UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#122
Expected Predictive Rating-22.8#363
Pace67.0#239
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.9#107
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#144
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.9% 2.8% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.5% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.3 11.2 12.5
.500 or above 30.0% 38.0% 15.6%
.500 or above in Conference 38.4% 44.8% 27.0%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.0% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 4.2% 9.2%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round1.8% 2.6% 0.4%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 64.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 6
Quad 22 - 53 - 12
Quad 34 - 47 - 16
Quad 46 - 213 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 297   Tennessee Martin L 81-86 87%     0 - 1 -14.9 -6.4 -7.8
  Nov 08, 2025 134   Chattanooga W 74-70 64%    
  Nov 11, 2025 193   Montana W 75-68 76%    
  Nov 16, 2025 61   @ Memphis L 70-79 19%    
  Nov 20, 2025 114   Saint Joseph's W 72-70 57%    
  Nov 24, 2025 43   Maryland L 68-78 20%    
  Nov 26, 2025 19   Alabama L 73-87 11%    
  Dec 07, 2025 98   @ Stanford L 69-75 29%    
  Dec 13, 2025 252   Tennessee St. W 78-68 81%    
  Dec 20, 2025 232   Fresno St. W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 03, 2026 310   Air Force W 74-61 87%    
  Jan 06, 2026 158   @ Wyoming L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 09, 2026 76   @ Colorado St. L 66-74 26%    
  Jan 13, 2026 55   Boise St. L 67-72 33%    
  Jan 17, 2026 163   @ San Jose St. L 70-71 48%    
  Jan 20, 2026 53   @ Utah St. L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 24, 2026 39   San Diego St. L 65-72 26%    
  Jan 27, 2026 93   New Mexico L 74-75 47%    
  Jan 30, 2026 91   @ Nevada L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 03, 2026 232   @ Fresno St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 07, 2026 78   Grand Canyon L 74-76 45%    
  Feb 10, 2026 163   San Jose St. W 74-68 68%    
  Feb 13, 2026 55   @ Boise St. L 64-75 18%    
  Feb 18, 2026 76   Colorado St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 21, 2026 310   @ Air Force W 71-64 69%    
  Feb 25, 2026 78   @ Grand Canyon L 71-79 27%    
  Feb 28, 2026 91   Nevada L 66-67 49%    
  Mar 03, 2026 53   Utah St. L 71-76 32%    
  Mar 06, 2026 39   @ San Diego St. L 62-75 13%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.4 1.3 1.1 0.6 0.1 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.7 1.7 1.5 0.6 0.0 4.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 6.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.9 2.7 0.5 8.9 5th
6th 0.2 2.3 4.3 3.5 0.7 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.6 3.5 5.4 3.2 0.8 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 1.1 3.2 5.7 3.2 1.0 0.1 14.3 8th
9th 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.1 2.9 0.6 0.2 14.9 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 4.0 3.2 1.5 0.4 10.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.6 2.2 0.6 0.0 7.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.1 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.5 7.8 8.4 11.4 12.7 11.6 10.5 9.7 6.7 4.5 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.5 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 78.6% 0.4    0.3 0.1
16-4 41.4% 0.5    0.3 0.1
15-5 16.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.2
14-6 2.4% 0.1    0.1
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 100.0% 10.0 0.1 100.0%
17-3 0.5% 35.7% 35.7% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
16-4 1.1% 20.9% 10.5% 10.3% 10.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.9 11.6%
15-5 2.1% 9.0% 5.4% 3.6% 10.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.9 3.8%
14-6 3.2% 8.3% 7.1% 1.2% 10.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.9 1.3%
13-7 4.5% 5.9% 5.9% 11.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 4.3
12-8 6.7% 1.1% 1.1% 11.5 0.0 0.0 6.7
11-9 9.7% 2.7% 2.7% 11.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 9.4
10-10 10.5% 2.2% 2.2% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 10.2
9-11 11.6% 1.3% 1.3% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4
8-12 12.7% 12.7
7-13 11.4% 11.4
6-14 8.4% 8.4
5-15 7.8% 7.8
4-16 4.5% 4.5
3-17 3.0% 3.0
2-18 1.5% 1.5
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.9% 1.6% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.1 0.3%