.3 9.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.2 6.8 9.3 10.0 11.4 11.9 10.6 9.0 7.4 4.8 3.6 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
20-2 92.3% 0.0    0.0
19-3 88.6% 0.2    0.1 0.0
18-4 76.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-5 46.4% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
16-6 18.6% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-7 2.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.0% 0.0
20-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-3 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.2
18-4 0.5% 18.7% 18.7% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-5 1.2% 14.6% 14.6% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
16-6 2.4% 10.3% 10.3% 15.8 0.0 0.2 2.1
15-7 3.6% 9.6% 9.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.2
14-8 4.8% 5.9% 5.9% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.5
13-9 7.4% 9.1% 9.1% 15.9 0.0 0.6 6.7
12-10 9.0% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.4 8.6
11-11 10.6% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.3
10-12 11.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 11.6
9-13 11.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 11.3
8-14 10.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.0
7-15 9.3% 9.3
6-16 6.8% 6.8
5-17 5.2% 5.2
4-18 3.2% 3.2
3-19 1.7% 1.7
2-20 0.7% 0.7
1-21 0.3% 0.3
0-22 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 2.4 97.1 0.0%