Nevada
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.9#92
Expected Predictive Rating+2.5#139
Pace74.1#71
Improvement+1.6#63

Offense
Total Offense+4.6#57
First Shot+4.1#63
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#142
Layup/Dunks+0.4#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#94
Freethrows-0.2#196
Improvement-0.9#271

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#127
First Shot+1.0#136
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#158
Layups/Dunks+0.9#160
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#247
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#224
Freethrows+2.1#61
Improvement+2.5#15
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.2% 15.9% 9.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 6.8% 2.6%
Average Seed 10.8 10.6 11.2
.500 or above 72.3% 83.2% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 76.6% 65.5%
Conference Champion 6.8% 8.9% 5.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.7% 0.8%
First Four1.7% 2.7% 1.0%
First Round11.2% 14.3% 8.6%
Second Round3.4% 4.9% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 37 - 312 - 13
Quad 46 - 118 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 203   Eastern Washington W 91-76 84%     1 - 0 +10.2 +7.1 +1.7
  Nov 13, 2021 153   San Diego L 68-75 78%     1 - 1 -9.2 -1.9 -7.5
  Nov 16, 2021 82   @ Santa Clara L 74-96 35%     1 - 2 -12.3 -2.3 -7.9
  Nov 18, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 70-73 27%     1 - 3 +9.3 +6.0 +3.1
  Nov 22, 2021 70   South Dakota St. L 75-102 45%     1 - 4 -19.8 -9.5 -6.6
  Nov 23, 2021 115   George Mason W 88-69 60%     2 - 4 +22.2 +12.3 +9.1
  Nov 24, 2021 145   Washington W 81-62 66%     3 - 4 +20.6 +6.5 +13.1
  Nov 30, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 79-66 88%     4 - 4 +6.3 -3.5 +8.5
  Dec 04, 2021 108   @ North Texas L 65-66 45%    
  Dec 07, 2021 234   @ Texas Arlington W 77-70 72%    
  Dec 18, 2021 130   Loyola Marymount W 78-71 72%    
  Dec 21, 2021 110   Grand Canyon W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 29, 2021 280   @ San Jose St. W 78-69 79%    
  Jan 01, 2022 201   New Mexico W 89-78 83%    
  Jan 04, 2022 84   Wyoming W 76-74 58%    
  Jan 08, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 64-71 27%    
  Jan 12, 2022 79   Boise St. W 72-70 59%    
  Jan 15, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 71-63 78%    
  Jan 21, 2022 129   Fresno St. W 74-67 71%    
  Jan 25, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 75-83 25%    
  Jan 29, 2022 46   Utah St. L 75-76 47%    
  Feb 01, 2022 147   @ UNLV W 72-71 55%    
  Feb 04, 2022 129   @ Fresno St. W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 08, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 78-80 44%    
  Feb 11, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 72-79 27%    
  Feb 16, 2022 280   San Jose St. W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 22, 2022 147   UNLV W 75-68 76%    
  Feb 26, 2022 84   @ Wyoming L 73-77 37%    
  Mar 01, 2022 79   @ Boise St. L 69-73 36%    
  Mar 05, 2022 48   San Diego St. L 67-68 46%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.7 2.3 0.3 0.1 10.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.6 5.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 7.0 2.7 0.2 13.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.1 7.1 3.0 0.2 15.1 5th
6th 0.6 4.2 7.0 3.1 0.2 15.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 3.3 5.7 2.5 0.2 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.0 4.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 11th
Total 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.7 4.9 8.1 11.9 14.5 14.3 14.3 11.1 8.0 4.5 2.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 94.8% 1.1    1.0 0.1
15-3 84.5% 1.9    1.3 0.6 0.0
14-4 45.2% 2.0    0.7 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 16.2% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.8% 6.8 3.5 2.3 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 100.0% 38.1% 61.9% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.2% 83.6% 40.6% 43.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 72.4%
15-3 2.3% 71.4% 30.0% 41.3% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 59.1%
14-4 4.5% 46.8% 21.9% 24.9% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.4 31.8%
13-5 8.0% 27.5% 15.7% 11.8% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 5.8 14.0%
12-6 11.1% 15.0% 12.5% 2.5% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 9.4 2.9%
11-7 14.3% 8.9% 8.1% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.8%
10-8 14.3% 6.2% 5.8% 0.3% 12.5 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 13.4 0.3%
9-9 14.5% 5.0% 5.0% 12.7 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 13.8
8-10 11.9% 1.8% 1.8% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.7
7-11 8.1% 2.2% 2.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.9
6-12 4.9% 0.5% 0.5% 15.1 0.0 0.0 4.9
5-13 2.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.3% 1.3
3-15 0.5% 0.5
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 12.2% 8.1% 4.1% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.6 3.7 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 87.8 4.5%