Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +9.1 61
Results Rating +9.6 62
Consistency 0.18 310
Pace 64.9 276
Improvement -2.4 269

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 66 B- B- B- A- B-
Defense B- 75 C+ A- D+ B+ B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 106 C+ 60% 111 +2.6 89
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 283 C- 36% 250 -2.3 289
Three Pointers 43% 134 B 37% 39 +3.4 70
Shot Selection/Accuracy B- +0.9 71 B- +2.6 92
1st FG Attempt B- 1.09 76
Second Chance B- 34.2% 74 C 1.02 186 B- 0.35 91
Opponents' Steals B+ 7.6% 27
Other Turnovers C- 7.8% 252
Turnovers B- 15.4% 98
Freethrows B 0.34 55 A- 79% 9 A- 0.27 17
Total Offense B +5.3 66

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 47% 217 B- 9.0% 78
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D- 14% 335 F 9.6% 353
Three Pointers C 83% 215 B- 0.6% 99
Total C 55% 187 C 5.5% 175


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 C+ 57% 150 -2.9 82
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% 31 D+ 41% 297 +3.2 356
Three Pointers 39% 240 C+ 33% 122 -1.7 119
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ -1.1 32 C -0.2 170
1st FG Attempt C+ 0.99 132
Second Chance A+ 21.3% 3 D+ 1.09 271 A- 0.23 21
Turnovers from Steals D 7.7% 311
Other Turnovers C+ 7.8% 104
Turnovers D+ 15.5% 252
Freethrows B 0.26 42 B+ 69% 39 B+ 0.18 39
Total Defense B- +3.8 75

Assists Blocks
Close Shots A 34% 3 D+ 8.6% 269
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B 18% 48 D 2.3% 320
Three Pointers B- 81% 95 B- 1.4% 78
Total A 44% 9 D 4.1% 304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.6 209 18.4 318
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 235 0.15 105
Consistency 0.14 285 0.14 314
Improvement +2.4 74 -4.9 352

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Longshot
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 74 63 53
Results Rating Rank 84 63 50
Conference Record 10 - 10 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 8 6 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None 11
NCAA Tourney Finish None None 1st Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16% 22% 10%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 11% 16% 6%
Average Seed 10.8 10.7 10.9
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four9% 12% 5%
First Round11% 15% 7%
Second Round3% 4% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 1% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 51.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 6
Quad 26 - 48 - 10
Quad 38 - 216 - 12
Quad 43 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 97 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 74% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +22 A+ A+ A+ B- +3 B C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 146 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 85% +9  84% 2 - 0 A +18 C+ +2 B- A+ F A+ +14 C A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 147 Montana St. W 62 - 58 85% +2  68% 3 - 0 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ F B+ A +10 B A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 92 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 72% +4  73% 4 - 0 B- +6 D -5 F+ B C+ A+ +11 A B B
 Mon, Nov 24 60 USC L 67 - 70 50% -2  19% 4 - 1 B- +6 C- -2 C- B- F+ A- +8 C A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 33 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 31% -5  13% 4 - 2 C+ +3 C- -1 B- F+ D+ B +4 D- A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 79 @Butler W 77 - 68 44% +2  64% 5 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 D B- A+ A+ +12 A B- D
 Wed, Dec 10 119 Duquesne W 86 - 64 81% +12  98% 6 - 2 A +22 A- +10 B A- A+ A+ +12 A+ B D+
 Sun, Dec 14 31 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 30% +6  94% 7 - 2 A- +16 C+ +2 A C F A+ +13 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Nevada L 66 - 81 44% -10  2% 7 - 3 0 - 1 C- -4 B- +4 A- D F+ F+ -10 F A D
 Tue, Dec 30 51 New Mexico W 62 - 53 54% -0  42% 8 - 3 1 - 1 A- +17 F+ -9 D+ F A+ A+ +26 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 45 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 29% -6  20% 8 - 4 1 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A D+ A- C -0 D+ C+ D+
 Wed, Jan 7 62 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 62% -7  14% 8 - 5 1 - 3 D -11 F+ -9 D- F D- C- -2 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 32 Utah St. L 68 - 93 42% -19  0% 8 - 6 1 - 4 D- -14 C +1 D- A B+ F -16 C- F D
 Tue, Jan 13 116 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 62% -0  39% 8 - 7 1 - 5 C+ +2 C- -0 B F C- B- +3 C+ C+ C
 Fri, Jan 16 93 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 72% +6  95% 9 - 7 2 - 5 B +9 A +11 B+ A+ D C- -2 F+ A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 102 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 57% +10  72% 10 - 7 3 - 5 A+ +23 A+ +15 A+ D- A A +10 C+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 344 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  93% 11 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +27 A A+ A+ B +5 C A- D+
 Tue, Jan 27 221 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 82% +9  85% 12 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +30 A+ +15 A A+ B+ A+ +17 A B+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 62 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 86 39% -6  14% 12 - 8 5 - 6 D+ -5 B +7 C A- B- F -13 F A F+
 Tue, Feb 3 76 Nevada W 91 - 87 OT 67% +8  91% 13 - 8 6 - 6 B +9 A +12 A- A+ B+ D+ -4 D+ C- D-
 Sat, Feb 7 51 @New Mexico W 91 - 90 31% +1  54% 14 - 8 7 - 6 A- +15 A+ +27 A+ B- B+ F -11 F A F
 Fri, Feb 13 116 UNLV L 83 - 86 OT 80% +9  90% 14 - 9 7 - 7 C- -3 B +6 A D- C+ F+ -9 C F F
 Wed, Feb 18 32 @Utah St. L 56 - 75 22% -9  18% 14 - 10 7 - 8 C- -2 D+ -4 C- F B- C -1 C- C+ D-
 Sat, Feb 21 221 San Jose St. W 84 - 69 92% +9  95% 15 - 10 8 - 8 B +8 B+ +8 A D+ A+ C+ +1 A- D F
 Tue, Feb 24 102 Wyoming W 72 - 62 77% +2  58% 16 - 10 9 - 8 B +11 B- +4 D+ A+ D+ A +9 B+ A D
 Sat, Feb 28 133 @Fresno St. W 69 - 53 66% +7  90% 17 - 10 10 - 8 A +21 B+ +9 B C- A- A+ +14 A A+ F
 Tue, Mar 3 45 San Diego St. W 72 - 71 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 93 @Colorado St. L 71 - 72 50%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 9 +9 B +5 A B- B- B- +4 B A- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ C- B B- 41% 28% 43% B- B- B- C B- B- B A- A- B- C+ D+ C+ C 34% 27% 39% B+ C+ A+ D+ A- D+ B B+ B+
1.16 60% 36% 37% +3 +1 1.09 34% 1.0 .35 15% .34 79% .27 1.03 57% 41% 33% 0 -1 0.99 21% 1.1 .23 16% .26 69% .24
Nov
8		 Utah Valley A+ A+ F A- A+ 51% 14% 35% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ B- F+ F A+ B- 45% 22% 33% A- B A+ F C+ B- F F F
1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41 1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32
Nov
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley C+ F+ F A+ C+ 42% 19% 40% B- B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ D- A+ A+ F+ C- C- D+ 33% 39% 29% A+ C A+ F A+ A- F A+ C
1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34 0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17
Nov
15		 Montana St. D- D F D F+ 27% 16% 58% D+ F+ F D F B+ A+ A+ A+ A B- B- D C+ 25% 36% 40% A B B A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36 0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11
Nov
18		 Wichita St. D F F A F 44% 22% 33% A- F+ C+ B+ B C+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ F+ A- A 40% 29% 31% B A B- B B B D C D+
0.97 40% 10% 40% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.1 .32 16% .43 65% .28 0.92 33% 46% 29% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.9 .33 17% .36 68% .25
Nov
24		 USC C- D A+ F D 50% 10% 40% A C- B C+ B- F+ F A+ D A- A+ D+ F C- 30% 28% 42% A- C A+ A A+ B- A+ A A+
0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18 1.01 40% 43% 48% +4 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19
Nov
25		 North Carolina St. C- F A+ B B 24% 9% 67% C B- B+ F F+ D+ A+ D A+ B C- F F F+ 39% 20% 41% B D- A A+ A+ B F+ D+ F+
1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 +1 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38 1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30
Dec
6		 Butler B+ C- F F F+ 54% 23% 23% B D A+ F B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C A A+ F B- D A A+ A+
1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35 1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17
Dec
10		 Duquesne A- F F A+ A- 35% 31% 35% D B D+ A+ A- A+ D+ A+ B A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 45% B+ A+ A+ F B D+ B A+ A
1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29 0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18
Dec
14		 St. Mary's C+ B- A+ C+ A+ 36% 26% 38% C- A D A+ C F B- A+ B+ A+ A B- A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% B A+ A+ A A+ D+ F D+ F
0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22 0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34
Dec
20		 Nevada B- B+ C+ B- A- 45% 13% 43% A- A- A F D F+ A+ F A+ F+ D- F F F 40% 40% 20% A F A+ F+ A D F D F
1.06 61% 40% 35% +2 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38 1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49
Dec
30		 New Mexico F+ B F F D- 33% 15% 52% B D+ D F F A+ A+ F A A+ A+ C A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% A+ A+ A+ B A+ D- B+ A+ A
0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26 0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
3		 San Diego St. A A B- C A 30% 15% 55% B- A B- F D+ A- A A+ A+ C B+ F F D+ 44% 24% 32% D- D+ A+ F C+ D+ F+ A+ C-
1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34 1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26
Jan
7		 Grand Canyon F+ C F+ F D 30% 30% 40% D D- D F F D- A+ A A+ C- C- F B- D- 52% 13% 35% F F+ C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C+ A+
0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37 1.11 61% 71% 32% +4 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16
Jan
10		 Utah St. C F A+ F+ F+ 37% 14% 49% B+ D- A A- A B+ A+ B A+ F D+ D+ D C- 43% 11% 46% C C- F+ F F D D D- D-
1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36 1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28
Jan
13		 UNLV C- B+ A+ F B 56% 22% 22% B B D- F F C- A- B A B- D D+ D+ D+ 31% 33% 35% A+ C+ D B C+ C D- D+ D-
1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34 1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30
Jan
16		 Colorado St. A F+ A+ B B+ 27% 11% 61% B B+ A- A A+ D A+ A A+ C- D A+ F F 27% 20% 52% A- F+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- F D+
1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41 1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28
Jan
20		 Wyoming A+ B A+ A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% A- A+ C- F D- A F A+ D A B+ F A C+ 41% 18% 41% B C+ A+ F+ A- C+ C- C- D+
1.25 64% 50% 41% +8 +2 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 12% .23 100% .23 1.00 50% 75% 28% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.1 .27 17% .33 78% .26
Jan
24		 Air Force A+ B D- A+ A 43% 17% 40% B A A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F D C- 34% 23% 43% A- C A+ F+ A- D+ A A A
1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31 0.87 40% 50% 37% -2 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12
Jan
27		 San Jose St. A+ B+ A+ F B+ 74% 2% 24% A+ A A A A+ B+ A+ D A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A 24% 33% 43% B A A+ F B+ B D A+ B
1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32 0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18
Jan
30		 Grand Canyon B D+ F D+ D 49% 7% 44% A+ C B A A- B- A+ B+ A+ F F+ B+ F F 48% 22% 30% C F A+ F A F+ F+ F+ F
1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34 1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Nevada A A+ C+ D A- 42% 10% 48% A- A- B- A+ A+ B+ A+ A- A+ D+ D- D C- D- 33% 33% 33% A- D+ A+ F C- D- A A A+
1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43 1.17 63% 42% 37% +4 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20
Feb
7		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% B- A+ B C+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 48% 10% 42% D F D+ A+ A F D+ B- C-
1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46 1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24
Feb
13		 UNLV B B- F A+ A 44% 19% 38% B- A D+ F D- C+ B- A+ A+ F+ B+ D- F D 25% 34% 41% A+ C B- F F F A+ F A+
1.19 62% 22% 50% +8 +1 1.19 27% 0.9 .23 17% .40 91% .36 1.24 50% 47% 43% +7 -3 1.11 31% 1.5 .44 12% .21 77% .16
Feb
18		 Utah St. D+ F A- C D+ 39% 18% 43% B- C- A- F F B- F B+ F C D- C- D- D+ 40% 17% 43% B+ C- A+ F C+ D- A C+ A-
0.93 42% 44% 33% -5 0 0.92 38% 0.4 .15 20% .19 78% .15 1.25 68% 38% 40% +8 +1 1.19 24% 1.7 .40 12% .24 69% .17
Feb
21		 San Jose St. B+ B- A+ A A 48% 8% 44% A- A F+ A- D+ A+ C A+ B C+ D+ D- A+ A- 27% 36% 38% B+ A- A- F D F A+ F A+
1.28 67% 75% 41% +12 +2 1.30 26% 1.3 .35 12% .29 88% .26 1.05 60% 45% 19% -5 -3 0.86 27% 1.5 .41 9% .12 100% .12
Feb
24		 Wyoming B- A+ F F C- 34% 26% 40% F+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ C- A+ A A F A+ A B 33% 16% 51% B+ B+ A+ F+ A D A+ C- A+
1.13 81% 25% 21% -3 -1 0.94 38% 1.7 .65 19% .37 89% .33 0.97 69% 25% 28% -3 0 0.96 22% 1.1 .25 14% .16 78% .13
Feb
28		 Fresno St. B+ B A- B- A- 18% 22% 59% D- B A+ F C- A- F B- F A+ F F+ A+ B 20% 45% 35% A+ A A+ A+ A+ F A+ A A+
1.15 67% 45% 34% +4 -2 1.06 43% 0.6 .28 15% .16 75% .12 0.88 70% 45% 18% -3 -4 0.88 21% 0.6 .12 13% .17 67% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 2.9 2.9 4th
5th 0.6 13.1 13.7 5th
6th 41.1 10.6 51.7 6th
7th 17.0 6.6 23.6 7th
8th 8.0 0.2 8.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 24.9 48.4 26.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 26.6% 28.5% 8.6% 19.9% 10.6 0.1 0.4 2.0 4.7 0.3 19.0 21.8%
11-9 48.4% 14.5% 5.7% 8.8% 10.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.3 0.5 0.0 41.4 9.3%
10-10 24.9% 5.9% 3.9% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.1 23.5 2.0%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 16.1% 6.0% 10.0% 10.8 83.9 10.7%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 10.1 4.6 16.0 46.3 32.5 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.2% 42.7% 10.7 0.3 0.6 14.0 26.5 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 5.6% 29.5% 10.8 0.4 6.0 22.1 0.9
Lose Out 8.3% 0.1% 11.0 0.1