Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.8#237
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#242
Pace63.1#319
Improvement-2.2#327

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#221
First Shot-1.8#227
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#162
Layup/Dunks-2.0#241
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#95
Freethrows+1.0#115
Improvement+0.9#88

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#250
First Shot-6.4#336
After Offensive Rebounds+4.2#7
Layups/Dunks-3.5#287
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#305
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#203
Freethrows-0.2#201
Improvement-3.0#350
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 6.4% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 45.0% 59.3% 31.6%
.500 or above in Conference 51.1% 66.1% 37.0%
Conference Champion 4.6% 7.0% 2.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.4% 2.9% 13.5%
First Four1.2% 0.9% 1.4%
First Round4.5% 6.0% 3.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 412 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 54   @ Providence L 73-80 9%     0 - 1 +4.4 -1.2 +6.1
  Nov 14, 2021 125   @ Boston College L 64-72 19%     0 - 2 -2.3 -3.4 +0.7
  Nov 20, 2021 309   @ Sacred Heart W 71-61 55%     1 - 2 +4.8 +2.4 +3.7
  Nov 24, 2021 219   Stony Brook W 83-78 OT 56%     2 - 2 -0.4 +6.6 -7.0
  Nov 28, 2021 287   Loyola Maryland L 70-75 72%     2 - 3 -14.8 -0.3 -14.9
  Dec 03, 2021 284   @ Canisius L 70-71 48%    
  Dec 05, 2021 180   @ Niagara L 61-67 29%    
  Dec 08, 2021 343   Holy Cross W 74-62 88%    
  Dec 12, 2021 332   @ William & Mary W 70-65 67%    
  Dec 15, 2021 325   @ Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 19, 2021 116   @ Massachusetts L 71-81 18%    
  Dec 23, 2021 156   Wagner L 65-66 44%    
  Dec 31, 2021 253   Manhattan W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 02, 2022 106   Iona L 64-69 32%    
  Jan 07, 2022 255   Marist W 66-62 65%    
  Jan 09, 2022 275   @ Siena L 64-65 48%    
  Jan 16, 2022 294   @ Quinnipiac W 71-70 51%    
  Jan 20, 2022 135   Monmouth L 69-72 39%    
  Jan 23, 2022 255   @ Marist L 63-65 44%    
  Jan 28, 2022 266   @ Rider L 65-66 46%    
  Feb 04, 2022 135   @ Monmouth L 66-75 21%    
  Feb 06, 2022 275   Siena W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 09, 2022 294   Quinnipiac W 73-67 71%    
  Feb 12, 2022 180   Niagara W 64-63 50%    
  Feb 14, 2022 284   Canisius W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 18, 2022 202   St. Peter's W 65-64 53%    
  Feb 20, 2022 106   @ Iona L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 27, 2022 253   @ Manhattan L 63-65 44%    
  Mar 03, 2022 266   Rider W 68-63 67%    
  Mar 05, 2022 202   @ St. Peter's L 62-67 33%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 4.6 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 6.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.6 4.0 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.2 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 5.1 4.2 1.1 0.1 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 4.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.5 4.3 1.0 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.9 0.9 0.1 10.1 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 3.2 3.2 0.9 0.1 8.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.4 2.1 0.6 0.0 6.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.8 4.7 6.7 9.5 11.3 11.7 12.0 11.1 9.4 7.3 5.2 3.1 1.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 82.1% 0.5    0.3 0.2
16-4 64.7% 1.3    0.9 0.2 0.2
15-5 38.6% 1.2    0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 18.0% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2
13-7 3.5% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.6% 4.6 2.3 1.7 0.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 16.0% 16.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.4% 27.1% 27.1% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-3 0.6% 28.1% 28.1% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.9% 27.0% 27.0% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.1% 15.1% 15.1% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.6
14-6 5.2% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 4.4
13-7 7.3% 12.6% 12.6% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 6.4
12-8 9.4% 6.1% 6.1% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 8.8
11-9 11.1% 4.8% 4.8% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.6
10-10 12.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.1 0.3 11.6
9-11 11.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.4
8-12 11.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 11.1
7-13 9.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 9.4
6-14 6.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-15 4.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.6
4-16 2.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 2.8
3-17 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
2-18 0.5% 0.5
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.4 94.9 0.0%