New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.6 #55
Expected Predictive Rating +12.7 #41
Pace 73.3 #72
Improvement +4.6 #13

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #91 B- C C+ B- A-
Defense #37 A- B C+ A- B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #114 1.18 #158 +1.8 #115
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #337 0.86 #62 -2.7 #305
Three Pointers 47% #64 1.03 #168 +3.6 #72
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #108 +2.8 #107
Freethrows 16.9 #212 76% #70 12.9 #161
Second Chance 31.0% #172 1.12 #105 0.35 #127
Turnovers 15.5% #105
Total Offense +3.4 #91

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #360 1.08 #86 +8.1 #9
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #174 0.74 #173 +0.0 #187
Three Pointers 53% #8 0.87 #34 -2.2 #275
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #35 +6.0 #35
Freethrows 14.9 #63 70% #98 10.5 #311
Second Chance 28.6% #105 1.04 #192 0.30 #130
Turnovers 19.7% #41
Total Defense +6.2 #37

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.6% #35 -1.8% #48
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.7% #142 -10.1% #34
Possession Length 16.4 #98 17.7 #251
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #106 0.16 #134
Improvement +1.6 #80 +3.0 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 31.7% 20.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 20.3% 20.9% 11.4%
Average Seed 10.0 10.0 10.5
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 96.8% 97.3% 87.5%
Conference Champion 17.2% 17.8% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.3% 9.4% 7.5%
First Round26.1% 26.7% 16.2%
Second Round9.4% 9.6% 4.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 94.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 4
Quad 26 - 38 - 7
Quad 37 - 215 - 9
Quad 48 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 325 East Texas A&M W 76-54 97%     15.9   1 - 0 +8.9 -7.7 +14.7
  Sat, Nov 8 159 Texas Arlington W 74-56 88%     11.9   2 - 0 +14.9 +0.8 +13.6
  Tue, Nov 11 297 UC Riverside W 82-68 96%     4.9   3 - 0 +3.3 +7.2 -3.2
  Sat, Nov 15 145 @New Mexico St. L 68-76 71%     -2.2   3 - 1 -4.2 +0.9 -5.6
  Thu, Nov 20 23 Nebraska L 72-84 28%     -11.1   3 - 2 +3.7 -2.2 +7.5
  Fri, Nov 21 66 Mississippi St. W 80-78 54%     2.0   4 - 2 +10.5 +8.1 +2.3
  Wed, Nov 26 299 Alabama St. W 93-87 96%     -5.6   5 - 2 -4.9 +9.4 -14.5
  Sat, Dec 6 63 Santa Clara W 98-71 64%     11.1   6 - 2 +32.9 +24.4 +7.9
  Wed, Dec 10 46 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81-78 32%     -0.8   7 - 2 +17.5 +13.8 +3.8
  Sun, Dec 14 177 Florida Gulf Coast W 75-59 89%     4.6   8 - 2 +11.9 -0.3 +12.6
  Sat, Dec 20 217 San Jose St. W 88-65 92%     9.7   9 - 2 1 - 0 +16.8 +13.1 +4.3
  Tue, Dec 30 52 @Boise St. L 53-62 36%     0.3   9 - 3 1 - 1 +4.4 -11.1 +15.6
  Sat, Jan 3 96 Wyoming W 78-58 75%     5.7   10 - 3 2 - 1 +22.5 +17.7 +7.8
  Tue, Jan 6 95 @Colorado St. W 80-70 54%     7.2   11 - 3 3 - 1 +18.7 +12.7 +6.7
  Sat, Jan 10 336 @Air Force W 76-59 95%    
  Tue, Jan 13 97 Grand Canyon W 76-69 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 50 @San Diego St. L 72-76 36%    
  Wed, Jan 21 155 Fresno St. W 80-67 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 87 Nevada W 75-69 71%    
  Tue, Jan 27 143 @UNLV W 81-75 69%    
  Sat, Jan 31 217 @San Jose St. W 78-68 82%    
  Wed, Feb 4 33 Utah St. L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Feb 7 52 Boise St. W 72-70 58%    
  Wed, Feb 11 97 @Grand Canyon W 73-72 55%    
  Tue, Feb 17 336 Air Force W 79-56 98%    
  Sat, Feb 21 155 @Fresno St. W 77-70 73%    
  Tue, Feb 24 87 @Nevada L 72-73 50%    
  Sat, Feb 28 50 San Diego St. W 75-73 57%    
  Wed, Mar 4 95 Colorado St. W 77-70 74%    
  Sat, Mar 7 33 @Utah St. L 73-80 26%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.8 5.9 4.6 1.7 0.3 17.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 7.2 9.0 4.4 0.8 0.0 23.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 7.2 8.5 2.6 0.2 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 5.6 7.0 1.9 0.1 15.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.7 5.0 1.5 0.1 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 1.2 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.8 9.3 13.5 17.4 18.5 15.4 10.5 5.4 1.7 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 98.6% 1.7    1.6 0.1
17-3 85.5% 4.6    3.5 1.1 0.0
16-4 56.6% 5.9    2.9 2.5 0.4 0.0
15-5 24.5% 3.8    1.0 1.9 0.8 0.1
14-6 4.6% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 17.2% 17.2 9.3 5.9 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.7% 93.1% 30.1% 63.0% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.1%
17-3 5.4% 81.2% 27.8% 53.4% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.2 1.2 0.5 1.0 74.0%
16-4 10.5% 62.5% 22.8% 39.8% 9.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 2.0 0.0 3.9 51.5%
15-5 15.4% 44.6% 18.4% 26.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.5 0.0 8.6 32.1%
14-6 18.5% 31.2% 14.0% 17.1% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.8 0.1 12.7 19.9%
13-7 17.4% 19.2% 10.1% 9.0% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.6 0.2 14.0 10.1%
12-8 13.5% 10.8% 7.7% 3.0% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 0.1 12.0 3.3%
11-9 9.3% 6.6% 5.5% 1.1% 11.1 0.0 0.5 0.1 8.7 1.2%
10-10 4.8% 3.6% 3.3% 0.3% 11.1 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.3%
9-11 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 2.1
8-12 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.1% 13.5% 17.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.0 4.2 8.2 14.3 0.6 68.9 20.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 4.3 17.4 39.1 17.4 21.7