Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
41 Colorado St. 58.0%   11   6 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +10.2      +9.2 10 +1.1 133 70.2 159 +13.8 32 0.0 1
47 Utah St. 58.2%   11   5 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 5 +9.7      +5.5 42 +4.2 66 69.7 171 +12.7 39 0.0 1
48 San Diego St. 40.7%   4 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +9.2      +1.6 122 +7.6 21 63.9 304 +10.2 61 0.0 1
67 Boise St. 25.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 7 +7.3      +1.0 134 +6.3 36 65.9 263 +3.7 127 0.0 1
88 Nevada 11.5%   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +6.0      +5.0 54 +0.9 137 73.4 84 +2.2 146 0.0 1
92 Wyoming 16.8%   4 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 10 - 8 +5.7      +3.1 94 +2.6 95 70.4 150 +15.1 21 0.0 1
121 Fresno St. 6.0%   4 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.9      +0.9 144 +2.0 104 62.6 327 +13.3 35 0.0 1
149 UNLV 2.4%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 10 +1.4      -0.2 174 +1.6 115 64.8 286 +4.7 113 0.0 1
230 New Mexico 0.1%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 19 5 - 13 -3.4      -0.3 184 -3.0 274 78.5 25 -0.7 187 0.0 1
256 Air Force 0.0%   6 - 1 0 - 0 12 - 17 4 - 14 -5.3      -4.2 289 -1.1 213 59.1 352 +4.5 118 0.0 1
288 San Jose St. 0.0%   2 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 4 - 14 -7.1      -1.2 209 -5.9 331 68.7 201 -0.2 179 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Colorado St. 2.8 33.1 21.6 16.1 11.3 7.3 4.6 3.6 2.0 0.4 0.1
Utah St. 2.9 30.0 22.1 16.5 12.2 8.5 6.0 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
San Diego St. 3.2 25.4 19.6 17.0 13.7 9.4 6.7 5.2 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1
Boise St. 4.3 12.6 15.6 14.2 12.3 14.3 11.9 9.0 6.2 2.9 0.8 0.2
Nevada 4.9 6.8 10.8 12.3 14.5 14.6 14.9 12.6 8.6 3.5 1.2 0.4
Wyoming 4.6 10.6 11.6 12.9 14.2 15.1 13.2 10.3 6.9 3.3 1.6 0.4
Fresno St. 5.8 4.2 6.2 8.5 10.9 14.6 14.2 14.6 13.5 8.1 3.8 1.5
UNLV 6.5 1.9 3.3 6.2 8.6 11.7 15.2 17.6 16.2 11.8 5.4 2.1
New Mexico 8.7 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.8 5.4 10.6 16.4 26.5 23.0 12.8
Air Force 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 6.9 11.4 23.5 29.6 23.4
San Jose St. 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 1.9 3.8 7.7 18.1 27.0 39.9




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colorado St. 13 - 5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.4 4.8 7.4 11.3 14.7 14.6 14.9 12.8 9.1 3.2 1.4
Utah St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 2.9 5.1 9.1 12.0 14.2 16.2 14.9 12.4 6.8 3.3 0.8
San Diego St. 12 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.3 4.7 6.7 10.0 12.9 14.9 15.9 13.3 9.4 5.7 2.5 0.5
Boise St. 11 - 7 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.0 8.7 11.8 13.6 12.0 13.5 11.6 8.8 5.1 2.4 0.9 0.2
Nevada 10 - 8 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.9 2.9 4.3 8.3 11.3 13.4 14.8 14.0 11.3 9.1 5.1 2.4 1.2 0.4 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 8 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.1 3.8 7.0 10.2 12.3 14.1 12.8 12.5 9.3 6.9 3.9 2.5 0.6 0.1
Fresno St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.8 5.8 8.5 10.7 13.4 14.0 13.6 10.0 8.0 5.5 2.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.1
UNLV 8 - 10 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.8 5.0 8.4 10.3 13.9 14.7 14.6 11.4 8.6 5.2 3.0 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.1
New Mexico 5 - 13 1.0 2.6 7.4 13.4 15.9 16.4 13.8 11.8 8.9 4.8 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Air Force 4 - 14 1.8 7.2 11.8 17.5 18.4 15.9 11.3 8.0 4.5 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.2 0.1
San Jose St. 4 - 14 5.2 12.1 17.5 19.5 16.4 12.1 8.1 4.2 2.6 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colorado St. 33.1% 22.6 8.1 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 30.0% 20.1 7.9 1.6 0.4 0.0
San Diego St. 25.4% 16.5 6.8 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 12.6% 7.4 3.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nevada 6.8% 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 10.6% 6.4 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.0
Fresno St. 4.2% 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1
UNLV 1.9% 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 0.1% 0.1 0.1
Air Force 0.0% 0.0
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colorado St. 58.0% 24.4% 33.6% 11   0.5 1.1 1.5 2.7 3.2 3.9 4.4 6.0 8.2 9.0 11.0 6.3 0.3 0.0 42.0 44.4%
Utah St. 58.2% 22.2% 36.0% 11   0.4 0.6 1.3 2.6 2.5 3.6 4.6 7.0 8.5 10.5 12.3 3.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 41.8 46.2%
San Diego St. 40.7% 19.9% 20.8% 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.2 2.5 3.5 5.5 6.1 10.6 5.7 1.2 0.2 0.1 59.3 26.0%
Boise St. 25.3% 12.9% 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.9 2.0 2.9 4.7 7.1 4.7 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.1 74.7 14.3%
Nevada 11.5% 7.4% 4.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.6 3.3 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 88.5 4.4%
Wyoming 16.8% 8.1% 8.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.7 2.1 4.9 4.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 83.2 9.5%
Fresno St. 6.0% 3.1% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.3 1.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 94.0 2.9%
UNLV 2.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 97.6 0.6%
New Mexico 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Colorado St. 58.0% 8.4% 53.8% 27.3% 8.7% 3.4% 1.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Utah St. 58.2% 7.8% 54.0% 25.9% 8.0% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
San Diego St. 40.7% 7.0% 37.3% 16.8% 5.4% 2.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
Boise St. 25.3% 4.2% 23.0% 9.4% 2.4% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1%
Nevada 11.5% 1.8% 10.7% 3.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 16.8% 4.0% 14.7% 5.1% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 6.0% 1.4% 5.3% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 2.4% 0.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 19.6 47.4 27.6 5.1 0.3
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 0.0 26.4 49.4 21.0 3.1 0.1
2nd Round 68.2% 0.9 31.8 48.1 18.3 1.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 25.4% 0.3 74.6 23.5 1.7 0.1
Elite Eight 9.9% 0.1 90.1 9.7 0.2 0.1
Final Four 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Final Game 1.4% 0.0 98.7 1.4
Champion 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3