UNLV
Mountain West
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#147
Expected Predictive Rating+4.7#113
Pace64.8#288
Improvement-0.9#251

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#178
First Shot+0.5#168
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#219
Layup/Dunks-2.4#252
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#106
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#176
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement+1.2#66

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#112
First Shot+2.0#113
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#204
Layups/Dunks+2.8#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#139
Freethrows-1.2#254
Improvement-2.1#329
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.0 11.5 12.4
.500 or above 45.4% 63.9% 38.3%
.500 or above in Conference 41.4% 50.5% 38.0%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.5% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 5.0% 2.8% 5.8%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round2.3% 3.4% 1.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SMU (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 41 - 7
Quad 22 - 52 - 12
Quad 35 - 37 - 15
Quad 48 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 190   Gardner-Webb W 64-58 71%     1 - 0 +1.7 -12.4 +14.0
  Nov 13, 2021 122   California W 55-52 56%     2 - 0 +2.9 -8.8 +12.0
  Nov 15, 2021 182   North Dakota St. W 64-62 70%     3 - 0 -2.0 -7.1 +5.3
  Nov 19, 2021 15   Michigan L 61-74 11%     3 - 1 +2.0 -0.3 +1.6
  Nov 21, 2021 53   Wichita St. L 73-74 25%     3 - 2 +7.4 +6.5 +0.9
  Nov 27, 2021 8   UCLA L 51-73 12%     3 - 3 -7.5 -8.8 -1.8
  Dec 01, 2021 99   @ SMU L 67-73 28%    
  Dec 04, 2021 49   @ San Francisco L 61-72 15%    
  Dec 08, 2021 173   Seattle W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 11, 2021 265   Hartford W 73-63 83%    
  Dec 15, 2021 335   Nebraska Omaha W 76-59 94%    
  Dec 22, 2021 153   San Diego W 68-64 63%    
  Jan 01, 2022 48   San Diego St. L 59-64 31%    
  Jan 05, 2022 280   @ San Jose St. W 69-64 66%    
  Jan 08, 2022 256   @ Air Force W 63-59 64%    
  Jan 11, 2022 201   New Mexico W 78-72 72%    
  Jan 14, 2022 129   Fresno St. W 65-63 57%    
  Jan 18, 2022 48   @ San Diego St. L 56-67 15%    
  Jan 22, 2022 280   San Jose St. W 72-61 84%    
  Jan 28, 2022 42   @ Colorado St. L 66-78 15%    
  Feb 01, 2022 92   Nevada L 71-72 45%    
  Feb 05, 2022 46   @ Utah St. L 62-73 15%    
  Feb 08, 2022 256   Air Force W 66-56 81%    
  Feb 11, 2022 79   @ Boise St. L 60-68 23%    
  Feb 16, 2022 129   @ Fresno St. L 62-66 37%    
  Feb 19, 2022 42   Colorado St. L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 22, 2022 92   @ Nevada L 68-75 24%    
  Feb 26, 2022 79   Boise St. L 63-65 42%    
  Mar 02, 2022 84   Wyoming L 67-69 43%    
  Mar 05, 2022 201   @ New Mexico W 75-74 52%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.3 1.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.0 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.1 1.3 0.1 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.2 1.8 0.2 11.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 4.6 6.8 2.0 0.2 14.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 5.2 6.7 3.0 0.2 16.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 5.8 6.6 2.3 0.3 17.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 4.9 4.6 1.4 0.1 13.3 9th
10th 0.3 1.4 2.7 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.1 2.6 11th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 5.5 9.0 12.0 13.9 14.3 13.7 10.0 8.3 5.1 2.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 90.7% 0.4    0.2 0.2
14-4 54.1% 0.6    0.3 0.2 0.1
13-5 14.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 50.0% 50.0% 9.0 0.0 0.0 50.0%
16-2 0.1% 82.4% 14.9% 67.6% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 79.4%
15-3 0.5% 51.7% 17.4% 34.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 41.5%
14-4 1.1% 27.0% 11.7% 15.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 17.3%
13-5 2.5% 16.7% 11.9% 4.8% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.1 5.4%
12-6 5.1% 7.3% 6.5% 0.8% 12.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.7 0.9%
11-7 8.3% 2.5% 2.2% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.3%
10-8 10.0% 3.6% 3.6% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 9.7
9-9 13.7% 1.4% 1.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 13.5
8-10 14.3% 0.9% 0.9% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.2
7-11 13.9% 0.3% 0.3% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.9
6-12 12.0% 0.4% 0.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.0
5-13 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.0
4-14 5.5% 5.5
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.5% 1.8% 0.6% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 97.5 0.7%