Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.0 339
Results Rating -14.1 349
Pace 59.1 365
Improvement +3.0 70

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D- 337 C- F D F+ B-
Defense D 313 D D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 58 D+ 53% 295 +0.6 156
2 Pt. Jumpers 34% 225 C- 36% 249 -1.9 275
Three Pointers 40% 195 C 34% 204 -0.5 198
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.8 72 D+ -2.6 272
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 227
Second Chance F 21.2% 356 F 0.83 360 F 0.18 364
Turnovers D 19.4% 325
Freethrows F+ 0.23 357 C- 71% 222 F+ 0.17 355
Total Offense D- -7.0 337

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots B- 53% 102 C- 11.8% 233
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 14% 328 D+ 6.7% 285
Three Pointers B- 88% 83 B 0.4% 59
Total B- 59% 101 D+ 6.3% 267

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 236 D+ 62% 288 +0.5 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 185 D 42% 307 +0.6 238
Three Pointers 43% 115 D+ 36% 276 +2.3 291
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 150 D +3.5 311
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 294
Second Chance D 33.9% 312 C- 1.06 229 D 0.36 297
Turnovers D+ 15.2% 277
Freethrows C 0.30 174 F 78% 359 C- 0.23 235
Total Defense D -5.0 313

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 45% 114 D+ 8.1% 293
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 30% 272 C- 3.7% 247
Three Pointers D+ 87% 268 C+ 1.1% 116
Total C 56% 191 D+ 4.2% 293

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 20.0 362 17.1 156
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 343 0.19 241
Improvement +1.7 #106 +1.3 #110

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 346 338 329
Results Rating Rank 352 349 339
Conference Record 4 - 16 4 - 16 6 - 14
Conference Finish 12 11 11
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 10% 0% 14%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Quinnipiac (Home) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 47 - 157 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 110 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 5% -17  0% 0 - 1 D- -14 F -10 D- F F D+ -3 F D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 8 359 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 55% +0  43% 1 - 1 D+ -5 F+ -9 F D C- B +4 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 361 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 78% +8  90% 2 - 1 D -9 C- -1 A- F B+ D -6 C- F F
 Mon, Nov 17 300 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 26% -4  7% 2 - 2 D -11 D- -6 C+ F D D -5 F+ A+ C-
 Fri, Nov 21 2 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  0% 2 - 3 F -30 F -16 F C F F -19 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 200 Howard L 70 - 80 18% +4  75% 2 - 4 D- -12 F+ -9 C- B- F C- -3 C C- C-
 Sat, Nov 29 254 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 35% -6  5% 2 - 5 D- -12 F+ -10 D+ F B C- -2 A- F+ D
 Fri, Dec 5 190 @Siena L 54 - 83 11% -22  0% 2 - 6 0 - 1 F -28 F -18 F F A+ F -12 F D- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 237 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 16% -13  0% 2 - 7 0 - 2 F -29 F -25 F F F F+ -9 D- F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 350 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 44% -4  6% 2 - 8 F -19 D -5 D+ D+ B- F -14 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 46 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  6% 2 - 9 D- -12 D -5 D F+ B- F+ -9 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 285 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 43% +9  99% 3 - 9 1 - 2 D+ -7 D -6 B+ F D+ C -1 A F A
 Sun, Jan 4 257 Fairfield L 75 - 83 36% -5  6% 3 - 10 1 - 3 F+ -16 B- +5 A F C F -23 F F F
 Fri, Jan 9 248 @Iona L 53 - 71 17% -16  1% 3 - 11 1 - 4 F -20 F -14 F F A D- -8 D D- D
 Sun, Jan 11 319 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 32% +1  52% 3 - 12 1 - 5 F+ -16 C- -1 A- F D+ F -17 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 345 @Canisius W 59 - 54 42% +3  76% 4 - 12 2 - 5 C- -5 D- -6 D+ F D B- +2 B+ C- C-
 Mon, Jan 19 282 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 41% -1  54% 4 - 13 2 - 6 F -20 F -11 F A+ F F -10 D+ B F
 Thu, Jan 22 257 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 18% -3  8% 4 - 14 2 - 7 C- -3 F -13 D+ F D- A +9 B- D+ B+
 Sat, Jan 24 285 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 23% +5  95% 4 - 15 2 - 8 D+ -5 D -5 B+ B F C +0 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 190 Siena L 79 - 82 25% -3  19% 4 - 16 2 - 9 D+ -8 B+ +9 A+ C+ C+ F -17 F D C-
 Sun, Feb 1 183 Marist L 46 - 58 24% -5  2% 4 - 17 2 - 10 F+ -17 F -20 F F F C+ +1 B+ B F
 Tue, Feb 3 345 Canisius W 65 - 56 64% +8  92% 5 - 17 3 - 10 D+ -7 C- -1 A+ F F D+ -4 D+ C+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 206 @Quinnipiac L 55 - 56 12% -5  12% 5 - 18 3 - 11 C -1 D- -8 D+ D+ F A- +7 B A+ B+
 Fri, Feb 13 319 Manhattan L 69 - 76 55% -5  11% 5 - 19 3 - 12 F -20 F+ -9 B F D F -12 F F C
 Sun, Feb 15 248 Iona W 70 - 68 34% +1  55% 6 - 19 4 - 12 D+ -6 B+ +9 A+ F A- F -14 C+ F F
 Fri, Feb 20 282 @Mount St. Mary's L 63 - 76 22% -7  11% 6 - 20 4 - 13 F+ -17 F -11 F F+ F D -5 D+ F C-
 Sun, Feb 22 355 @Rider L 62 - 67 49% +0  54% 6 - 21 4 - 14 F+ -17 F -14 B- F F D+ -3 D B- C
 Fri, Feb 27 206 Quinnipiac L 65 - 71 27%
 Sun, Mar 1 163 Merrimack L 59 - 68 21%
Totals 6 - 23 4 - 16 -12 D- -7 B D+ B- D -5 C C- F+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D- D+ C- C D+ 43% 34% 40% B- C- F F F D F+ C- F+ D D+ D D+ D 37% 20% 43% C D D C- D D+ C F C-
0.99 53% 36% 34% -3 +1 0.98 21% 0.8 .18 19% .23 71% .17 1.16 62% 42% 36% +3 0 1.09 34% 1.1 .36 15% .30 78% .18
Nov
3		 Duquesne F C+ C+ F F+ 47% 23% 30% B- D- F F F F A+ A- A+ D+ F A+ F F 39% 12% 49% C+ F B F D+ A+ A+ D- A
0.89 60% 40% 15% -7 0 0.88 19% 0.7 .13 23% .49 78% .38 1.17 84% 17% 42% +13 +1 1.31 27% 1.3 .35 24% .24 77% .19
Nov
8		 Binghamton F+ D D- F F 47% 18% 35% C F D D+ D C- D+ C- D+ B A- A+ A+ A+ 53% 22% 24% D- A+ F D F F C B+ B-
1.05 54% 33% 22% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.0 .28 13% .30 71% .22 0.92 46% 18% 25% -14 +1 0.76 30% 0.9 .27 14% .37 70% .26
Nov
10		 Delaware St. C- D D A+ A- 55% 7% 39% A A- F F F B+ D- F+ F+ D A D- B+ C 36% 26% 38% F+ C- C+ F F F B+ C+ B+
1.14 58% 33% 53% +11 +3 1.30 12% 0.7 .08 15% .28 64% .18 0.96 41% 42% 28% -9 -1 0.83 23% 1.3 .29 13% .23 67% .15
Nov
17		 Le Moyne D- F F A+ C+ 29% 20% 51% D+ C+ F D+ F D F+ B+ D D D+ A- F F 29% 22% 49% A- F+ C+ A+ A+ C- F F F
1.01 33% 20% 50% +1 -1 1.04 18% 1.0 .18 16% .25 79% .20 1.10 62% 30% 45% +8 -1 1.16 23% 0.3 .07 19% .41 91% .37
Nov
21		 Duke F F F F F 29% 15% 56% B+ F D+ B C F A+ F B+ F D+ F F F 31% 6% 63% B F F+ F F D+ F F F
0.65 42% 17% 22% -18 0 0.66 19% 0.9 .17 26% .31 60% .19 1.54 67% 67% 53% +23 +1 1.50 46% 1.5 .67 14% .43 79% .34
Nov
22		 Howard F+ F A+ F D+ 60% 15% 26% B C- C- A B- F A+ C- A+ C- A F C C 45% 12% 43% D C B- D- C- C- F B+ F
0.93 46% 71% 25% -5 +2 0.96 31% 1.3 .41 29% .54 69% .37 1.06 42% 60% 33% -5 +2 0.95 32% 1.2 .38 20% .71 70% .50
Nov
29		 Detroit Mercy F+ A- A+ F D+ 36% 13% 51% C D+ F A+ F B F F F C- C+ D A+ A 33% 31% 36% D A- F+ D F+ D F C F
1.01 68% 57% 22% -3 +1 0.98 12% 1.8 .21 12% .24 64% .16 1.07 53% 43% 19% -8 -2 0.82 38% 1.0 .38 14% .53 77% .41
Dec
5		 Siena F F A+ F F 50% 11% 39% A F F D F A+ F F F F D+ F+ F F 37% 23% 40% D+ F D+ D- D- D- B B B+
0.83 44% 50% 19% -14 +2 0.78 17% 0.9 .15 11% .19 55% .10 1.27 63% 50% 43% +10 0 1.21 32% 1.1 .36 14% .25 71% .18
Dec
7		 St. Peter's F D+ F F F 38% 23% 38% D F D F F F F A+ D+ F+ A+ F F D- 40% 20% 40% D+ D- C+ F F D- B+ D B-
0.71 53% 11% 20% -16 0 0.69 30% 0.8 .23 30% .33 86% .28 1.17 39% 56% 39% -1 0 1.00 33% 1.5 .50 15% .27 79% .21
Dec
13		 Morgan St. D C- A D- D 50% 8% 42% B D+ F A+ D+ B- F B- F F F F F F 24% 29% 47% B F F D+ F A+ F F F
1.09 58% 50% 30% -1 +2 1.04 14% 2.8 .38 13% .33 74% .24 1.21 78% 73% 44% +22 -2 1.42 56% 0.9 .50 34% .48 86% .41
Dec
15		 Virginia Commonwealth D F+ F+ C D- 54% 19% 28% B D A- F F+ B- F A+ F F+ A- C+ F F 27% 11% 62% B F D+ A B C+ C- A B-
0.92 45% 30% 33% -9 +1 0.87 38% 0.4 .17 16% .15 88% .13 1.34 50% 40% 54% +16 0 1.36 37% 0.9 .33 16% .40 67% .26
Jan
2		 Sacred Heart D C+ C+ A+ B+ 37% 12% 51% C+ B+ F F F D+ C- D- D+ C C- A+ A+ A+ 44% 14% 42% F+ A F A F A F F+ F
1.10 63% 40% 45% +11 +1 1.26 19% 0.6 .12 15% .24 67% .16 1.05 58% 17% 22% -10 +1 0.84 46% 0.8 .37 24% .41 83% .34
Jan
4		 Fairfield B- B+ A+ A A 59% 4% 37% A A D F F C F A+ F F D- F F F 44% 25% 31% C F F D+ F F F F F
1.24 67% 50% 42% +10 +4 1.29 27% 0.7 .19 15% .08 100% .08 1.37 62% 50% 40% +7 0 1.17 41% 1.0 .41 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
9		 Iona F D+ F F F 32% 22% 46% D+ F F+ F F A F A- F+ D- F F A- D 34% 15% 51% C- D F A D- D C F D
0.87 56% 18% 26% -10 -1 0.80 26% 0.6 .15 12% .17 78% .13 1.17 69% 57% 29% +3 0 1.09 39% 0.8 .33 15% .25 85% .21
Jan
11		 Manhattan C- F+ A+ A+ B+ 49% 9% 43% A A- F F F D+ F A+ F F D A- A+ C+ 44% 29% 27% C+ C+ F F F F F F F
1.16 52% 75% 50% +10 +2 1.28 28% 0.5 .14 17% .14 86% .12 1.31 60% 31% 25% -5 -1 0.91 37% 1.7 .63 8% .38 90% .34
Jan
14		 Canisius D- D+ F B- D- 56% 17% 27% B+ D+ D- F F D A- B+ A B- B D- A+ A- 25% 16% 59% C- B+ F A+ C- C- F+ D- F+
1.02 57% 29% 36% -2 +2 1.02 26% 0.4 .10 17% .37 78% .29 0.93 45% 43% 23% -12 0 0.77 41% 0.6 .26 19% .34 75% .25
Jan
19		 Mount St. Mary's F F D- F F 45% 14% 41% A- F A+ A+ A+ F D+ F D- F A F D- D+ 51% 9% 40% F+ D+ F+ A+ B F F D F
0.95 25% 33% 22% -23 +1 0.59 42% 1.3 .56 21% .31 67% .21 1.11 46% 75% 37% -1 +2 1.04 34% 0.7 .25 16% .41 71% .29
Jan
22		 Fairfield F D- A+ C D- 54% 8% 38% B+ D+ F F F D- F C+ F A A F B B 41% 20% 39% D+ B- C- D+ D+ B+ A A+ A+
0.94 50% 50% 35% -3 +3 1.02 18% 0.5 .09 18% .15 75% .11 0.95 43% 50% 30% -6 0 0.90 34% 1.0 .34 18% .17 56% .09
Jan
24		 Sacred Heart D A- D A B+ 51% 13% 36% B B+ F A+ B F F F F C F F D F 25% 22% 53% B F+ A+ A+ A+ F C A B-
1.06 71% 33% 41% +10 +2 1.26 21% 2.0 .42 21% .13 14% .02 1.08 69% 45% 37% +7 -1 1.14 13% 0.5 .06 14% .28 69% .19
Jan
30		 Siena B+ C- A+ A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D- A+ C+ C+ D F F F F F C- F 26% 38% 36% A+ F A+ F D C- F F F
1.25 56% 50% 52% +15 0 1.33 25% 1.3 .32 16% .25 54% .13 1.30 91% 63% 33% +18 -3 1.31 20% 1.8 .35 16% .43 87% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Marist F F F A+ F 44% 24% 31% B- F C F F F F D- F C+ C C A+ B- 31% 44% 24% A+ B+ A+ F B F D F F+
0.75 30% 9% 43% -15 0 0.71 30% 0.5 .16 25% .24 64% .15 0.95 57% 40% 18% -5 -4 0.84 13% 1.8 .23 13% .28 87% .24
Feb
3		 Canisius C- A- A A+ A+ 50% 5% 45% A+ A+ F F F F F B+ F D+ D- F A+ C- 40% 17% 44% F+ D+ A+ F C+ F A+ F A-
1.13 70% 50% 44% +14 +3 1.35 23% 0.8 .18 21% .20 78% .15 0.97 58% 63% 19% -6 +1 0.92 16% 1.4 .23 14% .16 88% .14
Feb
7		 Quinnipiac D- B- C- D C- 32% 22% 46% D D+ C+ F D+ F F+ D+ F+ A- A+ A+ F B+ 36% 18% 45% D+ B F A+ A+ B+ D- F+ F+
0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16 0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25
Feb
13		 Manhattan F+ A+ A+ D- B- 43% 15% 41% B- B F F F D B+ A- A F F A+ F F 27% 29% 44% A- F D+ F F C B D- B-
1.09 75% 57% 32% +9 +1 1.22 16% 0.5 .08 17% .31 81% .25 1.20 77% 14% 48% +7 -2 1.13 29% 1.4 .42 16% .24 85% .21
Feb
15		 Iona B+ C- C A+ A+ 44% 19% 37% C+ A+ F F F A- B A+ A F F D- A C 20% 20% 59% A- C+ F F F F F F+ F
1.25 58% 38% 56% +12 +1 1.28 16% 0.5 .08 12% .31 87% .26 1.21 78% 44% 27% -1 -1 0.98 34% 1.5 .53 12% .35 76% .26
Feb
20		 Mount St. Mary's F D- A F F 27% 22% 51% D+ F D+ F F+ F A+ B A+ D D+ A+ B- C- 62% 12% 26% F D+ F F F C- C+ B+ B-
0.90 50% 50% 22% -9 -1 0.82 26% 0.8 .20 21% .51 79% .40 1.09 61% 17% 31% -2 +3 1.04 37% 1.4 .50 21% .29 63% .18
Feb
22		 Rider F A F B+ B- 55% 11% 34% B- B- F F F F D- F F D+ F A+ D- F+ 34% 43% 23% A- D D- A B- C F+ F F
0.96 71% 20% 40% +8 +2 1.23 16% 0.5 .08 28% .23 55% .13 1.03 69% 25% 36% -1 -3 0.94 36% 0.7 .24 17% .33 83% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 36.0 33.5 6.0 75.4 11th
12th 22.3 2.0 24.4 12th
13th 0.2 0.2 13th
Total 58.5 35.5 6.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 6.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 35.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.1 35.5
4-16 58.5% 58.5
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 3.5% 16.0 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 58.5%