Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.3 164
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 140
Pace 62.3 335
Improvement +10.3 2

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 231 D+ D- C+ B+ B
Defense C+ 116 B F+ B D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 142 D+ 54% 289 -1.0 219
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 338 C+ 39% 136 -2.9 314
Three Pointers 47% 56 D 31% 298 +1.0 141
Shot Selection/Accuracy B +1.0 52 D -3.6 306
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.97 262
Second Chance D- 23.7% 341 C- 0.99 227 D- 0.24 331
Turnovers C+ 16.2% 141
Freethrows B 0.34 71 B+ 78% 15 B+ 0.26 33
Total Offense C- -2.2 231

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 42% 291 F+ 15.0% 344
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 22% 221 D 7.6% 316
Three Pointers B- 87% 122 B- 0.6% 114
Total C 55% 188 D- 7.2% 329

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 B+ 52% 41 -0.7 144
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 90 C- 40% 256 +1.2 285
Three Pointers 35% 336 B 31% 51 -4.8 19
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 146 B -3.8 45
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 51
Second Chance F 41.0% 365 C+ 1.01 149 F+ 0.41 357
Turnovers B 18.9% 65
Freethrows D+ 0.34 296 C+ 71% 120 D+ 0.24 275
Total Defense C+ +1.9 116

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 338 B- 14.3% 62
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots F 46% 361 B- 6.4% 84
Three Pointers D- 91% 122 A+ 3.8% 114
Total D- 64% 335 A- 8.8% 18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.5 297 18.3 316
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 169 0.12 39
Improvement +3.6 #33 +6.7 #3

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26% 27% 23%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 100% 100% 99%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round26% 27% 23%
Second Round1% 1% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Siena (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 00 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 8
Quad 418 - 322 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 209 South Dakota St. L 66 - 75 60% -2  31% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -11 F F C C -1 B- F+ A-
 Thu, Nov 6 33 @Auburn L 57 - 95 6% -18  3% 0 - 2 F -21 F -12 F D- B F -10 B F D+
 Tue, Nov 11 224 @Tarleton St. L 62 - 76 51% -5  17% 0 - 3 F+ -14 F -13 F D- F C -1 D- D B+
 Sat, Nov 15 258 @Boston University W 91 - 79 58% +10  95% 1 - 3 B +10 A+ +18 A+ C+ F D- -8 D F D
 Wed, Nov 19 344 Maine W 72 - 65 92% +3  77% 2 - 3 D -9 C+ +3 D- B+ B F -10 B- F A+
 Fri, Nov 21 4 @Florida L 45 - 80 2% -24  0% 2 - 4 D -9 F -14 F D+ C B- +2 A F B+
 Fri, Nov 28 174 @Penn L 65 - 77 40% -4  29% 2 - 5 D -10 D- -7 F D- A+ D+ -4 D+ F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 114 Hofstra L 58 - 78 37% -12  2% 2 - 6 F+ -17 F -14 D F B- D+ -4 C- C+ A-
 Sun, Nov 30 213 La Salle W 66 - 60 60% +4  88% 3 - 6 C+ +3 C- -2 D D+ B- B+ +6 C F+ A+
 Thu, Dec 4 355 Rider W 68 - 66 94% +1  63% 4 - 6 1 - 0 F+ -15 F+ -8 C- F C+ D- -7 D F A+
 Sun, Dec 7 267 Fairfield W 74 - 63 80% +10  98% 5 - 6 2 - 0 C+ +2 C- -1 B F B- B +4 C B A
 Wed, Dec 10 246 @Princeton W 59 - 56 55% +2  71% 6 - 6 C +1 D -5 D- F A A- +7 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 14 220 @Vermont L 59 - 66 50% -7  0% 6 - 7 D+ -7 D -6 F C D C- -3 A- D- F+
 Mon, Dec 29 284 @Sacred Heart W 80 - 72 64% +8  99% 7 - 7 3 - 0 C+ +4 B- +5 B- F+ C+ C -0 D+ D- C+
 Fri, Jan 2 289 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 65 83% +4  74% 8 - 7 4 - 0 C -0 D+ -3 D D+ C- B- +2 A D+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 317 Manhattan W 73 - 66 88% +4  80% 9 - 7 5 - 0 D+ -6 F+ -8 C F B- B- +3 B- C+ D
 Fri, Jan 9 189 @Siena W 63 - 59 44% +9  94% 10 - 7 6 - 0 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A- C +0 B F B-
 Sun, Jan 11 227 @St. Peter's L 63 - 76 52% -9  0% 10 - 8 6 - 1 D- -14 D+ -3 F C+ C F -13 F F A
 Sat, Jan 17 194 Quinnipiac W 83 - 71 68% +12  90% 11 - 8 7 - 1 B- +7 A +12 A B+ C- D+ -4 B+ F+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 185 @Marist W 68 - 55 43% +6  88% 12 - 8 8 - 1 B+ +14 B- +4 B F C A+ +11 A+ D+ B
 Thu, Jan 22 252 @Iona L 60 - 61 57% -1  29% 12 - 9 8 - 2 C- -3 D- -6 D- B F B- +3 B- C C+
 Sat, Jan 24 227 St. Peter's W 67 - 59 73% +11  97% 13 - 9 9 - 2 C +1 D+ -3 D+ D B B+ +5 A+ F A+
 Sun, Feb 1 284 Sacred Heart W 75 - 58 82% +8  93% 14 - 9 10 - 2 B- +7 C- -1 F A- A+ A +10 B+ B- A+
 Thu, Feb 5 289 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 70 65% +10  90% 15 - 9 11 - 2 B+ +13 A- +11 A+ F C- C+ +2 C+ F+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 355 @Rider W 73 - 47 85% +16  98% 16 - 9 12 - 2 A- +15 B+ +8 B A+ F A+ +12 A+ D- F+
 Thu, Feb 12 185 Marist W 81 - 56 66% +6  55% 17 - 9 13 - 2 A +20 A +13 A+ F A A +9 A+ F B-
 Sun, Feb 15 194 @Quinnipiac W 56 - 49 45% +0  54% 18 - 9 14 - 2 B- +8 F -12 F F C A+ +20 A+ F A+
 Fri, Feb 20 189 Siena W 69 - 64 67%
 Sun, Feb 22 252 Iona W 74 - 66 77%
 Fri, Feb 27 346 @Canisius W 68 - 59 81%
 Sun, Mar 1 336 @Niagara W 67 - 59 78%
Totals 21 - 10 17 - 3 +0 C- -2 C+ D B C+ +2 D B+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D+ C+ D D 40% 22% 47% B D+ D- C- D- C+ B B+ B+ C+ B+ C- B B 42% 23% 35% C B F C+ F+ B D+ C+ D+
1.05 54% 39% 31% -4 +1 0.97 24% 1.0 .24 16% .34 78% .26 1.06 52% 40% 31% -4 0 0.94 41% 1.0 .41 19% .34 71% .24
Nov
3		 South Dakota St. F F F+ F 49% 0% 51% A+ F D F F C A+ A A+ C A- B F B- 44% 23% 33% C+ B- F B- F+ A- F F+ F
0.94 38% 28% -15 +3 0.80 23% 0.7 .15 16% .46 81% .37 1.07 48% 33% 41% -2 0 0.98 39% 1.0 .39 20% .46 77% .36
Nov
6		 Auburn F F+ F F F 31% 12% 57% B F D D- D- B A+ D+ A+ F C- F A B- 34% 21% 45% A- B F F+ F D+ F B- F
0.84 47% 17% 25% -14 +1 0.76 23% 0.9 .20 16% .42 71% .30 1.41 63% 60% 29% +3 0 1.06 60% 1.2 .74 12% .62 73% .45
Nov
11		 Tarleton St. F D- F F F 42% 9% 49% B+ F B F D- F A A A+ C C F A+ F+ 45% 37% 18% B+ D- F A- D B+ F B F
0.84 53% 25% 18% -15 +2 0.76 38% 0.7 .26 29% .46 79% .36 1.03 57% 58% 22% +4 -2 1.06 42% 0.8 .35 23% .44 72% .32
Nov
15		 Boston University A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 13% 53% C+ A+ B D+ C+ F C+ A+ A- D- F+ D F F+ 27% 20% 53% B+ D C+ F F D F+ A C-
1.41 60% 17% 67% +24 +1 1.51 35% 1.0 .35 17% .30 88% .26 1.23 67% 44% 42% +10 -1 1.20 25% 1.6 .41 16% .35 63% .22
Nov
19		 Maine C+ B- A+ F F+ 40% 14% 47% B- D- D A+ B+ B A+ D- A+ F D B- A+ B 47% 18% 35% D- B- F D F A+ F D- F
1.16 65% 50% 20% -5 +1 0.93 32% 1.5 .48 16% .60 65% .38 1.05 63% 33% 17% -8 +1 0.88 47% 1.1 .53 27% .67 70% .47
Nov
21		 Florida F D- F F F 40% 16% 44% A F D+ D- D+ C F+ A+ D+ B- A+ D+ D- A 40% 19% 40% A A F D F B+ F+ F+ F
0.69 45% 13% 18% -20 +1 0.64 17% 0.6 .10 17% .20 82% .16 1.22 37% 44% 37% -6 0 0.91 51% 1.2 .59 18% .43 78% .34
Nov
28		 Penn D- C B F F 40% 16% 44% C+ F F+ C- D- A+ C- A C+ D+ C F A+ D+ 46% 29% 25% D+ D+ F+ F+ F C- F+ A+ B-
0.96 61% 44% 12% -12 +1 0.79 23% 0.9 .21 7% .24 73% .17 1.13 55% 64% 25% +3 -1 1.06 37% 1.2 .43 16% .40 52% .21
Nov
29		 Hofstra F F F D+ F+ 30% 11% 59% B+ D F+ F F B- F+ A+ D+ D+ F A+ F C- 33% 24% 43% C C- D+ B+ C+ A- F F F
0.86 44% 17% 31% -9 +1 0.85 22% 0.4 .10 13% .24 86% .21 1.16 69% 8% 43% +2 -1 1.04 37% 0.9 .33 21% .38 85% .32
Nov
30		 La Salle C- D- D- C D 34% 17% 49% C D C- D D+ B- D B+ D+ B+ D+ A+ B- C+ 48% 21% 31% D C F B+ F+ A+ F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 33% 35% -3 0 0.96 27% 1.0 .27 16% .21 73% .15 0.95 60% 22% 31% -4 +1 0.95 50% 0.8 .41 30% .41 78% .32
Dec
4		 Rider F+ D A+ C+ C- 34% 12% 54% D+ C- F C- F C+ F D- F+ D- A- F B- D+ 52% 25% 23% F D F F F A+ F+ A- D+
1.08 53% 67% 37% +4 +1 1.12 15% 1.0 .15 13% .20 64% .13 1.05 43% 55% 30% -5 0 0.93 48% 1.2 .59 24% .33 63% .21
Dec
7		 Fairfield C- C B A B 40% 16% 44% D+ B F F F B- A+ A- A+ B B- A F+ C- 38% 23% 38% C+ C F A+ B A F+ A D+
1.15 59% 43% 42% +6 +1 1.16 15% 0.5 .08 14% .49 81% .40 0.98 50% 27% 39% -3 0 0.96 40% 0.6 .25 20% .31 63% .20
Dec
10		 Princeton D C- F F F+ 43% 14% 43% B- D- F D F A A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ B- A+ 55% 9% 36% F A+ F C F C F F+ F
1.02 58% 17% 26% -8 +1 0.89 10% 1.0 .10 9% .38 90% .34 0.97 25% 0% 31% -23 +3 0.61 45% 1.0 .45 17% .44 81% .36
Dec
14		 Vermont D F A+ F F 48% 11% 41% A F C C- C D C A B- C- F+ F A+ A 38% 19% 43% C A- F B- D- F+ F F F
1.01 43% 60% 28% -9 +2 0.89 27% 1.0 .27 15% .32 81% .26 1.13 69% 50% 17% -5 0 0.93 34% 0.9 .31 12% .47 83% .39
Dec
29		 Sacred Heart B- C- D A C+ 35% 6% 59% B- B- F C+ F+ C+ A+ D+ A+ C C F C- D 30% 21% 49% B- D+ F B D- C+ D A C-
1.21 59% 33% 41% +7 +2 1.18 22% 1.1 .25 14% .40 70% .28 1.09 57% 50% 35% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.9 .34 20% .32 71% .23
Jan
2		 Mount St. Mary's D+ D+ C F F+ 36% 12% 52% B D F A+ D+ C- A+ B A+ B- B F A+ A+ 54% 13% 33% D- A F A+ D+ C+ F C F
1.08 53% 40% 27% -7 +1 0.90 19% 1.3 .26 14% .67 78% .52 0.93 52% 50% 13% -12 +2 0.83 43% 0.8 .32 23% .52 68% .35
Jan
4		 Manhattan F+ A+ A F C- 41% 8% 51% B+ C F D F B- A F B B- A F A+ B- 51% 28% 21% D+ B- D A C+ D A+ F A+
1.09 75% 50% 28% +3 +2 1.12 17% 1.0 .17 13% .34 65% .22 0.98 41% 56% 25% -6 0 0.89 31% 0.8 .26 13% .14 88% .12
Jan
9		 Siena B F F A+ C- 48% 9% 43% A+ C+ C D- D+ A- C- A- C+ C D+ C- A B- 30% 33% 37% B B F A F B- A D B+
1.16 43% 25% 47% 0 +2 1.07 32% 0.8 .26 13% .28 77% .21 1.09 62% 43% 25% -2 -2 0.93 55% 0.8 .42 18% .20 78% .16
Jan
11		 St. Peter's D+ C- A+ F F 43% 17% 39% C+ F C B C+ C C+ A- B F F+ C+ F F 38% 38% 24% A F F D F A F B+ F
1.02 55% 50% 11% -13 +1 0.78 35% 1.2 .41 19% .42 81% .34 1.23 64% 36% 56% +9 -2 1.16 52% 1.1 .55 23% .63 70% .44
Jan
17		 Quinnipiac A F F A+ A 37% 9% 53% B A D+ A+ B+ C- A+ C+ A+ D+ A- C+ A A 53% 24% 22% D- B+ B- F F+ F+ F D F
1.24 44% 25% 52% +8 +1 1.21 30% 1.4 .41 18% .49 74% .36 1.06 46% 33% 27% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.4 .42 13% .45 73% .33
Jan
19		 Marist B- A- A+ F B 39% 24% 37% C+ B F C+ F C A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ B+ A+ A+ 41% 27% 32% C- A+ F B+ D+ B F F F
1.05 69% 60% 20% +2 0 1.05 13% 1.0 .13 19% .51 81% .42 0.85 50% 33% 14% -14 -1 0.73 32% 1.0 .32 20% .43 86% .37
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
22		 Iona D- F B D+ F+ 48% 16% 36% B D- B+ C+ B F C- F D- B- A+ A+ F B- 24% 18% 58% B B- F+ A C C+ D B- D+
0.99 48% 43% 31% -6 +1 0.93 41% 1.0 .41 22% .25 58% .15 1.01 27% 25% 42% -3 -1 0.96 31% 0.8 .25 18% .30 67% .20
Jan
24		 St. Peter's D+ F F A+ D- 56% 7% 37% A D+ F A D B A- A+ A+ B+ A- A- A+ A+ 36% 22% 42% C A+ F A F A+ F B F
1.06 39% 0% 47% -6 +3 0.95 25% 1.3 .32 17% .48 88% .42 0.93 44% 30% 16% -18 0 0.64 60% 0.8 .47 25% .51 71% .36
Feb
1		 Sacred Heart C- D F F F 46% 12% 42% B- F B- A- A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A A F A- B 33% 33% 35% A B+ A F+ B- A+ F F F
1.18 57% 17% 24% -10 +2 0.86 36% 1.3 .46 8% .32 84% .27 0.91 46% 46% 29% -4 -2 0.90 19% 1.2 .23 25% .38 89% .33
Feb
5		 Mount St. Mary's A- A- A+ A A+ 30% 10% 60% B A+ F C- F C- A A+ A+ C+ A+ F+ F B- 52% 15% 33% D C+ F+ D+ F+ D- F A+ F
1.23 67% 60% 40% +10 +1 1.24 13% 1.0 .13 14% .41 84% .35 0.99 42% 43% 40% -5 +2 0.96 35% 1.1 .38 20% .51 55% .28
Feb
7		 Rider B+ A A D+ B- 59% 10% 31% B+ B A A+ A+ F A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 41% 27% A- A+ C- F D- F+ F A+ F+
1.27 70% 50% 33% +8 +3 1.23 45% 1.3 .60 19% .45 76% .34 0.82 14% 39% 17% -21 -3 0.55 33% 1.1 .37 14% .47 52% .24
Feb
12		 Marist A A+ A+ A A+ 40% 14% 46% A- A+ F F F A A D- B A A+ A+ A+ A+ 47% 23% 30% F+ A+ F F F B- C- A C+
1.22 75% 57% 39% +13 +1 1.30 14% 0.5 .07 14% .44 64% .28 0.85 36% 27% 21% -18 0 0.66 33% 1.4 .45 20% .26 71% .19
Feb
15		 Quinnipiac F D- B- F F 48% 19% 33% C+ F F C F C A A+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% A+ A+ F A- F A+ F D F
0.86 50% 38% 21% -10 +1 0.83 11% 1.0 .11 17% .37 90% .33 0.75 46% 11% 8% -26 -3 0.43 52% 0.9 .45 25% .39 74% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 4.8 19.9 41.2 33.4 99.6 1st
2nd 0.3 0.2 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.5 5.0 19.9 41.2 33.4 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 33.4    33.4
17-3 100.0% 41.2    41.2
16-4 100.0% 19.9    19.0 0.9
15-5 96.7% 4.8    2.3 2.3 0.2
14-6 46.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 99.6% 99.6 96.0 3.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 33.4% 29.2% 29.2% 13.9 0.1 2.5 5.8 1.4 0.0 23.6
17-3 41.2% 25.1% 25.1% 14.6 0.3 4.0 5.6 0.5 30.9
16-4 19.9% 22.5% 22.5% 15.0 0.1 0.8 2.8 0.8 15.4
15-5 5.0% 21.3% 21.3% 15.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 3.9
14-6 0.5% 18.6% 18.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 14.4 74.2 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.8% 100.0% 13.9 0.9 26.1 58.9 14.1 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 9.8%
Lose Out 0.2%