Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.6#308
Expected Predictive Rating-6.8#277
Pace64.0#313
Improvement+1.8#67

Offense
Total Offense-3.5#270
First Shot+1.6#133
After Offensive Rebound-5.1#362
Layup/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#235
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#28
Freethrows-2.1#291
Improvement-1.0#261

Defense
Total Defense-4.0#306
First Shot-6.2#350
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#46
Layups/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#263
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#356
Freethrows+0.3#170
Improvement+2.8#20
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 5.1% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 25.7% 36.0% 17.1%
.500 or above in Conference 46.7% 60.0% 35.6%
Conference Champion 4.9% 8.3% 2.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.0% 4.4% 12.8%
First Four2.1% 2.6% 1.7%
First Round2.6% 3.7% 1.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Merrimack (Home) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 413 - 1113 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2024 27   @ Michigan St. L 60-96 2%     0 - 1 -19.7 -5.0 -14.3
  Nov 10, 2024 298   @ Detroit Mercy L 78-84 OT 37%     0 - 2 -10.2 -2.3 -7.5
  Nov 19, 2024 267   @ Bowling Green L 68-76 33%     0 - 3 -11.0 +1.6 -13.5
  Nov 21, 2024 110   @ Kent St. L 73-76 10%     0 - 4 +3.6 +11.6 -8.3
  Nov 29, 2024 322   Binghamton W 65-62 55%     1 - 4 -6.0 -3.2 -2.3
  Nov 30, 2024 231   @ Lafayette L 47-59 26%     1 - 5 -12.8 -20.6 +7.0
  Dec 01, 2024 342   LIU Brooklyn W 60-52 65%     2 - 5 -3.5 -8.7 +6.4
  Dec 06, 2024 302   Siena W 69-68 61%     3 - 5 1 - 0 -9.3 +4.0 -13.2
  Dec 08, 2024 222   Merrimack L 63-64 45%    
  Dec 14, 2024 339   St. Francis (PA) W 74-68 72%    
  Dec 21, 2024 88   @ St. Bonaventure L 58-75 6%    
  Dec 29, 2024 334   Le Moyne W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 05, 2025 254   @ Mount St. Mary's L 65-70 31%    
  Jan 10, 2025 209   St. Peter's L 63-65 42%    
  Jan 12, 2025 257   Rider W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 283   @ Fairfield L 67-71 35%    
  Jan 18, 2025 313   @ Manhattan L 71-73 41%    
  Jan 23, 2025 242   Marist L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 25, 2025 269   Sacred Heart W 72-71 56%    
  Jan 31, 2025 345   @ Canisius W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 06, 2025 222   @ Merrimack L 60-67 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 245   @ Quinnipiac L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 12, 2025 345   Canisius W 74-66 75%    
  Feb 14, 2025 254   Mount St. Mary's W 68-67 52%    
  Feb 21, 2025 302   @ Siena L 64-67 39%    
  Feb 23, 2025 242   @ Marist L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 28, 2025 274   Iona W 69-67 57%    
  Mar 02, 2025 313   Manhattan W 74-70 62%    
  Mar 06, 2025 209   @ St. Peter's L 60-68 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 257   @ Rider L 64-69 32%    
Projected Record 13 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 6.0 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.6 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.7 3.3 1.0 0.1 7.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.9 4.2 1.6 0.1 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.4 2.9 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 4.3 0.6 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.2 2.2 5.2 1.6 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.1 0.2 0.0 9.2 9th
10th 0.1 1.0 3.9 3.9 0.6 0.0 9.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 3.7 1.1 0.0 9.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.7 3.2 1.1 0.1 8.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.9 13th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.0 8.0 10.2 12.1 13.5 12.7 11.0 8.4 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 95.9% 0.5    0.4 0.1
16-4 85.7% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
15-5 60.5% 1.3    0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 32.2% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
13-7 7.8% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.9% 4.9 2.6 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.1% 32.4% 32.4% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.5% 22.6% 22.6% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
16-4 1.1% 21.1% 21.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
15-5 2.2% 18.6% 18.6% 15.6 0.2 0.3 1.8
14-6 4.1% 11.8% 11.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 3.6
13-7 6.4% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.1 0.6 5.7
12-8 8.4% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.6 7.8
11-9 11.0% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.5
10-10 12.7% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 12.4
9-11 13.5% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.2 13.3
8-12 12.1% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 11.9
7-13 10.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
5-15 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.1 96.3 0.0%