Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.4#281
Expected Predictive Rating-8.9#312
Pace69.6#131
Improvement-0.7#270

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#282
First Shot-4.0#304
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#138
Layup/Dunks-5.2#349
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#202
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#57
Freethrows-1.9#311
Improvement-0.4#254

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#257
First Shot-2.6#259
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#207
Layups/Dunks-6.6#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#98
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#62
Freethrows+0.1#180
Improvement-0.3#237
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 3.0% 7.7% 1.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 27.8% 13.6% 34.1%
First Four0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 30.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 72 - 13
Quad 46 - 87 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 131   Youngstown St. L 81-92 29%     0 - 1 -11.6 -7.2 -3.0
  Nov 12, 2022 147   St. Bonaventure W 84-80 OT 32%     1 - 1 +2.4 +10.8 -8.4
  Nov 16, 2022 180   Cleveland St. L 57-58 OT 37%     1 - 2 -4.1 -17.3 +13.2
  Nov 22, 2022 105   @ Cornell L 70-79 11%     1 - 3 -2.3 -2.2 -0.4
  Nov 27, 2022 183   @ Buffalo L 66-86 21%     1 - 4 -17.8 -12.2 -3.7
  Dec 02, 2022 151   @ Siena L 70-74 17%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -0.4 +1.8 -2.3
  Dec 04, 2022 85   @ Iona L 60-90 9%     1 - 6 0 - 2 -21.4 -11.2 -8.8
  Dec 10, 2022 104   @ Toledo L 68-69 11%     1 - 7 +5.9 -15.7 +21.7
  Dec 18, 2022 45   @ Penn St. L 67-97 4%     1 - 8 -16.8 +0.4 -17.8
  Dec 21, 2022 171   @ Florida Gulf Coast L 81-84 19%     1 - 9 -0.2 +13.6 -14.0
  Dec 31, 2022 196   Rider L 64-66 41%     1 - 10 0 - 3 -6.1 -8.7 +2.5
  Jan 02, 2023 290   Mount St. Mary's L 60-64 62%     1 - 11 0 - 4 -13.6 -13.4 -0.2
  Jan 06, 2023 294   @ Manhattan W 64-57 42%     2 - 11 1 - 4 +2.7 +1.4 +2.7
  Jan 08, 2023 263   @ St. Peter's W 67-60 OT 36%     3 - 11 2 - 4 +4.3 +4.6 +0.6
  Jan 13, 2023 316   Marist L 58-76 67%     3 - 12 2 - 5 -29.0 -14.4 -15.7
  Jan 15, 2023 151   Siena W 66-62 33%     4 - 12 3 - 5 +2.1 -6.8 +9.0
  Jan 20, 2023 232   @ Fairfield L 58-67 30%     4 - 13 3 - 6 -9.9 -8.8 -1.9
  Jan 22, 2023 133   @ Quinnipiac L 82-87 15%     4 - 14 3 - 7 -0.4 +7.4 -7.5
  Jan 29, 2023 294   Manhattan L 74-81 OT 63%     4 - 15 3 - 8 -16.7 -7.8 -8.6
  Feb 03, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 05, 2023 316   @ Marist L 66-67 45%    
  Feb 10, 2023 85   Iona L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 12, 2023 133   Quinnipiac L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 17, 2023 196   @ Rider L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 19, 2023 290   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-67 40%    
  Feb 24, 2023 263   St. Peter's W 65-63 58%    
  Feb 26, 2023 232   Fairfield W 66-65 51%    
  Mar 04, 2023 239   Niagara W 65-64 52%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 3.5 1.0 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.2 3.7 7.5 2.6 0.1 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.1 4.4 11.5 5.1 0.4 0.0 21.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.9 12.6 6.8 0.6 0.0 24.0 9th
10th 1.8 8.9 6.2 0.6 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 1.8 5.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 13.3 11th
Total 1.8 7.7 17.8 24.1 22.6 15.5 7.4 2.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-10 2.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
9-11 7.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.3
8-12 15.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 15.3
7-13 22.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 22.5
6-14 24.1% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 24.0
5-15 17.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 17.8
4-16 7.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.7
3-17 1.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1%
Lose Out 1.8% 0.1% 16.0 0.1