Nevada
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.0#99
Expected Predictive Rating+7.6#79
Pace64.9#299
Improvement+1.0#116

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#96
First Shot+1.6#130
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#84
Layup/Dunks-3.4#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#20
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#310
Freethrows+5.0#6
Improvement-0.2#201

Defense
Total Defense+1.8#114
First Shot+2.6#90
After Offensive Rebounds-0.9#253
Layups/Dunks+3.9#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#33
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#238
Freethrows-2.1#303
Improvement+1.2#93
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 7.2% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.6% 0.4%
Average Seed 11.1 10.9 11.3
.500 or above 86.8% 94.0% 82.2%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 77.6% 54.7%
Conference Champion 3.9% 7.3% 1.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four0.6% 1.1% 0.3%
First Round4.6% 6.6% 3.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 39.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 5
Quad 23 - 54 - 10
Quad 39 - 313 - 12
Quad 46 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 179 Louisiana Tech W 77-50 81%     1 - 0 +22.7 +14.1 +11.7
  Sat, Nov 8 129 Pacific W 78-77 71%     2 - 0 +0.1 +8.3 -8.2
  Wed, Nov 12 130 Southern Illinois W 86-81 OT 72%     3 - 0 +4.1 +3.6 +0.0
  Sat, Nov 15 73 @Santa Clara L 83-98 29%     3 - 1 -4.3 +13.7 -17.9
  Tue, Nov 18 201 UC Davis L 71-75 84%     3 - 2 -9.6 -7.1 -2.2
  Sat, Nov 22 151 UC Santa Barbara W 77-64 76%     4 - 2 +10.6 +2.5 +8.5
  Thu, Nov 27 47 Washington L 66-83 28%     4 - 3 -6.1 -4.0 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 28 96 San Francisco W 81-65 48%     5 - 3 +21.4 +18.0 +4.9
  Tue, Dec 2 89 UC San Diego W 76-70 58%     6 - 3 +8.8 +9.9 -0.5
  Sun, Dec 7 165 @Washington St. W 78-64 59%     7 - 3 +16.6 +12.8 +5.3
  Sat, Dec 13 137 Duquesne W 78-75 73%     8 - 3 +1.6 +6.9 -5.2
  Sat, Dec 20 46 Boise St. L 67-70 39%    
  Tue, Dec 30 69 @Colorado St. L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 3 184 @Fresno St. W 75-71 63%    
  Tue, Jan 6 52 San Diego St. L 72-74 41%    
  Sat, Jan 10 97 Wyoming W 75-72 61%    
  Wed, Jan 14 43 @Utah St. L 69-78 19%    
  Sat, Jan 17 324 @Air Force W 72-60 86%    
  Tue, Jan 20 188 San Jose St. W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Jan 24 74 @New Mexico L 73-79 30%    
  Tue, Jan 27 91 Grand Canyon W 71-69 59%    
  Fri, Jan 30 141 UNLV W 79-72 73%    
  Tue, Feb 3 46 @Boise St. L 64-73 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 184 Fresno St. W 78-68 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 52 @San Diego St. L 69-77 23%    
  Tue, Feb 17 188 @San Jose St. W 73-69 63%    
  Sat, Feb 21 43 Utah St. L 72-75 38%    
  Tue, Feb 24 74 New Mexico W 76-75 51%    
  Sat, Feb 28 141 @UNLV W 76-75 53%    
  Tue, Mar 3 97 @Wyoming L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 324 Air Force W 75-57 94%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.6 3.9 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.6 0.6 0.0 11.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.5 4.5 0.8 0.0 12.7 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 5.9 5.2 1.2 0.1 14.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.2 5.5 1.5 0.1 13.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.5 4.7 1.5 0.1 12.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.3 3.6 3.1 0.9 0.1 9.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.9 1.6 0.6 0.0 5.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.9 6.9 9.8 12.6 14.7 14.0 12.4 9.8 6.6 3.5 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.4% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 88.1% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
16-4 68.0% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 33.5% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
14-6 8.7% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.9% 3.9 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 64.5% 24.2% 40.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 53.2%
17-3 0.7% 49.1% 24.3% 24.8% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 32.7%
16-4 1.8% 29.7% 16.0% 13.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.2 16.3%
15-5 3.5% 17.6% 13.2% 4.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.9 5.1%
14-6 6.6% 11.7% 10.2% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 5.8 1.6%
13-7 9.8% 7.4% 6.9% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 9.0 0.5%
12-8 12.4% 5.3% 5.2% 0.1% 11.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 11.7 0.1%
11-9 14.0% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 11.6 0.2 0.3 0.0 13.5 0.0%
10-10 14.7% 2.4% 2.4% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.3
9-11 12.6% 0.8% 0.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.5
8-12 9.8% 0.6% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8
7-13 6.9% 0.7% 0.7% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.9
6-14 3.9% 0.4% 0.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 3.9
5-15 1.9% 1.9
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.9% 4.1% 0.9% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.1 0.9%