UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +2.6 125
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 117
Pace 74.0 46
Improvement +2.1 104

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- 87 B C- C+ B C+
Defense C- 211 C C- C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 56 C+ 59% 136 +3.3 68
2 Pt. Jumpers 40% 151 B+ 45% 30 +1.5 94
Three Pointers 36% 281 B 37% 63 -0.9 216
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 144 B +3.4 74
1st FG Attempt B 1.10 72
Second Chance B- 33.5% 91 D- 0.88 346 C- 0.29 218
Turnovers C+ 16.4% 153
Freethrows B+ 0.36 24 D+ 70% 261 B 0.25 58
Total Offense B- +3.8 87

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots C 50% 155 B- 9.3% 88
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 172 C- 6.0% 253
Three Pointers B- 89% 72 B 0.3% 51
Total C 56% 177 C+ 5.4% 165

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 101 C+ 56% 133 +1.2 222
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 132 C 38% 175 +0.4 219
Three Pointers 36% 307 C- 35% 217 -2.0 101
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 181 C -0.4 172
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 168
Second Chance C+ 29.5% 151 D+ 1.10 279 C- 0.32 220
Turnovers C+ 17.7% 126
Freethrows F+ 0.38 348 C 72% 151 D- 0.27 340
Total Defense C- -1.2 211

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D+ 53% 289 B- 13.2% 85
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 297 B- 6.8% 75
Three Pointers D+ 86% 254 D+ 0.5% 249
Total C- 59% 251 B- 7.2% 66

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 16.1 58 17.2 168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 109 0.16 119
Improvement +3.4 #37 -1.3 #264

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 12.6
.500 or above 19% 21% 3%
.500 or above in Conference 61% 67% 20%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round1% 1% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 5
Quad 24 - 67 - 10
Quad 33 - 49 - 14
Quad 45 - 315 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 217 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 80% +1  48% 0 - 1 D -11 D -5 C- A F D -6 C- D+ F+
 Sat, Nov 8 282 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 88% +11  92% 1 - 1 A +22 A+ +23 A A+ B C +0 D B- B
 Tue, Nov 11 183 Montana L 93 - 102 75% -6  11% 1 - 2 D- -13 B- +4 A- D- B+ F -16 F+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 103 @Memphis W 92 - 78 30% +11  95% 2 - 2 A +22 A +12 A+ F B+ A- +8 A C- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 130 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 64% +4  75% 3 - 2 B+ +13 A+ +15 B+ B- C D+ -3 C A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 107 Maryland L 67 - 74 44% +0  54% 3 - 3 C- -3 F+ -10 D F C- A- +7 A- D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 19 Alabama L 76 - 115 8% -16  5% 3 - 4 F -21 D+ -3 B D- B- F -13 F+ F+ B+
 Thu, Nov 27 110 Rutgers L 65 - 80 45% -3  27% 3 - 5 D -11 F+ -8 D+ F A+ C- -3 A- D C-
 Sun, Dec 7 75 @Stanford W 75 - 74 22% -2  24% 4 - 5 B+ +12 C+ +3 B- D C A +9 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 246 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 83% +2  65% 4 - 6 D -11 F -22 F F F A+ +11 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 133 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 65% +4  74% 5 - 6 1 - 0 B +11 A- +11 A+ A- C C -0 B F C-
 Sat, Jan 3 347 Air Force W 67 - 39 95% +15  99% 6 - 6 2 - 0 B+ +12 F+ -9 F B+ D+ A+ +23 A+ B D+
 Tue, Jan 6 104 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 32% -20  0% 6 - 7 2 - 1 F -25 F+ -9 D D+ C F -14 F F B+
 Fri, Jan 9 96 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 29% -0  50% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C +0 D- -7 D- C+ F B+ +6 A+ F A
 Tue, Jan 13 65 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 38% +0  38% 7 - 8 3 - 2 B +10 B- +4 B B- C B +5 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 221 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 61% +7  96% 8 - 8 4 - 2 B+ +14 A+ +17 A+ F A+ C -0 C- B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 28 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 8% -3  21% 9 - 8 5 - 2 A+ +28 A+ +20 A+ A A- A- +8 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 43 San Diego St. L 71 - 82 27% -4  29% 9 - 9 5 - 3 C- -2 B +6 A+ D+ B+ F+ -8 F A+ B
 Tue, Jan 27 46 New Mexico L 61 - 89 28% -18  0% 9 - 10 5 - 4 F -19 F -14 F+ F D D+ -4 D+ A D+
 Fri, Jan 30 79 @Nevada L 76 - 89 24% -11  0% 9 - 11 5 - 5 C- -3 B+ +8 A F B F -12 F C- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 133 @Fresno St. L 96 - 98 42% +4  81% 9 - 12 5 - 6 C+ +3 A +13 A+ C F F -10 F C C+
 Sat, Feb 7 59 Grand Canyon W 80 - 78 36% +7  88% 10 - 12 6 - 6 B +8 B+ +9 B- B+ B- C -1 B+ A D+
 Tue, Feb 10 221 San Jose St. W 82 - 75 80% +4  88% 11 - 12 7 - 6 C +1 B- +4 C D+ A D+ -3 A- F+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 65 @Boise St. W 86 - 83 OT 20% -9  5% 12 - 12 8 - 6 A- +15 A+ +16 B A+ A C -1 D A B-
 Wed, Feb 18 96 Colorado St. L 86 - 91 51% -6  7% 12 - 13 8 - 7 C- -3 A+ +15 A B- B+ F -18 F C- F
 Sat, Feb 21 347 @Air Force W 82 - 69 88%
 Wed, Feb 25 59 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 82 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 79 Nevada L 77 - 79 44%
 Tue, Mar 3 28 Utah St. L 76 - 86 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 43 @San Diego St. L 71 - 83 12%
Totals 14 - 16 10 - 10 +3 B- +4 F+ B C+ C- -1 B D+ B



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C+ B+ B B 43% 40% 36% C+ B B- D- C- C+ B+ D+ B C- C+ C C- C 42% 22% 36% C C C+ D+ C- C+ F+ C D-
1.14 59% 45% 37% +3 0 1.10 34% 0.9 .29 16% .36 70% .25 1.10 56% 38% 35% 0 0 1.01 30% 1.1 .32 18% .38 72% .26
Nov
4		 Tennessee Martin D B- C+ D- C- 33% 19% 49% C+ C- C- A+ A F A+ A- A+ D A F D+ C- 30% 12% 58% D C- A F D+ F+ F A+ F
1.01 64% 38% 29% -2 0 0.98 31% 1.5 .47 27% .64 76% .48 1.07 47% 50% 34% -2 +1 1.00 28% 1.3 .35 17% .73 56% .41
Nov
8		 Chattanooga A+ A+ A- C+ A+ 41% 18% 41% C+ A A+ A A+ B A+ C A+ C F F B+ D 29% 21% 50% C+ D B+ D B- B C D- C-
1.49 80% 44% 35% +11 0 1.24 52% 1.4 .71 12% .62 73% .45 1.02 71% 50% 29% +3 -1 1.06 16% 1.2 .19 18% .27 80% .21
Nov
11		 Montana B- A- A+ F B+ 48% 13% 39% A A- C- F D- B+ A F+ B F D+ F F+ F+ 55% 18% 27% D- F+ F C- F F+ F F F
1.15 70% 63% 25% +4 +2 1.13 28% 0.7 .21 12% .38 63% .24 1.26 63% 60% 40% +9 +1 1.24 33% 1.1 .37 16% .40 89% .35
Nov
16		 Memphis A A+ A+ D- A+ 44% 11% 45% A A+ C+ F F B+ B+ A A A- D- A+ A+ A 44% 27% 29% C A A- F C- B+ F F F
1.15 83% 50% 28% +8 +2 1.22 34% 0.5 .16 18% .40 81% .32 0.98 65% 14% 20% -9 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .44 23% .49 80% .39
Nov
20		 Saint Joseph's A+ B D- A B 55% 25% 20% A- B+ A+ F B- C A+ D+ A+ D+ B A- D C 37% 19% 44% B C B+ A+ A+ D F B F
1.24 61% 31% 40% +1 +1 1.06 51% 0.7 .37 15% .72 67% .49 1.07 52% 27% 36% -3 0 0.96 28% 0.7 .20 15% .50 71% .35
Nov
24		 Maryland F+ F A+ D F+ 44% 9% 47% A- D D+ F F C- A C- B+ A- B+ F A+ A 37% 8% 55% F+ A- D- D+ D- A+ D+ C D+
0.92 42% 60% 31% -7 +2 0.91 25% 0.5 .13 18% .37 68% .25 1.01 50% 75% 22% -10 +1 0.86 40% 1.1 .45 27% .39 71% .28
Nov
25		 Alabama D+ D- A+ C B 38% 20% 42% B B D+ F D- B- F+ F F F C- F F F 40% 9% 51% C- F+ F C+ F+ B+ F F+ F
0.97 46% 54% 33% -2 0 0.98 23% 0.7 .16 13% .20 50% .10 1.46 64% 80% 43% +13 +2 1.31 44% 1.1 .50 15% .53 83% .44
Nov
27		 Rutgers F+ F A+ F D+ 36% 29% 35% D+ D+ F+ F F A+ C+ F D+ C- A C A- A- 33% 38% 29% B A- D C D C- F D F
0.94 45% 56% 26% -3 -1 0.93 24% 0.7 .17 12% .26 63% .16 1.15 44% 39% 29% -7 -3 0.83 38% 1.1 .43 14% .61 78% .47
Dec
7		 Stanford C+ C+ B C B 46% 37% 17% D+ B- B F D C A+ F B- A A+ C A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% A A+ F F F A+ F A+ F+
1.04 58% 42% 33% +1 -1 1.02 32% 0.7 .21 19% .46 59% .27 1.02 38% 38% 24% -14 0 0.73 48% 1.3 .62 22% .48 63% .30
Dec
13		 Tennessee St. F C- D+ F F 51% 12% 37% B- F C+ F F F A+ F A A+ C+ F A+ B+ 46% 28% 26% D- B D- F F A+ B A+ A+
0.84 57% 40% 20% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.5 .18 25% .60 59% .36 0.88 57% 50% 8% -8 0 0.86 36% 1.2 .44 25% .24 38% .09
Dec
20		 Fresno St. A- A A+ A A+ 42% 11% 47% B+ A+ F A+ A- C A+ A+ A+ C A+ C F+ B+ 51% 15% 34% F+ B D F F C- A- C- A-
1.22 74% 60% 38% +12 +2 1.29 18% 2.3 .41 19% .39 86% .34 1.05 44% 38% 39% -5 +2 0.96 33% 1.2 .41 17% .23 77% .18
Jan
3		 Air Force F+ D+ D+ F F 50% 22% 28% B F A- C B+ D+ B+ F D+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ 52% 8% 40% F A+ B B- B D+ B+ A+ A
1.03 56% 36% 21% -7 +1 0.90 38% 1.1 .41 17% .37 55% .20 0.60 36% 25% 16% -23 +3 0.60 19% 1.0 .19 20% .25 46% .11
Jan
6		 Wyoming F+ F F A+ F+ 65% 10% 25% A D C+ F+ D+ C A+ F A+ F F A F F 54% 6% 40% F F F F+ F B+ F D+ F
0.92 38% 25% 50% -8 +3 0.93 28% 0.7 .20 17% .75 56% .42 1.36 69% 33% 42% +11 +3 1.29 44% 1.1 .50 19% .50 79% .40
Jan
9		 Colorado St. D- F A D- F+ 42% 19% 40% B D- A- F C+ F A+ F A+ B+ A+ B- F+ A+ 36% 17% 47% C A+ F F F A F A- F
0.97 44% 50% 29% -6 +1 0.91 35% 0.9 .32 25% .52 60% .31 1.09 38% 33% 41% -3 0 0.97 41% 1.3 .55 23% .61 70% .43
Jan
13		 Boise St. B- B+ B B B+ 31% 33% 35% D B A+ F B- C A+ B- A+ B D F A+ C 56% 22% 22% C C A+ A+ A+ B+ F C+ F+
1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30 1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34
Jan
17		 San Jose St. A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 36% 19% 45% C- A+ F F F A+ D A+ C+ C C+ A+ F D+ 38% 35% 26% C+ C- F A+ B- A F F F
1.35 65% 56% 52% +18 0 1.38 22% 0.4 .09 12% .24 92% .22 1.10 54% 25% 56% +2 -2 1.03 43% 0.7 .30 21% .47 86% .41
Jan
20		 Utah St. A+ F+ A A+ A+ 51% 23% 26% B A+ A B A A- A+ A+ A+ A- B A+ A+ A+ 50% 6% 44% D- A+ B B- B+ D- F A+ D-
1.26 46% 45% 58% +5 +1 1.13 42% 1.1 .45 18% .44 84% .37 1.11 56% 0% 27% -8 +3 0.92 33% 1.2 .38 12% .51 55% .28
Jan
24		 San Diego St. B A+ B B- A+ 27% 29% 44% D- A+ D+ C- D+ B+ A+ F C F+ F A+ F F 30% 40% 30% A F A+ F A+ B F F F
1.05 92% 38% 35% +10 -2 1.18 24% 0.9 .21 19% .40 55% .22 1.21 92% 24% 62% +17 -3 1.30 14% 1.3 .19 19% .47 85% .40
Jan
27		 New Mexico F A F F F+ 41% 28% 31% C F+ F+ F F D C+ B C+ D+ C F F+ D+ 53% 9% 38% F+ D+ C+ A+ A D+ B- B- B-
0.82 68% 13% 18% -10 -1 0.80 18% 0.7 .13 21% .29 76% .22 1.19 58% 60% 41% +6 +3 1.19 29% 0.7 .21 13% .28 72% .20
Jan
30		 Nevada B+ C- B- A+ A+ 32% 23% 45% D+ A C- F F B F A+ F F D F+ F F 49% 23% 28% F+ F A+ F C- D- F B- F
1.13 53% 42% 46% +7 -1 1.15 26% 0.8 .21 15% .19 82% .16 1.33 61% 45% 54% +11 0 1.26 19% 2.0 .38 10% .52 74% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Fresno St. A A+ A+ A A+ 32% 23% 45% D+ A+ A+ F C F A+ D A+ F F C- F F 30% 41% 30% A+ F A F C C+ F B- F
1.21 87% 55% 38% +16 -1 1.32 41% 0.8 .31 24% .60 69% .41 1.23 85% 39% 62% +20 -3 1.36 22% 1.3 .30 19% .68 73% .50
Feb
7		 Grand Canyon B+ D+ B- C+ B+ 27% 37% 35% F B- A C- B+ B- C A+ A C A B+ D+ B+ 41% 22% 37% C+ B+ B A+ A D+ F C+ F
1.11 50% 42% 33% -1 -3 0.94 35% 1.1 .38 17% .32 95% .30 1.09 47% 30% 35% -5 0 0.91 30% 0.8 .25 15% .58 74% .43
Feb
10		 San Jose St. B- F+ A+ C+ C 41% 20% 39% C- C C+ F+ D+ A A- D B D+ A+ B- F+ A- 26% 37% 37% A- A- A- F F+ F D F+ F+
1.21 52% 60% 35% +3 0 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 13% .36 71% .26 1.11 29% 35% 40% -5 -3 0.85 27% 1.6 .44 10% .33 80% .26
Feb
13		 Boise St. A+ D- A- A+ A- 25% 34% 41% F+ B A A+ A+ A D- A D+ C D+ A+ F D- 44% 19% 38% B- D A A- A B- D F F
1.24 50% 47% 43% +7 -3 1.11 31% 1.5 .44 12% .21 77% .16 1.19 62% 22% 50% +8 +1 1.19 27% 0.9 .23 17% .40 91% .36
Feb
18		 Colorado St. A+ C+ A+ A A 44% 13% 42% A- A A- F+ B- B+ A+ B+ A+ F F F+ D F 45% 18% 37% C- F C- C- C- F F B- F
1.32 61% 57% 41% +8 +1 1.21 35% 1.0 .35 12% .40 74% .30 1.39 82% 44% 39% +15 +1 1.33 33% 1.1 .37 11% .46 74% .34



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.1 1.2 4th
5th 2.3 8.1 2.2 0.0 12.6 5th
6th 1.9 17.3 7.9 0.2 27.3 6th
7th 0.5 18.2 18.5 1.1 38.3 7th
8th 2.7 14.1 1.8 18.7 8th
9th 1.2 0.5 1.6 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 4.5 34.6 39.9 17.2 3.4 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.2% 4.2% 4.2% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-8 3.4% 1.6% 1.6% 11.1 0.1 0.0 3.4
11-9 17.2% 0.8% 0.8% 11.4 0.1 0.1 17.1
10-10 39.9% 0.5% 0.5% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 39.7
9-11 34.6% 0.3% 0.3% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 34.5
8-12 4.5% 4.5
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 12.1 99.5 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%