Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.4#83
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#155
Pace72.2#92
Improvement-0.3#251

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#71
First Shot+1.8#117
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#53
Layup/Dunks+2.4#97
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#180
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement-0.1#180

Defense
Total Defense+2.4#107
First Shot-3.7#287
After Offensive Rebounds+6.1#2
Layups/Dunks-1.4#248
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#149
Freethrows-3.8#343
Improvement-0.2#272
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.1% 57.1% 41.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.8% 3.2% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 13.3
.500 or above 96.1% 97.4% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 98.4% 99.0% 94.2%
Conference Champion 67.9% 71.8% 41.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four1.2% 1.2% 1.5%
First Round54.6% 56.6% 40.7%
Second Round12.9% 13.8% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.8% 4.1% 1.7%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.2%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 87.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 36 - 47 - 7
Quad 413 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 159   Penn W 78-50 80%     1 - 0 +25.6 +1.2 +24.3
  Nov 11, 2022 131   @ Hofstra L 78-83 53%     1 - 1 +0.6 +8.8 -8.3
  Nov 18, 2022 196   Vermont W 71-50 78%     2 - 1 +19.4 +4.5 +17.0
  Nov 26, 2022 103   Santa Clara L 76-86 57%     2 - 2 -5.3 -0.3 -4.2
  Dec 02, 2022 212   Niagara W 73-61 87%    
  Dec 04, 2022 293   Canisius W 82-65 94%    
  Dec 06, 2022 46   Saint Louis L 77-78 48%    
  Dec 11, 2022 108   St. Bonaventure W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 13, 2022 145   Princeton W 75-70 67%    
  Dec 18, 2022 57   @ New Mexico L 76-82 30%    
  Dec 22, 2022 155   SMU W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 01, 2023 206   St. Peter's W 74-63 84%    
  Jan 06, 2023 310   @ Marist W 72-60 86%    
  Jan 08, 2023 150   @ Quinnipiac W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 13, 2023 236   Fairfield W 75-62 88%    
  Jan 15, 2023 225   Rider W 80-67 87%    
  Jan 20, 2023 265   @ Manhattan W 77-68 78%    
  Jan 27, 2023 191   @ Siena W 74-69 66%    
  Jan 29, 2023 150   Quinnipiac W 78-70 77%    
  Feb 03, 2023 239   Mount St. Mary's W 78-65 88%    
  Feb 05, 2023 236   @ Fairfield W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 10, 2023 293   @ Canisius W 79-68 82%    
  Feb 12, 2023 212   @ Niagara W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 17, 2023 265   Manhattan W 80-65 90%    
  Feb 19, 2023 206   @ St. Peter's W 71-66 68%    
  Feb 24, 2023 239   @ Mount St. Mary's W 75-68 73%    
  Feb 26, 2023 191   Siena W 77-66 82%    
  Mar 02, 2023 310   Marist W 75-57 94%    
  Mar 04, 2023 225   @ Rider W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.4 7.0 12.0 15.2 15.0 10.9 4.9 67.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.8 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.1 16.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 1.9 0.7 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.1 0.0 3.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.7 4.1 6.5 9.2 12.6 14.9 16.2 15.0 10.9 4.9 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.9    4.9
19-1 100.0% 10.9    10.9 0.1
18-2 99.3% 15.0    14.5 0.5
17-3 93.5% 15.2    13.5 1.7 0.0
16-4 80.3% 12.0    9.0 2.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 56.1% 7.0    3.8 2.7 0.5 0.0
14-6 25.8% 2.4    0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1
13-7 7.8% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 67.9% 67.9 57.4 8.9 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.9% 90.7% 82.2% 8.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.5 47.6%
19-1 10.9% 80.3% 75.9% 4.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.8 3.0 1.2 0.1 2.2 18.1%
18-2 15.0% 70.8% 68.7% 2.1% 12.1 0.1 0.3 2.1 4.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 4.4 6.7%
17-3 16.2% 62.4% 62.0% 0.4% 12.6 0.0 0.7 3.9 4.2 1.2 0.1 6.1 1.0%
16-4 14.9% 53.5% 53.4% 0.1% 13.0 0.2 2.0 3.7 1.9 0.2 6.9 0.2%
15-5 12.6% 44.9% 44.9% 13.3 0.0 0.7 2.5 2.1 0.3 0.0 6.9
14-6 9.2% 37.5% 37.5% 13.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.6 0.6 0.0 5.7
13-7 6.5% 33.3% 33.3% 14.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.1 4.3
12-8 4.1% 25.2% 25.2% 14.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 3.1
11-9 2.7% 17.5% 17.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 2.2
10-10 1.4% 13.3% 13.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 1.2
9-11 0.8% 12.2% 12.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7
8-12 0.5% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 0.2% 9.4% 9.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 55.1% 53.8% 1.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 6.8 15.3 16.2 8.7 2.7 0.8 44.9 2.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 4.7 2.4 2.8 15.0 24.4 24.4 22.2 5.1 2.6 0.4 0.4 0.4