UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #130
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #140
Pace 74.5 #44
Improvement +1.1 #132

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 B- C- C B C+
Defense #186 C C- C+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #36 1.20 #125 +4.3 #43
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #188 0.89 #42 +1.1 #110
Three Pointers 36% #296 1.09 #77 -1.5 #235
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #68 +4.0 #67
Freethrows 0.38 #12 69% #292 0.26 #46
Second Chance 32.7% #116 0.85 #352 0.28 #256
Turnovers 16.9% #175
Total Offense +2.3 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.13 #132 -1.3 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #147 0.77 #201 -0.4 #221
Three Pointers 37% #298 1.02 #198 +2.1 #101
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #168 +0.4 #165
Freethrows 0.38 #343 71% #124 0.27 #337
Second Chance 30.2% #163 1.10 #283 0.33 #232
Turnovers 18.4% #97
Total Defense -0.5 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.0% #120 0.2% #186
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.7% #74 -0.9% #167
Possession Length 15.9 #53 17.2 #177
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #116 0.16 #124
Improvement +1.0 #124 +0.1 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.1 14.1
.500 or above 6.7% 13.8% 2.9%
.500 or above in Conference 23.3% 42.6% 12.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Grand Canyon (Home) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 5
Quad 23 - 65 - 12
Quad 33 - 48 - 15
Quad 45 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 200 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 76% +1  0 - 1 -10 -2 C A+ F -8 C C- F
 Sat, Nov 8 269 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 85% +11  1 - 1 +23 +27 A+ A+ B+ -3 D+ C B-
 Tue, Nov 11 171 Montana L 93 - 102 71% -6  1 - 2 -13 +7 A- F+ B+ -18 F+ F F+
 Sun, Nov 16 91 @Memphis W 92 - 78 25% +11  2 - 2 +23 +16 A+ F+ A- +5 A C- B+
 Thu, Nov 20 128 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 61% +4  3 - 2 +13 +17 B B- C+ -5 C A D
 Mon, Nov 24 116 Maryland L 67 - 74 46% +0  3 - 3 -4 -7 D- F C +3 B+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 20 Alabama L 76 - 115 8% -16  3 - 4 -22 -0 B D- B- -17 F+ F+ B
 Thu, Nov 27 118 Rutgers L 65 - 80 47% -3  3 - 5 -12 -7 D F A+ -6 B+ D+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 82 @Stanford W 75 - 74 23% -2  4 - 5 +11 +5 B- D C+ +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 237 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 81% +2  4 - 6 -10 -18 F F F +8 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 145 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 65% +4  5 - 6 1 - 0 +10 +14 A+ A- C+ -4 B F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 350 Air Force W 67 - 39 93% +15  6 - 6 2 - 0 +13 -5 F+ B C- +20 A+ B C-
 Tue, Jan 6 108 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 32% -20  6 - 7 2 - 1 -25 -6 D+ D+ C -19 F F B-
 Fri, Jan 9 102 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 28% -0  6 - 8 2 - 2 -0 -4 D C F +3 A+ F A-
 Tue, Jan 13 59 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 34% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 +10 +8 B B C+ +2 C- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 238 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 63% +7  8 - 8 4 - 2 +12 +19 A+ F A+ -3 C- B- A-
 Tue, Jan 20 32 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 8% -3  9 - 8 5 - 2 +27 +24 A+ A+ A +4 A+ B+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 44 San Diego St. L 71 - 82 25% -4  9 - 9 5 - 3 -2 +8 A+ C- B -10 F A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 27 49 New Mexico L 61 - 89 28% -18  9 - 10 5 - 4 -20 -11 D- F D+ -7 D A C-
 Fri, Jan 30 70 @Nevada L 76 - 89 19% -11  9 - 11 5 - 5 -2 +11 A+ F+ B -13 F C- D
 Tue, Feb 3 145 @Fresno St. L 96 - 98 42% +4  9 - 12 5 - 6 +2 +16 A+ C+ D- -14 F C- C-
 Sat, Feb 7 62 Grand Canyon L 74 - 78 35%
 Tue, Feb 10 238 San Jose St. W 81 - 72 81%
 Fri, Feb 13 59 @Boise St. L 72 - 82 17%
 Wed, Feb 18 102 Colorado St. W 75 - 74 50%
 Sat, Feb 21 350 @Air Force W 78 - 67 85%
 Wed, Feb 25 62 @Grand Canyon L 71 - 81 18%
 Sat, Feb 28 70 Nevada L 76 - 79 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 32 Utah St. L 74 - 84 19%
 Fri, Mar 6 44 @San Diego St. L 70 - 83 11%
Totals 13 - 17 9 - 11 +2 +2 B- C- C +0 C C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 4th
5th 0.3 1.6 0.7 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 5.8 3.6 0.3 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 5.0 15.6 9.0 0.9 0.0 30.6 7th
8th 0.1 3.2 13.8 8.2 0.6 25.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.1 8.8 8.3 0.7 18.8 9th
10th 0.4 3.8 4.9 0.8 0.0 9.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.5 4.9 17.0 27.9 26.3 15.7 6.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
12-8 1.3% 1.5% 1.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
11-9 6.2% 0.8% 0.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 6.1
10-10 15.7% 0.6% 0.6% 12.4 0.1 0.0 15.6
9-11 26.3% 0.3% 0.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 26.3
8-12 27.9% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 27.9
7-13 17.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 17.0
6-14 4.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 4.9
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 13.0 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%