Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#219
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#252
Pace60.3#351
Improvement+0.3#26

Offense
Total Offense-3.9#295
First Shot-3.8#297
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#186
Layup/Dunks-2.2#259
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#74
Freethrows-1.5#275
Improvement+0.2#56

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#157
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#256
Layups/Dunks+1.9#106
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#335
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#66
Freethrows-1.0#243
Improvement+0.1#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.6
.500 or above 7.4% 14.7% 4.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.6% 4.2% 1.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 52.0% 45.2% 55.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland St. (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 51 - 10
Quad 33 - 64 - 16
Quad 48 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 271   @ Bowling Green L 58-62 48%     0 - 1 -6.5 -15.3 +8.7
  Nov 11, 2022 176   Delaware W 75-71 50%     1 - 1 +0.8 +1.6 -0.7
  Nov 14, 2022 261   Texas A&M - Commerce L 69-73 OT 68%     1 - 2 -12.0 -9.7 -2.1
  Nov 17, 2022 110   Portland L 51-64 34%     1 - 3 -11.9 -19.9 +6.7
  Nov 21, 2022 349   South Carolina Upstate W 83-56 88%     2 - 3 +10.8 +6.3 +6.7
  Nov 23, 2022 363   Mississippi Valley W 64-51 95%     3 - 3 -8.8 +5.9 -9.7
  Nov 27, 2022 224   Montana W 59-56 62%     4 - 3 -3.4 -8.1 +5.1
  Nov 30, 2022 339   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 81-53 87%     5 - 3 +12.9 +5.6 +8.2
  Dec 03, 2022 192   @ Portland St. L 66-71 32%    
  Dec 06, 2022 230   South Dakota W 66-63 63%    
  Dec 09, 2022 272   Arkansas St. W 61-56 69%    
  Dec 18, 2022 135   Tarleton St. L 62-65 40%    
  Dec 20, 2022 254   @ Northern Colorado L 69-71 44%    
  Dec 28, 2022 25   @ San Diego St. L 53-73 3%    
  Dec 31, 2022 69   Nevada L 61-69 23%    
  Jan 03, 2023 34   Utah St. L 63-74 16%    
  Jan 10, 2023 72   @ Colorado St. L 55-69 10%    
  Jan 14, 2023 154   @ Fresno St. L 53-60 26%    
  Jan 17, 2023 146   Wyoming L 61-63 45%    
  Jan 21, 2023 25   San Diego St. L 56-70 11%    
  Jan 24, 2023 185   @ San Jose St. L 59-64 31%    
  Jan 27, 2023 57   @ New Mexico L 61-76 8%    
  Jan 31, 2023 61   Boise St. L 53-62 22%    
  Feb 03, 2023 69   @ Nevada L 58-72 10%    
  Feb 07, 2023 72   Colorado St. L 58-66 24%    
  Feb 10, 2023 57   New Mexico L 64-73 20%    
  Feb 14, 2023 34   @ Utah St. L 60-77 7%    
  Feb 18, 2023 146   @ Wyoming L 58-66 26%    
  Feb 21, 2023 154   Fresno St. L 56-57 46%    
  Feb 24, 2023 78   @ UNLV L 55-68 12%    
  Mar 04, 2023 185   San Jose St. W 62-61 52%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 4 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 2.6 0.5 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.6 7.0 4.0 0.8 0.0 17.4 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 7.9 9.4 4.8 0.8 0.1 25.8 10th
11th 2.9 8.8 12.5 9.7 3.8 0.6 0.0 38.3 11th
Total 2.9 8.9 15.3 18.5 18.2 14.6 9.8 5.8 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 22.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.1
11-7 0.2% 3.4% 3.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 0.7% 1.1% 1.1% 14.0 0.0 0.7
9-9 1.6% 0.8% 0.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 1.6
8-10 3.3% 0.8% 0.8% 14.7 0.0 0.0 3.3
7-11 5.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 5.7
6-12 9.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.7
5-13 14.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
4-14 18.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.2
3-15 18.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 18.4
2-16 15.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.3
1-17 8.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.9
0-18 2.9% 2.9
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%