Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.9#133
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#119
Pace72.5#74
Improvement+0.1#175

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#166
First Shot-2.2#256
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#32
Layup/Dunks-1.8#252
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#80
Freethrows-1.2#269
Improvement-0.3#245

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#122
First Shot+2.0#111
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#206
Layups/Dunks+3.0#69
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#339
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#132
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement+0.4#119
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.5% 18.0% 15.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.6 13.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.3%
Conference Champion 26.1% 29.0% 11.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.5% 18.0% 15.3%
Second Round1.8% 1.9% 1.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 35 - 26 - 5
Quad 417 - 422 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 13, 2022 263   St. Peter's W 70-60 84%    
  Nov 07, 2022 198   @ Rhode Island W 67-62 52%     1 - 0 +6.3 -6.3 +12.4
  Nov 10, 2022 340   @ Stonehill W 102-95 83%     2 - 0 -1.3 +20.0 -21.7
  Nov 13, 2022 329   @ Central Connecticut St. W 72-70 80%     3 - 0 -5.2 -5.1 -0.2
  Nov 15, 2022 275   Dartmouth W 81-72 84%     4 - 0 +0.4 -1.9 +1.4
  Nov 25, 2022 135   Stephen F. Austin W 58-44 50%     5 - 0 +15.8 -14.3 +29.9
  Nov 26, 2022 120   Montana St. W 70-53 47%     6 - 0 +19.7 +0.4 +19.4
  Nov 27, 2022 107   Hofstra L 70-72 43%     6 - 1 +1.8 -6.4 +8.3
  Dec 04, 2022 239   Niagara L 60-64 79%     6 - 2 0 - 1 -10.7 -3.4 -8.1
  Dec 07, 2022 326   @ Holy Cross W 75-71 79%     7 - 2 -2.6 +2.1 -4.7
  Dec 10, 2022 261   Lafayette W 76-63 83%     8 - 2 +4.9 +7.9 -2.1
  Dec 18, 2022 263   @ St. Peter's L 56-63 67%     8 - 3 0 - 2 -9.7 -10.9 +0.6
  Dec 22, 2022 45   @ Penn St. L 68-77 15%     8 - 4 +4.2 +0.1 +4.1
  Dec 30, 2022 151   Siena L 76-83 64%     8 - 5 0 - 3 -8.9 +1.5 -10.3
  Jan 01, 2023 294   @ Manhattan W 84-65 72%     9 - 5 1 - 3 +14.7 +12.0 +3.4
  Jan 06, 2023 196   @ Rider W 72-63 52%     10 - 5 2 - 3 +10.3 +3.2 +7.7
  Jan 08, 2023 85   Iona W 81-58 45%     11 - 5 3 - 3 +26.1 +11.6 +15.0
  Jan 13, 2023 263   St. Peter's W 58-51 83%     12 - 5 4 - 3 -1.2 -10.2 +9.7
  Jan 15, 2023 290   @ Mount St. Mary's W 58-51 72%     13 - 5 5 - 3 +2.9 -12.6 +15.6
  Jan 22, 2023 281   Canisius W 87-82 85%     14 - 5 6 - 3 -4.1 +4.8 -9.2
  Jan 29, 2023 85   @ Iona L 72-78 26%     14 - 6 6 - 4 +2.6 -1.5 +4.6
  Jan 31, 2023 316   Marist W 72-66 88%     15 - 6 7 - 4 -5.0 -2.2 -2.6
  Feb 03, 2023 232   Fairfield W 70-62 79%    
  Feb 05, 2023 290   Mount St. Mary's W 72-61 87%    
  Feb 10, 2023 239   @ Niagara W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 12, 2023 281   @ Canisius W 75-69 69%    
  Feb 17, 2023 151   @ Siena L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 19, 2023 196   Rider W 74-68 72%    
  Feb 26, 2023 294   Manhattan W 78-66 87%    
  Mar 02, 2023 232   @ Fairfield W 68-65 60%    
  Mar 04, 2023 316   @ Marist W 71-64 74%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.8 8.7 11.4 4.0 26.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 10.3 12.6 3.0 27.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.9 9.4 11.7 3.1 0.1 26.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.6 6.5 1.8 0.0 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 8.9 18.1 25.5 24.4 14.5 4.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 4.0    3.3 0.7
16-4 79.0% 11.4    5.8 4.9 0.7 0.0
15-5 35.8% 8.7    1.9 4.3 2.3 0.3
14-6 7.0% 1.8    0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 26.1% 26.1 11.2 10.5 3.8 0.6 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 4.0% 27.8% 27.7% 0.1% 12.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 2.9 0.1%
16-4 14.5% 24.4% 24.4% 13.2 0.0 0.4 2.0 1.1 0.0 10.9
15-5 24.4% 19.4% 19.4% 13.5 0.2 2.0 2.3 0.2 19.7
14-6 25.5% 17.4% 17.4% 13.8 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.5 21.1
13-7 18.1% 13.6% 13.6% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 15.6
12-8 8.9% 10.2% 10.2% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 8.0
11-9 3.6% 7.7% 7.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.3
10-10 0.9% 6.1% 6.1% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 0.1% 8.1% 8.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 13.6 0.0 1.1 6.3 8.2 1.8 0.1 82.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 27.8% 12.6 0.7 10.5 15.0 1.6