Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
25 San Diego St. 92.0%   7   5 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +13.8      +5.4 47 +8.4 23 72.1 93 +16.1 24 0.0 1
34 Utah St. 64.6%   10   5 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 7 12 - 6 +11.1      +7.1 26 +4.0 73 76.7 36 +14.7 28 0.0 1
57 New Mexico 54.2%   11   7 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 11 - 7 +9.2      +6.2 38 +3.0 89 77.1 28 +19.2 10 0.0 1
61 Boise St. 36.0%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +8.4      -0.8 193 +9.1 11 65.6 262 +7.5 77 0.0 1
69 Nevada 36.1%   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +7.9      +4.9 54 +3.0 87 71.5 109 +12.6 41 0.0 1
72 Colorado St. 20.9%   6 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +7.6      +3.1 90 +4.6 56 66.5 237 +6.0 96 0.0 1
78 UNLV 30.1%   6 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 10 - 8 +7.0      -0.7 190 +7.7 28 74.7 58 +13.9 31 0.0 1
146 Wyoming 1.8%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 +1.4      +2.3 104 -0.8 205 63.1 324 -7.4 285 0.0 1
154 Fresno St. 1.4%   0 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 19 6 - 12 +0.9      -3.4 277 +4.3 61 61.1 345 -9.5 301 0.0 1
185 San Jose St. 0.9%   5 - 2 0 - 0 12 - 18 5 - 13 -0.7      +1.9 118 -2.6 256 61.0 348 +2.2 141 0.0 1
219 Air Force 0.3%   5 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 20 4 - 14 -3.2      -3.9 295 +0.7 157 60.3 351 -4.9 252 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.3 45.7 21.6 13.4 8.1 5.1 3.3 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah St. 3.0 29.1 22.2 15.8 11.3 8.6 6.1 3.5 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1
New Mexico 3.8 15.7 18.3 17.0 15.1 12.2 9.2 6.2 3.7 1.8 0.7 0.2
Boise St. 4.7 9.0 12.0 13.5 14.4 14.1 12.9 11.0 7.3 3.6 1.7 0.4
Nevada 4.6 9.2 12.4 13.3 14.5 14.6 13.2 10.4 6.7 3.5 1.6 0.6
Colorado St. 4.6 8.9 12.8 14.4 15.5 14.4 12.9 9.7 6.1 3.4 1.5 0.4
UNLV 5.2 6.3 9.0 11.5 13.5 13.7 14.4 13.0 9.3 5.6 2.8 1.0
Wyoming 8.1 0.5 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.5 8.5 12.9 17.8 19.9 17.0 11.1
Fresno St. 7.9 0.5 1.5 2.7 4.0 6.1 8.8 13.1 18.2 18.3 16.2 10.5
San Jose St. 8.8 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 5.6 9.3 15.6 21.4 23.7 17.8
Air Force 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.8 9.8 17.4 25.8 38.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.3 8.8 12.4 15.8 16.6 15.5 11.3 6.1 1.9
Utah St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.9 6.1 9.6 11.6 13.9 15.1 14.2 10.9 6.9 3.1 0.8
New Mexico 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.1 6.6 9.6 12.6 14.8 15.1 13.4 9.9 6.2 2.9 1.1 0.2
Boise St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.7 4.7 7.3 10.4 12.8 14.4 14.1 12.2 9.0 5.7 3.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
Nevada 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.4 4.5 7.0 10.1 13.2 14.3 14.1 12.3 9.4 6.1 3.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
Colorado St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.0 6.7 9.6 12.8 14.8 14.5 12.8 10.0 6.3 3.5 1.3 0.3 0.1
UNLV 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.8 6.3 9.5 11.9 13.9 14.1 12.9 10.1 7.3 4.1 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Wyoming 6 - 12 0.4 1.8 5.0 8.7 12.2 15.0 14.5 13.0 10.9 8.1 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 12 0.4 1.8 4.6 8.1 11.5 14.1 14.4 13.3 11.1 8.4 5.5 3.6 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 5 - 13 0.8 3.6 8.0 12.8 16.2 16.6 14.1 10.9 7.6 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 14 2.9 8.9 15.3 18.5 18.2 14.6 9.8 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 45.7% 33.3 9.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 29.1% 19.2 7.7 1.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 15.7% 8.9 4.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 9.0% 4.8 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nevada 9.2% 4.9 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 8.9% 4.7 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
UNLV 6.3% 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 92.0% 31.1% 60.9% 7   3.3 5.3 6.9 9.9 10.4 11.0 11.6 10.5 10.0 8.2 4.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 88.4%
Utah St. 64.6% 18.8% 45.8% 10   0.8 1.4 2.1 3.7 4.4 5.1 6.2 6.8 9.1 11.0 10.3 3.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 35.4 56.4%
New Mexico 54.2% 12.1% 42.1% 11   0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.5 3.5 4.5 5.9 8.8 10.4 11.7 3.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 45.8 47.9%
Boise St. 36.0% 9.7% 26.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.8 4.7 6.3 8.1 7.2 2.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 64.0 29.1%
Nevada 36.1% 8.9% 27.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.5 3.5 5.8 7.9 8.9 3.2 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 63.9 29.8%
Colorado St. 20.9% 8.1% 12.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 4.1 5.4 2.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.4 79.1 13.9%
UNLV 30.1% 7.2% 22.9% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.7 4.7 6.5 7.8 3.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 69.9 24.7%
Wyoming 1.8% 1.6% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.9 98.2 0.3%
Fresno St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 98.6 0.1%
San Jose St. 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.1 0.1%
Air Force 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
San Diego St. 92.0% 3.2% 90.4% 59.5% 26.5% 11.7% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7%
Utah St. 64.6% 8.8% 60.2% 32.6% 12.3% 4.7% 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
New Mexico 54.2% 10.7% 48.4% 22.2% 6.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Boise St. 36.0% 5.9% 32.9% 13.7% 3.7% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
Nevada 36.1% 7.9% 31.6% 12.5% 3.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 20.9% 4.3% 18.8% 7.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 30.1% 7.7% 25.8% 10.0% 2.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.9% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.4 1.8 15.9 38.0 32.3 10.6 1.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.1 3.2 22.4 41.1 26.4 6.3 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 90.1% 1.6 9.9 38.7 36.8 12.8 1.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 47.7% 0.6 52.3 39.5 7.7 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 20.6% 0.2 79.4 19.4 1.2 0.0
Final Four 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.8 0.1
Final Game 2.9% 0.0 97.1 2.9 0.0
Champion 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1