Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#129
Expected Predictive Rating+7.7#80
Pace63.0#321
Improvement+0.6#127

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#159
First Shot-0.4#186
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#121
Layup/Dunks-1.5#228
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#324
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#145
Freethrows+3.6#17
Improvement-0.6#241

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#107
First Shot+2.5#101
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#230
Layups/Dunks+3.6#62
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#296
Freethrows+0.8#147
Improvement+1.2#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 4.9% 2.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.6% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.4 11.3 12.0
.500 or above 64.4% 72.2% 47.7%
.500 or above in Conference 50.8% 55.1% 41.8%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.2% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.5% 2.7% 5.1%
First Four0.7% 0.9% 0.3%
First Round3.7% 4.3% 2.5%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 35 - 48 - 14
Quad 49 - 117 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 276   LIU Brooklyn W 84-60 86%     1 - 0 +14.8 +2.0 +11.2
  Nov 15, 2021 351   Idaho W 69-62 96%     2 - 0 -10.8 -8.5 -1.9
  Nov 22, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 70-63 72%     3 - 0 +3.3 +2.1 +1.8
  Nov 24, 2021 82   Santa Clara W 59-52 34%     4 - 0 +13.7 -3.3 +18.0
  Nov 28, 2021 122   @ California L 57-65 37%     4 - 1 -2.1 -5.6 +2.8
  Dec 01, 2021 153   San Diego W 67-62 68%    
  Dec 04, 2021 271   Cal St. Northridge W 69-58 86%    
  Dec 08, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 61-71 18%    
  Dec 11, 2021 74   UC Irvine L 61-63 43%    
  Dec 17, 2021 316   Cal Poly W 69-55 91%    
  Dec 21, 2021 57   @ Utah L 62-71 22%    
  Dec 23, 2021 97   @ Weber St. L 65-71 30%    
  Dec 28, 2021 79   @ Boise St. L 60-67 25%    
  Jan 01, 2022 256   Air Force W 66-55 84%    
  Jan 05, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 56-66 17%    
  Jan 08, 2022 84   Wyoming L 67-68 46%    
  Jan 11, 2022 280   San Jose St. W 72-60 85%    
  Jan 14, 2022 147   @ UNLV L 63-65 43%    
  Jan 18, 2022 46   Utah St. L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 21, 2022 92   @ Nevada L 67-74 29%    
  Jan 25, 2022 201   @ New Mexico W 74-73 55%    
  Jan 28, 2022 79   Boise St. L 63-64 45%    
  Feb 01, 2022 280   @ San Jose St. W 69-63 70%    
  Feb 04, 2022 92   Nevada L 70-71 49%    
  Feb 11, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 65-76 16%    
  Feb 16, 2022 147   UNLV W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 19, 2022 48   San Diego St. L 59-63 35%    
  Feb 22, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 63-58 67%    
  Mar 01, 2022 201   New Mexico W 77-70 74%    
  Mar 05, 2022 84   @ Wyoming L 64-71 27%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.3 1.6 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.4 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.1 3rd
4th 0.4 2.9 4.5 1.7 0.2 9.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 6.2 2.6 0.2 13.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.0 5.9 2.8 0.3 14.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 5.2 6.8 2.9 0.2 16.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.5 5.8 2.6 0.3 14.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.7 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 4.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.6 6.8 9.4 12.7 14.1 12.9 12.5 10.0 7.6 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 99.2% 0.3    0.2 0.0
15-3 79.5% 0.8    0.4 0.3
14-4 42.8% 0.9    0.4 0.4 0.1
13-5 9.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 6.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.1% 65.6% 32.8% 32.8% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.8%
16-2 0.3% 73.3% 39.7% 33.6% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 55.7%
15-3 0.9% 50.1% 15.2% 34.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 41.1%
14-4 2.1% 31.3% 13.6% 17.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 1.4 20.5%
13-5 4.4% 16.8% 11.4% 5.4% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.7 6.1%
12-6 7.6% 9.2% 8.1% 1.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 6.9 1.2%
11-7 10.0% 4.9% 4.7% 0.2% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.5 0.2%
10-8 12.5% 1.5% 1.4% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.2%
9-9 12.9% 2.4% 2.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 12.6
8-10 14.1% 0.9% 0.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.0
7-11 12.7% 1.0% 1.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.6
6-12 9.4% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.4
5-13 6.8% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.7
4-14 3.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 4.2% 3.0% 1.2% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 95.8 1.2%