Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#279
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#296
Pace67.4#226
Improvement-0.4#216

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#213
First Shot+1.5#133
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#325
Layup/Dunks+3.1#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#256
Freethrows+0.0#176
Improvement-1.9#331

Defense
Total Defense-4.9#314
First Shot-3.8#287
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#255
Layups/Dunks+1.7#120
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#210
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#310
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement+1.5#59
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 4.2% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 27.6% 41.8% 19.4%
.500 or above in Conference 38.2% 54.7% 28.6%
Conference Champion 1.7% 3.2% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 4.1% 12.9%
First Four1.7% 2.1% 1.5%
First Round2.1% 3.2% 1.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Away) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 8
Quad 412 - 1013 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 67   @ Penn St. L 59-75 7%     0 - 1 -5.7 -2.0 -5.5
  Nov 13, 2021 303   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 97-79 45%     1 - 1 +13.1 +13.9 -2.0
  Nov 19, 2021 329   St. Thomas W 79-75 77%     2 - 1 -9.9 -3.6 -6.2
  Nov 20, 2021 322   SIU Edwardsville L 66-69 72%     2 - 2 -15.2 -11.7 -3.6
  Nov 21, 2021 180   Niagara L 53-58 41%     2 - 3 -9.0 -14.7 +5.1
  Dec 02, 2021 264   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 04, 2021 301   @ Green Bay L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 08, 2021 304   Central Michigan W 78-73 67%    
  Dec 11, 2021 284   Canisius W 76-73 61%    
  Dec 22, 2021 45   @ West Virginia L 61-80 4%    
  Dec 30, 2021 231   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-78 31%    
  Jan 01, 2022 124   @ Oakland L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 05, 2022 290   @ Robert Morris L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 07, 2022 274   Purdue Fort Wayne W 77-74 61%    
  Jan 09, 2022 166   Cleveland St. L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 13, 2022 197   Northern Kentucky L 68-70 43%    
  Jan 15, 2022 205   Wright St. L 75-76 45%    
  Jan 21, 2022 166   @ Cleveland St. L 64-73 20%    
  Jan 23, 2022 274   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 74-77 39%    
  Jan 27, 2022 301   Green Bay W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 29, 2022 264   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 03, 2022 336   @ IUPUI W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 252   @ Illinois-Chicago L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 09, 2022 124   Oakland L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 11, 2022 231   Detroit Mercy W 75-74 49%    
  Feb 13, 2022 290   Robert Morris W 76-72 63%    
  Feb 17, 2022 252   Illinois-Chicago W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 19, 2022 336   IUPUI W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 24, 2022 205   @ Wright St. L 72-79 26%    
  Feb 26, 2022 197   @ Northern Kentucky L 65-73 24%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 10 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.7 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 11.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.4 2.8 0.6 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.1 3.1 3.0 1.4 0.3 9.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 6.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.6 7.6 8.8 10.8 11.4 11.8 10.2 8.4 6.8 5.4 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
20-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-3 84.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-4 64.7% 0.3    0.2 0.2
17-5 44.8% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-6 18.9% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1
15-7 5.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
14-8 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 0.0% 0.0
20-2 0.1% 8.6% 8.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-3 0.3% 24.4% 24.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-4 0.5% 15.6% 15.6% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-5 1.1% 16.3% 16.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.9
16-6 2.0% 16.4% 16.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 1.7
15-7 3.5% 11.3% 11.3% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.1
14-8 5.4% 7.1% 7.1% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.0
13-9 6.8% 6.0% 6.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4 6.4
12-10 8.4% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.1
11-11 10.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.5 9.7
10-12 11.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 11.6
9-13 11.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 11.2
8-14 10.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.8
7-15 8.8% 8.8
6-16 7.6% 7.6
5-17 5.6% 5.6
4-18 3.1% 3.1
3-19 1.8% 1.8
2-20 0.7% 0.7
1-21 0.2% 0.2
0-22 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 97.1 0.0%