Duke
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.7 3
Expected Predictive Rating +26.9 2
Pace 65.9 254
Improvement -1.8 255

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 13 A A+ C+ B A
Defense A 3 A A+ B+ A B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 25 A- 68% 14 +8.6 6
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 360 A 50% 7 -4.0 346
Three Pointers 47% 53 B- 36% 104 +4.5 42
Shot Selection/Accuracy A +2.1 6 A- +6.5 18
1st FG Attempt A 1.20 8
Second Chance A 39.7% 8 A- 1.20 21 A+ 0.48 5
Turnovers C+ 15.9% 117
Freethrows B 0.35 53 C 72% 179 B 0.25 68
Total Offense A +11.2 13

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% 338 A 48% 11 -7.6 9
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 53 B 34% 59 +0.9 262
Three Pointers 44% 91 B+ 30% 35 -1.1 132
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 30 A -6.7 9
1st FG Attempt A 0.86 9
Second Chance A 22.3% 4 A+ 0.74 3 A+ 0.17 3
Turnovers B+ 20.1% 31
Freethrows A 0.20 4 B- 70% 77 A 0.14 5
Total Defense A +12.5 3

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 40 19.6 365
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 76 0.12 39
Improvement -1.0 #239 -0.9 #249

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 20% 21% 12%
#1 Seed 72% 72% 57%
Top 2 Seed 98% 99% 94%
Top 4 Seed 100% 100% 100%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 1.3 1.3 1.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 96% 96% 85%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round100% 100% 100%
Sweet Sixteen81% 81% 78%
Elite Eight57% 57% 50%
Final Four35% 36% 28%
Championship Game20% 20% 15%
National Champion11% 11% 8%

Next Game: Syracuse (Home) - 95.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 015 - 4
Quad 27 - 021 - 4
Quad 32 - 023 - 4
Quad 47 - 030 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 27 Texas W 75 - 60 78% +5  75% 1 - 0 A+ +30 B +7 B C C A+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 261 Western Carolina W 95 - 54 99% +23  94% 2 - 0 A+ +32 B- +5 D+ A+ B A+ +24 A+ A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 11 342 @Army W 114 - 59 99% +23  97% 3 - 0 A+ +46 A+ +23 A+ A+ B- A+ +18 A A- A-
 Fri, Nov 14 200 Indiana St. W 100 - 62 99% +19  83% 4 - 0 A+ +33 A +13 A- A+ C- A+ +16 A A+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 16 Kansas W 78 - 66 69% +3  65% 5 - 0 A+ +31 A+ +18 A+ A+ B+ A+ +13 A+ B- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 332 Niagara W 100 - 42 100% +30  99% 6 - 0 A+ +44 A+ +26 A+ A+ B- A+ +22 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 23 226 Howard W 93 - 56 99% +29  99% 7 - 0 A+ +30 A+ +17 A+ B+ A- A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Thu, Nov 27 17 Arkansas W 80 - 71 70% +1  42% 8 - 0 A+ +27 A- +11 B- A+ C+ A+ +17 A+ A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 4 Florida W 67 - 66 63% +5  87% 9 - 0 A +21 B +7 A B+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A- A
 Sat, Dec 6 15 @Michigan St. W 66 - 60 57% +0  48% 10 - 0 A+ +28 B+ +9 B- B A A+ +19 A+ A+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 194 Lipscomb W 97 - 73 99% +5  63% 11 - 0 A +19 B- +5 B- A+ F A +11 B A+ B+
 Sat, Dec 20 13 Texas Tech L 81 - 82 68% +4  66% 11 - 1 A +18 A +13 A+ B- B B +5 D+ A- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 139 Georgia Tech W 85 - 79 98% +0  41% 12 - 1 1 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +8 A- C+ C- C- -3 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 86 @Florida St. W 91 - 87 90% +0  43% 13 - 1 2 - 0 B+ +14 A+ +21 A+ A D+ D -7 F F A
 Tue, Jan 6 10 @Louisville W 84 - 73 54% -2  33% 14 - 1 3 - 0 A+ +34 A +13 A+ F+ B- A+ +20 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 10 36 SMU W 82 - 75 88% +4  78% 15 - 1 4 - 0 A +18 B+ +9 A+ C C A- +9 D A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 71 @California W 71 - 56 88% +3  57% 16 - 1 5 - 0 A+ +26 B +6 C+ A C+ A+ +21 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 77 @Stanford W 80 - 50 89% +15  99% 17 - 1 6 - 0 A+ +41 A+ +19 A A+ A- A+ +25 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 62 Wake Forest W 90 - 69 94% +9  65% 18 - 1 7 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +24 A A+ A+ B- +4 C+ A+ C-
 Mon, Jan 26 10 Louisville W 83 - 52 75% +12  96% 19 - 1 8 - 0 A+ +48 A+ +21 A+ A+ C- A+ +29 A+ A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 60 @Virginia Tech W 72 - 58 86% +9  96% 20 - 1 9 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +18 A+ A+ A A +11 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 134 Boston College W 67 - 49 98% +14  98% 21 - 1 10 - 0 A- +17 B- +4 B+ C C+ A+ +15 B A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 7 25 @North Carolina L 68 - 71 69% +6  94% 21 - 2 10 - 1 A- +16 B +7 C A+ B A- +8 B A+ D+
 Tue, Feb 10 98 @Pittsburgh W 70 - 54 92% +5  78% 22 - 2 11 - 1 A+ +24 B+ +8 A+ A+ F+ A+ +18 B+ A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 14 37 Clemson W 67 - 54 88% +9  91% 23 - 2 12 - 1 A+ +24 B+ +8 A+ F+ B+ A+ +17 A+ A C
 Mon, Feb 16 64 Syracuse W 82 - 64 96%
 Sat, Feb 21 1 Michigan L 74 - 77 40%
 Tue, Feb 24 82 @Notre Dame W 77 - 63 90%
 Sat, Feb 28 23 Virginia W 74 - 64 82%
 Mon, Mar 2 29 @North Carolina St. W 79 - 73 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 25 North Carolina W 80 - 69 85%
Totals 28 - 3 16 - 2 +24 A +11 B A- A A +13 B- C B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A- A B- A- 45% 14% 47% A A A A- A+ C+ B C B A A B B+ A 31% 25% 44% B+ A A A+ A+ B+ A B- A
1.25 68% 50% 36% +6 +2 1.20 40% 1.2 .48 16% .35 72% .25 0.91 48% 34% 30% -7 -1 0.86 22% 0.7 .17 20% .20 70% .24
Nov
4		 Texas B C+ F A+ B- 46% 13% 41% A B A- F C C A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A+ 40% 29% 31% B+ A+ C- A+ A+ A+ D- B- D
1.13 57% 0% 42% 0 +1 1.04 32% 0.7 .24 15% .53 73% .39 0.90 33% 23% 36% -13 -1 0.73 41% 0.8 .32 24% .45 74% .34
Nov
8		 Western Carolina B- B A+ F D- 42% 6% 53% A D+ B- A+ A+ B A+ C A+ A+ A A A+ A+ 34% 31% 36% A A+ A- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+
1.24 64% 67% 29% 0 +2 1.06 33% 1.5 .48 13% .50 76% .38 0.71 45% 28% 19% -15 -2 0.68 28% 0.5 .15 18% .18 55% .10
Nov
11		 Army A+ A+ F A- A+ 36% 5% 59% A- A+ A+ B+ A+ B- A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A 17% 10% 73% A- A A B+ A- A- A+ C- A+
1.48 90% 0% 40% +15 +2 1.36 43% 1.3 .57 13% .43 83% .36 0.77 70% 17% 23% -12 0 0.78 22% 0.8 .18 22% .12 71% .08
Nov
14		 Indiana St. A B+ A- C B 53% 4% 44% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C- A- D B A+ A- A+ B A+ 43% 6% 51% C- A C+ A+ A+ A C A B-
1.31 66% 50% 33% +4 +3 1.16 48% 1.4 .70 16% .33 67% .22 0.81 52% 0% 30% -8 +2 0.91 24% 0.5 .12 24% .26 60% .15
Nov
18		 Kansas A+ A+ A+ F A 43% 8% 49% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C A+ A+ F A- A+ A+ 34% 26% 40% B A+ A+ F B- D+ A B+ A
1.18 68% 50% 24% -2 +2 1.02 37% 1.2 .43 12% .45 65% .29 1.00 78% 29% 19% -5 -1 0.91 22% 1.6 .36 12% .24 71% .17
Nov
21		 Niagara A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 6% 63% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 29% 15% 56% B A+ B- C C+ A+ F A+ D+
1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34 0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19
Nov
23		 Howard A+ A+ A+ D A+ 52% 2% 46% A A+ C A+ B+ A- B- F C- A+ A+ B+ B A+ 39% 20% 41% B A+ A+ B- A+ D- D+ B- C-
1.32 85% 100% 30% +13 +3 1.34 33% 1.3 .44 16% .37 64% .23 0.79 26% 30% 30% -16 0 0.69 19% 1.0 .19 17% .36 71% .26
Nov
27		 Arkansas A- D A+ F+ B- 42% 19% 40% B- B- A A+ A+ C+ A+ C- A A+ B- B B- A+ 28% 22% 50% A- A+ A- A+ A+ A A+ F A+
1.14 50% 56% 26% -5 0 0.94 39% 2.1 .81 17% .36 67% .24 1.01 60% 33% 33% -1 -1 0.98 29% 1.0 .29 17% .19 82% .15
Dec
2		 Florida B A- A+ D A- 46% 8% 46% A+ A A B- B+ D+ B- F C A+ A+ F+ B- A+ 43% 12% 45% B- A+ D A+ A- A A+ D+ A+
1.03 61% 50% 30% 0 +2 1.06 31% 0.7 .23 18% .30 63% .19 1.01 41% 50% 30% -8 +1 0.88 48% 0.8 .36 20% .23 75% .17
Dec
6		 Michigan St. B+ A+ F D B 23% 19% 57% C B- B+ B- B A A+ F+ A+ A+ A A+ B A+ 36% 29% 35% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ B A+
1.03 73% 22% 30% -3 -1 0.94 25% 0.8 .20 12% .41 65% .27 0.93 50% 6% 32% -13 -1 0.73 28% 0.8 .21 8% .24 71% .17
Dec
16		 Lipscomb B- B- A+ F+ C- 50% 6% 44% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ F A- A- A A B A- C B+ 50% 14% 36% D+ B A+ A+ A+ B+ F+ F F
1.18 63% 67% 29% +1 +3 1.09 53% 1.3 .68 27% .36 77% .28 0.89 52% 25% 33% -5 +2 0.95 8% 0.0 .00 19% .30 90% .27
Dec
20		 Texas Tech A A- A+ A+ A+ 40% 7% 53% A+ A+ D+ A+ B- B A+ F A+ B D- F C- D+ 39% 24% 37% C- D+ A+ D- A- C+ C- A C+
1.15 67% 67% 42% +12 +2 1.29 21% 1.3 .28 16% .49 59% .29 1.16 70% 58% 37% +11 0 1.24 23% 1.1 .27 16% .29 65% .19
Dec
31		 Georgia Tech B+ C+ A+ C A- 30% 17% 52% B- A- A+ F C+ C- A+ D+ A+ C- F D+ F F 29% 35% 35% A+ F A+ A+ A+ A+ A- F C+
1.18 57% 63% 33% +4 0 1.09 48% 0.7 .34 17% .58 69% .40 1.10 80% 39% 56% +18 -3 1.33 19% 0.0 .00 24% .24 85% .20
Jan
3		 Florida St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 7% 57% A A+ A B+ A D+ A+ A+ A+ D B- F F F 32% 16% 52% B+ F B- F F A C+ B B-
1.30 59% 67% 42% +9 +2 1.24 40% 1.1 .44 22% .46 92% .42 1.25 56% 50% 46% +11 0 1.24 30% 1.8 .53 19% .28 69% .19
Jan
6		 Louisville A A+ A+ B- A+ 41% 20% 39% A- A+ C- F F+ B- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F+ B- A+ 25% 15% 60% A+ A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ B- A+
1.13 71% 60% 35% +10 0 1.24 23% 0.5 .11 16% .45 68% .30 0.98 43% 50% 33% -3 0 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 19% .20 75% .15
Jan
10		 SMU B+ B F A+ A+ 32% 14% 55% B+ A+ D+ B- C C A+ A A+ A- C+ F F F 31% 40% 29% A+ D B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F A-
1.18 64% 17% 46% +9 0 1.20 27% 1.0 .27 19% .48 78% .37 1.08 60% 58% 50% +16 -3 1.27 35% 0.8 .26 30% .19 89% .16
Jan
14		 California B B+ A+ F C- 39% 4% 57% A C+ A+ B A C+ C+ F D- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 24% 33% 43% A A+ A+ A+ A+ B B- C+ B-
1.10 63% 100% 21% -6 +2 0.94 40% 1.1 .43 15% .31 47% .15 0.87 33% 56% 24% -7 -3 0.84 18% 0.3 .06 17% .32 76% .24
Jan
17		 Stanford A+ B F A B+ 60% 16% 23% A+ A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ D A+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ 40% 11% 49% B- A+ C B+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+
1.27 62% 29% 40% +3 +2 1.12 41% 1.5 .63 16% .53 71% .38 0.79 44% 40% 23% -13 +1 0.78 35% 0.8 .30 29% .22 60% .13
Jan
24		 Wake Forest A+ A F B- A- 50% 7% 43% A+ A A+ B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C A+ F C 24% 14% 62% B- C+ A+ C+ A+ C- A F B+
1.39 70% 0% 35% +4 +3 1.15 50% 1.1 .56 14% .43 88% .38 1.07 58% 0% 42% +2 0 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 14% .23 85% .20
Jan
26		 Louisville A+ B- A+ C A 54% 4% 42% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ C- B+ C+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B A+ 28% 6% 66% B A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A A A+
1.28 59% 100% 33% +3 +3 1.14 47% 1.1 .50 19% .34 72% .25 0.80 38% 0% 32% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.6 .12 19% .25 69% .17
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Virginia Tech A+ A+ A+ F A+ 46% 17% 37% B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A F C F A F A C+ C- 25% 27% 48% A C+ C- A+ A+ B A+ F A+
1.25 76% 63% 24% +7 +1 1.17 44% 1.3 .59 14% .14 71% .10 1.01 91% 25% 33% +4 -2 1.07 34% 0.5 .19 17% .13 83% .11
Feb
3		 Boston College B- A+ F F B 55% 9% 36% A+ B+ D A C C+ A+ B+ A+ A+ B- D A+ B 33% 24% 43% C B A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+
1.09 71% 0% 25% -1 +3 1.05 23% 1.1 .26 15% .38 70% .27 0.80 53% 45% 25% -6 -1 0.89 20% 0.6 .11 20% .18 44% .08
Feb
7		 North Carolina B D+ F+ D+ D+ 49% 21% 30% A C B+ A+ A+ B F A+ D- A- B- F+ D- C- 23% 43% 34% A+ B A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ F B+
1.07 50% 27% 31% -7 +1 0.89 31% 1.7 .53 13% .11 83% .09 1.11 58% 48% 39% +7 -4 1.08 13% 1.0 .13 11% .25 79% .19
Feb
10		 Pittsburgh B+ A+ B B- A+ 34% 16% 50% C+ A+ A- A+ A+ F+ F F F A+ F A+ A B+ 24% 16% 59% B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+
1.14 87% 43% 36% +12 0 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 21% .17 63% .10 0.88 75% 25% 28% -4 0 0.94 19% 0.7 .14 20% .16 38% .06
Feb
14		 Clemson B+ A+ F A A+ 30% 17% 53% B- A+ B+ F F+ B+ C+ C- C A+ A+ C A+ A+ 35% 25% 40% A A+ B+ A+ A C A+ F+ A+
1.08 71% 25% 40% +7 0 1.15 28% 0.3 .09 16% .29 73% .21 0.87 41% 42% 26% -10 -1 0.81 24% 0.8 .19 15% .19 80% .15



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 12.1 39.3 43.7 96.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 2.1 3.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.3 2.5 14.2 39.3 43.7 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 43.7    43.7
16-2 100.0% 39.3    36.3 3.0
15-3 85.1% 12.1    6.2 5.6 0.3 0.0
14-4 35.4% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.0    0.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 96.0% 96.0 86.2 9.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 43.7% 100.0% 54.0% 46.0% 1.2 36.1 7.4 0.1 100.0%
16-2 39.3% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 1.3 26.8 12.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
15-3 14.2% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.5 7.9 5.7 0.6 0.0 100.0%
14-4 2.5% 100.0% 37.6% 62.4% 1.8 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
13-5 0.3% 100.0% 28.3% 71.7% 2.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 50.6% 49.4% 1.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 10.4% 100.0% 1.1 91.5 8.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.6% 100.0% 1.2 84.5 14.9 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.4% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 21.4 0.1