Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.4#164
Expected Predictive Rating-0.3#169
Pace68.4#212
Improvement+0.4#144

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#217
First Shot-0.4#181
After Offensive Rebound-1.5#274
Layup/Dunks-3.7#306
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#21
Freethrows-1.9#294
Improvement-1.3#283

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#122
First Shot+1.0#138
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#162
Layups/Dunks-5.1#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#178
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.6#7
Freethrows-1.8#298
Improvement+1.7#73
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.3% 16.1% 11.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 89.1% 92.0% 75.6%
.500 or above in Conference 90.5% 93.3% 77.3%
Conference Champion 19.0% 21.3% 8.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round15.2% 16.0% 11.0%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Detroit Mercy (Home) - 82.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 34 - 65 - 8
Quad 413 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 102 @Pittsburgh L 59-74 22%     0 - 1 -7.4 -7.8 -0.6
  Fri, Nov 7 80 @Grand Canyon W 90-81 17%     1 - 1 +18.9 +21.2 -2.6
  Sat, Nov 15 115 @St. Bonaventure L 80-84 26%     1 - 2 +2.4 +10.1 -7.7
  Wed, Nov 19 167 @Toledo L 75-92 39%     1 - 3 -14.7 -4.3 -9.3
  Sun, Nov 23 292 UNC Greensboro L 62-68 74%     1 - 4 -13.0 -17.2 +4.4
  Mon, Nov 24 211 Georgia Southern W 67-61 61%     2 - 4 +2.7 -7.4 +10.3
  Fri, Nov 28 335 Chicago St. W 87-64 89%     3 - 4 +9.2 +6.7 +2.4
  Wed, Dec 3 153 Wright St. W 69-68 58%     4 - 4 1 - 0 -1.4 -3.8 +2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 356 @IU Indianapolis W 78-55 84%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +12.0 +2.1 +11.0
  Wed, Dec 17 183 @Robert Morris L 77-80 OT 43%     5 - 5 2 - 1 -1.6 +7.7 -9.4
  Sat, Dec 20 269 South Carolina Upstate W 74-65 78%     6 - 5 +0.3 -2.6 +2.8
  Mon, Dec 29 296 Detroit Mercy W 76-66 82%    
  Thu, Jan 1 135 Oakland W 79-78 53%    
  Sun, Jan 4 199 @Northern Kentucky L 72-73 46%    
  Wed, Jan 7 217 Purdue Fort Wayne W 79-73 71%    
  Thu, Jan 15 153 @Wright St. L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Jan 17 328 @Cleveland St. W 79-73 72%    
  Thu, Jan 22 264 Green Bay W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 222 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-71 72%    
  Fri, Jan 30 356 IU Indianapolis W 92-75 94%    
  Wed, Feb 4 217 @Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 183 Robert Morris W 72-68 65%    
  Thu, Feb 12 135 @Oakland L 76-81 32%    
  Sun, Feb 15 296 @Detroit Mercy W 73-69 64%    
  Wed, Feb 18 328 Cleveland St. W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Feb 21 199 Northern Kentucky W 75-70 67%    
  Wed, Feb 25 222 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-74 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 264 @Green Bay W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.4 5.1 5.9 3.6 1.3 0.2 19.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.6 5.7 1.8 0.3 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 4.2 7.6 4.4 0.9 0.0 17.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.3 6.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 5.2 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.7 2.5 0.3 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.0 8.3 11.9 14.4 16.0 14.9 11.8 7.7 3.9 1.3 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.1
17-3 92.4% 3.6    3.1 0.6 0.0
16-4 75.8% 5.9    3.9 1.9 0.1
15-5 43.7% 5.1    2.2 2.3 0.6 0.0
14-6 16.4% 2.4    0.5 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.0% 19.0 11.1 6.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.2% 32.4% 32.4% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.3% 41.3% 41.3% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.8
17-3 3.9% 33.4% 33.4% 13.2 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.6
16-4 7.7% 27.7% 27.7% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 5.6
15-5 11.8% 24.2% 24.2% 13.9 0.1 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.0 8.9
14-6 14.9% 18.4% 18.4% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.0 12.2
13-7 16.0% 14.6% 14.6% 14.5 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.1 13.7
12-8 14.4% 10.7% 10.7% 14.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.2 12.8
11-9 11.9% 8.2% 8.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 10.9
10-10 8.3% 6.4% 6.4% 15.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 7.8
9-11 5.0% 2.9% 2.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.9
8-12 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.6
7-13 1.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.2
6-14 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.3% 15.3% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.6 3.2 5.8 4.7 1.0 84.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 45.5 50.0 4.5