Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -12.3 #349
Expected Predictive Rating -13.9 #348
Pace 59.7 #363
Improvement +1.4 #120

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #341 D F+ C- F+ B-
Defense #323 D D D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #51 1.01 #333 -0.1 #180
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #267 0.72 #235 -2.0 #280
Three Pointers 40% #203 0.92 #300 -2.5 #265
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #310 -4.5 #310
Freethrows 0.22 #359 71% #240 0.15 #355
Second Chance 22.3% #351 0.88 #348 0.20 #358
Turnovers 17.7% #261
Total Offense -7.1 #341

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #201 1.19 #223 -0.3 #189
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #218 0.90 #350 -0.8 #250
Three Pointers 43% #124 1.15 #338 -3.8 #323
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #321 -5.0 #323
Freethrows 0.30 #181 77% #349 0.23 #241
Second Chance 34.8% #322 1.07 #229 0.37 #305
Turnovers 14.9% #280
Total Defense -5.2 #323

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #64 0.3% #194
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.4% #333 9.4% #334
Possession Length 20.2 #362 17.4 #192
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #351 0.21 #312
Improvement +0.8 #136 +0.6 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.4% 17.3% 36.7%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 22.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 60 - 8
Quad 47 - 147 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 121 @Duquesne L 63 - 83 6% -17  0 - 1 -14 -8 F+ F F -6 F C- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 362 @Binghamton W 67 - 59 53% +0  1 - 1 -5 -5 F D C- +1 A+ F F
 Mon, Nov 10 356 Delaware St. W 68 - 57 68% +8  2 - 1 -6 +3 A F A- -8 C- F+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 284 @Le Moyne L 68 - 74 21% -4  2 - 2 -10 -4 C+ F D+ -6 F+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 21 3 @Duke L 42 - 100 0% -30  2 - 3 -31 -14 F C F -22 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 22 274 Howard L 70 - 80 28% +4  2 - 4 -16 -8 D+ C+ F -8 D+ C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 295 Detroit Mercy L 66 - 70 43% -6  2 - 5 -14 -9 D F B- -6 B+ D- D+
 Fri, Dec 5 172 @Siena L 54 - 83 10% -22  2 - 6 0 - 1 -27 -14 F F A+ -15 F D+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 230 @St. Peter's L 43 - 71 14% -13  2 - 7 0 - 2 -29 -21 F F F -12 D F D-
 Sat, Dec 13 355 @Morgan St. L 73 - 81 45% -4  2 - 8 -19 -2 D D B- -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 15 51 @Virginia Commonwealth L 58 - 84 2% -8  2 - 9 -13 -4 D- D+ B- -12 F B C+
 Fri, Jan 2 277 Sacred Heart W 64 - 61 40% +9  3 - 9 1 - 2 -7 -3 B F C- -3 A- F+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 272 Fairfield L 75 - 83 38% -5  3 - 10 1 - 3 -17 +8 A F+ C -26 F F+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 229 @Iona L 53 - 71 14% -16  3 - 11 1 - 4 -19 -10 F F A- -11 D+ F+ D
 Sun, Jan 11 326 @Manhattan L 70 - 79 31% +1  3 - 12 1 - 5 -16 +3 B+ F C- -21 C+ F F
 Wed, Jan 14 343 @Canisius W 59 - 54 36% +3  4 - 12 2 - 5 -4 -3 D+ F D- +0 B C C+
 Mon, Jan 19 291 Mount St. Mary's L 58 - 68 42% +3  4 - 13 2 - 6 -20 -9 F A+ F -13 F C+ F+
 Thu, Jan 22 272 @Fairfield L 61 - 62 19% -3  4 - 14 2 - 7 -4 -10 D+ F F+ +6 C C- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 277 @Sacred Heart L 70 - 71 21% +5  4 - 15 2 - 8 -5 -3 B B F -2 F A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 172 Siena L 61 - 69 22%
 Sun, Feb 1 159 Marist L 57 - 66 18%
 Tue, Feb 3 343 Canisius W 63 - 61 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 177 @Quinnipiac L 63 - 77 10%
 Fri, Feb 13 326 Manhattan W 71 - 70 55%
 Sun, Feb 15 229 Iona L 65 - 71 30%
 Fri, Feb 20 291 @Mount St. Mary's L 62 - 70 22%
 Sun, Feb 22 352 @Rider L 63 - 65 41%
 Fri, Feb 27 177 Quinnipiac L 66 - 74 22%
 Sun, Mar 1 209 Merrimack L 61 - 67 26%
Totals 7 - 22 5 - 15 -12 -7 D F+ C- -5 D D D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.8 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 2.3 2.4 0.3 5.4 9th
10th 0.6 4.3 5.2 0.9 0.0 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 2.4 9.7 10.3 3.1 0.2 25.7 11th
12th 0.2 4.4 16.0 13.7 3.7 0.3 0.0 38.3 12th
13th 2.6 7.7 5.4 1.1 0.0 16.8 13th
Total 2.8 12.1 23.9 25.2 18.7 11.1 4.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.3% 0.3
9-11 1.2% 1.2
8-12 4.8% 4.8
7-13 11.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 11.0
6-14 18.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.7
5-15 25.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.1
4-16 23.9% 23.9
3-17 12.1% 12.1
2-18 2.8% 2.8
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.8%