Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
38 Utah St. 73.3%   10   16 - 3 8 - 2 +13.4      +8.2 32 +5.2 50 68.5 187 +13.3 40 +11.9 4
41 San Diego St. 53.2%   14 - 5 9 - 1 +12.0      +4.1 80 +7.8 21 69.8 158 +12.2 48 +17.4 1
42 New Mexico 57.0%   11   16 - 4 8 - 2 +11.9      +4.2 77 +7.6 23 76.0 30 +13.1 41 +13.0 2
63 Boise St. 13.2%   12 - 8 5 - 6 +8.9      +4.4 75 +4.5 65 66.0 255 +8.7 71 +5.0 7
66 Grand Canyon 13.2%   14 - 7 7 - 3 +8.6      +1.1 135 +7.5 24 69.9 151 +8.9 68 +12.4 3
72 Nevada 10.3%   16 - 6 8 - 3 +7.9      +5.2 70 +2.7 98 63.9 309 +9.8 62 +11.5 5
100 Colorado St. 1.6%   11 - 9 3 - 7 +5.0      +5.7 64 -0.7 187 59.3 364 +4.6 96 +1.4 9
113 Wyoming 0.7%   11 - 9 3 - 7 +3.1      +2.4 107 +0.7 141 66.9 233 +2.0 130 -1.5 10
127 UNLV 0.5%   9 - 11 5 - 5 +1.9      +1.8 120 +0.1 160 73.7 58 +1.9 133 +5.5 6
149 Fresno St. 0.2%   8 - 11 3 - 6 +0.5      -2.7 244 +3.2 85 71.2 117 -1.1 181 +1.6 8
246 San Jose St. 0.0%   5 - 15 1 - 9 -4.8      -1.3 200 -3.5 285 62.8 330 -5.2 245 -11.9 12
347 Air Force 0.0%   3 - 17 0 - 9 -12.0      -9.0 357 -3.0 271 63.3 320 -11.9 335 -10.5 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 27 72 Nevada 66 66 Grand Canyon 60   
Tue, Jan 27 63 Boise St. 89 246 San Jose St. 58   
Tue, Jan 27 42 New Mexico 89 127 UNLV 61   
Wed, Jan 28 41 San Diego St. 73 100 Colorado St. 50   
Wed, Jan 28 38 Utah St. 94 113 Wyoming 62   
Fri, Jan 30 63 Boise St. 69 66 Grand Canyon 86   
Fri, Jan 30 72 Nevada 89 127 UNLV 76   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 31 41 San Diego St. 72 38 Utah St. 76 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 100 Colorado St. 71 113 Wyoming 72 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 42 New Mexico 80 246 San Jose St. 67 89%   
Sat, Jan 31 347 Air Force 62 149 Fresno St. 71 81%   
Tue, Feb 3 63 Boise St. 73 72 Nevada 69 65%   
Tue, Feb 3 149 Fresno St. 77 127 UNLV 75 56%   
Tue, Feb 3 41 San Diego St. 78 113 Wyoming 67 86%   
Tue, Feb 3 347 Air Force 54 66 Grand Canyon 77 98%   
Wed, Feb 4 42 New Mexico 78 38 Utah St. 77 56%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Utah St. 2.4 33.3 24.6 19.2 12.6 8.8 1.4 0.2 0.0
San Diego St. 1.8 53.7 24.3 12.2 6.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico 2.5 29.4 27.7 19.8 13.3 8.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
Boise St. 6.2 0.0 0.3 1.5 4.9 14.2 47.0 20.2 8.0 3.1 0.7 0.0
Grand Canyon 3.2 10.7 20.4 26.1 25.3 15.2 1.9 0.3 0.1
Nevada 3.7 6.4 13.7 20.6 26.3 26.9 5.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado St. 7.4 0.1 0.6 3.5 22.2 29.6 22.0 13.9 7.9 0.3
Wyoming 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.6 5.6 13.3 20.4 28.7 29.9 1.4
UNLV 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.5 19.3 30.5 25.7 13.5 4.6 0.1
Fresno St. 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 6.4 13.6 20.9 28.7 28.1 1.3 0.0
San Jose St. 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 6.6 84.9 6.5
Air Force 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 17.6 82.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Utah St. 15 - 5 24 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.8 12.8 20.7 24.3 20.1 11.1 2.9
San Diego St. 16 - 4 21 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 5.8 14.3 23.1 25.3 18.8 9.0 1.8
New Mexico 15 - 5 23 - 7 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.5 13.4 22.0 25.3 20.2 9.8 2.1
Boise St. 10 - 10 17 - 12 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.7 16.6 25.3 25.9 16.5 5.9 1.0
Grand Canyon 14 - 6 21 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.5 11.2 22.8 28.9 22.5 8.9 1.5
Nevada 13 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.3 1.9 8.1 18.1 26.5 25.1 14.3 4.8 0.8
Colorado St. 9 - 11 17 - 13 0.2 1.2 4.4 11.5 20.3 25.7 21.2 11.3 3.7 0.5
Wyoming 7 - 13 15 - 15 0.1 1.7 7.6 17.9 25.2 23.8 15.1 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0
UNLV 9 - 11 13 - 17 0.3 3.1 11.6 22.2 26.0 20.9 10.8 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0
Fresno St. 8 - 12 13 - 17 0.1 1.2 6.3 16.9 26.2 23.9 15.9 6.9 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
San Jose St. 3 - 17 7 - 23 7.8 23.2 29.2 22.4 11.5 4.5 1.2 0.2 0.0
Air Force 1 - 19 4 - 27 33.6 39.6 19.4 5.8 1.2 0.3 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah St. 33.3% 18.6 10.4 3.5 0.7 0.1
San Diego St. 53.7% 34.3 14.5 4.0 0.8 0.1
New Mexico 29.4% 15.0 10.2 3.4 0.7 0.1
Boise St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Grand Canyon 10.7% 3.5 4.1 2.3 0.6 0.1
Nevada 6.4% 1.8 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.1
Colorado St.
Wyoming
UNLV 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Fresno St.
San Jose St.
Air Force


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah St. 73.3% 29.3% 43.9% 10   0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.8 5.6 10.5 16.8 20.7 15.0 0.1 26.7 62.2%
San Diego St. 53.2% 22.4% 30.8% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.9 5.0 9.4 16.3 19.2 0.3 46.8 39.6%
New Mexico 57.0% 22.0% 35.0% 11   0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 4.9 9.5 18.5 21.1 0.2 43.0 44.8%
Boise St. 13.2% 6.8% 6.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8 2.8 8.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 86.8 6.8%
Grand Canyon 13.2% 9.2% 4.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.1 9.6 0.7 86.8 4.4%
Nevada 10.3% 7.3% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 7.8 0.8 0.0 89.7 3.2%
Colorado St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.4 0.1%
Wyoming 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.0%
UNLV 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 16.0 49.5 30.2 4.2 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 26.2 52.7 19.5 1.6 0.0
2nd Round 62.3% 0.8 37.7 47.4 13.7 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 16.9% 0.2 83.1 16.1 0.8
Elite Eight 5.4% 0.1 94.6 5.3 0.1
Final Four 1.3% 0.0 98.7 1.3 0.0
Final Game 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah St. 73.3% 12.8% 67.4% 31.8% 7.9% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0%
San Diego St. 53.2% 13.9% 46.4% 18.6% 4.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
New Mexico 57.0% 16.1% 49.1% 19.5% 4.2% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Boise St. 13.2% 4.8% 10.6% 2.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Grand Canyon 13.2% 3.2% 11.4% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nevada 10.3% 2.5% 8.8% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado St. 1.6% 0.1% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Wyoming 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNLV 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fresno St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Jose St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Air Force 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%