Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating -2.5 205
Results Rating -1.3 182
Consistency 0.16 234
Pace 74.7 36
Improvement -2.0 258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ 268 D+ C+ C D+ C-
Defense C+ 135 C C- C C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 161 D+ 54% 279 -1.1 226
2 Pt. Jumpers 45% 100 D- 31% 347 -0.2 190
Three Pointers 37% 276 C 34% 158 -2.0 249
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.4 242 D+ -2.9 282
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.95 288
Second Chance C+ 31.9% 138 C 1.03 176 C+ 0.33 136
Turnovers from Steals C- 10.0% 243
Other Turnovers C+ 6.9% 131
Turnovers C 16.9% 187
Freethrows C- 0.29 240 D 69% 298 D+ 0.20 269
Total Offense D+ -3.8 268

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 49% 159 F 16.0% 355
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 192 C 5.6% 223
Three Pointers D 77% 322 B- 0.5% 76
Total C- 53% 236 F+ 7.8% 344

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 85 C+ 57% 142 +1.8 234
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 200 A- 32% 14 -1.5 67
Three Pointers 38% 274 D 37% 295 -0.2 173
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.4 241 C -0.3 167
1st FG Attempt C 1.02 177
Second Chance D+ 33.1% 294 C 1.02 167 C- 0.34 249
Turnovers from Steals B- 11.0% 73
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 320
Turnovers C 17.2% 156
Freethrows C+ 0.29 142 C- 73% 223 C+ 0.21 140
Total Defense C+ +1.3 135

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C- 50% 213 C+ 12.5% 113
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 21% 96 C+ 5.9% 104
Three Pointers C- 86% 244 C 1.0% 138
Total C- 57% 214 B- 6.8% 83

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.2 65 17.5 215
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 91 0.17 181
Consistency 0.12 168 0.13 234
Improvement -2.2 296 +0.2 171

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 228 203 175
Results Rating Rank 211 184 128
Conference Record 11 - 9 13 - 7 13 - 7
Conference Finish 5 4 2
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 15
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14% 16% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 1%
First Round14% 16% 10%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 415 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 21 @St. John's L 74 - 108 2% -22  0% 0 - 1 D- -13 C- -2 C C- F D -6 F C+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 303 Central Connecticut St. W 71 - 49 80% +12  90% 1 - 1 B +11 F -10 D+ F A+ A+ +21 A+ C- F+
 Tue, Nov 11 87 Yale L 60 - 97 27% -18  17% 1 - 2 F -33 F -19 F C+ F F -13 F F B+
 Sun, Nov 16 343 @Maine W 70 - 64 75% -2  40% 2 - 2 C- -4 D -5 F B- C+ C+ +2 D- A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 98 @Pittsburgh W 83 - 75 16% +5  87% 3 - 2 A- +16 A +13 A+ A- F B- +3 D D+ A
 Tue, Nov 25 44 @Central Florida L 91 - 102 7% -2  39% 3 - 3 C+ +4 A- +11 A F B+ D -6 C- C D
 Sun, Nov 30 341 Stonehill W 76 - 62 88% +8  76% 4 - 3 C -1 C +0 A F D C -1 B- F C+
 Fri, Dec 5 248 @Iona W 89 - 68 47% +7  89% 5 - 3 1 - 0 A +19 A- +10 C+ A+ C- A +9 A+ F C-
 Sun, Dec 7 356 Rider W 72 - 58 91% +15  99% 6 - 3 2 - 0 C- -4 F -10 F B B+ A- +7 C C B-
 Sat, Dec 13 311 Umass Lowell W 75 - 71 81% -1  30% 7 - 3 D+ -8 F -12 F B C B +4 F A+ A
 Wed, Dec 17 199 @Monmouth W 85 - 75 37% +15  99% 8 - 3 B +11 A- +10 B B- A- C+ +1 C- A C+
 Sun, Dec 21 106 @Hofstra L 66 - 74 18% -2  19% 8 - 4 C -1 D+ -4 F A B B- +3 A+ F B+
 Mon, Dec 29 184 Marist W 64 - 58 58% +3  79% 9 - 4 3 - 0 C +1 D- -7 F A F+ A +8 A D A
 Fri, Jan 2 321 @Manhattan L 79 - 80 68% +8  91% 9 - 5 3 - 1 D -8 D -5 F A+ F D+ -3 F A C-
 Sun, Jan 4 282 Mount St. Mary's W 80 - 69 76% +6  87% 10 - 5 4 - 1 C +1 C+ +2 A- D+ D+ C -1 A- F F+
 Sun, Jan 11 286 @Sacred Heart W 70 - 60 57% +0  49% 11 - 5 5 - 1 B- +6 D+ -4 D F+ B+ A +10 B- C- A
 Wed, Jan 14 238 St. Peter's L 70 - 74 68% -4  22% 11 - 6 5 - 2 D -11 D- -7 D+ C- A D+ -4 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 17 164 @Merrimack L 71 - 83 31% -12  2% 11 - 7 5 - 3 D -9 C +1 D- C A+ F -11 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 321 Manhattan W 98 - 92 OT 84% -1  49% 12 - 7 6 - 3 D+ -7 C +0 C- A+ D+ F+ -8 D D- D
 Thu, Jan 22 282 @Mount St. Mary's W 77 - 62 55% +12  92% 13 - 7 7 - 3 B +11 C+ +3 B F B- A +9 D+ A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 184 @Marist L 64 - 71 35% -8  3% 13 - 8 7 - 4 D+ -6 C- -2 D+ D- A+ D+ -4 F C+ C+
 Fri, Jan 30 286 Sacred Heart L 91 - 98 77% -1  39% 13 - 9 7 - 5 F+ -17 C +2 D B+ B F -18 F B- F
 Sun, Feb 1 257 @Fairfield W 72 - 65 50% -2  27% 14 - 9 8 - 5 C+ +5 D -5 D+ B- F+ A +10 A C+ F+
 Thu, Feb 5 345 Canisius W 75 - 60 89% +13  97% 15 - 9 9 - 5 C -1 F+ -9 D A F A- +7 B+ F C+
 Sat, Feb 7 340 Niagara W 56 - 55 88% +5  81% 16 - 9 10 - 5 D- -14 F -16 F F F B- +2 C F A+
 Fri, Feb 13 189 @Siena W 74 - 62 36% +6  94% 17 - 9 11 - 5 B+ +13 C+ +2 C- C+ A+ A+ +12 A+ C- D+
 Sun, Feb 15 164 Merrimack L 49 - 56 53% -0  35% 17 - 10 11 - 6 D -10 F -23 F B- F A+ +12 A- A C+
 Sun, Feb 22 257 Fairfield L 79 - 85 72% -2  22% 17 - 11 11 - 7 D- -14 C- -1 D+ B B F -14 D- F C+
 Fri, Feb 27 340 @Niagara W 72 - 65 73%
 Sun, Mar 1 345 @Canisius W 72 - 65 76%
Totals 18 - 12 12 - 8 -3 D+ -4 C+ D+ C- C+ +1 C D D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ D+ D- C D+ 39% 45% 37% C- D+ C+ C C+ C C- D D+ C+ C+ A- D C 42% 20% 38% C- C D+ C C- C C+ C- C+
1.03 54% 31% 34% -3 0 0.95 32% 1.0 .33 17% .29 69% .20 1.07 57% 32% 37% 0 0 1.02 33% 1.0 .34 17% .29 73% .21
Nov
3		 St. John's C- D B D+ C+ 42% 30% 28% D+ C B F C- F B- D C+ D D- A+ F F 64% 7% 29% F F F+ A C+ B+ F A D+
0.89 46% 41% 31% -5 -1 0.89 33% 0.7 .23 26% .31 68% .21 1.29 65% 25% 47% +9 +4 1.28 43% 1.0 .43 17% .49 65% .32
Nov
6		 Central Connecticut St. F D- C+ B- D+ 47% 17% 37% C D+ D F F A+ F F F A+ A+ A A+ A+ 26% 34% 40% B- A+ C- C- C- F+ C+ A+ B+
1.03 50% 40% 36% -2 +1 1.00 26% 0.6 .16 7% .11 71% .08 0.71 36% 28% 19% -18 -3 0.60 28% 1.0 .28 13% .23 64% .15
Nov
11		 Yale F B+ F F F 35% 23% 42% C- F B+ D- C+ F F+ F F F D F F F 48% 19% 33% D+ F F C- F B+ A C- A
0.84 67% 25% 23% -7 -1 0.87 35% 0.9 .32 24% .20 64% .13 1.36 64% 60% 59% +19 +1 1.42 46% 1.3 .58 18% .24 79% .19
Nov
16		 Maine D F F F F 44% 26% 30% D+ F B+ C- B- C+ A+ D+ A+ C+ B- D- D D- 45% 19% 36% D D- D- A+ A+ F D+ D+ D
1.00 45% 23% 20% -16 0 0.70 44% 1.0 .44 17% .54 68% .36 0.92 52% 44% 35% -1 +1 1.02 24% 0.2 .05 16% .36 67% .24
Nov
23		 Pittsburgh A C- A+ A+ A+ 37% 26% 37% D+ A+ B A A- F A+ F A+ B- F A+ C+ D+ 39% 9% 52% D- D F B+ D+ A F A- D
1.21 56% 55% 63% +19 -1 1.40 30% 1.1 .35 22% .45 67% .30 1.10 78% 0% 33% +4 +2 1.13 45% 0.9 .39 22% .37 60% .22
Nov
25		 Central Florida A- C F A+ A+ 31% 24% 45% C- A F+ F F B+ A+ A+ A+ D F A+ D C 50% 19% 31% F+ C- C- C+ C D F B- F
1.16 56% 25% 52% +9 -1 1.18 17% 0.7 .11 14% .52 83% .43 1.30 72% 18% 39% +6 +1 1.16 38% 1.1 .43 13% .40 74% .29
Nov
30		 Stonehill C B+ F A+ A 51% 22% 27% C+ A D F F D F A+ D C A+ C- B C+ 26% 26% 48% A B- F F F C+ A A+ A
1.10 64% 25% 53% +8 +1 1.20 23% 0.7 .17 14% .20 83% .17 0.90 38% 38% 29% -8 -2 0.82 39% 1.2 .47 22% .15 50% .07
Dec
5		 Iona A- A D D C+ 41% 20% 39% C C+ A+ B+ A+ C- D C D+ A A- B A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% D+ A+ F D F C- F C+ F
1.22 71% 33% 30% +2 0 1.07 47% 1.1 .53 16% .23 71% .16 0.93 48% 33% 14% -17 +1 0.70 33% 1.1 .37 16% .36 68% .25
Dec
7		 Rider F F F+ C- F 59% 11% 30% B F C A B B+ F C- F A- A+ B- F D 26% 50% 24% A+ C C+ C- C B- A+ A+ A+
1.05 45% 33% 35% -7 +3 0.93 33% 1.2 .41 12% .15 67% .10 0.85 36% 33% 46% -4 -5 0.85 30% 0.9 .27 19% .14 50% .07
Dec
13		 Umass Lowell F B- F F F 43% 29% 27% D- F B- B B C A+ F A+ B B B- F F 50% 15% 35% F+ F A+ A+ A+ A A A+ A
1.00 64% 27% 21% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.2 .42 13% .45 66% .29 0.95 50% 38% 56% +7 +2 1.19 22% 0.5 .11 25% .23 54% .13
Dec
17		 Monmouth A- A+ F B- B+ 44% 22% 35% C- B B- C+ B- A- C F+ C- C+ F A+ A+ C+ 57% 18% 24% F C- D- A+ A C+ F+ F F
1.18 75% 25% 37% +6 0 1.15 35% 1.0 .35 15% .30 67% .20 1.04 68% 11% 25% -3 +2 1.00 36% 0.5 .19 18% .37 86% .32
Dec
21		 Hofstra D+ D- C F F 37% 21% 42% B- F D+ A+ A B B B- B B- A+ B- A+ A+ 38% 12% 50% F A+ F F F B+ F B- F
0.98 47% 36% 14% -17 0 0.67 27% 1.6 .44 12% .34 75% .25 1.10 42% 33% 24% -14 +1 0.76 48% 1.3 .64 19% .42 74% .31
Dec
29		 Marist D- F D- D F 31% 33% 35% D- F A B- A F+ B- D C A B- A+ A+ A+ 50% 23% 27% F A F+ C+ D A A- C+ A-
0.94 40% 31% 29% -10 -2 0.77 40% 1.1 .43 22% .37 65% .24 0.85 54% 25% 14% -13 +1 0.77 32% 1.1 .34 22% .17 78% .13
Jan
2		 Manhattan D A F C+ F 26% 38% 36% F F C+ A+ A+ F F+ A+ C- D+ C- F D+ F 40% 23% 38% C- F C A+ A C- B- F D+
1.10 71% 20% 37% -2 -3 0.92 38% 1.7 .65 21% .18 100% .18 1.12 57% 58% 35% +5 0 1.11 26% 0.7 .18 15% .26 94% .25
Jan
4		 Mount St. Mary's C+ D- A+ A+ A 34% 30% 36% D A- A F D+ D+ A+ B A+ C B- A+ C+ A- 28% 20% 52% A A- F F F F+ A+ F A
1.13 50% 57% 41% +7 -1 1.13 41% 0.6 .26 16% .45 78% .35 0.97 53% 9% 32% -9 -1 0.83 39% 1.4 .53 18% .17 80% .14
Jan
11		 Sacred Heart D+ B- D- A- D+ 37% 35% 28% F D D+ F F+ B+ C- F D+ A F+ A+ D+ B- 26% 20% 54% B- B- D- B C- A C A+ A-
1.08 65% 32% 40% +3 -2 1.04 28% 0.8 .22 11% .24 64% .16 0.93 67% 0% 36% -4 -1 0.93 31% 0.9 .28 23% .28 57% .16
Jan
14		 St. Peter's D- D D B C- 40% 27% 33% D- D+ F+ A+ C- A C- F F+ D+ B- F+ F F 41% 25% 34% C F A- A+ A+ C+ F D- F
1.00 53% 31% 38% -2 -1 0.96 27% 1.3 .36 14% .40 63% .25 1.06 50% 45% 47% +5 0 1.11 28% 0.7 .20 19% .46 81% .37
Jan
17		 Merrimack C F+ D- F+ F+ 53% 24% 22% B- D- F A+ C A+ A+ C+ A+ F A A+ F F 37% 9% 53% C- F F+ F F B F B+ F
1.06 46% 33% 27% -10 +1 0.84 29% 1.4 .42 13% .45 73% .33 1.24 44% 25% 52% +8 +1 1.21 30% 1.4 .41 18% .49 74% .36
Jan
19		 Manhattan C D C+ A+ C- 40% 22% 38% C- C- B+ A A+ D+ A+ F A+ F+ B+ A- F D+ 47% 22% 32% D- D F+ C D- D D F F
1.22 55% 42% 43% +4 0 1.11 44% 1.3 .59 16% .48 66% .31 1.15 46% 31% 47% -1 0 1.02 33% 1.1 .36 14% .33 91% .30
Jan
22		 Mount St. Mary's C+ C F A+ B 45% 22% 33% B- B F D+ F B- D+ F F A D- A+ D+ D+ 43% 13% 43% C- D+ A+ A+ A+ C F D F
1.10 56% 17% 50% +2 0 1.07 19% 1.0 .19 13% .31 58% .18 0.89 65% 0% 35% -1 +1 1.02 17% 0.4 .07 23% .39 71% .28
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
24		 Marist C- D- F+ D D- 51% 18% 31% A- D+ C F D- A+ D B- D+ D+ F+ D- C+ F 45% 28% 28% D+ F A+ F C+ C+ D- B D
0.97 50% 30% 29% -8 +1 0.89 29% 0.7 .20 11% .30 72% .22 1.07 67% 46% 31% +5 0 1.11 15% 1.8 .27 18% .30 75% .22
Jan
30		 Sacred Heart C C A+ D- D 32% 12% 56% C D B- B+ B+ B A+ C- A F C F F F 29% 11% 60% D F A- F+ B- F F D F
1.20 61% 57% 31% +1 +1 1.05 35% 1.2 .43 12% .36 71% .26 1.30 56% 50% 42% +8 +1 1.20 20% 1.2 .23 9% .45 81% .36
Feb
1		 Fairfield D B- B+ F D+ 62% 17% 21% B- D+ D+ A+ B- F+ F F F A A+ B+ F A+ 52% 21% 27% D- A F+ A- C+ F+ B A+ A
1.05 63% 44% 18% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.3 .39 19% .16 67% .11 0.95 31% 33% 40% -13 +1 0.79 39% 0.8 .30 12% .21 54% .12
Feb
5		 Canisius F+ F B B- D 30% 20% 50% D D C A+ A F A+ C A+ A- A+ A+ F A- 41% 24% 35% C- B+ C+ F F C+ F B+ F
1.02 46% 44% 36% 0 -1 1.00 32% 1.5 .48 22% .51 72% .37 0.82 35% 8% 41% -13 0 0.76 26% 1.3 .34 20% .39 65% .26
Feb
7		 Niagara F F F A- F 36% 18% 45% C+ F A- F F F B D+ B- B- D B- B- C- 32% 22% 46% A C F C F A+ C C+ C+
0.95 38% 13% 40% -8 0 0.86 42% 0.4 .18 20% .34 75% .25 0.93 62% 33% 32% -2 -1 0.98 35% 0.8 .29 25% .23 70% .16
Feb
13		 Siena C+ F C+ A- C- 30% 20% 50% C- C- C C+ C+ A+ A- F C A+ A+ A- A- A+ 47% 24% 29% F+ A+ C+ D C- D+ C+ F D
1.11 40% 40% 40% -1 -1 1.00 33% 1.0 .33 10% .35 57% .20 0.93 38% 33% 27% -14 0 0.75 28% 1.1 .31 15% .28 88% .25
Feb
15		 Merrimack F F+ F F F 30% 41% 30% F F A+ F+ B- F B B- B A+ B C A+ A 48% 19% 33% C+ A- A+ C A C+ D+ F F+
0.75 46% 11% 8% -26 -3 0.43 52% 0.9 .45 25% .39 74% .28 0.86 50% 38% 21% -10 +1 0.83 11% 1.0 .11 17% .37 90% .33
Feb
22		 Fairfield C- D+ D B- D+ 51% 12% 37% B- D+ A D B B A+ F B- F D+ F A+ D- 49% 29% 22% C D- F F F C+ F F F
1.16 54% 33% 37% -1 +2 1.04 43% 0.9 .40 13% .45 52% .24 1.24 58% 64% 18% +2 0 1.06 42% 1.3 .54 16% .40 87% .35



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 21.2 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.6 27.6 28.2 3rd
4th 16.7 7.0 23.7 4th
5th 4.1 19.9 23.9 5th
6th 3.0 3.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 7.1 37.1 55.8 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 55.8% 17.3% 17.3% 14.6 0.3 3.5 5.4 0.5 46.2
12-8 37.1% 10.1% 10.1% 15.3 0.3 2.1 1.4 33.4
11-9 7.1% 8.6% 8.6% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 6.5
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 14.8 86.0 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 9.7% 100.0% 14.6 2.8 36.7 55.9 4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 14.2%
Lose Out 1.8%