Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.7 #281
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #250
Pace 68.2 #217
Improvement -1.2 #251

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #196 D D- C- B- C-
Defense #334 D+ C C- F F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #185 1.00 #336 -3.3 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #120 0.75 #177 +1.1 #120
Three Pointers 38% #236 0.99 #204 -1.7 #241
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #283 -4.0 #284
Freethrows 13.6 #329 75% #99 10.2 #308
Second Chance 33.5% #104 0.89 #328 0.30 #224
Turnovers 15.4% #106
Total Offense -1.2 #196

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 50% #4 1.18 #191 -6.9 #356
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #357 0.64 #53 +3.4 #6
Three Pointers 37% #281 1.10 #291 +0.4 #174
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.1 #279
Freethrows 16.7 #160 77% #346 12.9 #210
Second Chance 31.0% #189 1.09 #238 0.34 #222
Turnovers 13.6% #332
Total Defense -5.5 #334

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #239 3.6% #363
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.0% #282 2.4% #229
Possession Length 17.6 #202 17.3 #196
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #250 0.18 #222
Improvement +3.4 #17 -4.7 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.3% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 49.6% 55.1% 28.7%
.500 or above in Conference 23.3% 26.9% 9.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.6% 3.1% 14.9%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
First Round1.7% 1.9% 0.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 414 - 716 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 117 @Penn St. L 68-76 12%     1.9   0 - 1 -1.8 -2.2 +0.3
  Sat, Nov 8 355 @NJIT W 74-53 64%     5.6   1 - 1 +10.7 -5.3 +14.6
  Mon, Nov 10 53 @Seton Hall L 59-82 4%     -10.0   1 - 2 -9.9 -2.3 -8.1
  Fri, Nov 14 339 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 77%     2.4   2 - 2 -12.5 -10.2 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 16 344 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 78%     4.4   3 - 2 -11.9 +0.9 -12.9
  Sat, Nov 22 309 @Le Moyne W 97-83 44%     12.0   4 - 2 +8.7 +18.7 -10.2
  Wed, Nov 26 138 Columbia L 77-106 31%     -17.6   4 - 3 -30.7 +2.0 -32.2
  Sun, Nov 30 340 New Hampshire W 72-68 77%     0.2   5 - 3 -10.5 +0.9 -11.1
  Fri, Dec 5 307 @Manhattan L 66-70 44%     -4.5   5 - 4 0 - 1 -9.3 -14.0 +4.9
  Sun, Dec 7 241 @Merrimack L 63-74 31%     -10.1   5 - 5 0 - 2 -12.7 -3.2 -10.5
  Sun, Dec 14 210 Monmouth W 73-65 47%     0.1   6 - 5 +2.1 +6.0 -3.1
  Thu, Dec 18 271 @Central Connecticut St. W 84-70 37%     14.2   7 - 5 +10.8 +13.8 -2.2
  Mon, Dec 29 251 St. Peter's L 66-70 56%     0.9   7 - 6 0 - 3 -12.3 -5.3 -7.2
  Fri, Jan 2 337 @Canisius L 81-85 56%     -4.3   7 - 7 0 - 4 -12.3 +9.1 -21.6
  Sun, Jan 4 353 @Niagara W 83-75 63%     5.3   8 - 7 1 - 4 -2.2 +18.3 -19.3
  Fri, Jan 9 348 Rider W 75-66 79%    
  Wed, Jan 14 307 Manhattan W 81-76 67%    
  Sat, Jan 17 137 @Marist L 63-74 15%    
  Mon, Jan 19 180 @Siena L 69-77 22%    
  Thu, Jan 22 353 Niagara W 76-67 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 337 Canisius W 75-67 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 214 @Iona L 75-82 27%    
  Sun, Feb 1 160 Quinnipiac L 76-79 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 287 @Sacred Heart L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Feb 7 137 Marist L 66-71 32%    
  Sun, Feb 15 251 @St. Peter's L 68-72 34%    
  Fri, Feb 20 287 Sacred Heart W 80-77 61%    
  Sun, Feb 22 160 @Quinnipiac L 73-82 19%    
  Fri, Feb 27 180 Siena L 72-74 41%    
  Sun, Mar 1 295 Mount St. Mary's W 76-72 64%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.1 0.1 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 3.9 2.8 0.3 8.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 5.1 5.1 1.0 0.0 12.3 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 5.4 6.9 1.8 0.1 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 5.6 7.6 3.0 0.2 0.0 17.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 4.7 7.7 3.6 0.3 0.0 17.0 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 3.3 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 13.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 6.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.4 7.4 12.8 17.5 18.0 16.2 11.7 6.9 3.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 81.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 27.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 17.4% 17.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-7 1.1% 11.2% 11.2% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-8 3.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.9
11-9 6.9% 5.1% 5.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 6.6
10-10 11.7% 3.1% 3.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 11.4
9-11 16.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 15.9
8-12 18.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3 17.7
7-13 17.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 17.3
6-14 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-15 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
4-16 3.4% 3.4
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.5 1.4 98.0 0.0%