Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#110
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#111
Pace68.0#232
Improvement-0.5#216

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#117
First Shot+3.5#80
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#265
Layup/Dunks-2.1#254
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#31
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#299
Freethrows+6.2#2
Improvement-1.5#309

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#109
First Shot+1.8#116
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#188
Layups/Dunks+5.5#30
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#49
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#317
Freethrows-1.6#274
Improvement+1.0#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.8% 4.8% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.3 11.8
.500 or above 67.4% 76.9% 54.8%
.500 or above in Conference 57.7% 62.6% 51.2%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.5% 2.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 1.0% 1.9%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round3.7% 4.6% 2.5%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 4
Quad 23 - 54 - 9
Quad 38 - 412 - 14
Quad 46 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 193 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 81%     1 - 0 +21.8 +14.2 +10.8
  Sat, Nov 8 144 Pacific W 78-77 73%     2 - 0 -1.2 +7.2 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 142 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 72%     3 - 0 +3.0 +2.8 -0.3
  Sat, Nov 15 53 @Santa Clara L 83-98 20%     3 - 1 -1.9 +15.6 -17.5
  Tue, Nov 18 175 UC Davis L 71-75 79%     3 - 2 -8.3 -6.2 -1.9
  Sat, Nov 22 145 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 74%     4 - 2 +10.3 +2.3 +8.4
  Thu, Nov 27 58 Washington L 66-83 30%     4 - 3 -7.6 -3.9 -3.4
  Fri, Nov 28 89 San Francisco W 81-65 42%     5 - 3 +22.0 +18.0 +5.5
  Tue, Dec 2 98 UC San Diego W 75-73 57%    
  Sun, Dec 7 159 @Washington St. W 79-77 56%    
  Sat, Dec 13 126 Duquesne W 81-76 66%    
  Sat, Dec 20 60 Boise St. L 68-70 42%    
  Tue, Dec 30 77 @Colorado St. L 69-75 28%    
  Sat, Jan 3 154 @Fresno St. W 75-74 54%    
  Tue, Jan 6 56 San Diego St. L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Jan 10 114 Wyoming W 76-72 62%    
  Wed, Jan 14 33 @Utah St. L 69-81 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 322 @Air Force W 72-62 81%    
  Tue, Jan 20 188 San Jose St. W 74-65 79%    
  Sat, Jan 24 103 @New Mexico L 75-79 37%    
  Tue, Jan 27 97 Grand Canyon W 74-72 56%    
  Fri, Jan 30 130 UNLV W 81-76 67%    
  Tue, Feb 3 60 @Boise St. L 65-73 23%    
  Sat, Feb 7 154 Fresno St. W 78-71 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 56 @San Diego St. L 69-78 22%    
  Tue, Feb 17 188 @San Jose St. W 71-68 60%    
  Sat, Feb 21 33 Utah St. L 72-78 30%    
  Tue, Feb 24 103 New Mexico W 78-76 58%    
  Sat, Feb 28 130 @UNLV L 78-79 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 114 @Wyoming L 73-75 42%    
  Sat, Mar 7 322 Air Force W 75-59 92%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.6 2.3 0.6 0.1 8.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.8 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.8 3.5 0.6 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.3 5.8 4.2 0.6 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.4 4.1 0.8 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 4.4 4.0 0.8 0.0 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.8 3.5 0.9 0.0 10.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.0 0.7 0.0 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.5 8.0 10.8 12.9 13.4 13.4 10.8 8.5 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 93.1% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 78.7% 0.5    0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 51.3% 0.9    0.5 0.3 0.1
15-5 28.1% 0.9    0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.2% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 55.2% 27.6% 27.6% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 38.1%
17-3 0.7% 34.8% 19.8% 15.0% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 18.7%
16-4 1.7% 21.6% 15.2% 6.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.3 7.5%
15-5 3.3% 13.9% 12.4% 1.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 2.9 1.8%
14-6 5.7% 10.2% 9.8% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 5.1 0.5%
13-7 8.5% 6.7% 6.6% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.1%
12-8 10.8% 4.7% 4.7% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 10.3
11-9 13.4% 3.5% 3.5% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12.9
10-10 13.4% 1.7% 1.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.2
9-11 12.9% 1.1% 1.1% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.7
8-12 10.8% 0.5% 0.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7
7-13 8.0% 0.7% 0.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.0
6-14 5.5% 0.3% 0.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 5.5
5-15 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
4-16 1.4% 1.4
3-17 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.8% 3.5% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.7 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.2 0.4%