San Jose St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#185
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#141
Pace61.0#348
Improvement-0.2#193

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#118
First Shot+1.6#123
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#153
Layup/Dunks+2.5#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#183
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#152
Freethrows-1.5#270
Improvement+0.1#90

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#256
First Shot-4.1#295
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#83
Layups/Dunks+2.8#82
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#190
Freethrows-5.5#358
Improvement-0.2#290
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.9% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 12.3 14.7
.500 or above 23.3% 52.0% 22.4%
.500 or above in Conference 9.4% 18.4% 9.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 28.4% 16.8% 28.7%
First Four0.4% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round0.7% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas (Away) - 3.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 31 - 7
Quad 21 - 52 - 12
Quad 33 - 45 - 16
Quad 47 - 212 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2022 292   Georgia Southern W 63-48 81%     1 - 0 +5.0 -9.0 +15.1
  Nov 15, 2022 355   Alabama St. W 70-57 93%     2 - 0 -4.8 -2.6 -0.9
  Nov 17, 2022 131   Hofstra L 76-85 49%     2 - 1 -9.4 +2.3 -11.9
  Nov 19, 2022 254   @ Northern Colorado W 80-69 53%     3 - 1 +9.4 +10.9 -0.2
  Nov 25, 2022 82   North Texas L 54-69 24%     3 - 2 -8.4 +2.1 -15.0
  Nov 26, 2022 301   Oakland W 80-67 75%     4 - 2 +5.2 +3.0 +3.0
  Nov 27, 2022 186   Ball St. W 67-65 50%     5 - 2 +1.2 -0.5 +1.9
  Dec 03, 2022 15   @ Arkansas L 59-79 3%    
  Dec 06, 2022 264   Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-57 76%    
  Dec 10, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara L 67-75 22%    
  Dec 19, 2022 228   @ Pacific L 72-73 50%    
  Dec 20, 2022 285   Cal Poly W 68-59 79%    
  Dec 28, 2022 78   UNLV L 64-69 33%    
  Dec 31, 2022 72   @ Colorado St. L 61-72 15%    
  Jan 03, 2023 61   @ Boise St. L 56-68 14%    
  Jan 07, 2023 69   Nevada L 67-73 30%    
  Jan 10, 2023 154   Fresno St. W 61-60 55%    
  Jan 17, 2023 57   @ New Mexico L 67-80 13%    
  Jan 21, 2023 34   @ Utah St. L 65-80 9%    
  Jan 24, 2023 219   Air Force W 64-59 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 25   @ San Diego St. L 60-77 6%    
  Feb 04, 2023 146   Wyoming W 67-66 53%    
  Feb 07, 2023 154   @ Fresno St. L 58-63 34%    
  Feb 11, 2023 34   Utah St. L 68-77 22%    
  Feb 14, 2023 78   @ UNLV L 61-72 17%    
  Feb 17, 2023 57   New Mexico L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 21, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 64-76 15%    
  Feb 25, 2023 61   Boise St. L 59-65 30%    
  Feb 28, 2023 72   Colorado St. L 64-69 31%    
  Mar 04, 2023 219   @ Air Force L 61-62 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 5 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.4 0.8 0.0 9.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.9 6.1 5.0 1.2 0.1 15.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 5.0 8.3 5.6 1.4 0.1 21.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.1 6.7 8.8 4.9 1.1 0.1 23.7 10th
11th 0.8 3.4 5.9 5.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 17.8 11th
Total 0.8 3.6 8.0 12.8 16.2 16.6 14.1 10.9 7.6 4.8 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 28.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 13.3% 3.3% 10.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 10.3%
12-6 0.5% 6.9% 6.1% 0.8% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.8%
11-7 1.3% 4.3% 3.3% 1.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1.0%
10-8 2.6% 1.8% 1.8% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6
9-9 4.8% 1.8% 1.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
8-10 7.6% 1.2% 1.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.5
7-11 10.9% 1.2% 1.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 14.1% 1.1% 1.1% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.9
5-13 16.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 16.5
4-14 16.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 16.1
3-15 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.8
2-16 8.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.0
1-17 3.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.6
0-18 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.8
Total 100% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%