Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.2#106
Expected Predictive Rating+11.9#49
Pace70.6#142
Improvement-0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#151
First Shot-1.0#201
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#82
Layup/Dunks+2.3#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#318
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#297
Freethrows+3.7#14
Improvement+0.2#158

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#75
First Shot+2.7#96
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#120
Layups/Dunks-6.8#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#106
3 Pt Jumpshots+11.4#1
Freethrows-3.2#325
Improvement-0.2#205
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.8% 39.4% 29.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.1% 2.7% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.4 12.2 12.8
.500 or above 98.9% 99.4% 97.7%
.500 or above in Conference 97.6% 98.5% 95.1%
Conference Champion 52.1% 57.6% 37.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.0% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round36.3% 38.7% 29.8%
Second Round6.7% 7.5% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.7% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 72.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 21 - 12 - 3
Quad 37 - 38 - 7
Quad 416 - 224 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 172   Appalachian St. W 65-53 76%     1 - 0 +8.7 -3.7 +13.3
  Nov 13, 2021 131   Harvard W 90-87 OT 68%     2 - 0 +2.3 -0.4 +2.2
  Nov 16, 2021 133   Hofstra W 82-74 68%     3 - 0 +7.3 +1.9 +5.0
  Nov 19, 2021 171   Liberty W 54-50 67%     4 - 0 +3.7 -9.7 +14.1
  Nov 20, 2021 308   North Alabama W 81-65 87%     5 - 0 +7.8 +0.3 +6.4
  Nov 25, 2021 13   Alabama W 72-68 15%     6 - 0 +19.5 +1.3 +18.0
  Nov 26, 2021 68   Belmont L 65-72 38%     6 - 1 +0.3 -6.9 +7.3
  Nov 28, 2021 9   Kansas L 83-96 12%     6 - 2 +4.0 +12.5 -7.9
  Dec 01, 2021 255   @ Marist W 69-63 73%    
  Dec 03, 2021 266   Rider W 74-61 90%    
  Dec 12, 2021 121   Yale W 71-70 55%    
  Dec 18, 2021 28   Seton Hall L 65-74 21%    
  Dec 21, 2021 161   Delaware W 74-70 63%    
  Dec 31, 2021 275   Siena W 73-60 89%    
  Jan 02, 2022 237   @ Fairfield W 69-64 68%    
  Jan 07, 2022 202   @ St. Peter's W 68-65 61%    
  Jan 09, 2022 135   @ Monmouth L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 14, 2022 253   Manhattan W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 16, 2022 180   Niagara W 70-62 77%    
  Jan 21, 2022 255   Marist W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 23, 2022 294   @ Quinnipiac W 77-68 77%    
  Jan 30, 2022 202   St. Peter's W 71-62 79%    
  Feb 04, 2022 284   @ Canisius W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 06, 2022 180   @ Niagara W 67-65 57%    
  Feb 11, 2022 275   @ Siena W 70-63 75%    
  Feb 13, 2022 135   Monmouth W 75-70 68%    
  Feb 20, 2022 237   Fairfield W 72-61 83%    
  Feb 25, 2022 284   Canisius W 80-66 89%    
  Feb 27, 2022 266   @ Rider W 71-64 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 253   @ Manhattan W 69-63 71%    
  Mar 05, 2022 294   Quinnipiac W 80-65 90%    
Projected Record 23 - 8 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.9 6.5 10.5 13.6 10.2 6.3 1.6 52.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.2 6.3 7.5 3.8 1.3 0.2 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.3 3.1 1.1 0.2 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.5 1.5 0.1 0.1 6.4 4th
5th 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.6 3.5 6.7 9.5 12.5 15.2 14.5 14.9 10.3 6.3 1.6 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.6    1.6
19-1 100.0% 6.3    6.3 0.0
18-2 98.3% 10.2    9.6 0.5
17-3 91.2% 13.6    11.0 2.5 0.0
16-4 72.4% 10.5    7.4 2.6 0.4
15-5 43.1% 6.5    3.1 2.8 0.6 0.0
14-6 23.3% 2.9    0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1
13-7 4.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 52.1% 52.1 39.9 10.0 1.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.6% 80.4% 61.6% 18.8% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 49.0%
19-1 6.3% 66.4% 56.6% 9.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.4 1.7 0.2 2.1 22.5%
18-2 10.3% 54.9% 51.5% 3.4% 11.8 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.8 1.1 0.0 4.7 7.1%
17-3 14.9% 46.8% 46.3% 0.6% 12.3 0.0 0.6 3.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 7.9 1.1%
16-4 14.5% 39.1% 39.1% 12.6 0.2 2.4 2.6 0.5 8.8
15-5 15.2% 32.5% 32.5% 12.9 0.0 1.3 2.7 0.8 0.1 10.2
14-6 12.5% 28.4% 28.4% 13.2 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.1 0.1 9.0
13-7 9.5% 24.6% 24.6% 13.6 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.2 7.2
12-8 6.7% 17.4% 17.4% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 5.5
11-9 3.5% 18.0% 18.0% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 2.9
10-10 2.6% 10.9% 10.9% 14.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.3
9-11 1.3% 7.3% 7.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-12 0.7% 0.7
7-13 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 31.8% 31.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.8% 35.5% 1.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 1.1 3.7 12.8 11.9 4.8 1.1 0.1 63.2 2.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 5.1 12.3 25.9 12.3 37.0 12.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 8.0 32.3 32.3 35.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 62.5% 8.5 31.3 31.3