Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.4 #290
Expected Predictive Rating -5.9 #259
Pace 71.5 #101
Improvement +7.2 #7

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #144 B- C- D B+ C
Defense #358 D F+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #326 1.07 #286 -4.9 #337
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #284 0.65 #331 -2.7 #309
Three Pointers 52% #18 1.20 #8 +10.3 #2
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #97 +2.6 #96
Freethrows 0.35 #57 77% #43 0.27 #34
Second Chance 27.8% #260 1.03 #169 0.29 #242
Turnovers 19.2% #310
Total Offense +0.8 #144

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #282 1.32 #346 -0.9 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #292 0.91 #355 +0.1 #183
Three Pointers 48% #21 1.04 #223 -4.2 #334
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #327 -5.0 #327
Freethrows 0.29 #134 78% #361 0.23 #206
Second Chance 37.7% #360 1.07 #253 0.40 #347
Turnovers 15.0% #302
Total Defense -8.2 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #164 0.5% #211
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.7% #93 9.3% #338
Possession Length 17.1 #152 16.7 #86
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #94 0.23 #335
Improvement +4.5 #18 +2.7 #44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 27.0% 40.2% 11.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.0% 0.0% 2.1%
First Four1.2% 1.6% 0.7%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: IU Indianapolis (Away) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 33 - 74 - 11
Quad 47 - 810 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 272 @Loyola Chicago L 88 - 91 34% -2  0 - 1 -6 +11 B- A- F -17 D C F
 Mon, Nov 10 67 @Northwestern L 63 - 110 5% -24  0 - 2 -36 -8 C C F -25 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 15 139 Kent St. L 95 - 102 20% -2  0 - 3 -6 +15 A A+ F+ -20 D F F
 Sun, Nov 16 232 Radford W 87 - 82 37% -9  1 - 3 +1 -2 C F D+ +2 A- D- C
 Wed, Nov 19 159 Valparaiso L 75 - 90 34% -12  1 - 4 -18 +3 C D+ A -22 F F D
 Sat, Nov 22 139 @Kent St. L 71 - 91 14% -14  1 - 5 -16 -7 D+ D F -6 F C+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 53 @Missouri L 59 - 86 4% -19  1 - 6 -14 -9 C- F+ F -4 C- F A-
 Wed, Dec 3 201 @Northern Kentucky L 80 - 95 23% -8  1 - 7 0 - 1 -15 +5 B+ B- F -20 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 261 Detroit Mercy L 59 - 71 55% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -21 -13 F C- F -9 C- B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 121 @UAB L 77 - 101 12% -7  1 - 9 -19 +3 A F D+ -20 F D+ D
 Sun, Dec 21 271 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71 - 81 57% +0  1 - 10 0 - 3 -19 -1 F+ D A+ -19 D F+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 338 IU Indianapolis W 99 - 86 75% +10  2 - 10 1 - 3 -1 +9 C+ C B -12 B- F+ D-
 Sun, Jan 4 239 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 71 - 74 29% +4  2 - 11 1 - 4 -5 +0 F+ A+ D -5 C D+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 144 @Oakland L 72 - 97 14% -13  2 - 12 1 - 5 -21 -6 F C+ C- -13 B- F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 261 @Detroit Mercy L 84 - 94 33% -11  2 - 13 1 - 6 -13 +2 A- F F -14 F F A
 Thu, Jan 15 250 Green Bay L 73 - 88 52% -2  2 - 14 1 - 7 -23 +3 B F+ D+ -28 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 197 Youngstown St. W 80 - 78 42% +1  3 - 14 2 - 7 -3 +6 A+ C- D -9 C A F
 Wed, Jan 21 148 @Wright St. W 85 - 79 15% -0  4 - 14 3 - 7 +10 +14 B+ D A- -4 B F+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 250 @Green Bay W 89 - 82 30% +5  5 - 14 4 - 7 +5 +17 A+ A+ D- -12 D+ F+ D-
 Sun, Feb 1 271 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 90 - 88 34% +4  6 - 14 5 - 7 -1 +15 A+ B+ C -16 F F C-
 Wed, Feb 4 144 Oakland W 91 - 78 30% -2  7 - 14 6 - 7 +11 +12 A+ D- C -1 C B- A-
 Sat, Feb 7 338 @IU Indianapolis W 90 - 89 54%
 Thu, Feb 12 214 Robert Morris L 78 - 79 45%
 Sun, Feb 15 148 Wright St. L 78 - 83 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 197 @Youngstown St. L 76 - 84 22%
 Sun, Feb 22 239 Purdue Fort Wayne W 82 - 81 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 201 Northern Kentucky L 82 - 84 43%
 Sat, Feb 28 214 @Robert Morris L 75 - 82 25%
Totals 10 - 18 9 - 11 -7 +1 B- C- D -8 D F+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 1.4 0.1 4.7 3rd
4th 0.1 4.1 3.8 0.3 8.3 4th
5th 1.7 7.9 1.0 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 7.3 4.2 0.0 11.7 6th
7th 0.0 3.0 11.8 0.8 15.6 7th
8th 1.1 11.7 5.9 0.0 18.8 8th
9th 0.9 8.7 10.1 0.6 20.4 9th
10th 3.0 5.8 1.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 4.1 15.7 25.9 27.4 17.3 7.6 1.9 0.2 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 4.5% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 1.9% 6.5% 6.5% 15.6 0.1 0.1 1.7
11-9 7.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.3 7.4
10-10 17.3% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.5 16.9
9-11 27.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.4 27.0
8-12 25.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 25.8
7-13 15.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.6
6-14 4.1% 4.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 16.0 98.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%