Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.0 #172
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #194
Pace 63.7 #313
Improvement +0.3 #168

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #187 C- C C C- D
Defense #172 C C+ C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #230 1.15 #183 -1.3 #231
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #33 0.87 #46 +5.1 #11
Three Pointers 34% #320 0.89 #328 -5.8 #335
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #237 -2.0 #238
Freethrows 0.28 #262 73% #153 0.20 #233
Second Chance 30.6% #178 1.01 #228 0.31 #195
Turnovers 16.6% #189
Total Offense -0.8 #187

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.17 #198 -1.2 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #119 0.81 #268 -1.2 #278
Three Pointers 38% #263 0.97 #119 +2.4 #98
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #179 +0.0 #180
Freethrows 0.28 #106 73% #215 0.20 #121
Second Chance 30.4% #173 0.99 #104 0.30 #131
Turnovers 16.2% #197
Total Defense -0.2 #172

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #325 -0.1% #149
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.3% #194 0.0% #184
Possession Length 19.0 #332 17.3 #177
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #345 0.12 #44
Improvement +2.5 #59 -2.1 #306

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 19.6% 16.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 97.1%
Conference Champion 23.6% 27.1% 11.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round18.8% 19.6% 16.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 78.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 33 - 53 - 6
Quad 418 - 522 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 346 Bryant W 82 - 66 90% +10  1 - 0 +1 +8 D A+ B+ -6 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 267 @Brown W 62 - 46 57% +12  2 - 0 +13 -5 D- D+ F +18 A+ A+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 151 @St. Bonaventure L 66 - 75 33% +1  2 - 1 -5 -1 F A+ F -5 C+ F B+
 Mon, Nov 17 210 Colgate L 69 - 72 69% -0  2 - 2 -9 -2 D+ B C- -8 C- C C-
 Fri, Nov 21 308 Albany W 73 - 63 84% +8  3 - 2 -2 +6 C+ C- F+ -6 F A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 324 @Holy Cross W 73 - 69 73% +1  4 - 2 -3 +2 B F C -5 F A C+
 Fri, Nov 28 262 Longwood W 70 - 63 66% +3  5 - 2 +2 -3 B- D- D +5 B D A+
 Sat, Nov 29 220 @American W 59 - 55 48% +1  6 - 2 +3 -13 F+ F+ F +17 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 30 336 Maine W 64 - 60 83% +8  7 - 2 -7 +1 C F C -8 F D+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 349 Niagara W 83 - 54 90% +22  8 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +9 B C C+ +6 A- B- F
 Sun, Dec 7 342 Canisius W 74 - 52 90% +14  9 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +3 C F+ A+ +6 A- B- B
 Wed, Dec 17 198 @Vermont L 69 - 83 45% -12  9 - 3 -14 -5 F D- C -9 D D F+
 Mon, Dec 22 33 @Indiana L 60 - 81 6% -18  9 - 4 -4 -5 F C A +1 B- A+ A-
 Fri, Jan 2 227 @Iona L 72 - 75 49% -4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -4 -1 D+ F+ B+ -3 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 352 @Rider W 74 - 65 81% +7  10 - 5 3 - 1 -1 +10 D- A+ F -10 F A- F
 Fri, Jan 9 207 Merrimack L 59 - 63 68% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -10 +2 C- C C -13 D- C- D-
 Sun, Jan 11 285 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 50 63% +9  11 - 6 4 - 2 +13 +4 C- D- C +11 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 278 Sacred Heart L 80 - 86 79% -4  11 - 7 4 - 3 -16 +3 F C A+ -19 B+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 326 @Manhattan W 74 - 59 73% +12  12 - 7 5 - 3 +8 +4 A F D- +5 B B- D
 Mon, Jan 19 271 Fairfield W 85 - 77 78% +8  13 - 7 6 - 3 -1 +13 A+ D+ F -14 D- F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 161 Marist W 69 - 50 58% +4  14 - 7 7 - 3 +16 +11 D+ A+ A+ +8 B A+ F+
 Fri, Jan 30 349 @Niagara W 69 - 61 78%
 Sun, Feb 1 342 @Canisius W 69 - 61 77%
 Thu, Feb 5 227 Iona W 74 - 68 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 228 @St. Peter's L 66 - 67 50%
 Fri, Feb 13 178 Quinnipiac W 74 - 71 63%
 Sun, Feb 15 161 @Marist L 62 - 66 36%
 Fri, Feb 20 207 @Merrimack L 66 - 67 45%
 Sun, Feb 22 228 St. Peter's W 69 - 63 70%
 Fri, Feb 27 271 @Fairfield W 73 - 71 59%
 Sun, Mar 1 352 Rider W 74 - 59 92%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 -1 -1 C- C C +0 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.0 11.0 6.9 1.5 23.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 11.0 5.7 0.4 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 8.4 7.2 0.5 17.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 4.9 8.8 1.3 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.8 7.5 2.8 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.1 2.3 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.6 0.0 2.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.1 7.9 15.8 22.9 23.5 17.2 7.3 1.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
16-4 94.1% 6.9    5.4 1.5 0.0
15-5 64.3% 11.0    3.8 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 17.2% 4.0    0.4 1.2 1.6 0.8 0.1
13-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.6% 23.6 11.1 7.6 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.5% 33.8% 33.8% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
16-4 7.3% 29.6% 29.6% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.4 5.2
15-5 17.2% 27.3% 27.3% 14.4 0.4 2.1 2.1 0.1 12.5
14-6 23.5% 20.7% 20.7% 14.7 0.1 1.4 3.1 0.3 18.7
13-7 22.9% 16.5% 16.5% 15.0 0.0 0.7 2.4 0.6 19.1
12-8 15.8% 11.5% 11.5% 15.3 0.2 1.0 0.6 14.0
11-9 7.9% 10.4% 10.4% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 7.0
10-10 3.1% 7.4% 7.4% 15.7 0.1 0.2 2.9
9-11 0.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 14.7 81.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.0 16.8 66.3 15.8 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%