Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.9#33
Expected Predictive Rating+17.6#20
Pace70.7#160
Improvement+1.8#56

Offense
Total Offense+8.0#33
First Shot+6.3#33
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#84
Layup/Dunks+6.6#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#151
Freethrows-0.8#227
Improvement+1.2#69

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#49
First Shot+7.2#18
After Offensive Rebounds-2.2#311
Layups/Dunks+7.8#9
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#213
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#302
Freethrows+2.8#39
Improvement+0.6#126
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.9% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 7.7% 8.1% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 17.7% 18.4% 5.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 67.2% 68.2% 48.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 48.8% 49.9% 29.7%
Average Seed 8.1 8.1 9.2
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 97.9% 94.4%
Conference Champion 51.1% 51.9% 34.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four8.6% 8.6% 8.0%
First Round63.2% 64.1% 45.0%
Second Round36.1% 36.9% 20.2%
Sweet Sixteen13.0% 13.4% 5.2%
Elite Eight5.0% 5.2% 1.6%
Final Four1.8% 1.9% 0.2%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana St. (Home) - 95.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 12 - 2
Quad 27 - 39 - 5
Quad 311 - 220 - 6
Quad 46 - 026 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 47 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-77 56%     1 - 0 +14.4 +7.7 +6.4
  Wed, Nov 12 228 Weber St. W 83-73 96%     2 - 0 +3.0 +4.4 -1.6
  Sat, Nov 15 234 UTEP W 75-51 96%     3 - 0 +16.7 +3.7 +13.7
  Fri, Nov 21 153 Tulane W 96-75 88%     4 - 0 +20.9 +21.3 +0.0
  Sun, Nov 23 132 Davidson W 94-60 85%     5 - 0 +35.9 +21.5 +14.2
  Sat, Nov 29 182 Montana St. W 82-64 95%    
  Thu, Dec 4 87 @South Florida W 84-80 64%    
  Sun, Dec 7 199 @Charlotte W 79-67 87%    
  Sat, Dec 13 100 Illinois St. W 78-70 77%    
  Sat, Dec 20 77 Colorado St. W 79-70 78%    
  Tue, Dec 30 154 @Fresno St. W 82-72 82%    
  Sat, Jan 3 188 San Jose St. W 82-64 94%    
  Tue, Jan 6 322 @Air Force W 80-61 96%    
  Sat, Jan 10 60 @Boise St. W 73-72 52%    
  Wed, Jan 14 110 Nevada W 81-69 86%    
  Sat, Jan 17 97 @Grand Canyon W 78-73 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 130 UNLV W 89-75 89%    
  Fri, Jan 23 77 @Colorado St. W 76-73 59%    
  Wed, Jan 28 114 Wyoming W 83-70 87%    
  Sat, Jan 31 56 San Diego St. W 79-73 72%    
  Wed, Feb 4 103 @New Mexico W 82-77 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 114 @Wyoming W 80-73 72%    
  Tue, Feb 10 154 Fresno St. W 85-69 92%    
  Sat, Feb 14 72 Memphis W 81-73 76%    
  Wed, Feb 18 60 Boise St. W 76-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 110 @Nevada W 78-72 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 56 @San Diego St. W 77-76 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 97 Grand Canyon W 81-70 83%    
  Tue, Mar 3 130 @UNLV W 86-78 76%    
  Sat, Mar 7 103 New Mexico W 85-74 84%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 5.5 10.7 12.9 11.5 6.8 2.3 51.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.7 5.3 7.3 4.6 1.6 0.2 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 4.1 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 0.8 0.1 6.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.8 6.0 8.8 11.6 14.5 15.6 14.5 11.7 6.8 2.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
19-1 100.0% 6.8    6.7 0.1
18-2 98.3% 11.5    10.8 0.7 0.0
17-3 89.2% 12.9    10.7 2.2 0.1
16-4 68.7% 10.7    6.7 3.5 0.5 0.0
15-5 37.6% 5.5    2.1 2.5 0.8 0.1
14-6 11.6% 1.4    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 51.1% 51.1 39.5 9.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.3% 99.7% 64.8% 34.9% 3.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
19-1 6.8% 98.9% 60.0% 38.9% 4.5 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 97.2%
18-2 11.7% 96.3% 52.1% 44.1% 6.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.4 92.2%
17-3 14.5% 90.7% 46.0% 44.7% 7.9 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.6 2.4 2.6 2.6 2.0 0.7 1.4 82.7%
16-4 15.6% 80.9% 39.8% 41.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.0 3.6 2.1 0.0 3.0 68.3%
15-5 14.5% 66.9% 33.5% 33.4% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.4 3.3 0.1 4.8 50.2%
14-6 11.6% 52.4% 27.6% 24.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.2 0.1 5.5 34.2%
13-7 8.8% 36.7% 20.5% 16.2% 10.7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.1 0.2 5.6 20.4%
12-8 6.0% 23.5% 16.2% 7.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.2 4.6 8.8%
11-9 3.8% 15.2% 12.3% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.2 3.3%
10-10 2.2% 6.9% 6.0% 0.9% 11.3 0.1 0.0 2.0 1.0%
9-11 1.2% 3.4% 3.2% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.3%
8-12 0.7% 2.5% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.2% 4.1% 4.1% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 67.2% 36.0% 31.2% 8.1 0.7 1.2 2.1 3.9 4.3 5.7 6.5 7.2 9.5 12.6 13.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 32.8 48.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 2.2 30.7 33.2 23.1 10.5 2.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 98.4% 3.4 4.9 14.8 32.8 37.7 3.3 3.3 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.9 5.3 5.3 34.2 28.9 10.5 10.5 5.3