Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
136 Marist 31.8%   15   8 - 5 3 - 2 19 - 9 14 - 6 +1.4      -5.1 305 +6.4 32 66.8 248 -1.5 190 -3.0 6
162 Quinnipiac 22.5%   10 - 5 4 - 1 21 - 9 15 - 5 -0.3      -1.7 210 +1.4 122 76.8 32 +4.2 112 +2.3 3
181 Siena 16.3%   10 - 5 3 - 1 20 - 11 13 - 7 -1.4      -1.8 215 +0.4 147 65.8 278 -0.4 169 -2.7 5
214 Iona 9.7%   10 - 6 2 - 3 20 - 11 12 - 8 -3.0      -2.6 248 -0.4 184 77.3 27 +1.1 150 -4.9 7
244 Merrimack 6.7%   9 - 7 5 - 0 16 - 15 12 - 8 -4.7      -4.1 287 -0.5 191 62.7 337 -0.6 174 +6.2 2
252 St. Peter's 5.7%   6 - 5 4 - 0 14 - 13 12 - 8 -5.4      -5.4 315 0.0 165 64.0 315 -2.8 220 +9.3 1
279 Fairfield 2.2%   8 - 7 1 - 4 15 - 15 8 - 12 -6.6      -1.1 197 -5.5 333 68.3 213 -5.3 251 -14.5 11
285 Sacred Heart 1.9%   4 - 11 1 - 4 11 - 19 8 - 12 -7.1      -1.8 212 -5.3 330 71.2 127 -10.4 321 -14.8 12
296 Mount St. Mary's 1.4%   4 - 11 1 - 4 12 - 18 9 - 11 -7.7      -6.0 326 -1.7 225 70.4 152 -9.4 308 -10.9 9
307 Manhattan 1.5%   6 - 9 3 - 2 13 - 17 10 - 10 -8.3      -1.6 206 -6.8 348 70.8 140 -6.2 264 -1.4 4
339 Canisius 0.3%   6 - 8 2 - 2 11 - 19 7 - 13 -11.4      -7.0 339 -4.4 313 63.3 329 -5.7 254 -5.2 8
348 Rider 0.1%   0 - 12 0 - 4 5 - 23 5 - 15 -12.4      -8.4 353 -4.0 300 63.8 320 -26.3 365 -21.1 13
354 Niagara 0.1%   3 - 10 1 - 3 7 - 22 5 - 15 -13.2      -6.7 336 -6.5 343 61.5 351 -13.9 344 -12.0 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sun, Jan 4 307 Manhattan 66 244 Merrimack 73   
Sun, Jan 4 339 Canisius 82 285 Sacred Heart 78   
Sun, Jan 4 279 Fairfield 83 354 Niagara 75   
Sun, Jan 4 348 Rider 65 181 Siena 74   
Sun, Jan 4 296 Mount St. Mary's 69 162 Quinnipiac 80   
Sun, Jan 4 214 Iona 38 136 Marist 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 9 244 Merrimack 63 181 Siena 69 73%   
Fri, Jan 9 296 Mount St. Mary's 68 252 St. Peter's 67 53%   
Fri, Jan 9 136 Marist 72 285 Sacred Heart 67 70%   
Fri, Jan 9 339 Canisius 70 307 Manhattan 76 72%   
Fri, Jan 9 279 Fairfield 75 348 Rider 66 80%   
Fri, Jan 9 214 Iona 79 354 Niagara 65 89%   
Sun, Jan 11 244 Merrimack 63 252 St. Peter's 65 59%   
Sun, Jan 11 162 Quinnipiac 81 285 Sacred Heart 77 64%   
Sun, Jan 11 296 Mount St. Mary's 68 181 Siena 71 63%   
Sun, Jan 11 339 Canisius 66 214 Iona 78 85%   
Sun, Jan 11 307 Manhattan 77 354 Niagara 69 77%   
Sun, Jan 11 136 Marist 68 348 Rider 57 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Marist 2.5 36.4 25.1 16.6 10.4 6.0 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 2.3 42.3 24.7 15.1 8.8 4.9 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Siena 3.3 22.9 19.2 17.3 14.2 11.2 7.1 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1
Iona 4.3 6.6 13.9 18.0 18.3 16.4 11.9 7.2 4.0 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 4.4 11.0 12.7 13.7 15.4 15.8 13.8 8.5 5.2 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 4.7 9.2 11.3 13.3 14.6 15.1 12.8 9.6 6.7 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
Fairfield 8.6 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.2 4.6 7.8 12.5 15.6 17.3 16.7 12.5 6.5 2.3
Sacred Heart 8.6 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.3 5.0 8.6 12.4 15.2 17.1 15.9 12.6 6.6 2.7
Mount St. Mary's 8.1 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.9 7.0 11.0 14.5 16.1 15.3 12.3 9.0 5.2 2.4
Manhattan 6.8 1.0 2.6 5.1 7.8 11.7 15.7 17.3 14.2 10.9 7.3 4.1 1.8 0.5
Canisius 9.5 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.7 5.0 8.0 11.3 14.3 17.9 18.7 13.1 6.4
Rider 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.5 3.0 5.1 9.1 14.6 26.5 38.7
Niagara 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.3 6.9 11.2 17.7 29.2 26.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Marist 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.6 8.9 14.1 18.8 20.3 17.0 9.8 3.1
Quinnipiac 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.7 7.6 13.0 17.7 19.9 17.7 11.9 5.1 1.1
Siena 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.6 9.7 13.4 16.4 17.3 14.3 10.6 5.3 2.0 0.4
Iona 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.6 5.7 9.8 14.7 18.2 18.9 15.4 9.0 3.5 0.8
Merrimack 12 - 8 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.4 7.0 11.4 15.4 16.8 16.0 12.8 8.3 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 12 - 8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.8 8.8 12.0 14.8 16.1 14.6 11.2 7.5 4.1 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.2 7.2 12.6 17.3 18.2 16.4 12.1 6.8 3.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Sacred Heart 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 7.2 12.4 16.7 17.9 16.8 12.0 7.2 3.4 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.4 5.3 9.3 13.6 16.6 17.4 14.7 9.9 5.8 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.1
Manhattan 10 - 10 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.2 8.4 13.3 17.4 17.8 15.0 10.8 6.5 3.0 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Canisius 7 - 13 0.7 2.8 7.5 12.8 17.0 17.6 15.6 11.7 7.0 4.2 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Rider 5 - 15 1.1 4.7 10.5 16.5 18.2 17.4 13.7 8.9 5.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Niagara 5 - 15 2.0 7.0 13.2 18.1 18.8 16.3 11.1 7.0 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Marist 36.4% 22.1 10.9 2.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 42.3% 26.9 11.9 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
Siena 22.9% 13.0 7.2 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Iona 6.6% 2.4 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Merrimack 11.0% 5.8 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0
St. Peter's 9.2% 4.6 3.1 1.1 0.3 0.1
Fairfield 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sacred Heart 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Rider
Niagara 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Marist 31.8% 31.8% 0.0% 15   0.2 1.6 6.4 12.7 9.2 1.7 68.2 0.0%
Quinnipiac 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 0.1 1.1 5.4 9.9 5.5 0.5 77.5 0.0%
Siena 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.6 6.9 2.1 83.7 0.0%
Iona 9.7% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.7 4.7 1.7 90.3 0.0%
Merrimack 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.2 2.4 93.3 0.0%
St. Peter's 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 2.7 94.3 0.0%
Fairfield 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 97.8 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.6 98.2 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 98.7 0.0%
Manhattan 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Rider 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Marist 31.8% 0.3% 31.7% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 22.5% 0.1% 22.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 16.3% 0.4% 16.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 9.7% 0.3% 9.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Merrimack 6.7% 0.8% 6.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 5.7% 1.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.2% 0.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.9% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 1.4% 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.5% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 96.4% 1.0 3.6 96.4
2nd Round 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0