Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.0 267
Expected Predictive Rating -3.9 226
Pace 67.5 215
Improvement +0.1 183

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 204 D+ C B- D- C
Defense D 308 D+ C- D+ C F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 169 D- 51% 331 -2.5 273
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 148 C 39% 148 +0.8 133
Three Pointers 39% 226 C- 33% 236 -1.8 246
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 212 D -3.3 297
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 287
Second Chance B- 33.3% 97 D 0.93 308 C 0.31 178
Turnovers B- 15.6% 100
Freethrows D- 0.25 339 D+ 70% 257 D- 0.17 339
Total Offense C- -1.3 204

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 284 F+ 15.2% 348
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 298 C+ 4.6% 151
Three Pointers F+ 73% 354 F+ 2.0% 347
Total D- 46% 335 F+ 7.7% 344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 6 C 58% 184 +5.3 338
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 334 C 39% 214 -2.0 39
Three Pointers 37% 281 D 37% 317 +0.0 182
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 359 D+ +1.9 253
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.09 289
Second Chance C- 31.2% 217 C 1.04 195 C- 0.32 218
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 265
Freethrows C+ 0.30 163 D 75% 311 C 0.22 192
Total Defense D -4.7 308

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 109 C- 10.1% 202
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 336 D+ 3.5% 264
Three Pointers D- 90% 354 D- -0.1% 347
Total C- 57% 217 C- 5.3% 200

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.3 173 17.3 193
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 241 0.16 154
Improvement +1.4 #118 -1.3 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 4% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 97% 100% 92%
.500 or above in Conference 70% 85% 41%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four1% 1% 1%
First Round3% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 64.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 417 - 718 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 115 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 13% +2  54% 0 - 1 C- -2 D -6 F F A+ B +4 B A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 308 @NJIT W 74 - 53 49% +6  62% 1 - 1 A- +15 D- -7 F B- F A+ +21 A A B+
 Mon, Nov 10 56 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  2% 1 - 2 D -10 D+ -4 C D- D+ D- -7 A- F+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 341 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 81% +2  70% 2 - 2 D- -13 F -11 F F+ A- C- -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 315 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 73% +4  97% 3 - 2 D -10 C +1 D- A- A F -11 F A C+
 Sat, Nov 22 298 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 45% +12  94% 4 - 2 B +9 A+ +19 A+ B A F -10 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 198 Columbia L 77 - 106 47% -18  0% 4 - 3 F -34 D+ -3 D C+ C- F -31 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 338 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 80% +0  58% 5 - 3 D -11 D+ -3 C C D D- -7 C- B F
 Fri, Dec 5 317 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 53% -4  4% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D -11 F -17 F F F A- +7 C A A
 Sun, Dec 7 164 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 20% -10  0% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -8 D+ -3 C+ F D+ D -6 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 190 Monmouth W 73 - 65 46% +0  35% 6 - 5 C+ +3 B- +4 C+ B A C -0 C- B+ C-
 Thu, Dec 18 290 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 44% +14  82% 7 - 5 B +10 A- +10 A C+ C- C+ +1 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 227 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 53% +1  51% 7 - 6 0 - 3 D -11 F+ -9 F C+ B- C- -2 C A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 346 @Canisius L 81 - 85 64% -4  4% 7 - 7 0 - 4 D- -14 B +7 D- B- A- F -21 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 336 @Niagara W 83 - 75 60% +5  93% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -1 A+ +17 B B A+ F -16 F C- F+
 Fri, Jan 9 355 Rider W 68 - 62 86% +8  93% 9 - 7 2 - 4 D- -11 D- -8 F A+ A- C- -3 F A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 317 Manhattan W 98 - 62 74% +20  98% 10 - 7 3 - 4 A+ +23 A- +11 A+ C- B- A+ +11 A+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 185 @Marist L 67 - 82 24% -13  0% 10 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C +1 F A- A- F -16 F F B-
 Mon, Jan 19 189 @Siena L 77 - 85 25% -8  5% 10 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +8 C A+ B+ F -16 F B- B+
 Thu, Jan 22 336 Niagara W 62 - 61 79% +3  75% 11 - 9 4 - 6 D- -14 F -15 F C- D- B- +2 C- A- C
 Sat, Jan 24 346 Canisius W 61 - 55 82% +7  87% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -10 F -11 D D F B- +2 B D B+
 Fri, Jan 30 252 @Iona W 71 - 70 35% -2  25% 13 - 9 6 - 6 C -1 B- +4 A- D- D+ D -5 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 1 194 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 46% +2  66% 13 - 10 6 - 7 D- -12 F+ -9 F C- A+ D+ -3 D D B-
 Thu, Feb 5 284 @Sacred Heart W 92 - 87 42% +8  98% 14 - 10 7 - 7 C +1 A- +10 A- B+ D+ F+ -9 C- F F
 Sat, Feb 7 185 Marist W 63 - 60 45% +4  85% 15 - 10 8 - 7 C -2 C- -0 C D+ A+ C -1 B- D+ B-
 Sun, Feb 15 227 @St. Peter's L 74 - 83 30% -14  0% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D -10 C +1 D+ A- D F -11 F A- A-
 Fri, Feb 20 284 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 65%
 Sun, Feb 22 194 @Quinnipiac L 72 - 79 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 189 Siena L 72 - 73 46%
 Sun, Mar 1 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 71 66%
Totals 17 - 13 10 - 10 -6 C- -1 D+ D C D -5 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C C- D 39% 40% 39% C D+ B- D C B- D- D+ D- D C C D D+ 47% 15% 37% F+ D+ C- C C- D+ C+ D C
1.07 51% 39% 33% -3 0 0.95 33% 0.9 .31 16% .25 70% .17 1.15 58% 39% 37% +2 +1 1.09 31% 1.0 .32 15% .30 75% .19
Nov
3		 Penn St. D B C F F 38% 13% 48% B- F C- F F A+ F A+ D- B C+ B B+ B+ 52% 15% 33% D- B A D+ A- F F+ A+ C
0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13 1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24
Nov
8		 NJIT D- F C+ C F 48% 16% 36% B F B C- B- F B+ D- B- A+ A- A A+ A+ 27% 20% 54% C- A A+ A A B+ A+ B A+
0.99 33% 38% 33% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 21% .41 67% .27 0.71 47% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.73 16% 0.7 .12 21% .20 67% .14
Nov
10		 Seton Hall D+ F C A+ C+ 30% 26% 44% D- C C F D- D+ A+ A- A+ D- A+ F A+ A+ 59% 16% 25% F A- D+ F+ F+ F F F F
0.86 23% 36% 42% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.6 .18 25% .45 78% .35 1.20 43% 50% 23% -11 +2 0.84 37% 1.2 .44 10% .45 82% .37
Nov
14		 Stonehill F F F F+ F 34% 20% 46% C- F F C+ F+ A- B+ B+ A- C- B A+ F C- 49% 16% 35% D- D+ A+ B- A+ F A- D B
0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25 0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12
Nov
16		 Loyola Maryland C D C+ F+ F+ 44% 25% 32% C D- B- A A- A C F D- F F F B F 49% 13% 38% D F A A A C+ C- D D+
1.19 56% 43% 28% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.4 .50 10% .30 58% .17 1.15 77% 57% 30% +10 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 18% .27 75% .21
Nov
22		 Le Moyne A+ A B A+ A+ 47% 25% 28% C- A+ A D+ B A B A+ A F B- A+ F+ B- 49% 11% 40% F+ C+ F F F B- F B F
1.37 68% 38% 47% +10 0 1.23 41% 1.0 .41 10% .36 87% .31 1.18 55% 0% 39% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.6 .66 21% .54 67% .36
Nov
26		 Columbia D+ F B- D+ D 38% 24% 38% D+ D A- D- C+ C- D D D- F D+ A+ F F 63% 2% 35% F F F F F F C+ F D-
1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18 1.49 62% 0% 53% +11 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25
Nov
30		 New Hampshire D+ F A+ A+ C 45% 24% 31% C- C A F C D C- F F D- B- A B+ C+ 65% 8% 27% F C- F+ A+ B F F B F+
1.11 41% 50% 47% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 17% .32 59% .19 1.05 52% 25% 29% -7 +4 0.94 32% 0.5 .17 11% .38 64% .24
Dec
5		 Manhattan F F B F F 25% 28% 47% F F B+ F F F F A+ F A- B- F A- B- 52% 12% 36% F C B- A+ A A F+ D+ F
0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10 0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30
Dec
7		 Merrimack D+ D F A C+ 38% 23% 38% C- C+ C- F F D+ D+ F D- D D+ D F F 40% 16% 44% B- F A A+ A+ D F D F
0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20 1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40
Dec
14		 Monmouth B- F+ C- A+ C+ 51% 21% 28% C+ C+ A D+ B A F F F C C A- B+ B- 56% 13% 31% F C- B+ B+ B+ C- A+ F+ A+
1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02 1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07
Dec
18		 Central Connecticut St. A- C+ A A+ A 40% 15% 45% C- A C- B C+ C- D D D C+ A+ B C A+ 30% 22% 48% F+ A D+ F F F B F+ B-
1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17 1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19
Dec
29		 St. Peter's F+ F D+ F+ F 48% 12% 40% B+ F D A+ C+ B- F+ C D- C- D A+ A+ B 57% 10% 33% F C F A+ A D- A+ F A+
0.98 40% 33% 29% -12 +2 0.81 30% 1.4 .41 18% .34 74% .25 1.04 61% 0% 21% -9 +3 0.90 42% 0.6 .23 15% .19 82% .16
Jan
2		 Canisius B C- F D+ F+ 43% 20% 37% C+ D- A- D B- A- A C+ A F A+ A+ F F 34% 16% 50% D- F D+ F F F F D- F
1.21 59% 30% 32% -2 0 0.98 40% 0.9 .38 12% .39 74% .29 1.27 35% 25% 52% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.4 .40 9% .44 74% .33
Jan
4		 Niagara A+ C+ A A- B 44% 25% 31% C B A- D+ B A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 59% 4% 37% F F D- B+ C- F+ A+ F A+
1.37 62% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34 1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08
Jan
9		 Rider D- F F F F 43% 13% 45% C F B A+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ C- D F B F 39% 33% 29% C- F B+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ C-
1.09 30% 17% 24% -21 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28 0.99 58% 50% 29% +2 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19
Jan
14		 Manhattan A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% D A+ C- C C- B- A+ F B+ A+ A+ C A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C A+ B B- B B F C F
1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23 0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32
Jan
17		 Marist C D C F F 30% 32% 38% D- F B- A+ A- A- A+ C+ A+ F F C- F F 27% 38% 36% A+ F F F F B- F D+ F
1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34 1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32
Jan
19		 Siena B+ A+ D+ F C+ 28% 28% 44% D- C D A+ A+ B+ D- A+ C F F F F F 35% 35% 30% B F B+ C- B- B+ F F F
1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20 1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31
Jan
22		 Niagara F F A D- F 41% 20% 39% C+ F C D+ C- D- F F F B- B F C- C 54% 8% 38% F C- B A+ A- C A- D B+
0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09 0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Canisius F D B D D 43% 26% 31% D+ D A- F D F C+ F D- B- B A+ A+ A 58% 8% 34% F B F A+ D B+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 56% 45% 31% -1 0 1.00 41% 0.7 .27 20% .33 56% .18 0.90 45% 25% 24% -14 +3 0.80 45% 0.7 .30 23% .17 38% .06
Jan
30		 Iona B- B- B A A- 41% 15% 43% B- A- A+ F D- D+ C F+ C- D A- B F C 40% 13% 47% D- C- F D+ F C F+ F F
1.14 63% 43% 40% +7 +1 1.17 51% 0.5 .24 18% .27 64% .18 1.12 47% 33% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 18% .33 82% .27
Feb
1		 Quinnipiac F+ F C- A- F 52% 21% 27% C+ F B+ F C- A+ F+ F F D+ D F A+ D+ 62% 17% 21% F D B- F D B- A+ B- A+
0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12 1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11
Feb
5		 Sacred Heart A- B+ A+ A A- 43% 11% 45% B- A- C- A+ B+ D+ C B- C+ F+ B+ C- D+ C 30% 15% 56% C- C- D F F F F A+ D-
1.29 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.28 31% 1.4 .45 15% .27 75% .20 1.22 50% 38% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.6 .49 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
7		 Marist C- A+ B- F C 27% 21% 52% C C D+ D+ D+ A+ F A F+ C A+ F B- B+ 48% 17% 35% F B- F A D+ B- C- F D-
1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19 0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24
Feb
15		 St. Peter's C D+ F B D+ 58% 24% 18% C+ D+ B A- A- D A C A F C- C F F 45% 20% 35% D F B- A A- A- F F F
1.08 54% 27% 38% -4 +1 0.96 41% 1.2 .50 22% .50 74% .37 1.21 56% 38% 57% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.8 .25 22% .61 85% .52



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.5 0.5 3rd
4th 0.3 2.2 2.5 4th
5th 0.4 5.6 2.4 8.4 5th
6th 0.2 19.8 19.2 0.8 40.0 6th
7th 6.4 16.3 0.5 23.2 7th
8th 0.1 12.2 1.7 14.0 8th
9th 2.9 5.6 8.5 9th
10th 2.6 0.3 2.9 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 5.6 24.8 38.1 25.5 6.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 6.0% 8.0% 8.0% 15.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.5
11-9 25.5% 4.4% 4.4% 15.6 0.0 0.4 0.7 24.4
10-10 38.1% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.2 0.9 37.1
9-11 24.8% 1.5% 1.5% 15.9 0.0 0.3 24.5
8-12 5.6% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 5.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 15.6 97.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 15.1 12.6 66.3 21.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.4%
Lose Out 2.9%