Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+21.9#4
Expected Predictive Rating+24.7#7
Pace69.8#173
Improvement-2.3#315

Offense
Total Offense+10.8#11
First Shot+6.4#36
After Offensive Rebound+4.4#8
Layup/Dunks+4.5#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#362
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#37
Freethrows+1.3#107
Improvement-0.8#235

Defense
Total Defense+11.1#5
First Shot+9.3#8
After Offensive Rebounds+1.7#53
Layups/Dunks+3.8#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
Freethrows+3.9#8
Improvement-1.5#297
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.7% 7.8% 2.6%
#1 Seed 34.6% 34.9% 15.6%
Top 2 Seed 68.6% 69.0% 42.7%
Top 4 Seed 94.6% 94.8% 84.4%
Top 6 Seed 99.3% 99.3% 96.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Average Seed 2.2 2.2 3.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 97.6%
Conference Champion 60.8% 61.2% 36.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Second Round97.1% 97.2% 93.5%
Sweet Sixteen74.4% 74.5% 64.2%
Elite Eight47.4% 47.6% 36.4%
Final Four26.8% 27.0% 18.7%
Championship Game14.3% 14.4% 8.5%
National Champion7.2% 7.2% 3.9%

Next Game: Georgia Tech (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a6 - 36 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 213 - 5
Quad 26 - 119 - 5
Quad 33 - 022 - 5
Quad 46 - 028 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 41 Texas W 75-60 82%     1 - 0 +27.2 +10.1 +17.9
  Sat, Nov 8 299 Western Carolina W 95-54 99%     2 - 0 +30.5 +9.7 +17.3
  Tue, Nov 11 331 @Army W 114-59 99%     3 - 0 +47.7 +27.4 +15.3
  Fri, Nov 14 201 Indiana St. W 100-62 99%     4 - 0 +32.5 +17.4 +11.9
  Tue, Nov 18 17 Kansas W 78-66 67%     5 - 0 +29.4 +20.8 +9.3
  Fri, Nov 21 352 Niagara W 100-42 99.7%    6 - 0 +41.8 +28.7 +17.8
  Sun, Nov 23 265 Howard W 93-56 99%     7 - 0 +28.3 +17.3 +10.7
  Thu, Nov 27 23 Arkansas W 80-71 74%     8 - 0 +24.2 +12.7 +11.6
  Tue, Dec 2 12 Florida W 67-66 75%     9 - 0 +16.0 +7.2 +8.8
  Sat, Dec 6 16 @Michigan St. W 66-60 56%     10 - 0 +26.4 +11.2 +15.7
  Tue, Dec 16 144 Lipscomb W 97-73 98%     11 - 0 +22.2 +9.8 +8.7
  Sat, Dec 20 24 Texas Tech L 81-82 74%     11 - 1 +14.2 +12.6 +1.6
  Wed, Dec 31 129 Georgia Tech W 86-63 98%    
  Sat, Jan 3 113 @Florida St. W 87-72 93%    
  Tue, Jan 6 13 @Louisville W 80-79 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 42 SMU W 84-71 88%    
  Wed, Jan 14 65 @California W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Jan 17 81 @Stanford W 82-70 87%    
  Sat, Jan 24 61 Wake Forest W 84-68 93%    
  Mon, Jan 26 13 Louisville W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Jan 31 74 @Virginia Tech W 81-70 85%    
  Tue, Feb 3 156 Boston College W 82-57 99%    
  Sat, Feb 7 21 @North Carolina W 76-73 60%    
  Tue, Feb 10 84 @Pittsburgh W 77-65 87%    
  Sat, Feb 14 40 Clemson W 76-63 88%    
  Mon, Feb 16 75 Syracuse W 83-66 94%    
  Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 76-81 33%    
  Tue, Feb 24 64 @Notre Dame W 76-66 83%    
  Sat, Feb 28 26 Virginia W 80-70 81%    
  Mon, Mar 2 28 @North Carolina St. W 80-76 65%    
  Sat, Mar 7 21 North Carolina W 79-70 79%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 5.3 15.0 20.0 14.8 5.3 60.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.9 5.8 1.2 0.1 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 5.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.9 5th
6th 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.9 10.5 16.4 21.1 21.1 14.8 5.3 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 5.3    5.3 0.0
17-1 99.7% 14.8    14.2 0.6 0.0
16-2 94.4% 20.0    15.9 4.0 0.1
15-3 70.8% 15.0    7.7 6.0 1.3 0.1
14-4 32.1% 5.3    1.2 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 5.4% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 60.8% 60.8 44.2 12.8 3.0 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 5.3% 100.0% 61.0% 39.0% 1.2 4.3 1.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 14.8% 100.0% 54.4% 45.6% 1.3 10.1 4.4 0.3 100.0%
16-2 21.1% 100.0% 49.8% 50.2% 1.5 11.1 8.7 1.4 0.1 100.0%
15-3 21.1% 100.0% 43.1% 56.9% 1.9 6.5 10.2 4.0 0.4 0.0 100.0%
14-4 16.4% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 2.4 2.2 6.7 5.7 1.6 0.1 100.0%
13-5 10.5% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 3.0 0.4 2.5 4.4 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 5.9% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 3.8 0.0 0.5 1.8 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.0% 100.0% 16.8% 83.2% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.3% 99.7% 13.1% 86.6% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.7%
9-9 0.5% 100.0% 8.1% 91.9% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.2% 98.0% 4.1% 93.9% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 42.3% 57.7% 2.2 34.6 34.0 18.2 7.8 3.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.5% 100.0% 1.1 89.4 10.3 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.2 79.8 20.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 74.2 25.8