Youngstown St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#139
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#143
Pace70.7#132
Improvement+0.2#42

Offense
Total Offense+5.2#49
First Shot+4.4#61
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#122
Layup/Dunks+6.2#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#156
Freethrows-1.5#272
Improvement+0.1#78

Defense
Total Defense-3.1#272
First Shot-3.5#282
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#170
Layups/Dunks-2.6#277
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#349
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#142
Freethrows+1.2#117
Improvement+0.1#83
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.9% 34.2% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.5
.500 or above 97.4% 99.0% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 96.7% 98.7% 93.5%
Conference Champion 37.6% 46.5% 23.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.0% 0.7% 1.3%
First Round29.5% 33.8% 22.7%
Second Round3.0% 3.8% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Kentucky (Away) - 61.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 44 - 5
Quad 417 - 321 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 293   @ Canisius W 92-81 73%     1 - 0 +6.8 +5.3 +0.1
  Nov 09, 2022 328   Tennessee Martin W 90-72 93%     2 - 0 +4.0 +3.6 -0.5
  Nov 13, 2022 77   @ Notre Dame L 81-88 23%     2 - 1 +3.0 +9.7 -6.7
  Nov 19, 2022 283   UC San Diego W 73-54 79%     3 - 1 +12.7 +2.8 +11.6
  Nov 20, 2022 170   @ Navy L 67-80 47%     3 - 2 -10.1 +0.6 -11.7
  Nov 26, 2022 298   @ Western Illinois W 88-64 74%     4 - 2 +19.3 +10.8 +8.4
  Dec 01, 2022 237   @ Northern Kentucky W 72-69 61%    
  Dec 04, 2022 144   @ Wright St. L 77-80 41%    
  Dec 11, 2022 157   Ohio W 78-74 66%    
  Dec 16, 2022 214   Southern W 82-74 77%    
  Dec 21, 2022 244   @ Central Michigan W 80-77 61%    
  Dec 29, 2022 202   Cleveland St. W 73-66 74%    
  Dec 31, 2022 198   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-71 73%    
  Jan 05, 2023 294   Robert Morris W 80-68 87%    
  Jan 07, 2023 359   IUPUI W 86-64 98%    
  Jan 12, 2023 197   @ Detroit Mercy W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 14, 2023 301   @ Oakland W 84-77 73%    
  Jan 19, 2023 362   @ Green Bay W 80-64 93%    
  Jan 21, 2023 229   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 27, 2023 301   Oakland W 87-74 88%    
  Jan 29, 2023 197   Detroit Mercy W 81-74 72%    
  Feb 02, 2023 144   Wright St. W 80-77 62%    
  Feb 04, 2023 237   Northern Kentucky W 75-66 79%    
  Feb 10, 2023 198   @ Purdue Fort Wayne W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 12, 2023 202   @ Cleveland St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 16, 2023 229   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82-73 78%    
  Feb 18, 2023 362   Green Bay W 83-61 97%    
  Feb 21, 2023 294   @ Robert Morris W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 25, 2023 359   @ IUPUI W 83-67 92%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 4.9 9.1 10.0 7.6 3.7 1.0 37.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.7 6.2 7.9 4.9 1.4 0.2 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.9 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 2.7 2.6 0.6 0.0 6.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.0 4.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 3.6 5.6 8.5 11.7 14.1 15.1 14.2 11.4 7.8 3.7 1.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 3.7    3.7 0.0
18-2 97.8% 7.6    7.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 87.5% 10.0    8.0 2.0 0.0
16-4 63.8% 9.1    5.3 3.3 0.5 0.0
15-5 32.6% 4.9    1.7 2.3 0.9 0.1
14-6 8.7% 1.2    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 37.6% 37.6 26.9 8.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 75.3% 68.5% 6.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 21.4%
19-1 3.7% 63.7% 63.6% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.4 0.3%
18-2 7.8% 53.8% 53.8% 13.3 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.2 3.6
17-3 11.4% 45.1% 45.1% 13.7 0.2 1.7 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.3
16-4 14.2% 36.9% 36.9% 14.1 0.0 0.9 2.9 1.3 0.1 9.0
15-5 15.1% 31.0% 31.0% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.0 0.3 10.4
14-6 14.1% 23.9% 23.9% 14.8 0.1 1.0 1.8 0.5 10.7
13-7 11.7% 17.6% 17.6% 15.1 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.6 9.6
12-8 8.5% 13.1% 13.1% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 7.4
11-9 5.6% 10.3% 10.3% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 5.0
10-10 3.6% 6.9% 6.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.4
9-11 1.8% 5.3% 5.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.7
8-12 0.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
7-13 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.9% 29.8% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 6.4 10.9 7.7 2.7 70.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 82.1% 10.7 1.5 5.1 2.6 7.3 8.4 33.0 18.3 5.9