Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#36
Expected Predictive Rating+11.6#38
Pace66.6#229
Improvement+1.3#44

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#105
First Shot+2.4#93
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#165
Layup/Dunks+3.8#45
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#113
Freethrows-0.8#246
Improvement+1.4#22

Defense
Total Defense+9.2#9
First Shot+7.2#16
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#30
Layups/Dunks-0.6#207
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#127
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#21
Freethrows+2.4#31
Improvement-0.1#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 2.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 7.1% 15.5% 2.1%
Top 6 Seed 27.4% 47.0% 15.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.6% 95.5% 84.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 85.3% 93.9% 80.5%
Average Seed 7.5 6.5 8.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 45.3% 70.0% 30.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.4% 1.3% 6.3%
First Round86.4% 94.9% 81.5%
Second Round47.8% 57.5% 42.0%
Sweet Sixteen17.5% 23.5% 14.0%
Elite Eight6.7% 9.2% 5.3%
Final Four2.5% 3.5% 1.9%
Championship Game0.9% 1.4% 0.6%
National Champion0.3% 0.5% 0.2%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 37.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 13 - 4
Quad 28 - 311 - 6
Quad 36 - 117 - 7
Quad 46 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2022 200   South Dakota St. L 66-68 92%     0 - 1 -6.2 -10.4 +4.2
  Nov 12, 2022 63   Washington St. W 71-61 63%     1 - 1 +18.4 +1.1 +17.1
  Nov 17, 2022 110   Charlotte L 42-54 78%     1 - 2 -8.4 -24.8 +15.0
  Nov 18, 2022 220   Loyola Chicago W 70-48 90%     2 - 2 +19.5 +0.7 +20.4
  Nov 20, 2022 61   Colorado W 68-55 62%     3 - 2 +21.6 +4.6 +17.4
  Nov 26, 2022 99   Utah Valley W 87-69 82%     4 - 2 +20.0 +18.2 +2.2
  Nov 29, 2022 328   Cal St. Northridge W 55-46 98%     5 - 2 -3.2 -13.4 +11.6
  Dec 03, 2022 42   Texas A&M W 86-71 54%     6 - 2 +25.7 +20.5 +5.7
  Dec 10, 2022 79   @ Saint Louis W 57-52 59%     7 - 2 +14.3 -10.9 +25.4
  Dec 13, 2022 348   New Orleans W 91-50 98%     8 - 2 +26.0 +7.9 +17.1
  Dec 18, 2022 249   Oakland W 77-57 95%     9 - 2 +12.6 -1.2 +13.8
  Dec 22, 2022 93   @ Santa Clara L 58-73 64%     9 - 3 -6.9 -8.9 +1.2
  Dec 28, 2022 59   @ Nevada L 72-74 50%     9 - 4 0 - 1 +9.7 +6.1 +3.5
  Jan 03, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 67-64 86%     10 - 4 1 - 1 +3.0 -2.7 +5.9
  Jan 07, 2023 47   Utah St. W 82-59 67%     11 - 4 2 - 1 +30.3 +10.0 +20.5
  Jan 11, 2023 76   @ UNLV W 84-66 58%     12 - 4 3 - 1 +27.7 +18.9 +9.2
  Jan 14, 2023 139   @ Wyoming W 85-68 76%     13 - 4 4 - 1 +21.4 +9.6 +11.3
  Jan 17, 2023 59   Nevada W 77-62 70%     14 - 4 5 - 1 +21.2 +14.7 +8.0
  Jan 20, 2023 54   @ New Mexico L 79-81 OT 48%     14 - 5 5 - 2 +10.3 +1.2 +9.3
  Jan 24, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 63-53 90%     15 - 5 6 - 2 +7.3 -7.1 +14.6
  Jan 28, 2023 113   Colorado St. W 80-59 85%     16 - 5 7 - 2 +21.7 +16.1 +8.4
  Jan 31, 2023 168   @ Air Force W 59-52 80%     17 - 5 8 - 2 +9.8 -0.6 +11.8
  Feb 03, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. L 64-67 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 139   Wyoming W 73-60 89%    
  Feb 15, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 19, 2023 76   UNLV W 71-63 77%    
  Feb 22, 2023 54   New Mexico W 74-69 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. W 66-60 71%    
  Feb 28, 2023 33   San Diego St. W 67-65 59%    
  Mar 04, 2023 47   @ Utah St. L 70-71 45%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 8.0 20.3 13.4 3.3 45.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 4.9 14.8 4.6 24.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.1 9.2 4.7 0.1 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.1 4.1 0.2 9.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.3 0.4 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.5 2.3 8.7 19.0 27.8 25.1 13.4 3.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 3.3    3.3
15-3 100.0% 13.4    12.0 1.3 0.0
14-4 81.1% 20.3    9.5 8.9 1.8 0.1
13-5 28.7% 8.0    1.0 3.0 3.0 0.9 0.1
12-6 2.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 45.3% 45.3 25.8 13.3 4.9 1.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 3.3% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 3.2 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 0.0 100.0%
15-3 13.4% 99.5% 28.7% 70.8% 5.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.6 3.7 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.3%
14-4 25.1% 97.8% 24.8% 73.0% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 7.2 8.3 4.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.6 97.0%
13-5 27.8% 91.8% 21.6% 70.3% 8.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 5.2 8.3 6.7 3.0 0.4 0.0 2.3 89.6%
12-6 19.0% 81.1% 19.3% 61.8% 9.2 0.1 0.6 3.0 5.1 5.3 1.4 0.0 3.6 76.6%
11-7 8.7% 64.2% 16.7% 47.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.7 1.6 0.0 3.1 57.1%
10-8 2.3% 41.1% 14.0% 27.1% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.4 31.5%
9-9 0.5% 23.1% 11.8% 11.3% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4 12.9%
8-10 0.0% 0.0 0.0
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 88.6% 22.5% 66.1% 7.5 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.2 7.5 12.7 15.3 16.0 14.2 11.6 4.1 0.1 11.4 85.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.3% 100.0% 3.2 4.2 18.6 40.7 29.2 6.7 0.6