IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-2.1	#190
Expected Predictive Rating	-2.6	#208

Pace	72.7	#76
Improvement	-1.2	#243

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#165	C-	C	C-	C	B-
Defense	#243	D	D+	B	C-	C

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	40%	#153	1.20	#122	+1.3	#129
2 Pt. Jumpers	16%	#282	0.69	#282	-2.3	#293
Three Pointers	45%	#109	0.93	#293	-0.1	#184
1st FG Attempt			1.00	#209	-1.1	#208
Freethrows	0.29	#236	73%	#148	0.21	#208
Second Chance	30.1%	#197	1.09	#94	0.33	#142
Turnovers					17.3%	#221
Total Offense					-0.2	#165

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	39%	#179	1.18	#219	-0.7	#200
2 Pt. Jumpers	20%	#189	0.85	#319	-0.8	#250
Three Pointers	41%	#184	1.13	#330	-2.4	#289
1st FG Attempt			1.09	#302	-3.9	#302
Freethrows	0.34	#303	69%	#47	0.24	#261
Second Chance	33.9%	#306	1.08	#266	0.37	#303
Turnovers					19.4%	#47
Total Defense					-1.9	#243

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.4%	#94	0.1%	#179
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-3.5%	#235	7.4%	#315
Possession Length	15.9	#51	17.6	#247
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.27	#12	0.19	#246
Improvement	+1.2	#118	-2.4	#310

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	10.5%	13.3%	9.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	14.5	15.0

.500 or above	88.8%	96.8%	85.9%
.500 or above in Conference	78.7%	93.0%	73.7%
Conference Champion	0.5%	1.7%	0.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	0.4%	0.2%	0.5%
First Round	10.4%	13.2%	9.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Oakland (Away) - 26.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	2 - 7	3 - 9
Quad 4	14 - 5	17 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Sat, Nov 8	19 @Tennessee	L	56 - 95	3%	-18	0 - 1		-18	-6	D+	B+	D-	-13	D-	D-	C-
Wed, Nov 12	140 @East Tennessee St.	L	63 - 75	27%	-8	0 - 2		-8	-10	F	F+	F	+3	F	A+	A+
Thu, Nov 20	294 @Central Michigan	W	90 - 66	60%	+13	1 - 2		+19	+18	B+	A+	C	+2	C-	F	A+
Mon, Nov 24	265 Eastern Kentucky	W	82 - 71	74%	+4	2 - 2		+2	+0	D	A-	C-	+2	C+	D+	B
Wed, Nov 26	188 Wofford	W	93 - 83	61%	+2	3 - 2		+5	+11	C+	B+	A-	-6	C+	C	C
Sat, Nov 29	289 Boston University	W	74 - 65	78%	-2	4 - 2		-1	+2	F	A+	F	-2	D	D-	A+
Wed, Dec 3	307 Cleveland St.	W	95 - 80	82%	+8	5 - 2	1 - 0	+3	+10	A	A	F	-7	F+	F	A+
Sat, Dec 6	215 @Purdue Fort Wayne	L	77 - 79	43%	+2	5 - 3	1 - 1	-2	-1	D-	D+	F+	-1	F	B+	A+
Sat, Dec 13	303 @Bellarmine	W	80 - 76	62%	+6	6 - 3		-1	-1	C	D-	C+	+0	D	C-	A+
Wed, Dec 17	131 Oakland	L	77 - 82	47%	-2	6 - 4	1 - 2	-6	-3	D-	C-	B-	-3	B-	B	C
Sun, Dec 21	152 College of Charleston	L	74 - 85	52%	-4	6 - 5		-14	-4	C	D+	F	-9	F	D-	A-
Mon, Dec 29	218 @Robert Morris	W	79 - 77	43%	-1	7 - 5	2 - 2	+2	+4	C+	D	C-	-2	C-	F	B
Thu, Jan 1	341 IU Indianapolis	W	81 - 72	87%	-3	8 - 5	3 - 2	-6	-1	C	D-	B+	-4	C-	F	A
Sun, Jan 4	226 Youngstown St.	W	94 - 79	67%	+15	9 - 5	4 - 2	+8	+8	B+	B+	C+	-1	A-	B-	F
Fri, Jan 9	247 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	85 - 67	49%	+13	10 - 5	5 - 2	+16	+19	D	A+	B	-1	C+	C-	C-
Sun, Jan 11	254 @Green Bay	L	78 - 80	51%	-13	10 - 6	5 - 3	-4	+13	C	F+	A+	-17	F	D-	C-
Thu, Jan 15	278 Detroit Mercy	W	96 - 71	76%	+12	11 - 6	6 - 3	+15	+11	A+	C	B-	+3	A-	F	F
Sat, Jan 17	218 Robert Morris	L	89 - 92 OT	66%	-3	11 - 7	6 - 4	-9	-3	D	D+	C-	-6	C-	F+	C+
Sat, Jan 24	147 @Wright St.	L	80 - 88	29%	-9	11 - 8	6 - 5	-4	+7	A	C	D	-12	D	C	D
Fri, Jan 30	278 @Detroit Mercy	L	77 - 90	56%	-9	11 - 9	6 - 6	-17	+0	D-	F+	B	-17	F	F	A
Sun, Feb 1	131 @Oakland	L	81 - 88	26%
Wed, Feb 4	254 Green Bay	W	79 - 73	72%
Sat, Feb 7	247 Wisconsin-Milwaukee	W	82 - 76	71%
Thu, Feb 12	341 @IU Indianapolis	W	89 - 83	73%
Wed, Feb 18	215 Purdue Fort Wayne	W	80 - 76	65%
Sat, Feb 21	226 @Youngstown St.	L	76 - 77	44%
Wed, Feb 25	307 @Cleveland St.	W	85 - 81	64%
Sat, Feb 28	147 Wright St.	W	78 - 77	50%
Totals						16 - 12	11 - 9	-2	+0	C-	C	C-	-2	D	D+	B

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Horizon Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3							0.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.6	1.8	0.7							3.1	2nd
3rd											0.3	5.0	10.9	5.2	0.5							21.9	3rd
4th										0.2	6.1	15.3	7.7	0.6	0.0							29.9	4th
5th										2.2	10.9	5.7	0.3									19.0	5th
6th									0.3	6.3	5.5	0.4										12.5	6th
7th								0.0	1.9	4.7	0.7	0.0										7.4	7th
8th								0.4	2.6	0.9	0.0											3.9	8th
9th							0.0	0.7	0.7	0.0												1.5	9th
10th							0.1	0.2	0.1													0.4	10th
11th							0.0															0.0	11th

Total							0.2	1.3	5.6	14.3	23.6	26.4	19.4	7.8	1.5								Total

Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6	20.5%	0.3	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.8%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%	0.0				0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	0.5%	0.5	0.1	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6	1.5%	22.1%	22.1%		13.1												0.1	0.2	0.1	0.0		1.2
13-7	7.8%	19.9%	19.9%		14.1												0.0	0.3	0.9	0.4	0.0	6.2
12-8	19.4%	14.0%	14.0%		14.6													0.1	1.0	1.5	0.1	16.7
11-9	26.4%	11.5%	11.5%		15.0													0.0	0.5	2.0	0.6	23.4
10-10	23.6%	8.1%	8.1%		15.3													0.0	0.1	1.0	0.7	21.7
9-11	14.3%	5.3%	5.3%		15.7															0.3	0.5	13.5
8-12	5.6%	3.5%	3.5%		15.8															0.0	0.2	5.4
7-13	1.3%	2.4%	2.4%		16.0																0.0	1.2
6-14	0.2%																					0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	14.8																	89.5	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	12	13	14	15
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	13.1	20.6	47.1	30.9	1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.5%