Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.4#42
Expected Predictive Rating+14.5#31
Pace70.2#158
Improvement-1.1#261

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#9
First Shot+12.1#2
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#322
Layup/Dunks+1.7#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#150
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#32
Freethrows+4.0#8
Improvement-0.1#194

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#129
First Shot+0.2#160
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#115
Layups/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#301
Freethrows+2.9#26
Improvement-1.0#270
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.7% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 6.0% 6.2% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 13.9% 14.2% 4.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 60.2% 60.8% 42.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 47.3% 47.8% 31.4%
Average Seed 8.5 8.5 9.7
.500 or above 99.2% 99.3% 96.8%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 94.7% 90.0%
Conference Champion 33.4% 33.7% 21.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.0% 8.0% 8.2%
First Round56.1% 56.6% 37.7%
Second Round29.2% 29.6% 15.2%
Sweet Sixteen10.6% 10.9% 2.4%
Elite Eight4.2% 4.4% 0.1%
Final Four1.9% 1.9% 0.0%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 25 - 37 - 6
Quad 38 - 116 - 8
Quad 48 - 023 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 170   Oral Roberts W 109-80 89%     1 - 0 +25.8 +22.1 +1.4
  Nov 12, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 91-71 99%     2 - 0 -2.7 +3.7 -7.4
  Nov 19, 2021 213   Bradley W 66-60 88%     3 - 0 +3.8 -7.5 +11.3
  Nov 21, 2021 66   Creighton W 95-81 62%     4 - 0 +21.4 +23.7 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2021 148   Northeastern W 71-61 80%     5 - 0 +11.4 +7.0 +5.0
  Nov 27, 2021 175   Northern Colorado W 88-79 90%     6 - 0 +5.3 +17.7 -11.6
  Dec 01, 2021 289   Arkansas Little Rock W 86-66 97%    
  Dec 04, 2021 41   St. Mary's W 69-66 60%    
  Dec 11, 2021 38   Mississippi St. L 71-72 49%    
  Dec 17, 2021 142   Tulsa W 78-69 79%    
  Dec 20, 2021 13   Alabama L 79-84 32%    
  Dec 28, 2021 201   @ New Mexico W 88-79 81%    
  Jan 04, 2022 256   Air Force W 77-58 96%    
  Jan 07, 2022 79   @ Boise St. W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 12, 2022 46   Utah St. W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 15, 2022 280   @ San Jose St. W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 19, 2022 201   New Mexico W 91-76 92%    
  Jan 22, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 74-61 88%    
  Jan 25, 2022 92   Nevada W 83-75 75%    
  Jan 28, 2022 147   UNLV W 78-66 85%    
  Jan 31, 2022 84   @ Wyoming W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 04, 2022 48   San Diego St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 08, 2022 92   @ Nevada W 80-78 56%    
  Feb 11, 2022 129   Fresno St. W 76-65 84%    
  Feb 19, 2022 147   @ UNLV W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 23, 2022 84   Wyoming W 79-72 72%    
  Feb 26, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 74-76 43%    
  Mar 01, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 05, 2022 79   Boise St. W 75-68 72%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.9 7.4 10.2 7.6 3.9 1.1 33.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.7 8.7 7.0 2.5 0.3 22.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.8 6.9 4.0 1.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.3 2.3 5.3 2.9 0.3 11.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 3.3 2.4 0.2 7.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.3 0.2 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.5 3.1 5.1 7.4 11.1 14.0 15.9 15.3 12.6 7.9 3.9 1.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
17-1 100.0% 3.9    3.9
16-2 95.7% 7.6    7.0 0.6
15-3 80.6% 10.2    6.8 3.2 0.2 0.0
14-4 48.0% 7.4    3.4 3.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 18.0% 2.9    0.6 1.2 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.4% 33.4 22.8 8.3 2.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.1% 100.0% 61.3% 38.7% 2.7 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.9% 99.4% 53.2% 46.2% 4.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.8%
16-2 7.9% 97.9% 43.2% 54.7% 6.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.3%
15-3 12.6% 92.3% 35.8% 56.6% 7.6 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.2 2.4 2.0 2.1 1.2 0.8 0.1 1.0 88.1%
14-4 15.3% 84.7% 32.9% 51.8% 9.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.9 2.9 2.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 2.4 77.2%
13-5 15.9% 66.9% 22.7% 44.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.9 2.9 3.5 1.1 0.0 5.3 57.2%
12-6 14.0% 49.8% 16.8% 33.0% 10.6 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.5 2.9 1.4 0.0 7.0 39.7%
11-7 11.1% 29.6% 13.3% 16.4% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.1 0.0 7.8 18.9%
10-8 7.4% 16.3% 11.3% 5.0% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 6.2 5.6%
9-9 5.1% 9.1% 6.9% 2.2% 11.9 0.1 0.3 0.0 4.6 2.4%
8-10 3.1% 5.0% 5.0% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 12.0 0.0 1.4
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 60.2% 24.6% 35.7% 8.5 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.8 3.9 4.1 5.5 5.9 8.5 9.2 11.7 5.3 0.2 39.8 47.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 76.0 24.0