Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.2#279
Expected Predictive Rating-3.0#214
Pace68.3#217
Improvement+0.1#179

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#234
First Shot-4.1#294
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#84
Layup/Dunks-3.6#303
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#56
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows-3.2#331
Improvement+1.8#59

Defense
Total Defense-3.7#299
First Shot-4.6#326
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#121
Layups/Dunks-6.1#353
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#18
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#164
Freethrows-1.4#284
Improvement-1.8#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.5% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 64.9% 74.3% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 51.3% 24.6%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.0% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 3.7% 2.0% 6.9%
First Four0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
First Round2.5% 3.1% 1.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 64.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 8
Quad 415 - 717 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 106 @Penn St. L 68-76 11%     0 - 1 -0.8 -3.1 +2.2
  Sat, Nov 8 352 @NJIT W 74-53 64%     1 - 1 +11.2 -5.1 +14.9
  Mon, Nov 10 52 @Seton Hall L 59-82 5%     1 - 2 -9.9 -3.3 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 14 336 Stonehill W 73-71 OT 77%     2 - 2 -11.8 -10.2 -1.8
  Sun, Nov 16 339 Loyola Maryland W 85-82 77%     3 - 2 -11.0 +2.2 -13.3
  Sat, Nov 22 314 @Le Moyne W 97-83 48%     4 - 2 +8.2 +17.0 -8.9
  Wed, Nov 26 129 Columbia L 77-106 31%     4 - 3 -30.2 +2.3 -32.0
  Sun, Nov 30 337 New Hampshire W 72-68 77%     5 - 3 -9.9 +1.2 -10.7
  Fri, Dec 5 319 @Manhattan L 66-70 51%     5 - 4 0 - 1 -10.3 -14.2 +4.0
  Sun, Dec 7 267 @Merrimack L 63-74 37%     5 - 5 0 - 2 -13.7 -4.3 -10.4
  Sun, Dec 14 230 Monmouth W 73-65 54%     6 - 5 +0.8 +4.0 -2.4
  Thu, Dec 18 277 @Central Connecticut St. W 84-70 38%     7 - 5 +10.8 +15.6 -3.9
  Mon, Dec 29 295 St. Peter's W 70-66 64%    
  Fri, Jan 2 341 @Canisius W 68-66 57%    
  Sun, Jan 4 353 @Niagara W 71-67 64%    
  Fri, Jan 9 348 Rider W 71-62 79%    
  Wed, Jan 14 319 Manhattan W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 162 @Marist L 64-73 21%    
  Mon, Jan 19 174 @Siena L 67-75 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 353 Niagara W 74-64 82%    
  Sat, Jan 24 341 Canisius W 71-63 76%    
  Fri, Jan 30 161 @Iona L 73-82 21%    
  Sun, Feb 1 157 Quinnipiac L 75-78 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 235 @Sacred Heart L 74-79 33%    
  Sat, Feb 7 162 Marist L 67-70 40%    
  Sun, Feb 15 295 @St. Peter's L 67-69 43%    
  Fri, Feb 20 235 Sacred Heart W 77-76 53%    
  Sun, Feb 22 157 @Quinnipiac L 72-81 20%    
  Fri, Feb 27 174 Siena L 70-72 42%    
  Sun, Mar 1 303 Mount St. Mary's W 75-71 66%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 2.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 6.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.4 3.9 3.3 0.6 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.3 4.5 1.2 0.1 12.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 5.6 5.6 1.4 0.1 14.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.7 1.9 0.1 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 4.6 5.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 13.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 3.3 4.3 1.8 0.2 10.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.2 3.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 7.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 0.7 0.1 4.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.5 4.9 8.2 11.6 14.6 15.2 14.6 11.0 8.2 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 71.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 34.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.9% 14.9% 14.9% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7
14-6 2.3% 13.0% 13.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.0
13-7 4.6% 10.5% 10.5% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.1
12-8 8.2% 7.1% 7.1% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.6
11-9 11.0% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 10.5
10-10 14.6% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.1 0.3 14.2
9-11 15.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.2 14.9
8-12 14.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 14.5
7-13 11.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 11.5
6-14 8.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.2
5-15 4.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.9
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 0.9% 0.9
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.7 97.1 0.0%