San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.3#280
Expected Predictive Rating+0.7#164
Pace65.9#260
Improvement+0.0#171

Offense
Total Offense-1.9#231
First Shot-1.1#206
After Offensive Rebound-0.8#234
Layup/Dunks-4.8#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#26
Freethrows-3.3#338
Improvement-1.7#324

Defense
Total Defense-4.3#306
First Shot-3.9#292
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#214
Layups/Dunks-4.9#318
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#348
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#39
Freethrows+1.1#120
Improvement+1.7#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.3 n/a
.500 or above 2.6% 3.3% 0.5%
.500 or above in Conference 2.5% 2.9% 1.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 50.4% 47.8% 58.4%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Home) - 75.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 71 - 11
Quad 33 - 73 - 19
Quad 46 - 39 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2021 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 78-76 45%     1 - 0 -3.0 +4.7 -7.6
  Nov 15, 2021 95   @ Stanford L 62-76 9%     1 - 1 -5.5 -2.2 -4.4
  Nov 18, 2021 217   @ California Baptist L 66-67 25%     1 - 2 -0.4 -4.5 +4.0
  Nov 20, 2021 11   @ Texas L 45-79 2%     1 - 3 -15.2 -19.5 +4.8
  Nov 23, 2021 175   Northern Colorado W 75-74 40%     2 - 3 -2.7 +4.2 -6.8
  Nov 30, 2021 243   South Dakota W 61-52 54%     3 - 3 +1.7 -7.7 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2021 330   North Dakota W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 06, 2021 235   @ Pepperdine L 68-74 30%    
  Dec 11, 2021 187   Pacific L 66-68 43%    
  Dec 17, 2021 251   @ Portland L 69-73 34%    
  Dec 21, 2021 82   Santa Clara L 69-79 17%    
  Dec 29, 2021 92   Nevada L 69-78 21%    
  Jan 01, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 61-80 5%    
  Jan 05, 2022 147   UNLV L 64-69 34%    
  Jan 11, 2022 129   @ Fresno St. L 60-72 15%    
  Jan 15, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 67-81 11%    
  Jan 18, 2022 84   @ Wyoming L 62-78 9%    
  Jan 22, 2022 147   @ UNLV L 61-72 16%    
  Jan 25, 2022 256   Air Force W 64-62 58%    
  Jan 28, 2022 201   @ New Mexico L 74-81 26%    
  Feb 01, 2022 129   Fresno St. L 63-69 30%    
  Feb 05, 2022 79   @ Boise St. L 58-74 7%    
  Feb 09, 2022 48   San Diego St. L 57-70 13%    
  Feb 12, 2022 84   Wyoming L 65-75 19%    
  Feb 16, 2022 92   @ Nevada L 66-81 9%    
  Feb 19, 2022 201   New Mexico L 77-78 45%    
  Feb 25, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 54-73 5%    
  Mar 01, 2022 256   @ Air Force L 61-65 37%    
  Mar 04, 2022 46   Utah St. L 64-77 14%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.2 1.9 3.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.4 8th
9th 0.7 5.1 6.9 3.8 0.8 0.0 17.3 9th
10th 0.4 4.5 10.4 9.2 4.4 0.7 0.1 29.7 10th
11th 4.0 10.0 12.8 7.4 2.2 0.4 36.8 11th
Total 4.0 10.4 17.3 18.5 16.8 13.7 8.7 5.4 2.7 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-7 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.3
10-8 0.7% 0.7
9-9 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.3
8-10 2.7% 2.7
7-11 5.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 5.4
6-12 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 8.7
5-13 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.7
4-14 16.8% 16.8
3-15 18.5% 18.5
2-16 17.3% 17.3
1-17 10.4% 10.4
0-18 4.0% 4.0
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%