Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
43 Utah St. 56.4%   11   6 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 6 15 - 5 +11.7      +7.3 40 +4.4 60 71.4 140 +16.9 22 0.0 1
55 San Diego St. 27.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 11 14 - 6 +9.6      +5.7 59 +3.9 69 68.5 215 +3.6 125 0.0 1
59 Boise St. 28.6%   4 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 10 13 - 7 +9.4      +2.8 103 +6.6 28 66.2 265 +8.9 73 0.0 1
75 Colorado St. 14.3%   6 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 10 12 - 8 +7.5      +8.1 32 -0.6 187 60.6 358 +6.0 91 0.0 1
95 Grand Canyon 6.0%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +5.2      0.0 159 +5.2 46 72.2 115 +1.5 152 0.0 1
104 New Mexico 5.4%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 10 +4.5      +1.2 131 +3.2 79 79.7 12 +5.9 94 0.0 1
105 Nevada 4.8%   6 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +4.4      +2.6 108 +1.8 115 67.2 250 +6.1 90 0.0 1
106 Wyoming 4.6%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +4.2      +1.3 129 +2.9 90 72.0 120 +3.3 130 0.0 1
130 UNLV 1.9%   3 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 +2.0      +2.8 102 -0.8 191 79.0 16 -2.9 210 0.0 1
180 Fresno St. 0.4%   5 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 18 7 - 13 -1.4      -1.6 210 +0.2 163 74.9 59 -2.0 200 0.0 1
201 San Jose St. 0.3%   2 - 5 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -2.5      -0.9 187 -1.6 213 63.4 326 -3.7 226 0.0 1
327 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 25 3 - 17 -9.6      -6.7 343 -2.8 264 62.5 345 -9.2 297 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Nov 29 160 Montana St. 81 43 Utah St. 84   
Sat, Nov 29 327 Air Force 63 265 South Dakota 80   
Sun, Nov 30 29 Texas Tech 76 106 Wyoming 72   
Sun, Nov 30 201 San Jose St. 63 128 UC Irvine 72   
Sun, Nov 30 257 Cal St. Bakersfield 76 180 Fresno St. 71   
Tue, Dec 2 105 Nevada 76 102 UC San Diego 70   
Tue, Dec 2 95 Grand Canyon 67 348 Stetson 45   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Dec 3 55 San Diego St. 76 90 Utah Valley 70 74%   
Wed, Dec 3 327 Air Force 62 142 Pacific 69 77%   
Thu, Dec 4 86 South Florida 81 43 Utah St. 83 59%   
Fri, Dec 5 255 San Diego 70 201 San Jose St. 76 70%   
Sat, Dec 6 59 Boise St. 71 47 Butler 76 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 63 Colorado 74 75 Colorado St. 76 56%   
Sat, Dec 6 95 Grand Canyon 78 50 Oklahoma St. 83 71%   
Sat, Dec 6 104 New Mexico 78 52 Santa Clara 81 60%   
Sat, Dec 6 25 Arkansas 88 180 Fresno St. 69 95%   
Sat, Dec 6 247 Dartmouth 71 106 Wyoming 83 87%   
Sun, Dec 7 83 Stanford 87 130 UNLV 79 76%   
Sun, Dec 7 105 Nevada 77 158 Washington St. 75 56%   
Sun, Dec 7 189 Charlotte 67 43 Utah St. 78 84%   
Sun, Dec 7 327 Air Force 62 192 Navy 72 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.5 41.6 21.1 13.4 8.7 6.0 4.0 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1
San Diego St. 3.3 25.5 20.4 15.5 11.9 9.0 6.6 4.9 3.3 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 3.6 22.0 19.0 15.9 12.3 9.4 7.5 5.5 4.0 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.0
Colorado St. 4.1 14.0 16.5 15.6 14.7 12.0 9.4 7.1 4.9 3.3 1.8 0.7 0.1
Grand Canyon 5.4 6.2 9.4 11.1 12.6 13.1 12.7 11.1 9.7 7.4 4.5 2.0 0.3
New Mexico 6.0 4.7 7.2 9.1 10.9 12.2 12.4 12.4 11.6 9.6 6.5 3.0 0.4
Nevada 5.8 4.1 7.3 9.7 11.8 13.0 13.1 12.3 11.0 8.9 5.9 2.4 0.4
Wyoming 6.1 4.1 6.6 9.1 10.4 12.2 12.4 12.7 12.0 10.0 6.7 3.4 0.5
UNLV 7.4 1.4 2.8 4.6 6.6 8.4 10.5 12.7 14.5 15.5 13.1 8.3 1.5
Fresno St. 8.9 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.7 5.8 8.5 11.8 16.2 22.3 21.4 5.5
San Jose St. 9.4 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.7 2.8 4.4 6.3 9.7 14.2 22.0 28.7 8.9
Air Force 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 6.4 19.4 70.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.4 5.4 8.2 10.6 13.4 14.8 14.2 12.2 8.4 4.5 1.2
San Diego St. 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.1 6.2 8.9 11.2 13.0 13.5 13.3 11.0 7.8 4.3 1.8 0.4
Boise St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.1 4.7 7.3 9.7 11.7 13.1 13.4 11.9 9.8 6.6 3.8 1.5 0.3
Colorado St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.1 6.5 9.3 11.8 13.7 13.9 12.8 10.2 7.1 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1
Grand Canyon 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.4 5.5 8.1 11.0 13.1 13.8 12.7 10.8 8.3 5.6 3.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
New Mexico 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.6 4.8 7.4 10.3 11.9 13.4 13.2 11.2 9.3 6.4 4.1 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Nevada 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 4.0 6.8 10.0 12.1 13.5 13.6 12.4 9.9 6.7 4.2 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.9 5.3 7.4 10.3 12.9 13.3 12.9 11.1 9.0 6.1 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.6 6.4 9.5 12.3 13.7 13.6 12.2 9.7 7.2 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 7 - 13 0.1 0.9 2.9 6.1 9.6 12.8 14.6 14.5 12.7 9.9 6.9 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
San Jose St. 6 - 14 0.3 1.7 4.8 9.0 12.3 14.6 14.8 13.2 10.5 7.7 5.0 3.0 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force 3 - 17 11.4 21.3 23.0 18.4 12.3 7.0 3.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 41.6% 30.4 8.9 2.0 0.3 0.0
San Diego St. 25.5% 16.9 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
Boise St. 22.0% 14.4 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
Colorado St. 14.0% 8.3 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0
Grand Canyon 6.2% 3.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
New Mexico 4.7% 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Nevada 4.1% 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
Wyoming 4.1% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNLV 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Fresno St. 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 56.4% 30.0% 26.4% 11   0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 2.4 3.7 4.7 5.6 8.1 12.5 14.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 43.6 37.7%
San Diego St. 27.2% 19.5% 7.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.8 5.6 11.9 2.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.8 9.5%
Boise St. 28.6% 17.8% 10.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.3 2.1 3.3 6.2 11.6 2.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 71.4 13.2%
Colorado St. 14.3% 11.4% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 7.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7 3.3%
Grand Canyon 6.0% 5.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.0 0.4%
New Mexico 5.4% 4.5% 0.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.6 0.9%
Nevada 4.8% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.2 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.2 0.4%
Wyoming 4.6% 4.2% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.4 0.4%
UNLV 1.9% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.1 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 56.4% 9.0% 51.9% 26.3% 8.0% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
San Diego St. 27.2% 3.6% 25.4% 10.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 28.6% 4.8% 26.2% 10.7% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Colorado St. 14.3% 1.7% 13.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 6.0% 0.3% 5.8% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico 5.4% 0.6% 5.1% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 4.8% 0.3% 4.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 4.6% 0.3% 4.5% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 55.4 39.5 4.9 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 63.5 33.5 2.9 0.1
2nd Round 49.9% 0.6 50.1 43.5 6.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 14.8% 0.2 85.2 14.4 0.5 0.0
Elite Eight 5.0% 0.1 95.0 4.9 0.1
Final Four 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5 0.0
Final Game 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1