Canisius
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -11.7 #343
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #324
Pace 62.5 #333
Improvement +1.8 #112

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #349 F+ D D D+ D+
Defense #292 D C D+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 0.83 #365 -7.9 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #108 0.74 #203 +1.0 #115
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.99 #221 -0.3 #195
1st FG Attempt 0.88 #355 -7.2 #355
Freethrows 0.28 #266 68% #307 0.19 #292
Second Chance 27.7% #264 0.91 #326 0.25 #304
Turnovers 19.6% #326
Total Offense -7.7 #349

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #262 1.32 #347 -1.4 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #268 0.85 #316 +0.3 #165
Three Pointers 46% #41 1.03 #212 -3.1 #312
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #306 -4.3 #306
Freethrows 0.30 #176 72% #197 0.22 #174
Second Chance 32.4% #255 0.99 #124 0.32 #201
Turnovers 15.1% #295
Total Defense -4.0 #292

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #277 0.4% #197
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.9% #351 8.0% #321
Possession Length 19.2 #344 17.1 #162
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #273 0.19 #233
Improvement +1.3 #102 +0.4 #166

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 0.7% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 6.3% 34.5%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 40.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 30 - 60 - 10
Quad 410 - 1110 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 88 @Dayton L 48 - 88 4% -21  0 - 1 -31 -13 F C+ F -22 D- F F
 Sat, Nov 8 142 @St. Bonaventure L 70 - 89 8% -10  0 - 2 -15 +4 B+ F+ C+ -21 C F F+
 Wed, Nov 12 301 Mercyhurst W 58 - 55 48% +3  1 - 2 -8 -10 C F D- +3 C+ B C+
 Mon, Nov 17 98 @High Point L 50 - 93 4% -25  1 - 3 -35 -19 F C F -18 F D- F+
 Fri, Nov 21 337 Maryland Eastern Shore W 60 - 57 60% +3  2 - 3 -11 -5 C B- D -5 C D D+
 Sun, Nov 23 361 Binghamton W 75 - 66 76% +3  3 - 3 -10 +3 D A+ C- -12 C- F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 203 Buffalo L 53 - 71 28% -8  3 - 4 -24 -22 F D+ D+ -4 B- C D
 Fri, Dec 5 233 @St. Peter's L 57 - 69 16% -6  3 - 5 0 - 1 -13 -9 F D+ C -5 A- F D
 Sun, Dec 7 175 @Siena L 52 - 74 11% -14  3 - 6 0 - 2 -20 -16 F D F -6 D+ A F
 Sat, Dec 13 345 @Maine W 70 - 43 39% +16  4 - 6 +18 +4 B- C F+ +17 A+ C B+
 Tue, Dec 16 119 @Rhode Island L 45 - 62 6% -3  4 - 7 -11 -19 F F F +6 B+ A C
 Mon, Dec 22 113 @Duquesne L 59 - 103 6% -22  4 - 8 -38 -13 D+ C- F -23 F D F
 Fri, Jan 2 272 Fairfield W 85 - 81 41% +4  5 - 8 1 - 2 -5 +10 C B+ A+ -15 D+ D- F+
 Sun, Jan 4 274 Sacred Heart W 82 - 78 41% -4  6 - 8 2 - 2 -5 +4 F+ B D+ -9 D C- D
 Fri, Jan 9 327 @Manhattan W 70 - 64 34% -1  7 - 8 3 - 2 -1 -6 F F+ B +5 C A+ C
 Sun, Jan 11 231 @Iona L 48 - 74 16% -8  7 - 9 3 - 3 -27 -17 F D A+ -14 F F B+
 Wed, Jan 14 348 Niagara L 54 - 59 63% -3  7 - 10 3 - 4 -20 -14 F D- F+ -7 D A- D+
 Sat, Jan 17 290 Mount St. Mary's L 68 - 78 45% -1  7 - 11 3 - 5 -20 -4 B- F C -16 F C- C-
 Thu, Jan 22 274 @Sacred Heart L 66 - 69 21% +2  7 - 12 3 - 6 -6 -10 C- F C- +4 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @Fairfield L 55 - 61 21% -7  7 - 13 3 - 7 -9 -13 F C- F +3 D+ B- B+
 Fri, Jan 30 161 Marist L 86 - 88 OT 21% +1  7 - 14 3 - 8 -5 +12 A+ B B -18 F B C-
 Sun, Feb 1 175 Siena L 63 - 78 23% -8  7 - 15 3 - 9 -19 -2 C C- F -20 F F D
 Tue, Feb 3 348 @Niagara L 62 - 65 40%
 Thu, Feb 5 186 @Quinnipiac L 64 - 77 11%
 Fri, Feb 13 231 Iona L 66 - 71 34%
 Sun, Feb 15 327 Manhattan W 73 - 71 56%
 Fri, Feb 20 351 @Rider L 66 - 68 42%
 Sun, Feb 22 290 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 70 25%
 Fri, Feb 27 200 Merrimack L 61 - 67 28%
 Sun, Mar 1 186 Quinnipiac L 67 - 74 26%
Totals 10 - 20 6 - 14 -12 -8 F+ D D -4 D C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 1.0 0.0 2.2 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 3.4 0.5 6.4 9th
10th 0.6 5.9 8.5 2.4 0.0 17.5 10th
11th 2.7 14.8 17.3 5.4 0.3 40.6 11th
12th 1.2 9.7 10.0 2.4 0.1 23.3 12th
13th 3.8 4.4 1.1 0.0 9.3 13th
Total 4.9 16.8 26.5 25.8 16.4 7.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.3% 0.3
9-11 2.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.1
8-12 7.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 7.2
7-13 16.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.3
6-14 25.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 25.7
5-15 26.5% 26.5
4-16 16.8% 16.8
3-17 4.9% 4.9
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.9%