Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.1 144
Expected Predictive Rating +0.0 162
Pace 71.7 99
Improvement +1.1 141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- #229 C D+ D+ C C+
Defense B- #81 B- C+ B B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 130 60% 134 +1.8 116
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 231 38% 179 -1.1 239
Three Pointers 42% 159 33% 216 +0.0 179
1st FG Attempt 1.03 154 +0.7 154
Second Chance 28.8% 231 0.94 294 0.27 267
Turnovers 18.6% 287
Freethrows 0.30 208 75% 78 0.23 166
Total Offense -2.3 229

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 290 64% 329 -0.1 182
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 234 37% 141 +0.9 113
Three Pointers 46% 39 26% 2 +2.4 85
1st FG Attempt 0.95 76 +3.3 73
Second Chance 28.3% 93 1.03 188 0.29 119
Turnovers 19.7% 42
Freethrows 0.27 57 71% 136 0.19 60
Total Defense +3.4 81

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.5 113 +0.0 166
Shot Type Accuracy +0.1 173 -3.1 57
Possession Length 17.3 170 16.9 121
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 99 0.22 330
Improvement -0.5 #223 +1.6 #100

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 12.8 13.8
.500 or above 7.9% 25.7% 6.8%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 38.4% 10.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah St. (Away) - 6.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 22 - 62 - 12
Quad 35 - 37 - 16
Quad 47 - 214 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 298 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 87% +4  72% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -14 F B+ D+ C+ +2 D D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 251 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 81% +10  77% 1 - 1 B+ +12 C +1 A+ F F A +11 A A- A
 Wed, Nov 12 139 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 61% -4  18% 1 - 2 D+ -7 D+ -3 C+ D F+ D+ -4 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 94 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 45% -4  10% 2 - 2 C+ +3 C +1 A+ D F+ B- +3 C B+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 104 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 49% -1  33% 3 - 2 C+ +3 B+ +9 A+ B- D D -5 C F A-
 Fri, Nov 21 224 New Orleans W 85 - 76 76% +4  88% 4 - 2 C+ +3 D -4 D+ A+ F B +6 B+ C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 291 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 79% +7  44% 5 - 2 A- +15 C +0 B C+ A+ A+ +16 A+ D+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 324 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 90% +4  72% 5 - 3 F -18 F -11 F A+ F D -7 C A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 21 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 5% -15  0% 5 - 4 C- -4 F -13 F F+ F A +10 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 10 186 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 49% -4  19% 5 - 5 C -1 A- +11 A+ F C F -11 F A C-
 Sat, Dec 20 127 @UNLV L 72 - 84 34% -4  18% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -7 C- -1 D+ B+ C+ D -6 F F B
 Tue, Dec 30 36 Utah St. L 63 - 72 17% -7  7% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 F -13 D F D A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 67 Nevada L 65 - 66 34% +2  82% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +4 D+ -4 B B- F A- +8 A- B- B
 Tue, Jan 6 237 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 59% +11  97% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B+ +14 C +0 C+ C+ F A+ +15 B- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 10 43 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 10% -15  0% 6 - 9 1 - 4 C- -4 F -16 D- F C- A+ +13 A+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 103 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 48% +7  92% 7 - 9 2 - 4 B+ +12 A +12 C+ B- A C+ +1 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 105 Wyoming W 63 - 60 49% -2  17% 8 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 D+ -3 C+ F A- A- +8 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 50 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 12% -11  1% 8 - 10 3 - 5 C+ +5 D+ -3 C+ C+ F A- +9 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 63 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 33% -5  3% 8 - 11 3 - 6 D+ -6 F+ -9 F F C B- +3 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 31 350 @Air Force W 79 - 62 84% +8  86% 9 - 11 4 - 6 B- +8 C +0 B- F B- B+ +7 B- B+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 127 UNLV W 98 - 96 57% -4  17% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C +1 B+ +9 A+ C- C- D- -8 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 67 @Nevada L 59 - 69 17% +2  67% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C +1 D -6 F+ C- A B +6 A+ D D+
 Tue, Feb 10 36 @Utah St. L 66 - 82 6%
 Sat, Feb 14 350 Air Force W 76 - 60 94%
 Tue, Feb 17 105 @Wyoming L 70 - 76 28%
 Sat, Feb 21 50 New Mexico L 73 - 80 26%
 Tue, Feb 24 103 @Colorado St. L 66 - 73 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 58 Boise St. L 70 - 75 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 237 San Jose St. W 74 - 66 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 63 @Grand Canyon L 65 - 75 17%
Totals 13 - 17 8 - 12 +1 C- -2 C D+ D+ B- +3 B- C+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C+ C C- C 40% 18% 42% C+ C C- D+ D+ D+ C- B- C B- D- C+ A+ B 35% 19% 46% C B- B- C C+ B B C+ B
1.05 60% 38% 33% 0 0 1.03 29% 0.9 .27 19% .30 75% .23 1.04 64% 37% 26% -3 0 0.95 28% 1.0 .29 20% .27 71% .21
Nov
5		 South Carolina Upstate F F D+ F F 41% 12% 47% B- F C A+ B+ D+ A- D B C+ C- F A- D- 43% 25% 32% C D D+ F D- A+ D- B D
0.93 43% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.73 33% 1.4 .44 17% .37 68% .26 0.95 58% 55% 29% +2 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 31% .35 65% .23
Nov
8		 Long Beach St. C A A A A+ 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ A- F F F A+ C A+ A B- D A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% C- A B+ A- A- A F D F
1.15 71% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.28 36% 0.6 .21 22% .50 75% .38 0.87 57% 42% 20% -8 -1 0.83 22% 0.9 .19 22% .41 78% .32
Nov
12		 UC San Diego D+ D B+ B- C+ 41% 18% 41% B- C+ B+ F D F+ A A- A+ D+ F F B F+ 27% 10% 63% B- D- F C D- A+ B- A+ A
1.03 50% 44% 35% -1 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28 1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11
Nov
15		 Utah Valley C A- A+ A+ A+ 45% 18% 36% B- A+ F A+ D F+ A- D- B B- C B- D C 50% 14% 36% C C A+ F B+ C+ F A+ F+
1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28 1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27
Nov
18		 Stephen F. Austin B+ A A A+ A+ 55% 21% 23% B A+ B- C+ B- D B+ F C- D F+ A- B+ C+ 41% 23% 36% D- C F D F A- A+ A+ A+
1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20 1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05
Nov
21		 New Orleans D B F+ F D 44% 6% 50% A- D+ F+ A+ A+ F A B+ A+ B F A+ A+ A- 43% 16% 41% F+ B+ B C- C+ A- F A+ F+
1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35 0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34
Nov
26		 Pepperdine C A+ F D+ B- 44% 7% 48% B B F A+ C+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 24% 46% B- A+ F A- D+ A+ A A A+
1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08 0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14
Nov
30		 Cal St. Bakersfield F C F F F 41% 10% 49% B F B+ A+ A+ F C- A- C+ D F F A+ C- 34% 38% 28% B C A+ C- A- F D F F
1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27 1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38
Dec
6		 Arkansas F D D+ F F 42% 12% 46% A- F C+ F F+ F C- A C+ A F+ B D C+ 26% 26% 48% A B- A+ A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18 1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17
Dec
10		 Cal St. Northridge A- B D A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% B A+ D+ F F C D A+ C F D- F F F 48% 11% 41% D F B A+ A C- A- F C-
1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23 1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22
Dec
20		 UNLV C- F C A- D 51% 15% 34% B+ D+ B- B+ B+ C+ F B+ F D F F D F 42% 11% 47% D- F A+ F F B C- F F
1.05 44% 38% 39% -4 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18 1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +1 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34
Dec
30		 Utah St. F B- D+ F D 33% 24% 43% C D D F F D A- A+ A+ A+ D+ B A B+ 51% 12% 37% C- B+ A A+ A+ A+ F+ B D
0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31 0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27
Jan
3		 Nevada D+ C C B B- 50% 18% 32% B B B+ D+ B- F F A+ D- A- C+ A B+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ A- A F B- B B A+ A
1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18 1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
6		 San Jose St. C C+ A+ D+ C 48% 17% 35% C+ C+ A- F+ C+ F C+ D C A+ F A+ B+ B- 20% 26% 54% B- B- A+ C A+ B- A+ B- A+
1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21 0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10
Jan
10		 San Diego St. F F D- D- D- 26% 19% 54% C- D- F F F C- F A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% D A+ C+ F F D+ A+ C A+
0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12 0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14
Jan
13		 Colorado St. A C F+ B C+ 37% 22% 41% C+ C+ B- C+ B- A A+ A+ A+ C+ F F A- B- 31% 16% 53% B- B- B- A+ A+ C- A- C+ A-
1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41 1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Wyoming D+ C A+ F C 57% 12% 31% B+ C+ B+ F F A- A+ D+ A A- D B+ A B- 42% 24% 33% A- B D A+ A+ A+ A F B-
1.04 58% 60% 23% -2 +2 1.02 32% 0.3 .09 13% .51 67% .34 0.99 63% 36% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.4 .15 23% .26 92% .24
Jan
21		 New Mexico D+ D- B C C 29% 19% 52% C+ C+ C+ C C+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C A A+ A+ 41% 11% 48% C A+ B- F F D+ A A+ A+
0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39 1.05 58% 29% 23% -9 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13
Jan
24		 Grand Canyon F+ F C F F 29% 27% 44% D+ F D+ F F C A+ B A+ B- D+ C+ A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ F F F C F C F
0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -2 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37 1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34
Jan
31		 Air Force C C B+ A- B 28% 20% 52% D+ B- F+ F+ F B- D+ D- D B+ B A+ C B- 40% 15% 45% C B- C+ A B+ B A+ D- A-
1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18 0.87 52% 13% 33% -6 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 UNLV B+ A+ C A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A+ F+ A C- C- A+ C+ A+ D- F F D F 32% 23% 45% B+ F F B C- A+ F C F
1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50 1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41
Feb
7		 Nevada D F C+ F F+ 27% 20% 53% D+ F+ F A+ C- A D+ B C- B C+ A- A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ C+ F D D+ F+ C+ F+
0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22 1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 1.3 0.0 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 2.4 10.1 6.1 0.5 0.0 19.1 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 14.9 10.5 1.0 28.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 12.0 14.0 1.4 0.0 28.3 9th
10th 0.4 6.1 11.4 1.9 0.0 19.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 7.1 25.1 33.2 22.3 9.2 2.3 0.3 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.3
11-9 2.3% 0.2% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 2.3
10-10 9.2% 0.6% 0.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1
9-11 22.3% 0.2% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 22.3
8-12 33.2% 0.2% 0.2% 15.0 0.1 33.1
7-13 25.1% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 25.0
6-14 7.1% 7.1
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.7 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%