Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.5 #153
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #185
Pace 71.1 #119
Improvement +1.7 #101

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #250 C C- D+ C B-
Defense #84 B- B- B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #79 1.19 #144 +2.7 #91
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #265 0.73 #216 -1.8 #269
Three Pointers 41% #174 0.97 #250 -0.8 #207
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #173 +0.1 #172
Freethrows 0.29 #226 75% #84 0.22 #186
Second Chance 30.1% #200 0.93 #319 0.28 #253
Turnovers 18.3% #293
Total Offense -2.8 #250

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #267 1.28 #319 -0.3 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #225 0.74 #141 +0.8 #132
Three Pointers 46% #55 0.78 #1 +3.0 #65
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #69 +3.6 #69
Freethrows 0.25 #42 71% #120 0.18 #39
Second Chance 27.3% #71 1.05 #194 0.29 #99
Turnovers 18.6% #64
Total Defense +3.4 #84

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.6% #74 0.0% #163
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.4% #196 -7.0% #62
Possession Length 16.2 #71 17.0 #120
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #99 0.22 #327
Improvement -1.5 #260 +3.2 #29

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 6.7% 7.9% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 9.6% 11.4% 2.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.6%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 81.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 5
Quad 21 - 62 - 12
Quad 35 - 47 - 16
Quad 46 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 306 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 87% +4  0 - 1 -13 -11 F B+ D- -1 D D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 251 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 79% +10  1 - 1 +12 +3 A+ F F +8 A B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 112 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 50% -4  1 - 2 -5 -0 B D F+ -4 D+ D+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 109 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 49% -4  2 - 2 +2 +3 A+ D F -1 C B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 104 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 46% -1  3 - 2 +4 +12 A+ B- D- -8 C F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 242 New Orleans W 85 - 76 78% +4  4 - 2 +2 -3 C- A+ F +4 B+ B- A
 Wed, Nov 26 281 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 76% +7  5 - 2 +16 +4 B- C+ A+ +13 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 300 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 86% +4  5 - 3 -16 -8 F A+ F -8 C A- F+
 Sat, Dec 6 19 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 4% -15  5 - 4 -4 -10 F+ F F +8 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 10 219 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 53% -4  5 - 5 -2 +13 A+ F+ C -15 F A+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 117 @UNLV L 72 - 84 30% -4  5 - 6 0 - 1 -6 +3 C B- B- -9 F F B
 Tue, Dec 30 40 Utah St. L 63 - 72 19% -7  5 - 7 0 - 2 +1 -11 D F D+ +13 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 78 Nevada L 65 - 66 35% +2  5 - 8 0 - 3 +3 -2 B- B- F +5 B+ C+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 231 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 56% +11  6 - 8 1 - 3 +14 +3 C C F +13 B A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 45 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 10% -15  6 - 9 1 - 4 -5 -15 F+ F D +11 A+ F C-
 Tue, Jan 13 96 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 43% +7  7 - 9 2 - 4 +12 +13 C B- A- +0 B+ A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 110 Wyoming W 63 - 60 49% -2  8 - 9 3 - 4 +4 -1 C F B+ +5 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 50 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 11% -11  8 - 10 3 - 5 +5 +1 C+ C F +4 A+ D- D+
 Sat, Jan 24 70 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 33% -5  8 - 11 3 - 6 -6 -7 F+ F C +0 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 345 @Air Force W 71 - 62 81%
 Tue, Feb 3 117 UNLV W 76 - 75 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 78 @Nevada L 66 - 76 18%
 Tue, Feb 10 40 @Utah St. L 66 - 81 8%
 Sat, Feb 14 345 Air Force W 74 - 59 93%
 Tue, Feb 17 110 @Wyoming L 69 - 75 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 50 New Mexico L 71 - 78 25%
 Tue, Feb 24 96 @Colorado St. L 66 - 74 24%
 Sat, Feb 28 64 Boise St. L 68 - 73 32%
 Tue, Mar 3 231 San Jose St. W 74 - 66 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 70 @Grand Canyon L 65 - 75 17%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +1 -3 C C- D+ +3 B- B- B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.4 1.0 0.1 4.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 5.1 3.2 0.3 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.9 8.5 7.1 1.1 0.0 18.6 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 13.1 11.9 2.4 0.0 31.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 5.3 12.8 10.8 2.4 0.1 32.1 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.1 1.4 6.5 17.1 25.8 24.0 15.5 7.0 2.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
12-8 0.4% 3.4% 3.4% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-9 2.1% 1.2% 1.2% 11.6 0.0 0.0 2.0
10-10 7.0% 0.6% 0.6% 12.5 0.0 0.0 7.0
9-11 15.5% 0.5% 0.5% 13.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 15.4
8-12 24.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.8 0.0 0.1 24.0
7-13 25.8% 0.2% 0.2% 15.8 0.0 0.0 25.8
6-14 17.1% 17.1
5-15 6.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.5
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.8 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%