Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#47
Expected Predictive Rating+11.1#46
Pace70.1#118
Improvement-1.5#335

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#15
First Shot+6.9#22
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#64
Layup/Dunks+1.5#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#21
Freethrows+3.1#15
Improvement+0.0#204

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#129
First Shot+0.6#152
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#103
Layups/Dunks+1.2#126
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#281
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#181
Freethrows+0.3#158
Improvement-1.5#347
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 3.0% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 7.1% 10.2% 1.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 66.3% 72.2% 56.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 60.4% 67.1% 49.0%
Average Seed 9.1 8.8 9.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.9% 98.3%
Conference Champion 19.4% 25.4% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four14.0% 12.7% 16.2%
First Round58.9% 65.5% 47.5%
Second Round26.5% 30.6% 19.4%
Sweet Sixteen7.8% 9.2% 5.4%
Elite Eight2.6% 3.1% 1.9%
Final Four0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Championship Game0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 63.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 4
Quad 28 - 19 - 5
Quad 310 - 119 - 6
Quad 43 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 99   Utah Valley W 75-58 78%     1 - 0 +19.0 +2.2 +16.3
  Nov 11, 2022 89   Bradley W 84-62 75%     2 - 0 +24.9 +12.3 +12.0
  Nov 14, 2022 93   Santa Clara W 96-74 76%     3 - 0 +24.6 +12.8 +9.4
  Nov 17, 2022 216   @ San Diego W 91-89 OT 82%     4 - 0 +2.5 +5.8 -3.5
  Nov 22, 2022 69   Oral Roberts W 95-85 67%     5 - 0 +15.5 +9.0 +5.1
  Dec 01, 2022 211   Utah Tech W 86-81 91%     6 - 0 +0.2 +10.7 -10.6
  Dec 04, 2022 88   San Francisco W 82-64 66%     7 - 0 +23.6 +7.7 +15.1
  Dec 10, 2022 91   Loyola Marymount W 79-67 67%     8 - 0 +17.4 +7.3 +9.9
  Dec 19, 2022 213   Weber St. L 72-75 91%     8 - 1 -7.9 -2.0 -5.9
  Dec 22, 2022 142   Seattle W 84-56 79%     9 - 1 +29.6 +13.6 +15.8
  Dec 23, 2022 167   SMU L 74-77 82%     9 - 2 -2.9 +4.3 -7.2
  Dec 25, 2022 63   Washington St. W 82-73 56%     10 - 2 +17.4 +15.3 +2.3
  Dec 31, 2022 169   Fresno St. W 67-54 88%     11 - 2 1 - 0 +10.3 -0.1 +11.2
  Jan 03, 2023 168   @ Air Force W 77-65 76%     12 - 2 2 - 0 +14.8 +9.8 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 59-82 33%     12 - 3 2 - 1 -8.5 -2.7 -6.0
  Jan 10, 2023 139   Wyoming W 83-63 85%     13 - 3 3 - 1 +18.9 +7.2 +11.7
  Jan 13, 2023 59   @ Nevada L 70-85 44%     13 - 4 3 - 2 -3.3 +6.1 -10.2
  Jan 17, 2023 76   UNLV W 75-71 71%     14 - 4 4 - 2 +8.2 +6.4 +1.8
  Jan 21, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 75-74 83%     15 - 4 5 - 2 +1.0 +10.6 -9.5
  Jan 25, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. L 75-85 32%     15 - 5 5 - 3 +4.9 +17.1 -13.2
  Jan 28, 2023 169   @ Fresno St. W 70-53 76%     16 - 5 6 - 3 +19.8 +13.8 +8.9
  Feb 01, 2023 54   New Mexico W 84-73 62%     17 - 5 7 - 3 +17.8 +15.4 +2.7
  Feb 04, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. W 78-74 63%    
  Feb 08, 2023 33   San Diego St. W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 11, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 14, 2023 168   Air Force W 76-63 89%    
  Feb 18, 2023 59   Nevada W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 21, 2023 139   @ Wyoming W 78-72 69%    
  Mar 01, 2023 76   @ UNLV W 76-75 50%    
  Mar 04, 2023 36   Boise St. W 71-70 55%    
Projected Record 22 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 5.5 10.1 3.4 19.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 5.5 13.6 3.0 22.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.6 12.6 4.7 0.0 21.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.2 10.9 7.4 0.3 22.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.8 4.7 0.5 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.6 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.6 3.0 9.7 19.5 26.4 24.1 13.1 3.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 3.4    3.0 0.5
14-4 77.0% 10.1    3.9 5.0 1.1 0.1
13-5 22.8% 5.5    0.5 1.8 2.2 0.8 0.1
12-6 1.1% 0.3    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.4% 19.4 7.4 7.3 3.5 1.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.4% 99.4% 20.1% 79.2% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.2%
14-4 13.1% 94.2% 18.2% 76.1% 7.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 3.5 3.0 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.8 93.0%
13-5 24.1% 82.8% 16.8% 66.0% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.3 3.9 6.5 6.3 1.6 0.0 4.1 79.4%
12-6 26.4% 66.8% 14.6% 52.2% 10.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 8.3 4.8 0.1 8.8 61.1%
11-7 19.5% 48.7% 13.4% 35.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.7 4.9 0.2 10.0 40.8%
10-8 9.7% 29.4% 10.2% 19.2% 10.8 0.1 0.6 2.0 0.2 6.9 21.4%
9-9 3.0% 16.9% 9.0% 7.8% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.5 8.6%
8-10 0.6% 5.3% 5.3% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 66.3% 14.9% 51.4% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 3.4 5.0 7.9 12.4 19.5 13.7 0.6 0.0 33.7 60.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.4% 99.4% 4.5 0.2 2.8 12.7 34.8 29.0 16.1 3.2 0.5 0.1
Lose Out 0.1% 5.9% 12.5 2.9 2.9