Purdue Fort Wayne
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #224
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #168
Pace 70.8 #128
Improvement +2.5 #74

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #223 C D B- D- C+
Defense #230 D+ D+ B C+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #219 1.14 #196 -1.2 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #294 0.68 #291 -2.5 #303
Three Pointers 48% #50 1.04 #152 +4.0 #55
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #169 +0.2 #169
Freethrows 0.24 #338 70% #262 0.17 #343
Second Chance 22.5% #349 1.09 #116 0.24 #328
Turnovers 14.6% #73
Total Offense -2.0 #223

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #210 1.20 #248 -0.5 #195
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #346 0.69 #68 +2.8 #11
Three Pointers 48% #30 1.13 #320 -6.0 #355
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #299 -3.8 #299
Freethrows 0.26 #54 77% #354 0.20 #105
Second Chance 35.0% #327 1.06 #205 0.37 #300
Turnovers 19.2% #47
Total Defense -1.7 #230

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #112 1.5% #308
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #184 5.8% #289
Possession Length 17.6 #201 17.1 #131
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #162 0.15 #101
Improvement -1.3 #248 +3.8 #18

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 9.3% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 68.9% 80.6% 52.7%
.500 or above in Conference 92.2% 97.5% 85.0%
Conference Champion 3.9% 5.9% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round7.7% 9.2% 5.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 33 - 54 - 10
Quad 412 - 516 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 75 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 90 9% -15  0 - 1 -8 +2 C+ C- C -9 F D- B+
 Fri, Nov 7 35 @Ohio St. L 68 - 94 4% -14  0 - 2 -9 -1 C- C C- -7 F D A+
 Wed, Nov 12 273 @Western Michigan L 71 - 83 48% -1  0 - 3 -15 -11 F F+ C+ -4 C D+ B
 Tue, Nov 18 104 @Utah L 77 - 85 14% -9  0 - 4 -0 +9 B C- C -10 F B B-
 Fri, Nov 21 26 @Saint Louis L 60 - 91 3% -19  0 - 5 -13 -4 D- C C -9 D- C A+
 Tue, Nov 25 358 Chicago St. W 90 - 77 90% +4  1 - 5 -5 +11 A+ F D- -16 D- F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 135 @Oakland L 92 - 101 21% -8  1 - 6 0 - 1 -4 +9 B- D A+ -13 F D C+
 Sat, Dec 6 179 Northern Kentucky W 79 - 77 53% -2  2 - 6 1 - 1 -2 -2 A- F F -0 C+ C A+
 Wed, Dec 10 242 Eastern Michigan W 80 - 65 64% +12  3 - 6 +8 +10 D+ A+ B -2 D- B- C
 Sun, Dec 14 291 Detroit Mercy W 81 - 77 74% +2  4 - 6 2 - 1 -6 +4 C D- A+ -10 C- D D
 Sun, Dec 21 81 @Notre Dame W 72 - 69 10% +4  5 - 6 +13 +5 B- F+ B+ +8 A- B A+
 Mon, Dec 29 247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 55 - 77 42% -19  5 - 7 2 - 2 -24 -17 F F B -7 C F A+
 Thu, Jan 1 244 Green Bay L 54 - 72 65% -10  5 - 8 2 - 3 -26 -19 D- F F -9 D+ F B-
 Sun, Jan 4 321 Cleveland St. W 74 - 71 80% -4  6 - 8 3 - 3 -10 -5 D F B- -4 B+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 221 @Youngstown St. W 71 - 69 38% +0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +1 +2 C D- B -1 A+ F A
 Sun, Jan 11 203 @Robert Morris W 79 - 74 35% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +5 +12 A- B D- -6 D- A C-
 Sun, Jan 18 247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 100 - 82 65% +9  9 - 8 6 - 3 +10 +18 A+ C A+ -9 F A+ B+
 Wed, Jan 21 291 @Detroit Mercy W 83 - 76 53% +2  10 - 8 7 - 3 +3 +4 C+ F A+ -2 C- B+ B-
 Wed, Jan 28 135 Oakland L 65 - 74 41% -1  10 - 9 7 - 4 -10 -12 F C A- +2 C A- C+
 Sat, Jan 31 203 Robert Morris W 75 - 73 58%
 Wed, Feb 4 221 Youngstown St. W 76 - 73 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 151 @Wright St. L 72 - 79 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 244 @Green Bay L 73 - 75 42%
 Sun, Feb 15 340 IU Indianapolis W 89 - 78 84%
 Wed, Feb 18 179 @Northern Kentucky L 75 - 80 31%
 Sun, Feb 22 321 @Cleveland St. W 82 - 79 60%
 Wed, Feb 25 151 Wright St. L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 340 @IU Indianapolis W 86 - 81 67%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 -4 -2 C D B- -2 D+ D+ B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.4 3.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 5.0 5.5 1.5 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 11.9 11.7 2.8 0.2 29.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 9.6 9.3 1.7 0.0 22.3 4th
5th 0.5 5.2 7.7 1.5 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 5.4 1.9 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.7 2.8 1.7 0.1 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.7 6.0 14.1 22.2 23.7 18.8 9.8 3.2 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 90.3% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 50.2% 1.6    0.6 0.8 0.2
14-6 15.4% 1.5    0.2 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.5% 24.7% 24.7% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-5 3.2% 13.9% 13.9% 14.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.8
14-6 9.8% 14.1% 14.1% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.0 8.4
13-7 18.8% 11.0% 11.0% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.1 16.7
12-8 23.7% 7.8% 7.8% 15.0 0.3 1.3 0.2 21.8
11-9 22.2% 6.1% 6.1% 15.3 0.0 1.0 0.4 20.8
10-10 14.1% 3.5% 3.5% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 13.6
9-11 6.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.9
8-12 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.7
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 14.8 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 13.1 13.0 60.9 26.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%