New Mexico
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.0 49
Expected Predictive Rating +11.7 51
Pace 74.5 43
Improvement +2.4 90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B 66 B C B C+ B+
Defense B 45 B B- B C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 76 C 59% 147 +2.8 91
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% 327 C+ 40% 112 -2.7 307
Three Pointers 45% 111 B+ 38% 30 +4.6 38
Shot Selection/Accuracy B+ +1.3 29 B- +3.2 77
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 56
Second Chance C 30.6% 178 C 1.03 166 C 0.32 163
Turnovers B 14.8% 49
Freethrows C 0.30 186 B 75% 76 C+ 0.23 141
Total Offense B +5.4 66

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% 359 C+ 56% 139 +6.9 14
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 134 D+ 41% 289 -1.0 269
Three Pointers 51% 6 A- 29% 24 -1.6 261
Shot Selection/Accuracy B -0.9 43 B -3.3 56
1st FG Attempt B 0.93 53
Second Chance B 26.7% 56 C+ 1.01 145 B- 0.27 68
Turnovers B 19.7% 43
Freethrows B- 0.28 93 D+ 74% 258 C+ 0.21 119
Total Defense B +5.6 45

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.9 53 17.7 259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 93 0.15 99
Improvement +2.4 #65 +0.0 #194

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 47% 47% 34%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37% 37% 25%
Average Seed 10.2 10.2 10.5
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 8% 8% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four18% 18% 13%
First Round37% 37% 26%
Second Round13% 13% 10%
Sweet Sixteen2% 2% 0%
Elite Eight1% 1% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 99.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 6
Quad 26 - 29 - 8
Quad 36 - 114 - 9
Quad 49 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 299 East Texas A&M W 76 - 54 97% +16  98% 1 - 0 B +11 F+ -9 F+ B+ D+ A+ +18 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 175 Texas Arlington W 74 - 56 91% +12  90% 2 - 0 B+ +14 D+ -3 B F C A+ +16 A C+ A+
 Tue, Nov 11 296 UC Riverside W 82 - 68 97% +5  74% 3 - 0 C+ +3 B +6 B- C- A+ C- -2 D- B+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 168 @New Mexico St. L 68 - 76 79% -2  15% 3 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -3 D C+ F C- -3 B+ F D
 Thu, Nov 20 15 Nebraska L 72 - 84 24% -11  0% 3 - 2 B- +6 D+ -3 B- C C+ A +11 C+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 79 Mississippi St. W 80 - 78 65% +2  67% 4 - 2 B +9 B +7 B B C B- +2 C+ A F
 Wed, Nov 26 317 Alabama St. W 93 - 87 98% -6  14% 5 - 2 D+ -7 A- +9 A+ D- B+ F -16 F F A
 Sat, Dec 6 44 Santa Clara W 98 - 71 57% +11  85% 6 - 2 A+ +36 A+ +23 A+ A+ A A +12 A+ D A
 Wed, Dec 10 51 @Virginia Commonwealth W 81 - 78 39% -1  35% 7 - 2 A- +17 A +11 A+ F D- B +6 A+ C B-
 Sun, Dec 14 245 Florida Gulf Coast W 75 - 59 95% +5  61% 8 - 2 B +8 D+ -3 F C+ D A +12 A- A- C
 Sat, Dec 20 237 San Jose St. W 88 - 65 95% +10  93% 9 - 2 1 - 0 A- +16 A- +10 A C B+ B+ +6 B- A- B+
 Tue, Dec 30 58 @Boise St. L 53 - 62 45% +0  52% 9 - 3 1 - 1 C+ +3 F -18 F D A A+ +21 A+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 3 106 Wyoming W 78 - 58 82% +6  57% 10 - 3 2 - 1 A +21 A +14 B- A+ B A +10 A C- A
 Tue, Jan 6 103 @Colorado St. W 80 - 70 63% +7  92% 11 - 3 3 - 1 A +18 A +11 A A+ C B+ +7 A- D- B
 Sat, Jan 10 348 @Air Force W 91 - 49 96% +21  90% 12 - 3 4 - 1 A+ +33 A+ +15 B D+ B A+ +18 C A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 69 Grand Canyon W 87 - 64 71% +9  94% 13 - 3 5 - 1 A+ +28 A +14 A+ D A- A+ +13 A+ A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 43 @San Diego St. L 79 - 83 34% -3  14% 13 - 4 5 - 2 B+ +11 B +6 B B C B +6 C A B+
 Wed, Jan 21 142 Fresno St. W 83 - 74 88% +11  93% 14 - 4 6 - 2 B- +7 C +0 D A A+ B+ +6 B C A+
 Sat, Jan 24 66 Nevada W 80 - 73 71% +0  49% 15 - 4 7 - 2 B+ +12 B +6 C- B A B+ +7 C A+ A-
 Tue, Jan 27 124 @UNLV W 89 - 61 71% +18  97% 16 - 4 8 - 2 A+ +33 B+ +9 A F A A+ +23 A+ A+ A
 Sat, Jan 31 237 @San Jose St. W 90 - 80 87% +7  97% 17 - 4 9 - 2 B +9 A+ +22 A B- A+ F -12 D F F
 Wed, Feb 4 34 Utah St. L 66 - 86 49% -8  3% 17 - 5 9 - 3 D -9 D- -8 C F C+ C -0 C+ B C+
 Sat, Feb 7 58 Boise St. L 90 - 91 67% -1  37% 17 - 6 9 - 4 B- +5 A+ +20 A+ D+ A+ F -15 F B C+
 Wed, Feb 11 69 @Grand Canyon W 70 - 64 49% +8  86% 18 - 6 10 - 4 A- +17 B- +5 A+ F+ D A +12 A+ C- C+
 Tue, Feb 17 348 Air Force W 85 - 59 99%
 Sat, Feb 21 142 @Fresno St. W 79 - 72 74%
 Tue, Feb 24 66 @Nevada L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 43 San Diego St. W 76 - 74 56%
 Wed, Mar 4 103 Colorado St. W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Mar 7 34 @Utah St. L 76 - 82 28%
Totals 22 - 8 14 - 6 +11 F +5 A B- B+ B +6 B+ B C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C C+ B+ B- 43% 13% 45% B+ B C C C B C B C+ B C+ D+ A- B 27% 22% 51% B B B C+ B- B B- D+ C+
1.16 59% 40% 38% +3 +1 1.11 31% 1.0 .32 15% .30 75% .23 1.01 56% 41% 29% -3 -1 0.93 27% 1.0 .27 20% .28 74% .22
Nov
5		 East Texas A&M F+ F F A F 51% 16% 33% C+ F+ C- A+ B+ D+ B F C A+ F C- A+ A 25% 20% 55% A- A D+ A B- A+ B B B
0.99 46% 13% 41% -6 +2 0.92 30% 1.4 .43 19% .37 61% .23 0.70 71% 36% 17% -11 -1 0.78 26% 0.6 .17 27% .20 64% .12
Nov
8		 Texas Arlington D+ B A+ F C+ 45% 8% 47% A+ B C- F F C A A+ A+ A+ C- F A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% C+ A D- A- C+ A+ F C+ F
1.03 64% 50% 26% -2 +2 1.02 27% 0.7 .18 17% .45 81% .37 0.78 57% 50% 14% -14 0 0.76 40% 0.8 .31 32% .49 71% .35
Nov
11		 UC Riverside B A C- F C+ 51% 18% 32% B- B- D B+ C- A+ D- D D- C- A+ A F F 22% 24% 54% A D- A+ D- B+ B- B+ F C-
1.23 72% 40% 28% +5 +1 1.14 26% 1.1 .29 8% .28 65% .18 1.02 30% 27% 52% +6 -2 1.11 16% 1.0 .16 21% .25 92% .23
Nov
15		 New Mexico St. D+ C+ D- F D- 31% 15% 54% B- D D+ A C+ F D- A- D+ C- F B A+ B+ 17% 25% 58% B B+ C+ F F D F D- F
1.03 60% 29% 27% -6 0 0.90 28% 1.3 .38 20% .32 82% .27 1.16 88% 33% 25% -4 -2 0.90 31% 1.3 .41 12% .45 77% .35
Nov
20		 Nebraska D+ C- A+ D- C+ 20% 14% 66% A- B- D A- C C+ D D D A D B- D C 26% 11% 63% B C+ A+ B A+ A+ F A F
0.89 58% 63% 28% -2 0 0.97 20% 1.0 .20 20% .17 64% .11 1.04 71% 33% 38% +7 0 1.17 15% 1.0 .15 22% .40 68% .27
Nov
21		 Mississippi St. B D F B+ B- 38% 13% 48% A+ B B+ C B C A+ B- A+ B- D D+ C+ C 25% 27% 47% A- C+ A+ C A F A A+ A+
1.10 50% 29% 36% -3 +1 0.98 32% 1.0 .32 14% .40 76% .30 1.08 67% 44% 32% +3 -2 1.03 20% 1.0 .20 10% .20 54% .11
Nov
26		 Alabama St. A- B- A+ A+ A+ 41% 7% 52% B+ A+ C- F D- B+ A+ D- A+ F D+ C F F 24% 27% 49% A- F F+ F F A F+ F F
1.28 63% 67% 46% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.9 .30 15% .62 71% .44 1.20 58% 36% 48% +10 -2 1.18 37% 1.6 .59 23% .36 80% .29
Dec
6		 Santa Clara A+ A+ F A- A+ 48% 10% 42% B+ A+ B A+ A+ A A- A+ A+ A A F A+ A+ 22% 9% 69% C+ A+ D C- D A B- D+ C+
1.37 79% 20% 38% +11 +2 1.28 35% 1.8 .62 17% .40 88% .35 0.99 50% 80% 21% -11 0 0.80 41% 1.1 .45 21% .21 75% .16
Dec
10		 Virginia Commonwealth A C A+ A+ A+ 57% 9% 35% A+ A+ C+ F F D- A A+ A+ B A+ F A- A+ 39% 12% 49% C+ A+ F+ A- C B- F F F
1.16 54% 75% 50% +9 +3 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 20% .39 86% .34 1.12 37% 67% 29% -8 +1 0.88 41% 0.9 .39 17% .48 82% .40
Dec
14		 Florida Gulf Coast D+ F A+ F F 35% 4% 61% B+ F A+ F C+ D A+ A+ A+ A A- C- A- A- 12% 24% 63% B+ A- A- B+ A- C C+ A B
1.10 47% 100% 23% -11 +2 0.84 44% 0.8 .33 19% .49 89% .43 0.86 50% 42% 29% -5 -2 0.88 24% 0.9 .22 18% .25 64% .16
Dec
20		 San Jose St. A- A+ A+ C+ A+ 32% 10% 58% C+ A F A+ C B+ B- A B+ B+ A A+ F+ C+ 21% 31% 48% B B- B+ B+ A- B+ A+ F+ A
1.29 81% 80% 34% +12 +1 1.28 16% 2.5 .40 15% .31 83% .26 0.95 45% 25% 40% -2 -3 0.92 28% 0.9 .25 19% .18 80% .15
Dec
30		 Boise St. F F C F F 32% 26% 42% C- F D+ D- D A D+ F+ D A+ D+ A- A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% B A+ A+ A+ A+ D D+ A+ B-
0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16 0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26
Jan
3		 Wyoming A D- F A+ B- 47% 14% 39% B- B- A+ C+ A+ B F B+ F A C+ B- A- B+ 24% 22% 53% A+ A C- C- C- A A- A A
1.28 50% 29% 45% +1 +2 1.08 49% 0.9 .46 15% .23 75% .17 0.95 55% 40% 29% -4 -1 0.91 38% 1.0 .38 21% .27 69% .19
Jan
6		 Colorado St. A B C- A+ A 37% 17% 46% B A B A+ A+ C A F+ B+ B+ B- D- B+ A 42% 14% 44% D A- C- F D- B A+ D- A
1.22 65% 38% 43% +9 0 1.20 31% 1.8 .55 15% .38 62% .23 1.07 57% 43% 32% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.3 .42 21% .21 82% .17
Jan
10		 Air Force A+ B A+ B B 31% 9% 60% B B A- F D+ B D A+ C A+ C F A+ C+ 48% 15% 38% D+ C B+ A+ A A+ D- A+ B-
1.32 67% 60% 37% +8 +1 1.19 39% 0.7 .28 13% .27 81% .22 0.71 58% 67% 20% -4 +1 0.98 18% 0.7 .12 31% .36 47% .17
Jan
13		 Grand Canyon A C A+ A+ A+ 45% 24% 31% B A+ D+ D+ D A- A+ B- A+ A+ C+ A- A+ A 28% 31% 41% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ F+ A F B+
1.19 55% 58% 53% +12 0 1.27 22% 1.0 .22 15% .45 75% .34 0.87 56% 28% 25% -9 -2 0.79 20% 0.8 .15 12% .23 87% .20
Jan
17		 San Diego St. B A F A- B 28% 19% 54% C B D+ A+ B C B C- B- B F C D+ D 22% 47% 31% A+ C A B A B+ F B- F
1.01 67% 0% 38% -1 -1 0.98 24% 1.2 .29 22% .34 71% .25 1.06 91% 38% 38% +9 -5 1.10 24% 1.0 .24 20% .48 73% .35
Jan
21		 Fresno St. C D+ F+ F F+ 41% 11% 48% B+ D C A+ A A+ D F F+ B+ A- D- C+ B- 29% 19% 52% B B C+ C- C A+ F F F
1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13 0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39
Jan
24		 Nevada B F C+ A D+ 40% 10% 50% B+ C- B- B B A A+ B- A+ B+ C F A C+ 39% 22% 39% D C B- A+ A+ A- C+ D C
1.14 30% 40% 40% -6 +1 0.92 30% 1.3 .40 13% .44 74% .33 1.04 55% 55% 30% 0 0 1.02 32% 0.6 .19 17% .36 81% .29
Jan
27		 UNLV B+ C+ A+ A A- 53% 9% 38% A+ A C F F A F C+ F A+ F+ A+ A+ A+ 41% 28% 31% B+ A+ A+ B+ A+ A A F+ B
1.19 58% 60% 41% +6 +3 1.19 29% 0.7 .21 13% .28 72% .20 0.82 68% 13% 18% -10 -1 0.80 18% 0.7 .13 21% .29 76% .22
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 San Jose St. A+ B+ F A+ A 50% 13% 37% B A D- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ F C F C+ D- 17% 26% 57% B D C F F F B- C+ B-
1.41 70% 17% 47% +10 +2 1.26 28% 1.6 .44 9% .42 88% .36 1.25 56% 57% 33% +4 -2 1.06 32% 1.4 .44 8% .26 73% .19
Feb
4		 Utah St. D- B F F D+ 53% 19% 28% A- C F F F C+ A+ D+ A+ C C F C+ C 35% 12% 53% B C+ B+ C B C+ D B C-
0.91 60% 22% 23% -6 +1 0.91 21% 0.3 .06 21% .52 70% .36 1.18 61% 67% 33% +4 +1 1.12 32% 1.2 .39 16% .36 68% .25
Feb
7		 Boise St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 48% 10% 42% A+ A+ A+ F D+ A+ B+ B- B+ F B- F F F 19% 10% 71% A- F B B- B C+ F F F
1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24 1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46
Feb
11		 Grand Canyon B- F+ B A+ A+ 35% 30% 35% D+ A+ D- F F+ D C+ C C+ A B F A+ A+ 33% 22% 45% B+ A+ B- F+ C- C+ C+ D+ C
1.02 44% 43% 56% +8 -2 1.15 20% 0.8 .17 20% .33 72% .24 0.93 53% 45% 17% -11 0 0.78 31% 1.2 .36 18% .32 78% .25



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 3.5 4.2 7.8 1st
2nd 0.2 7.3 13.9 1.5 22.8 2nd
3rd 0.7 11.8 25.0 5.8 43.2 3rd
4th 0.1 3.4 12.0 2.8 18.3 4th
5th 0.5 3.9 2.1 0.0 6.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 1.2 8.7 26.1 35.3 23.1 5.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 74.0% 4.2    1.6 2.1 0.5
15-5 15.0% 3.5    0.2 1.4 1.6 0.3
14-6 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 7.8% 7.8 1.8 3.5 2.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 5.6% 83.2% 25.1% 58.1% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.9 77.6%
15-5 23.1% 65.4% 20.7% 44.7% 10.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.0 5.8 5.2 0.0 8.0 56.4%
14-6 35.3% 48.9% 15.7% 33.3% 10.4 0.0 0.4 1.6 5.4 9.8 0.1 18.0 39.4%
13-7 26.1% 31.1% 11.4% 19.8% 10.7 0.0 0.3 1.7 6.0 0.1 18.0 22.3%
12-8 8.7% 19.3% 9.4% 9.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 0.0 7.0 10.9%
11-9 1.2% 9.7% 6.5% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 3.5%
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 47.0% 15.6% 31.4% 10.2 53.0 37.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.4% 100.0% 7.1 0.4 6.7 23.7 32.2 24.4 11.7 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.3% 83.1% 9.1 0.4 3.5 16.5 31.5 26.2 5.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.8% 78.0% 9.5 0.3 3.1 8.8 22.0 31.9 11.9