Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#210
Expected Predictive Rating-1.3#196
Pace59.9#351
Improvement+0.9#75

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#275
First Shot-3.3#291
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#162
Layup/Dunks-1.8#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#183
Freethrows-1.9#315
Improvement+0.2#159

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#138
First Shot+2.7#94
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#315
Layups/Dunks+2.7#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#59
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#274
Freethrows+0.5#141
Improvement+0.8#65
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 9.6% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 78.9% 92.1% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.4%
Conference Champion 9.2% 14.8% 4.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.7% 1.9%
First Round7.8% 9.3% 6.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Away) - 47.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 64 - 10
Quad 411 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 73   Kent St. L 57-79 27%     0 - 1 -17.6 -5.7 -13.9
  Nov 16, 2022 56   Cincinnati W 64-51 21%     1 - 1 +19.5 +1.8 +19.2
  Nov 21, 2022 171   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-82 42%     1 - 2 -21.0 -10.7 -10.8
  Nov 22, 2022 274   Texas Arlington L 56-60 64%     1 - 3 -9.8 -11.3 +1.0
  Nov 23, 2022 104   Toledo L 69-82 28%     1 - 4 -8.9 -5.5 -3.8
  Nov 27, 2022 303   Tennessee Tech W 85-77 2OT 79%     2 - 4 -2.5 -1.1 -2.0
  Dec 01, 2022 131   Youngstown St. W 77-73 2OT 44%     3 - 4 1 - 0 +3.4 -11.6 +14.5
  Dec 03, 2022 242   Robert Morris W 60-56 68%     4 - 4 2 - 0 -2.9 -7.0 +4.6
  Dec 07, 2022 63   @ Washington St. L 47-68 11%     4 - 5 -9.8 -10.1 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2022 193   Eastern Kentucky W 64-61 57%     5 - 5 -0.9 -2.9 +2.4
  Dec 21, 2022 52   @ Florida Atlantic L 52-67 9%     5 - 6 -2.4 -10.6 +6.9
  Dec 29, 2022 201   Wright St. W 78-64 59%     6 - 6 3 - 0 +9.7 +7.7 +2.8
  Dec 31, 2022 359   @ IUPUI W 55-42 85%     7 - 6 4 - 0 +0.0 -13.7 +16.3
  Jan 06, 2023 249   Oakland L 63-64 70%     7 - 7 4 - 1 -8.4 -8.9 +0.4
  Jan 08, 2023 222   Detroit Mercy W 78-76 OT 64%     8 - 7 5 - 1 -3.6 -2.6 -1.0
  Jan 12, 2023 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-80 40%     8 - 8 5 - 2 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3
  Jan 14, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 74-53 88%     9 - 8 6 - 2 +6.4 +7.3 +3.0
  Jan 19, 2023 180   Cleveland St. W 57-56 54%     10 - 8 7 - 2 -2.1 -12.3 +10.4
  Jan 21, 2023 204   Purdue Fort Wayne W 74-54 59%     11 - 8 8 - 2 +15.5 +10.9 +7.8
  Jan 26, 2023 362   Green Bay W 68-50 94%     12 - 8 9 - 2 -2.0 -0.7 +2.5
  Jan 28, 2023 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-75 61%     12 - 9 9 - 3 -6.0 -5.2 -0.7
  Feb 02, 2023 242   @ Robert Morris L 61-62 47%    
  Feb 04, 2023 131   @ Youngstown St. L 65-72 25%    
  Feb 10, 2023 201   @ Wright St. L 66-69 37%    
  Feb 12, 2023 359   IUPUI W 71-55 94%    
  Feb 17, 2023 204   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 63-66 38%    
  Feb 19, 2023 180   @ Cleveland St. L 59-63 33%    
  Feb 23, 2023 222   @ Detroit Mercy L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 25, 2023 249   @ Oakland L 65-66 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.4 4.5 1.8 0.2 9.2 1st
2nd 0.1 3.6 8.6 2.8 0.1 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 12.7 5.7 0.3 22.3 3rd
4th 0.0 2.3 14.8 8.7 0.6 0.0 26.3 4th
5th 0.3 7.7 7.4 0.4 15.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.7 5.3 0.5 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 0.8 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.3 4.8 16.0 26.4 25.6 17.2 7.6 1.9 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-4 95.5% 1.8    1.3 0.5 0.0
15-5 59.6% 4.5    1.3 2.2 0.9 0.1
14-6 13.8% 2.4    0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 3.1 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.2% 18.5% 18.5% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-4 1.9% 18.5% 18.5% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-5 7.6% 15.5% 15.5% 14.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 6.4
14-6 17.2% 11.5% 11.5% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.3 15.2
13-7 25.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.2 0.1 1.4 0.6 23.4
12-8 26.4% 6.5% 6.5% 15.7 0.0 0.5 1.2 24.6
11-9 16.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.7 15.3
10-10 4.8% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.2 4.6
9-11 0.3% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.0 3.1 91.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 18.5% 13.6 0.8 8.1 8.1 1.6
Lose Out 0.3% 5.3% 16.0 5.3