Merrimack
Northeast
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-12.3#341
Expected Predictive Rating-13.4#333
Pace67.6#216
Improvement-0.6#350

Offense
Total Offense-9.3#357
First Shot-5.2#324
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#356
Layup/Dunks-4.7#335
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#336
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#114
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement-0.4#344

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#266
First Shot-1.2#219
After Offensive Rebounds-1.7#289
Layups/Dunks+2.4#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#310
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#297
Freethrows+1.5#98
Improvement-0.2#258
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 2.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 2.9% 6.4% 1.2%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 49.5% 36.2%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.6% 2.7%
Last Place in Conference 18.4% 13.3% 21.0%
First Four1.4% 2.3% 1.0%
First Round0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boston University (Home) - 33.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 30 - 40 - 8
Quad 48 - 129 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 42   @ St. John's L 72-97 2%     0 - 1 -11.7 -6.8 -0.3
  Nov 17, 2022 156   Troy L 54-73 11%     0 - 2 -18.1 -15.5 -3.8
  Nov 18, 2022 224   @ Montana L 51-62 14%     0 - 3 -11.4 -17.7 +5.2
  Nov 19, 2022 290   St. Thomas L 61-72 30%     0 - 4 -17.8 -5.6 -14.6
  Nov 23, 2022 93   @ Providence L 57-71 4%     0 - 5 -5.5 -8.1 +1.5
  Nov 26, 2022 115   @ Bradley L 41-83 5%     0 - 6 -35.2 -27.0 -8.5
  Nov 30, 2022 142   @ Umass Lowell L 51-77 7%     0 - 7 -21.2 -21.3 +1.3
  Dec 02, 2022 256   Boston University L 60-65 34%    
  Dec 04, 2022 196   Vermont L 60-68 24%    
  Dec 07, 2022 84   @ San Francisco L 59-81 2%    
  Dec 11, 2022 258   Maine L 63-67 34%    
  Dec 18, 2022 216   @ Bucknell L 62-74 13%    
  Dec 29, 2022 321   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-76 31%    
  Dec 31, 2022 213   @ Wagner L 59-72 13%    
  Jan 05, 2023 302   Sacred Heart L 72-73 45%    
  Jan 07, 2023 338   St. Francis Brooklyn W 67-64 60%    
  Jan 14, 2023 345   @ Stonehill L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 16, 2023 213   Wagner L 62-69 28%    
  Jan 22, 2023 338   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 64-67 39%    
  Jan 26, 2023 342   @ Central Connecticut St. L 62-65 40%    
  Jan 28, 2023 321   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 02, 2023 350   LIU Brooklyn W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 04, 2023 324   St. Francis (PA) W 68-67 54%    
  Feb 09, 2023 345   Stonehill W 73-69 62%    
  Feb 11, 2023 324   @ St. Francis (PA) L 65-70 33%    
  Feb 16, 2023 361   @ Hartford W 66-64 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 302   @ Sacred Heart L 69-76 25%    
  Feb 23, 2023 342   Central Connecticut St. W 65-62 61%    
  Feb 25, 2023 350   @ LIU Brooklyn L 69-70 45%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 3.1 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.9 3.7 0.9 0.1 11.0 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 5.9 4.3 0.6 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.1 4.9 0.7 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 5.9 5.7 1.0 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 5.2 6.0 1.3 0.0 13.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.8 5.1 1.4 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.3 3.7 3.1 0.9 0.1 11.0 9th
Total 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.2 9.1 12.3 14.7 14.7 13.4 11.0 7.7 4.7 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
14-2 94.4% 0.3    0.2 0.0
13-3 77.8% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
12-4 53.4% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1
11-5 20.4% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
10-6 3.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
9-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.3% 27.3% 27.3% 16.0 0.1 0.2
13-3 1.0% 15.6% 15.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.8
12-4 2.4% 11.3% 11.3% 16.0 0.3 2.2
11-5 4.7% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.3 4.4
10-6 7.7% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.2 7.5
9-7 11.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 10.8
8-8 13.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.2 13.3
7-9 14.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.6
6-10 14.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.7
5-11 12.3% 12.3
4-12 9.1% 9.1
3-13 5.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-14 2.4% 2.4
1-15 0.8% 0.8
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%