Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.1 #153
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #179
Pace 65.4 #266
Improvement -2.6 #294

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #303 D+ C- D+ D+ D
Defense #50 B C+ B- D+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #257 1.16 #169 -1.5 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #47 0.82 #78 +3.8 #30
Three Pointers 36% #282 0.87 #337 -5.1 #330
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #261 -2.8 #261
Freethrows 0.25 #340 79% #8 0.20 #270
Second Chance 25.3% #319 1.12 #58 0.28 #246
Turnovers 18.4% #275
Total Offense -5.1 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #213 1.15 #160 +0.8 #147
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #38 0.68 #47 -1.1 #274
Three Pointers 36% #309 0.86 #18 +5.2 #11
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #46 +5.0 #46
Freethrows 0.36 #319 70% #75 0.25 #298
Second Chance 30.3% #168 0.98 #117 0.30 #138
Turnovers 19.2% #64
Total Defense +5.2 #50

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.3% #316 -1.6% #57
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.4% #230 -8.3% #44
Possession Length 17.7 #220 17.5 #238
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #282 0.12 #30
Improvement +0.9 #134 -3.5 #334

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.7% 27.2% 23.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 24.1% 31.6% 12.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round25.7% 27.2% 23.2%
Second Round0.7% 0.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Away) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 32 - 52 - 6
Quad 419 - 320 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 85 @Xavier L 62 - 66 19% -4  0 - 1 +5 -4 B- C- F +9 A+ C- B+
 Sun, Nov 9 229 @Dartmouth W 75 - 56 54% +8  1 - 1 +18 -1 C C- F +18 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Nov 16 163 Harvard L 54 - 56 63% -1  1 - 2 -5 -15 F+ F F +9 A+ C A
 Fri, Nov 21 339 Army W 76 - 65 90% +4  2 - 2 -3 -1 D C+ C -2 C- A+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 304 Lehigh W 78 - 55 86% +13  3 - 2 +12 +3 B- D- B+ +9 A+ D F
 Fri, Dec 5 298 Mount St. Mary's W 64 - 56 85% +2  4 - 2 1 - 0 -3 -13 D C+ F +10 A+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 7 328 Manhattan W 80 - 68 89% +3  5 - 2 2 - 0 -1 -8 F+ D+ C- +6 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 347 @Bryant W 82 - 74 81% +6  6 - 2 -1 +8 B- C- D -8 F A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 16 113 @Georgia Tech L 76 - 87 28% -8  6 - 3 -5 +10 B- A+ C+ -15 F D A-
 Sun, Dec 21 218 Stony Brook W 70 - 51 73% +13  7 - 3 +13 -2 D- B- B+ +16 A+ A B-
 Mon, Dec 29 190 @Quinnipiac L 58 - 64 46% -3  7 - 4 2 - 1 -5 -11 F C F +6 A+ D- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 231 @St. Peter's L 59 - 69 54% -3  7 - 5 2 - 2 -11 -12 F F C+ +1 A F C
 Sun, Jan 4 235 Iona W 83 - 38 75% +21  8 - 5 3 - 2 +38 +8 D A+ A+ +30 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 9 277 @Sacred Heart W 76 - 72 64% -2  9 - 5 4 - 2 +0 +6 C- A- C -6 D+ F+ B
 Sun, Jan 11 352 @Rider W 71 - 49 83% +12  10 - 5 5 - 2 +12 -3 C- F C +16 A- A- C
 Sat, Jan 17 267 Fairfield W 82 - 67 80% +13  11 - 5 6 - 2 +6 +8 B A+ D- -1 A+ F+ C-
 Mon, Jan 19 194 Merrimack L 55 - 68 69% -6  11 - 6 6 - 3 -18 -14 F D C- -5 D A- B
 Thu, Jan 22 175 @Siena L 50 - 69 43% -4  11 - 7 6 - 4 -17 -15 F F A- -5 B+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 190 Quinnipiac W 71 - 64 68% +8  12 - 7 7 - 4 +2 +2 B- D C- +1 B A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 349 @Canisius W 88 - 86 OT 81% -1  13 - 7 8 - 4 -7 +8 A- F+ D+ -16 F F D
 Sun, Feb 1 342 @Niagara W 58 - 46 80% +5  14 - 7 9 - 4 +3 -10 F F+ B +15 A+ C+ A+
 Thu, Feb 5 352 Rider W 81 - 52 93% +18  15 - 7 10 - 4 +13 +15 A+ C- D +3 B+ C- C
 Sat, Feb 7 267 @Fairfield W 70 - 67 62%
 Thu, Feb 12 194 @Merrimack L 62 - 63 47%
 Sun, Feb 15 175 Siena W 67 - 63 65%
 Fri, Feb 20 328 @Manhattan W 75 - 67 76%
 Sun, Feb 22 277 Sacred Heart W 76 - 66 82%
 Sun, Mar 1 231 St. Peter's W 67 - 60 74%
Totals 19 - 9 14 - 6 +0 -5 D+ C- D+ +5 B C+ B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1.6 12.7 9.8 24.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.0 15.1 13.3 0.7 30.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 8.9 13.9 1.0 24.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.8 9.5 1.4 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.9 2.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.2 1.8 7.3 21.3 32.1 26.9 10.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 93.8% 9.8    6.7 3.0 0.2
15-5 47.1% 12.7    2.6 6.4 3.2 0.5
14-6 5.1% 1.6    0.1 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 24.1% 24.1 9.3 9.6 4.1 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 10.5% 33.0% 33.0% 13.3 0.4 1.9 1.1 0.1 7.0
15-5 26.9% 30.0% 30.0% 14.0 0.0 1.8 4.5 1.8 0.0 18.8
14-6 32.1% 26.3% 26.3% 14.4 0.0 0.6 4.2 3.5 0.1 23.6
13-7 21.3% 20.3% 20.3% 14.7 0.1 1.3 2.7 0.3 17.0
12-8 7.3% 15.8% 15.8% 14.9 0.2 0.7 0.2 6.1
11-9 1.8% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.6
10-10 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 25.7% 25.7% 0.0% 14.2 74.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.5% 100.0% 13.3 10.7 55.5 31.2 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.0%