Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -12.2 #350
Expected Predictive Rating -12.0 #342
Pace 63.9 #303
Improvement -3.9 #331

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #356 D+ D F+ D+ B-
Defense #270 D+ C- C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #99 1.12 #217 +1.0 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.59 #355 -3.0 #317
Three Pointers 42% #156 0.93 #300 -1.3 #233
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #278 -3.2 #277
Freethrows 0.30 #204 64% #360 0.19 #289
Second Chance 23.0% #347 1.09 #89 0.25 #306
Turnovers 21.1% #353
Total Offense -9.2 #356

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #223 1.25 #297 -0.9 #204
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #165 0.80 #257 -0.6 #231
Three Pointers 42% #150 1.04 #222 -1.0 #230
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #265 -2.4 #263
Freethrows 0.30 #184 70% #86 0.21 #160
Second Chance 31.4% #220 1.06 #232 0.33 #234
Turnovers 15.7% #254
Total Defense -3.0 #270

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #75 -0.3% #143
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.8% #311 5.2% #277
Possession Length 19.7 #359 15.6 #4
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #346 0.18 #214
Improvement -2.4 #311 -1.4 #268

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 95.8% 81.5% 96.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 2.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 60 - 6
Quad 20 - 90 - 15
Quad 30 - 90 - 24
Quad 43 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 74 @Belmont L 63 - 79 3% -4  0 - 1 -5 -4 A+ C- F -2 B A+ F
 Sat, Nov 8 170 Austin Peay L 54 - 74 21% -10  0 - 2 -24 -20 D- D+ F -3 F+ B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 204 LIU Brooklyn L 72 - 76 26% -0  0 - 3 -10 -1 D+ C+ C -8 C- D+ C
 Sat, Nov 15 92 Miami (OH) L 61 - 76 9% -10  0 - 4 -12 -10 F D+ C+ -3 D+ B C
 Wed, Nov 19 318 Alabama St. W 66 - 64 51% -2  1 - 4 -11 -9 C- A F -1 B- A- D+
 Fri, Nov 21 246 SIU Edwardsville W 77 - 63 34% +8  2 - 4 +6 +6 D A B +1 C+ C C
 Sun, Nov 23 338 IU Indianapolis W 98 - 85 58% +2  3 - 4 -1 +5 A D- C+ -8 C D- C
 Wed, Nov 26 180 Northern Colorado L 53 - 71 23% -5  3 - 5 -22 -16 F+ C- F+ -9 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 285 South Dakota L 63 - 80 31% -11  3 - 6 -24 -14 F F C -10 D- C- B
 Wed, Dec 3 126 Pacific L 65 - 80 14% -9  3 - 7 -16 +2 C+ B D- -20 C- F F
 Sun, Dec 7 174 @Navy L 56 - 61 10% +0  3 - 8 -3 -7 F+ D C +4 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 44 @San Diego St. L 58 - 81 1% -8  3 - 9 0 - 1 -8 +1 C+ B+ D+ -11 D F C
 Tue, Dec 30 108 Wyoming L 56 - 68 12% -5  3 - 10 0 - 2 -11 -16 C F F +4 A F+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 130 @UNLV L 39 - 67 7% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -23 -30 F F D+ +5 A+ F C
 Tue, Jan 6 32 Utah St. L 62 - 99 2% -20  3 - 12 0 - 4 -26 -2 C C+ B -26 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 49 New Mexico L 49 - 91 4% -21  3 - 13 0 - 5 -34 -18 C+ F F -17 D B- D+
 Tue, Jan 13 238 @San Jose St. L 62 - 70 16% -4  3 - 14 0 - 6 -10 -5 D D F -6 D+ C- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 70 Nevada L 66 - 81 6% -10  3 - 15 0 - 7 -10 -4 A F D- -6 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 102 @Colorado St. L 52 - 81 4% -17  3 - 16 0 - 8 -21 -16 F F F -7 C- A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 59 @Boise St. L 54 - 96 2% -19  3 - 17 0 - 9 -30 -6 C D+ D -29 F F F
 Sat, Jan 31 145 Fresno St. L 62 - 79 17% -8  3 - 18 0 - 10 -19 -11 D+ D- F+ -8 D B+ F
 Tue, Feb 3 62 @Grand Canyon L 57 - 81 2% -21  3 - 19 0 - 11 -12 -6 C- B F -7 F D+ D
 Sat, Feb 7 44 San Diego St. L 56 - 77 2%
 Tue, Feb 10 102 Colorado St. L 59 - 73 10%
 Sat, Feb 14 145 @Fresno St. L 60 - 76 6%
 Tue, Feb 17 49 @New Mexico L 58 - 84 1%
 Sat, Feb 21 130 UNLV L 67 - 78 15%
 Tue, Feb 24 238 San Jose St. L 65 - 70 33%
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @Wyoming L 58 - 77 4%
 Tue, Mar 3 62 Grand Canyon L 57 - 75 4%
 Sat, Mar 7 70 @Nevada L 56 - 79 2%
Totals 4 - 27 1 - 19 -12 -9 D+ D F+ -3 D+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 4.5 6.5 2.3 0.4 0.0 13.6 11th
12th 43.8 34.4 7.5 0.7 0.0 86.4 12th
Total 43.8 38.9 14.0 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 2.9% 2.9
2-18 14.0% 14.0
1-19 38.9% 38.9
0-20 43.8% 43.8
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 42.9%