UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating +4.3 102
Results Rating +4.5 105
Consistency 0.20 355
Pace 73.7 50
Improvement +5.1 31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 77 B C- C+ B- C+
Defense C 174 C+ C- C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 48 C+ 59% 136 +3.5 61
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 151 A- 46% 21 +1.8 84
Three Pointers 36% 289 B+ 38% 29 -0.6 202
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 142 B +4.2 63
1st FG Attempt B 1.11 59
Second Chance C+ 32.4% 108 D- 0.91 333 C- 0.29 217
Opponents' Steals B- 8.5% 92
Other Turnovers C- 7.6% 230
Turnovers C+ 16.0% 135
Freethrows B+ 0.36 27 D+ 69% 275 B- 0.25 78
Total Offense B- +4.5 77

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C+ 52% 122 B- 8.9% 73
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 24% 181 C- 5.9% 252
Three Pointers B- 88% 99 B 0.4% 74
Total C 56% 160 C+ 5.3% 150


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 103 C+ 56% 127 +1.1 215
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 134 B- 36% 105 +0.0 192
Three Pointers 36% 305 C- 35% 213 -2.0 98
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 176 C+ -0.9 145
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.00 145
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 149 D+ 1.10 280 C- 0.32 226
Turnovers from Steals B- 10.7% 84
Other Turnovers C- 7.0% 215
Turnovers C+ 17.8% 118
Freethrows F+ 0.37 345 C 72% 149 D- 0.27 338
Total Defense C -0.2 174

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 280 B- 13.5% 83
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 31% 284 B- 6.7% 71
Three Pointers C- 85% 216 C- 0.8% 178
Total C- 58% 245 B 7.4% 56

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 56 17.4 190
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 111 0.14 89
Consistency 0.16 356 0.14 294
Improvement +4.2 25 +1.0 137

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 115 105 96
Results Rating Rank 117 105 93
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 12 - 8
Conference Finish 7 7 5
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.4 11.9
.500 or above 72% 100% 66%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: San Diego St. (Away) - 17.2% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b3 - 24 - 3
Quad 23 - 57 - 9
Quad 34 - 411 - 13
Quad 45 - 316 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 230 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 85% +1  48% 0 - 1 D- -12 D+ -4 C A+ F D- -8 D+ D+ F+
 Sat, Nov 8 286 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 91% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +22 A+ +23 A A+ B- C +0 D+ B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 205 Montana L 93 - 102 82% -6  11% 1 - 2 D- -14 B- +4 B+ D- B+ F -17 F F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 119 @Memphis W 92 - 78 44% +11  95% 2 - 2 A +20 A- +11 A+ F B+ A- +7 A D+ A-
 Thu, Nov 20 116 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 66% +4  75% 3 - 2 B+ +14 A+ +16 B+ B C+ D+ -3 C A D
 Mon, Nov 24 107 Maryland L 67 - 74 51% +0  54% 3 - 3 C- -3 F+ -9 D F D+ B+ +6 A- D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 15 Alabama L 76 - 115 10% -16  5% 3 - 4 F -20 D+ -3 B F+ B- F -13 F+ F+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 109 Rutgers L 65 - 80 53% -3  27% 3 - 5 D -11 D- -8 D F A+ D+ -3 A- D C
 Sun, Dec 7 66 @Stanford W 75 - 74 23% -2  24% 4 - 5 B+ +13 C+ +3 B- D C A +10 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 196 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 81% +2  65% 4 - 6 D+ -8 F -20 F F F A+ +12 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 129 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 70% +4  74% 5 - 6 1 - 0 B +11 A +11 A+ A- C C -0 B F C
 Sat, Jan 3 344 Air Force W 67 - 39 96% +15  99% 6 - 6 2 - 0 B+ +12 F+ -10 F B+ D A+ +24 A+ B D+
 Tue, Jan 6 101 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 37% -20  0% 6 - 7 2 - 1 F -24 F+ -8 D D C F -15 F F B+
 Fri, Jan 9 92 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 32% -0  50% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C +1 D- -7 D- C+ F A- +7 A+ F A
 Tue, Jan 13 60 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 42% +0  38% 7 - 8 3 - 2 B +10 B- +4 B B- C- B+ +5 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 224 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 69% +7  96% 8 - 8 4 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +16 A+ F A C+ +1 C- B- A+
 Tue, Jan 20 41 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 14% -3  21% 9 - 8 5 - 2 A+ +26 A+ +19 A A A- A- +8 A+ B- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 48 San Diego St. L 71 - 82 34% -4  29% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 A+ D B D- -7 F A+ B+
 Tue, Jan 27 50 New Mexico L 61 - 89 36% -18  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -20 F -14 F+ F D D+ -4 D A D+
 Fri, Jan 30 81 @Nevada L 76 - 89 28% -11  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 C- -3 B+ +9 A F+ B+ F -12 F C- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 129 @Fresno St. L 96 - 98 48% +4  81% 9 - 12 5 - 6 C+ +3 A +14 A+ C F F -10 F C- B-
 Sat, Feb 7 62 Grand Canyon W 80 - 78 43% +7  88% 10 - 12 6 - 6 B +8 B+ +9 B- A- C+ C -1 B+ A D+
 Tue, Feb 10 224 San Jose St. W 82 - 75 85% +4  88% 11 - 12 7 - 6 C +0 C+ +3 C- C- A C- -3 A- F+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 60 @Boise St. W 86 - 83 OT 22% -9  5% 12 - 12 8 - 6 A- +15 A+ +16 B+ A+ A- C -1 D A+ B-
 Wed, Feb 18 92 Colorado St. L 86 - 91 55% -6  7% 12 - 13 8 - 7 C- -2 A+ +15 A B- B+ F -17 F C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 344 @Air Force W 91 - 66 90% +6  72% 13 - 13 9 - 7 A- +15 A +14 A+ F A+ C+ +2 A- F C+
 Wed, Feb 25 62 @Grand Canyon L 67 - 80 23% -12  0% 13 - 14 9 - 8 C -1 C +2 B- D- A+ C- -2 F A- B-
 Sat, Feb 28 81 Nevada W 85 - 83 OT 50% -0  39% 14 - 14 10 - 8 B- +6 B- +5 A- A- F+ C+ +1 B- C+ A-
 Tue, Mar 3 41 Utah St. W 92 - 65 29% +7  76% 15 - 14 11 - 8 A+ +37 A+ +19 A+ B+ A- A+ +18 A+ A D+
 Fri, Mar 6 48 @San Diego St. L 73 - 83 17%
Totals 15 - 15 11 - 9 +4 B- +4 A+ B C+ C +0 B+ D+ B-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ A- B+ B 44% 40% 36% C+ B C+ D- C- C+ B+ D+ B- C C+ B- C- C+ 42% 22% 36% C C+ C+ D+ C- C+ F+ C D-
1.15 59% 46% 38% +4 0 1.11 32% 0.9 .29 16% .36 69% .25 1.09 56% 36% 35% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.1 .32 18% .37 72% .26
Nov
4		 Tennessee Martin D+ B- C+ D- C- 33% 19% 49% B- C C- A+ A+ F A+ B+ A+ D- A F D+ C- 30% 12% 58% D D+ A F D+ F+ F A+ F
1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48 1.07 47% 50% 34% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41
Nov
8		 Chattanooga A+ A+ A- C+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C A A+ A A+ B- A+ C+ A+ C F F B+ D 29% 21% 50% C+ D+ B+ D B- B C D- C-
1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45 1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21
Nov
11		 Montana B- A- A+ F B 48% 13% 39% A B+ C- F D- B+ A F B F D+ F F+ F 55% 18% 27% F+ F F C- F F+ F F F
1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24 1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35
Nov
16		 Memphis A- A+ A+ F+ A+ 44% 11% 45% A A+ C+ F F B+ B+ A A A- D- A+ A+ A 44% 27% 29% C- A A- F D+ A- F F F
1.15 83% 50% 28% +8 +2 1.22 34% 0.5 .16 18% .40 81% .32 0.98 65% 14% 20% -9 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .44 23% .49 80% .39
Nov
20		 Saint Joseph's A+ B D- A B+ 55% 25% 20% B+ B+ A+ F B C+ A+ D A+ D+ B A D C 37% 19% 44% B C B A+ A D F B F
1.24 61% 31% 40% +1 +1 1.06 51% 0.7 .37 15% .72 67% .49 1.07 52% 27% 36% -3 0 0.96 28% 0.7 .20 15% .50 71% .35
Nov
24		 Maryland F+ F A+ D F+ 44% 9% 47% A- D C- F F D+ A D+ B+ B+ B+ F A+ A+ 37% 8% 55% F+ A- D D+ D- A+ D C+ D
0.92 42% 60% 31% -7 +2 0.91 25% 0.5 .13 18% .37 68% .25 1.01 50% 75% 22% -10 +1 0.86 40% 1.1 .45 27% .39 71% .28
Nov
25		 Alabama D+ D- A+ C B 38% 20% 42% B B D F F+ B- D- F F F C- F F F 40% 9% 51% C- F+ F C+ F+ B F D- F
0.97 46% 54% 33% -2 0 0.98 23% 0.7 .16 13% .20 50% .10 1.46 64% 80% 43% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.1 .50 15% .53 83% .44
Nov
27		 Rutgers D- F A+ F D 36% 29% 35% D D D- F F A+ C+ F D+ D+ A C A- A- 33% 38% 29% B A- D- C D C F D F
0.94 45% 56% 26% -3 -1 0.93 24% 0.7 .17 12% .26 63% .16 1.15 44% 39% 29% -7 -3 0.83 38% 1.1 .43 14% .61 78% .47
Dec
7		 Stanford C+ C+ B C B 46% 37% 17% D B- B F D C A+ F B- A A+ C- A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ F F F A+ F A+ F+
1.04 58% 42% 33% +1 -2 1.02 32% 0.7 .21 19% .46 59% .27 1.02 38% 38% 24% -14 0 0.73 48% 1.3 .62 22% .48 63% .30
Dec
13		 Tennessee St. F C- C- F F 51% 12% 37% B- F B- F F F A+ F A+ A+ C+ F A+ A- 46% 28% 26% D- B D F F A+ B A+ A+
0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36 0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09
Dec
20		 Fresno St. A A A+ A A+ 42% 11% 47% A- A+ F A+ A- C A+ A+ A+ C A+ C F+ B+ 51% 15% 34% F B D F F C A- C- B+
1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +2 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34 1.05 44% 38% 39% -5 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18
Jan
3		 Air Force F+ D+ D+ F F 50% 22% 28% B F A C B+ D A- F C- A+ A+ A A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% F A+ B B- B D+ B+ A+ A
1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20 0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11
Jan
6		 Wyoming F+ F F A+ F+ 65% 10% 25% A D C+ F D C A+ F A+ F F A F F 54% 6% 40% F F F F+ F B+ F D F
0.92 38% 25% 50% -8 +3 0.93 28% 0.7 .20 17% .75 56% .42 1.36 69% 33% 42% +11 +3 1.29 44% 1.1 .50 19% .50 79% .40
Jan
9		 Colorado St. D- F A D- F+ 42% 19% 40% B D- A- F C+ F A+ F A+ A- A+ B F+ A+ 36% 17% 47% C A+ F F F A F A F
0.97 44% 50% 29% -6 +1 0.91 35% 0.9 .32 25% .52 60% .31 1.09 38% 33% 41% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.3 .55 23% .61 70% .43
Jan
13		 Boise St. B- B+ B B B+ 31% 33% 35% D B A+ F B- C- A+ C+ A+ B+ D F A+ C 56% 22% 22% C- C A+ A+ A+ B+ F B- F
1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30 1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34
Jan
17		 San Jose St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 19% 45% D+ A+ F F F A D- A+ C C+ B- A+ F D+ 38% 35% 26% C+ C- F A+ B- A+ F F F
1.35 65% 56% 52% +18 0 1.38 22% 0.4 .09 12% .24 92% .22 1.10 54% 25% 56% +2 -2 1.03 43% 0.7 .30 21% .47 86% .41
Jan
20		 Utah St. A+ F+ A A+ A 51% 23% 26% B A A B- A A- A+ A+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% D- A+ B- C B- D- F A+ F+
1.26 46% 45% 58% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .44 84% .37 1.11 56% 0% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 1.2 .38 12% .51 55% .28
Jan
24		 San Diego St. B- A+ B B- A+ 27% 29% 44% D- A+ D D D B A F C- D- F A+ F F 30% 40% 30% A+ F A+ F A+ B+ F F F
1.05 92% 38% 35% +10 -2 1.18 24% 0.9 .21 19% .40 55% .22 1.21 92% 24% 62% +17 -3 1.30 14% 1.3 .19 19% .47 85% .40
Jan
27		 New Mexico F A F F F 41% 28% 31% C F+ F+ F F D C+ B+ B- D+ C F F+ D+ 53% 9% 38% F+ D C+ A+ A D+ B- C+ B
0.82 68% 13% 18% -10 -1 0.80 18% 0.7 .13 21% .29 76% .22 1.19 58% 60% 41% +6 +3 1.19 29% 0.7 .21 13% .28 72% .20
Jan
30		 Nevada B+ C- B- A+ A+ 32% 23% 45% D+ A C F F+ B+ F A+ F F D F+ F F 49% 23% 28% D- F A+ F C- D- F C+ F
1.13 53% 42% 46% +7 -1 1.15 26% 0.8 .21 15% .19 82% .16 1.33 61% 45% 54% +11 0 1.26 19% 2.0 .38 10% .52 74% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Fresno St. A A+ A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% D+ A+ A+ F C F A+ D+ A+ F F C F F 30% 41% 30% A+ F A F C- B- F B- F
1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41 1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50
Feb
7		 Grand Canyon B+ D+ B- C+ B 27% 37% 35% F B- A C A- C+ C A+ A C A B+ D+ A- 41% 22% 37% C+ B+ B- A+ A D+ F C+ F
1.11 50% 42% 33% -1 -3 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 17% .32 95% .30 1.09 47% 30% 35% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .25 15% .58 74% .43
Feb
10		 San Jose St. C+ F+ A+ C+ C- 41% 20% 39% C- C- C+ D- C- A A- D B C- A+ B- F+ A- 26% 37% 37% A- A- A- F F+ F D D- D-
1.21 52% 60% 35% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 13% .36 71% .26 1.11 29% 35% 40% -5 -3 0.85 27% 1.6 .44 10% .33 80% .26
Feb
13		 Boise St. A+ D- A- A+ A- 25% 34% 41% D- B+ A A+ A+ A- D A D+ C C- A+ F D- 44% 19% 38% C+ D A A A+ B- D- F F
1.24 50% 47% 43% +7 -3 1.11 31% 1.5 .44 12% .21 77% .16 1.19 62% 22% 50% +8 +1 1.19 27% 0.9 .23 17% .40 91% .36
Feb
18		 Colorado St. A+ C+ A+ A A 44% 13% 42% A A A- D- B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F F D- D F 45% 18% 37% C- F C- C C- F F B F
1.32 61% 57% 41% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 12% .40 74% .30 1.39 82% 44% 39% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.1 .37 11% .46 74% .34
Feb
21		 Air Force A A- A+ A+ A+ 29% 40% 31% F A+ F A+ F A+ F A- F C+ A A+ C A 51% 20% 29% C- A- F F F C+ A+ F B+
1.32 71% 61% 50% +20 -3 1.36 12% 1.3 .15 6% .20 77% .15 0.96 46% 20% 33% -10 +1 0.84 32% 1.3 .42 22% .19 80% .15
Feb
25		 Grand Canyon C F C+ A+ C 52% 19% 29% A B- F+ D+ D- A+ A+ F C C- D B- F F 48% 21% 31% C- F A B- A- B- F B- F
0.96 37% 40% 47% -5 +1 0.94 17% 1.0 .17 12% .46 50% .23 1.15 65% 33% 54% +11 +1 1.26 26% 1.0 .26 19% .55 74% .41
Feb
28		 Nevada B- C+ C+ A+ A 47% 20% 33% B- A- A+ D A- F+ A+ D- A+ C+ C A+ F B- 42% 31% 27% C+ B- B- C- C+ A- F B F
1.13 57% 40% 44% +4 +1 1.12 38% 1.1 .41 21% .49 66% .32 1.10 55% 20% 46% -2 -1 0.96 32% 1.1 .34 17% .58 72% .42
Mar
3		 Utah St. A+ A+ A+ A A+ 35% 17% 48% B- A+ D+ A+ B+ A- C- A+ C+ A+ C A A+ A+ 34% 15% 51% B+ A+ A B- A D+ C- C+ C
1.31 72% 67% 40% +14 0 1.31 27% 1.4 .38 17% .29 82% .24 0.92 61% 25% 19% -13 0 0.77 28% 1.1 .30 13% .33 70% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 2.6 2.6 4th
5th 0.5 14.6 15.0 5th
6th 31.4 31.4 6th
7th 50.9 50.9 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 82.8 17.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 17.2% 2.8% 2.8% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 16.7
11-9 82.8% 1.0% 1.0% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 82.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 11.7 98.7 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 11.4 1.0 59.8 39.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5%
Lose Out 28.0%