IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	-2.0	#185
Expected Predictive Rating	-4.0	#296

Pace	61.5	#345
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.0	#300

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.0	#110

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	14.7%	18.6%	11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.5	14.2	14.8

.500 or above	71.1%	82.5%	62.7%
.500 or above in Conference	78.4%	83.4%	74.7%
Conference Champion	17.9%	23.6%	13.6%
Last Place in Conference	1.7%	0.9%	2.3%

First Four	1.7%	1.7%	1.7%
First Round	13.8%	17.6%	11.0%
Second Round	0.7%	1.1%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.2%	0.4%	0.1%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 42.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 3	3 - 4	3 - 7
Quad 4	15 - 6	17 - 13

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	87	@ Xavier	L	62-66	15%	0 - 1			+4.9	-3.4	+8.2
Nov 09, 2025	220	@ Dartmouth	L	65-67	43%
Nov 16, 2025	154	Harvard	W	63-62	54%
Nov 21, 2025	345	Army	W	70-59	84%
Nov 25, 2025	291	Lehigh	W	67-59	74%
Dec 05, 2025	257	Mount St. Mary's	W	66-60	70%
Dec 07, 2025	236	Manhattan	W	69-64	67%
Dec 13, 2025	281	@ Bryant	W	69-68	53%
Dec 16, 2025	104	@ Georgia Tech	L	59-68	21%
Dec 21, 2025	282	Stony Brook	W	66-59	73%
Dec 29, 2025	195	@ Quinnipiac	L	66-69	39%
Jan 02, 2026	306	@ St. Peter's	W	60-58	58%
Jan 04, 2026	206	Iona	W	68-64	62%
Jan 09, 2026	231	@ Sacred Heart	L	68-69	43%
Jan 11, 2026	325	@ Rider	W	64-60	62%
Jan 17, 2026	298	Fairfield	W	67-59	75%
Jan 19, 2026	277	Merrimack	W	64-57	74%
Jan 22, 2026	176	@ Siena	L	64-67	37%
Jan 24, 2026	195	Quinnipiac	W	69-66	60%
Jan 30, 2026	353	@ Canisius	W	66-60	68%
Feb 01, 2026	343	@ Niagara	W	65-60	67%
Feb 05, 2026	325	Rider	W	67-57	80%
Feb 07, 2026	298	@ Fairfield	W	64-62	56%
Feb 12, 2026	277	@ Merrimack	W	61-60	54%
Feb 15, 2026	176	Siena	W	67-64	57%
Feb 20, 2026	236	@ Manhattan	L	66-67	45%
Feb 22, 2026	231	Sacred Heart	W	71-66	65%
Mar 01, 2026	306	St. Peter's	W	63-55	75%
Projected Record						16 - 12	12 - 8

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.1	1.3	3.0	5.3	4.4	2.1	1.3	0.5		17.9	1st
2nd													0.1	2.0	4.2	4.3	2.9	0.7	0.3				14.5	2nd
3rd												0.3	2.2	3.5	3.8	2.2	0.2						12.1	3rd
4th											0.1	1.7	4.4	2.9	0.9	0.1	0.0						10.2	4th
5th										0.0	0.9	4.4	3.6	1.1	0.0								10.1	5th
6th										0.7	3.6	3.3	1.0	0.1									8.7	6th
7th								0.0	0.3	2.1	2.9	1.3	0.1										6.7	7th
8th								0.3	1.4	2.4	1.4	0.0											5.6	8th
9th						0.0	0.2	1.4	2.2	1.3	0.0												5.1	9th
10th					0.1	0.3	0.7	1.6	1.2	0.2													4.0	10th
11th					0.1	0.4	1.1	0.8	0.2														2.5	11th
12th			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.5	0.4	0.1															1.7	12th
13th		0.1	0.1	0.2	0.3	0.1	0.1																0.8	13th

Total		0.1	0.1	0.4	0.9	1.3	2.5	4.3	5.3	6.7	8.9	11.0	11.3	9.7	10.2	9.6	8.4	5.2	2.4	1.3	0.5			Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.5		0.5
19-1	100.0%	1.3		1.3
18-2	85.8%	2.1		1.8	0.3
17-3	86.0%	4.4		3.5	0.9	0.0
16-4	62.9%	5.3		3.4	1.5	0.3	0.0
15-5	31.4%	3.0		1.2	1.3	0.5	0.1
14-6	12.7%	1.3		0.3	0.6	0.3	0.0	0.1
13-7	0.8%	0.1			0.0		0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	17.9%	17.9		11.9	4.5	1.2	0.2	0.1

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.5%		50.2%	50.2%		10.7							0.0			0.0			0.1	0.0		0.0		0.2
19-1	1.3%		51.6%	51.6%		12.5												0.0	0.3	0.2	0.1			0.6
18-2	2.4%		50.8%	50.8%		13.3													0.2	0.6	0.4	0.1		1.2
17-3	5.2%		37.5%	37.5%		13.8													0.1	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.1	3.2
16-4	8.4%		32.6%	32.6%		14.3													0.1	0.3	1.2	1.0	0.2	5.7
15-5	9.6%		21.8%	21.8%		14.6													0.1	0.1	0.7	0.9	0.3	7.5
14-6	10.2%		19.8%	19.8%		14.9													0.0	0.1	0.5	0.8	0.6	8.2
13-7	9.7%		14.2%	14.2%		15.3														0.1	0.2	0.4	0.7	8.3
12-8	11.3%		11.4%	11.4%		15.7															0.1	0.2	1.0	10.0
11-9	11.0%		4.8%	4.8%		15.9																0.0	0.5	10.5
10-10	8.9%		3.4%	3.4%		15.7																0.1	0.2	8.6
9-11	6.7%		3.4%	3.4%		16.0																	0.2	6.5
8-12	5.3%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	5.2
7-13	4.3%		0.9%	0.9%		16.0																	0.0	4.2
6-14	2.5%																							2.5
5-15	1.3%																							1.3
4-16	0.9%																							0.9
3-17	0.4%																							0.4
2-18	0.1%																							0.1
1-19	0.1%																							0.1
0-20

Total	100%		14.7%	14.7%	0.0%	14.5							0.0			0.0		0.0	1.0	2.1	3.8	3.7	4.0	85.3		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	9.0						33.3			33.3			33.3