Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#239
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#218
Pace59.5#356
Improvement+0.4#147

Offense
Total Offense-2.8#264
First Shot-1.8#249
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#258
Layup/Dunks-0.5#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#210
Freethrows-0.6#229
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#214
First Shot-2.6#257
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#65
Layups/Dunks-3.1#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#27
Freethrows-2.3#323
Improvement+0.2#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 1.9% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 70.5% 79.5% 50.2%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 79.5% 50.2%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.9%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.8%
First Round1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 69.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 32 - 33 - 7
Quad 411 - 714 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 31   @ Maryland L 49-71 5%     0 - 1 -6.9 -4.9 -6.9
  Nov 12, 2022 295   @ Bucknell L 50-68 52%     0 - 2 -22.5 -16.1 -9.6
  Nov 18, 2022 338   Central Arkansas W 73-64 75%     1 - 2 -1.9 -2.9 +1.3
  Nov 19, 2022 199   Stetson W 66-62 40%     2 - 2 +2.5 -0.3 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2022 72   @ St. John's L 70-78 10%     2 - 3 +2.3 -2.8 +5.8
  Dec 02, 2022 85   @ Iona L 56-78 12%     2 - 4 0 - 1 -13.4 -11.1 -2.8
  Dec 04, 2022 133   @ Quinnipiac W 64-60 21%     3 - 4 1 - 1 +8.6 +7.0 +2.4
  Dec 11, 2022 302   Eastern Michigan W 67-60 73%     4 - 4 -3.5 -3.0 +0.6
  Dec 18, 2022 320   @ NJIT L 53-62 59%     4 - 5 -15.3 -19.9 +4.4
  Dec 21, 2022 324   Binghamton W 73-67 78%     5 - 5 -6.0 -4.5 -1.3
  Dec 31, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's W 67-55 70%     6 - 5 2 - 1 +2.4 +4.1 +0.4
  Jan 02, 2023 196   Rider W 61-59 51%     7 - 5 3 - 1 -2.1 -9.1 +7.2
  Jan 06, 2023 232   @ Fairfield W 77-69 OT 38%     8 - 5 4 - 1 +7.1 +0.2 +6.3
  Jan 08, 2023 294   @ Manhattan L 59-64 51%     8 - 6 4 - 2 -9.3 -7.8 -2.2
  Jan 13, 2023 151   Siena L 64-70 42%     8 - 7 4 - 3 -7.9 -1.7 -6.9
  Jan 15, 2023 316   Marist L 64-66 75%     8 - 8 4 - 4 -13.0 +0.8 -14.2
  Jan 20, 2023 196   @ Rider L 62-65 30%     8 - 9 4 - 5 -1.7 +0.4 -2.6
  Jan 22, 2023 263   @ St. Peter's W 59-57 45%     9 - 9 5 - 5 -0.7 -0.8 +0.5
  Jan 27, 2023 294   Manhattan W 68-62 71%     10 - 9 6 - 5 -3.7 -5.2 +1.8
  Feb 03, 2023 281   Canisius W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 05, 2023 151   @ Siena L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 10, 2023 133   Quinnipiac L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 12, 2023 85   Iona L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 17, 2023 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 61-60 50%    
  Feb 19, 2023 316   @ Marist W 62-60 55%    
  Feb 24, 2023 232   Fairfield W 61-59 60%    
  Feb 26, 2023 263   St. Peter's W 61-57 66%    
  Mar 04, 2023 281   @ Canisius L 64-65 48%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.2 3.2 0.2 13.1 4th
5th 0.2 3.8 13.5 16.6 7.6 0.9 0.0 42.6 5th
6th 0.1 2.9 10.5 9.4 2.9 0.2 0.0 26.0 6th
7th 0.7 4.0 3.2 0.6 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 2.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.9 9th
10th 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.4 2.7 8.7 17.7 23.9 22.8 15.0 6.9 1.8 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 66.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.2% 6.4% 6.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 1.8% 4.7% 4.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
13-7 6.9% 3.2% 3.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 6.6
12-8 15.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.6
11-9 22.8% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 22.3
10-10 23.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3 23.5
9-11 17.7% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2 17.4
8-12 8.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 8.7
7-13 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 15.6 0.1 0.5 1.1 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 6.4% 14.7 2.1 4.3
Lose Out 0.4%