Preseason Rankings
Youngstown St.
Horizon
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.0#70
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.2#206
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#173
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.1% 23.7% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 13.3 14.2
.500 or above 71.5% 89.9% 68.6%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 89.2% 77.0%
Conference Champion 21.9% 33.7% 20.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four1.4% 1.0% 1.4%
First Round16.3% 24.1% 15.1%
Second Round0.8% 2.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pittsburgh (Away) - 13.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 54 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 77   @ Pittsburgh L 66-78 13%    
  Nov 07, 2025 80   @ Grand Canyon L 71-82 15%    
  Nov 15, 2025 120   @ St. Bonaventure L 64-71 27%    
  Nov 19, 2025 180   @ Toledo L 76-79 40%    
  Nov 23, 2025 225   UNC Greensboro W 69-67 58%    
  Nov 24, 2025 249   Georgia Southern W 77-74 62%    
  Nov 28, 2025 349   Chicago St. W 81-67 88%    
  Dec 03, 2025 191   Wright St. W 76-72 62%    
  Dec 06, 2025 359   @ IU Indianapolis W 76-66 81%    
  Dec 17, 2025 207   @ Robert Morris L 72-74 44%    
  Dec 20, 2025 336   South Carolina Upstate W 85-73 85%    
  Dec 29, 2025 309   Detroit Mercy W 77-67 80%    
  Jan 01, 2026 197   Oakland W 71-67 63%    
  Jan 04, 2026 266   @ Northern Kentucky W 70-69 54%    
  Jan 07, 2026 192   Purdue Fort Wayne W 78-74 62%    
  Jan 15, 2026 191   @ Wright St. L 73-75 42%    
  Jan 17, 2026 232   @ Cleveland St. L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 22, 2026 314   Green Bay W 80-70 81%    
  Jan 24, 2026 214   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-72 65%    
  Jan 30, 2026 359   IU Indianapolis W 79-63 91%    
  Feb 04, 2026 192   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 07, 2026 207   Robert Morris W 75-71 64%    
  Feb 12, 2026 197   @ Oakland L 68-70 43%    
  Feb 15, 2026 309   @ Detroit Mercy W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 18, 2026 232   Cleveland St. W 72-66 68%    
  Feb 21, 2026 266   Northern Kentucky W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 25, 2026 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 28, 2026 314   @ Green Bay W 77-73 63%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.9 5.3 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.5 21.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.9 5.1 4.8 2.3 0.6 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 4.6 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.0 2.0 0.2 0.0 9.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.5 1.5 0.1 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.1 0.9 0.1 0.0 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.8 5.3 6.9 8.4 9.7 10.4 11.1 10.3 9.6 7.7 5.8 3.5 1.8 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.0
18-2 96.8% 3.4    3.1 0.2
17-3 89.2% 5.2    4.3 0.8 0.0
16-4 68.8% 5.3    3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
15-5 40.3% 3.9    1.8 1.6 0.5 0.0
14-6 15.6% 1.6    0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.9% 21.9 15.3 5.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 63.7% 63.7% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.8% 52.3% 51.8% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8 1.0%
18-2 3.5% 48.1% 48.1% 12.7 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8
17-3 5.8% 37.8% 37.8% 13.2 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.2 3.6
16-4 7.7% 31.2% 31.2% 13.8 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 5.3
15-5 9.6% 25.1% 25.1% 14.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.2 7.2
14-6 10.3% 18.5% 18.5% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 8.4
13-7 11.1% 15.1% 15.1% 16.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.6 9.4
12-8 10.4% 10.1% 10.1% 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 9.4
11-9 9.7% 8.4% 8.4% 18.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 8.9
10-10 8.4% 5.3% 5.3% 18.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 7.9
9-11 6.9% 2.6% 2.6% 18.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 6.7
8-12 5.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.3
7-13 3.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 3.7
6-14 2.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.4
5-15 1.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.5
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.1% 16.1% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.4 4.1 3.9 3.0 83.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 9.3 16.7 33.1 16.7 33.5