Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.8#79
Expected Predictive Rating+2.1#147
Pace65.5#269
Improvement-2.9#340

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#124
First Shot+0.1#176
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#90
Layup/Dunks+3.5#68
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#173
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#216
Freethrows-2.1#297
Improvement-1.4#306

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#50
First Shot+2.9#88
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#52
Layups/Dunks+0.7#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#236
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#40
Freethrows-1.5#269
Improvement-1.5#305
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 20.5% 10.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.8% 10.3% 3.9%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.2
.500 or above 78.2% 82.9% 62.0%
.500 or above in Conference 76.6% 78.9% 68.7%
Conference Champion 10.4% 11.3% 7.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
First Four3.0% 3.4% 1.7%
First Round16.7% 18.6% 10.2%
Second Round6.2% 7.0% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.8% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 77.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 24 - 56 - 10
Quad 37 - 313 - 13
Quad 45 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 152   Utah Valley W 76-56 80%     1 - 0 +17.8 +3.9 +14.4
  Nov 13, 2021 74   @ UC Irvine L 50-58 38%     1 - 1 +2.0 -11.2 +12.6
  Nov 18, 2021 39   St. Bonaventure L 61-67 35%     1 - 2 +4.7 +2.4 +1.4
  Nov 19, 2021 150   Temple W 82-62 71%     2 - 2 +21.2 +18.8 +4.6
  Nov 21, 2021 69   Mississippi W 60-50 48%     3 - 2 +17.2 -4.3 +21.9
  Nov 26, 2021 206   Cal St. Bakersfield L 39-46 86%     3 - 3 -12.0 -28.0 +15.1
  Nov 30, 2021 56   Saint Louis L 82-86 OT 56%     3 - 4 +1.2 +4.4 -2.9
  Dec 03, 2021 142   Tulsa W 70-62 77%    
  Dec 07, 2021 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-58 82%    
  Dec 10, 2021 242   Prairie View W 78-64 91%    
  Dec 14, 2021 82   Santa Clara W 72-69 62%    
  Dec 22, 2021 60   Washington St. L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 28, 2021 129   Fresno St. W 67-60 75%    
  Jan 01, 2022 84   @ Wyoming L 66-69 40%    
  Jan 04, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 64-70 29%    
  Jan 07, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 12, 2022 92   @ Nevada L 70-72 41%    
  Jan 18, 2022 256   Air Force W 68-53 92%    
  Jan 22, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 58-64 30%    
  Jan 25, 2022 84   Wyoming W 69-66 62%    
  Jan 28, 2022 129   @ Fresno St. W 64-63 55%    
  Feb 05, 2022 280   San Jose St. W 74-58 93%    
  Feb 08, 2022 201   @ New Mexico W 77-71 69%    
  Feb 11, 2022 147   UNLV W 68-60 77%    
  Feb 15, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 65-56 81%    
  Feb 19, 2022 46   Utah St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 22, 2022 48   San Diego St. W 61-60 51%    
  Feb 26, 2022 147   @ UNLV W 65-63 58%    
  Mar 01, 2022 92   Nevada W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 05, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 68-75 28%    
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.5 3.2 3.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 10.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.9 3.1 0.7 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.7 7.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 14.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.8 6.9 2.9 0.3 14.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.8 7.1 3.2 0.3 14.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.7 2.6 0.2 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.9 4.4 2.3 0.2 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.6 1.3 0.2 6.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 2.2 4.0 6.4 9.6 12.3 14.3 14.5 13.3 9.3 6.7 4.0 1.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 98.2% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-3 81.0% 3.3    2.1 1.1 0.1 0.0
14-4 47.3% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-5 16.4% 1.5    0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 1.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 10.4% 10.4 5.8 3.4 1.0 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 35.3% 64.7% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.5% 96.0% 43.8% 52.2% 5.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.8%
16-2 1.6% 91.9% 36.3% 55.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.2%
15-3 4.0% 77.3% 27.6% 49.7% 9.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.9 68.6%
14-4 6.7% 54.0% 24.0% 30.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 3.1 39.5%
13-5 9.3% 37.3% 19.9% 17.4% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.6 0.8 0.0 5.8 21.8%
12-6 13.3% 18.7% 13.5% 5.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 10.8 6.0%
11-7 14.5% 11.4% 9.5% 1.9% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.1 12.8 2.1%
10-8 14.3% 5.6% 5.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.3%
9-9 12.3% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 12.5 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.7 0.0%
8-10 9.6% 3.0% 3.0% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 9.4
7-11 6.4% 2.6% 2.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.2
6-12 4.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 3.8
5-13 2.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.2
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 18.3% 10.5% 7.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 2.2 3.1 5.8 3.8 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 81.7 8.8%