IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
San Diego St.
Mountain West
2025-26

Overall
Predictive Rating	+13.2	#38
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	65.3	#258
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+4.6	#59

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+8.6	#13

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.2%	0.2%	0.0%
#1 Seed	1.2%	1.3%	0.6%
Top 2 Seed	3.2%	3.3%	1.0%
Top 4 Seed	9.9%	10.0%	2.1%
Top 6 Seed	18.1%	18.4%	6.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	54.9%	55.4%	32.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	34.2%	34.7%	17.3%
Average Seed	7.7	7.6	8.8

.500 or above	96.3%	96.6%	83.2%
.500 or above in Conference	95.1%	95.3%	86.1%
Conference Champion	41.6%	42.0%	21.8%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%

First Four	6.1%	6.1%	4.7%
First Round	52.0%	52.5%	30.0%
Second Round	31.8%	32.1%	15.8%
Sweet Sixteen	12.8%	13.0%	3.9%
Elite Eight	5.4%	5.5%	1.2%
Final Four	2.3%	2.3%	0.6%
Championship Game	1.0%	1.0%	0.2%
National Champion	0.4%	0.4%	0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	1 - 2	1 - 2
Quad 1b	2 - 2	2 - 4
Quad 2	5 - 3	8 - 7
Quad 3	8 - 1	16 - 8
Quad 4	7 - 0	22 - 8

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 04, 2025	264	Long Beach St.	W	75-53	98%
Nov 09, 2025	282	Idaho St.	W	77-54	98%
Nov 18, 2025	130	Troy	W	72-58	90%
Nov 24, 2025	6	Michigan	L	67-73	28%
Nov 25, 2025	28	Oregon	L	68-69	46%
Dec 03, 2025	119	Utah Valley	W	74-60	89%
Dec 10, 2025	218	Lamar	W	73-53	96%
Dec 17, 2025	280	Air Force	W	75-52	97%
Dec 20, 2025	10	Arizona	L	70-75	34%
Dec 30, 2025	159	@ San Jose St.	W	71-61	81%
Jan 03, 2026	62	Boise St.	W	70-63	72%
Jan 06, 2026	98	@ Nevada	W	66-61	66%
Jan 10, 2026	198	Fresno St.	W	80-62	94%
Jan 14, 2026	155	@ Wyoming	W	69-59	80%
Jan 17, 2026	79	New Mexico	W	76-67	78%
Jan 21, 2026	80	@ Grand Canyon	W	73-70	60%
Jan 24, 2026	86	@ UNLV	W	68-64	63%
Jan 28, 2026	94	Colorado St.	W	72-61	82%
Jan 31, 2026	54	@ Utah St.	W	70-69	50%
Feb 03, 2026	155	Wyoming	W	72-56	91%
Feb 07, 2026	280	@ Air Force	W	72-55	92%
Feb 14, 2026	98	Nevada	W	69-58	82%
Feb 17, 2026	80	Grand Canyon	W	76-67	78%
Feb 21, 2026	94	@ Colorado St.	W	69-64	65%
Feb 25, 2026	54	Utah St.	W	73-67	69%
Feb 28, 2026	79	@ New Mexico	W	73-70	60%
Mar 03, 2026	62	@ Boise St.	W	67-66	53%
Mar 06, 2026	86	UNLV	W	71-61	80%
Projected Record						21 - 7	15 - 5

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Mountain West Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st													0.0	0.1	0.6	3.1	7.2	10.5	10.2	6.9	3.1		41.6	1st
2nd												0.0	0.1	1.0	4.3	6.8	5.7	2.5	0.5				20.8	2nd
3rd												0.1	1.0	3.6	4.9	2.5	0.5	0.0					12.6	3rd
4th											0.1	0.9	2.8	3.6	1.3	0.1	0.0						8.8	4th
5th										0.1	0.6	2.0	2.5	0.8	0.1								6.0	5th
6th									0.0	0.4	1.4	1.7	0.6	0.0									4.1	6th
7th								0.0	0.2	1.0	1.1	0.4	0.0										2.8	7th
8th							0.0	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.2	0.0											1.8	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.4	0.4	0.1	0.0												1.0	9th
10th					0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.4	10th
11th				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0															0.1	11th
12th		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0																0.0	12th

Total		0.0		0.0	0.0	0.2	0.3	0.7	1.3	2.3	3.4	5.0	7.0	9.1	11.1	12.5	13.4	13.0	10.6	6.9	3.1			Total

Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	3.1		3.1
19-1	100.0%	6.9		6.8	0.1
18-2	95.7%	10.2		9.2	1.0
17-3	80.5%	10.5		7.7	2.6	0.2
16-4	53.9%	7.2		3.8	2.8	0.6	0.0
15-5	24.6%	3.1		1.0	1.3	0.7	0.2	0.0
14-6	5.0%	0.6		0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.9%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.1%	0.0							0.0
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	41.6%	41.6		31.6	8.0	1.6	0.3	0.0	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	3.1%		99.5%	70.4%	29.1%	2.8		0.7	0.8	0.6	0.5	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0								0.0		98.2%
19-1	6.9%		97.7%	59.8%	37.9%	4.3		0.4	0.9	1.3	1.4	1.0	0.7	0.5	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0						0.2		94.4%
18-2	10.6%		94.3%	53.6%	40.7%	6.2		0.1	0.3	0.7	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.4	1.1	1.0	0.7	0.1						0.6		87.6%
17-3	13.0%		86.2%	45.3%	41.0%	7.9			0.0	0.2	0.5	0.9	1.3	1.7	1.8	2.1	1.9	0.8	0.0					1.8		74.8%
16-4	13.4%		71.0%	34.2%	36.8%	9.0				0.0	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.9	1.5	2.0	2.9	1.5	0.0					3.9		55.9%
15-5	12.5%		53.2%	29.0%	24.1%	9.8						0.0	0.1	0.2	0.5	1.2	2.4	2.1	0.1	0.0				5.9		34.0%
14-6	11.1%		36.0%	21.8%	14.2%	10.3							0.0	0.0	0.1	0.5	1.5	1.7	0.1	0.0				7.1		18.1%
13-7	9.1%		22.5%	16.1%	6.4%	10.6									0.0	0.1	0.7	1.1	0.1					7.1		7.6%
12-8	7.0%		13.4%	10.8%	2.6%	10.9										0.0	0.2	0.6	0.2					6.1		2.9%
11-9	5.0%		8.7%	7.9%	0.8%	11.2											0.0	0.3	0.1	0.0				4.5		0.9%
10-10	3.4%		4.8%	4.6%	0.2%	11.2											0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0				3.2		0.3%
9-11	2.3%		3.0%	3.0%		12.2												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		2.2
8-12	1.3%		1.8%	1.8%		14.3													0.0		0.0	0.0		1.3
7-13	0.7%		1.8%	1.8%		15.0																0.0		0.7
6-14	0.3%		1.3%	1.3%		15.0																0.0		0.3
5-15	0.2%		4.9%	4.9%		23.0																0.0	0.0	0.2
4-16	0.0%																							0.0
3-17	0.0%																							0.0
2-18
1-19	0.0%																							0.0
0-20

Total	100%		54.9%	31.4%	23.5%	7.7		1.2	2.0	2.8	3.9	4.0	4.2	4.7	5.5	7.2	10.3	8.3	0.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	45.1		34.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.4%	100.0%	1.5	58.2	33.2	8.6	0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%	100.0%	2.4	23.8	33.4	23.7	14.4	4.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.0%	100.0%	2.2	33.5	33.3	16.7	8.1	8.3