San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#194
Expected Predictive Rating-5.5#256
Pace63.1#323
Improvement+6.8#1

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#148
First Shot-0.8#199
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#89
Layup/Dunks-0.3#195
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#306
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#168
Freethrows+1.7#87
Improvement+4.9#1

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#250
First Shot-2.6#262
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#159
Layups/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#207
Freethrows+0.6#145
Improvement+1.9#44
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 5.8% 7.6% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 9.4% 10.6% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 13.9% 12.3% 17.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 62 - 11
Quad 34 - 55 - 17
Quad 45 - 411 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 324   Western Illinois L 55-59 84%     0 - 1 -16.1 -14.8 -1.9
  Nov 08, 2024 277   Pacific L 67-80 68%     0 - 2 -19.3 -9.8 -9.1
  Nov 10, 2024 162   @ Hawaii L 69-80 35%     0 - 3 -8.5 +5.9 -15.6
  Nov 17, 2024 126   UC Santa Barbara L 59-64 48%     0 - 4 -5.9 -3.6 -3.4
  Nov 20, 2024 106   @ USC L 68-82 21%     0 - 5 -6.9 +5.2 -13.5
  Nov 25, 2024 158   UTEP W 71-65 44%     1 - 5 +6.2 +2.6 +3.8
  Nov 26, 2024 160   UNC Greensboro W 69-64 44%     2 - 5 +5.1 +2.0 +3.4
  Nov 27, 2024 304   Long Beach St. W 82-66 72%     3 - 5 +8.6 +17.4 -6.5
  Dec 04, 2024 65   @ New Mexico L 77-83 11%     3 - 6 0 - 1 +6.1 +8.9 -2.8
  Dec 14, 2024 228   Cal Poly W 79-74 69%    
  Dec 21, 2024 146   Kennesaw St. W 76-75 53%    
  Dec 28, 2024 53   Boise St. L 67-75 22%    
  Dec 31, 2024 99   Colorado St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 04, 2025 104   @ UNLV L 64-73 21%    
  Jan 07, 2025 52   Utah St. L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 11, 2025 286   @ Air Force W 66-64 57%    
  Jan 14, 2025 65   New Mexico L 73-81 24%    
  Jan 18, 2025 48   @ Nevada L 60-75 9%    
  Jan 25, 2025 177   Wyoming W 71-69 59%    
  Jan 28, 2025 37   @ San Diego St. L 58-75 7%    
  Feb 01, 2025 286   Air Force W 69-61 76%    
  Feb 04, 2025 255   @ Fresno St. W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 07, 2025 53   @ Boise St. L 64-78 10%    
  Feb 11, 2025 37   San Diego St. L 61-72 18%    
  Feb 14, 2025 48   Nevada L 63-72 21%    
  Feb 19, 2025 52   @ Utah St. L 65-79 11%    
  Feb 22, 2025 177   @ Wyoming L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 25, 2025 104   UNLV L 67-70 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 99   @ Colorado St. L 63-73 19%    
  Mar 08, 2025 255   Fresno St. W 77-70 72%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 2.2 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.9 4.8 4.0 1.4 0.2 14.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 7.3 8.4 4.9 1.4 0.2 25.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.1 8.6 7.4 3.1 0.6 0.0 25.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 4.8 5.8 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 15.8 10th
11th 0.3 1.3 2.8 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 7.8 11th
Total 0.3 1.4 4.0 8.0 12.2 14.9 16.3 14.6 11.2 7.8 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 30.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 6.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 23.1% 23.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 6.0% 6.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-8 1.1% 3.1% 3.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
11-9 2.5% 1.4% 1.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
10-10 5.0% 0.6% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
9-11 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7
8-12 11.2% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1
7-13 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 14.6
6-14 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
5-15 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.9
4-16 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 12.2
3-17 8.0% 8.0
2-18 4.0% 4.0
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%