Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
209 St. Peter's 18.0%   16   3 - 4 0 - 1 16 - 11 12 - 8 -2.3      -2.9 248 +0.6 152 60.3 355 -2.4 203 -26.3 13
222 Merrimack 14.7%   3 - 6 1 - 0 15 - 16 12 - 8 -3.3      -6.3 338 +3.0 88 66.1 268 -2.1 199 +6.0 6
242 Marist 11.4%   5 - 2 1 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 -4.3      -4.1 282 -0.2 177 62.9 329 -0.5 179 +7.1 3
245 Quinnipiac 10.8%   3 - 5 1 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -4.4      -3.2 260 -1.3 211 75.7 37 -2.6 208 +12.9 2
254 Mount St. Mary's 8.5%   4 - 3 0 - 1 16 - 14 10 - 10 -5.1      -5.2 315 +0.1 165 69.6 169 +0.4 168 -16.5 8
257 Rider 6.8%   4 - 6 0 - 2 15 - 16 9 - 11 -5.3      -2.6 242 -2.6 260 63.4 319 -4.7 243 -21.0 11
269 Sacred Heart 6.9%   4 - 5 1 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -6.0      -2.4 236 -3.6 294 72.2 89 -5.2 252 +6.0 5
274 Iona 5.8%   2 - 8 0 - 1 13 - 18 10 - 10 -6.2      -5.3 318 -0.9 200 69.7 166 -9.2 315 -18.2 9
283 Fairfield 5.6%   4 - 4 1 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -6.4      -2.8 244 -3.6 292 66.3 255 -2.0 198 +6.9 4
302 Siena 3.9%   4 - 5 0 - 1 14 - 17 9 - 11 -7.3      -4.6 300 -2.7 264 63.2 322 -3.2 219 -19.8 10
308 Niagara 3.7%   3 - 5 1 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -7.6      -3.5 270 -4.0 306 64.0 313 -6.8 277 +4.9 7
313 Manhattan 3.6%   3 - 4 1 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 11 -8.1      -3.0 253 -5.1 325 70.8 136 -5.0 248 +15.9 1
345 Canisius 0.4%   0 - 9 0 - 1 6 - 25 5 - 15 -12.2      -5.1 313 -7.1 357 67.1 233 -19.1 362 -21.5 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
St. Peter's 4.4 21.0 15.6 12.5 10.2 8.7 7.2 6.3 5.1 4.3 3.7 2.8 1.7 0.9
Merrimack 4.0 25.2 15.9 12.7 10.4 8.7 6.9 5.5 4.5 3.5 2.9 2.1 1.3 0.4
Marist 4.7 18.1 14.0 12.1 10.3 9.1 7.9 6.8 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.0
Quinnipiac 4.9 16.6 13.2 12.2 10.2 8.7 8.0 7.3 6.4 5.5 4.6 3.8 2.5 0.9
Mount St. Mary's 6.3 8.7 9.2 9.4 9.2 9.1 8.7 8.2 7.6 7.3 7.3 6.5 5.6 3.1
Rider 7.1 4.2 6.1 7.3 7.8 9.1 9.2 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.1 8.3 6.4 3.9
Sacred Heart 6.0 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.4 8.9 8.7 8.7 8.2 7.7 6.6 5.8 4.6 2.2
Iona 6.9 5.2 7.0 7.7 8.4 8.6 9.1 9.1 8.8 8.8 8.5 7.8 6.7 4.2
Fairfield 6.6 7.3 7.9 8.3 8.7 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.4 6.2 2.8
Siena 7.8 3.6 4.8 5.8 6.0 7.3 7.9 8.6 9.0 9.6 10.2 10.3 9.9 7.1
Niagara 7.3 4.9 6.0 6.6 7.2 7.8 8.4 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.4 4.9
Manhattan 7.5 5.0 5.9 6.3 6.8 7.7 7.8 8.4 8.8 8.7 9.3 10.1 9.9 5.4
Canisius 11.3 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.4 2.0 2.8 4.0 5.5 7.8 11.7 19.1 43.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
St. Peter's 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 3.5 5.3 7.8 9.5 12.1 13.3 13.3 11.4 9.0 6.2 3.5 1.3 0.3
Merrimack 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.6 4.2 6.5 9.5 11.9 13.3 13.5 12.3 10.0 6.9 4.3 2.1 0.6 0.1
Marist 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.4 4.1 6.1 8.9 10.8 12.4 13.4 12.3 10.3 7.6 5.2 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1
Quinnipiac 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.8 6.8 9.5 11.2 12.6 13.0 12.2 9.8 7.4 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.1 7.5 9.7 11.5 12.7 12.5 11.1 9.3 6.7 4.2 2.5 0.9 0.3 0.0
Rider 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.0 4.0 6.8 9.8 11.9 14.0 13.8 12.6 9.7 6.9 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Sacred Heart 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 6.7 9.8 12.1 12.9 12.6 11.5 9.7 7.1 4.3 2.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Iona 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.2 6.7 9.1 11.3 13.2 13.2 12.1 9.9 7.4 5.1 2.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.2 8.6 10.9 12.3 12.9 12.4 10.5 8.2 5.4 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Siena 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.8 6.2 9.2 11.1 12.8 13.4 12.0 9.9 7.7 5.2 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Niagara 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.0 8.0 10.2 12.1 13.5 12.7 11.0 8.4 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 5.9 8.5 10.7 11.8 12.8 12.1 10.3 8.2 6.2 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Canisius 5 - 15 1.2 4.2 8.4 12.1 14.9 15.3 13.3 11.0 8.1 5.4 3.2 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
St. Peter's 21.0% 13.2 5.5 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 25.2% 16.6 6.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Marist 18.1% 11.5 4.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 16.6% 10.0 4.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 8.7% 4.7 2.8 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rider 4.2% 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 9.6% 5.3 2.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Iona 5.2% 2.6 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 7.3% 4.1 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Siena 3.6% 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Niagara 4.9% 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 5.0% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Canisius 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
St. Peter's 18.0% 18.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.4 6.4 82.0 0.0%
Merrimack 14.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.7 4.8 7.7 85.3 0.0%
Marist 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 5.4 88.6 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.2 6.1 89.2 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.8 4.4 91.5 0.0%
Rider 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.6 93.2 0.0%
Sacred Heart 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 1.1 5.6 93.1 0.0%
Iona 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 5.0 94.2 0.0%
Fairfield 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 3.9 94.4 0.0%
Siena 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 96.1 0.0%
Niagara 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 96.3 0.0%
Manhattan 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 3.0 96.4 0.0%
Canisius 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
St. Peter's 18.0% 2.7% 16.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 14.7% 4.3% 12.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 11.4% 2.5% 10.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 10.8% 3.1% 9.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 8.5% 1.9% 7.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 6.8% 2.5% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 6.9% 4.1% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 5.8% 3.6% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 5.6% 2.1% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 3.9% 1.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 3.7% 2.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 3.6% 2.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 83.6% 0.8 16.4 83.6
2nd Round 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0