Utah St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.2#57
Expected Predictive Rating+12.5#41
Pace70.7#149
Improvement+0.5#139

Offense
Total Offense+4.2#72
First Shot+5.7#45
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#262
Layup/Dunks+12.5#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#269
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#297
Freethrows-1.1#245
Improvement+1.1#75

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#47
First Shot+3.4#85
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#77
Layups/Dunks-0.9#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#296
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#23
Freethrows+0.4#171
Improvement-0.6#250
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 2.1% 2.8% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 6.2% 7.8% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.8% 42.0% 27.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.6% 34.8% 19.9%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.5
.500 or above 93.9% 96.7% 88.6%
.500 or above in Conference 80.1% 82.6% 75.2%
Conference Champion 11.9% 13.1% 9.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.9% 1.7%
First Four8.0% 9.1% 5.9%
First Round32.6% 36.9% 24.5%
Second Round15.4% 18.3% 9.9%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 6.1% 2.9%
Elite Eight1.9% 2.3% 1.2%
Final Four0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 65.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 8
Quad 38 - 215 - 9
Quad 45 - 019 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2023 72   @ Bradley L 66-72 OT 46%     0 - 1 +4.2 -5.9 +10.7
  Nov 14, 2023 210   Southern Utah W 93-84 91%     1 - 1 +3.7 +9.6 -6.4
  Nov 19, 2023 170   Marshall W 83-60 81%     2 - 1 +22.8 +7.4 +14.6
  Nov 20, 2023 114   Akron W 65-62 71%     3 - 1 +6.6 -2.0 +8.7
  Nov 21, 2023 97   Stephen F. Austin W 79-49 66%     4 - 1 +34.8 +7.8 +26.6
  Nov 28, 2023 148   @ Saint Louis W 81-76 69%     5 - 1 +9.0 +12.8 -3.6
  Dec 02, 2023 66   UC Irvine W 74-70 66%    
  Dec 06, 2023 197   San Diego W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 13, 2023 127   @ Santa Clara W 77-74 61%    
  Dec 16, 2023 70   San Francisco W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 22, 2023 241   East Tennessee St. W 79-63 94%    
  Jan 02, 2024 196   @ Air Force W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 06, 2024 26   Colorado St. L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 09, 2024 150   Wyoming W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 13, 2024 128   @ UNLV W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 16, 2024 47   @ New Mexico L 76-80 35%    
  Jan 20, 2024 169   Fresno St. W 75-63 86%    
  Jan 27, 2024 76   @ Boise St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 30, 2024 112   San Jose St. W 70-61 76%    
  Feb 03, 2024 21   @ San Diego St. L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 06, 2024 40   Nevada W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 10, 2024 76   Boise St. W 72-67 68%    
  Feb 14, 2024 150   @ Wyoming W 73-68 68%    
  Feb 17, 2024 26   @ Colorado St. L 71-78 28%    
  Feb 20, 2024 21   San Diego St. L 70-71 45%    
  Feb 27, 2024 169   @ Fresno St. W 72-66 70%    
  Mar 01, 2024 196   Air Force W 71-57 89%    
  Mar 06, 2024 112   @ San Jose St. W 67-64 59%    
  Mar 09, 2024 47   New Mexico W 79-77 57%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.1 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 11.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 3.3 6.1 3.8 1.1 0.1 15.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.0 4.1 7.0 3.8 0.6 0.0 16.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 4.9 7.8 3.2 0.4 0.0 17.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.8 6.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.0 1.7 0.2 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 2.2 3.4 1.3 0.0 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.3 0.8 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.1 5.6 8.3 10.1 13.8 14.7 14.1 12.0 7.6 4.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
16-2 95.5% 1.9    1.5 0.3 0.0
15-3 78.1% 3.9    2.5 1.1 0.2
14-4 41.3% 3.1    1.1 1.4 0.7 0.0
13-5 14.4% 1.7    0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.5% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.9% 11.9 6.4 3.7 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 100.0% 35.1% 64.9% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.8% 99.7% 28.9% 70.8% 3.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
16-2 2.0% 99.5% 31.9% 67.6% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
15-3 4.9% 94.9% 22.0% 72.9% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.3 93.5%
14-4 7.6% 86.0% 20.4% 65.6% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.1 82.4%
13-5 12.0% 69.6% 13.9% 55.7% 9.4 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.3 2.7 1.4 0.1 3.7 64.7%
12-6 14.1% 44.9% 10.7% 34.2% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 3.0 0.2 0.0 7.8 38.3%
11-7 14.7% 28.6% 7.4% 21.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 10.5 22.9%
10-8 13.8% 15.0% 7.0% 8.0% 11.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 11.7 8.6%
9-9 10.1% 9.2% 7.2% 2.0% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 2.2%
8-10 8.3% 5.7% 5.0% 0.7% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.8 0.7%
7-11 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3
6-12 3.1% 1.2% 1.2% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.1
5-13 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.4
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 36.8% 10.2% 26.6% 9.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 1.5 2.5 2.5 3.8 5.4 7.2 9.2 1.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 63.2 29.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 59.5 21.4 14.3 4.8