New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#47
Expected Predictive Rating+10.6#53
Pace79.0#15
Improvement+2.1#37

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#36
First Shot+4.5#64
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#94
Layup/Dunks+7.7#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#179
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#309
Freethrows+1.4#91
Improvement+0.6#117

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#69
First Shot+4.6#61
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#232
Layups/Dunks+1.1#140
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#13
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#115
Freethrows-1.9#288
Improvement+1.5#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.2% 5.1% 1.1%
Top 6 Seed 9.8% 11.5% 3.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.1% 45.9% 28.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 33.9% 37.8% 20.1%
Average Seed 8.5 8.3 9.3
.500 or above 97.4% 98.3% 93.9%
.500 or above in Conference 83.0% 84.5% 77.5%
Conference Champion 15.6% 16.8% 11.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.8% 1.1%
First Four7.0% 7.4% 5.6%
First Round38.5% 42.3% 24.4%
Second Round20.0% 22.3% 11.7%
Sweet Sixteen7.6% 8.5% 4.4%
Elite Eight3.3% 3.6% 2.1%
Final Four1.4% 1.7% 0.5%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.4%
National Champion0.3% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 78.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 24 - 36 - 7
Quad 38 - 214 - 9
Quad 47 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 235   Texas Southern W 92-55 93%     1 - 0 +30.2 +9.5 +17.3
  Nov 09, 2023 61   @ St. Mary's L 58-72 44%     1 - 1 -2.4 -4.5 +1.6
  Nov 16, 2023 190   Texas Arlington W 82-80 91%     2 - 1 -2.5 +2.2 -4.8
  Nov 21, 2023 109   Toledo W 92-84 73%     3 - 1 +12.0 +4.1 +6.7
  Nov 22, 2023 246   Rice W 90-56 91%     4 - 1 +29.5 +7.0 +20.8
  Nov 24, 2023 180   Pepperdine W 90-71 85%     5 - 1 +18.1 +7.1 +9.3
  Nov 29, 2023 99   Louisiana Tech W 80-71 79%    
  Dec 02, 2023 236   New Mexico St. W 89-72 94%    
  Dec 06, 2023 160   UC Santa Barbara W 87-74 89%    
  Dec 09, 2023 127   Santa Clara W 85-78 76%    
  Dec 15, 2023 236   @ New Mexico St. W 86-75 84%    
  Dec 20, 2023 66   UC Irvine W 80-75 68%    
  Jan 02, 2024 26   @ Colorado St. L 77-83 30%    
  Jan 06, 2024 150   Wyoming W 82-70 88%    
  Jan 09, 2024 128   @ UNLV W 81-76 65%    
  Jan 13, 2024 21   San Diego St. L 76-77 49%    
  Jan 16, 2024 57   Utah St. W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 20, 2024 196   @ Air Force W 73-64 78%    
  Jan 24, 2024 112   @ San Jose St. W 73-69 63%    
  Jan 28, 2024 40   Nevada W 79-77 58%    
  Jan 31, 2024 76   Boise St. W 77-71 71%    
  Feb 06, 2024 150   @ Wyoming W 79-73 70%    
  Feb 10, 2024 128   UNLV W 84-73 81%    
  Feb 13, 2024 40   @ Nevada L 76-80 38%    
  Feb 16, 2024 21   @ San Diego St. L 73-79 29%    
  Feb 21, 2024 26   Colorado St. W 80-79 52%    
  Feb 24, 2024 196   Air Force W 76-61 91%    
  Mar 02, 2024 76   @ Boise St. W 75-74 51%    
  Mar 06, 2024 169   Fresno St. W 81-68 88%    
  Mar 09, 2024 57   @ Utah St. L 77-79 43%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.5 4.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 15.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.6 4.5 1.1 0.1 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 4.7 6.9 3.3 0.5 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.4 6.8 2.7 0.4 15.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.1 5.8 2.0 0.2 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.1 2.7 1.1 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.4 0.8 0.1 3.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.5 4.5 7.6 10.6 13.0 14.3 13.5 12.1 9.5 5.8 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 97.3% 2.9    2.6 0.3
15-3 81.1% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.2
14-4 47.3% 4.5    1.8 2.1 0.5 0.0
13-5 15.0% 1.8    0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
12-6 2.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.6% 15.6 9.3 4.6 1.3 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 12.6% 87.4% 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 1.0% 100.0% 30.4% 69.6% 2.8 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 100.0%
16-2 3.0% 99.7% 29.4% 70.3% 4.3 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-3 5.8% 95.8% 25.0% 70.8% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 94.3%
14-4 9.5% 89.2% 19.7% 69.5% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 86.5%
13-5 12.1% 71.8% 17.3% 54.5% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 2.1 1.5 0.2 3.4 65.9%
12-6 13.5% 48.4% 10.9% 37.5% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.2 2.4 0.3 0.0 7.0 42.1%
11-7 14.3% 31.8% 11.0% 20.8% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.4 0.6 9.7 23.4%
10-8 13.0% 17.0% 8.6% 8.4% 11.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 10.8 9.2%
9-9 10.6% 9.8% 7.1% 2.8% 11.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.6 3.0%
8-10 7.6% 6.8% 6.7% 0.1% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.1 0.1%
7-11 4.5% 5.3% 5.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.3
6-12 2.5% 1.6% 1.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5
5-13 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 42.1% 12.4% 29.8% 8.5 0.3 0.7 1.1 2.1 2.4 3.2 4.0 4.2 5.5 7.2 8.5 2.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 57.9 33.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 81.1 12.2 5.4 1.4