Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#158
Expected Predictive Rating+6.6#85
Pace77.3#27
Improvement+2.3#62

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#215
First Shot-2.5#246
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#127
Layup/Dunks+1.0#145
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#252
Freethrows-2.5#316
Improvement+0.7#126

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot+3.8#66
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#323
Layups/Dunks-2.3#257
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#85
Freethrows+1.7#74
Improvement+1.6#79
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.4% 26.2% 20.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.1
.500 or above 99.5% 99.8% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.4% 98.2%
Conference Champion 50.0% 57.2% 33.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.4% 26.1% 20.2%
Second Round1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Away) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 6
Quad 418 - 323 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 18 @St. John's L 74-108 5%     -21.0   0 - 1 -14.5 -1.1 -7.8
  Thu, Nov 6 281 Central Connecticut St. W 71-49 82%     11.7   1 - 1 +12.5 -4.3 +17.1
  Tue, Nov 11 84 Yale L 60-97 36%     -17.9   1 - 2 -33.2 -17.4 -15.1
  Sun, Nov 16 340 @Maine W 70-64 79%     -1.6   2 - 2 -2.4 -2.8 +0.3
  Sun, Nov 23 82 @Pittsburgh W 83-75 18%     5.2   3 - 2 +17.8 +15.8 +2.2
  Tue, Nov 25 53 @Central Florida L 91-102 11%     -2.2   3 - 3 +2.3 +13.0 -9.5
  Sun, Nov 30 337 Stonehill W 76-62 90%     8.3   4 - 3 -0.2 +0.5 -0.5
  Fri, Dec 5 178 @Iona W 89-68 43%     7.3   5 - 3 1 - 0 +22.8 +13.9 +8.0
  Sun, Dec 7 348 Rider W 72-58 92%     14.6   6 - 3 2 - 0 -1.4 -3.7 +2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 304 Umass Lowell W 75-71 85%     -1.0   7 - 3 -7.1 -9.3 +2.0
  Wed, Dec 17 227 @Monmouth W 85-75 54%     15.1   8 - 3 +9.2 +9.3 -0.4
  Sun, Dec 21 107 @Hofstra L 66-74 26%     -1.8   8 - 4 -1.1 -0.8 -0.6
  Mon, Dec 29 157 Marist W 64-58 61%     3.0   9 - 4 3 - 0 +3.1 -3.8 +7.0
  Fri, Jan 2 311 @Manhattan W 83-77 70%    
  Sun, Jan 4 291 Mount St. Mary's W 79-69 82%    
  Sun, Jan 11 269 @Sacred Heart W 80-77 61%    
  Wed, Jan 14 285 St. Peter's W 75-65 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 249 @Merrimack W 72-70 58%    
  Mon, Jan 19 311 Manhattan W 86-74 86%    
  Thu, Jan 22 291 @Mount St. Mary's W 76-72 64%    
  Sat, Jan 24 157 @Marist L 68-71 39%    
  Fri, Jan 30 269 Sacred Heart W 83-74 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 289 @Fairfield W 78-74 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 346 Canisius W 77-62 91%    
  Sat, Feb 7 352 Niagara W 79-63 93%    
  Fri, Feb 13 183 @Siena L 72-73 44%    
  Sun, Feb 15 249 Merrimack W 75-67 77%    
  Sun, Feb 22 289 Fairfield W 81-71 81%    
  Fri, Feb 27 352 @Niagara W 76-66 81%    
  Sun, Mar 1 346 @Canisius W 74-65 79%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.7 6.5 12.4 14.2 9.7 4.3 1.0 50.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 5.9 8.3 5.8 1.7 0.2 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.1 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.3 2.1 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.9 5.4 9.3 13.8 16.8 18.5 15.9 9.9 4.3 1.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
19-1 100.0% 4.3    4.3 0.1
18-2 97.9% 9.7    9.1 0.6
17-3 89.5% 14.2    11.4 2.8 0.1
16-4 66.9% 12.4    7.4 4.2 0.7
15-5 38.6% 6.5    2.0 3.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 12.2% 1.7    0.3 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 50.0% 50.0 35.5 11.3 2.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.0% 45.2% 45.2% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6
19-1 4.3% 38.9% 38.9% 12.8 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 2.7
18-2 9.9% 35.3% 35.3% 13.2 0.4 1.9 1.2 0.0 6.4
17-3 15.9% 31.2% 31.2% 13.7 0.2 1.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.0
16-4 18.5% 27.2% 27.2% 13.9 0.0 1.4 2.7 0.9 0.0 13.5
15-5 16.8% 21.4% 21.4% 14.2 0.0 0.4 2.1 1.0 0.0 13.2
14-6 13.8% 18.9% 18.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.1 11.2
13-7 9.3% 15.8% 15.8% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.1 7.8
12-8 5.4% 14.3% 14.3% 15.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 4.6
11-9 2.9% 6.4% 6.4% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.7
10-10 1.2% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.2
9-11 0.6% 8.2% 8.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.6
8-12 0.2% 1.4% 1.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.4% 24.4% 0.0% 13.8 0.1 1.5 6.9 10.2 5.3 0.4 75.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.0 16.9 66.2 16.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%