San Diego St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#48
Expected Predictive Rating+10.4#58
Pace63.9#308
Improvement-0.7#237

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#136
First Shot+0.9#150
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks+0.7#141
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#57
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#337
Freethrows+3.7#15
Improvement-1.4#309

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#9
First Shot+11.8#2
After Offensive Rebounds-3.4#334
Layups/Dunks+3.5#64
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.1#7
Freethrows+1.7#84
Improvement+0.7#106
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.5% 1.7% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 6.4% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 15.2% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.8% 61.3% 39.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.2% 47.8% 24.4%
Average Seed 9.3 8.4 9.7
.500 or above 97.1% 99.3% 96.5%
.500 or above in Conference 93.2% 95.5% 92.5%
Conference Champion 27.4% 36.4% 24.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four7.3% 8.7% 7.0%
First Round40.5% 56.9% 35.9%
Second Round18.8% 31.1% 15.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 11.9% 5.0%
Elite Eight2.7% 5.2% 2.0%
Final Four0.8% 1.5% 0.6%
Championship Game0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
National Champion0.1% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Michigan (Away) - 21.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 6
Quad 24 - 36 - 8
Quad 38 - 113 - 10
Quad 48 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 139   UC Riverside W 66-53 84%     1 - 0 +12.0 -1.4 +13.8
  Nov 12, 2021 20   @ BYU L 60-66 23%     1 - 1 +11.4 -2.4 +13.5
  Nov 18, 2021 96   Arizona St. W 65-63 76%     2 - 1 +4.3 -5.3 +9.7
  Nov 20, 2021 234   Texas Arlington W 68-62 93%     3 - 1 -0.6 -3.5 +3.1
  Nov 25, 2021 128   Georgetown W 73-56 75%     4 - 1 +19.5 +1.5 +18.2
  Nov 26, 2021 16   USC L 43-58 30%     4 - 2 +0.0 -12.2 +9.1
  Nov 30, 2021 297   Long Beach St. W 72-47 96%     5 - 2 +14.7 -9.9 +23.4
  Dec 04, 2021 15   @ Michigan L 59-67 22%    
  Dec 08, 2021 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-57 92%    
  Dec 17, 2021 41   St. Mary's L 57-58 46%    
  Dec 22, 2021 193   UC San Diego W 71-57 90%    
  Jan 01, 2022 147   @ UNLV W 64-59 69%    
  Jan 05, 2022 129   Fresno St. W 66-56 83%    
  Jan 08, 2022 92   Nevada W 71-64 73%    
  Jan 11, 2022 84   @ Wyoming W 65-64 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 201   @ New Mexico W 76-68 78%    
  Jan 18, 2022 147   UNLV W 67-56 85%    
  Jan 22, 2022 79   Boise St. W 64-58 70%    
  Jan 26, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 63-66 40%    
  Jan 31, 2022 201   New Mexico W 79-65 90%    
  Feb 04, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-70 37%    
  Feb 09, 2022 280   @ San Jose St. W 70-57 87%    
  Feb 12, 2022 256   Air Force W 67-49 94%    
  Feb 15, 2022 46   Utah St. W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 19, 2022 129   @ Fresno St. W 63-59 65%    
  Feb 22, 2022 79   @ Boise St. L 60-61 49%    
  Feb 25, 2022 280   San Jose St. W 73-54 95%    
  Mar 01, 2022 42   Colorado St. W 69-67 58%    
  Mar 05, 2022 92   @ Nevada W 68-67 54%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.6 6.2 9.4 5.4 2.6 0.8 27.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 8.6 6.7 2.4 0.2 21.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.7 7.6 4.2 0.6 0.1 16.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.6 5.8 3.2 0.5 12.3 4th
5th 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.5 0.1 0.0 9.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.7 0.1 6.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.2 3.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.1 3.6 6.3 9.1 12.7 14.6 15.8 13.6 12.0 5.6 2.6 0.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.8    0.8
17-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.0
16-2 96.6% 5.4    4.8 0.6
15-3 78.9% 9.4    6.6 2.7 0.1 0.0
14-4 45.9% 6.2    2.8 2.8 0.7 0.0
13-5 16.3% 2.6    0.5 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.4% 27.4 18.2 7.4 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.8% 97.5% 61.0% 36.5% 3.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.5%
17-1 2.6% 99.9% 46.0% 53.9% 5.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 5.6% 94.3% 41.0% 53.3% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.3 90.4%
15-3 12.0% 87.0% 34.5% 52.5% 8.8 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.3 2.2 1.5 0.4 1.6 80.2%
14-4 13.6% 67.9% 29.4% 38.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.6 2.4 2.7 1.0 0.0 4.3 54.6%
13-5 15.8% 48.1% 21.2% 26.9% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.7 3.1 1.6 0.1 8.2 34.2%
12-6 14.6% 26.4% 15.0% 11.4% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.1 10.8 13.4%
11-7 12.7% 19.5% 13.4% 6.2% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.2 7.1%
10-8 9.1% 8.9% 6.7% 2.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 8.3 2.3%
9-9 6.3% 6.9% 6.5% 0.4% 12.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 5.9 0.4%
8-10 3.6% 5.3% 5.3% 13.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.4
7-11 2.1% 4.1% 4.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 43.8% 20.7% 23.1% 9.3 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.0 2.7 3.6 6.1 7.8 10.2 6.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 56.2 29.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.3 41.9 14.9 28.4 14.9