Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +1.7 133
Results Rating -0.5 165
Consistency 0.12 34
Pace 70.5 122
Improvement -0.2 197

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 188 C C- C- C C
Defense B- 98 B- C B B C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 157 C+ 61% 105 +1.5 121
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 152 C 39% 157 -0.2 187
Three Pointers 41% 178 C- 33% 224 -0.6 203
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.2 176 C +0.5 150
1st FG Attempt C 1.03 147
Second Chance C 29.7% 196 C- 0.98 263 C- 0.29 221
Opponents' Steals C- 10.0% 245
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 241
Turnovers C- 17.7% 251
Freethrows C- 0.29 233 B- 75% 84 C 0.22 194
Total Offense C -1.0 188

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 164 B- 9.5% 96
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 16% 314 D+ 6.5% 278
Three Pointers C 85% 181 C- 1.0% 226
Total C- 54% 204 C 5.4% 169


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 309 D 63% 315 -1.2 128
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 202 C 39% 202 -0.3 166
Three Pointers 47% 32 A 28% 3 -1.2 136
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ -0.2 124 B- -2.4 80
1st FG Attempt B- 0.97 92
Second Chance C+ 28.7% 111 C- 1.06 230 C 0.30 159
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 118
Other Turnovers B+ 8.6% 43
Turnovers B 18.9% 64
Freethrows B+ 0.25 30 C- 73% 216 B 0.18 43
Total Defense B- +2.7 98

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B+ 40% 33 D- 6.5% 338
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 22% 129 C+ 5.4% 125
Three Pointers C+ 82% 134 D+ 0.5% 266
Total B 50% 67 D- 3.5% 331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.2 156 17.1 151
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.21 311
Consistency 0.12 183 0.12 196
Improvement +1.3 126 -1.4 263

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 153 136 121
Results Rating Rank 204 167 142
Conference Record 6 - 14 7 - 13 8 - 12
Conference Finish 10 10 9
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.6 15.7
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 78.1% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 7
Quad 21 - 71 - 13
Quad 35 - 36 - 17
Quad 47 - 212 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 302 South Carolina Upstate L 66 - 67 88% +4  72% 0 - 1 D- -12 F -13 F B+ D+ C+ +1 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 268 Long Beach St. W 82 - 62 84% +10  77% 1 - 1 B +11 C +0 A+ F F A +10 A B+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 131 UC San Diego L 73 - 78 61% -4  18% 1 - 2 D+ -6 C- -2 C+ D+ F+ D+ -4 D- D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 97 Utah Valley W 75 - 74 47% -4  10% 2 - 2 C+ +4 C +1 A+ D F+ B- +2 C B- C+
 Tue, Nov 18 100 Stephen F. Austin W 80 - 78 50% -1  33% 3 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ B- D D+ -5 C F A
 Fri, Nov 21 199 New Orleans W 85 - 76 75% +4  88% 4 - 2 C+ +4 D+ -2 C- A+ F B+ +5 B C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 26 271 Pepperdine W 76 - 53 77% +7  44% 5 - 2 A- +17 C- -1 B- C+ A+ A+ +19 A+ C- A+
 Sun, Nov 30 329 Cal St. Bakersfield L 71 - 76 92% +4  72% 5 - 3 F -19 F -13 F A+ F D -6 C B+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 19 @Arkansas L 58 - 82 5% -15  0% 5 - 4 C- -3 F -13 F D- F A+ +11 B- A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 10 168 @Cal St. Northridge L 87 - 89 48% -4  19% 5 - 5 C +0 A +12 A+ F C F -11 F A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 116 @UNLV L 72 - 84 34% -4  18% 5 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 C- -2 D+ B+ C+ D+ -5 F F B+
 Tue, Dec 30 32 Utah St. L 63 - 72 19% -7  7% 5 - 7 0 - 2 C+ +2 F -14 D F D- A+ +17 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 76 Nevada L 65 - 66 39% +2  82% 5 - 8 0 - 3 C+ +4 D+ -3 B B- F A- +7 B+ C+ B-
 Tue, Jan 6 221 @San Jose St. W 70 - 55 59% +11  97% 6 - 8 1 - 3 B+ +14 C- -1 C C+ F A+ +17 B A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 45 @San Diego St. L 52 - 71 11% -15  0% 6 - 9 1 - 4 C- -4 F -16 D- F D+ A+ +13 A+ F D+
 Tue, Jan 13 93 Colorado St. W 79 - 69 45% +7  92% 7 - 9 2 - 4 B+ +13 A- +11 C B A B- +3 B A+ C
 Sat, Jan 17 102 Wyoming W 63 - 60 51% -2  17% 8 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +4 D+ -3 C+ F A- A- +8 B A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 51 @New Mexico L 74 - 83 13% -11  1% 8 - 10 3 - 5 B- +5 C- -2 C C+ F A- +8 A+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 62 Grand Canyon L 57 - 68 34% -5  3% 8 - 11 3 - 6 D+ -5 F+ -9 F F C- B- +3 A+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 31 344 @Air Force W 79 - 62 86% +8  86% 9 - 11 4 - 6 B- +7 C- -1 C+ F C+ A- +8 B B+ B
 Tue, Feb 3 116 UNLV W 98 - 96 57% -4  17% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C+ +2 B+ +8 A+ C- C- D- -7 F C- A+
 Sat, Feb 7 76 @Nevada L 59 - 69 20% +2  67% 10 - 12 5 - 7 C +1 D -5 F+ C- A B +5 A+ D- D-
 Tue, Feb 10 32 @Utah St. L 78 - 91 8% -10  14% 10 - 13 5 - 8 C+ +4 B+ +9 C- A- A+ D -5 B- F D+
 Sat, Feb 14 344 Air Force W 93 - 63 94% +17  98% 11 - 13 6 - 8 B+ +14 B+ +8 B- A+ B B +5 B- A B+
 Tue, Feb 17 102 @Wyoming L 82 - 92 29% -2  38% 11 - 14 6 - 9 C- -3 A+ +15 B+ A+ B+ F -19 F F D
 Sat, Feb 21 51 New Mexico L 78 - 80 27% +8  76% 11 - 15 6 - 10 B- +6 A- +10 A+ B- B+ D+ -4 C- B+ D+
 Tue, Feb 24 93 @Colorado St. L 70 - 74 24% +4  72% 11 - 16 6 - 11 B- +5 C- -1 C+ D D- B+ +6 A F+ D+
 Sat, Feb 28 61 Boise St. L 53 - 69 34% -7  3% 11 - 17 6 - 12 D -10 F -11 D- F+ B C -1 C+ B+ C
 Tue, Mar 3 221 San Jose St. W 77 - 69 78%
 Sat, Mar 7 62 @Grand Canyon L 66 - 76 17%
Totals 12 - 18 7 - 13 +2 C -1 B- C C B- +3 C- B- C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ C C- C 39% 40% 41% C C C C- C- C- C- B- C B- D C A B- 34% 20% 47% C+ B- C+ C- C B B+ C- B
1.07 61% 39% 33% 0 0 1.03 30% 1.0 .29 18% .29 75% .22 1.05 63% 39% 28% -2 0 0.97 29% 1.1 .30 19% .25 73% .21
Nov
5		 South Carolina Upstate F F D+ F F 41% 12% 47% B- F C+ A- B+ D+ A D+ B+ C+ C- F A- F+ 43% 25% 32% C+ D- C- F D- A+ F+ B+ D
0.93 43% 33% 21% -16 +1 0.73 33% 1.4 .44 17% .37 68% .26 0.95 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.05 30% 1.1 .33 31% .35 65% .23
Nov
8		 Long Beach St. C A A A A 40% 9% 51% B+ A+ B+ F F F A+ C A+ A B- D A+ A+ 30% 26% 43% C- A B A B+ A F D- F
1.15 71% 50% 41% +11 +2 1.28 36% 0.6 .21 22% .50 75% .38 0.87 57% 42% 20% -8 -1 0.83 22% 0.9 .19 22% .41 78% .32
Nov
12		 UC San Diego C- D B+ B- C+ 41% 18% 41% C+ C+ B+ F D+ F+ A+ A- A+ D+ F F B+ F+ 27% 10% 63% B- D- F C D- A+ B- A+ A
1.03 50% 44% 35% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.7 .24 20% .37 76% .28 1.10 86% 60% 30% +6 +1 1.15 34% 1.0 .34 25% .24 46% .11
Nov
15		 Utah Valley C A- A+ A+ A+ 45% 18% 36% B- A+ F A+ D F+ A D- B B- C B- D C- 50% 14% 36% C C A+ F B- C+ F A+ F
1.06 65% 50% 44% +11 +1 1.25 12% 2.0 .24 24% .41 68% .28 1.04 59% 33% 38% +2 +2 1.09 22% 1.6 .34 21% .50 54% .27
Nov
18		 Stephen F. Austin B+ A A A+ A+ 55% 21% 23% B A+ B- C B- D A- F C- D+ F+ A- B+ C+ 41% 23% 36% D- C F D F A A+ A+ A+
1.18 69% 50% 45% +13 +1 1.30 32% 1.1 .36 19% .35 58% .20 1.15 65% 31% 30% -1 0 1.00 45% 1.1 .50 18% .11 50% .05
Nov
21		 New Orleans D+ B F+ F D 44% 6% 50% A- C- F+ A+ A+ F A B+ A+ B+ F A+ A+ A- 43% 16% 41% F B B D+ C+ A- F A+ F
1.10 62% 33% 25% -5 +2 0.96 27% 2.0 .55 19% .45 79% .35 0.98 68% 25% 19% -7 +1 0.90 31% 1.1 .33 23% .52 65% .34
Nov
26		 Pepperdine C- A+ F D B- 44% 7% 48% B B- F A+ C+ A+ F F F A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 30% 24% 46% B A+ F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+
1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08 0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14
Nov
30		 Cal St. Bakersfield F C- F F F 41% 10% 49% B+ F A- A+ A+ F D+ A- C D F F A+ C- 34% 38% 28% B- C A C- B+ F D+ F F
1.00 57% 0% 16% -17 +2 0.71 44% 1.3 .58 22% .34 79% .27 1.07 67% 50% 7% -4 -3 0.89 23% 1.0 .23 14% .39 96% .38
Dec
6		 Arkansas F D D+ F F 42% 12% 46% A- F C+ F D- F C- A C A+ F+ B D- C+ 26% 26% 48% A+ B- A+ A+ A+ C- A- A+ A
0.79 50% 33% 17% -16 +1 0.73 29% 0.8 .24 23% .23 77% .18 1.12 73% 33% 39% +7 -2 1.12 26% 1.0 .26 11% .26 65% .17
Dec
10		 Cal St. Northridge A B+ D A+ A+ 37% 11% 52% B A+ D F F C D A+ C+ F D- F F F 48% 11% 41% D F B A+ A+ C- A- F D+
1.22 65% 33% 46% +12 +1 1.28 23% 0.9 .20 15% .27 88% .23 1.25 65% 67% 45% +14 +2 1.33 29% 0.6 .18 17% .24 93% .22
Dec
20		 UNLV C- F C B+ D 51% 15% 34% B+ D+ B- B+ B+ C+ F B+ F D+ F F D F 42% 11% 47% D- F A+ F F B+ D+ F F
1.05 44% 38% 39% -5 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18 1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +2 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34
Dec
30		 Utah St. F B- D+ F D- 33% 24% 43% C- D D- F F D- A- A+ A+ A+ C- B- A+ A- 51% 12% 37% C- B+ A- A+ A+ A+ F+ B- D-
0.83 59% 33% 23% -8 -1 0.84 24% 0.2 .05 24% .38 82% .31 0.95 64% 33% 28% -1 +2 1.04 29% 0.7 .21 26% .39 68% .27
Jan
3		 Nevada D+ C C- B- B- 50% 18% 32% B B B+ D+ B- F F A+ D- A- B- A B+ A 39% 22% 39% D+ B+ A+ F C+ B- B+ A+ A
1.00 55% 38% 36% -1 +1 1.02 33% 1.1 .37 23% .22 82% .18 1.02 53% 27% 32% -6 0 0.90 26% 1.3 .34 15% .33 67% .22
Jan
6		 San Jose St. C- C+ A D+ C 48% 17% 35% C+ C A- F+ C+ F C D C- A+ F A+ A- B 20% 26% 54% C+ B A+ B- A+ B A+ B A+
1.10 64% 50% 31% +3 +1 1.11 42% 1.0 .42 25% .29 71% .21 0.87 100% 8% 30% -3 -2 0.92 18% 1.0 .18 17% .13 71% .10
Jan
10		 San Diego St. F F D- D- D- 26% 19% 54% C D- F F F D+ F A+ F A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 34% 20% 46% D A+ B- F F D+ A+ C+ A+
0.70 40% 27% 29% -11 -1 0.79 13% 0.0 .00 23% .12 100% .12 0.96 60% 25% 15% -15 0 0.71 30% 1.8 .53 15% .19 75% .14
Jan
13		 Colorado St. A- C F B C 37% 22% 41% C+ C B- B- B A A+ A+ A+ B- F F A- B 31% 16% 53% B- B C+ A+ A+ C A+ B- A+
1.26 59% 30% 37% 0 0 1.02 30% 1.2 .37 11% .43 96% .41 1.10 73% 50% 31% +4 0 1.10 30% 0.6 .18 18% .23 75% .17
Jan
17		 Wyoming D+ C A+ F C 57% 12% 31% A- C+ B+ F F A- A+ D+ A A- D B+ A B- 42% 24% 33% A B D A+ A+ A+ A- F C+
1.04 58% 60% 23% -2 +2 1.02 32% 0.3 .09 13% .51 67% .34 0.99 63% 36% 27% -2 0 0.98 39% 0.4 .15 23% .26 92% .24
Jan
21		 New Mexico C- D- B- C C 29% 19% 52% C+ C C+ C+ C+ F A+ A+ A+ A- C A A+ A+ 41% 11% 48% C A+ B- F F D+ A A+ A+
0.94 50% 44% 32% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.0 .28 28% .46 85% .39 1.05 58% 29% 23% -10 +1 0.86 28% 1.5 .43 13% .22 60% .13
Jan
24		 Grand Canyon F+ F C F F 29% 27% 44% D+ F C- F F C- A+ B+ A+ B- D+ B- A+ A+ 36% 20% 44% B- A+ F F+ F C- F C F
0.86 43% 38% 19% -14 -1 0.71 23% 0.4 .10 18% .48 77% .37 1.03 63% 33% 10% -15 0 0.71 41% 1.2 .51 17% .45 76% .34
Jan
31		 Air Force C- C B B+ B- 28% 20% 52% C- C+ F+ F F C+ D+ F+ D A- B A+ C B 40% 15% 45% C B B- A B+ B A+ F+ A-
1.11 60% 45% 39% +6 -1 1.13 22% 0.9 .19 14% .28 65% .18 0.87 52% 13% 33% -7 +1 0.91 21% 0.9 .18 24% .18 70% .13
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 UNLV B+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 30% 41% 30% F A+ F+ A C- C- A+ C+ A+ D- F F D F 32% 23% 45% B+ F F A- C- A+ F C F
1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50 1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41
Feb
7		 Nevada D F C+ F F+ 27% 20% 53% D+ F+ F A+ C- A D+ B C- B B- A- A+ A+ 35% 21% 44% D+ A+ C+ F D- D- F+ C D-
0.93 38% 40% 27% -10 -1 0.80 14% 2.0 .29 13% .29 75% .22 1.09 53% 30% 19% -13 0 0.75 33% 1.3 .44 11% .44 76% .34
Feb
10		 Utah St. B+ A- F D C- 33% 23% 44% C- C- B+ B+ A- A+ A- A- A D C+ A+ D B- 37% 6% 57% C- B- B+ F F D+ C+ F D+
1.11 65% 17% 30% -5 -1 0.90 38% 1.1 .43 14% .38 78% .30 1.30 60% 0% 39% +3 +2 1.11 31% 2.0 .63 13% .31 79% .25
Feb
14		 Air Force B+ A A+ D- B 28% 28% 43% D- B- C A+ A+ B A+ C A+ B F+ B+ B C 24% 22% 53% A+ B- B+ A+ A B+ B- F D
1.28 73% 60% 30% +8 -2 1.15 29% 1.9 .55 12% .48 71% .34 0.86 67% 27% 31% -3 -1 0.94 18% 0.8 .15 25% .27 80% .22
Feb
17		 Wyoming A+ C+ F+ A+ A- 47% 21% 32% C- B+ A A A+ B+ B C+ B+ F C+ F F F 38% 12% 50% C F D- F F D A+ D- A+
1.26 59% 30% 47% +5 +1 1.13 35% 1.2 .42 14% .43 71% .30 1.41 55% 83% 42% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.5 .60 14% .20 82% .16
Feb
21		 New Mexico A- A+ A C A+ 37% 22% 41% C+ A+ B+ D+ B- B+ F F F D+ C+ F F C- 55% 15% 31% D+ C- B B+ B+ D+ A F B+
1.16 75% 50% 32% +8 0 1.17 33% 0.9 .30 16% .16 56% .09 1.19 57% 50% 41% +4 +2 1.15 27% 0.9 .23 13% .22 85% .19
Feb
24		 Colorado St. C- D B A B 25% 35% 39% F C+ C- D- D D- F B F+ B+ D D+ B+ A- 24% 24% 51% A+ A C F F+ D+ B- C+ B-
1.05 54% 44% 40% +5 -3 1.06 25% 1.0 .25 18% .20 73% .15 1.11 67% 42% 32% +1 -1 1.02 32% 1.4 .44 17% .31 76% .23
Feb
28		 Boise St. F A B+ F D+ 20% 45% 35% F D- C F F+ B F D+ F C D- F+ C C- 18% 22% 59% A+ C+ F A+ B+ C A+ B A+
0.88 70% 45% 18% -3 -4 0.88 21% 0.6 .12 13% .17 67% .12 1.15 67% 45% 34% +4 -2 1.06 43% 0.6 .28 15% .16 75% .12



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 11.4 8.7 20.1 9th
10th 18.6 56.5 4.8 79.9 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 18.6 67.9 13.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 13.5% 0.1% 0.1% 14.5 0.0 0.0 13.5
7-13 67.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.7 0.1 0.1 67.8
6-14 18.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 18.6
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 99.8 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.6%
Lose Out 12.5%