UNLV
Mountain West
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#76
Expected Predictive Rating+7.5#73
Pace72.9#66
Improvement-0.4#244

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#110
First Shot+2.5#90
After Offensive Rebound-0.2#195
Layup/Dunks-1.7#250
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#144
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#120
Freethrows+2.1#41
Improvement+1.1#31

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#56
First Shot+4.6#52
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#171
Layups/Dunks+6.3#10
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#148
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#324
Freethrows+1.8#57
Improvement-1.5#349
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.9% 15.2% 8.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.7% 8.7% 2.8%
Average Seed 10.9 10.8 11.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 42.9% 48.7% 15.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 3.3%
First Four5.0% 5.6% 2.2%
First Round10.9% 11.8% 6.7%
Second Round3.3% 3.6% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 82.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 5
Quad 25 - 27 - 7
Quad 36 - 413 - 11
Quad 46 - 018 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 233   Southern W 66-56 89%     1 - 0 +3.6 -13.7 +16.3
  Nov 12, 2022 344   Incarnate Word W 88-63 97%     2 - 0 +10.4 +3.5 +5.4
  Nov 15, 2022 68   Dayton W 60-52 56%     3 - 0 +13.5 -7.7 +21.3
  Nov 18, 2022 304   High Point W 78-68 94%     4 - 0 -0.5 -7.1 +5.7
  Nov 21, 2022 130   Southern Illinois W 56-49 68%     5 - 0 +9.2 -5.1 +15.2
  Nov 23, 2022 173   Minnesota W 71-62 75%     6 - 0 +8.9 +1.6 +7.4
  Dec 03, 2022 216   @ San Diego W 95-78 73%     7 - 0 +17.5 +11.4 +4.9
  Dec 07, 2022 134   Hawaii W 77-62 69%     8 - 0 +16.8 +6.5 +10.1
  Dec 10, 2022 63   Washington St. W 74-70 44%     9 - 0 +12.4 +11.2 +1.5
  Dec 17, 2022 88   San Francisco L 73-75 65%     9 - 1 +0.9 -0.4 +1.3
  Dec 22, 2022 111   Southern Miss W 74-63 72%     10 - 1 +11.8 -2.2 +13.4
  Dec 28, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. L 72-75 OT 56%     10 - 2 0 - 1 +2.4 -0.5 +3.0
  Dec 31, 2022 33   San Diego St. L 67-76 40%     10 - 3 0 - 2 +0.4 -1.6 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2023 54   @ New Mexico W 84-77 30%     11 - 3 1 - 2 +19.3 +8.8 +9.9
  Jan 11, 2023 36   Boise St. L 66-84 42%     11 - 4 1 - 3 -9.0 +2.4 -11.7
  Jan 14, 2023 113   Colorado St. L 81-82 OT 73%     11 - 5 1 - 4 -0.3 -4.5 +4.3
  Jan 17, 2023 47   @ Utah St. L 71-75 29%     11 - 6 1 - 5 +8.7 +1.9 +6.8
  Jan 21, 2023 169   @ Fresno St. L 63-76 66%     11 - 7 1 - 6 -10.2 +4.0 -16.1
  Jan 24, 2023 139   Wyoming W 86-72 78%     12 - 7 2 - 6 +12.9 +15.4 -1.6
  Jan 28, 2023 59   Nevada W 68-62 53%     13 - 7 3 - 6 +12.2 -6.9 +18.7
  Jan 31, 2023 113   @ Colorado St. W 83-71 53%     14 - 7 4 - 6 +18.1 +13.9 +4.6
  Feb 03, 2023 169   Fresno St. W 69-59 82%    
  Feb 08, 2023 139   @ Wyoming W 74-71 58%    
  Feb 11, 2023 33   @ San Diego St. L 67-75 22%    
  Feb 14, 2023 119   San Jose St. W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 19, 2023 36   @ Boise St. L 63-71 23%    
  Feb 24, 2023 168   Air Force W 72-62 82%    
  Mar 01, 2023 47   Utah St. L 75-76 50%    
  Mar 04, 2023 59   @ Nevada L 68-73 32%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.5 1.7 0.1 3.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.7 5.6 1.2 11.1 5th
6th 0.2 5.6 19.5 19.9 5.8 0.2 51.2 6th
7th 0.0 2.6 11.0 8.5 1.8 0.1 24.0 7th
8th 0.3 3.7 2.4 0.2 6.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.1 0.1 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 0.1 0.6 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 11th
Total 0.1 1.6 7.7 19.1 28.7 25.6 13.0 3.8 0.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 3.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.4% 94.1% 12.3% 81.7% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 93.2%
11-7 3.8% 60.9% 11.7% 49.2% 10.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.0 1.5 55.7%
10-8 13.0% 30.1% 9.4% 20.7% 10.7 0.1 1.1 2.6 0.2 9.1 22.9%
9-9 25.6% 15.2% 7.7% 7.5% 11.1 0.0 0.4 2.9 0.6 0.0 21.7 8.2%
8-10 28.7% 7.2% 6.2% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.9 1.1 0.1 26.6 1.0%
7-11 19.1% 5.0% 4.9% 0.0% 12.4 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 18.1 0.0%
6-12 7.7% 4.0% 4.0% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.3
5-13 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
4-14 0.1% 3.6% 3.6% 15.0 0.0 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.9% 6.8% 7.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.7 7.1 2.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 86.1 7.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 94.1% 7.4 2.7 19.2 30.1 21.9 15.5 4.6
Lose Out 0.1% 3.6% 15.0 3.6