Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#232
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#243
Pace62.4#323
Improvement+1.3#40

Offense
Total Offense-3.6#286
First Shot-4.7#317
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#94
Layup/Dunks-2.4#279
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#258
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#277
Freethrows+1.5#69
Improvement+0.3#139

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#174
First Shot+0.2#168
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#205
Layups/Dunks-7.2#360
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#27
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#10
Freethrows-0.3#209
Improvement+1.0#42
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.9% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.6 15.9
.500 or above 18.0% 38.6% 12.5%
.500 or above in Conference 63.9% 85.9% 58.0%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.4%
First Four1.3% 1.2% 1.3%
First Round1.5% 2.4% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Quinnipiac (Away) - 21.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 9
Quad 410 - 713 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 67   @ Wake Forest L 59-71 9%     0 - 1 -1.0 -9.5 +8.1
  Nov 11, 2022 272   @ New Hampshire L 71-83 47%     0 - 2 -15.0 +4.7 -20.8
  Nov 15, 2022 19   @ Xavier L 65-78 4%     0 - 3 +3.6 -6.6 +10.9
  Nov 18, 2022 284   @ Wagner L 52-68 51%     0 - 4 -19.9 -12.3 -10.1
  Nov 25, 2022 141   Towson W 74-69 30%     1 - 4 +6.7 +11.0 -3.7
  Nov 26, 2022 228   Mercer L 58-60 48%     1 - 5 -5.1 -9.9 +4.6
  Nov 27, 2022 341   Evansville W 63-56 77%     2 - 5 -4.5 -13.3 +8.8
  Dec 01, 2022 294   @ Manhattan L 53-56 52%     2 - 6 0 - 1 -7.3 -12.1 +4.3
  Dec 03, 2022 263   St. Peter's W 67-55 67%     3 - 6 1 - 1 +3.8 -0.8 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2022 323   Sacred Heart W 61-59 78%     4 - 6 -9.9 -15.2 +5.4
  Dec 12, 2022 92   Yale L 64-77 27%     4 - 7 -10.4 -0.8 -10.9
  Dec 30, 2022 316   Marist W 73-54 76%     5 - 7 2 - 1 +8.0 -3.4 +11.3
  Jan 01, 2023 151   Siena L 61-70 43%     5 - 8 2 - 2 -10.9 -8.6 -2.9
  Jan 06, 2023 239   Niagara L 69-77 OT 62%     5 - 9 2 - 3 -14.7 -11.1 -3.1
  Jan 13, 2023 85   @ Iona L 69-75 13%     5 - 10 2 - 4 +2.6 +2.4 +0.0
  Jan 15, 2023 263   @ St. Peter's W 56-52 46%     6 - 10 3 - 4 +1.3 -4.2 +6.3
  Jan 20, 2023 281   Canisius W 67-58 70%     7 - 10 4 - 4 -0.1 -4.6 +5.2
  Jan 22, 2023 151   @ Siena W 62-52 24%     8 - 10 5 - 4 +13.6 -1.4 +16.1
  Jan 26, 2023 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 63-60 52%     9 - 10 6 - 4 -1.1 -2.0 +1.3
  Jan 29, 2023 196   Rider L 69-78 OT 52%     9 - 11 6 - 5 -13.1 -1.2 -12.7
  Feb 03, 2023 133   @ Quinnipiac L 62-70 21%    
  Feb 05, 2023 85   Iona L 64-71 27%    
  Feb 10, 2023 196   @ Rider L 63-68 31%    
  Feb 12, 2023 290   Mount St. Mary's W 64-58 72%    
  Feb 17, 2023 316   @ Marist W 63-61 56%    
  Feb 19, 2023 294   Manhattan W 68-62 72%    
  Feb 24, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 59-61 40%    
  Feb 26, 2023 281   @ Canisius L 65-66 49%    
  Mar 02, 2023 133   Quinnipiac L 65-68 40%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.3 2.0 0.1 10.9 4th
5th 0.2 3.7 12.3 14.0 5.5 0.3 0.0 36.0 5th
6th 0.1 3.8 12.7 11.8 3.5 0.3 32.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 5.5 4.1 0.7 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 1.6 0.2 3.6 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.5 3.6 11.3 20.8 25.1 20.7 12.1 4.6 1.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 52.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 12.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 10.0% 10.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 1.2% 6.5% 6.5% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-7 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.4
12-8 12.1% 3.2% 3.2% 15.7 0.1 0.3 11.7
11-9 20.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5 20.2
10-10 25.1% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.5 24.7
9-11 20.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 20.5
8-12 11.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.2
7-13 3.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.6
6-14 0.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.5
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 10.0% 14.3 2.5 2.5 5.0
Lose Out 0.5% 1.9% 16.0 1.9