Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.6#46
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#46
Pace66.1#249
Improvement+2.6#70

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#61
First Shot+3.0#97
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#62
Layup/Dunks+3.9#46
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#321
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#105
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement+4.4#17

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#36
First Shot+3.3#68
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#33
Layups/Dunks+0.8#148
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#4
Freethrows-1.8#294
Improvement-1.8#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 5.9% 6.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.1% 61.5% 39.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 52.1% 55.8% 32.5%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 32.5% 36.8% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.6% 10.5% 11.0%
First Round52.6% 56.0% 34.3%
Second Round24.9% 26.9% 14.4%
Sweet Sixteen6.2% 6.8% 3.2%
Elite Eight2.1% 2.3% 1.0%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 84.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 5
Quad 24 - 48 - 8
Quad 35 - 113 - 10
Quad 46 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2023 66   San Francisco W 63-58 68%     1 - 0 +10.8 -4.0 +15.0
  Nov 19, 2023 26   @ Clemson L 68-85 31%     1 - 1 -1.3 +2.4 -4.0
  Nov 23, 2023 57   Virginia Tech L 75-82 55%     1 - 2 +2.3 +2.6 +0.0
  Nov 24, 2023 85   Virginia Commonwealth W 65-61 65%     2 - 2 +10.6 +3.6 +7.3
  Nov 26, 2023 56   Butler L 56-70 55%     2 - 3 -4.6 -10.8 +5.6
  Dec 01, 2023 24   St. Mary's W 63-60 40%     3 - 3 +16.2 +4.8 +11.8
  Dec 05, 2023 93   North Texas W 69-64 75%     4 - 3 +8.4 -0.7 +9.1
  Dec 12, 2023 320   Northwestern St. W 95-54 97%     5 - 3 +28.7 +28.4 +5.5
  Dec 17, 2023 232   Cal St. Fullerton W 88-65 93%     6 - 3 +16.7 +18.9 -1.1
  Dec 21, 2023 36   Washington St. L 61-66 46%     6 - 4 +6.5 -5.9 +12.5
  Dec 29, 2023 155   Utah Valley W 85-63 88%     7 - 4 +19.6 +15.5 +4.3
  Jan 05, 2024 233   @ San Jose St. W 78-69 86%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +8.1 +3.6 +4.6
  Jan 09, 2024 37   Colorado St. W 65-58 58%     9 - 4 2 - 0 +15.5 +1.5 +14.6
  Jan 12, 2024 45   @ Nevada W 64-56 39%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +21.3 -0.5 +22.0
  Jan 16, 2024 76   UNLV L 64-68 72%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +0.4 +0.1 -0.2
  Jan 20, 2024 20   San Diego St. W 67-66 48%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +12.0 +5.6 +6.5
  Jan 23, 2024 187   @ Fresno St. W 72-68 81%     12 - 5 5 - 1 +5.3 +11.2 -5.3
  Jan 27, 2024 48   Utah St. L 84-90 OT 61%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +1.8 +5.5 -3.1
  Jan 31, 2024 32   @ New Mexico W 86-78 34%     13 - 6 6 - 2 +22.8 +18.0 +4.6
  Feb 03, 2024 227   Air Force W 94-56 93%     14 - 6 7 - 2 +31.9 +34.1 +5.0
  Feb 06, 2024 37   @ Colorado St. L 62-75 37%     14 - 7 7 - 3 +1.0 +2.9 -3.4
  Feb 10, 2024 48   @ Utah St. L 61-80 40%     14 - 8 7 - 4 -5.8 -2.6 -4.3
  Feb 17, 2024 187   Fresno St. W 90-66 91%     15 - 8 8 - 4 +19.8 +24.2 -2.0
  Feb 20, 2024 233   San Jose St. W 82-50 93%     16 - 8 9 - 4 +25.6 +9.5 +18.5
  Feb 24, 2024 176   @ Wyoming W 92-72 79%     17 - 8 10 - 4 +21.9 +20.8 +1.7
  Feb 27, 2024 227   @ Air Force W 73-62 85%    
  Mar 02, 2024 32   New Mexico W 78-77 56%    
  Mar 05, 2024 45   Nevada W 71-68 61%    
  Mar 08, 2024 20   @ San Diego St. L 65-71 28%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 2.4 21.1 8.9 32.5 1st
2nd 0.0 14.5 12.2 26.7 2nd
3rd 1.6 19.1 20.8 3rd
4th 0.0 8.5 1.8 10.3 4th
5th 0.3 6.2 6.5 5th
6th 1.3 1.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.9 0.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 2.5 17.4 37.9 33.3 8.9 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 8.9    5.5 3.4
13-5 63.4% 21.1    3.3 10.6 7.2
12-6 6.5% 2.4    0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 32.5% 32.5 8.8 14.1 7.4 1.0 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 8.9% 97.6% 17.1% 80.5% 6.1 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.0 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.1%
13-5 33.3% 76.8% 13.7% 63.1% 8.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 7.1 9.4 6.3 0.7 7.7 73.1%
12-6 37.9% 50.2% 11.8% 38.4% 9.9 0.0 1.0 4.4 9.8 3.7 0.0 18.9 43.5%
11-7 17.4% 26.2% 9.7% 16.5% 10.5 0.0 0.2 2.0 2.4 0.0 12.9 18.2%
10-8 2.5% 10.1% 8.6% 1.5% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 1.6%
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 58.1% 12.5% 45.6% 8.9 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.1 4.1 8.9 14.1 18.1 7.1 0.1 41.9 52.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.9% 97.6% 6.1 0.2 5.0 25.0 33.2 25.2 8.0 1.0 0.0
Lose Out 2.5% 10.1% 11.0 1.1 8.0 1.0