Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
141 Siena 23.4%   14   2 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 14 - 6 +0.3      -0.1 162 +0.5 136 67.4 229 +9.7 31 0.0 1
186 Iona 14.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 13 - 7 -1.9      -0.3 171 -1.6 209 70.5 142 +8.8 40 0.0 1
189 Marist 14.0%   0 - 1 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 -2.0      -4.1 298 +2.1 110 61.5 346 -4.1 275 0.0 1
194 Quinnipiac 12.2%   1 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 13 12 - 8 -2.4      -2.5 241 +0.1 153 77.3 26 +4.3 107 0.0 1
234 Sacred Heart 8.5%   0 - 1 0 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -4.0      -0.2 164 -3.9 318 74.5 62 -5.9 297 0.0 1
238 Manhattan 8.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -4.2      -0.3 170 -3.9 317 68.6 199 0.0 186 0.0 1
278 Merrimack 4.5%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 19 9 - 11 -6.1      -5.2 328 -0.9 185 62.7 334 -9.4 320 0.0 1
281 Mount St. Mary's 4.2%   0 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 10 - 10 -6.2      -4.4 309 -1.8 232 68.3 210 -16.4 353 0.0 1
298 St. Peter's 3.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 16 9 - 11 -7.1      -5.3 331 -1.8 231 61.2 349 -6.5 302 0.0 1
299 Fairfield 3.3%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -7.1      -3.5 276 -3.6 306 65.4 277 -6.0 300 0.0 1
327 Rider 1.8%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -8.8      -4.7 319 -4.1 322 63.2 321 -2.0 252 0.0 1
345 Niagara 1.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 13 -10.1      -5.7 338 -4.4 329 63.3 320 -5.9 296 0.0 1
352 Canisius 0.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -11.3      -6.1 347 -5.2 346 65.9 266 -1.2 246 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Siena 3.1 34.1 19.4 13.9 9.6 7.1 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.2
Iona 4.3 19.3 16.0 13.4 11.4 9.9 8.0 6.3 5.1 3.9 2.9 1.9 1.3 0.7
Marist 4.7 17.2 14.0 12.7 11.2 9.5 8.4 7.2 6.0 4.8 3.7 2.8 1.7 0.8
Quinnipiac 4.6 15.2 15.0 13.4 12.2 10.6 8.6 7.2 5.8 4.4 3.2 2.2 1.6 0.6
Sacred Heart 5.5 10.6 11.6 11.1 11.0 10.4 9.3 8.7 7.6 5.9 5.2 3.8 2.9 1.8
Manhattan 5.7 10.6 10.6 10.5 10.2 9.8 9.2 8.9 7.7 6.5 5.6 4.7 3.4 2.4
Merrimack 7.3 3.9 5.3 6.5 7.5 8.4 8.9 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.6 8.6 7.2 4.7
Mount St. Mary's 6.9 4.5 6.6 7.5 8.5 9.5 9.8 10.0 9.7 9.0 8.2 6.9 5.7 3.9
St. Peter's 7.8 2.8 4.1 5.5 6.7 7.5 8.6 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.3 10.3 8.7 6.4
Fairfield 7.7 3.1 4.4 5.5 6.7 7.8 8.8 9.3 10.1 10.4 9.9 9.3 8.3 6.5
Rider 9.0 1.3 2.1 3.1 4.0 5.1 6.4 8.0 9.1 10.5 12.6 12.9 14.0 10.8
Niagara 9.5 0.9 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 5.5 6.5 8.1 9.5 11.9 13.8 15.5 17.1
Canisius 10.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.3 3.0 3.8 5.2 6.9 8.5 10.7 14.3 18.0 24.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Siena 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1 3.5 4.8 6.9 8.9 10.7 12.5 12.8 12.5 10.0 7.6 3.9 1.4
Iona 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.9 3.0 4.7 6.2 8.2 9.8 10.8 11.3 11.5 10.4 8.5 6.1 3.6 1.7 0.5
Marist 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.8 7.1 8.5 10.1 10.9 11.0 10.5 9.1 7.2 5.3 3.2 1.4 0.4
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.3 3.3 5.0 7.3 9.0 10.4 11.7 11.7 11.2 9.6 7.2 4.8 2.6 1.2 0.2
Sacred Heart 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.2 7.2 8.9 10.2 10.9 10.9 10.1 9.2 7.2 5.2 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2
Manhattan 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 1.9 3.0 4.5 5.9 7.6 9.1 10.1 10.5 10.2 9.4 8.4 6.6 5.1 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2
Merrimack 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.7 4.3 6.1 8.3 9.7 10.5 11.0 10.6 9.8 7.8 6.6 4.8 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 4.9 7.0 8.5 10.1 11.0 11.1 10.5 9.2 7.4 5.8 4.0 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
St. Peter's 9 - 11 0.2 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.3 9.3 10.3 11.2 11.0 9.8 8.8 7.1 5.6 3.8 2.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.9 5.1 6.8 9.2 9.9 11.2 11.1 10.2 9.1 7.5 5.5 3.9 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rider 7 - 13 0.4 1.3 3.2 5.9 8.6 10.3 11.7 11.6 11.4 9.8 8.1 6.2 4.4 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 7 - 13 0.8 2.8 5.2 7.9 9.8 11.3 11.8 11.2 10.3 8.7 6.6 5.0 3.6 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Canisius 6 - 14 1.5 4.3 7.3 10.2 11.9 12.6 12.1 10.2 8.8 7.0 5.0 3.6 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Siena 34.1% 24.4 7.7 1.7 0.3 0.0
Iona 19.3% 12.8 5.0 1.3 0.2 0.0
Marist 17.2% 11.5 4.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 15.2% 9.4 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0
Sacred Heart 10.6% 6.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
Manhattan 10.6% 6.5 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
Merrimack 3.9% 2.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 4.5% 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 2.8% 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 3.1% 1.7 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Rider 1.3% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Niagara 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
Canisius 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Siena 23.4% 23.4% 0.0% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.4 6.4 4.6 1.8 76.6 0.0%
Iona 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.9 4.0 3.9 2.0 85.5 0.0%
Marist 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.3 3.4 3.9 3.2 86.0 0.0%
Quinnipiac 12.2% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 3.2 3.7 2.5 87.8 0.0%
Sacred Heart 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.5 3.1 91.5 0.0%
Manhattan 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.4 2.6 91.4 0.0%
Merrimack 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.5 95.5 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.7 95.8 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 96.8 0.0%
Fairfield 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.8 96.7 0.0%
Rider 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 98.2 0.0%
Niagara 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 98.9 0.0%
Canisius 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Siena 23.4% 0.6% 23.1% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 14.5% 0.8% 14.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 14.0% 1.4% 13.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 12.2% 1.0% 11.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 8.5% 1.5% 7.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 8.6% 1.2% 8.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 4.5% 1.6% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 4.2% 1.8% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 3.2% 0.9% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 3.3% 1.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 1.8% 0.7% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 1.1% 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.8% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 93.6% 0.9 6.4 93.6 0.0
2nd Round 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0