Wyoming
Mountain West
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#139
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#234
Pace65.6#264
Improvement+0.8#94

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#83
First Shot+5.0#44
After Offensive Rebound-1.8#306
Layup/Dunks+5.1#25
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.7#352
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#62
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement+0.7#67

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#230
First Shot-3.8#301
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#17
Layups/Dunks+0.3#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#322
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#295
Freethrows+1.0#110
Improvement+0.0#181
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.3% 1.6% 1.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.6% 1.4% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.2% 29.8% 58.2%
First Four1.3% 1.4% 1.2%
First Round1.0% 1.2% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 7
Quad 21 - 72 - 14
Quad 33 - 54 - 19
Quad 45 - 19 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 250   Nicholls St. W 79-68 81%     1 - 0 +3.5 -4.9 +7.4
  Nov 13, 2022 273   SE Louisiana L 72-76 83%     1 - 1 -12.5 -10.2 -2.2
  Nov 18, 2022 269   Howard W 78-71 76%     2 - 1 +1.4 +9.5 -7.4
  Nov 20, 2022 84   Drake L 56-61 33%     2 - 2 +1.1 -5.0 +5.4
  Nov 21, 2022 144   Boston College L 48-59 50%     2 - 3 -9.4 -14.0 +2.8
  Nov 30, 2022 93   Santa Clara L 85-89 OT 36%     2 - 4 +1.3 +13.3 -12.0
  Dec 03, 2022 116   Grand Canyon L 58-66 56%     2 - 5 -7.9 -11.1 +2.5
  Dec 06, 2022 319   Texas A&M - Commerce W 91-76 89%     3 - 5 +3.4 +10.1 -7.1
  Dec 10, 2022 137   Louisiana Tech W 92-65 60%     4 - 5 +26.0 +28.2 +0.7
  Dec 17, 2022 68   Dayton L 49-66 27%     4 - 6 -8.8 -9.6 -2.3
  Dec 21, 2022 12   St. Mary's L 54-66 11%     4 - 7 +3.0 -0.7 +2.0
  Dec 28, 2022 169   @ Fresno St. L 53-58 46%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -2.2 -5.7 +2.6
  Dec 31, 2022 54   New Mexico L 75-76 31%     4 - 9 0 - 2 +5.8 +3.6 +2.2
  Jan 07, 2023 33   San Diego St. L 75-80 23%     4 - 10 0 - 3 +4.4 +15.6 -11.8
  Jan 10, 2023 47   @ Utah St. L 63-83 15%     4 - 11 0 - 4 -7.3 -7.1 -0.1
  Jan 14, 2023 36   Boise St. L 68-85 24%     4 - 12 0 - 5 -8.0 +1.1 -8.6
  Jan 17, 2023 168   @ Air Force L 74-82 46%     4 - 13 0 - 6 -5.2 +6.7 -12.3
  Jan 21, 2023 113   Colorado St. W 58-57 54%     5 - 13 1 - 6 +1.7 -14.5 +16.2
  Jan 24, 2023 76   @ UNLV L 72-86 22%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -4.3 +9.5 -14.7
  Jan 31, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 85-62 66%     6 - 14 2 - 7 +20.3 +18.8 +2.8
  Feb 04, 2023 119   @ San Jose St. L 66-70 35%    
  Feb 08, 2023 76   UNLV L 71-74 42%    
  Feb 11, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 60-73 11%    
  Feb 14, 2023 54   @ New Mexico L 71-82 16%    
  Feb 18, 2023 168   Air Force W 69-65 67%    
  Feb 21, 2023 47   Utah St. L 72-78 31%    
  Feb 24, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. L 70-74 33%    
  Feb 27, 2023 59   Nevada L 68-73 34%    
  Mar 04, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. L 64-77 10%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.1 6th
7th 0.1 2.8 4.2 1.1 0.1 8.3 7th
8th 0.0 4.0 9.6 2.6 0.1 16.3 8th
9th 0.0 3.0 13.0 5.1 0.2 0.0 21.3 9th
10th 2.3 13.1 8.3 0.4 0.0 24.2 10th
11th 3.8 12.4 9.2 1.1 0.0 26.5 11th
Total 3.8 14.8 25.4 26.4 18.1 8.3 2.6 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8 0.1% 0.1
9-9 0.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-10 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.5
7-11 8.3% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.1
6-12 18.1% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 17.8
5-13 26.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.3 26.1
4-14 25.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.3 25.1
3-15 14.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 14.7
2-16 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.8
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.8% 0.7% 16.0 0.7