Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.3#43
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#38
Pace69.9#174
Improvement-1.3#273

Offense
Total Offense+6.0#55
First Shot+6.0#37
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#178
Layup/Dunks+7.1#15
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#277
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#161
Freethrows+0.0#180
Improvement-1.6#305

Defense
Total Defense+5.4#45
First Shot+7.4#17
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#304
Layups/Dunks+10.7#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#262
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#254
Freethrows-0.5#219
Improvement+0.3#157
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 2.4% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 6.3% 7.9% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.9% 56.1% 39.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.4% 40.7% 24.2%
Average Seed 9.1 8.9 9.6
.500 or above 99.2% 99.6% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 94.4% 95.5% 91.9%
Conference Champion 32.4% 35.3% 25.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.7% 10.1% 8.7%
First Round46.3% 51.4% 34.3%
Second Round22.2% 25.6% 14.4%
Sweet Sixteen5.8% 6.8% 3.4%
Elite Eight2.0% 2.5% 0.9%
Final Four0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Neutral) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 22 - 3
Quad 27 - 48 - 7
Quad 39 - 118 - 8
Quad 46 - 024 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 48 Virginia Commonwealth W 80-77 52%     1 - 0 +13.9 +7.1 +6.6
  Wed, Nov 12 215 Weber St. W 83-73 94%     2 - 0 +3.7 +6.0 -2.5
  Sat, Nov 15 230 UTEP W 75-51 95%     3 - 0 +17.0 +3.2 +14.5
  Fri, Nov 21 183 Tulane W 96-75 89%     4 - 0 +19.3 +21.2 -1.6
  Sun, Nov 23 138 Davidson W 94-60 83%     5 - 0 +35.3 +21.3 +13.8
  Sat, Nov 29 165 Montana St. W 84-81 OT 91%     6 - 0 -0.4 +1.8 -2.5
  Thu, Dec 4 84 @South Florida L 61-74 57%     6 - 1 -3.4 -8.1 +4.8
  Sun, Dec 7 196 @Charlotte W 79-53 84%     7 - 1 +26.7 +11.6 +17.2
  Sat, Dec 13 92 Illinois St. W 76-70 70%    
  Sat, Dec 20 69 Colorado St. W 77-71 72%    
  Tue, Dec 30 191 @Fresno St. W 81-71 83%    
  Sat, Jan 3 190 San Jose St. W 80-64 93%    
  Tue, Jan 6 329 @Air Force W 77-59 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 46 @Boise St. L 69-72 41%    
  Wed, Jan 14 96 Nevada W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Jan 17 95 @Grand Canyon W 74-71 61%    
  Tue, Jan 20 124 UNLV W 86-74 86%    
  Fri, Jan 23 69 @Colorado St. W 74-73 51%    
  Wed, Jan 28 99 Wyoming W 80-71 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 55 San Diego St. W 78-74 65%    
  Wed, Feb 4 74 @New Mexico W 79-78 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 99 @Wyoming W 77-74 62%    
  Tue, Feb 10 191 Fresno St. W 84-68 93%    
  Sat, Feb 14 66 Memphis W 78-72 70%    
  Wed, Feb 18 46 Boise St. W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Feb 21 96 @Nevada W 74-71 61%    
  Wed, Feb 25 55 @San Diego St. L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Feb 28 95 Grand Canyon W 77-68 78%    
  Tue, Mar 3 124 @UNLV W 83-77 69%    
  Sat, Mar 7 74 New Mexico W 82-75 72%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.5 5.5 8.5 8.4 5.5 2.4 0.6 32.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.8 6.6 7.4 3.8 1.0 0.1 20.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.6 5.6 1.8 0.2 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 4.1 4.3 1.0 0.1 10.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 7.4 9.9 12.7 14.7 14.8 12.4 9.3 5.6 2.4 0.6 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.4    2.4 0.0
18-2 98.4% 5.5    5.2 0.3
17-3 89.7% 8.4    6.8 1.5 0.1
16-4 68.2% 8.5    5.2 2.9 0.4 0.0
15-5 37.2% 5.5    1.9 2.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 10.1% 1.5    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 32.4% 32.4 22.3 7.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 99.4% 50.9% 48.5% 3.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
19-1 2.4% 98.9% 51.8% 47.1% 5.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 97.7%
18-2 5.6% 96.3% 45.2% 51.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.2 93.2%
17-3 9.3% 90.2% 38.9% 51.3% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.0 1.5 0.4 0.9 83.9%
16-4 12.4% 78.6% 33.4% 45.1% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.6 3.0 1.6 0.0 2.7 67.8%
15-5 14.8% 64.7% 27.8% 36.9% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.3 3.2 0.0 5.2 51.1%
14-6 14.7% 49.0% 22.2% 26.8% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 3.8 0.1 7.5 34.5%
13-7 12.7% 33.6% 18.0% 15.6% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.8 0.2 8.4 19.0%
12-8 9.9% 19.6% 13.3% 6.3% 10.9 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.2 7.9 7.3%
11-9 7.4% 11.7% 8.7% 3.0% 11.1 0.0 0.7 0.1 6.5 3.3%
10-10 4.7% 8.2% 7.4% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 4.3 0.9%
9-11 2.9% 6.2% 6.0% 0.2% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.7 0.2%
8-12 1.6% 2.4% 2.1% 0.2% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.2%
7-13 0.7% 2.3% 2.3% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 3.1% 3.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 50.9% 24.0% 26.9% 9.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.9 3.9 5.5 8.2 11.9 14.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 49.1 35.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 21.5 24.6 27.7 24.6 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 3.7 18.5 37.0 33.3 3.7 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 4.1 4.3 13.0 60.9 13.0 8.7