Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.0#287
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#338
Pace60.6#352
Improvement-0.1#183

Offense
Total Offense-4.3#295
First Shot-2.4#243
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#295
Layup/Dunks+0.4#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#269
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#161
Freethrows-1.7#288
Improvement-1.4#269

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#254
First Shot-2.8#268
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#170
Layups/Dunks-0.5#188
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#186
Freethrows-0.2#198
Improvement+1.4#112
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 71.9% 47.6% 72.9%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Away) - 4.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 21 - 81 - 13
Quad 31 - 92 - 22
Quad 43 - 55 - 27


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 156   North Alabama L 57-73 34%     0 - 1 -18.8 -11.9 -8.7
  Nov 07, 2024 168   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 36%     1 - 1 +2.8 +3.4 -0.1
  Nov 11, 2024 312   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 68%     1 - 2 -20.7 -11.6 -10.8
  Nov 15, 2024 136   Belmont L 71-79 30%     1 - 3 -9.5 +1.6 -11.9
  Nov 21, 2024 123   @ California L 69-78 13%     1 - 4 -3.6 -0.2 -3.9
  Nov 24, 2024 359   Mercyhurst W 82-48 85%     2 - 4 +15.9 +17.3 +5.4
  Nov 27, 2024 346   Sacramento St. L 61-63 77%     2 - 5 -16.6 -10.5 -6.3
  Nov 30, 2024 183   @ Wright St. L 57-70 20%     2 - 6 -11.1 -10.0 -2.6
  Dec 02, 2024 166   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 18%     2 - 7 -10.2 -4.3 -7.6
  Dec 07, 2024 326   Stony Brook W 69-61 61%     3 - 7 -1.8 -9.6 +7.9
  Dec 16, 2024 149   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 16%     3 - 8 -1.2 +0.8 -1.9
  Dec 21, 2024 56   @ Boise St. L 59-77 5%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -5.6 -4.2 -2.9
  Dec 31, 2024 109   UNLV L 58-77 24%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -18.5 -15.4 -3.2
  Jan 04, 2025 157   Wyoming L 65-70 34%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -7.8 +3.0 -11.7
  Jan 08, 2025 44   @ San Diego St. L 38-67 3%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -14.5 -20.3 +3.5
  Jan 11, 2025 167   San Jose St. L 62-69 36%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -10.2 -6.7 -4.4
  Jan 14, 2025 62   @ Nevada L 54-73 4%    
  Jan 17, 2025 263   @ Fresno St. L 68-72 34%    
  Jan 22, 2025 44   San Diego St. L 54-70 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 49   Utah St. L 63-78 8%    
  Jan 28, 2025 79   @ Colorado St. L 56-73 5%    
  Feb 01, 2025 167   @ San Jose St. L 62-72 18%    
  Feb 04, 2025 62   Nevada L 57-70 12%    
  Feb 08, 2025 54   New Mexico L 64-78 9%    
  Feb 11, 2025 109   @ UNLV L 59-72 11%    
  Feb 18, 2025 157   @ Wyoming L 59-69 18%    
  Feb 22, 2025 263   Fresno St. W 71-69 56%    
  Feb 25, 2025 79   Colorado St. L 59-70 16%    
  Mar 01, 2025 54   @ New Mexico L 61-81 3%    
  Mar 04, 2025 56   Boise St. L 61-74 11%    
  Mar 08, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 60-81 3%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 2 - 18




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.2 6.9 9th
10th 1.5 10.9 13.8 7.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 35.2 10th
11th 10.6 23.4 16.9 4.9 0.6 0.0 56.5 11th
Total 10.6 25.0 27.9 19.6 10.5 4.2 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 1.6% 1.6
5-15 4.2% 4.2
4-16 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 10.5
3-17 19.6% 19.6
2-18 27.9% 27.9
1-19 25.0% 25.0
0-20 10.6% 10.6
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 9.8%