Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -5.8 264
Results Rating -3.6 228
Consistency 0.17 271
Pace 67.6 206
Improvement +1.4 132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws
Shot Selection
Offense C- 226 D C C+ D- C-
Defense D+ 285 D+ C- D+ C+ F+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 164 D- 50% 346 -2.8 286
2 Pt. Jumpers 43% 117 C+ 40% 112 +1.5 95
Three Pointers 38% 247 C- 33% 236 -2.4 261
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.3 224 D -3.4 297
1st FG Attempt D 0.95 294
Second Chance B- 33.4% 89 D 0.94 307 C 0.31 164
Opponents' Steals C+ 9.0% 138
Other Turnovers C 7.2% 170
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 142
Freethrows D- 0.26 329 D+ 70% 267 D- 0.18 333
Total Offense C- -2.0 226

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 43% 267 F+ 14.9% 346
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 17% 292 C+ 4.4% 141
Three Pointers F 72% 355 D- 1.7% 335
Total D- 46% 337 D- 7.5% 339


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% 7 C 59% 198 +5.4 342
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 342 C+ 36% 110 -2.4 17
Three Pointers 38% 276 D+ 36% 280 -0.4 163
Shot Selection/Accuracy F+ +1.3 361 C- +1.1 221
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 264
Second Chance C- 30.9% 215 C- 1.08 255 C- 0.33 238
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.8% 227
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 270
Turnovers D+ 15.4% 260
Freethrows C+ 0.29 146 C- 73% 244 C+ 0.21 150
Total Defense D+ -3.8 285

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 96 C- 10.0% 210
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 38% 339 D+ 3.2% 277
Three Pointers F+ 91% 351 D 0.2% 336
Total C- 57% 217 C- 5.3% 195

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.4 170 17.4 211
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 216 0.17 172
Consistency 0.15 341 0.15 335
Improvement -0.3 204 +1.7 95

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile
Expected
50th Percentile
Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 280 265 244
Results Rating Rank 247 227 201
Conference Record 11 - 9 12 - 8 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 5 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4% 5% 4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round4% 4% 3%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Manhattan (Neutral) - 67.4% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 32 - 42 - 6
Quad 418 - 720 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA
2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 109 @Penn St. L 68 - 76 13% +2  54% 0 - 1 C -1 D -6 F F A+ B +4 B B+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 323 @NJIT W 74 - 53 56% +6  62% 1 - 1 B+ +14 D- -8 F B- F A+ +20 A A A-
 Mon, Nov 10 55 @Seton Hall L 59 - 82 5% -10  2% 1 - 2 D -10 D+ -3 C D- D+ D- -7 A- D- F
 Fri, Nov 14 335 Stonehill W 73 - 71 OT 80% +2  70% 2 - 2 D- -13 F -11 F F+ A C- -2 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Nov 16 313 Loyola Maryland W 85 - 82 74% +4  97% 3 - 2 D -10 C +1 D- A A F -11 F A B-
 Sat, Nov 22 296 @Le Moyne W 97 - 83 47% +12  94% 4 - 2 B +9 A+ +20 A+ B+ A F -11 C+ F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 190 Columbia L 77 - 106 47% -18  0% 4 - 3 F -34 C- -2 D C+ C F -32 F F F
 Sun, Nov 30 353 New Hampshire W 72 - 68 85% +0  58% 5 - 3 D- -13 D+ -3 C- C D F+ -9 D+ B F
 Fri, Dec 5 325 @Manhattan L 66 - 70 57% -4  4% 5 - 4 0 - 1 D- -11 F -18 F F F B+ +6 C A A
 Sun, Dec 7 173 @Merrimack L 63 - 74 23% -10  0% 5 - 5 0 - 2 D -9 D -5 C F D+ D -5 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 14 180 Monmouth W 73 - 65 44% +0  35% 6 - 5 C+ +4 B- +5 B- B A C -0 C B+ D+
 Thu, Dec 18 306 @Central Connecticut St. W 84 - 70 49% +14  82% 7 - 5 B +8 A- +9 A C+ C- C -0 A F F
 Mon, Dec 29 228 St. Peter's L 66 - 70 54% +1  51% 7 - 6 0 - 3 D -11 F+ -8 F C+ B- C- -3 C+ A D-
 Fri, Jan 2 340 @Canisius L 81 - 85 63% -4  4% 7 - 7 0 - 4 D- -13 B+ +8 D B B+ F -21 F F F
 Sun, Jan 4 332 @Niagara W 83 - 75 61% +5  93% 8 - 7 1 - 4 C -1 A+ +17 B B- A+ F -16 F C F
 Fri, Jan 9 356 Rider W 68 - 62 87% +8  93% 9 - 7 2 - 4 D- -12 D- -8 F A+ A D+ -4 F A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 14 325 Manhattan W 98 - 62 77% +20  98% 10 - 7 3 - 4 A +23 A- +11 A D+ B- A +11 A+ B B
 Sat, Jan 17 196 @Marist L 67 - 82 26% -13  0% 10 - 8 3 - 5 D- -14 C +1 F A- A- F -16 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 207 @Siena L 77 - 85 27% -8  5% 10 - 9 3 - 6 D+ -7 B+ +8 C A+ B F -16 F B- A-
 Thu, Jan 22 332 Niagara W 62 - 61 80% +3  75% 11 - 9 4 - 6 D- -14 F -16 F C- D- B- +2 C- A C-
 Sat, Jan 24 340 Canisius W 61 - 55 81% +7  87% 12 - 9 5 - 6 D -9 F -10 D D+ F B- +2 B D B+
 Fri, Jan 30 243 @Iona W 71 - 70 34% -2  25% 13 - 9 6 - 6 C -0 B- +5 A- D D+ D -5 C- F C-
 Sun, Feb 1 214 Quinnipiac L 65 - 72 51% +2  66% 13 - 10 6 - 7 D- -13 F+ -10 F D+ A D+ -3 D D- B
 Thu, Feb 5 287 @Sacred Heart W 92 - 87 44% +8  98% 14 - 10 7 - 7 C +1 A- +11 A- A- D+ F -10 C F F
 Sat, Feb 7 196 Marist W 63 - 60 48% +4  85% 15 - 10 8 - 7 C- -2 C- -0 C D A+ C -1 B- D B
 Sun, Feb 15 228 @St. Peter's L 74 - 83 31% -14  0% 15 - 11 8 - 8 D -10 C +1 C- A D F -11 F A- A-
 Fri, Feb 20 287 Sacred Heart W 78 - 68 67% +1  44% 16 - 11 9 - 8 C -0 D+ -4 B- F B B +4 B F+ C
 Sun, Feb 22 214 @Quinnipiac W 85 - 79 29% +2  68% 17 - 11 10 - 8 B- +6 A +14 C+ A+ C+ D- -8 D D- D-
 Fri, Feb 27 207 Siena W 72 - 58 49% +12  97% 18 - 11 11 - 8 B +9 D -6 C- A+ F A+ +15 A+ B+ F+
 Sun, Mar 1 270 Mount St. Mary's L 47 - 69 63% -14  0% 18 - 12 11 - 9 F -31 F -27 F C- F D+ -5 D- F B+
 Thu, Mar 5 325 Manhattan W 80 - 75 67%
Totals 19 - 12 12 - 9 -6 C- -2 D D C- D+ -4 C- D+ D-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- C+ C- D 39% 43% 38% C- D B- D C C+ D- D+ D- D+ C C+ D+ C- 47% 15% 38% F+ D+ C- C- C- D+ C+ C- C+
1.06 50% 40% 33% -3 0 0.95 33% 0.9 .31 16% .26 70% .18 1.14 59% 36% 36% +1 +1 1.07 31% 1.1 .33 15% .29 73% .19
Nov
3
Penn St. D B C F F 38% 13% 48% B- F C- F F A+ F A+ D B C+ B A- A- 52% 15% 33% D- B A D+ B+ F F+ A+ C+
0.98 65% 38% 21% -7 +1 0.90 27% 0.8 .20 10% .14 89% .13 1.10 59% 38% 29% -2 +2 1.02 21% 1.3 .27 10% .40 60% .24
Nov
8
NJIT D- F C+ C F 48% 16% 36% B- F B C- B- F B+ D- B- A+ A- A A+ A+ 27% 20% 54% C- A A+ A- A A- A+ B A+
0.99 33% 38% 33% -12 +1 0.80 39% 1.0 .39 21% .41 67% .27 0.71 47% 27% 23% -14 -1 0.73 16% 0.7 .12 21% .20 67% .14
Nov
10
Seton Hall D+ F C+ A+ C+ 30% 26% 44% D- C C- F D- D+ A A A+ D- A+ F A+ A+ 59% 16% 25% F A- C- F+ D- F F F F
0.86 23% 36% 42% -6 -1 0.88 29% 0.6 .18 25% .45 78% .35 1.20 43% 50% 23% -11 +2 0.84 37% 1.2 .44 10% .45 82% .37
Nov
14
Stonehill F F F F+ F 34% 20% 46% C- F F C+ F+ A B+ B+ A- C- B A+ F C- 49% 16% 35% D- D+ A+ B A+ F A- D B
0.94 40% 25% 30% -12 0 0.78 17% 1.1 .19 8% .34 75% .25 0.92 48% 10% 41% -6 +1 0.94 13% 0.8 .10 13% .16 73% .12
Nov
16
Loyola Maryland C D C+ F+ F+ 44% 25% 32% C D- B- A+ A A C F D- F F F B F 49% 13% 38% D F A A A B- C- D D+
1.19 56% 43% 28% -3 0 0.96 35% 1.4 .50 10% .30 58% .17 1.15 77% 57% 30% +9 +2 1.25 19% 0.8 .15 18% .27 75% .21
Nov
22
Le Moyne A+ A B+ A+ A+ 47% 25% 28% C- A+ A D+ B+ A B A+ A F B- A+ F+ B- 49% 11% 40% F C+ F F F B- F B+ F
1.37 68% 38% 47% +10 0 1.23 41% 1.0 .41 10% .36 87% .31 1.18 55% 0% 39% -3 +2 1.00 40% 1.6 .66 21% .54 67% .36
Nov
26
Columbia C- F B- C- D 38% 24% 38% D+ D A- D- C+ C D D- D- F D+ A+ F F 63% 2% 35% F F F F F F C+ F F+
1.08 45% 43% 32% -5 0 0.91 37% 0.8 .30 14% .26 69% .18 1.49 62% 0% 53% +11 +4 1.33 46% 1.9 .88 14% .26 94% .25
Nov
30
New Hampshire D+ F A A+ C 45% 24% 31% C- C- A F C D C F F+ F+ B- A B+ C 65% 8% 27% F D+ F+ A+ B F F B F
1.11 41% 50% 47% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.8 .31 17% .32 59% .19 1.05 52% 25% 29% -8 +4 0.94 32% 0.5 .17 11% .38 64% .24
Dec
5
Manhattan F F B- F F 25% 28% 47% F F B F F F F A+ F B+ B- F A- B- 52% 12% 36% F C B- A+ A A F C- F
0.91 50% 44% 26% -6 -2 0.86 43% 0.7 .28 21% .12 86% .10 0.97 50% 50% 28% -6 +2 0.94 24% 0.8 .18 21% .37 81% .30
Dec
7
Merrimack D D F A- C 38% 23% 38% C- C C F F D+ D+ F F+ D D+ D F F 40% 16% 44% B- F A A+ A+ D+ F D+ F
0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20 1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40
Dec
14
Monmouth B- F+ C- A+ B- 51% 21% 28% C+ B- A D B A F F F C C A B+ B 56% 13% 31% F C B B+ B+ D+ A+ D- A+
1.15 48% 36% 53% +3 +1 1.09 42% 0.9 .37 14% .09 20% .02 1.03 57% 29% 29% -4 +2 0.98 27% 0.9 .24 16% .09 80% .07
Dec
18
Central Connecticut St. A- C+ A A+ A 40% 15% 45% C- A C B C+ C- D D D C A+ B C- A+ 30% 22% 48% F+ A D F F F B- F+ C+
1.27 59% 50% 44% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.1 .34 14% .23 77% .17 1.06 31% 33% 35% -9 -1 0.83 30% 1.3 .40 12% .22 85% .19
Dec
29
St. Peter's F+ F D+ F+ F 48% 12% 40% B+ F D- A+ C+ B- D- C- D- C- D A+ A+ B 57% 10% 33% F C+ F A+ A D- A+ F A
0.98 40% 33% 29% -13 +2 0.81 30% 1.4 .41 18% .34 74% .25 1.04 61% 0% 21% -9 +3 0.90 42% 0.6 .23 15% .19 82% .16
Jan
2
Canisius B+ C- F D+ D- 43% 20% 37% C D A D B B+ A C+ A F A+ A+ F F 34% 16% 50% D- F D+ F F F F D+ F
1.21 59% 30% 32% -3 0 0.98 40% 0.9 .38 12% .39 74% .29 1.27 35% 25% 52% +4 0 1.10 29% 1.4 .40 9% .44 74% .33
Jan
4
Niagara A+ C+ A A- B 44% 25% 31% C B A- D+ B- A+ A A+ A+ F F F F F 59% 4% 37% F F D- A- C F A+ F A+
1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34 1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08
Jan
9
Rider D- F F F F 43% 13% 45% C- F B A+ A+ A A+ B A+ D+ D F B F 39% 33% 29% C- F B A+ A+ C- F A+ C-
1.09 30% 17% 24% -22 +1 0.62 39% 1.4 .52 10% .39 73% .28 0.99 58% 50% 29% +1 -2 1.02 26% 0.3 .08 16% .34 56% .19
Jan
14
Manhattan A- B+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 41% D A D+ C D+ B- A+ F B+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C A+ B B B B F C F
1.36 68% 57% 48% +17 -1 1.34 34% 1.1 .38 14% .36 64% .23 0.86 40% 38% 18% -15 -1 0.70 23% 1.0 .23 18% .41 79% .32
Jan
17
Marist C D C F F 30% 32% 38% D- F B- A+ A- A- A+ C+ A+ F F C- F F 27% 38% 36% A+ F F F F B F D+ F
1.01 53% 38% 16% -12 -2 0.74 33% 1.2 .40 15% .48 70% .34 1.23 75% 41% 44% +11 -3 1.18 37% 1.4 .52 20% .39 81% .32
Jan
19
Siena B+ A+ D+ F C+ 28% 28% 44% D- C D+ A+ A+ B D A+ C F F F F F 35% 35% 30% B+ F B C B- A- F F F
1.19 86% 36% 27% +3 -2 1.04 28% 1.8 .48 14% .23 85% .20 1.32 94% 56% 50% +26 -2 1.50 25% 1.0 .25 20% .37 84% .31
Jan
22
Niagara F F A D- F 41% 20% 39% C+ F C D+ C- D- F F F B- B F C- C+ 54% 8% 38% F C- B A+ A C- A D+ A-
0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09 0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24
Canisius F D B+ D D+ 43% 26% 31% D+ D A F D+ F C+ F D- B- B A+ A+ A 58% 8% 34% F B F A+ D B+ A+ A+ A+
1.00 56% 45% 31% -1 0 1.00 41% 0.7 .27 20% .33 56% .18 0.90 45% 25% 24% -14 +3 0.80 45% 0.7 .30 23% .17 38% .06
Jan
30
Iona B- B- B+ A A- 41% 15% 43% B- A- A+ F D D+ C F C- D A- B F C 40% 13% 47% D- C- F C- F C- F+ F F
1.14 63% 43% 40% +7 +1 1.17 51% 0.5 .24 18% .27 64% .18 1.12 47% 33% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 1.1 .38 18% .33 82% .27
Feb
1
Quinnipiac F+ F C- A- F 52% 21% 27% C+ F B+ F D+ A F+ F F D+ D F A+ D+ 62% 17% 21% F D B- F D- B A+ B- A+
0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12 1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11
Feb
5
Sacred Heart A- B+ A+ A A- 43% 11% 45% B- A- C- A+ A- D+ C+ B B- F B+ C- D+ C 30% 15% 56% C- C D F F F F A+ F+
1.29 70% 50% 42% +12 +2 1.28 31% 1.4 .45 15% .27 75% .20 1.22 50% 38% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.6 .49 11% .40 68% .27
Feb
7
Marist C- A+ C+ F C 27% 21% 52% C C D+ D D A+ F A D- C A F B B+ 48% 17% 35% F B- F B+ D B D+ F F+
1.03 77% 40% 24% -2 -1 0.96 26% 0.9 .23 13% .24 77% .19 0.98 43% 50% 29% -7 +1 0.90 35% 0.9 .32 20% .26 92% .24
Feb
15
St. Peter's C D+ F B+ D+ 58% 24% 18% C+ C- B A- A D A+ C A F C- C F F 45% 20% 35% D- F B- A A- A- F F F
1.08 54% 27% 38% -4 +1 0.96 41% 1.2 .50 22% .50 74% .37 1.21 56% 38% 57% +11 +1 1.25 32% 0.8 .25 22% .61 85% .52
Feb
20
Sacred Heart D+ D- A- A+ B+ 31% 28% 41% F B- F+ F F B B- F D B F+ A+ A- B+ 35% 13% 52% D B B- F F+ C B+ F+ B
1.13 53% 47% 50% +11 -1 1.20 24% 0.4 .11 12% .28 53% .15 0.99 67% 0% 30% -6 +1 0.92 24% 1.5 .35 19% .21 83% .18
Feb
22
Quinnipiac A C A+ F B- 49% 29% 22% D+ C+ A A A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ D- C+ C+ D D+ 51% 12% 37% F D F B- D- D- F A+ D
1.24 58% 64% 18% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.3 .54 16% .40 87% .35 1.16 54% 33% 37% -1 +2 1.04 43% 0.9 .40 13% .45 52% .24
Feb
27
Siena D D A D C- 42% 32% 26% D C- A+ A- A+ F D+ F F A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 27% 38% C- A+ A+ F B+ F+ A F A-
1.03 52% 50% 31% 0 -1 1.00 44% 1.1 .50 24% .25 46% .11 0.83 55% 27% 14% -15 -1 0.70 15% 1.5 .22 13% .20 83% .16
Mar
1
Mount St. Mary's F F F F F 36% 27% 38% D+ F B- F C- F A+ D- A- D+ D A C+ D 52% 8% 40% F D- C+ F F B+ A A+ A+
0.70 19% 25% 18% -27 -1 0.47 33% 0.9 .28 22% .44 70% .31 1.03 64% 25% 32% +1 +3 1.08 28% 1.5 .41 25% .20 50% .10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 67.4 67.4 5th
6th 20.4 20.4 6th
7th 12.2 12.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 32.6 67.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 67.4% 4.7% 4.7% 15.4 0.1 1.5 1.5 64.2
11-9 32.6% 3.8% 3.8% 15.9 0.1 1.1 31.4
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 15.6 95.6 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 15.4 3.1 48.9 48.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 11.7%
Lose Out 11.7%