New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

Predictive Rating +10.9 52
Results Rating +11.5 50
Consistency 0.16 242
Pace 74.0 43
Improvement +0.5 170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 70 B C- B C+ B+
Defense B+ 38 B B B B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 48 C 58% 166 +3.2 74
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% 319 B- 41% 80 -2.6 303
Three Pointers 44% 129 A- 39% 18 +4.5 43
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.4 29 B +3.4 77
1st FG Attempt B 1.12 53
Second Chance C 30.6% 174 C- 0.98 254 C- 0.30 203
Opponents' Steals B 8.2% 63
Other Turnovers C+ 6.8% 115
Turnovers B 14.9% 76
Freethrows C 0.31 180 B- 74% 121 C+ 0.23 153
Total Offense B +4.9 70

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots D+ 43% 270 B- 9.0% 73
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 315 C- 6.1% 256
Three Pointers B- 88% 92 C 1.0% 208
Total C 56% 168 C+ 5.1% 125

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 358 C+ 56% 133 -6.4 17
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 135 D- 43% 329 +1.4 298
Three Pointers 50% 8 A- 29% 13 +1.0 234
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.8 49 B -3.2 63
1st FG Attempt B 0.94 50
Second Chance B 26.7% 58 B- 0.97 86 B 0.26 54
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.9% 75
Other Turnovers B 8.4% 60
Turnovers B 19.3% 48
Freethrows B- 0.27 89 C 72% 194 B- 0.20 97
Total Defense B+ +6.0 38

Assists Blocks
Close Shots C+ 46% 130 B- 13.3% 83
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 24% 172 D+ 3.0% 299
Three Pointers B- 80% 79 D+ 0.5% 261
Total C+ 53% 137 D+ 4.7% 250

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.8 40 17.8 269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 88 0.15 104
Consistency 0.14 321 0.14 317
Improvement +0.6 157 -0.1 196

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status On The Bubble
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 60 50 42
Results Rating Rank 62 51 40
Conference Record 12 - 8 14 - 6 15 - 5
Conference Finish 5 3 1
NCAA Tourney Seed None 12 9
NCAA Tourney Finish None 1st Four 2nd Round

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50% 59% 40%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 41% 49% 31%
Average Seed 10.4 10.3 10.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 15% 26% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four22% 23% 21%
First Round38% 46% 28%
Second Round13% 16% 9%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 1%
Elite Eight0% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 56.6% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 6
Quad 27 - 29 - 8
Quad 35 - 114 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 309 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 97% +16  98% 1 - 0 B +10 F+ -10 F+ B D A+ +18 A B A+
 Sat, Nov 8 184 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 92% +12  90% 2 - 0 B+ +14 C- -2 B F C A+ +15 A C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 282 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 96% +5  74% 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +8 B C A+ C- -3 F+ B+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 177 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 80% -2  15% 3 - 1 D+ -6 D+ -3 D C+ F D+ -3 B F D
 Thu, Nov 20 13 Nebraska L 72 - 84 22% -11  0% 3 - 2 B- +7 C- -2 B C- C+ A +10 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 80 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 64% +2  67% 4 - 2 B +9 B- +5 B- B C B +4 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 314 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 97% -6  14% 5 - 2 D+ -6 A- +10 A+ D B+ F -17 F F A
 Sat, Dec 6 43 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 56% +11  85% 6 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +23 A+ A+ A A+ +13 A+ D+ A
 Wed, Dec 10 49 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 37% -1  35% 7 - 2 A- +17 A +11 A+ F D- B+ +6 A+ C B-
 Sun, Dec 14 257 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 95% +5  61% 8 - 2 B- +8 D+ -3 F C D- A+ +11 A- A C+
 Sat, Dec 20 221 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 94% +10  93% 9 - 2 1 - 0 A- +17 B+ +9 A C B+ A- +8 B A- A-
 Tue, Dec 30 68 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 47% +0  52% 9 - 3 1 - 1 C+ +3 F -18 F D A A+ +20 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 101 Wyoming W 78 - 58 80% +6  57% 10 - 3 2 - 1 A +22 A +14 B A+ B A +11 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 93 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 58% +7  92% 11 - 3 3 - 1 A +19 A- +11 A A+ C A +8 A- D B+
 Sat, Jan 10 350 @Air Force W 91 - 49 97% +21  90% 12 - 3 4 - 1 A+ +31 A +13 B D+ B- A+ +19 C A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 61 Grand Canyon W 87 - 64 68% +9  94% 13 - 3 5 - 1 A+ +29 A +14 A+ D+ B+ A+ +14 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 44 @San Diego St. L 79 - 83 34% -3  14% 13 - 4 5 - 2 B +11 B +6 B B- C B+ +6 C- A A-
 Wed, Jan 21 129 Fresno St. W 83 - 74 86% +11  93% 14 - 4 6 - 2 B +8 C- -0 D- A A+ A- +8 B C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 72 Nevada W 80 - 73 72% +0  49% 15 - 4 7 - 2 B+ +12 B +6 C- B+ A B+ +6 C A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 27 121 @UNLV W 89 - 61 69% +18  97% 16 - 4 8 - 2 A+ +34 B+ +8 A F+ A A+ +24 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 221 @San Jose St. W 90 - 80 85% +7  97% 17 - 4 9 - 2 B +10 A+ +21 A C+ A+ F -10 D+ F+ F
 Wed, Feb 4 33 Utah St. L 66 - 86 48% -8  3% 17 - 5 9 - 3 D -9 F+ -8 C- F C+ C+ +0 C+ B- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 68 Boise St. L 90 - 91 69% -1  37% 17 - 6 9 - 4 C+ +5 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F -15 F B- C+
 Wed, Feb 11 61 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 64 46% +8  86% 18 - 6 10 - 4 A +18 B +6 A+ F+ D A+ +12 A+ C C+
 Tue, Feb 17 350 Air Force W 98 - 61 99% +18  97% 19 - 6 11 - 4 A +20 A+ +15 A+ B C- B+ +5 B+ A F+
 Sat, Feb 21 129 @Fresno St. W 80 - 78 71% -8  17% 20 - 6 12 - 4 B- +7 A +12 A D A+ D -5 F+ C D+
 Tue, Feb 24 72 @Nevada L 60 - 67 50% -1  37% 20 - 7 12 - 5 C+ +4 F -11 C- F C- A+ +15 A- A+ A
 Sat, Feb 28 44 San Diego St. W 76 - 74 57%
 Wed, Mar 4 93 Colorado St. W 78 - 70 77%
 Sat, Mar 7 33 @Utah St. L 76 - 82 28%
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 6 +11 B +5 A+ B B+ B+ +6 A- B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C B- A- B 44% 25% 44% B+ B C C- C- B C B- C+ B+ C+ D- A- B 28% 22% 50% B B B B- B B B- C B-
1.16 58% 41% 39% +3 +1 1.12 31% 1.0 .30 15% .31 74% .23 1.00 56% 43% 29% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.0 .26 19% .27 72% .22
Nov
5		 East Texas A&M F+ F F A F 51% 16% 33% B- F+ C- A+ B D B+ F C A+ F C A+ A 25% 20% 55% B+ A D+ A+ B A+ B B- B
0.99 46% 13% 41% -7 +2 0.92 30% 1.4 .43 19% .37 61% .23 0.70 71% 36% 17% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .17 27% .20 64% .12
Nov
8		 Texas Arlington C- B A+ F C 45% 8% 47% A+ B C- F F C A A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% C A D- A- C+ A+ F C F
1.03 64% 50% 26% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 17% .45 81% .37 0.78 57% 50% 14% -14 0 0.76 40% 0.8 .31 32% .49 71% .35
Nov
11		 UC Riverside B+ A+ C F B- 51% 18% 32% B B D B+ C A+ F+ D- F+ C- A+ A F F 22% 24% 54% A F+ A+ F+ B+ B B+ F C
1.23 72% 40% 28% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 8% .28 65% .18 1.02 30% 27% 52% +6 -2 1.11 16% 1.0 .16 21% .25 92% .23
Nov
15		 New Mexico St. D+ C+ F+ F D- 31% 15% 54% B- D D+ A- C+ F D A- C- D+ F B A+ B 17% 25% 58% B B C+ F F D F D F
1.03 60% 29% 27% -7 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27 1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35
Nov
20		 Nebraska C- C A+ D- B- 20% 14% 66% A- B D A- C- C+ D D- D- A D C+ D C 26% 11% 63% B- C A+ B A+ A+ F A F
0.89 58% 63% 28% -2 0 0.97 20% 1.0 .20 20% .17 64% .11 1.04 71% 33% 38% +7 0 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 22% .40 68% .27
Nov
21		 Mississippi St. B- D F B C+ 38% 13% 48% A+ B- B+ C B C A+ B- A+ B D D B- C 25% 27% 47% A- C+ A+ B- A+ F A A+ A+
1.10 50% 29% 36% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 14% .40 76% .30 1.08 67% 44% 32% +2 -2 1.03 20% 1.0 .20 10% .20 54% .11
Nov
26		 Alabama St. A- C+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 7% 52% B+ A+ C F D B+ A+ D A+ F D+ C F F 24% 27% 49% A- F F F F A F+ F F
1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44 1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29
Dec
6		 Santa Clara A+ A+ F A- A+ 48% 10% 42% B+ A+ B A+ A+ A A A+ A+ A+ A F A+ A+ 22% 9% 69% C+ A+ D C D+ A B- C- B-
1.37 79% 20% 38% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.8 .62 17% .40 88% .35 0.99 50% 80% 21% -11 0 0.80 41% 1.1 .45 21% .21 75% .16
Dec
10		 Virginia Commonwealth A C- A+ A+ A+ 57% 9% 35% A+ A+ C+ F F D- A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ F A- A+ 39% 12% 49% C A+ F A- C B- F F F
1.16 54% 75% 50% +9 +3 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 20% .39 86% .34 1.12 37% 67% 29% -8 +1 0.88 41% 0.9 .39 17% .48 82% .40
Dec
14		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ F A+ F F 35% 4% 61% B+ F A+ F C D- A+ A+ A+ A+ B+ C- B+ B+ 12% 24% 63% A- A- A- A- A C+ C+ A B
1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43 0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16
Dec
20		 San Jose St. B+ A+ A+ C+ A 32% 10% 58% C+ A F A+ C B+ B- A B+ A- A A+ F+ B 21% 31% 48% B B B+ A- A- A- A+ D- A
1.29 81% 80% 34% +12 +1 1.28 16% 2.5 .40 15% .31 83% .26 0.95 45% 25% 40% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 19% .18 80% .15
Dec
30		 Boise St. F F C F F 32% 26% 42% C- F D+ F D A C F+ D+ A+ D+ A- A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% B- A+ A+ A+ A+ D D- A+ C+
0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16 0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26
Jan
3		 Wyoming A D- F A+ B 47% 14% 39% B- B A+ C- A+ B F B+ F A C+ B- A- A- 24% 22% 53% A+ A C- C- C- A B+ A A-
1.28 50% 29% 45% +1 +2 1.08 49% 0.9 .46 15% .23 75% .17 0.95 55% 40% 29% -4 -1 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 21% .27 69% .19
Jan
6		 Colorado St. A- B C- A+ A 37% 17% 46% B A B- A+ A+ C A+ F B+ A B- D B+ A 42% 14% 44% D+ A- C- F+ D B+ A+ D- A
1.22 65% 38% 43% +8 0 1.20 31% 1.8 .55 15% .38 62% .23 1.07 57% 43% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.3 .42 21% .21 82% .17
Jan
10		 Air Force A B A+ B- B- 31% 9% 60% B+ B A F D+ B- D A+ C A+ C F A+ C+ 48% 15% 38% D+ C B+ A+ A A+ D- A+ B-
1.32 67% 60% 37% +7 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22 0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17
Jan
13		 Grand Canyon A C+ A+ A+ A+ 45% 24% 31% B A+ D+ D D+ B+ A+ B- A+ A+ B- A- A+ A+ 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B+
1.19 55% 58% 53% +12 0 1.27 22% 1.0 .22 15% .45 75% .34 0.87 56% 28% 25% -9 -2 0.79 20% 0.8 .15 12% .23 87% .20
Jan
17		 San Diego St. B A F A- B 28% 19% 54% C B D+ A+ B- C B C- B- B+ F C D+ D- 22% 47% 31% A+ C- A+ B+ A A- F B F
1.01 67% 0% 38% -1 0 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 22% .34 71% .25 1.06 91% 38% 38% +8 -5 1.10 24% 1.0 .24 20% .48 73% .35
Jan
21		 Fresno St. C- D+ F F F+ 41% 11% 48% B+ D- C A+ A A+ D F F+ A- A- D- B- B 29% 19% 52% B B B- C C+ A+ F F F
1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13 0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39
Jan
24		 Nevada B F C+ A D+ 40% 10% 50% A- C- B- A- B+ A A+ B A+ B+ C F A C 39% 22% 39% D+ C B- A+ A+ B+ B- D- C
1.14 30% 40% 40% -7 +1 0.92 30% 1.3 .40 13% .44 74% .33 1.04 55% 55% 30% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.6 .19 17% .36 81% .29
Jan
27		 UNLV B+ C A+ A A- 53% 9% 38% A+ A C F F+ A F C F A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 28% 31% B+ A+ A+ A- A+ A A- F B-
1.19 58% 60% 41% +6 +3 1.19 29% 0.7 .21 13% .28 72% .20 0.82 68% 13% 18% -10 -1 0.80 18% 0.7 .13 21% .29 76% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 San Jose St. A+ B+ F A+ A 50% 13% 37% B A D- A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F C+ D 17% 26% 57% B- D+ C F F+ F B- B- B-
1.41 70% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 28% 1.6 .44 9% .42 88% .36 1.25 56% 57% 33% +4 -2 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 8% .26 73% .19
Feb
4		 Utah St. F+ B- F F D+ 53% 19% 28% A- C- F F F C+ A+ C- A+ C+ C F B- C+ 35% 12% 53% B C+ B C- B- B- D B C-
0.91 60% 22% 23% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 21% .52 70% .36 1.18 61% 67% 33% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.2 .39 16% .36 68% .25
Feb
7		 Boise St. A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ A B- A- F B- F F F 19% 10% 71% B+ F B- B- B- C+ F F F
1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24 1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46
Feb
11		 Grand Canyon B F+ B A+ A+ 35% 30% 35% D+ A+ D F F+ D C+ C C+ A+ B F A+ A+ 33% 22% 45% B A+ B- D C C+ C+ C- C
1.02 44% 43% 56% +8 -2 1.15 20% 0.8 .17 20% .33 72% .24 0.93 53% 45% 17% -11 0 0.78 31% 1.2 .36 18% .32 78% .25
Feb
17		 Air Force A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 2% 54% A+ A+ A+ F B C- A F B B+ C F A+ B+ 23% 17% 60% A- B+ A+ B- A F+ D+ C+ C-
1.39 64% 100% 52% +18 +3 1.44 45% 0.9 .39 16% .40 63% .25 0.86 58% 56% 23% -7 -1 0.87 13% 1.0 .13 17% .32 63% .20
Feb
21		 Fresno St. A D+ A+ A+ A- 55% 15% 31% A A C- F D A+ D+ A+ C D F F B- F 37% 22% 41% B- F+ D B C D+ A+ A+ A+
1.19 57% 50% 41% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.9 .23 13% .22 85% .19 1.16 75% 50% 32% +8 0 1.17 33% 0.9 .30 16% .16 56% .09
Feb
24		 Nevada F F+ B+ C C- 44% 21% 35% C+ C- F F F C- B F D+ A+ A+ F A A 44% 28% 28% C- A- B A+ A+ A C B C+
0.85 43% 45% 33% -5 0 0.92 18% 0.1 .03 18% .36 57% .21 0.95 36% 57% 29% -6 -1 0.88 31% 0.6 .19 18% .38 73% .28



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 2.0 12.8 14.8 1st
2nd 0.4 23.3 23.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 21.3 18.5 40.1 3rd
4th 2.2 12.4 14.7 4th
5th 5.3 1.6 6.8 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.8 35.6 43.8 12.8 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 100.0% 12.8    2.6 6.4 3.8
14-6 4.6% 2.0    0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.2
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 14.8% 14.8 2.6 6.5 4.6 0.9 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 12.8% 78.2% 22.5% 55.7% 9.7 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 3.2 2.9 0.0 2.8 71.9%
14-6 43.8% 56.1% 17.5% 38.6% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 7.9 13.6 0.5 19.2 46.8%
13-7 35.6% 40.0% 13.8% 26.2% 10.8 0.1 0.4 3.1 10.1 0.6 21.4 30.4%
12-8 7.8% 21.2% 7.9% 13.3% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 6.2 14.4%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 50.5% 16.0% 34.4% 10.4 49.6 41.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.9% 100.0% 8.5 4.5 14.9 28.1 34.7 13.5 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.8% 79.3% 10.0 5.0 17.1 31.8 25.0 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9% 70.5% 10.1 2.3 11.8 30.8 25.1 0.5
Lose Out 0.7% 1.4% 12.0 1.4