Preseason Rankings
New Mexico
Mountain West
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.1#79
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace79.7#6
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#101
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#63
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 15.2% 3.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.9% 7.1% 1.0%
Average Seed 9.5 9.5 10.6
.500 or above 80.9% 81.7% 50.2%
.500 or above in Conference 72.5% 73.1% 48.0%
Conference Champion 9.8% 10.0% 3.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.2% 3.9%
First Four2.8% 2.9% 0.6%
First Round13.5% 13.8% 3.8%
Second Round5.6% 5.7% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Home) - 97.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 24 - 45 - 8
Quad 36 - 311 - 11
Quad 48 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2025 333   East Texas A&M W 83-63 97%    
  Nov 08, 2025 202   Texas Arlington W 82-70 88%    
  Nov 11, 2025 258   UC Riverside W 83-68 92%    
  Nov 15, 2025 138   @ New Mexico St. W 73-70 60%    
  Nov 20, 2025 60   Nebraska L 76-78 42%    
  Nov 26, 2025 292   Alabama St. W 84-67 94%    
  Dec 06, 2025 105   Santa Clara W 81-75 68%    
  Dec 10, 2025 58   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 69-75 32%    
  Dec 14, 2025 181   Florida Gulf Coast W 79-67 84%    
  Dec 20, 2025 159   San Jose St. W 79-69 81%    
  Dec 30, 2025 62   @ Boise St. L 71-76 33%    
  Jan 03, 2026 155   Wyoming W 76-66 81%    
  Jan 06, 2026 94   @ Colorado St. L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 10, 2026 280   @ Air Force W 76-65 82%    
  Jan 13, 2026 80   Grand Canyon W 81-78 61%    
  Jan 17, 2026 38   @ San Diego St. L 67-76 22%    
  Jan 21, 2026 198   Fresno St. W 86-74 85%    
  Jan 24, 2026 98   Nevada W 73-68 66%    
  Jan 27, 2026 86   @ UNLV L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 31, 2026 159   @ San Jose St. W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 04, 2026 54   Utah St. L 78-79 50%    
  Feb 07, 2026 62   Boise St. W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 11, 2026 80   @ Grand Canyon L 78-81 41%    
  Feb 17, 2026 280   Air Force W 79-62 92%    
  Feb 21, 2026 198   @ Fresno St. W 83-77 70%    
  Feb 24, 2026 98   @ Nevada L 70-71 46%    
  Feb 28, 2026 38   San Diego St. L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 04, 2026 94   Colorado St. W 76-71 65%    
  Mar 07, 2026 54   @ Utah St. L 75-81 31%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.6 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 9.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.4 2.7 0.8 0.1 12.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.4 4.1 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.9 4.4 1.4 0.1 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.8 4.1 1.1 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.8 0.9 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.0 3.1 0.8 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.1 2.5 0.7 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.1 4.9 6.7 8.9 10.0 11.4 11.4 10.6 9.3 7.9 5.5 3.5 1.9 0.7 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
18-2 94.0% 1.8    1.6 0.2
17-3 76.4% 2.7    1.9 0.7 0.1
16-4 46.4% 2.6    1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 19.2% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.3 0.1
14-6 3.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.8% 9.8 6.1 2.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 97.9% 63.1% 34.8% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.2%
19-1 0.7% 94.3% 46.0% 48.3% 5.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.4%
18-2 1.9% 87.1% 39.5% 47.6% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 78.7%
17-3 3.5% 69.8% 30.9% 38.9% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.1 56.3%
16-4 5.5% 49.3% 23.3% 25.9% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.8 33.8%
15-5 7.9% 33.2% 17.0% 16.2% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.1 0.1 5.3 19.5%
14-6 9.3% 19.6% 13.0% 6.5% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.4 7.5%
13-7 10.6% 10.9% 8.6% 2.3% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 9.5 2.5%
12-8 11.4% 6.9% 6.4% 0.5% 11.2 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.6%
11-9 11.4% 3.6% 3.5% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.0 0.1%
10-10 10.0% 2.3% 2.2% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0%
9-11 8.9% 1.2% 1.2% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8
8-12 6.7% 0.4% 0.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7
7-13 4.9% 0.3% 0.3% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 30.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 1.1% 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 8.6% 6.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.7 3.6 4.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 6.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 2.5 27.7 35.9 18.1 9.2 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 3.6 20.2 20.2 39.9 19.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 4.0 33.6 32.8 33.6