Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Arizona 99.5%   2   6 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 4 +18.4      +13.8 1 +4.5 57 85.5 1 +24.1 3 0.0 1
9 UCLA 94.5%   5   5 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 8 15 - 5 +17.5      +9.8 12 +7.6 31 70.1 143 +8.7 72 0.0 1
40 Arizona St. 54.0%   10   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +10.5      +2.0 108 +8.5 19 68.5 186 +10.5 57 0.0 1
44 Colorado 44.7%   11   4 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 12 12 - 8 +10.1      +4.5 64 +5.6 49 76.5 39 +7.8 75 0.0 1
50 Oregon 28.8%   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 9 +9.6      +6.8 32 +2.7 94 69.0 172 +4.9 105 0.0 1
51 Washington St. 28.9%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +9.5      +5.4 46 +4.0 69 66.3 247 +1.5 158 0.0 1
70 Utah 15.1%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 13 10 - 10 +7.9      +3.3 84 +4.6 55 66.6 236 +4.8 106 0.0 1
73 USC 16.2%   5 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 9 - 10 +7.6      +2.6 97 +5.0 51 69.9 146 +5.4 101 0.0 1
79 Stanford 6.9%   3 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 16 9 - 11 +7.0      +1.3 131 +5.7 47 65.8 257 +1.9 147 0.0 1
91 Washington 12.5%   6 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +5.7      +1.4 128 +4.3 62 72.7 85 +10.8 54 0.0 1
217 Oregon St. 0.2%   2 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 22 4 - 16 -3.1      -1.6 214 -1.6 224 64.7 282 -6.5 272 0.0 1
231 California 0.1%   0 - 8 0 - 0 5 - 26 3 - 16 -3.7      -3.8 291 +0.1 178 59.5 354 -15.1 342 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.8 56.8 26.2 9.2 4.1 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
UCLA 2.2 41.1 31.0 13.7 6.7 3.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Arizona St. 5.0 5.1 10.4 15.9 15.6 13.5 11.7 9.5 7.5 5.9 4.0 0.8 0.1
Colorado 4.8 5.0 12.1 18.8 16.0 13.6 10.9 8.5 6.6 4.8 2.9 0.6 0.1
Oregon 5.4 3.4 8.2 13.6 14.5 13.8 12.8 11.4 9.5 7.1 4.3 1.1 0.2
Washington St. 5.7 3.6 7.3 12.3 13.5 13.1 12.4 10.6 10.0 8.7 6.6 1.5 0.3
Utah 6.3 1.6 4.6 8.6 11.3 12.5 13.4 13.0 12.6 11.2 8.3 2.4 0.5
USC 7.1 0.5 2.0 5.2 7.9 10.1 12.4 14.1 15.2 15.1 13.0 3.7 0.7
Stanford 6.6 1.2 4.0 8.0 10.1 11.3 12.5 12.7 13.2 12.7 10.2 3.3 0.7
Washington 7.5 0.5 1.9 4.4 6.4 8.6 10.8 13.2 14.6 16.4 16.0 5.7 1.6
Oregon St. 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.7 5.6 13.1 40.0 36.1
California 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 4.1 10.6 38.6 44.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.8 9.4 13.3 16.8 18.3 16.1 10.2 3.7
UCLA 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.5 5.7 8.8 12.3 15.3 16.4 15.3 11.4 6.3 2.0
Arizona St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.6 7.1 9.7 12.3 13.4 13.5 12.1 9.5 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
Colorado 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.7 5.9 8.6 11.5 13.6 13.9 13.2 10.8 7.5 4.6 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Oregon 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.4 5.8 8.5 11.5 13.7 13.9 12.6 11.0 7.9 4.9 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.2 4.6 7.1 9.4 11.5 12.5 13.5 11.7 9.5 7.4 4.6 2.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.2 6.1 9.1 11.8 13.8 13.9 12.8 10.5 7.4 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.0
USC 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 5.4 8.9 12.1 14.8 14.7 13.7 10.6 7.3 4.7 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stanford 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.5 7.3 9.9 12.5 13.4 13.3 11.9 9.2 6.7 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington 8 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.1 7.2 10.5 13.2 14.2 13.9 12.0 8.8 6.2 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 4 - 16 4.4 12.3 18.2 19.8 16.5 11.9 7.8 4.6 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
California 3 - 17 5.7 14.7 21.0 20.8 16.4 10.5 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 56.8% 43.7 11.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UCLA 41.1% 29.4 10.1 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 5.1% 2.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Colorado 5.0% 2.4 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oregon 3.4% 1.6 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 3.6% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
USC 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
Stanford 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Washington 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0
California


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 99.5% 33.8% 65.6% 2   24.1 22.3 16.8 13.0 8.8 6.1 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.2%
UCLA 94.5% 28.0% 66.5% 5   9.1 10.8 11.6 13.7 12.0 10.5 9.5 6.7 4.6 3.5 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 92.4%
Arizona St. 54.0% 7.2% 46.8% 10   0.2 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.3 4.7 6.7 7.9 8.9 8.8 7.5 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 46.0 50.4%
Colorado 44.7% 6.4% 38.4% 11   0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 2.9 4.5 7.0 7.8 8.9 7.9 1.9 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 55.3 41.0%
Oregon 28.8% 5.9% 22.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.5 3.8 4.7 5.7 5.4 1.8 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 71.2 24.4%
Washington St. 28.9% 5.9% 23.0% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.7 3.0 4.3 4.5 5.2 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.4 71.1 24.4%
Utah 15.1% 3.8% 11.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 2.1 2.9 3.9 1.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 84.9 11.8%
USC 16.2% 3.3% 12.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.5 3.5 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 83.8 13.4%
Stanford 6.9% 3.1% 3.8% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 93.1 3.9%
Washington 12.5% 2.3% 10.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.9 2.7 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 87.5 10.4%
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%
California 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Arizona 99.5% 0.3% 99.3% 87.4% 59.6% 35.2% 19.5% 10.5% 5.5%
UCLA 94.5% 1.6% 93.9% 75.6% 46.0% 24.9% 13.3% 6.8% 3.4%
Arizona St. 54.0% 7.2% 50.4% 26.1% 8.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Colorado 44.7% 7.3% 41.2% 20.1% 6.0% 2.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Oregon 28.8% 5.6% 26.3% 12.8% 3.9% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0%
Washington St. 28.9% 4.9% 26.6% 13.4% 4.2% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Utah 15.1% 3.7% 13.4% 5.7% 1.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
USC 16.2% 4.0% 14.3% 5.8% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 6.9% 2.0% 6.2% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 12.5% 3.5% 10.6% 3.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.0 0.1 4.8 25.3 39.9 23.8 5.6 0.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 0.1 7.1 30.3 39.6 19.1 3.5 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 99.3% 2.5 0.7 10.2 39.5 36.7 11.5 1.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 85.8% 1.3 14.2 45.7 33.9 5.8 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 57.8% 0.7 42.2 46.3 10.9 0.7 0.0
Final Four 33.4% 0.4 66.6 30.7 2.7 0.0
Final Game 17.9% 0.2 82.1 17.4 0.4
Champion 9.2% 0.1 90.8 9.2