Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.2 #271
Expected Predictive Rating -4.6 #235
Pace 67.1 #226
Improvement -0.4 #205

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #226 D C B- D- C-
Defense #300 D+ C D+ C F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #189 0.99 #349 -3.5 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #130 0.77 #156 +1.1 #112
Three Pointers 39% #218 0.97 #241 -1.9 #249
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #314 -4.3 #312
Freethrows 0.25 #337 70% #263 0.17 #342
Second Chance 33.9% #87 0.91 #322 0.31 #183
Turnovers 15.6% #104
Total Offense -2.0 #226

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #5 1.19 #222 -6.1 #352
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #332 0.76 #197 +2.0 #43
Three Pointers 37% #289 1.09 #290 +0.6 #158
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #292 -3.5 #291
Freethrows 0.29 #136 74% #274 0.21 #159
Second Chance 30.8% #190 1.02 #189 0.32 #187
Turnovers 15.3% #280
Total Defense -4.2 #300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.6% #232 2.7% #359
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.2% #320 4.1% #262
Possession Length 17.4 #185 17.4 #203
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #261 0.17 #175
Improvement +0.3 #162 -0.7 #228

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.6% 3.2% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 74.7% 90.9% 64.5%
.500 or above in Conference 36.1% 59.1% 21.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.1% 0.9% 1.3%
First Round2.1% 2.9% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 38.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 52 - 7
Quad 415 - 817 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 113 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 12% +2  0 - 1 -2 -4 F F A+ +2 B- A- F+
 Sat, Nov 8 324 @NJIT W 74 - 53 53% +6  1 - 1 +14 -5 F C+ F +18 A- A+ B
 Mon, Nov 10 55 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  1 - 2 -10 -2 C D- C -9 B+ D- F
 Fri, Nov 14 329 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 75% +2  2 - 2 -11 -8 F D- A- -4 C- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 316 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 72% +4  3 - 2 -9 +3 F+ B+ A -13 F A+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 296 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 44% +12  4 - 2 +9 +21 A+ B A -12 C F C+
 Wed, Nov 26 183 Columbia L 77 - 106 43% -18  4 - 3 -34 -0 D C+ C- -33 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 320 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 74% +0  5 - 3 -9 +1 C+ C D+ -9 C- B+ F
 Fri, Dec 5 328 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 54% -4  5 - 4 0 - 1 -11 -15 F F F +4 C B+ A-
 Sun, Dec 7 200 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 26% -10  5 - 5 0 - 2 -11 -2 C F C- -9 F A+ D
 Sun, Dec 14 213 Monmouth W 73 - 65 49% +0  6 - 5 +2 +7 B- B A -4 C- B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 299 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 46% +14  7 - 5 +9 +13 A- C+ C- -3 A- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 234 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 53% +1  7 - 6 0 - 3 -11 -6 F C+ B -6 C A- D-
 Fri, Jan 2 348 @Canisius L 81 - 85 61% -4  7 - 7 0 - 4 -13 +9 D- B A- -22 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 341 @Niagara W 83 - 75 59% +5  8 - 7 1 - 4 -1 +20 B- B- A+ -19 F C F+
 Fri, Jan 9 351 Rider W 68 - 62 81% +8  9 - 7 2 - 4 -10 -5 F A+ B+ -4 F A+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 328 Manhattan W 98 - 62 75% +20  10 - 7 3 - 4 +23 +13 A+ D+ B- +8 A+ B- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 160 @Marist L 67 - 82 20% -13  10 - 8 3 - 5 -12 +5 F B+ A -18 F F C
 Mon, Jan 19 177 @Siena L 77 - 85 22% -8  10 - 9 3 - 6 -6 +11 C A+ B+ -18 F B- B
 Thu, Jan 22 341 Niagara W 62 - 61 79% +3  11 - 9 4 - 6 -14 -13 F C D- -1 D+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 24 348 Canisius W 61 - 55 80% +7  12 - 9 5 - 6 -9 -9 D- D+ F+ +1 B- D+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 232 @Iona W 71 - 70 31% -2  13 - 9 6 - 6 -0 +8 A- D- D+ -8 C- F C
 Sun, Feb 1 188 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 45% +2  13 - 10 6 - 7 -12 -8 F C- A+ -4 D+ D+ B-
 Thu, Feb 5 273 @Sacred Heart L 77 - 80 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 160 Marist L 66 - 69 40%
 Sun, Feb 15 234 @St. Peter's L 68 - 73 31%
 Fri, Feb 20 273 Sacred Heart W 80 - 77 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 188 @Quinnipiac L 73 - 80 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 177 Siena L 71 - 73 41%
 Sun, Mar 1 291 Mount St. Mary's W 74 - 70 64%
Totals 16 - 14 9 - 11 -6 -2 D C B- -4 D+ C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 3rd
4th 0.4 1.2 0.1 1.6 4th
5th 0.4 2.5 1.2 4.0 5th
6th 0.8 5.9 5.4 0.4 12.5 6th
7th 0.3 6.4 11.1 2.5 20.2 7th
8th 0.2 5.2 14.1 4.5 0.0 24.0 8th
9th 0.4 5.4 14.0 5.9 0.2 25.9 9th
10th 1.5 4.9 3.6 0.3 10.3 10th
11th 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 2.6 10.8 23.0 27.5 22.0 10.7 2.9 0.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 6.3% 6.3% 14.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 2.9% 4.5% 4.5% 15.4 0.1 0.1 2.7
11-9 10.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 10.2
10-10 22.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.8 0.1 0.6 21.3
9-11 27.5% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6 26.9
8-12 23.0% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 22.6
7-13 10.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-14 2.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 2.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 15.8 97.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%