Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
162 Merrimack 26.4%   16   19 - 9 15 - 2 -0.2      -1.7 220 +1.6 127 61.9 343 +1.7 137 +6.2 1
184 Marist 16.8%   16 - 10 11 - 7 -1.4      -5.5 312 +4.1 64 65.4 265 -2.7 212 -3.3 5
192 Siena 16.3%   18 - 10 11 - 6 -2.0      -0.4 172 -1.6 227 63.2 325 -2.1 198 -2.7 4
193 Quinnipiac 17.5%   17 - 10 11 - 6 -2.0      -3.9 275 +1.9 117 74.9 33 -0.3 164 -2.4 3
235 St. Peter's 11.2%   14 - 10 12 - 5 -4.1      -3.8 273 -0.2 177 64.5 291 -3.0 216 -1.1 2
249 Iona 4.1%   16 - 12 8 - 9 -4.9      -3.5 261 -1.3 216 71.8 97 -3.4 220 -7.8 8
266 Fairfield 3.5%   16 - 11 9 - 8 -5.8      -1.5 213 -4.3 302 67.5 215 -3.8 227 -5.9 7
285 Mount St. Mary's 2.2%   12 - 15 9 - 8 -7.1      -6.2 321 -1.0 203 69.3 156 -6.3 267 -5.8 6
290 Sacred Heart 1.5%   11 - 17 8 - 10 -7.4      -1.1 196 -6.3 336 71.6 101 -8.0 294 -8.2 10
321 Manhattan 0.3%   11 - 17 8 - 10 -10.2      -1.9 226 -8.3 358 69.2 164 -8.7 310 -8.2 9
337 Niagara 0.1%   6 - 20 4 - 13 -11.8      -6.5 336 -5.2 318 58.8 365 -13.5 346 -13.2 11
343 Canisius 0.1%   8 - 19 4 - 13 -12.4      -8.9 352 -3.5 276 62.7 331 -11.5 336 -13.6 12
356 Rider 0.0%   2 - 23 2 - 15 -14.9      -7.6 345 -7.3 351 63.8 311 -20.7 364 -17.5 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Feb 20 162 Merrimack 79 192 Siena 72   
Fri, Feb 20 249 Iona 72 235 St. Peter's 64   
Fri, Feb 20 266 Fairfield 78 290 Sacred Heart 68   
Fri, Feb 20 321 Manhattan 70 184 Marist 84   
Fri, Feb 20 285 Mount St. Mary's 76 337 Niagara 63   
Fri, Feb 20 343 Canisius 72 356 Rider 66   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Feb 22 235 St. Peter's 65 192 Siena 70 69%   
Sun, Feb 22 249 Iona 65 162 Merrimack 73 77%   
Sun, Feb 22 266 Fairfield 72 193 Quinnipiac 79 74%   
Sun, Feb 22 184 Marist 76 290 Sacred Heart 67 80%   
Sun, Feb 22 343 Canisius 62 285 Mount St. Mary's 70 78%   
Sun, Feb 22 337 Niagara 66 356 Rider 65 51%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Merrimack 1.0 100.0
Marist 3.7 13.2 30.5 26.9 28.3 1.2
Siena 2.9 49.9 23.8 17.2 8.7 0.4
Quinnipiac 2.8 50.8 30.6 10.9 6.9 0.8
St. Peter's 2.7 0.1 58.3 22.8 12.2 6.6
Iona 7.3 0.0 0.9 20.2 38.7 28.8 8.1 3.3
Fairfield 6.4 0.0 0.8 3.1 7.2 49.5 26.6 11.5 1.4 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 6.4 0.0 0.2 1.9 8.5 52.5 27.2 8.3 1.4 0.0
Sacred Heart 8.6 3.5 12.2 23.6 44.2 16.7
Manhattan 8.8 1.9 10.8 24.2 29.7 33.4
Niagara 11.2 78.5 21.4 0.2
Canisius 11.4 56.2 43.7 0.1
Rider 12.9 3.0 4.6 92.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Merrimack 17 - 3 21 - 10 1.1 10.9 38.5 49.6
Marist 13 - 7 18 - 10 6.4 36.9 56.7
Siena 13 - 7 20 - 11 1.3 17.7 46.5 34.6
Quinnipiac 13 - 7 19 - 11 1.9 15.0 40.9 42.2
St. Peter's 13 - 7 15 - 12 10.1 46.3 35.2 8.5
Iona 10 - 10 18 - 13 4.0 33.8 49.4 12.8
Fairfield 10 - 10 17 - 13 14.2 41.2 35.7 8.9
Mount St. Mary's 11 - 9 14 - 16 8.9 41.0 38.7 11.3
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 12 - 18 32.6 55.0 12.4
Manhattan 9 - 11 12 - 18 47.2 44.2 8.5
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 30.0 46.0 20.8 3.2
Canisius 5 - 15 9 - 21 48.8 38.6 11.2 1.4
Rider 3 - 17 3 - 25 42.6 48.0 9.0 0.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Merrimack 100.0% 99.9 0.1
Marist
Siena
Quinnipiac
St. Peter's 0.1% 0.1
Iona
Fairfield
Mount St. Mary's
Sacred Heart
Manhattan
Niagara
Canisius
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Merrimack 26.4% 26.4% 0.0% 16   0.1 2.9 12.7 9.6 1.1 73.6 0.0%
Marist 16.8% 16.8% 0.0% 0.7 6.1 8.2 1.8 83.2 0.0%
Siena 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.4 4.5 8.0 3.3 83.7 0.0%
Quinnipiac 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 6.5 8.4 1.8 82.5 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.8 4.6 5.8 88.8 0.0%
Iona 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 95.9 0.0%
Fairfield 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 2.2 96.5 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.2 2.0 97.8 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Manhattan 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.2 95.8
2nd Round 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Merrimack 26.4% 0.1% 26.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 16.8% 0.2% 16.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 16.3% 0.5% 16.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 17.5% 0.2% 17.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 11.2% 1.8% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 4.1% 1.1% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 3.5% 0.9% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.5% 1.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%