Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
110 Iona 36.9%   13   6 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 9 15 - 5 +4.1      -0.2 175 +4.3 63 70.4 148 +13.6 34 0.0 1
132 Monmouth 25.4%   5 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 10 14 - 6 +2.4      +1.7 120 +0.7 146 75.5 51 +11.2 54 0.0 1
199 St. Peter's 9.2%   1 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 13 11 - 9 -1.8      -4.5 296 +2.7 93 69.5 173 -2.7 215 0.0 1
224 Fairfield 7.5%   2 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 10 -2.8      -1.9 231 -0.9 208 63.8 305 +0.9 162 0.0 1
226 Niagara 7.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -3.1      -1.5 217 -1.5 231 62.6 326 -4.9 243 0.0 1
248 Marist 3.5%   2 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 11 -4.7      -3.6 279 -1.1 212 65.3 277 -6.0 261 0.0 1
252 Manhattan 3.7%   3 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 -4.9      -5.3 309 +0.4 156 66.4 247 +2.0 152 0.0 1
261 Canisius 2.8%   1 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 9 - 11 -5.3      -2.6 259 -2.7 262 74.1 69 -7.3 281 0.0 1
272 Rider 1.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -6.2      -4.2 290 -2.0 243 68.4 207 -7.0 275 0.0 1
274 Quinnipiac 2.4%   2 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 12 -6.2      -3.0 269 -3.2 277 76.7 42 -5.9 258 0.0 1
293 Siena 1.2%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -7.4      -3.3 274 -4.1 297 64.3 297 -5.5 251 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Iona 2.0 50.3 24.0 12.1 6.5 3.4 2.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1
Monmouth 2.6 33.9 27.6 15.4 9.0 5.5 3.5 2.3 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.1
St. Peter's 4.8 9.3 14.5 14.9 14.2 11.1 9.7 7.9 7.2 4.9 4.2 2.2
Fairfield 5.3 6.4 10.7 13.7 13.9 11.8 10.9 10.1 7.4 6.9 4.7 3.5
Niagara 5.5 5.5 10.3 12.8 12.4 11.9 10.2 10.5 9.4 7.1 5.8 4.2
Marist 6.5 2.4 5.8 9.2 10.1 10.4 12.2 11.8 10.6 9.5 10.4 7.7
Manhattan 6.4 3.7 5.5 8.3 10.7 11.6 11.1 12.3 9.4 9.3 9.1 8.9
Canisius 6.8 2.9 4.5 7.5 8.2 11.0 10.8 12.4 11.1 11.9 11.0 8.9
Rider 7.3 1.3 3.2 5.1 7.6 9.8 10.1 11.9 13.1 12.8 12.6 12.6
Quinnipiac 7.3 1.7 3.6 5.5 7.5 8.9 10.3 11.5 12.4 13.3 12.4 13.0
Siena 8.0 0.8 1.6 3.7 4.6 7.1 9.1 10.5 12.9 13.9 17.1 18.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 15 - 5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 2.1 4.8 7.5 9.9 13.0 14.4 15.2 13.8 10.4 5.0 1.6
Monmouth 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.6 6.8 9.7 11.8 15.5 13.2 11.7 10.4 5.9 2.9 0.9
St. Peter's 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 2.6 4.4 6.4 7.5 9.5 10.4 12.4 11.5 10.8 7.7 7.6 3.9 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.0
Fairfield 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.9 3.2 5.3 7.3 8.6 11.2 11.7 11.6 12.2 9.6 6.7 3.7 3.2 1.4 0.7 0.3
Niagara 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 3.7 5.7 8.1 10.1 10.8 12.1 12.0 10.5 8.3 6.0 4.4 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2
Marist 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.5 4.2 6.5 8.5 10.1 12.1 11.9 11.0 10.0 8.3 5.9 4.0 2.5 0.8 0.3 0.2
Manhattan 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.1 6.8 8.0 9.4 11.0 12.1 11.6 10.2 8.4 5.9 3.2 2.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Canisius 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.9 4.2 7.8 9.6 11.6 12.3 11.5 11.6 8.4 7.0 4.5 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
Rider 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 1.6 4.4 6.2 8.8 11.1 12.2 12.9 11.7 9.8 7.9 5.8 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 8 - 12 0.2 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.1 9.2 10.7 12.1 12.3 11.3 9.6 7.8 5.2 3.6 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0
Siena 7 - 13 0.3 1.5 3.1 6.2 9.5 11.4 11.8 13.7 12.0 10.0 7.5 5.4 4.1 1.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 50.3% 39.1 9.9 1.1 0.1 0.1
Monmouth 33.9% 25.3 7.3 1.2 0.1 0.1
St. Peter's 9.3% 6.1 2.3 0.8 0.1
Fairfield 6.4% 3.9 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.1
Niagara 5.5% 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Marist 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0
Manhattan 3.7% 1.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Canisius 2.9% 1.4 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1
Rider 1.3% 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Quinnipiac 1.7% 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0
Siena 0.8% 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 36.9% 35.5% 1.4% 13   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.7 0.8 3.7 12.3 12.1 5.3 1.3 0.1 63.1 2.2%
Monmouth 25.4% 25.1% 0.3% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 1.4 4.9 8.0 6.8 3.1 0.3 74.6 0.4%
St. Peter's 9.2% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.7 2.6 90.8 0.0%
Fairfield 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.9 2.2 92.5 0.0%
Niagara 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 3.0 3.1 92.8 0.0%
Marist 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.9 96.5 0.0%
Manhattan 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 1.3 96.3 0.0%
Canisius 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 97.2 0.0%
Rider 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 98.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 97.6 0.0%
Siena 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.8 98.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Iona 36.9% 1.1% 36.1% 6.2% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 25.4% 0.3% 25.3% 3.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 9.2% 0.9% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 7.5% 0.6% 7.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 7.2% 1.2% 6.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 3.5% 0.9% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 3.7% 0.6% 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 2.8% 1.1% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 1.8% 0.9% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 2.4% 0.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.3 1.7
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 95.5 0.9
2nd Round 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.6% 0.0 97.5 2.6
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0