Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
21 Colorado St. 90.7%   6   8 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 5 13 - 5 +13.2      +9.8 11 +3.4 79 69.5 178 +21.9 4 0.0 1
28 San Diego St. 76.4%   8   6 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 8 13 - 5 +12.4      +4.8 63 +7.6 14 67.8 223 +17.5 15 0.0 1
42 New Mexico 52.2%   7 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +11.1      +6.8 28 +4.3 59 77.6 27 +11.7 42 0.0 1
43 Nevada 55.4%   11   6 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 12 - 6 +10.7      +5.4 52 +5.2 40 70.1 158 +16.5 19 0.0 1
56 Utah St. 33.2%   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 9 11 - 7 +8.9      +4.9 62 +4.0 63 68.4 206 +12.4 39 0.0 1
76 Boise St. 18.8%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 10 - 8 +7.2      +2.0 117 +5.2 41 66.1 269 +8.6 64 0.0 1
126 UNLV 2.9%   3 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 +2.5      +3.2 88 -0.7 192 67.1 238 +0.6 161 0.0 1
146 San Jose St. 1.3%   4 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 11 +1.1      -0.3 182 +1.5 136 61.9 341 -1.4 198 0.0 1
163 Wyoming 1.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 +0.1      -1.0 201 +1.1 142 68.1 210 +2.0 142 0.0 1
187 Fresno St. 0.8%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 5 - 13 -1.1      -2.2 241 +1.0 143 66.7 252 -4.5 256 0.0 1
203 Air Force 0.5%   6 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 17 5 - 13 -1.8      -3.9 283 +2.1 117 59.0 356 -0.9 186 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Colorado St. 2.5 36.5 23.0 15.9 10.5 7.3 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1
San Diego St. 2.9 29.3 21.3 16.8 12.5 9.3 5.5 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
New Mexico 3.4 20.1 19.3 18.2 14.7 11.3 8.1 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1
Nevada 3.5 18.5 18.7 17.5 15.8 12.3 8.1 5.1 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1
Utah St. 4.1 12.5 14.9 16.2 16.6 14.4 11.7 7.1 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.4
Boise St. 5.2 6.1 8.2 10.7 13.9 15.7 16.0 12.6 8.5 4.8 2.5 1.0
UNLV 7.3 1.0 2.1 3.4 5.4 8.9 13.8 17.4 16.3 14.1 10.5 7.0
San Jose St. 7.7 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.3 7.6 12.2 15.5 17.4 16.7 13.7 8.9
Wyoming 8.3 0.3 0.8 1.4 3.1 5.2 8.8 12.7 16.6 18.0 17.9 15.0
Fresno St. 8.7 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.8 6.5 10.8 14.6 18.7 20.8 21.3
Air Force 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.6 5.5 9.2 13.8 18.8 22.7 25.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Colorado St. 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.1 4.1 6.3 10.5 14.2 16.0 16.2 13.5 9.3 4.6 1.5
San Diego St. 13 - 5 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.9 8.6 11.9 14.9 15.6 13.6 11.4 7.4 3.4 0.8
New Mexico 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 10.7 14.9 14.9 15.0 11.9 8.2 4.4 1.5 0.4
Nevada 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.7 3.3 5.2 8.5 12.2 13.4 15.7 14.0 11.3 7.7 4.0 1.7 0.3
Utah St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.6 2.5 5.0 8.2 10.9 13.0 15.0 14.5 11.7 8.5 5.0 2.5 0.8 0.2
Boise St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.9 6.6 9.8 12.4 13.8 14.0 12.8 9.7 6.9 4.0 1.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
UNLV 7 - 11 0.1 0.8 2.3 5.1 8.3 12.0 13.6 15.5 13.9 10.8 7.3 4.8 3.1 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
San Jose St. 7 - 11 0.3 1.2 3.1 6.8 10.6 13.5 15.1 14.4 13.1 9.2 6.1 3.8 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 6 - 12 0.6 2.1 6.0 10.1 13.6 15.0 15.0 12.8 9.5 6.9 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Fresno St. 5 - 13 0.9 4.0 8.2 13.2 15.1 16.1 13.6 11.0 7.9 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 5 - 13 1.4 4.9 10.0 14.3 17.2 16.1 13.3 9.9 6.1 3.5 1.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Colorado St. 36.5% 25.1 8.9 2.0 0.4 0.0
San Diego St. 29.3% 19.5 7.7 1.6 0.4 0.0
New Mexico 20.1% 12.4 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.0
Nevada 18.5% 11.2 5.3 1.6 0.3 0.0
Utah St. 12.5% 6.9 4.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 6.1% 3.2 2.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
UNLV 1.0% 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Wyoming 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0
Fresno St. 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Colorado St. 90.7% 25.8% 65.0% 6   4.5 6.8 10.2 10.7 11.4 10.6 8.8 7.2 7.6 8.1 4.4 0.4 0.0 9.3 87.5%
San Diego St. 76.4% 19.9% 56.5% 8   2.1 3.7 5.9 8.1 8.0 8.3 7.4 7.4 8.1 9.3 7.0 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 23.6 70.6%
New Mexico 52.2% 16.3% 35.9% 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 6.3 9.4 9.5 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 47.9 42.9%
Nevada 55.4% 15.0% 40.4% 11   0.7 1.4 2.5 3.6 4.2 4.8 5.2 5.8 7.3 9.4 8.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.6 47.6%
Utah St. 33.2% 10.2% 23.0% 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.0 4.1 7.0 8.4 1.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 66.8 25.6%
Boise St. 18.8% 7.0% 11.9% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.5 3.8 5.2 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 81.2 12.8%
UNLV 2.9% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 97.1 0.8%
San Jose St. 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 98.7 0.1%
Wyoming 1.3% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 98.7 0.1%
Fresno St. 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 99.2 0.0%
Air Force 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Colorado St. 90.7% 4.9% 88.3% 59.7% 28.7% 12.4% 5.1% 2.2% 0.9%
San Diego St. 76.4% 7.4% 72.8% 46.7% 21.0% 9.0% 3.8% 1.5% 0.6%
New Mexico 52.2% 8.5% 48.1% 27.4% 11.4% 4.6% 1.7% 0.6% 0.3%
Nevada 55.4% 8.6% 51.2% 28.7% 11.8% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 0.3%
Utah St. 33.2% 6.9% 29.6% 14.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Boise St. 18.8% 3.9% 16.9% 7.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
UNLV 2.9% 0.8% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 1.3% 0.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.8% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.3 1.2 15.2 41.7 33.1 8.2 0.6
1st Round 100.0% 3.1 2.1 21.0 44.5 27.2 4.9 0.3
2nd Round 94.2% 1.9 5.8 29.9 40.9 20.0 3.2 0.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 61.4% 0.8 38.6 44.8 14.6 2.0 0.0
Elite Eight 30.2% 0.3 69.8 27.3 2.9 0.1
Final Four 12.9% 0.1 87.1 12.5 0.4
Final Game 5.3% 0.1 94.7 5.2 0.0
Champion 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1