Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#191
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#128
Pace69.2#192
Improvement+2.9#24

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#201
First Shot-3.9#287
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#48
Layup/Dunks-0.9#207
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#152
Freethrows-1.0#229
Improvement+1.9#47

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#194
First Shot-3.8#301
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#34
Layups/Dunks-2.1#256
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#99
Freethrows-4.4#353
Improvement+1.1#87
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.0% 11.9% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.4 14.8
.500 or above 80.6% 84.7% 64.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.4% 79.5% 55.1%
Conference Champion 12.8% 14.9% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 1.0% 4.4%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.8%
First Round10.7% 11.7% 6.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cleveland St. (Home) - 79.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 414 - 518 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 16 @Tennessee L 56-95 3%     0 - 1 -18.8 -6.1 -12.9
  Wed, Nov 12 137 @East Tennessee St. L 63-75 26%     0 - 2 -7.4 -8.8 +1.7
  Thu, Nov 20 310 @Central Michigan W 90-66 62%     1 - 2 +18.9 +16.3 +3.2
  Mon, Nov 24 263 Eastern Kentucky W 82-71 74%     2 - 2 +2.3 +1.8 +0.3
  Wed, Nov 26 213 Wofford W 93-83 66%     3 - 2 +3.8 +10.2 -7.0
  Sat, Nov 29 234 Boston University W 74-65 70%     4 - 2 +1.6 +2.9 -0.1
  Wed, Dec 3 299 Cleveland St. W 83-74 79%    
  Sat, Dec 6 241 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 76-77 48%    
  Sat, Dec 13 295 @Bellarmine W 76-74 58%    
  Wed, Dec 17 139 Oakland L 79-80 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 177 College of Charleston W 74-72 58%    
  Mon, Dec 29 182 @Robert Morris L 69-72 38%    
  Thu, Jan 1 354 IU Indianapolis W 95-82 89%    
  Sun, Jan 4 176 Youngstown St. W 75-73 58%    
  Fri, Jan 9 218 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 75-77 44%    
  Sun, Jan 11 261 @Green Bay W 71-70 52%    
  Thu, Jan 15 315 Detroit Mercy W 81-71 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 182 Robert Morris W 72-69 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 161 @Wright St. L 69-74 34%    
  Fri, Jan 30 315 @Detroit Mercy W 78-74 63%    
  Sun, Feb 1 139 @Oakland L 76-83 28%    
  Wed, Feb 4 261 Green Bay W 74-68 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 218 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-74 65%    
  Thu, Feb 12 354 @IU Indianapolis W 92-85 75%    
  Wed, Feb 18 241 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-74 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 176 @Youngstown St. L 72-76 37%    
  Wed, Feb 25 299 @Cleveland St. W 80-77 59%    
  Sat, Feb 28 161 Wright St. W 72-71 55%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.3 3.3 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 12.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.1 5.0 3.6 1.3 0.2 14.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 4.1 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.2 5.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.5 5.3 2.3 0.2 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 4.8 2.0 0.2 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.7 1.3 0.1 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.7 0.8 0.1 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.0 2.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 4.4 6.8 9.1 11.1 12.6 12.8 11.6 9.9 7.5 4.6 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.1
17-3 92.8% 2.5    2.1 0.4 0.0
16-4 70.6% 3.3    2.2 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 43.8% 3.3    1.6 1.3 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-6 16.7% 1.7    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.8% 12.8 7.8 3.7 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 37.6% 37.6% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.2% 37.3% 37.3% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
17-3 2.7% 31.1% 31.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.9
16-4 4.6% 25.7% 25.7% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 3.4
15-5 7.5% 23.0% 23.0% 14.1 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.8
14-6 9.9% 16.6% 16.6% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 8.3
13-7 11.6% 13.5% 13.5% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 10.1
12-8 12.8% 10.9% 10.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 11.4
11-9 12.6% 7.2% 7.2% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 11.7
10-10 11.1% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 10.5
9-11 9.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 8.8
8-12 6.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
7-13 4.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.3
6-14 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
5-15 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.0% 11.0% 0.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.7 3.8 1.5 89.0 0.0%