Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.7 #241
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #179
Pace 62.7 #338
Improvement +2.8 #47

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #285 D- B+ F B- B
Defense #193 C+ C- F C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #224 1.05 #298 -3.1 #287
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #324 0.65 #298 -3.7 #342
Three Pointers 51% #26 0.89 #308 +1.7 #122
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #314 -5.1 #317
Freethrows 19.3 #81 77% #67 14.8 #58
Second Chance 22.5% #352 0.88 #336 0.20 #357
Turnovers 15.6% #116
Total Offense -4.1 #285

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #46 1.07 #85 -1.3 #225
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.88 #325 -1.9 #305
Three Pointers 34% #338 0.93 #85 +4.8 #31
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #123 +1.7 #124
Freethrows 19.0 #273 71% #125 13.5 #250
Second Chance 40.7% #365 1.02 #154 0.42 #345
Turnovers 17.6% #121
Total Defense -0.6 #193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.7% #82 0.5% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -11.1% #334 -3.8% #114
Possession Length 17.9 #243 18.1 #309
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #177 0.14 #60
Improvement +0.7 #135 +2.1 #56

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.8% 9.5% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.1 15.3
.500 or above 64.0% 81.3% 57.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.6% 96.1% 84.3%
Conference Champion 10.8% 20.6% 7.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
First Round6.4% 9.1% 5.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Siena (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 83 - 11
Quad 414 - 517 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 169 South Dakota St. L 66-75 35%     -1.7   0 - 1 -9.9 -8.5 -1.4
  Thu, Nov 6 30 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     -18.0   0 - 2 -20.6 -8.2 -13.8
  Tue, Nov 11 161 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 24%     -4.9   0 - 3 -11.4 -12.0 +1.3
  Sat, Nov 15 280 @Boston University W 91-79 46%     9.7   1 - 3 +8.3 +20.4 -11.0
  Wed, Nov 19 343 Maine W 72-65 83%     3.2   2 - 3 -7.7 +6.5 -13.2
  Fri, Nov 21 15 @Florida L 45-80 2%     -23.6   2 - 4 -14.4 -13.7 -3.0
  Fri, Nov 28 217 @Penn L 65-77 33%     -4.3   2 - 5 -12.3 -7.5 -5.1
  Sat, Nov 29 113 Hofstra L 58-78 21%     -11.7   2 - 6 -16.3 -11.0 -6.2
  Sun, Nov 30 234 La Salle W 66-60 48%     4.4   3 - 6 +1.9 -1.0 +3.5
  Thu, Dec 4 348 Rider W 68-66 84%     1.4   4 - 6 1 - 0 -13.4 -2.6 -10.5
  Sun, Dec 7 281 Fairfield W 74-63 69%     10.1   5 - 6 2 - 0 +1.3 +0.9 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 10 238 @Princeton W 59-56 38%     2.4   6 - 6 +1.4 -0.3 +2.4
  Sun, Dec 14 183 @Vermont L 59-66 27%     -7.1   6 - 7 -5.5 -4.2 -2.6
  Mon, Dec 29 287 @Sacred Heart W 80-72 47%     8.1   7 - 7 3 - 0 +3.9 +8.3 -3.9
  Fri, Jan 2 295 Mount St. Mary's W 75-65 72%     6.0   8 - 7 4 - 0 -0.7 -0.6 +0.0
  Sun, Jan 4 307 Manhattan W 73-66 74%     4.3   9 - 7 5 - 0 -4.3 -4.9 +1.0
  Fri, Jan 9 180 @Siena L 63-69 28%    
  Sun, Jan 11 251 @St. Peter's L 63-65 41%    
  Sat, Jan 17 160 Quinnipiac L 70-71 44%    
  Mon, Jan 19 137 @Marist L 58-67 20%    
  Thu, Jan 22 214 @Iona L 69-74 33%    
  Sat, Jan 24 251 St. Peter's W 66-62 63%    
  Sun, Feb 1 287 Sacred Heart W 74-69 69%    
  Thu, Feb 5 295 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 348 @Rider W 67-62 66%    
  Thu, Feb 12 137 Marist L 61-64 39%    
  Sun, Feb 15 160 @Quinnipiac L 67-74 25%    
  Fri, Feb 20 180 Siena L 65-66 49%    
  Sun, Feb 22 214 Iona W 72-71 54%    
  Fri, Feb 27 337 @Canisius W 67-63 63%    
  Sun, Mar 1 353 @Niagara W 67-62 69%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 10.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.2 3.9 0.8 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 13.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 6.6 5.8 1.1 0.0 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 6.2 6.7 1.6 0.1 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.7 5.9 1.8 0.1 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.1 1.5 0.0 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 7.2 11.4 15.4 17.2 15.9 12.7 8.4 4.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
17-3 95.0% 1.8    1.5 0.2
16-4 80.0% 3.3    2.0 1.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 42.1% 3.5    1.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.6% 1.3    0.1 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 10.8% 10.8 5.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 28.6% 28.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.5% 25.5% 25.5% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
17-3 1.9% 18.8% 18.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.5
16-4 4.1% 16.2% 16.2% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 3.5
15-5 8.4% 13.6% 13.6% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.2 7.3
14-6 12.7% 10.3% 10.3% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 11.4
13-7 15.9% 8.7% 8.7% 15.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 14.5
12-8 17.2% 5.4% 5.4% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.6 16.2
11-9 15.4% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.2 0.4 14.9
10-10 11.4% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 11.2
9-11 7.2% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.2
8-12 3.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 3.5
7-13 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
6-14 0.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.3 2.5 93.2 0.0%