Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#46
Expected Predictive Rating+12.4#44
Pace69.1#190
Improvement+2.4#32

Offense
Total Offense+5.5#40
First Shot+8.0#12
After Offensive Rebound-2.5#314
Layup/Dunks+2.4#91
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#20
Freethrows+0.3#160
Improvement+1.1#72

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#67
First Shot+3.8#64
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#148
Layups/Dunks+6.2#20
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#205
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#279
Freethrows+0.3#168
Improvement+1.3#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.1% 1.8% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 4.0% 5.8% 1.6%
Top 6 Seed 9.9% 13.6% 4.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.9% 66.1% 44.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 45.4% 55.8% 32.2%
Average Seed 8.8 8.5 9.4
.500 or above 97.8% 99.1% 96.0%
.500 or above in Conference 93.3% 94.7% 91.4%
Conference Champion 28.3% 32.5% 22.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.1% 8.9% 7.0%
First Round52.4% 61.2% 40.2%
Second Round25.7% 31.6% 17.5%
Sweet Sixteen8.2% 10.3% 5.2%
Elite Eight3.1% 4.3% 1.5%
Final Four1.1% 1.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: St. Mary's (Home) - 57.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 4
Quad 25 - 38 - 7
Quad 37 - 115 - 9
Quad 47 - 122 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 212   UC Davis L 69-72 91%     0 - 1 -8.1 -10.9 +3.0
  Nov 12, 2021 83   Richmond W 85-74 62%     1 - 1 +17.6 +18.7 -0.3
  Nov 18, 2021 189   Penn W 87-79 2OT 85%     2 - 1 +6.7 +1.2 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2021 102   New Mexico St. W 85-58 70%     3 - 1 +31.3 +20.5 +13.5
  Nov 21, 2021 35   Oklahoma W 73-70 42%     4 - 1 +14.7 +7.3 +7.4
  Nov 27, 2021 234   Texas Arlington W 80-61 93%     5 - 1 +12.4 +6.7 +5.8
  Dec 02, 2021 41   St. Mary's W 65-63 58%    
  Dec 08, 2021 20   @ BYU L 68-76 24%    
  Dec 11, 2021 285   New Orleans W 87-68 96%    
  Dec 15, 2021 97   @ Weber St. W 73-72 54%    
  Dec 18, 2021 19   Iowa L 77-82 34%    
  Dec 21, 2021 269   Portland St. W 80-61 96%    
  Dec 28, 2021 256   @ Air Force W 70-58 87%    
  Jan 01, 2022 280   San Jose St. W 80-61 95%    
  Jan 04, 2022 79   Boise St. W 70-64 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 201   @ New Mexico W 83-75 78%    
  Jan 12, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 73-77 37%    
  Jan 15, 2022 84   Wyoming W 75-69 70%    
  Jan 18, 2022 129   @ Fresno St. W 69-65 65%    
  Jan 26, 2022 48   San Diego St. W 66-63 60%    
  Jan 29, 2022 92   @ Nevada W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 01, 2022 256   Air Force W 73-55 95%    
  Feb 05, 2022 147   UNLV W 73-62 85%    
  Feb 08, 2022 84   @ Wyoming W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 11, 2022 92   Nevada W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 15, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 19, 2022 79   @ Boise St. L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 22, 2022 201   New Mexico W 86-72 91%    
  Feb 26, 2022 42   Colorado St. W 76-74 57%    
  Mar 04, 2022 280   @ San Jose St. W 77-64 86%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.5 7.4 8.9 6.1 2.7 0.6 28.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 3.5 9.0 6.3 2.0 0.2 21.4 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.3 7.5 4.3 0.7 0.0 16.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.4 6.0 3.7 0.4 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.4 2.2 0.2 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.7 2.0 0.2 6.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.0 0.1 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.7 5.7 9.5 12.1 15.0 16.2 14.4 10.9 6.2 2.7 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 2.7    2.7 0.0
16-2 97.1% 6.1    5.4 0.7
15-3 81.3% 8.9    5.9 2.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 51.4% 7.4    3.3 3.3 0.8 0.0
13-5 15.5% 2.5    0.6 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 18.4 7.6 2.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 100.0% 59.6% 40.4% 2.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.7% 100.0% 52.7% 47.3% 4.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 100.0%
16-2 6.2% 98.3% 46.8% 51.5% 6.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 96.9%
15-3 10.9% 94.4% 33.3% 61.0% 7.8 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.6 91.5%
14-4 14.4% 85.4% 31.2% 54.2% 9.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.4 3.4 2.8 1.7 0.3 2.1 78.7%
13-5 16.2% 67.7% 20.4% 47.3% 9.9 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.0 3.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 5.2 59.4%
12-6 15.0% 49.8% 14.0% 35.8% 10.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 3.1 1.1 0.1 7.5 41.6%
11-7 12.1% 31.0% 10.4% 20.6% 10.9 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 0.9 0.1 8.3 23.0%
10-8 9.5% 19.8% 9.1% 10.7% 11.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.0 7.6 11.8%
9-9 5.7% 9.4% 7.1% 2.3% 11.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 5.1 2.5%
8-10 3.7% 5.8% 5.3% 0.5% 12.4 0.1 0.1 3.5 0.6%
7-11 2.1% 4.3% 4.3% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.0
6-12 0.7% 0.7
5-13 0.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.0 0.0 0.2
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 56.9% 21.0% 35.9% 8.8 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.4 3.5 4.4 6.4 9.1 11.2 11.5 4.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 43.1 45.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 47.6 52.4