Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
153 Marist 25.9%   15   15 - 7 10 - 4 +0.1      -5.1 303 +5.2 50 65.5 266 -0.8 179 -1.2 4
175 Siena 19.8%   17 - 7 10 - 3 -1.0      +0.3 153 -1.4 225 63.4 318 -0.9 183 -1.1 3
189 Quinnipiac 15.5%   15 - 9 9 - 5 -1.8      -2.5 237 +0.6 141 75.9 29 -0.2 166 -2.6 5
194 Merrimack 16.3%   15 - 9 11 - 2 -2.0      -2.6 240 +0.6 146 62.7 331 +0.6 150 +4.8 1
231 St. Peter's 9.7%   12 - 8 10 - 3 -4.0      -3.4 260 -0.6 191 63.8 311 -2.5 207 +0.4 2
235 Iona 6.2%   14 - 10 6 - 7 -4.1      -3.8 273 -0.3 174 73.0 73 -2.3 203 -7.2 7
266 Fairfield 3.1%   14 - 10 7 - 7 -5.9      -1.5 209 -4.5 306 67.4 222 -3.9 225 -6.8 6
278 Sacred Heart 2.0%   9 - 15 6 - 8 -6.7      -0.5 175 -6.2 339 71.7 101 -7.8 291 -8.1 9
298 Mount St. Mary's 1.2%   9 - 15 6 - 8 -8.0      -6.7 337 -1.3 221 69.4 165 -7.6 285 -7.6 8
328 Manhattan 0.3%   8 - 16 5 - 9 -10.5      -2.1 227 -8.3 359 69.2 168 -9.9 323 -9.9 10
342 Niagara 0.1%   5 - 17 3 - 10 -11.7      -6.7 339 -5.0 315 59.6 362 -13.5 349 -13.0 11
349 Canisius 0.1%   7 - 17 3 - 11 -12.1      -8.3 351 -3.8 288 62.7 330 -10.6 327 -13.1 12
352 Rider 0.0%   2 - 19 2 - 11 -13.2      -6.2 329 -7.0 345 63.6 315 -18.8 358 -14.4 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 3 349 Canisius 56 342 Niagara 65   
Thu, Feb 5 235 Iona 72 175 Siena 79   
Thu, Feb 5 328 Manhattan 75 231 St. Peter's 80   
Thu, Feb 5 266 Fairfield 92 278 Sacred Heart 87   
Thu, Feb 5 194 Merrimack 87 298 Mount St. Mary's 70   
Thu, Feb 5 349 Canisius 60 189 Quinnipiac 75   
Thu, Feb 5 153 Marist 81 352 Rider 52   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 231 St. Peter's 69 175 Siena 68 50%   
Sat, Feb 7 266 Fairfield 67 153 Marist 70 62%   
Sat, Feb 7 235 Iona 76 298 Mount St. Mary's 69 75%   
Sat, Feb 7 328 Manhattan 81 278 Sacred Heart 82 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 342 Niagara 63 189 Quinnipiac 76 88%   
Sat, Feb 7 194 Merrimack 71 352 Rider 63 78%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.5 24.6 30.4 23.7 13.2 7.3 0.7 0.2
Siena 2.6 26.1 28.9 19.6 13.9 10.3 1.1 0.1
Quinnipiac 3.6 5.8 16.1 24.7 27.9 21.6 3.0 0.8 0.1
Merrimack 1.5 68.5 18.0 8.0 3.9 1.4 0.2 0.0
St. Peter's 3.3 11.8 21.7 21.9 22.5 18.2 3.3 0.6 0.1
Iona 6.2 0.1 1.5 5.3 14.8 44.9 19.9 8.7 3.4 1.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 7.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 7.0 26.3 30.5 20.1 11.2 1.8 0.0
Sacred Heart 7.7 0.0 0.3 2.2 16.3 25.2 27.2 20.6 7.7 0.5 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 7.8 0.0 0.2 2.1 16.5 23.3 27.4 23.4 6.1 0.9 0.1
Manhattan 9.5 0.1 1.7 5.0 10.6 21.2 46.1 11.9 3.3 0.1
Niagara 11.2 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.6 16.7 37.9 27.0 12.1
Canisius 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 3.0 13.7 34.8 32.4 15.3
Rider 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.8 22.5 27.6 44.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 14 - 6 19 - 9 0.2 1.7 7.9 20.6 31.6 27.3 10.8
Siena 14 - 6 21 - 10 0.1 2.2 8.6 20.4 29.9 24.6 11.5 2.6
Quinnipiac 13 - 7 19 - 11 0.2 1.5 7.1 20.1 32.8 28.9 9.4
Merrimack 15 - 5 19 - 12 0.2 1.4 6.2 16.4 26.8 27.1 17.1 4.9
St. Peter's 13 - 7 15 - 12 0.8 6.1 17.8 28.5 26.6 14.6 4.9 0.8
Iona 11 - 9 19 - 12 0.1 1.0 5.5 15.1 26.3 28.6 18.5 4.8
Fairfield 10 - 10 17 - 13 2.8 13.3 28.2 29.8 18.5 6.6 0.9
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 12 - 18 1.1 8.9 22.7 32.0 24.7 9.5 1.1
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 12 - 18 1.4 8.9 23.0 33.1 23.4 8.9 1.3
Manhattan 7 - 13 10 - 20 7.5 23.2 30.8 24.4 11.1 2.9 0.2
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 7.4 21.5 30.1 24.4 11.7 4.2 0.7 0.1
Canisius 5 - 15 9 - 21 8.4 25.9 32.3 21.8 9.2 2.3 0.2
Rider 4 - 16 4 - 24 7.4 23.0 32.4 24.3 9.9 2.8 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 24.6% 9.6 9.3 4.6 1.0 0.1
Siena 26.1% 11.5 9.5 4.0 1.0 0.1
Quinnipiac 5.8% 0.6 2.1 2.2 0.8 0.1
Merrimack 68.5% 46.5 15.7 5.1 1.1 0.1
St. Peter's 11.8% 3.8 4.5 2.6 0.7 0.1
Iona
Fairfield
Sacred Heart
Mount St. Mary's
Manhattan
Niagara
Canisius
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 25.9% 25.9% 0.0% 15   0.4 4.3 11.7 8.7 0.9 74.1 0.0%
Siena 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 6.8 10.0 1.7 80.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.1 5.2 7.3 1.9 84.5 0.0%
Merrimack 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 4.3 8.6 2.8 83.7 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.5 4.4 90.4 0.0%
Iona 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 3.1 2.3 93.9 0.0%
Fairfield 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 1.9 96.9 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.2 1.8 98.0 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 98.8 0.0%
Manhattan 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 97.0% 1.0 3.0 97.0
2nd Round 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 25.9% 0.0% 25.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 19.8% 0.1% 19.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 15.5% 0.2% 15.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 16.3% 0.4% 16.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.7% 1.1% 9.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 6.2% 0.5% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 3.1% 0.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 2.0% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%