Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -11.5 336
Expected Predictive Rating -13.3 344
Pace 58.3 365
Improvement +4.2 39

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D 325 C- F D+ F+ B
Defense D 318 D D+ D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 55 D 53% 307 +0.4 160
2 Pt. Jumpers 33% 229 C- 36% 249 -2.0 275
Three Pointers 40% 196 C 34% 173 -0.1 184
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +0.9 65 D+ -2.5 270
1st FG Attempt C- 0.99 226
Second Chance F 21.4% 354 F+ 0.85 355 F 0.18 362
Turnovers D+ 18.6% 298
Freethrows F 0.22 362 C- 71% 216 F+ 0.16 357
Total Offense D -6.3 325

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 52% 123 C- 12.0% 242
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 329 D+ 6.5% 274
Three Pointers B- 88% 112 B 0.4% 70
Total C+ 58% 124 D+ 6.4% 268

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 259 D+ 61% 273 -0.2 168
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 196 D- 43% 337 +0.9 260
Three Pointers 44% 91 D+ 36% 274 +2.9 308
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 148 D +3.6 312
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 294
Second Chance D 33.6% 307 C- 1.06 238 D+ 0.36 294
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 277
Freethrows C 0.30 182 F 78% 359 C- 0.23 237
Total Defense D -5.2 318

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 43% 71 D+ 8.8% 260
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 28% 239 C- 4.2% 213
Three Pointers D+ 88% 289 C+ 1.2% 106
Total C 56% 176 D+ 4.6% 265

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.1 362 17.3 185
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 347 0.19 232
Improvement +3.3 #44 +0.9 #131

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 8% 1% 11%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Mount St. Mary's (Away) - 25.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 7
Quad 47 - 157 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 111 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 F+ -10 D- F F D+ -3 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 359 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 56% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -8 F D C- B +4 A F F
 Mon, Nov 10 361 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 78% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -9 C- -1 A- F B+ D -6 C F F
 Mon, Nov 17 296 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 26% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D -6 C+ F D D -5 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -31 F -16 F C F F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 215 Howard L 70 - 80 21% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -13 F+ -9 C- B F D+ -4 C- C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 254 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 37% -6  5% 2 - 5 D- -12 F+ -10 D+ F B- C- -3 A- D- D
 Fri, Dec 5 188 @Siena L 54 - 83 12% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -17 F F A+ F -13 F D- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 228 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -25 F F F F+ -8 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 352 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 48% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -19 D -5 D+ D B F -14 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 45 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -11 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -9 F B- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 284 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 44% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D- -6 B+ F D+ C -0 A F A
 Sun, Jan 4 267 Fairfield L 75 - 83 41% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -17 B- +5 A F C+ F -24 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 252 @Iona L 53 - 71 19% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -15 F F A F+ -8 D F+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 319 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 33% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -16 C -0 A- F D+ F -17 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 345 @Canisius W 59 - 54 43% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -5 D- -6 D F D+ B- +3 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 288 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 45% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -20 F -12 F A+ F F -10 D+ B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 267 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 21% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -4 F -13 D+ F D- A +9 B- D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 284 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 24% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -6 B+ B F C+ +1 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 188 Siena L 79 - 82 26% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D+ -8 A- +10 A+ C+ C+ F -18 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 185 Marist L 46 - 58 26% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -17 F -20 F F+ F C+ +1 B+ B F
 Tue, Feb 3 345 Canisius W 65 - 56 66% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -7 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -3 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 192 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 12% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -0 D- -7 C- D+ F A- +7 B A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 13 319 Manhattan L 69 - 76 55% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -20 F+ -8 B F D F -12 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 252 Iona W 70 - 68 37% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -6 B+ +8 A+ F A- F -14 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 288 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 69 25%
 Sun, Feb 22 355 @Rider W 66 - 65 50%
 Fri, Feb 27 192 Quinnipiac L 65 - 71 27%
 Sun, Mar 1 165 Merrimack L 59 - 67 22%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 D -6 F D+ B D -5 C C- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D C- C D+ 43% 33% 40% B C- F F+ F D+ F C- F+ D D+ D- D+ D 36% 20% 44% C D D C- D+ D+ C F C-
1.00 53% 36% 34% -3 +1 0.99 21% 0.8 .18 19% .22 71% .16 1.16 61% 43% 36% +4 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 78% .17
Nov
3		 Duquesne F+ C+ B- F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F+ F F F A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% B- F B- F D A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D D+ D C- C- C- C- B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D- A F D F F C A- B-
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D D A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A- F F F B+ D- F+ F+ D A D B+ C+ 36% 26% 38% F+ C C+ F F F A- C+ B+
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D F F A+ C+ 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D+ F D D- B+ D D D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B F D+ B C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D+ F F+ F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A+ B F A+ D+ A+ D+ A F C C 45% 12% 43% D C- B- D- C- C- F B+ F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F+ A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B- F F F C- C+ D A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D+ D- D F C F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A+ F F F F D+ F+ F F 37% 23% 40% D F D+ D- D- D- B- B- B
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D+ F D F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D+ D- C+ F F D- B+ D B
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D C- A D- D 50% 8% 42% B D+ F A+ D B F B- F F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B- F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B- C+ C- A B-
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D- C C+ A+ B+ 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ D+ F+ D+ C C A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A F A F D- F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B- A- A+ A A 59% 4% 37% A A D F F C+ F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +8 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D F F+ F F A F A F+ F+ F F A- D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A- F+ D C F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C D- A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +11 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D- D+ F B- D- 56% 17% 27% B+ D D- F F D+ A- B+ A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- F+ F+ F
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F C- F D F A F D- C- 51% 9% 40% F D+ F+ A+ B- F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D- 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F D- F C F A A F B B- 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B+ A A+ A
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B+ 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C+ F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena A- C- A A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ C+ D F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C+ F F+ F F F+ F C+ C C- A+ B- 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B F D F D-
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F F F F F B+ F D+ D- F A+ C- 40% 17% 44% F+ D+ A+ F C+ F A+ F B+
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac D- B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D C- B- F+ D+ F D- D+ D- A- A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ B+ D- D- F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D B 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D B+ B+ A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B F+ B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona B+ C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F A- B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A- C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
10th 0.2 0.5 0.7 10th
11th 13.4 38.3 27.2 8.1 0.3 87.3 11th
12th 8.7 2.7 0.1 11.5 12th
13th 0.3 0.3 13th
Total 22.4 41.0 27.3 8.3 1.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.0
7-13 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
6-14 27.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 27.3
5-15 41.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 41.0
4-16 22.4% 22.4
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 22.4%