Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#294
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#304
Pace69.0#156
Improvement+0.9#79

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#288
First Shot-2.8#272
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#248
Layup/Dunks-1.1#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#207
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#139
Freethrows-2.2#328
Improvement+0.4#101

Defense
Total Defense-3.3#272
First Shot-2.4#252
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#269
Layups/Dunks-2.9#292
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#225
Freethrows-0.6#238
Improvement+0.5#111
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 17.0% 33.4% 9.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.0% 0.9% 5.5%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 51 - 9
Quad 48 - 109 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 74   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 56-73 7%     0 - 1 -7.2 -10.9 +4.4
  Nov 13, 2022 307   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 74-77 43%     0 - 2 -8.3 -8.6 +0.4
  Nov 24, 2022 252   Northeastern L 67-69 OT 41%     0 - 3 -6.8 -11.3 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2022 237   Army W 72-71 38%     1 - 3 -2.9 -2.0 -0.8
  Dec 01, 2022 232   Fairfield W 56-53 48%     2 - 3 1 - 0 -3.4 -8.1 +5.2
  Dec 04, 2022 351   Monmouth L 69-76 79%     2 - 4 -22.4 -8.1 -14.3
  Dec 07, 2022 25   @ Providence L 59-99 3%     2 - 5 -24.3 -14.8 -4.5
  Dec 11, 2022 195   Bryant L 97-104 OT 39%     2 - 6 -11.1 -5.1 -4.2
  Dec 16, 2022 329   Central Connecticut St. L 67-78 71%     2 - 7 -23.7 -7.7 -16.6
  Dec 19, 2022 316   @ Marist W 80-69 44%     3 - 7 2 - 0 +5.5 +20.2 -12.9
  Dec 30, 2022 263   @ St. Peter's L 57-67 34%     3 - 8 2 - 1 -12.7 -15.0 +2.4
  Jan 01, 2023 133   Quinnipiac L 65-84 28%     3 - 9 2 - 2 -19.9 -5.3 -15.2
  Jan 06, 2023 281   Canisius L 57-64 58%     3 - 10 2 - 3 -16.1 -9.2 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2023 239   Niagara W 64-59 49%     4 - 10 3 - 3 -1.7 -2.7 +1.6
  Jan 13, 2023 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 62-57 39%     5 - 10 4 - 3 +0.9 -3.1 +4.5
  Jan 20, 2023 85   Iona L 76-84 OT 17%     5 - 11 4 - 4 -4.9 -2.9 -1.1
  Jan 22, 2023 196   @ Rider L 65-67 21%     5 - 12 4 - 5 -0.7 -3.4 +2.6
  Jan 27, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 62-68 29%     5 - 13 4 - 6 -7.3 -6.6 -1.0
  Jan 29, 2023 281   @ Canisius W 81-74 OT 37%     6 - 13 5 - 6 +3.3 +2.0 +0.9
  Feb 03, 2023 151   Siena L 67-72 32%    
  Feb 05, 2023 196   Rider L 68-71 40%    
  Feb 12, 2023 263   St. Peter's W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 17, 2023 85   @ Iona L 64-80 7%    
  Feb 19, 2023 232   @ Fairfield L 62-68 28%    
  Feb 24, 2023 316   Marist W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 26, 2023 133   @ Quinnipiac L 66-78 13%    
  Mar 02, 2023 151   @ Siena L 64-75 15%    
  Mar 04, 2023 290   Mount St. Mary's W 67-64 60%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.4 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.1 4.1 10.2 6.0 1.0 0.0 21.3 6th
7th 0.3 6.1 16.6 9.8 1.5 0.1 34.3 7th
8th 0.0 2.5 10.9 6.4 0.7 0.0 20.5 8th
9th 0.3 4.6 3.8 0.4 9.1 9th
10th 0.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 3.4 10th
11th 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 1.9 9.8 21.3 27.5 22.5 11.8 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 66.7% 0.0    0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.1
12-8 1.0% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.0
11-9 4.1% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
10-10 11.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 11.7
9-11 22.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.4
8-12 27.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 27.5
7-13 21.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 21.3
6-14 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.9%