Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#169
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#208
Pace60.4#348
Improvement-0.2#210

Offense
Total Offense-3.0#270
First Shot-2.3#259
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#230
Layup/Dunks+0.4#153
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#254
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#195
Freethrows-1.4#290
Improvement+0.1#166

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#92
First Shot+2.6#95
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#141
Layups/Dunks+4.5#32
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#301
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#210
Freethrows+0.1#183
Improvement-0.3#235
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.2% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.1% 4.5% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 31.0% 12.9% 34.9%
First Four0.7% 1.0% 0.6%
First Round0.5% 0.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNLV (Away) - 17.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 53 - 11
Quad 32 - 76 - 18
Quad 44 - 19 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 101   UC Santa Barbara L 54-61 33%     0 - 1 -2.4 -9.0 +5.7
  Nov 16, 2022 88   San Francisco L 60-67 39%     0 - 2 -4.1 -11.1 +6.9
  Nov 19, 2022 80   @ North Texas L 52-61 19%     0 - 3 +0.3 -3.8 +2.4
  Nov 23, 2022 102   Washington L 57-62 34%     0 - 4 -0.7 -12.7 +12.0
  Nov 24, 2022 97   Vanderbilt L 59-67 32%     0 - 5 -3.1 -8.8 +5.1
  Dec 03, 2022 100   @ UC Irvine W 80-66 24%     1 - 5 +21.3 +14.7 +7.3
  Dec 07, 2022 328   Cal St. Northridge W 65-56 87%     2 - 5 -3.2 -3.9 +1.8
  Dec 10, 2022 208   @ Pacific L 72-76 47%     2 - 6 -3.1 +2.5 -5.8
  Dec 17, 2022 219   Sacramento St. L 53-59 69%     2 - 7 -11.2 -15.8 +3.8
  Dec 20, 2022 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 56-48 70%     3 - 7 +2.7 -1.8 +6.7
  Dec 28, 2022 139   Wyoming W 58-53 54%     4 - 7 1 - 0 +3.9 -7.1 +12.0
  Dec 31, 2022 47   @ Utah St. L 54-67 12%     4 - 8 1 - 1 -0.3 -12.7 +11.7
  Jan 03, 2023 54   New Mexico W 71-67 26%     5 - 8 2 - 1 +10.8 +0.2 +10.6
  Jan 07, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. L 57-79 28%     5 - 9 2 - 2 -15.9 -7.3 -11.6
  Jan 10, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. L 64-74 30%     5 - 10 2 - 3 -4.6 +1.3 -7.3
  Jan 14, 2023 168   Air Force L 48-51 60%     5 - 11 2 - 4 -5.7 -15.3 +8.9
  Jan 21, 2023 76   UNLV W 76-63 34%     6 - 11 3 - 4 +17.2 +17.8 +1.4
  Jan 24, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 53-63 10%     6 - 12 3 - 5 +4.5 -8.4 +12.7
  Jan 28, 2023 47   Utah St. L 53-70 24%     6 - 13 3 - 6 -9.7 -10.5 -2.2
  Jan 31, 2023 139   @ Wyoming L 62-85 34%     6 - 14 3 - 7 -18.6 -7.3 -12.6
  Feb 03, 2023 76   @ UNLV L 59-69 18%    
  Feb 07, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 61-60 51%    
  Feb 10, 2023 59   @ Nevada L 57-69 13%    
  Feb 15, 2023 33   San Diego St. L 58-67 20%    
  Feb 18, 2023 113   Colorado St. L 64-65 49%    
  Feb 21, 2023 168   @ Air Force L 58-61 39%    
  Feb 24, 2023 59   Nevada L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 28, 2023 54   @ New Mexico L 62-74 12%    
  Mar 04, 2023 317   Chicago St. W 69-58 85%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 2.2 0.7 0.0 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 4.0 6.4 1.9 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.1 4.9 13.2 4.0 0.2 22.4 8th
9th 0.0 3.2 14.9 6.0 0.2 0.0 24.5 9th
10th 1.5 11.5 8.5 0.6 22.2 10th
11th 5.5 6.8 1.0 0.0 13.3 11th
Total 7.1 21.6 29.4 23.9 12.4 4.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
9-9 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-10 4.4% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 4.4
7-11 12.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 12.2
6-12 23.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.2 23.8
5-13 29.4% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 29.3
4-14 21.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 21.5
3-15 7.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.4%