Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
83 Iona 55.1%   14   2 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 16 - 4 +6.4      +4.0 71 +2.4 107 72.2 92 +1.6 155 0.0 1
150 Quinnipiac 15.6%   6 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +1.2      -1.2 206 +2.5 104 74.7 59 +7.6 76 0.0 1
191 Siena 7.2%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 -1.2      -2.3 240 +1.2 143 69.7 149 +0.5 168 0.0 1
206 St. Peter's 6.0%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 11 - 9 -1.9      -3.1 271 +1.2 142 65.3 268 -4.3 244 0.0 1
212 Niagara 5.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 10 -2.6      -2.9 265 +0.3 172 61.1 346 -0.3 179 0.0 1
225 Rider 3.5%   1 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 16 10 - 10 -3.5      -0.8 192 -2.7 257 68.0 204 -13.2 330 0.0 1
236 Fairfield 2.7%   2 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -3.8      -2.4 242 -1.4 220 62.6 332 -5.8 264 0.0 1
239 Mount St. Mary's 3.0%   2 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3.9      -2.5 247 -1.4 219 68.5 187 -2.3 218 0.0 1
265 Manhattan 1.9%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 17 8 - 12 -5.4      -3.7 289 -1.7 227 70.7 130 -10.3 314 0.0 1
293 Canisius 0.9%   1 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 13 -7.2      -3.4 281 -3.8 288 70.5 135 -7.5 287 0.0 1
310 Marist 0.3%   3 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 14 -8.7      -9.8 360 +1.1 144 66.1 253 -9.7 305 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Iona 1.7 67.9 16.4 7.5 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Quinnipiac 3.3 18.0 27.0 18.0 12.6 8.8 6.1 4.2 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3
Siena 4.6 7.6 15.7 16.2 14.6 12.5 10.1 8.5 6.1 4.6 2.7 1.3
St. Peter's 5.1 6.2 13.3 14.3 13.3 12.0 11.1 9.6 7.5 6.2 4.2 2.2
Niagara 5.4 5.5 11.0 12.0 12.6 12.1 11.0 10.8 9.0 7.7 5.3 3.1
Rider 5.9 3.5 8.3 10.6 11.2 12.3 11.6 11.2 10.5 9.0 7.3 4.6
Fairfield 6.2 2.5 6.9 9.4 10.8 12.0 11.9 12.1 11.3 10.1 7.9 5.0
Mount St. Mary's 6.3 2.6 7.0 9.1 10.6 11.5 12.0 11.7 11.7 10.1 8.3 5.5
Manhattan 7.1 1.7 4.8 6.3 7.9 9.1 10.2 11.1 12.6 12.6 12.7 11.0
Canisius 8.1 0.6 2.0 3.4 4.7 6.8 8.3 10.1 12.5 15.2 17.9 18.6
Marist 8.9 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.9 4.3 5.8 7.6 11.1 15.5 21.2 29.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Iona 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.1 6.5 9.2 12.6 14.9 16.2 15.0 10.9 4.9
Quinnipiac 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.9 10.3 12.5 13.7 13.5 11.8 8.9 5.4 2.9 0.8 0.2
Siena 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.0 7.5 10.1 11.9 12.8 12.7 11.5 9.2 6.3 4.0 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
St. Peter's 11 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.6 6.5 8.9 10.5 12.1 12.3 11.3 10.1 7.8 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Niagara 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.5 7.8 10.2 11.5 11.7 11.8 10.4 8.7 6.5 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Rider 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 4.7 7.1 8.9 11.2 12.1 12.3 11.1 9.2 7.0 5.1 3.2 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.2 7.8 10.2 11.9 12.9 12.3 10.7 8.7 6.5 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.7 8.0 10.1 11.8 12.7 12.0 10.5 8.7 6.3 4.0 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 8 - 12 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.8 6.1 8.3 10.4 11.8 11.8 11.4 9.8 8.0 6.0 4.3 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Canisius 7 - 13 0.4 1.5 3.8 6.6 9.4 11.7 13.1 12.4 11.8 9.7 7.5 5.1 3.2 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Marist 6 - 14 0.6 2.7 6.1 9.8 13.0 14.4 14.0 12.2 9.2 7.2 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Iona 67.9% 57.4 8.9 1.3 0.2 0.0
Quinnipiac 18.0% 11.5 5.3 1.0 0.2 0.0
Siena 7.6% 4.5 2.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
St. Peter's 6.2% 3.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
Niagara 5.5% 3.2 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Rider 3.5% 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Fairfield 2.5% 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0
Mount St. Mary's 2.6% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Manhattan 1.7% 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Canisius 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Marist 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Iona 55.1% 53.8% 1.3% 14   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 6.8 15.3 16.2 8.7 2.7 0.8 44.9 2.8%
Quinnipiac 15.6% 15.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.4 5.6 2.8 0.9 84.4 0.1%
Siena 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.3 1.7 92.8 0.0%
St. Peter's 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.0 1.6 94.0 0.0%
Niagara 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.8 1.3 94.8 0.0%
Rider 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 96.5 0.0%
Fairfield 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 97.3 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 97.0 0.0%
Manhattan 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 98.1 0.0%
Canisius 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 99.1 0.0%
Marist 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Iona 55.1% 1.2% 54.6% 12.9% 3.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Quinnipiac 15.6% 0.3% 15.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Siena 7.2% 1.0% 6.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Peter's 6.0% 0.9% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Niagara 5.2% 0.8% 4.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rider 3.5% 1.4% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fairfield 2.7% 1.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Mount St. Mary's 3.0% 0.8% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Manhattan 1.9% 0.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Canisius 0.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marist 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 98.6 1.4
1st Round 96.3% 1.0 3.7 95.4 0.9
2nd Round 15.6% 0.2 84.5 15.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3
Elite Eight 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Final Four 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0