Rider
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#196
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#201
Pace64.9#272
Improvement+0.7#104

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#147
First Shot-1.9#251
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#22
Layup/Dunks-0.6#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#338
Freethrows+0.5#134
Improvement+0.0#195

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#244
First Shot-1.5#230
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#259
Layups/Dunks+0.5#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#2
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#328
Freethrows-1.0#263
Improvement+0.7#82
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 5.8% 4.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 87.7% 92.7% 72.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.9% 98.0%
Conference Champion 13.4% 16.2% 5.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.7% 0.5% 1.0%
First Round5.1% 5.6% 3.7%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 74.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 01 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 31 - 43 - 8
Quad 413 - 515 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 25   @ Providence L 65-66 7%     0 - 1 +14.7 +3.5 +11.1
  Nov 18, 2022 199   Stetson L 68-78 50%     0 - 2 -11.5 -5.3 -6.8
  Nov 19, 2022 338   Central Arkansas L 85-90 82%     0 - 3 -15.9 -0.8 -14.7
  Nov 22, 2022 20   @ Rutgers L 46-76 6%     0 - 4 -13.5 -13.5 -0.5
  Nov 30, 2022 351   Monmouth W 88-62 90%     1 - 4 +10.6 +9.3 +0.8
  Dec 03, 2022 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 68-65 60%     2 - 4 1 - 0 -1.1 +3.8 -4.6
  Dec 07, 2022 340   @ Stonehill W 78-67 75%     3 - 4 +2.7 +3.7 -0.8
  Dec 19, 2022 206   Delaware L 59-60 62%     3 - 5 -5.5 -4.6 -1.2
  Dec 22, 2022 316   Marist W 77-71 82%     4 - 5 2 - 0 -5.0 +4.5 -9.2
  Dec 28, 2022 103   @ Georgia L 72-78 21%     4 - 6 +1.0 +4.3 -3.5
  Dec 31, 2022 281   @ Canisius W 66-64 59%     5 - 6 3 - 0 -1.7 -4.5 +2.9
  Jan 02, 2023 239   @ Niagara L 59-61 49%     5 - 7 3 - 1 -3.3 -7.5 +4.1
  Jan 06, 2023 133   Quinnipiac L 63-72 48%     5 - 8 3 - 2 -9.9 -5.2 -5.3
  Jan 08, 2023 151   @ Siena L 63-68 32%     5 - 9 3 - 3 -1.4 -5.5 +3.9
  Jan 15, 2023 85   @ Iona W 70-67 17%     6 - 9 4 - 3 +11.6 +6.6 +5.2
  Jan 20, 2023 239   Niagara W 65-62 70%     7 - 9 5 - 3 -3.7 +2.4 -5.5
  Jan 22, 2023 294   Manhattan W 67-65 79%     8 - 9 6 - 3 -7.7 -5.1 -2.5
  Jan 27, 2023 316   @ Marist W 68-52 66%     9 - 9 7 - 3 +10.5 +4.6 +8.2
  Jan 29, 2023 232   @ Fairfield W 78-69 OT 48%     10 - 9 8 - 3 +8.1 +13.5 -4.6
  Feb 03, 2023 263   St. Peter's W 67-60 75%    
  Feb 05, 2023 294   @ Manhattan W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 10, 2023 232   Fairfield W 68-63 69%    
  Feb 17, 2023 281   Canisius W 74-66 77%    
  Feb 19, 2023 133   @ Quinnipiac L 68-74 28%    
  Feb 24, 2023 151   Siena W 69-68 53%    
  Feb 26, 2023 290   Mount St. Mary's W 69-61 79%    
  Mar 02, 2023 263   @ St. Peter's W 64-63 54%    
  Mar 04, 2023 85   Iona L 69-74 35%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.9 5.1 1.0 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.7 8.2 7.3 0.7 18.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.3 10.3 11.2 1.9 25.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 4.9 12.9 12.2 3.2 0.1 33.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 3.3 1.9 0.3 7.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.9 8.8 17.2 24.5 24.0 15.2 5.8 1.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-4 88.2% 5.1    2.7 2.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 38.6% 5.9    1.3 2.6 1.6 0.3
14-6 5.7% 1.4    0.1 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 5.1 5.1 2.6 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.0% 15.4% 15.4% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 5.8% 10.0% 10.0% 14.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 5.2
15-5 15.2% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 14.0
14-6 24.0% 6.3% 6.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 22.5
13-7 24.5% 4.7% 4.7% 15.3 0.0 0.7 0.4 23.3
12-8 17.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.9 0.1 0.5 16.7
11-9 8.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 8.6
10-10 2.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 2.9
9-11 0.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.6 1.6 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 15.4% 13.5 1.2 5.8 7.6 0.8
Lose Out 0.1%