Duke
Atlantic Coast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.2#24
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#29
Pace66.1#241
Improvement-1.2#308

Offense
Total Offense+6.8#31
First Shot+4.0#65
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#23
Layup/Dunks+3.2#56
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#227
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#220
Freethrows+2.2#39
Improvement-0.1#218

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#31
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#58
Layups/Dunks+0.5#159
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#74
Freethrows+1.7#60
Improvement-1.0#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.4% 2.2% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 10.7% 15.0% 3.6%
Top 6 Seed 34.2% 43.5% 19.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.1% 94.5% 85.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.5% 93.5% 83.1%
Average Seed 7.2 6.7 8.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.8% 97.2%
Conference Champion 4.6% 6.7% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.9% 3.1% 8.0%
First Round89.0% 93.2% 82.0%
Second Round55.2% 60.5% 46.6%
Sweet Sixteen23.6% 26.9% 18.0%
Elite Eight10.3% 11.9% 7.8%
Final Four4.4% 5.2% 3.1%
Championship Game1.8% 2.1% 1.2%
National Champion0.7% 0.8% 0.5%

Next Game: North Carolina (Home) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 7
Quad 25 - 29 - 9
Quad 33 - 013 - 9
Quad 49 - 022 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 197   Jacksonville W 71-44 94%     1 - 0 +22.9 +8.8 +18.7
  Nov 11, 2022 306   South Carolina Upstate W 84-38 98%     2 - 0 +35.3 +4.8 +29.1
  Nov 15, 2022 7   Kansas L 64-69 37%     2 - 1 +11.6 -2.6 +14.4
  Nov 18, 2022 206   Delaware W 92-58 94%     3 - 1 +29.5 +14.6 +14.1
  Nov 21, 2022 253   Bellarmine W 74-57 96%     4 - 1 +9.5 +12.5 +0.7
  Nov 24, 2022 185   Oregon St. W 54-51 90%     5 - 1 +2.1 -3.2 +6.2
  Nov 25, 2022 19   Xavier W 71-64 48%     6 - 1 +20.9 +6.2 +15.1
  Nov 27, 2022 4   Purdue L 56-75 32%     6 - 2 -0.9 -5.0 +2.7
  Nov 30, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 81-72 63%     7 - 2 +18.9 +10.8 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2022 144   Boston College W 75-59 90%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +14.8 +12.8 +3.9
  Dec 06, 2022 30   Iowa W 74-62 53%     9 - 2 +24.5 +5.3 +19.6
  Dec 10, 2022 292   Maryland Eastern Shore W 82-55 97%     10 - 2 +17.3 +7.2 +9.9
  Dec 20, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 70-81 59%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +0.0 -1.9 +2.1
  Dec 31, 2022 140   Florida St. W 86-67 90%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +17.9 +14.8 +3.9
  Jan 04, 2023 37   @ North Carolina St. L 60-84 46%     11 - 4 2 - 2 -9.8 -7.9 -1.5
  Jan 07, 2023 144   @ Boston College W 65-64 80%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +5.3 +1.6 +3.7
  Jan 11, 2023 64   Pittsburgh W 77-69 76%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +13.7 +5.6 +8.0
  Jan 14, 2023 60   @ Clemson L 64-72 56%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +3.6 +0.6 +2.6
  Jan 21, 2023 34   Miami (FL) W 68-66 65%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +11.4 +3.8 +7.8
  Jan 23, 2023 49   @ Virginia Tech L 75-78 52%     14 - 6 5 - 4 +9.7 +14.9 -5.4
  Jan 28, 2023 172   @ Georgia Tech W 86-43 84%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +45.7 +24.2 +25.6
  Jan 31, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 75-73 77%     16 - 6 7 - 4 +7.5 +2.1 +5.4
  Feb 04, 2023 26   North Carolina W 74-71 62%    
  Feb 06, 2023 34   @ Miami (FL) L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 11, 2023 16   @ Virginia L 61-65 36%    
  Feb 14, 2023 127   Notre Dame W 77-63 90%    
  Feb 18, 2023 75   @ Syracuse W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 20, 2023 248   Louisville W 78-58 97%    
  Feb 25, 2023 49   Virginia Tech W 72-66 72%    
  Feb 28, 2023 37   North Carolina St. W 75-71 67%    
  Mar 04, 2023 26   @ North Carolina L 71-73 40%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.8 1.3 4.6 1st
2nd 0.3 5.1 4.3 0.3 10.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.8 8.9 1.2 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 1.0 10.5 4.4 0.1 16.0 4th
5th 0.1 6.1 9.7 0.4 16.5 5th
6th 0.0 2.4 11.3 2.4 0.0 16.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 7.6 5.2 0.1 13.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.4 3.3 0.2 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.3 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.0 13.7 23.8 27.0 19.4 8.4 1.6 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 82.3% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.0% 2.8    0.4 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.9% 0.6    0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 1.0 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.6% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 2.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.4% 100.0% 21.0% 79.0% 4.1 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.4 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
14-6 19.4% 99.5% 18.4% 81.2% 5.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 6.4 3.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4%
13-7 27.0% 97.7% 15.5% 82.1% 7.1 0.0 0.3 2.0 5.8 8.4 6.3 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.6 97.2%
12-8 23.8% 91.2% 14.2% 77.0% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.0 6.3 6.6 4.2 0.7 2.1 89.8%
11-9 13.7% 77.7% 11.7% 66.0% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 4.5 1.8 0.0 3.0 74.8%
10-10 5.0% 57.3% 10.9% 46.3% 10.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.2 0.0 2.1 52.0%
9-11 1.0% 24.3% 9.2% 15.1% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.8 16.6%
8-12 0.1% 11.5% 11.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.1% 15.5% 75.6% 7.2 0.3 1.1 2.8 6.4 9.9 13.6 14.9 14.6 12.6 10.7 3.9 0.1 8.9 89.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 2.2 18.4 45.4 29.6 6.4 0.3