IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	-9.0	#319
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.4	#252
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-5.0	#313

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-4.1	#304

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.8%	6.0%	2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	17.3	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	31.5%	63.1%	29.9%
.500 or above in Conference	34.9%	57.8%	33.8%
Conference Champion	2.5%	7.3%	2.2%
Last Place in Conference	15.0%	5.9%	15.5%

First Four	1.1%	1.6%	1.1%
First Round	2.6%	5.5%	2.4%
Second Round	0.0%	0.3%	0.0%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 4.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	1 - 5	1 - 7
Quad 4	12 - 11	13 - 18

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	90	@ Penn St.	L	62-80	5%
Nov 08, 2025	357	@ NJIT	W	67-65	58%
Nov 10, 2025	101	@ Seton Hall	L	56-73	6%
Nov 14, 2025	340	Stonehill	W	68-63	69%
Nov 16, 2025	317	Loyola Maryland	W	69-66	59%
Nov 22, 2025	347	@ Le Moyne	L	72-73	49%
Nov 26, 2025	265	Columbia	L	74-75	48%
Nov 30, 2025	356	New Hampshire	W	72-65	74%
Dec 05, 2025	260	@ Manhattan	L	68-75	28%
Dec 07, 2025	257	@ Merrimack	L	60-67	27%
Dec 14, 2025	211	Monmouth	L	68-71	39%
Dec 18, 2025	305	@ Central Connecticut St.	L	62-66	37%
Dec 29, 2025	297	St. Peter's	W	63-62	54%
Jan 02, 2026	346	@ Canisius	L	67-68	49%
Jan 04, 2026	335	@ Niagara	L	65-67	44%
Jan 09, 2026	313	Rider	W	68-65	58%
Jan 14, 2026	260	Manhattan	L	71-72	47%
Jan 17, 2026	237	@ Marist	L	58-66	25%
Jan 19, 2026	222	@ Siena	L	64-73	24%
Jan 22, 2026	335	Niagara	W	68-64	64%
Jan 24, 2026	346	Canisius	W	71-65	68%
Jan 30, 2026	199	@ Iona	L	65-75	21%
Feb 01, 2026	215	Quinnipiac	L	71-74	41%
Feb 05, 2026	254	@ Sacred Heart	L	70-77	28%
Feb 07, 2026	237	Marist	L	61-63	44%
Feb 15, 2026	297	@ St. Peter's	L	60-65	35%
Feb 20, 2026	254	Sacred Heart	L	73-74	47%
Feb 22, 2026	215	@ Quinnipiac	L	68-77	24%
Feb 27, 2026	222	Siena	L	67-70	42%
Mar 01, 2026	269	Mount St. Mary's	L	67-68	50%
Projected Record						13 - 17	8 - 12

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.3	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.0	0.0		2.5	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	0.7	1.3	1.0	0.4	0.1	0.0				3.7	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.2	1.0	2.0	1.1	0.4	0.1						4.7	3rd
4th											0.1	1.1	2.4	1.6	0.3	0.0							5.5	4th
5th										0.1	1.1	2.9	2.0	0.4	0.0								6.5	5th
6th									0.1	0.9	3.1	2.7	0.4	0.0									7.2	6th
7th								0.0	0.9	3.4	3.4	0.8	0.0										8.6	7th
8th							0.0	0.6	3.1	3.8	1.3	0.1											8.9	8th
9th						0.0	0.7	3.0	4.6	1.7	0.1												10.1	9th
10th					0.0	0.8	3.0	4.2	2.2	0.3	0.0												10.5	10th
11th			0.0	0.2	1.1	3.2	4.2	2.0	0.3	0.0													10.9	11th
12th		0.0	0.4	1.6	3.1	3.6	1.8	0.4	0.0														10.9	12th
13th	0.3	1.2	2.2	2.8	2.1	1.1	0.2	0.0															9.9	13th

Total	0.3	1.2	2.7	4.5	6.4	8.7	9.8	10.3	11.1	10.1	9.2	7.8	5.9	4.9	3.1	2.1	1.1	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.0		0.0
18-2	94.7%	0.2		0.2	0.0
17-3	82.8%	0.5		0.4	0.1
16-4	57.1%	0.7		0.4	0.3	0.0	0.0
15-5	30.7%	0.6		0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0
14-6	10.4%	0.3		0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0
13-7	1.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.2%	0.0			0.0		0.0	0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.5%	2.5		1.4	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		39.5%	39.5%		12.5													0.0	0.0				0.0
19-1	0.0%		50.0%	50.0%		13.0												0.0		0.0	0.0			0.0
18-2	0.2%		34.0%	34.0%		14.7														0.0	0.0	0.0		0.2
17-3	0.6%		33.0%	33.0%		14.7													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.4
16-4	1.1%		20.4%	20.4%		15.7														0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.9
15-5	2.1%		16.5%	16.5%		16.6														0.0	0.1	0.2	0.1	1.7
14-6	3.1%		13.5%	13.5%		17.5														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	2.7
13-7	4.9%		8.9%	8.9%		18.2															0.0	0.2	0.3	4.5
12-8	5.9%		6.4%	6.4%		17.8															0.0	0.1	0.3	5.5
11-9	7.8%		4.0%	4.0%		18.6																0.1	0.3	7.5
10-10	9.2%		2.0%	2.0%		20.1																0.0	0.2	9.0
9-11	10.1%		1.3%	1.3%		18.0																0.0	0.1	10.0
8-12	11.1%		0.8%	0.8%		16.8																	0.1	11.1
7-13	10.3%		0.2%	0.2%		16.0																	0.0	10.2
6-14	9.8%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	9.8
5-15	8.7%		0.0%	0.0%		16.0																	0.0	8.7
4-16	6.4%																							6.4
3-17	4.5%																							4.5
2-18	2.7%																							2.7
1-19	1.2%																							1.2
0-20	0.3%																							0.3

Total	100%		2.8%	2.8%	0.0%	17.3												0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.9	1.9	97.2		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.0%