Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.0#180
Expected Predictive Rating+2.0#150
Pace62.6#327
Improvement-0.3#200

Offense
Total Offense-0.9#200
First Shot+3.2#90
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#350
Layup/Dunks+1.6#119
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#82
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#190
Freethrows+0.6#137
Improvement-1.0#282

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#173
First Shot+2.0#112
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#301
Layups/Dunks+5.6#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#269
Freethrows-0.4#208
Improvement+0.7#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.4% 14.9% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.4 14.7
.500 or above 76.3% 86.9% 66.3%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 88.1% 67.2%
Conference Champion 12.3% 18.9% 6.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.9% 3.6%
First Four0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
First Round11.1% 14.6% 7.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Home) - 48.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 414 - 618 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 37   @ Xavier L 60-63 9%     0 - 1 +10.9 -4.0 +14.9
  Nov 12, 2021 25   @ Ohio St. L 74-84 6%     0 - 2 +6.4 +7.6 -1.3
  Nov 19, 2021 322   SIU Edwardsville W 70-60 78%     1 - 2 +0.8 -0.5 +2.2
  Nov 20, 2021 329   St. Thomas L 67-76 82%     1 - 3 -19.9 -6.4 -14.8
  Nov 21, 2021 279   @ Youngstown St. W 58-53 59%     2 - 3 +1.7 -10.9 +13.2
  Nov 29, 2021 111   @ Colgate W 70-59 23%     3 - 3 +17.6 +3.8 +14.8
  Dec 03, 2021 135   Monmouth L 69-70 49%    
  Dec 05, 2021 237   Fairfield W 67-61 71%    
  Dec 08, 2021 260   @ Eastern Michigan W 69-68 56%    
  Dec 18, 2021 298   Albany W 67-61 73%    
  Dec 21, 2021 323   @ Binghamton W 68-63 69%    
  Dec 31, 2021 294   @ Quinnipiac W 71-68 64%    
  Jan 02, 2022 253   @ Manhattan W 64-63 54%    
  Jan 09, 2022 294   Quinnipiac W 74-65 80%    
  Jan 14, 2022 284   Canisius W 74-65 79%    
  Jan 16, 2022 106   @ Iona L 62-70 23%    
  Jan 21, 2022 202   St. Peter's W 65-61 64%    
  Jan 23, 2022 266   Rider W 69-61 76%    
  Jan 28, 2022 275   @ Siena W 65-63 58%    
  Jan 30, 2022 135   @ Monmouth L 67-73 29%    
  Feb 04, 2022 253   Manhattan W 67-60 73%    
  Feb 06, 2022 106   Iona L 65-67 43%    
  Feb 12, 2022 237   @ Fairfield L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 14, 2022 255   @ Marist W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 19, 2022 284   @ Canisius W 71-68 59%    
  Feb 25, 2022 266   @ Rider W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 27, 2022 202   @ St. Peter's L 62-64 44%    
  Mar 03, 2022 275   Siena W 68-60 77%    
  Mar 05, 2022 255   Marist W 67-60 72%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.4 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 12.3 1st
2nd 0.2 0.8 2.9 5.0 4.6 2.0 0.5 0.0 16.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.5 6.5 4.3 1.1 0.2 19.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.5 5.7 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.1 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 11.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.3 3.4 0.9 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.1 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.5 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.0 2.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.1 4.3 5.9 8.1 10.0 12.5 12.8 12.0 11.0 8.4 5.6 2.9 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 96.9% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 83.8% 2.4    1.7 0.7 0.0
16-4 60.8% 3.4    1.9 1.3 0.2
15-5 31.4% 2.6    1.2 1.2 0.3
14-6 12.3% 1.4    0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 2.8% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 7.1 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 50.0% 33.9% 16.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 24.4%
19-1 0.4% 58.8% 58.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.6% 33.7% 33.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.0
17-3 2.9% 35.4% 35.4% 13.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.9
16-4 5.6% 26.8% 26.8% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.1
15-5 8.4% 20.9% 20.9% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 6.7
14-6 11.0% 15.5% 15.5% 14.5 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.2 9.3
13-7 12.0% 12.6% 12.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 10.5
12-8 12.8% 11.1% 11.1% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.4 11.4
11-9 12.5% 7.1% 7.1% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 11.6
10-10 10.0% 3.9% 3.9% 15.7 0.1 0.3 9.6
9-11 8.1% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 7.9
8-12 5.9% 2.6% 2.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.8
7-13 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.2
6-14 2.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 2.1
5-15 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 11.4% 11.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.3 4.0 2.1 88.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 12.0 4.8 95.2