Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.0#347
Expected Predictive Rating-24.6#365
Pace63.8#321
Improvement+1.3#97

Offense
Total Offense-10.1#363
First Shot-10.3#364
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#157
Layup/Dunks-5.3#336
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.1#357
Freethrows-1.2#259
Improvement-0.6#219

Defense
Total Defense-1.9#235
First Shot-1.5#220
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#222
Layups/Dunks-5.4#343
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#194
Freethrows+2.8#33
Improvement+1.9#58
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 5.5% 10.3% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.3% 20.6% 32.4%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.5% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia Commonwealth (Away) - 0.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 61 - 12
Quad 45 - 126 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 29 @Virginia L 53-87 1%     0 - 1 -16.7 -9.0 -10.9
  Wed, Nov 5 146 @Rutgers L 53-81 8%     0 - 2 -24.0 -14.1 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 18 40 @Texas L 65-99 1%     0 - 3 -18.8 -6.3 -10.3
  Thu, Nov 20 8 @Houston L 45-91 0.4%    0 - 4 -22.8 -14.3 -10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 364 Coppin St. L 65-68 83%     0 - 5 -25.1 -18.4 -6.7
  Thu, Dec 4 266 @Merrimack L 66-68 19%     0 - 6 0 - 1 -4.7 +0.6 -5.5
  Sun, Dec 7 160 @Quinnipiac L 58-72 9%     0 - 7 0 - 2 -11.0 -10.7 -0.6
  Tue, Dec 9 308 Bucknell L 38-51 48%     0 - 8 -24.4 -33.2 +6.8
  Tue, Dec 16 286 @Delaware L 57-65 21%     0 - 9 -11.6 -10.0 -2.6
  Mon, Dec 22 45 @Virginia Commonwealth L 55-81 1%    
  Mon, Dec 29 314 Manhattan L 70-71 50%    
  Sun, Jan 4 177 Siena L 60-68 23%    
  Fri, Jan 9 279 @Fairfield L 62-71 21%    
  Sun, Jan 11 156 Marist L 57-66 19%    
  Wed, Jan 14 162 Iona L 66-75 21%    
  Sat, Jan 17 295 @St. Peter's L 58-66 24%    
  Mon, Jan 19 235 Sacred Heart L 67-72 34%    
  Sat, Jan 24 300 @Mount St. Mary's L 62-69 24%    
  Fri, Jan 30 314 @Manhattan L 67-73 29%    
  Sun, Feb 1 295 St. Peter's L 61-63 44%    
  Thu, Feb 5 156 @Marist L 54-69 9%    
  Sat, Feb 7 266 Merrimack L 61-64 38%    
  Fri, Feb 13 300 Mount St. Mary's L 65-66 45%    
  Sun, Feb 15 235 @Sacred Heart L 64-75 17%    
  Fri, Feb 20 340 Canisius W 62-60 58%    
  Sun, Feb 22 353 Niagara W 65-61 65%    
  Fri, Feb 27 162 @Iona L 63-78 9%    
  Sun, Mar 1 177 @Siena L 57-71 11%    
Projected Record 5 - 23 5 - 15




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.5 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.7 3.2 0.7 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.2 5.0 1.2 0.1 13.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.7 6.7 6.5 1.9 0.2 0.0 18.3 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 4.7 8.6 6.6 2.0 0.3 0.0 23.7 12th
13th 0.7 3.1 5.8 6.3 4.1 1.2 0.1 0.0 21.4 13th
Total 0.7 3.2 7.2 11.5 15.6 16.0 15.0 11.9 8.1 5.4 3.0 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 17.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.2% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 0.6% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.6
11-9 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 3.0% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
9-11 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.3
8-12 8.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.1
7-13 11.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.9
6-14 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.0
5-15 16.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.0
4-16 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.6
3-17 11.5% 11.5
2-18 7.2% 7.2
1-19 3.2% 3.2
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%