Colorado St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#113
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#150
Pace66.2#240
Improvement-1.4#329

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#68
First Shot+7.3#16
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#356
Layup/Dunks+5.7#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#83
Freethrows+0.9#106
Improvement-0.1#214

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#194
First Shot-1.4#224
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#100
Layups/Dunks+2.2#92
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#203
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#320
Freethrows+0.2#165
Improvement-1.3#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 2.7% 2.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.3 15.8
.500 or above 6.4% 13.5% 2.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 3.0% 0.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.6% 19.2% 42.0%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.5%
First Round2.1% 2.5% 1.8%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Home) - 36.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 7
Quad 22 - 54 - 12
Quad 33 - 46 - 16
Quad 46 - 212 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 192   Gardner-Webb W 65-63 76%     1 - 0 -1.9 -5.2 +3.3
  Nov 11, 2022 273   SE Louisiana W 80-69 87%     2 - 0 +2.5 +5.0 -1.8
  Nov 14, 2022 213   Weber St. W 77-52 79%     3 - 0 +20.1 +6.1 +14.8
  Nov 17, 2022 229   South Carolina W 85-53 74%     4 - 0 +28.6 +9.5 +18.6
  Nov 18, 2022 83   @ College of Charleston L 64-74 29%     4 - 1 -0.7 -6.2 +5.7
  Nov 20, 2022 45   Penn St. L 56-68 25%     4 - 2 -1.5 -11.1 +9.1
  Nov 26, 2022 361   Mississippi Valley W 88-45 97%     5 - 2 +23.1 +4.6 +17.0
  Nov 30, 2022 91   Loyola Marymount W 87-71 53%     6 - 2 +18.7 +15.4 +3.2
  Dec 03, 2022 268   Northern Colorado L 83-88 86%     6 - 3 -13.3 +3.7 -17.1
  Dec 08, 2022 61   @ Colorado L 65-93 22%     6 - 4 -16.7 +2.7 -20.1
  Dec 18, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's W 62-60 10%     7 - 4 +19.7 +14.6 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2022 44   USC L 64-73 25%     7 - 5 +1.5 -4.7 +6.4
  Dec 28, 2022 54   @ New Mexico L 69-88 20%     7 - 6 0 - 1 -6.7 +1.5 -8.4
  Dec 31, 2022 119   San Jose St. L 70-78 63%     7 - 7 0 - 2 -8.0 -0.3 -8.2
  Jan 04, 2023 59   @ Nevada L 69-80 22%     7 - 8 0 - 3 +0.7 +8.1 -8.5
  Jan 07, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 79-57 72%     8 - 8 1 - 3 +19.3 +18.5 +3.7
  Jan 10, 2023 168   Air Force L 74-85 OT 72%     8 - 9 1 - 4 -13.7 -0.4 -13.2
  Jan 14, 2023 76   @ UNLV W 82-81 OT 27%     9 - 9 2 - 4 +10.7 +4.3 +6.3
  Jan 18, 2023 33   San Diego St. L 76-82 OT 28%     9 - 10 2 - 5 +3.4 +6.2 -2.7
  Jan 21, 2023 139   @ Wyoming L 57-58 46%     9 - 11 2 - 6 +3.4 -13.8 +17.2
  Jan 28, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 59-80 15%     9 - 12 2 - 7 -6.5 +4.8 -14.2
  Jan 31, 2023 76   UNLV L 71-83 47%     9 - 13 2 - 8 -7.8 +4.0 -12.2
  Feb 04, 2023 47   Utah St. L 74-78 37%    
  Feb 07, 2023 168   @ Air Force W 67-66 51%    
  Feb 15, 2023 36   Boise St. L 64-70 31%    
  Feb 18, 2023 169   @ Fresno St. W 65-64 51%    
  Feb 21, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. L 66-77 13%    
  Feb 24, 2023 139   Wyoming W 74-70 67%    
  Feb 28, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. L 67-69 42%    
  Mar 03, 2023 54   New Mexico L 75-78 38%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.8 7.2 2.5 0.2 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.0 4.7 13.5 4.9 0.4 0.0 23.6 8th
9th 0.0 2.7 13.1 5.6 0.3 21.8 9th
10th 1.3 9.7 7.6 0.5 19.0 10th
11th 1.7 7.2 7.2 0.9 0.0 17.1 11th
Total 1.7 8.6 19.6 26.4 23.5 13.9 5.1 1.1 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 6.1% 3.0% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 3.1%
9-9 1.1% 5.9% 5.9% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-10 5.1% 3.9% 3.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.9
7-11 13.9% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 13.4
6-12 23.5% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.1 0.5 22.9
5-13 26.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.5 25.9
4-14 19.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.4 19.2
3-15 8.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 8.4
2-16 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 6.1% 11.0 6.1
Lose Out 1.7% 1.8% 16.0 1.8