UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.8#132
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#190
Pace76.2#37
Improvement+0.0#176

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#128
First Shot+2.2#114
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#226
Layup/Dunks+3.3#63
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#276
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement-2.8#346

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#146
First Shot+2.7#89
After Offensive Rebounds-2.4#328
Layups/Dunks+0.1#173
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.0#27
Freethrows-0.9#246
Improvement+2.8#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.1% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.1 13.3
.500 or above 19.2% 20.4% 6.0%
.500 or above in Conference 32.9% 34.7% 12.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.8% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.1% 10.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.1% 0.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 91.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 23 - 65 - 11
Quad 33 - 48 - 15
Quad 45 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 213 Tennessee Martin L 81-86 78%     0 - 1 -11.5 -4.4 -6.4
  Sat, Nov 8 234 Chattanooga W 101-69 81%     1 - 1 +24.5 +26.1 -0.5
  Tue, Nov 11 207 Montana L 93-102 78%     1 - 2 -15.2 +3.7 -17.6
  Sun, Nov 16 74 @Memphis W 92-78 20%     2 - 2 +24.6 +15.6 +7.3
  Thu, Nov 20 173 Saint Joseph's W 99-85 71%     3 - 2 +10.2 +14.6 -6.1
  Mon, Nov 24 95 Maryland L 67-74 35%     3 - 3 -1.2 -5.9 +5.0
  Tue, Nov 25 16 Alabama L 76-115 8%     3 - 4 -21.7 -0.5 -16.9
  Thu, Nov 27 146 Rutgers L 65-80 53%     3 - 5 -14.0 -5.7 -8.4
  Sun, Dec 7 82 @Stanford W 75-74 22%     4 - 5 +10.9 +4.9 +6.0
  Sat, Dec 13 238 Tennessee St. L 60-63 81%     4 - 6 -10.5 -15.3 +4.9
  Sat, Dec 20 186 Fresno St. W 84-72 73%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +7.2 +10.6 -3.1
  Sat, Jan 3 326 Air Force W 79-64 92%    
  Tue, Jan 6 102 @Wyoming L 76-82 29%    
  Fri, Jan 9 92 @Colorado St. L 74-81 25%    
  Tue, Jan 13 52 Boise St. L 72-77 31%    
  Sat, Jan 17 196 @San Jose St. W 77-76 54%    
  Tue, Jan 20 32 @Utah St. L 72-87 9%    
  Sat, Jan 24 53 San Diego St. L 74-79 32%    
  Tue, Jan 27 67 New Mexico L 80-83 37%    
  Fri, Jan 30 91 @Nevada L 73-80 25%    
  Tue, Feb 3 186 @Fresno St. W 79-78 52%    
  Sat, Feb 7 83 Grand Canyon L 75-77 42%    
  Tue, Feb 10 196 San Jose St. W 80-73 74%    
  Fri, Feb 13 52 @Boise St. L 69-80 16%    
  Wed, Feb 18 92 Colorado St. L 77-78 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 326 @Air Force W 76-67 78%    
  Wed, Feb 25 83 @Grand Canyon L 72-80 24%    
  Sat, Feb 28 91 Nevada L 76-77 45%    
  Tue, Mar 3 32 Utah St. L 75-84 22%    
  Fri, Mar 6 53 @San Diego St. L 71-82 16%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.5 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.0 0.2 0.0 6.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.3 3.3 0.5 9.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 5.3 5.0 1.0 0.0 12.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 6.6 6.5 1.6 0.1 17.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 4.1 7.6 6.7 1.9 0.1 21.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.6 3.4 0.9 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.4 6.7 11.2 13.7 15.8 15.0 12.2 8.9 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 96.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 65.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 35.7% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 48.0% 36.0% 12.0% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8%
16-4 0.3% 19.0% 17.7% 1.3% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5%
15-5 0.7% 8.5% 8.0% 0.5% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.5%
14-6 1.6% 5.6% 5.4% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.2%
13-7 3.3% 5.3% 5.2% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.1 0.1%
12-8 5.9% 3.0% 3.0% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.7
11-9 8.9% 1.9% 1.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 8.7
10-10 12.2% 0.9% 0.9% 12.6 0.0 0.1 12.1
9-11 15.0% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 14.9
8-12 15.8% 0.3% 0.3% 15.3 0.0 0.0 15.7
7-13 13.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-14 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.1
5-15 6.7% 6.7
4-16 3.4% 3.4
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 1.1% 1.0% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 98.9 0.0%