Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.7 #51
Expected Predictive Rating +13.2 #43
Pace 65.8 #278
Improvement -0.5 #214

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #101 B- A C+ C+ B-
Defense #18 A- B- A+ C- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.15 #199 +1.1 #137
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #235 0.62 #318 -2.2 #281
Three Pointers 42% #173 1.18 #23 +3.8 #70
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #107 +2.7 #106
Freethrows 22.1 #15 74% #133 16.4 #17
Second Chance 33.9% #88 1.02 #205 0.35 #125
Turnovers 15.9% #130
Total Offense +3.0 #101

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #289 1.08 #85 +3.8 #62
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #11 0.82 #269 -4.6 #361
Three Pointers 36% #310 0.81 #19 +6.4 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #43 +5.6 #44
Freethrows 16.4 #144 69% #57 11.2 #100
Second Chance 18.4% #1 0.90 #46 0.17 #3
Turnovers 16.2% #211
Total Defense +7.8 #18

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.1% #113 -3% #18
Shot Type Make % Effect 4% #119 -8.2% #56
Possession Length 17.4 #197 17.7 #258
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #209 0.19 #216
Improvement -1.7 #296 +1.2 #105

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.3% 4.4% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.0% 56.4% 35.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.5% 43.7% 24.1%
Average Seed 9.6 9.2 10.0
.500 or above 98.9% 99.9% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 92.9% 97.7% 89.7%
Conference Champion 17.4% 28.1% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.3% 11.6% 11.1%
First Round38.0% 50.3% 29.9%
Second Round16.3% 22.8% 12.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 5.1% 2.4%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.5% 0.5%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 43 - 5
Quad 25 - 38 - 8
Quad 39 - 117 - 10
Quad 44 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 86 Utah Valley W 101-77 75%     11.6   1 - 0 +27.7 +25.0 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 11 227 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 94%     8.7   2 - 0 +13.2 +3.6 +8.0
  Sat, Nov 15 158 Montana St. W 62-58 89%     2.3   3 - 0 +1.0 -5.5 +7.0
  Tue, Nov 18 89 Wichita St. W 62-59 76%     3.6   4 - 0 +6.3 -3.5 +10.0
  Mon, Nov 24 40 USC L 67-70 42%     -2.1   4 - 1 +9.9 -0.1 +10.0
  Tue, Nov 25 25 North Carolina St. L 70-81 33%     -4.6   4 - 2 +4.3 +3.9 +0.4
  Sat, Dec 6 50 @Butler W 77-68 38%     1.7   5 - 2 +22.8 +13.0 +10.3
  Wed, Dec 10 118 Duquesne W 86-64 84%     12.4   6 - 2 +22.1 +11.9 +10.0
  Sun, Dec 14 42 St. Mary's W 68-67 44%     5.6   7 - 2 +13.4 +3.1 +10.3
  Sat, Dec 20 79 @Nevada L 66-81 51%     -10.2   7 - 3 0 - 1 -4.6 +5.2 -11.7
  Tue, Dec 30 71 New Mexico W 62-53 71%     -0.3   8 - 3 1 - 1 +14.0 -6.7 +20.7
  Sat, Jan 3 53 @San Diego St. L 67-70 40%    
  Wed, Jan 7 88 Grand Canyon W 72-65 75%    
  Sat, Jan 10 37 Utah St. W 71-70 51%    
  Tue, Jan 13 132 @UNLV W 77-71 70%    
  Fri, Jan 16 100 Colorado St. W 73-65 78%    
  Tue, Jan 20 104 @Wyoming W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 324 Air Force W 76-52 98%    
  Tue, Jan 27 198 @San Jose St. W 74-64 82%    
  Fri, Jan 30 88 @Grand Canyon W 69-68 55%    
  Tue, Feb 3 79 Nevada W 71-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 7 71 @New Mexico L 70-71 49%    
  Fri, Feb 13 132 UNLV W 80-68 85%    
  Wed, Feb 18 37 @Utah St. L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 198 San Jose St. W 77-61 92%    
  Tue, Feb 24 104 Wyoming W 75-66 78%    
  Sat, Feb 28 183 @Fresno St. W 75-66 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 53 San Diego St. W 70-67 61%    
  Sat, Mar 7 100 @Colorado St. W 70-68 58%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.9 5.5 4.6 1.9 0.5 17.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.8 6.3 7.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 20.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.8 6.9 7.0 2.0 0.1 17.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 5.7 5.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 3.7 5.3 1.2 0.1 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.1 1.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.6 2.5 0.9 0.1 5.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.0 3.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 1.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.0 3.8 6.8 9.9 14.2 15.7 15.9 13.8 9.1 5.3 1.9 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
18-2 99.5% 1.9    1.8 0.1
17-3 87.1% 4.6    3.6 0.9 0.1
16-4 60.4% 5.5    3.0 2.1 0.4
15-5 28.5% 3.9    1.2 1.7 1.0 0.1
14-6 6.4% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.4% 17.4 10.1 5.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.5% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.9% 95.8% 41.9% 53.9% 6.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 92.8%
17-3 5.3% 93.0% 36.2% 56.7% 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.4 89.0%
16-4 9.1% 84.0% 33.2% 50.8% 9.1 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 0.7 1.5 76.1%
15-5 13.8% 70.2% 25.5% 44.7% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 4.0 2.3 0.0 4.1 60.0%
14-6 15.9% 53.1% 19.7% 33.3% 10.3 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.1 4.1 0.1 7.5 41.5%
13-7 15.7% 37.2% 16.0% 21.2% 10.6 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 0.1 9.9 25.2%
12-8 14.2% 23.3% 12.9% 10.4% 10.8 0.1 0.7 2.4 0.1 10.9 11.9%
11-9 9.9% 12.1% 7.2% 4.9% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 8.7 5.2%
10-10 6.8% 7.8% 6.4% 1.5% 11.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 6.2 1.6%
9-11 3.8% 3.6% 3.6% 11.3 0.1 0.0 3.7
8-12 2.0% 3.0% 3.0% 12.0 0.1 2.0
7-13 0.9% 2.3% 2.3% 12.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.0% 18.3% 25.7% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.3 4.2 7.5 12.6 14.6 0.5 56.0 31.5%