Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-13.1#352
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#346
Pace63.3#331
Improvement-3.3#343

Offense
Total Offense-7.9#349
First Shot-3.4#271
After Offensive Rebound-4.5#360
Layup/Dunks+1.4#127
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#171
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#261
Freethrows-2.6#318
Improvement-1.1#267

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#329
First Shot-3.9#308
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#284
Layups/Dunks+2.9#76
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#201
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#356
Freethrows-0.4#207
Improvement-2.3#333
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.7% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 3.5% 7.1% 1.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.8% 26.0% 47.3%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Home) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 118 @Duquesne L 63-83 5%     -17.0   0 - 1 -13.9 -8.5 -5.2
  Sat, Nov 8 363 @Binghamton W 67-59 49%     0.0   1 - 1 -4.9 -6.5 +2.4
  Mon, Nov 10 345 Delaware St. W 68-57 58%     7.7   2 - 1 -4.1 +3.4 -5.6
  Mon, Nov 17 310 @Le Moyne L 68-74 24%     -3.7   2 - 2 -11.6 -7.2 -4.6
  Fri, Nov 21 5 @Duke L 42-100 0.3%    -30.0   2 - 3 -33.1 -14.8 -23.0
  Sat, Nov 22 262 Howard L 70-80 24%     4.0   2 - 4 -15.8 -8.8 -6.3
  Sat, Nov 29 277 Detroit Mercy L 66-70 36%     -5.7   2 - 5 -13.3 -6.9 -6.6
  Fri, Dec 5 183 @Siena L 54-83 9%     -21.9   2 - 6 0 - 1 -27.5 -12.7 -16.8
  Sun, Dec 7 285 @St. Peter's L 43-71 19%     -13.3   2 - 7 0 - 2 -31.7 -23.0 -13.1
  Sat, Dec 13 361 @Morgan St. L 73-81 48%     -4.5   2 - 8 -20.5 -3.7 -17.1
  Mon, Dec 15 47 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58-84 1%     -8.2   2 - 9 -12.0 -1.6 -13.2
  Fri, Jan 2 269 Sacred Heart L 70-74 35%    
  Sun, Jan 4 289 Fairfield L 68-71 38%    
  Fri, Jan 9 178 @Iona L 65-80 8%    
  Sun, Jan 11 311 @Manhattan L 69-76 24%    
  Wed, Jan 14 346 @Canisius L 61-65 35%    
  Mon, Jan 19 291 Mount St. Mary's L 66-69 39%    
  Thu, Jan 22 289 @Fairfield L 65-74 20%    
  Sat, Jan 24 269 @Sacred Heart L 67-77 17%    
  Fri, Jan 30 183 Siena L 62-71 22%    
  Sun, Feb 1 157 Marist L 58-68 18%    
  Tue, Feb 3 346 Canisius W 64-62 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 158 @Quinnipiac L 63-79 7%    
  Fri, Feb 13 311 Manhattan L 72-73 44%    
  Sun, Feb 15 178 Iona L 68-77 21%    
  Fri, Feb 20 291 @Mount St. Mary's L 63-72 20%    
  Sun, Feb 22 348 @Rider L 62-66 36%    
  Fri, Feb 27 158 Quinnipiac L 66-76 19%    
  Sun, Mar 1 249 Merrimack L 62-67 31%    
Projected Record 7 - 22 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 2.8 2.7 0.6 0.1 6.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 4.5 1.0 0.1 11.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 2.7 6.9 6.3 2.4 0.2 19.2 11th
12th 0.2 1.4 5.5 8.8 6.4 2.6 0.2 0.0 25.0 12th
13th 1.2 4.1 8.3 7.8 4.8 1.4 0.2 27.8 13th
Total 1.2 4.3 9.8 13.8 16.4 15.9 14.2 10.5 6.1 4.3 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 15.4% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 0.1
13-7 0.2% 0.2
12-8 0.5% 10.2% 10.2% 16.0 0.1 0.4
11-9 0.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
10-10 1.9% 1.9
9-11 4.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.3
8-12 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
7-13 10.5% 10.5
6-14 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-15 15.9% 15.9
4-16 16.4% 16.4
3-17 13.8% 13.8
2-18 9.8% 9.8
1-19 4.3% 4.3
0-20 1.2% 1.2
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%