Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
37 San Diego St. 61.5%   11   4 - 2 1 - 0 21 - 7 15 - 5 +12.1      +3.8 78 +8.3 7 65.7 274 +16.1 23 +13.0 1
48 Nevada 35.8%   6 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 9 14 - 6 +10.3      +5.3 57 +5.1 50 63.6 317 +10.5 58 0.0 4
52 Utah St. 40.8%   7 - 0 1 - 0 23 - 7 14 - 6 +9.7      +5.8 47 +4.0 77 70.9 132 +18.1 15 +11.3 2
53 Boise St. 29.1%   5 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 13 - 7 +9.7      +6.0 44 +3.7 81 67.2 231 +7.8 82 0.0 4
65 New Mexico 27.6%   7 - 2 1 - 0 21 - 9 13 - 7 +9.1      +5.2 59 +3.9 78 83.1 2 +12.5 44 +10.8 3
99 Colorado St. 5.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 +5.4      +1.0 146 +4.4 64 67.2 232 +2.4 130 0.0 4
104 UNLV 3.8%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 10 +4.4      +2.9 98 +1.5 122 64.4 306 +2.1 137 0.0 4
177 Wyoming 0.4%   4 - 3 0 - 1 13 - 17 7 - 13 -0.9      -0.8 197 -0.1 172 67.8 217 +0.7 164 -2.5 9
194 San Jose St. 0.2%   3 - 6 0 - 1 10 - 20 6 - 14 -1.4      +0.8 148 -2.3 250 63.1 323 -5.5 256 -3.1 10
255 Fresno St. 0.0%   3 - 5 0 - 1 8 - 23 4 - 16 -5.2      -5.8 331 +0.6 151 83.0 3 -5.4 255 -6.1 11
286 Air Force 0.0%   2 - 7 0 - 0 6 - 25 4 - 16 -6.5      -2.6 240 -3.9 301 58.3 362 -14.3 349 0.0 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
San Diego St. 2.4 39.6 22.2 14.7 10.4 6.7 4.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nevada 3.1 23.2 21.3 17.3 14.7 11.2 7.2 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 3.3 20.3 19.3 17.8 15.2 12.7 8.5 4.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 3.4 19.1 18.4 17.6 15.6 12.9 9.1 5.1 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 3.6 15.9 17.4 17.7 16.7 14.7 9.9 5.6 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Colorado St. 5.4 3.7 6.1 9.3 12.5 16.4 20.6 17.5 8.8 3.6 1.2 0.3
UNLV 5.8 2.6 4.7 6.8 10.6 14.4 19.3 21.8 11.8 5.4 2.0 0.6
Wyoming 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.6 7.6 15.7 26.8 23.4 13.8 6.4
San Jose St. 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 2.6 6.5 14.2 25.5 25.7 15.8 7.8
Fresno St. 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.4 4.9 12.2 21.9 30.9 28.0
Air Force 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.1 9.1 17.9 29.8 38.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
San Diego St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.7 4.3 7.4 10.3 13.5 15.9 15.3 13.5 9.2 4.8 1.3
Nevada 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 5.0 7.7 11.0 13.6 15.1 14.8 12.5 8.4 4.6 1.7 0.4
Utah St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.6 5.7 9.0 11.6 14.3 14.8 14.0 11.1 7.1 3.9 1.3 0.3
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.4 9.2 12.2 14.2 14.9 13.0 10.4 7.0 3.7 1.2 0.2
New Mexico 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.0 7.1 10.5 13.5 14.7 14.8 12.9 9.2 5.7 2.6 0.8 0.2
Colorado St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.7 6.2 9.1 11.6 13.6 14.2 13.0 10.2 7.1 4.3 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNLV 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.2 5.3 8.3 11.1 13.1 14.0 12.8 11.1 8.2 5.4 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.3 6.9 10.8 14.3 15.5 14.6 12.1 8.9 5.9 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.0 12.2 14.9 16.3 14.6 11.2 7.8 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 4 - 16 2.1 7.6 13.8 18.3 18.5 14.9 10.7 7.1 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 4 - 16 3.7 11.5 17.6 19.9 17.2 13.0 8.1 4.8 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
San Diego St. 39.6% 28.0 9.2 2.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Nevada 23.2% 14.6 6.6 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah St. 20.3% 12.5 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Boise St. 19.1% 11.6 5.7 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 15.9% 9.5 4.7 1.4 0.3 0.0
Colorado St. 3.7% 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UNLV 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Fresno St.
Air Force 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
San Diego St. 61.5% 27.6% 33.9% 11   1.0 1.5 2.5 3.7 4.4 4.9 5.2 6.2 8.4 10.7 11.9 1.1 0.0 38.5 46.8%
Nevada 35.8% 18.4% 17.4% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.3 3.0 4.7 7.3 11.9 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 64.2 21.3%
Utah St. 40.8% 16.2% 24.6% 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.9 3.5 5.7 8.2 12.8 1.7 0.0 59.2 29.4%
Boise St. 29.1% 16.1% 13.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.3 3.5 6.1 10.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 70.9 15.5%
New Mexico 27.6% 13.4% 14.1% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 3.4 5.8 10.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 72.4 16.3%
Colorado St. 5.4% 4.3% 1.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 94.6 1.1%
UNLV 3.8% 3.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.2 0.6%
Wyoming 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
San Diego St. 61.5% 7.9% 57.7% 33.7% 13.4% 5.5% 2.1% 0.8% 0.3%
Nevada 35.8% 6.3% 32.9% 15.8% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%
Utah St. 40.8% 8.9% 36.2% 17.1% 5.5% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Boise St. 29.1% 5.0% 26.6% 12.5% 4.1% 1.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
New Mexico 27.6% 6.0% 24.5% 10.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 5.4% 0.6% 5.1% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 3.8% 0.3% 3.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 24.6 49.5 22.8 3.0 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.9 0.0 32.4 49.6 16.4 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 69.9% 0.9 30.1 49.8 18.3 1.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 29.4% 0.3 70.7 27.0 2.3 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 11.9% 0.1 88.1 11.6 0.3
Final Four 4.3% 0.0 95.7 4.3 0.0
Final Game 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Champion 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5