UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.0 #143
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #192
Pace 76.1 #37
Improvement -1.0 #245

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #148 C+ B+ D+ C+ B
Defense #149 B- D+ D B- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #25 1.15 #184 +4.2 #55
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #246 0.93 #19 +0.3 #166
Three Pointers 37% #268 0.96 #248 -3.1 #288
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #144 +1.4 #144
Freethrows 21.9 #15 68% #306 14.9 #58
Second Chance 32.6% #123 0.88 #336 0.29 #250
Turnovers 15.8% #125
Total Offense +0.6 #148

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.07 #75 -0.1 #186
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #198 0.86 #308 -0.8 #240
Three Pointers 38% #262 0.89 #50 +3.8 #51
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #93 +2.9 #92
Freethrows 19.3 #283 71% #116 13.7 #104
Second Chance 33.4% #280 1.13 #291 0.38 #306
Turnovers 18.5% #81
Total Defense +0.3 #149

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #63 0.7% #239
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.7% #164 -6.2% #76
Possession Length 15.6 #44 17.1 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #138 0.13 #47
Improvement -3.6 #352 +2.6 #37

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.1 13.3
.500 or above 11.7% 24.4% 8.0%
.500 or above in Conference 23.2% 42.0% 17.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Colorado St. (Away) - 23.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 74 - 11
Quad 33 - 57 - 16
Quad 45 - 312 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 236 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 79%     17.9   0 - 1 -12.5 -4.0 -7.9
  Sat, Nov 8 265 Chattanooga W 101-69 82%     10.7   1 - 1 +23.1 +25.8 -1.8
  Tue, Nov 11 190 Montana L 93-102 72%     -5.7   1 - 2 -14.0 +4.5 -17.3
  Sun, Nov 16 76 @Memphis W 92-78 18%     10.6   2 - 2 +24.6 +15.9 +6.9
  Thu, Nov 20 199 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 73%     3.6   3 - 2 +8.5 +13.5 -6.7
  Mon, Nov 24 102 Maryland L 67-74 35%     0.3   3 - 3 -2.0 -4.9 +3.3
  Tue, Nov 25 12 Alabama L 76-115 6%     -15.7   3 - 4 -20.5 -0.4 -15.8
  Thu, Nov 27 131 Rutgers L 65-80 46%     -3.4   3 - 5 -13.1 -6.1 -7.2
  Sun, Dec 7 81 @Stanford W 75-74 19%     -1.8   4 - 5 +11.1 +5.6 +5.5
  Sat, Dec 13 230 Tennessee St. L 60-63 77%     1.9   4 - 6 -9.9 -16.0 +6.1
  Sat, Dec 20 155 Fresno St. W 84-72 65%     4.3   5 - 6 1 - 0 +9.0 +13.2 -4.0
  Sat, Jan 3 336 Air Force W 67-39 91%     14.8   6 - 6 2 - 0 +14.1 -4.7 +20.8
  Tue, Jan 6 96 @Wyoming L 66-98 23%     -20.3   6 - 7 2 - 1 -23.5 -4.8 -17.7
  Fri, Jan 9 95 @Colorado St. L 72-80 23%    
  Tue, Jan 13 52 Boise St. L 71-77 28%    
  Sat, Jan 17 217 @San Jose St. W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 20 33 @Utah St. L 71-87 7%    
  Sat, Jan 24 50 San Diego St. L 74-81 27%    
  Tue, Jan 27 55 New Mexico L 75-81 31%    
  Fri, Jan 30 87 @Nevada L 71-80 21%    
  Tue, Feb 3 155 @Fresno St. L 76-78 42%    
  Sat, Feb 7 97 Grand Canyon L 75-76 45%    
  Tue, Feb 10 217 San Jose St. W 80-73 74%    
  Fri, Feb 13 52 @Boise St. L 68-80 13%    
  Wed, Feb 18 95 Colorado St. L 75-77 44%    
  Sat, Feb 21 336 @Air Force W 75-66 79%    
  Wed, Feb 25 97 @Grand Canyon L 72-79 26%    
  Sat, Feb 28 87 Nevada L 74-77 40%    
  Tue, Mar 3 33 Utah St. L 74-84 19%    
  Fri, Mar 6 50 @San Diego St. L 71-84 13%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 2.3 1.5 0.1 0.0 4.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 3.5 2.6 0.4 7.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.2 0.8 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.2 6.1 1.6 0.1 17.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 5.4 9.8 7.4 2.1 0.1 26.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 5.2 7.3 4.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 19.3 10th
11th 0.1 1.0 2.6 2.4 1.2 0.2 7.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.2 8.9 14.2 16.9 17.1 14.1 10.3 6.5 4.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 50.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 85.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 43.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 6.7% 6.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.7% 7.5% 7.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.6% 3.8% 3.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-8 4.0% 2.5% 2.5% 11.6 0.0 0.1 3.9
11-9 6.5% 1.8% 1.8% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.3
10-10 10.3% 0.9% 0.9% 12.4 0.1 0.0 10.2
9-11 14.1% 0.4% 0.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 14.0
8-12 17.1% 0.2% 0.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 17.1
7-13 16.9% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 16.8
6-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
5-15 8.9% 8.9
4-16 4.2% 4.2
3-17 1.2% 1.2
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%