Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#275
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#246
Pace64.3#301
Improvement+4.6#3

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#276
First Shot-1.8#224
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#280
Layup/Dunks-2.6#262
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#92
Freethrows-2.5#315
Improvement+1.5#48

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#262
First Shot-2.4#261
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#187
Layups/Dunks-2.9#273
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#121
Freethrows+0.5#161
Improvement+3.1#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.5% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 15.8% 21.5% 8.2%
.500 or above in Conference 29.6% 38.4% 17.9%
Conference Champion 1.3% 2.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 18.6% 11.8% 27.7%
First Four0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
First Round1.7% 2.2% 1.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 57.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 73 - 10
Quad 49 - 912 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 39   @ St. Bonaventure L 47-75 4%     0 - 1 -14.3 -12.9 -5.1
  Nov 13, 2021 161   Delaware L 63-83 36%     0 - 2 -22.6 -11.7 -11.8
  Nov 16, 2021 121   Yale L 54-82 28%     0 - 3 -28.1 -17.3 -12.0
  Nov 19, 2021 128   @ Georgetown L 65-83 14%     0 - 4 -12.5 -2.2 -11.4
  Nov 22, 2021 131   Harvard W 72-69 30%     1 - 4 +2.3 -3.5 +5.7
  Nov 28, 2021 291   @ Bucknell L 56-65 OT 42%     1 - 5 -13.0 -18.3 +5.0
  Nov 30, 2021 249   @ Army W 83-67 33%     2 - 5 +14.3 +7.4 +6.3
  Dec 03, 2021 253   Manhattan W 65-63 57%    
  Dec 05, 2021 202   @ St. Peter's L 60-67 24%    
  Dec 11, 2021 343   @ Holy Cross W 70-66 65%    
  Dec 28, 2021 320   @ American L 68-69 50%    
  Dec 31, 2021 106   @ Iona L 60-73 11%    
  Jan 02, 2022 284   Canisius W 72-69 63%    
  Jan 07, 2022 135   @ Monmouth L 65-76 15%    
  Jan 09, 2022 237   Fairfield W 65-64 52%    
  Jan 14, 2022 255   @ Marist L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 21, 2022 253   @ Manhattan L 62-66 35%    
  Jan 28, 2022 180   Niagara L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 30, 2022 294   Quinnipiac W 72-68 64%    
  Feb 04, 2022 266   Rider W 67-64 59%    
  Feb 06, 2022 237   @ Fairfield L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 11, 2022 106   Iona L 63-70 25%    
  Feb 13, 2022 266   @ Rider L 64-67 37%    
  Feb 18, 2022 255   Marist W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 20, 2022 202   St. Peter's L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 24, 2022 294   @ Quinnipiac L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 27, 2022 135   Monmouth L 68-73 31%    
  Mar 03, 2022 180   @ Niagara L 60-68 23%    
  Mar 05, 2022 284   @ Canisius L 69-72 39%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 3.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 7.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 4.1 3.2 0.5 0.1 9.5 5th
6th 0.3 1.6 4.5 3.6 0.8 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.7 3.9 0.9 0.0 12.1 7th
8th 0.2 2.0 5.2 4.5 1.0 0.1 12.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.0 5.3 4.8 1.1 0.0 13.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.4 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.9 3.9 2.1 0.3 0.1 11.9 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.6 6.4 8.7 11.8 12.9 13.2 11.1 10.3 7.9 4.5 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 86.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 71.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 39.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1
14-6 21.9% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1
13-7 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.3% 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 16.2% 16.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 16.1% 16.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-5 1.0% 6.8% 6.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
14-6 2.0% 11.9% 11.9% 15.0 0.2 0.0 1.8
13-7 3.4% 8.9% 8.9% 15.6 0.1 0.2 3.1
12-8 4.5% 6.2% 6.2% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 4.2
11-9 7.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.9 0.0 0.4 7.5
10-10 10.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.3 10.0
9-11 11.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.0
8-12 13.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 13.1
7-13 12.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.9
6-14 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.8
5-15 8.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.7
4-16 6.4% 6.4
3-17 3.6% 3.6
2-18 1.8% 1.8
1-19 0.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.0%