Niagara
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#243
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#241
Pace68.1#196
Improvement+6.2#9

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#225
First Shot+1.9#127
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#349
Layup/Dunks+0.0#169
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#65
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#192
Freethrows+0.0#179
Improvement-1.1#246

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#240
First Shot-2.3#258
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#183
Layups/Dunks-3.9#312
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#342
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#111
Freethrows+3.1#20
Improvement+7.3#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 8.5% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 81.7% 94.5% 61.2%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 10.9% 16.3% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four2.0% 1.5% 2.9%
First Round6.8% 7.7% 5.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 35 - 25 - 4
Quad 411 - 915 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 124   @ Notre Dame L 63-70 18%     0 - 1 -1.3 +2.7 -4.6
  Nov 11, 2023 307   Bucknell L 64-73 74%     0 - 2 -19.9 -7.3 -13.5
  Nov 16, 2023 153   @ Hawaii L 73-92 24%     0 - 3 -15.8 -1.3 -13.5
  Nov 25, 2023 354   @ St. Francis (PA) W 69-61 78%     1 - 3 -4.1 -0.9 -2.2
  Dec 01, 2023 215   St. Peter's L 67-72 57%     1 - 4 0 - 1 -10.8 -2.3 -8.6
  Dec 03, 2023 198   Quinnipiac L 68-75 OT 55%     1 - 5 0 - 2 -12.2 -14.3 +2.8
  Dec 06, 2023 87   St. Bonaventure L 60-94 23%     1 - 6 -30.3 -5.9 -27.6
  Dec 16, 2023 331   NJIT W 89-81 82%     2 - 6 -5.7 +12.6 -18.1
  Dec 19, 2023 293   @ Binghamton L 69-74 51%     2 - 7 -9.3 -6.5 -2.8
  Dec 21, 2023 83   @ Syracuse L 71-83 11%     2 - 8 -2.4 -1.1 -0.6
  Dec 29, 2023 344   @ Buffalo W 69-63 71%     3 - 8 -3.9 -7.8 +4.0
  Jan 05, 2024 347   @ Manhattan W 81-67 73%     4 - 8 1 - 2 +3.7 +4.7 -1.0
  Jan 07, 2024 191   @ Iona W 75-73 32%     5 - 8 2 - 2 +2.9 +4.4 -1.5
  Jan 12, 2024 182   Fairfield W 96-72 50%     6 - 8 3 - 2 +19.9 +22.6 -1.9
  Jan 15, 2024 355   Siena L 88-93 89%     6 - 9 3 - 3 -22.7 +1.6 -23.8
  Jan 19, 2024 245   @ Rider W 78-74 40%     7 - 9 4 - 3 +2.6 +4.3 -1.6
  Jan 21, 2024 256   @ Mount St. Mary's W 82-71 42%     8 - 9 5 - 3 +9.1 +16.5 -6.4
  Jan 26, 2024 222   Marist W 67-62 57%     9 - 9 6 - 3 -0.9 +0.0 -0.6
  Jan 28, 2024 347   Manhattan L 78-84 OT 86%     9 - 10 6 - 4 -21.8 -11.6 -9.4
  Feb 02, 2024 215   @ St. Peter's W 68-59 OT 36%     10 - 10 7 - 4 +8.7 -0.4 +9.1
  Feb 06, 2024 280   Canisius W 69-64 68%     11 - 10 8 - 4 -3.9 -4.2 +0.6
  Feb 08, 2024 191   Iona L 71-74 52%     11 - 11 8 - 5 -7.6 -6.1 -1.4
  Feb 16, 2024 182   @ Fairfield W 65-63 30%     12 - 11 9 - 5 +3.4 -7.3 +10.8
  Feb 18, 2024 198   @ Quinnipiac W 80-66 34%     13 - 11 10 - 5 +14.3 +5.4 +8.5
  Feb 23, 2024 280   @ Canisius L 59-69 48%     13 - 12 10 - 6 -13.4 -9.9 -4.3
  Mar 01, 2024 245   Rider W 75-72 62%    
  Mar 03, 2024 256   Mount St. Mary's W 74-71 63%    
  Mar 07, 2024 355   @ Siena W 72-64 77%    
  Mar 09, 2024 222   @ Marist L 63-67 36%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.0 7.0 10.9 1st
2nd 1.1 15.1 4.2 20.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 12.7 14.4 0.6 27.8 3rd
4th 0.0 3.5 17.9 1.6 23.0 4th
5th 0.4 8.4 3.3 12.1 5th
6th 1.2 3.3 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 1.1 0.3 1.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.7 15.6 35.0 35.0 11.7 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 59.3% 7.0    1.5 3.1 2.1 0.3
13-7 11.3% 4.0    0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.5 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.9% 10.9 1.5 3.5 3.5 2.0 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 11.7% 12.2% 12.2% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 10.3
13-7 35.0% 8.7% 8.7% 15.5 0.1 1.4 1.5 31.9
12-8 35.0% 6.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.0 0.5 1.9 32.7
11-9 15.6% 5.5% 5.5% 15.9 0.0 0.8 14.7
10-10 2.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 2.6
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.5 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 11.7% 12.2% 14.9 0.1 2.5 7.8 1.8
Lose Out 2.7% 3.8% 16.0 3.8