Preseason Rankings
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
199 Iona 17.0%   16   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -2.3      -1.3 211 -1.0 200 69.7 130 0.0 1 0.0 1
215 Quinnipiac 13.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 12 - 8 -3.2      -2.1 232 -1.1 203 77.3 15 0.0 1 0.0 1
222 Siena 13.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 14 12 - 8 -3.5      -1.4 217 -2.1 244 67.4 203 0.0 1 0.0 1
237 Marist 10.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 13 11 - 9 -4.3      -6.4 342 +2.1 111 61.5 341 0.0 1 0.0 1
254 Sacred Heart 9.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -5.0      -1.0 195 -4.0 302 74.5 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
257 Merrimack 8.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 17 11 - 9 -5.1      -6.0 334 +0.9 135 62.7 321 0.0 1 0.0 1
260 Manhattan 8.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -5.3      -0.5 179 -4.7 320 68.6 163 0.0 1 0.0 1
269 Mount St. Mary's 7.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 10 - 10 -5.9      -4.3 294 -1.6 222 68.3 177 0.0 1 0.0 1
297 St. Peter's 4.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -7.5      -7.3 355 -0.1 168 61.2 345 0.0 1 0.0 1
313 Rider 3.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -8.5      -4.6 306 -3.9 299 63.2 308 0.0 1 0.0 1
319 Fairfield 2.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 8 - 12 -9.0      -5.0 313 -4.1 304 65.4 252 0.0 1 0.0 1
335 Niagara 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -10.4      -5.9 331 -4.5 314 63.3 307 0.0 1 0.0 1
346 Canisius 1.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -11.8      -6.1 338 -5.7 342 65.9 236 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Iona 4.2 23.8 15.7 12.4 10.1 8.6 7.3 5.8 5.1 3.8 3.1 2.1 1.6 0.8
Quinnipiac 4.7 17.7 14.9 12.4 10.6 9.3 8.3 6.5 5.6 4.9 3.7 2.8 2.1 1.1
Siena 4.7 17.4 14.0 12.4 10.8 9.1 8.2 7.1 6.0 4.9 3.7 2.9 2.1 1.4
Marist 5.5 13.4 11.6 10.3 10.0 9.3 8.6 8.2 6.8 6.5 5.4 4.4 3.4 2.1
Sacred Heart 5.7 11.1 11.3 10.3 10.0 9.6 8.9 8.0 7.5 6.6 5.8 4.7 3.7 2.3
Merrimack 6.1 9.6 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 8.6 8.5 8.1 7.9 6.9 5.7 4.6 2.9
Manhattan 5.9 10.1 10.2 10.1 10.3 9.7 8.8 8.4 7.9 6.8 6.1 5.0 3.8 3.0
Mount St. Mary's 6.3 8.3 8.9 9.2 9.2 9.3 8.7 8.9 8.4 7.7 6.8 6.1 5.0 3.4
St. Peter's 7.5 4.7 5.4 5.9 7.2 7.9 8.2 9.1 9.3 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.1 6.0
Rider 8.3 2.9 3.8 4.6 5.7 6.6 7.3 8.1 8.8 9.8 10.2 11.2 12.0 9.2
Fairfield 8.3 2.5 3.7 4.7 5.5 6.5 7.2 8.6 8.9 10.1 10.5 10.9 10.9 9.9
Niagara 9.2 1.6 2.3 3.1 3.8 5.0 5.7 7.1 8.3 9.6 11.0 12.7 14.3 15.5
Canisius 9.9 0.9 1.3 2.0 2.5 3.6 4.3 5.5 6.8 8.6 10.9 14.0 16.5 23.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.1 4.6 5.8 7.6 8.9 10.5 10.5 10.9 10.2 8.9 6.9 4.5 2.4 0.8
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.7 3.9 5.4 6.7 8.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 10.7 9.2 7.3 5.4 3.1 1.4 0.4
Siena 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.0 5.8 7.4 8.6 9.9 10.6 10.9 10.3 9.1 7.2 4.9 3.2 1.5 0.4
Marist 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.6 4.3 5.8 7.1 8.3 9.8 10.1 10.1 9.7 8.9 6.8 5.7 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.3
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.6 5.9 7.6 8.7 10.1 10.3 10.3 9.8 8.4 7.0 4.9 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2
Merrimack 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 3.9 5.4 7.2 8.5 9.6 10.0 9.9 9.9 8.7 7.5 5.7 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.1
Manhattan 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.3 4.7 6.3 8.0 9.3 10.2 10.1 10.4 9.6 8.1 6.2 4.6 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 3.9 5.7 7.3 8.9 9.5 10.3 10.2 9.7 8.8 7.1 5.4 3.6 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
St. Peter's 9 - 11 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.9 4.7 6.5 8.3 9.7 10.4 10.6 10.2 9.2 7.7 6.0 4.5 3.1 2.1 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Rider 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.7 6.6 8.6 9.8 10.2 10.7 9.9 8.9 7.8 6.2 4.6 3.0 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 8 - 12 0.3 1.2 2.7 4.5 6.4 8.7 9.8 10.3 11.1 10.1 9.2 7.8 5.9 4.9 3.1 2.1 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Niagara 7 - 13 0.7 2.4 4.6 6.9 8.9 10.2 10.9 11.1 10.3 9.0 7.8 5.8 4.2 2.9 2.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 1.4 3.8 7.1 8.8 11.1 11.9 11.8 10.8 8.8 7.6 5.7 4.1 2.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 23.8% 16.5 5.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 17.7% 11.9 4.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Siena 17.4% 11.5 4.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Marist 13.4% 8.9 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 11.1% 7.0 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 9.6% 6.2 2.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 10.1% 6.1 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 8.3% 5.1 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 4.7% 2.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rider 2.9% 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 2.5% 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Niagara 1.6% 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 4.2 4.7 4.3 83.0 0.0%
Quinnipiac 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 3.3 4.2 4.0 86.5 0.0%
Siena 13.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.2 4.0 4.2 87.0 0.0%
Marist 10.3% 10.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.2 3.3 89.7 0.0%
Sacred Heart 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.0 3.8 90.7 0.0%
Merrimack 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 3.0 91.6 0.0%
Manhattan 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.5 2.6 3.3 92.0 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 3.0 93.0 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.1 95.4 0.0%
Rider 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.8 96.8 0.0%
Fairfield 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 97.2 0.0%
Niagara 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 98.2 0.0%
Canisius 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 99.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Iona 17.0% 2.1% 17.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 13.5% 1.9% 13.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 13.0% 2.1% 13.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 10.3% 1.6% 10.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 9.3% 2.0% 9.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 8.4% 1.7% 8.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 8.0% 1.7% 7.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 7.0% 1.6% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 4.6% 1.2% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 3.2% 1.1% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.8% 1.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.8% 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.6% 1.0 7.4 86.1 6.5
2nd Round 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0