Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.6 133
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 159
Pace 71.5 102
Improvement +0.4 170

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 193 C C- C- C+ C+
Defense B- 102 B- C+ B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 140 C+ 60% 115 +1.7 111
2 Pt. Jumpers 38% 170 C 37% 203 -0.9 228
Three Pointers 42% 163 C- 33% 214 -0.1 181
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.4 134 C +0.3 160
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 148
Second Chance C- 29.5% 209 C- 1.00 211 C- 0.30 214
Turnovers C- 17.9% 251
Freethrows C 0.30 200 B 76% 72 C+ 0.23 154
Total Offense C- -1.0 193

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C+ 50% 152 C+ 9.8% 111
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 306 D+ 7.0% 302
Three Pointers C 85% 181 C 0.9% 200
Total C 55% 188 C 5.6% 185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 D 64% 321 -0.6 150
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 231 C+ 37% 136 -0.9 117
Three Pointers 47% 32 A 28% 4 -1.1 130
Shot Selection/Accuracy C -0.1 151 B- -2.5 82
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 96
Second Chance B- 28.3% 96 C- 1.08 258 C+ 0.30 160
Turnovers B 19.2% 49
Freethrows B 0.26 45 C 73% 204 B 0.19 54
Total Defense B- +2.6 102

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 36 D- 6.2% 341
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 189 C 5.0% 158
Three Pointers C 84% 179 D+ 0.5% 253
Total B- 51% 91 D- 3.3% 336

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 157 16.9 121
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 107 0.22 334
Improvement +1.4 #116 -1.0 #245

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.1 14.9
.500 or above 3% 10% 1%
.500 or above in Conference 5% 16% 1%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: New Mexico (Home) - 25.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 22 - 62 - 13
Quad 35 - 37 - 16
Quad 46 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 302 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 88% +4  72% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -13 F B+ D+ C+ +1 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 264 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 83% +10  77% 1 - 1 B+ +11 C +1 A F F A +10 A A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 137 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 62% -4  18% 1 - 2 D+ -7 C- -2 B- D+ F+ D+ -5 D- F+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 95 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 47% -4  10% 2 - 2 C+ +3 C +1 A+ D D- B- +3 C B C+
 Tue, Nov 18 98 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 48% -1  33% 3 - 2 C+ +4 A- +9 A+ B- D D -5 C F A
 Fri, Nov 21 210 New Orleans W 85 - 76 76% +4  88% 4 - 2 C+ +3 D+ -3 D+ A+ F B+ +5 B C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 276 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 79% +7  44% 5 - 2 A- +16 C- -1 B- C+ A+ A+ +18 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 331 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 92% +4  72% 5 - 3 F -19 F -12 F A+ F D- -7 C- B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 17 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 4% -15  0% 5 - 4 C- -2 F -12 F+ F+ F A+ +11 B A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 159 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 45% -4  19% 5 - 5 C +1 A +12 A+ F+ C F -11 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 125 @UNLV L 72 - 84 35% -4  18% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 D+ B+ C D -5 F F B
 Tue, Dec 30 28 Utah St. L 63 - 72 16% -7  7% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +3 F -13 D+ F D- A+ +17 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 79 Nevada L 65 - 66 40% +2  82% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +3 D -4 B B- F A- +7 B+ C+ B
 Tue, Jan 6 221 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 58% +11  97% 6 - 8 1 - 3 A- +15 C -0 C+ C+ F A+ +16 B A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 43 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 11% -15  0% 6 - 9 1 - 4 C- -4 F -15 D- F C- A+ +12 A+ F D
 Tue, Jan 13 96 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 47% +7  92% 7 - 9 2 - 4 B+ +12 A- +11 C B- A B- +3 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 104 Wyoming W 63 - 60 51% -2  17% 8 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 D+ -4 C+ F A- A +9 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 46 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 12% -11  1% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B- +6 C- -2 C+ C+ F A +9 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 24 59 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 33% -5  3% 8 - 11 3 - 6 C- -5 F+ -9 F F C B- +3 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 347 @Air Force W 79 - 62 86% +8  86% 9 - 11 4 - 6 B- +7 C- -1 C+ F B- A- +7 B B B
 Tue, Feb 3 125 UNLV W 98 - 96 58% -4  17% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C +2 B+ +8 A+ C- D+ D- -7 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 79 @Nevada L 59 - 69 21% +2  67% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C +0 D -6 F+ D+ A B +5 A+ D- D
 Tue, Feb 10 28 @Utah St. L 78 - 91 7% -10  14% 10 - 13 5 - 8 B- +5 A- +10 C A A+ D -5 C+ F D
 Sat, Feb 14 347 Air Force W 93 - 63 94% +17  98% 11 - 13 6 - 8 B+ +14 B+ +8 B- A+ B+ B +4 B- A- B+
 Tue, Feb 17 104 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 29% -2  38% 11 - 14 6 - 9 C- -3 A+ +14 B+ A+ B+ F -18 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 46 New Mexico L 73 - 80 26%
 Tue, Feb 24 96 @Colorado St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 65 Boise St. L 71 - 75 36%
 Tue, Mar 3 221 San Jose St. W 77 - 69 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 59 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 77 16%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +2 C- -1 B- C C+ B- +3 C- B C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C C- C 40% 38% 42% C+ C C- C- C- C- C B C+ B- D C+ A B- 34% 19% 47% C B- B- C- C+ B B C B
1.07 60% 37% 33% 0 0 1.03 29% 1.0 .30 18% .30 76% .23 1.05 64% 37% 28% -2 0 0.97 28% 1.1 .30 19% .26 73% .22
Nov
5		 South Carolina Upstate F F D+ F F 41% 12% 47% B- F C+ A B+ D+ A- D+ B C+ D+ F A- D- 43% 25% 32% C D- C- F+ D- A+ D- B+ D+
0.93 43% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.73 33% 1.4 .44 17% .37 68% .26 0.95 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 31% .35 65% .23
Nov
8		 Long Beach St. C A A A A 40% 9% 51% B+ A B+ F F F A+ C A+ A C+ D A+ A 30% 26% 43% C- A B A A- A F D F
1.15 71% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.28 36% 0.6 .21 22% .50 75% .38 0.87 57% 42% 20% -8 -1 0.83 22% 0.9 .19 22% .41 78% .32
Nov
12		 UC San Diego C- D B+ B- C+ 41% 18% 41% C+ B- B+ F D+ F+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B F+ 27% 10% 63% B- D- F C F+ A+ B- A+ A
1.03 50% 44% 35% -1 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28 1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11
Nov
15		 Utah Valley C A- A+ A+ A+ 45% 18% 36% B- A+ F A+ D D- A D- B B- C B- D C 50% 14% 36% C C A+ F B C+ F A+ F
1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28 1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27
Nov
18		 Stephen F. Austin A- A+ A A+ A+ 55% 21% 23% B A+ B- B- B- D B+ F C- D F+ A- B+ C+ 41% 23% 36% D- C F D- F A A+ A+ A+
1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20 1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05
Nov
21		 New Orleans D+ B F+ F D 44% 6% 50% A- D+ F+ A+ A+ F A B+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 43% 16% 41% F B B C- C+ A- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35 0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34
Nov
26		 Pepperdine C- A+ F D C+ 44% 7% 48% B B- F A+ C+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 24% 46% B- A+ F A C- A+ A A- A+
1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08 0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14
Nov
30		 Cal St. Bakersfield F C- F F F 41% 10% 49% B F B+ A+ A+ F D+ A- C+ D- F F A+ C- 34% 38% 28% B- C- A+ C- B+ F D F F
1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27 1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38
Dec
6		 Arkansas F D D+ F F 42% 12% 46% A- F+ C F F+ F C- A C+ A+ F+ B+ D C+ 26% 26% 48% A+ B A+ A+ A+ C- B+ A+ A
0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18 1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17
Dec
10		 Cal St. Northridge A B+ D A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% B+ A+ D+ F F+ C D A+ C F D- F F F 48% 11% 41% D F B A+ A+ C- A- F C-
1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23 1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22
Dec
20		 UNLV C- F C B+ D 51% 15% 34% B+ D+ B- B+ B+ C F B+ F D F F D F 42% 11% 47% D- F A+ F F B D+ F F
1.05 44% 38% 39% -5 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18 1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +2 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34
Dec
30		 Utah St. F B- D+ F D+ 33% 24% 43% C D+ D- F F D- A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B A A- 51% 12% 37% C- B+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ B D
0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31 0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27
Jan
3		 Nevada D C C- B- B- 50% 18% 32% B B B+ D B- F F A+ F+ A- B- A B+ A- 39% 22% 39% D+ B+ A+ F C+ B B+ A+ A
1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18 1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
6		 San Jose St. C C+ A+ D+ C+ 48% 17% 35% B- C+ A- F+ C+ F C D C- A+ F A+ A- B 20% 26% 54% C+ B A+ C+ A+ B- A+ B- A+
1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21 0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10
Jan
10		 San Diego St. F F D- D- D- 26% 19% 54% C D- F F F C- F A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% D A+ C+ F F D A+ C+ A+
0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12 0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14
Jan
13		 Colorado St. A- C F B C 37% 22% 41% C+ C B- B- B- A A+ A+ A+ B- F F A- B- 31% 16% 53% B- B- B- A+ A+ C- A C+ A
1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41 1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Wyoming D+ C A+ F C- 57% 12% 31% B+ C+ B+ F F A- A+ D+ A A D B+ A+ B 42% 24% 33% A- B D A+ A+ A+ A- F B-
1.04 58% 60% 23% -2 +2 1.02 32% 0.3 .09 13% .51 67% .34 0.99 63% 36% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.4 .15 23% .26 92% .24
Jan
21		 New Mexico C- D- B C C+ 29% 19% 52% C+ C+ C+ C C+ F A+ A+ A+ A C A A+ A+ 41% 11% 48% C A+ B- F F D A A+ A+
0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39 1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13
Jan
24		 Grand Canyon F+ F C F F 29% 27% 44% C- F D+ F F C A+ B A+ B- D+ B- A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ F F+ F C F C F
0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -1 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37 1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34
Jan
31		 Air Force C- C B B+ B- 28% 20% 52% C- C+ F+ F+ F B- D D- D- A- B A+ C B 40% 15% 45% C B C+ A B B A+ F+ A
1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18 0.87 52% 13% 33% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 UNLV B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A+ F+ A C- D+ A+ C+ A+ D- F F D F 32% 23% 45% B+ F F B+ C- A+ F C F
1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50 1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41
Feb
7		 Nevada D F C+ F F+ 27% 20% 53% D+ F+ F A+ D+ A D+ B- C- B C+ A- A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ C+ F D- D F+ C D-
0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22 1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34
Feb
10		 Utah St. A- A- F D+ C 33% 23% 44% C C B+ B+ A A+ A- A- A D C+ A+ D- B- 37% 6% 57% C- C+ B+ F F D C+ F+ C-
1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30 1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25
Feb
14		 Air Force B+ A A+ D- B 28% 28% 43% D- B- C- A+ A+ B+ A+ C+ A+ B F+ A- B- C 24% 22% 53% A+ B- B+ A A- B+ B- F D+
1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34 0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22
Feb
17		 Wyoming A+ C+ F+ A+ A- 47% 21% 32% C- B+ A A+ A+ B+ B C+ B F C+ F F F 38% 12% 50% C F D F F D A+ D- A+
1.26 59% 30% 47% +5 +1 1.13 35% 1.2 .42 14% .43 71% .30 1.41 55% 83% 42% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.5 .60 14% .20 82% .16



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.3 5th
6th 0.9 2.6 0.3 3.7 6th
7th 0.4 6.0 1.7 8.1 7th
8th 0.1 7.1 8.6 0.2 16.1 8th
9th 0.9 14.8 24.5 2.8 0.0 43.0 9th
10th 6.8 17.5 4.5 0.0 28.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 7.7 32.4 36.5 18.3 4.6 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.5% 1.1% 1.1% 11.0 0.0 0.4
10-10 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 4.6
9-11 18.3% 0.4% 0.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.3
8-12 36.5% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7 0.0 0.0 36.4
7-13 32.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 32.4
6-14 7.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.7
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.0 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.3%