Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.6#197
Expected Predictive Rating-9.2#301
Pace63.4#313
Improvement+0.8#110

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#180
First Shot-1.9#233
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#83
Layup/Dunks-4.4#319
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#154
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#72
Freethrows-1.5#278
Improvement-0.2#206

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#216
First Shot-0.9#208
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#210
Layups/Dunks-4.4#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#130
Freethrows+4.1#5
Improvement+1.1#77
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 19.4% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 63.8% 79.8% 55.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.6% 91.2% 73.8%
Conference Champion 15.1% 26.8% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four2.7% 2.4% 2.8%
First Round12.6% 18.3% 9.7%
Second Round0.8% 1.5% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 716 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 167   UNC Greensboro L 69-70 OT 56%     0 - 1 -4.1 -6.2 +2.1
  Nov 18, 2021 260   Eastern Michigan W 74-73 75%     1 - 1 -7.5 +1.6 -9.0
  Nov 22, 2021 191   Western Illinois L 67-69 61%     1 - 2 -6.3 -12.1 +5.9
  Nov 26, 2021 86   @ DePaul L 68-77 15%     1 - 3 +0.4 -1.3 +1.6
  Dec 02, 2021 166   @ Cleveland St. L 63-68 34%    
  Dec 04, 2021 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 73-71 56%    
  Dec 08, 2021 284   Canisius W 75-67 78%    
  Dec 18, 2021 160   @ Eastern Kentucky L 73-78 33%    
  Dec 22, 2021 34   @ Indiana L 59-75 7%    
  Dec 30, 2021 301   Green Bay W 71-62 80%    
  Jan 01, 2022 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-63 73%    
  Jan 06, 2022 336   IUPUI W 69-55 89%    
  Jan 08, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago W 70-64 72%    
  Jan 10, 2022 205   Wright St. W 73-70 62%    
  Jan 13, 2022 279   @ Youngstown St. W 70-68 57%    
  Jan 15, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris W 72-70 60%    
  Jan 20, 2022 252   @ Illinois-Chicago W 67-66 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 336   @ IUPUI W 66-58 74%    
  Jan 28, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-68 77%    
  Jan 30, 2022 166   Cleveland St. W 66-65 56%    
  Feb 03, 2022 124   Oakland L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 05, 2022 231   Detroit Mercy W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 09, 2022 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 11, 2022 301   @ Green Bay W 68-65 62%    
  Feb 13, 2022 205   @ Wright St. L 70-73 42%    
  Feb 18, 2022 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 71-72 46%    
  Feb 20, 2022 124   @ Oakland L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 24, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 26, 2022 279   Youngstown St. W 73-65 76%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.1 3.7 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 15.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.3 4.5 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.4 5.1 4.2 2.6 0.5 0.1 15.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.6 3.8 1.1 0.1 12.6 4th
5th 0.4 1.8 4.5 3.8 0.7 0.0 11.2 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 9.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.2 0.7 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 3.7 5.3 6.7 8.2 10.5 11.7 11.1 10.3 9.4 7.6 5.2 3.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
21-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
20-2 98.6% 1.5    1.5 0.1
19-3 91.5% 3.2    2.7 0.5 0.0
18-4 71.2% 3.7    2.5 1.1 0.0
17-5 40.4% 3.1    1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0
16-6 23.6% 2.2    0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0
15-7 6.5% 0.7    0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.9 4.2 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0 0.1% 42.3% 42.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
21-1 0.6% 47.5% 47.5% 13.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
20-2 1.5% 46.9% 46.9% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.8
19-3 3.5% 32.7% 32.7% 14.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 2.3
18-4 5.2% 31.6% 31.6% 14.6 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.2 3.5
17-5 7.6% 29.7% 29.7% 14.9 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 5.3
16-6 9.4% 21.9% 21.9% 15.4 0.2 0.9 1.0 7.3
15-7 10.3% 18.0% 18.0% 15.6 0.1 0.6 1.2 8.4
14-8 11.1% 10.0% 10.0% 15.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 10.0
13-9 11.7% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.1 1.0 10.6
12-10 10.5% 7.4% 7.4% 15.9 0.1 0.7 9.8
11-11 8.2% 4.5% 4.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 7.8
10-12 6.7% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.3 6.4
9-13 5.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 5.2
8-14 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
7-15 2.3% 2.3
6-16 1.3% 1.3
5-17 0.6% 0.6
4-18 0.2% 0.2
3-19 0.2% 0.2
2-20 0.1% 0.1
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 4.5 6.2 86.3 0.0%