Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
172 Merrimack 23.7%   16   20 - 10 16 - 3 -0.9      -1.6 210 +0.6 156 61.4 348 +0.8 146 +3.8 1
183 Marist 18.2%   17 - 10 12 - 7 -1.6      -6.1 324 +4.4 60 65.4 264 -2.5 208 -3.1 4
201 Siena 18.2%   19 - 11 12 - 7 -2.4      -1.1 198 -1.3 212 63.4 320 -2.4 205 -3.0 3
211 Quinnipiac 11.8%   17 - 12 11 - 8 -2.9      -3.7 266 +0.8 146 74.4 39 -2.2 202 -4.6 6
238 St. Peter's 12.3%   15 - 11 13 - 6 -4.2      -3.8 269 -0.5 189 64.2 297 -3.3 221 -1.7 2
242 Iona 4.4%   17 - 13 9 - 10 -4.5      -3.2 253 -1.4 215 71.8 96 -3.7 230 -7.9 8
245 Fairfield 6.6%   18 - 11 11 - 8 -4.8      -1.0 195 -3.7 286 67.7 206 -2.8 214 -4.2 5
284 Sacred Heart 1.6%   12 - 18 9 - 11 -7.0      -1.2 202 -5.8 328 71.2 105 -7.8 288 -7.9 9
286 Mount St. Mary's 2.6%   13 - 16 10 - 9 -7.1      -6.3 329 -0.8 195 68.9 169 -6.6 271 -6.3 7
324 Manhattan 0.4%   11 - 18 8 - 11 -10.4      -2.0 222 -8.4 356 69.1 162 -8.9 307 -8.5 10
335 Niagara 0.0%   7 - 21 5 - 14 -11.6      -6.5 330 -5.2 317 58.7 365 -13.0 344 -12.5 12
343 Canisius 0.1%   9 - 20 5 - 14 -12.3      -9.0 355 -3.2 271 62.3 336 -10.7 328 -12.3 11
356 Rider 0.0%   3 - 24 3 - 16 -15.1      -8.3 349 -6.8 344 64.6 285 -18.7 358 -16.0 13


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Feb 27 343 Canisius 67 172 Merrimack 62   
Fri, Feb 27 335 Niagara 78 211 Quinnipiac 76   
Fri, Feb 27 286 Mount St. Mary's 69 284 Sacred Heart 77   
Fri, Feb 27 245 Fairfield 72 201 Siena 58   
Fri, Feb 27 242 Iona 80 356 Rider 58   
Fri, Feb 27 324 Manhattan 65 238 St. Peter's 75   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Mar 1 183 Marist 67 238 St. Peter's 61 71%   
Sun, Mar 1 245 Fairfield 75 286 Mount St. Mary's 70 70%   
Sun, Mar 1 242 Iona 80 324 Manhattan 77 61%   
Sun, Mar 1 343 Canisius 65 211 Quinnipiac 72 73%   
Sun, Mar 1 172 Merrimack 67 335 Niagara 60 77%   
Sun, Mar 1 356 Rider 61 201 Siena 77 92%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
Merrimack 1.0 100.0
Marist 2.6 70.0 2.1 27.9
Siena 2.4 65.0 30.0 5.0
Quinnipiac 4.9 1.6 23.7 55.6 19.2
St. Peter's 2.0 100.0
Iona 7.6 41.3 58.7
Fairfield 5.0 1.5 22.7 53.2 22.6
Sacred Heart 8.6 40.3 59.7
Mount St. Mary's 6.6 8.6 22.6 68.8
Manhattan 9.2 40.3 59.7
Niagara 11.2 79.0 21.0
Canisius 11.2 82.8 17.2
Rider 13.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Merrimack 17 - 3 21 - 10 24.0 76.0
Marist 13 - 7 18 - 10 30.0 70.0
Siena 13 - 7 20 - 11 7.1 92.9
Quinnipiac 12 - 8 18 - 12 27.7 72.3
St. Peter's 13 - 7 15 - 12 70.0 30.0
Iona 10 - 10 18 - 13 40.3 59.7
Fairfield 12 - 8 19 - 11 31.2 68.8
Sacred Heart 9 - 11 12 - 18 100.0
Mount St. Mary's 10 - 10 13 - 17 68.8 31.2
Manhattan 8 - 12 11 - 19 59.7 40.3
Niagara 5 - 15 7 - 22 76.0 24.0
Canisius 5 - 15 9 - 21 72.3 27.7
Rider 3 - 17 3 - 25 92.9 7.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Merrimack 100.0% 100.0
Marist
Siena
Quinnipiac
St. Peter's
Iona
Fairfield
Sacred Heart
Mount St. Mary's
Manhattan
Niagara
Canisius
Rider


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Merrimack 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 16   0.7 8.7 12.8 1.5 76.3 0.0%
Marist 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 5.8 10.2 1.8 81.8 0.0%
Siena 18.2% 18.2% 0.0% 0.1 3.5 11.8 2.8 81.8 0.0%
Quinnipiac 11.8% 11.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.9 7.1 2.8 88.2 0.0%
St. Peter's 12.3% 12.3% 0.0% 0.3 4.6 7.4 87.7 0.0%
Iona 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.8 2.6 95.6 0.0%
Fairfield 6.6% 6.6% 0.0% 0.3 3.5 2.9 93.4 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 1.6 98.4 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 97.4 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Niagara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 95.4% 1.0 4.6 95.4
2nd Round 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Merrimack 23.7% 0.0% 23.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 18.2% 0.2% 18.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 18.2% 0.3% 18.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 11.8% 0.5% 11.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 12.3% 2.6% 11.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Iona 4.4% 1.1% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 6.6% 0.7% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sacred Heart 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 2.6% 1.9% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%