Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.5#75
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#91
Pace60.6#358
Improvement-1.2#276

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#32
First Shot+6.7#31
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#104
Layup/Dunks-1.3#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#7
Freethrows+1.6#104
Improvement-2.0#332

Defense
Total Defense-0.6#187
First Shot-3.0#275
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#51
Layups/Dunks+1.2#132
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#312
Freethrows+0.8#138
Improvement+0.7#117
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.3% 17.1% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 4.9% 1.3%
Average Seed 10.7 10.5 11.1
.500 or above 94.9% 97.8% 91.3%
.500 or above in Conference 85.3% 88.2% 81.6%
Conference Champion 14.0% 16.5% 10.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four1.7% 2.5% 0.8%
First Round13.4% 15.8% 10.4%
Second Round4.3% 5.6% 2.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 1.2% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 55.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 24 - 45 - 7
Quad 38 - 213 - 10
Quad 48 - 121 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 168 Incarnate Word W 98-64 86%     1 - 0 +30.1 +27.4 +5.0
  Sun, Nov 9 253 Nebraska Omaha W 97-74 92%     2 - 0 +15.1 +24.9 -8.2
  Wed, Nov 12 246 Cal Poly W 93-79 91%     3 - 0 +6.3 +10.8 -5.4
  Sun, Nov 16 262 @Loyola Chicago W 80-67 83%     4 - 0 +10.4 +17.8 -5.3
  Fri, Nov 21 296 Denver L 81-83 94%     4 - 1 -12.5 +13.0 -25.8
  Wed, Nov 26 70 Virginia Tech L 64-66 49%     4 - 2 +5.8 +2.2 +3.3
  Thu, Nov 27 98 Wichita St. W 76-70 59%     5 - 2 +11.0 +20.0 -7.8
  Fri, Nov 28 86 South Florida W 83-68 55%     6 - 2 +21.3 +13.9 +7.7
  Sat, Dec 6 63 Colorado W 76-74 56%    
  Tue, Dec 9 247 Dartmouth W 83-68 92%    
  Sat, Dec 20 43 @Utah St. L 71-78 25%    
  Tue, Dec 30 105 Nevada W 75-69 71%    
  Sat, Jan 3 95 @Grand Canyon L 71-72 48%    
  Tue, Jan 6 104 New Mexico W 79-73 70%    
  Fri, Jan 9 130 UNLV W 83-75 79%    
  Tue, Jan 13 180 @Fresno St. W 77-71 70%    
  Fri, Jan 16 59 @Boise St. L 67-72 33%    
  Tue, Jan 20 327 Air Force W 77-57 97%    
  Fri, Jan 23 43 Utah St. L 74-75 46%    
  Wed, Jan 28 55 @San Diego St. L 70-75 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 106 @Wyoming W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Feb 7 201 San Jose St. W 76-63 88%    
  Tue, Feb 10 327 @Air Force W 74-60 90%    
  Sat, Feb 14 106 Wyoming W 76-70 71%    
  Wed, Feb 18 130 @UNLV W 80-78 59%    
  Sat, Feb 21 55 San Diego St. W 73-72 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 180 Fresno St. W 80-68 86%    
  Sat, Feb 28 201 @San Jose St. W 73-66 74%    
  Wed, Mar 4 104 @New Mexico W 77-76 50%    
  Sat, Mar 7 59 Boise St. W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 2.9 4.1 3.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 14.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 5.3 5.6 2.8 0.6 0.0 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.2 5.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 15.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.3 4.8 1.2 0.1 14.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.1 4.2 0.9 0.1 12.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.8 3.6 0.8 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.7 2.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.1 6.5 9.3 11.8 13.7 13.9 12.8 10.2 7.1 4.0 1.8 0.6 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 97.9% 1.7    1.6 0.2
17-3 85.6% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 58.3% 4.1    2.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
15-5 28.7% 2.9    1.0 1.3 0.6 0.1
14-6 7.7% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.0% 14.0 8.3 4.1 1.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 96.2% 34.6% 61.5% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.1%
19-1 0.6% 85.9% 40.7% 45.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 76.2%
18-2 1.8% 68.9% 37.0% 31.9% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 50.6%
17-3 4.0% 48.5% 28.4% 20.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.1 2.1 28.1%
16-4 7.1% 34.7% 25.5% 9.2% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 0.1 4.6 12.4%
15-5 10.2% 21.2% 18.1% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 0.3 8.1 3.9%
14-6 12.8% 16.1% 15.0% 1.1% 11.2 0.1 1.5 0.5 0.0 10.7 1.3%
13-7 13.9% 11.4% 11.0% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 1.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.5%
12-8 13.7% 7.9% 7.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 12.6 0.1%
11-9 11.8% 5.0% 4.9% 0.0% 11.8 0.2 0.4 0.0 11.2 0.0%
10-10 9.3% 3.9% 3.9% 12.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 8.9
9-11 6.5% 2.3% 2.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.3
8-12 4.1% 1.6% 1.6% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.1
7-13 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.3% 11.4% 2.9% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 7.3 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.7 3.3%