Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.6 #3
Expected Predictive Rating +29.5 #3
Pace 66.5 #241
Improvement -0.7 #220

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #6 A A+ C+ B+ A
Defense #4 A- A+ B+ A B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #23 1.37 #13 +9.0 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #362 1.06 #2 -4.1 #349
Three Pointers 47% #50 1.06 #109 +4.3 #46
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #8 +9.2 #9
Freethrows 0.37 #26 73% #170 0.27 #31
Second Chance 40.1% #7 1.19 #24 0.48 #4
Turnovers 15.9% #112
Total Offense +11.8 #6

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #329 0.96 #10 +7.1 #14
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #71 0.67 #45 -0.4 #214
Three Pointers 44% #92 0.92 #58 +0.7 #153
1st FG Attempt 0.87 #10 +7.4 #10
Freethrows 0.21 #5 70% #82 0.15 #6
Second Chance 23.1% #8 0.75 #3 0.17 #3
Turnovers 20.6% #24
Total Defense +11.8 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.5% #4 -1.8% #45
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 12.9% #20 -12.9% #10
Possession Length 15.6 #38 19.5 #365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #66 0.13 #45
Improvement +0.8 #137 -1.5 #276

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 21.5% 24.0% 15.8%
#1 Seed 71.0% 75.2% 61.6%
Top 2 Seed 98.2% 99.0% 96.3%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 94.4% 97.2% 87.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.7% 99.7% 99.5%
Sweet Sixteen81.2% 81.9% 79.5%
Elite Eight57.5% 58.9% 54.2%
Final Four35.9% 37.8% 31.6%
Championship Game21.0% 22.4% 17.9%
National Champion11.8% 12.7% 9.6%

Next Game: North Carolina (Away) - 69.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 28 - 2
Quad 1b7 - 115 - 3
Quad 27 - 021 - 3
Quad 33 - 024 - 3
Quad 46 - 030 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 30 Texas W 75 - 60 80% +5  1 - 0 +30 +9 B C C+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 278 Western Carolina W 95 - 54 99% +23  2 - 0 +31 +7 D+ A+ B +21 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 339 @Army W 114 - 59 99% +23  3 - 0 +47 +26 A+ A+ B- +16 A B+ A
 Fri, Nov 14 192 Indiana St. W 100 - 62 99% +19  4 - 0 +33 +17 A- A+ C- +13 A A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 11 Kansas W 78 - 66 68% +3  5 - 0 +31 +20 A+ A+ B+ +11 A+ B- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 342 Niagara W 100 - 42 100% +30  6 - 0 +43 +29 A+ A+ B- +19 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 254 Howard W 93 - 56 99% +29  7 - 0 +29 +19 A+ B A- +10 A+ A+ F+
 Thu, Nov 27 24 Arkansas W 80 - 71 75% +1  8 - 0 +25 +12 C+ A+ C +13 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 7 Florida W 67 - 66 68% +5  9 - 0 +20 +9 A B+ C- +11 A+ A A-
 Sat, Dec 6 10 @Michigan St. W 66 - 60 55% +0  10 - 0 +28 +12 B- B A+ +16 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 186 Lipscomb W 97 - 73 99% +5  11 - 0 +19 +7 B- A+ F +9 B A+ B
 Sat, Dec 20 19 Texas Tech L 81 - 82 72% +4  11 - 1 +17 +15 A+ C+ B- +2 D+ A- C
 Wed, Dec 31 113 Georgia Tech W 85 - 79 97% +0  12 - 1 1 - 0 +6 +12 A- B- C -6 F A+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 100 @Florida St. W 91 - 87 92% +0  13 - 1 2 - 0 +12 +22 A+ A C- -10 F F A-
 Tue, Jan 6 16 @Louisville W 84 - 73 61% -2  14 - 1 3 - 0 +32 +15 A+ F+ B +16 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 39 SMU W 82 - 75 89% +4  15 - 1 4 - 0 +18 +12 A+ C C +6 D A A+
 Wed, Jan 14 65 @California W 71 - 56 87% +3  16 - 1 5 - 0 +27 +10 C+ A+ B- +18 A+ A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 82 @Stanford W 80 - 50 90% +15  17 - 1 6 - 0 +40 +21 A- A+ A- +22 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 75 Wake Forest W 90 - 69 95% +9  18 - 1 7 - 0 +26 +27 A A+ A+ +1 C A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 26 16 Louisville W 83 - 52 80% +12  19 - 1 8 - 0 +46 +23 A+ A+ C +25 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 58 @Virginia Tech W 72 - 58 85% +9  20 - 1 9 - 0 +26 +21 A+ A+ A +8 C A+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 125 Boston College W 67 - 49 98% +14  21 - 1 10 - 0 +17 +7 A- C C+ +12 B A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 7 29 @North Carolina W 79 - 74 69%
 Tue, Feb 10 94 @Pittsburgh W 77 - 62 92%
 Sat, Feb 14 37 Clemson W 74 - 61 88%
 Mon, Feb 16 69 Syracuse W 83 - 65 96%
 Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 76 - 78 43%
 Tue, Feb 24 81 @Notre Dame W 77 - 63 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 22 Virginia W 77 - 67 83%
 Mon, Mar 2 23 @North Carolina St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Sat, Mar 7 29 North Carolina W 82 - 71 86%
Totals 28 - 3 17 - 1 +24 +12 A A+ C+ +12 A- A+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 8.1 24.7 36.1 24.8 94.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.3 4.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.8 10.7 25.0 36.1 24.8 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 24.8    24.8
17-1 100.0% 36.1    35.9 0.2
16-2 98.9% 24.7    20.6 4.0 0.2
15-3 76.0% 8.1    3.4 3.5 1.2 0.1
14-4 23.3% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1
13-5 3.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 94.4% 94.4 84.8 7.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 24.8% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.1 21.2 3.6 0.0 100.0%
17-1 36.1% 100.0% 52.4% 47.6% 1.2 27.7 8.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 25.0% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.4 16.1 8.4 0.5 100.0%
15-3 10.7% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.6 5.0 5.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.8% 100.0% 38.5% 61.5% 1.8 0.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.6% 100.0% 41.4% 58.6% 2.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 100.0%
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 51.6% 48.4% 1.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.7% 100.0% 1.2 84.4 15.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.9% 100.0% 1.1 85.1 14.9