New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.6#54
Expected Predictive Rating+13.1#26
Pace77.1#21
Improvement-0.6#267

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#34
First Shot+5.9#35
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#147
Layup/Dunks+5.3#21
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#332
Freethrows+3.1#17
Improvement-0.2#228

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#84
First Shot+3.7#69
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#226
Layups/Dunks+1.2#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#65
Freethrows+0.9#117
Improvement-0.5#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 2.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.7% 9.9% 1.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 74.8% 81.6% 63.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 71.0% 78.6% 58.3%
Average Seed 9.1 8.7 9.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.3% 99.3% 93.8%
Conference Champion 6.2% 9.2% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.6% 12.9% 20.1%
First Round66.2% 74.6% 51.9%
Second Round28.1% 32.6% 20.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.7% 9.1% 5.4%
Elite Eight2.6% 3.0% 1.8%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 13 - 3
Quad 24 - 27 - 5
Quad 38 - 215 - 7
Quad 48 - 023 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 114   Southern Utah W 89-81 81%     1 - 0 +8.4 +5.7 +1.9
  Nov 11, 2022 182   South Alabama W 80-74 88%     2 - 0 +2.8 +3.4 -0.9
  Nov 15, 2022 167   @ SMU W 84-63 74%     3 - 0 +23.8 +7.3 +14.8
  Nov 25, 2022 257   Jacksonville St. W 79-61 94%     4 - 0 +10.2 +1.6 +8.5
  Nov 26, 2022 241   North Dakota St. W 76-55 93%     5 - 0 +14.1 -3.6 +17.1
  Nov 27, 2022 268   Northern Colorado W 98-74 94%     6 - 0 +15.7 +13.2 +1.3
  Nov 30, 2022 12   @ St. Mary's W 69-65 22%     7 - 0 +21.7 +9.1 +12.7
  Dec 10, 2022 312   Texas San Antonio W 94-76 96%     8 - 0 +7.1 +9.2 -3.1
  Dec 12, 2022 88   San Francisco W 67-64 65%     9 - 0 +8.6 -0.4 +9.2
  Dec 18, 2022 85   Iona W 82-74 73%     10 - 0 +11.1 +4.4 +6.1
  Dec 20, 2022 287   Prairie View W 94-63 95%     11 - 0 +21.6 +6.3 +10.5
  Dec 28, 2022 113   Colorado St. W 88-69 80%     12 - 0 1 - 0 +19.7 +14.1 +5.7
  Dec 31, 2022 139   @ Wyoming W 76-75 69%     13 - 0 2 - 0 +5.4 +2.5 +2.9
  Jan 03, 2023 169   @ Fresno St. L 67-71 74%     13 - 1 2 - 1 -1.2 -1.3 +0.1
  Jan 07, 2023 76   UNLV L 77-84 70%     13 - 2 2 - 2 -2.8 +1.0 -3.2
  Jan 09, 2023 69   Oral Roberts W 82-75 65%     14 - 2 +12.5 +4.1 +7.9
  Jan 14, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. W 76-67 30%     15 - 2 3 - 2 +23.9 +7.2 +16.3
  Jan 17, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 77-57 82%     16 - 2 4 - 2 +20.0 +8.7 +12.8
  Jan 20, 2023 36   Boise St. W 81-79 OT 52%     17 - 2 5 - 2 +11.0 +6.2 +4.6
  Jan 23, 2023 59   @ Nevada L 94-97 2OT 42%     17 - 3 5 - 3 +8.7 +9.5 -0.3
  Jan 27, 2023 168   Air Force W 81-73 87%     18 - 3 6 - 3 +5.3 +9.8 -4.2
  Feb 01, 2023 47   @ Utah St. L 73-84 38%     18 - 4 6 - 4 +1.7 +5.0 -3.5
  Feb 07, 2023 59   Nevada W 77-74 63%    
  Feb 10, 2023 168   @ Air Force W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 14, 2023 139   Wyoming W 82-71 84%    
  Feb 17, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 22, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 69-74 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 33   San Diego St. W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 28, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 74-62 88%    
  Mar 03, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. W 78-75 62%    
Projected Record 23 - 7 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.3 2.7 6.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 4.4 7.6 0.4 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 11.5 2.5 17.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.8 13.2 8.1 0.1 25.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 5.5 14.0 10.8 1.2 32.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.3 1.1 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 8.2 19.0 28.0 25.5 13.5 3.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 86.8% 2.7    1.1 1.3 0.3 0.0
13-5 24.3% 3.3    0.2 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.2% 6.2 1.3 2.4 1.7 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.1% 99.9% 20.4% 79.5% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-5 13.5% 96.8% 17.5% 79.3% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 4.0 3.4 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.4 96.1%
12-6 25.5% 89.5% 14.2% 75.3% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.9 8.4 6.3 1.2 0.0 2.7 87.7%
11-7 28.0% 76.2% 12.7% 63.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.9 10.3 4.8 0.1 6.7 72.7%
10-8 19.0% 58.1% 10.5% 47.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.9 4.7 5.2 0.1 8.0 53.2%
9-9 8.2% 36.7% 8.8% 27.9% 10.8 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.2 5.2 30.6%
8-10 2.3% 17.6% 6.9% 10.7% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 1.9 11.4%
7-11 0.4% 10.6% 8.5% 2.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.3%
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 74.8% 13.1% 61.7% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.7 3.4 5.7 9.5 16.2 22.5 13.6 0.5 0.0 25.2 71.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.1% 99.9% 4.5 0.1 1.2 13.3 36.2 31.7 14.9 2.1 0.3 0.1