Merrimack
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#268
Expected Predictive Rating-2.6#204
Pace62.7#340
Improvement+1.0#106

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#275
First Shot-1.5#214
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#331
Layup/Dunks-4.3#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#267
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#104
Freethrows+2.0#77
Improvement+0.2#162

Defense
Total Defense-1.7#224
First Shot+2.9#80
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#361
Layups/Dunks-1.0#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#45
Freethrows-0.5#216
Improvement+0.8#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.8% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.3 15.5
.500 or above 36.5% 53.1% 27.7%
.500 or above in Conference 62.4% 78.0% 54.2%
Conference Champion 3.2% 6.1% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.2% 1.6%
First Four1.1% 1.1% 1.2%
First Round3.7% 5.4% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sacred Heart (Away) - 34.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 32 - 82 - 12
Quad 413 - 615 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 170 South Dakota St. L 66-75 32%     0 - 1 -9.8 -7.8 -2.1
  Thu, Nov 6 29 @Auburn L 57-95 3%     0 - 2 -20.7 -7.9 -14.1
  Tue, Nov 11 181 @Tarleton St. L 62-76 24%     0 - 3 -12.4 -11.9 +0.2
  Sat, Nov 15 289 @Boston University W 91-79 43%     1 - 3 +8.0 +20.5 -11.4
  Wed, Nov 19 334 Maine W 72-65 78%     2 - 3 -6.8 +6.3 -12.2
  Fri, Nov 21 13 @Florida L 45-80 2%     2 - 4 -14.3 -13.7 -2.9
  Fri, Nov 28 254 @Penn L 65-77 37%     2 - 5 -14.2 -8.2 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 29 114 Hofstra L 58-78 19%     2 - 6 -16.5 -10.3 -7.1
  Sun, Nov 30 233 La Salle W 66-60 45%     3 - 6 +1.7 -0.7 +3.0
  Thu, Dec 4 347 Rider W 68-66 81%     4 - 6 1 - 0 -12.9 -0.6 -12.1
  Sun, Dec 7 277 Fairfield W 74-63 64%     5 - 6 2 - 0 +1.8 +2.6 +0.2
  Wed, Dec 10 255 @Princeton W 59-56 37%     6 - 6 +0.7 -0.5 +1.8
  Sun, Dec 14 174 @Vermont L 59-66 23%     6 - 7 -5.0 -3.9 -2.5
  Mon, Dec 29 235 @Sacred Heart L 70-74 35%    
  Fri, Jan 2 303 Mount St. Mary's W 70-65 68%    
  Sun, Jan 4 318 Manhattan W 75-68 73%    
  Fri, Jan 9 172 @Siena L 62-70 23%    
  Sun, Jan 11 294 @St. Peter's L 63-65 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 160 Quinnipiac L 70-73 40%    
  Mon, Jan 19 163 @Marist L 60-68 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 168 @Iona L 68-76 23%    
  Sat, Jan 24 294 St. Peter's W 66-62 66%    
  Sun, Feb 1 235 Sacred Heart W 73-71 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 303 @Mount St. Mary's L 67-68 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 347 @Rider W 64-61 62%    
  Thu, Feb 12 163 Marist L 63-65 42%    
  Sun, Feb 15 160 @Quinnipiac L 67-76 22%    
  Fri, Feb 20 172 Siena L 65-67 44%    
  Sun, Feb 22 168 Iona L 71-73 43%    
  Fri, Feb 27 340 @Canisius W 64-61 59%    
  Sun, Mar 1 353 @Niagara W 67-62 66%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.6 0.7 0.1 7.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.5 3.9 1.0 0.1 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 5.4 4.8 1.2 0.1 13.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.6 5.7 1.4 0.1 14.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 4.9 5.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.0 4.1 4.6 1.6 0.1 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.0 7.2 10.5 13.0 14.7 14.5 12.1 9.3 6.0 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 86.6% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 62.1% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 28.7% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 32.8% 32.8% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.6% 21.5% 21.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5
16-4 1.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
15-5 3.5% 13.9% 13.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 3.0
14-6 6.0% 10.6% 10.6% 15.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.4
13-7 9.3% 8.9% 8.9% 15.5 0.0 0.4 0.4 8.4
12-8 12.1% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.2 0.4 11.5
11-9 14.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 14.0
10-10 14.7% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 14.4
9-11 13.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 12.8
8-12 10.5% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.4
7-13 7.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 7.1
6-14 4.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.0
5-15 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.9
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 95.8 0.0%