Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
46 Utah St. 51.1%   11   8 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 6 +11.3      +6.6 54 +4.7 56 69.7 180 +14.5 33 0.0 1
47 Boise St. 53.5%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 6 +11.1      +3.9 82 +7.2 22 66.5 267 +14.4 34 0.0 1
51 San Diego St. 33.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +10.4      +5.7 61 +4.6 57 70.9 148 +7.2 83 0.0 1
71 Colorado St. 15.2%   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.9      +8.6 24 -0.7 191 60.7 359 +8.2 74 0.0 1
72 New Mexico 19.9%   8 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.9      +3.5 91 +4.4 62 76.4 35 +12.2 49 0.0 1
91 Wyoming 5.9%   8 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +5.8      +3.8 83 +2.0 105 70.2 166 +6.3 91 0.0 1
92 Grand Canyon 5.6%   6 - 4 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +5.8      +1.0 137 +4.7 54 69.8 178 +1.9 144 0.0 1
98 Nevada 4.9%   8 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +5.0      +3.3 94 +1.7 114 65.0 300 +7.7 78 0.0 1
141 UNLV 1.0%   4 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 12 +1.4      +1.0 138 +0.4 150 77.0 29 -2.7 211 0.0 1
184 Fresno St. 0.2%   5 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 14 -1.6      -1.3 200 -0.3 172 73.1 80 -3.2 219 0.0 1
190 San Jose St. 0.2%   4 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -1.8      +0.6 146 -2.4 256 63.9 319 -2.7 212 0.0 1
324 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 5 - 26 2 - 18 -9.7      -7.0 340 -2.7 261 62.5 340 -10.3 316 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 13 90 Illinois St. 78 46 Utah St. 83   
Sat, Dec 13 138 Duquesne 75 98 Nevada 78   
Sat, Dec 13 190 San Jose St. 82 93 Stanford 86   
Sat, Dec 13 231 Tennessee St. 63 141 UNLV 60   
Sat, Dec 13 245 Coastal Carolina 61 92 Grand Canyon 82   
Sun, Dec 14 47 Boise St. 68 39 St. Mary's 67   
Sun, Dec 14 186 Florida Gulf Coast 59 72 New Mexico 75   
Mon, Dec 15 165 South Dakota St. 72 91 Wyoming 87   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 17 324 Air Force 58 51 San Diego St. 81 97%   
Sat, Dec 20 71 Colorado St. 71 46 Utah St. 77 73%   
Sat, Dec 20 92 Grand Canyon 72 91 Wyoming 75 62%   
Sat, Dec 20 3 Arizona 85 51 San Diego St. 72 87%   
Sat, Dec 20 47 Boise St. 71 98 Nevada 67 62%   
Sat, Dec 20 184 Fresno St. 76 141 UNLV 82 72%   
Sat, Dec 20 72 New Mexico 81 190 San Jose St. 69 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 3.0 31.6 20.5 14.8 11.0 7.9 5.8 4.0 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 3.1 28.9 20.8 15.0 11.2 8.3 6.3 4.4 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
San Diego St. 3.4 25.5 18.9 15.4 12.0 9.3 7.3 5.3 3.4 2.0 0.8 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 4.4 12.6 14.6 13.9 13.5 13.1 11.2 8.7 6.3 3.8 1.8 0.6 0.0
New Mexico 4.5 11.6 14.1 14.4 13.7 12.5 11.1 9.1 6.9 4.1 2.0 0.5 0.0
Wyoming 5.6 5.0 7.8 10.3 11.4 13.3 13.1 13.3 11.5 8.3 4.2 1.8 0.2
Grand Canyon 5.6 5.6 8.3 10.2 12.0 13.0 12.8 13.1 10.9 7.8 4.3 1.7 0.2
Nevada 6.0 3.8 6.1 8.6 10.7 12.8 14.0 13.8 12.5 9.8 5.5 2.2 0.2
UNLV 8.1 0.5 1.5 2.4 4.2 6.2 8.4 11.6 15.3 20.1 17.0 10.9 1.8
Fresno St. 9.4 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.4 3.8 6.5 10.0 17.5 25.0 26.7 6.0
San Jose St. 9.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.1 3.8 6.1 10.0 16.4 25.8 27.6 6.1
Air Force 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 5.1 18.4 74.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 7.4 10.7 12.8 15.2 14.0 12.4 9.0 5.3 2.1 0.4
Boise St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 3.2 5.5 8.0 11.0 13.2 14.9 14.0 11.8 8.5 4.5 1.9 0.4
San Diego St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.3 9.2 11.7 13.7 14.4 13.0 10.6 7.2 4.0 1.5 0.3
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.8 4.5 7.1 10.5 13.0 14.1 13.5 12.4 9.5 5.9 3.2 1.3 0.3 0.0
New Mexico 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 2.8 5.1 7.7 10.5 12.9 14.0 14.2 11.9 8.8 5.9 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
Wyoming 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 3.2 5.8 8.7 11.8 14.2 14.1 13.2 10.7 7.6 4.5 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Grand Canyon 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.1 5.7 8.5 11.1 13.8 14.2 13.2 10.9 8.1 4.9 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.1 6.8 10.4 12.6 14.2 14.4 12.3 9.8 6.2 3.4 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
UNLV 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.6 5.2 8.8 11.7 14.1 14.6 13.0 11.0 7.9 5.1 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.3 4.0 7.9 11.8 15.3 16.1 14.1 11.4 7.9 5.0 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.2 1.3 4.1 8.2 12.4 15.9 15.7 14.3 11.0 7.7 4.6 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Air Force 2 - 18 13.9 23.9 24.4 18.0 10.6 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 31.6% 21.8 7.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 28.9% 19.3 7.3 1.8 0.5 0.0 0.0
San Diego St. 25.5% 16.7 6.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 12.6% 7.1 4.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 11.6% 6.7 3.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 5.0% 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 5.6% 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Nevada 3.8% 1.9 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
UNLV 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 51.1% 23.0% 28.1% 11   0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.6 2.7 3.9 5.5 8.5 12.4 14.3 0.6 0.0 48.9 36.5%
Boise St. 53.5% 22.1% 31.3% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.7 6.8 9.7 13.6 11.9 0.4 0.0 46.5 40.3%
San Diego St. 33.7% 19.4% 14.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.8 2.8 4.6 8.6 13.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 66.3 17.8%
Colorado St. 15.2% 9.9% 5.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 3.0 8.3 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.8 5.9%
New Mexico 19.9% 10.0% 9.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.6 4.9 9.2 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 80.1 11.0%
Wyoming 5.9% 4.9% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.4 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.1 1.1%
Grand Canyon 5.6% 5.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 3.2 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 94.4 0.5%
Nevada 4.9% 4.0% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.1 0.9%
UNLV 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 99.0 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 51.1% 10.1% 46.2% 21.9% 5.8% 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0%
Boise St. 53.5% 9.4% 48.6% 23.1% 5.8% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
San Diego St. 33.7% 6.3% 30.8% 13.4% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 15.2% 3.2% 13.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 19.9% 5.3% 17.2% 5.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 5.9% 0.8% 5.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 5.6% 0.3% 5.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 4.9% 0.6% 4.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.9 29.8 50.8 17.7 1.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 0.0 39.7 48.2 11.4 0.7 0.0
2nd Round 59.2% 0.7 40.8 46.4 12.0 0.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.9% 0.2 83.2 16.2 0.6
Elite Eight 5.2% 0.1 94.8 5.2 0.0
Final Four 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1