Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Arizona 98.9%   2   6 - 0 0 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 4 +18.0      +8.5 13 +9.5 2 79.9 19 +20.2 5 0.0 1
6 UCLA 98.1%   3   6 - 1 0 - 0 25 - 6 16 - 4 +17.6      +10.2 6 +7.4 25 70.7 143 +19.6 9 0.0 1
16 USC 91.3%   5   6 - 0 0 - 0 24 - 7 14 - 6 +14.9      +6.3 30 +8.6 7 66.7 244 +16.4 15 0.0 1
52 Oregon 24.2%   2 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 10 +8.5      +5.0 55 +3.5 78 67.4 232 +5.0 108 0.0 1
56 Utah 24.7%   5 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +8.0      +4.4 64 +3.7 74 67.8 225 +10.4 60 0.0 1
58 Washington St. 25.2%   5 - 1 0 - 0 19 - 12 10 - 10 +7.9      +5.3 46 +2.6 96 68.2 217 +4.6 116 0.0 1
75 Colorado 15.2%   5 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 9 - 11 +6.8      +3.9 73 +2.8 91 65.9 265 +4.7 115 0.0 1
96 Arizona St. 3.6%   2 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 19 8 - 12 +5.3      +3.9 77 +1.4 119 71.8 107 -4.0 233 0.0 1
98 Stanford 7.4%   4 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 12 +5.2      +1.3 128 +3.9 70 70.9 138 +5.6 97 0.0 1
128 California 1.0%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 19 6 - 14 +2.6      -0.7 197 +3.2 83 62.8 324 -1.1 195 0.0 1
129 Oregon St. 0.5%   1 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 21 6 - 14 +2.5      +0.9 140 +1.6 114 64.1 300 -10.8 313 0.0 1
146 Washington 0.6%   4 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 20 6 - 14 +1.5      -0.9 203 +2.4 99 75.0 58 -0.9 189 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Arizona 1.9 47.6 30.3 13.1 5.2 2.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UCLA 2.0 43.6 30.4 15.6 6.3 2.4 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
USC 3.0 20.6 23.2 26.5 13.7 7.9 3.7 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
Oregon 5.7 2.4 5.7 10.6 16.1 16.2 13.8 11.4 8.6 6.4 4.8 2.5 1.5
Utah 6.0 1.7 4.7 9.3 15.3 14.8 15.6 12.1 9.5 7.0 5.2 3.3 1.6
Washington St. 5.7 2.3 5.4 11.9 17.2 16.9 12.8 10.6 7.6 6.1 4.5 3.0 1.7
Colorado 6.7 1.1 2.6 6.3 11.5 13.9 13.5 12.1 12.8 10.1 6.8 5.6 3.8
Arizona St. 7.9 0.2 0.9 2.6 6.6 9.1 10.8 12.9 13.7 12.6 12.2 11.1 7.4
Stanford 7.8 0.4 1.2 2.9 7.3 9.1 12.0 12.4 12.9 12.6 11.6 11.0 6.7
California 9.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.4 5.3 7.7 9.6 11.8 14.1 16.2 15.9 15.5
Oregon St. 9.2 0.2 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.3 6.4 8.0 12.2 13.9 15.6 17.8 18.3
Washington 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.8 3.4 5.5 8.4 10.8 12.9 16.9 18.6 21.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Arizona 16 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.2 10.1 15.1 17.3 18.7 14.1 9.6 3.3
UCLA 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.0 4.1 6.9 10.1 14.3 18.2 18.5 14.2 7.1 2.9
USC 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 2.7 3.8 6.5 8.6 13.9 14.9 15.3 12.7 10.7 5.4 3.0 0.5
Oregon 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.8 4.7 8.1 10.0 11.3 12.7 12.5 11.2 9.5 6.4 4.1 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2
Utah 10 - 10 0.1 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.4 5.9 8.1 10.6 13.4 11.9 12.9 10.7 8.1 6.0 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1
Washington St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.7 5.5 6.8 9.0 10.7 13.6 12.1 11.3 9.8 7.8 4.4 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.1
Colorado 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.8 2.7 5.7 8.6 11.0 12.4 12.7 11.9 9.8 8.2 6.6 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1
Arizona St. 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.4 4.7 6.9 10.0 11.6 14.1 13.7 11.2 9.2 6.7 5.0 3.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stanford 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 6.8 9.1 11.9 13.4 12.7 11.6 9.2 8.3 4.8 3.5 1.4 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.1
California 6 - 14 0.5 1.8 4.2 6.9 10.9 14.2 14.5 13.5 11.3 8.9 6.1 3.9 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 6 - 14 0.8 1.6 4.8 9.1 12.5 14.7 13.6 14.0 10.7 7.3 4.8 3.3 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.0
Washington 6 - 14 0.4 2.6 5.5 9.7 14.1 15.2 15.0 12.4 9.7 6.6 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 47.6% 34.8 10.9 1.9 0.0 0.0
UCLA 43.6% 30.9 10.6 2.0 0.0 0.0
USC 20.6% 12.7 6.4 1.4 0.0 0.0
Oregon 2.4% 1.1 1.0 0.3
Utah 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 2.3% 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.0
Colorado 1.1% 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.0
Arizona St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0
Stanford 0.4% 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
California 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0
Washington 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 98.9% 36.3% 62.7% 2   23.9 21.4 16.2 13.1 8.8 6.3 3.6 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.2 1.1 98.3%
UCLA 98.1% 33.7% 64.4% 3   13.9 18.2 18.5 14.5 10.0 8.2 5.0 4.2 2.2 1.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.0 97.1%
USC 91.3% 18.4% 72.9% 5   6.2 8.4 11.7 10.7 11.5 10.9 7.9 7.9 5.7 4.9 4.1 1.4 0.0 8.7 89.3%
Oregon 24.2% 2.8% 21.4% 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 2.4 3.8 3.3 3.9 4.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 75.8 22.0%
Utah 24.7% 2.1% 22.6% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.9 1.8 2.0 2.7 3.4 4.3 6.1 2.3 0.3 75.3 23.0%
Washington St. 25.2% 2.8% 22.5% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 2.1 2.3 3.6 4.7 6.7 2.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 74.8 23.1%
Colorado 15.2% 1.5% 13.7% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.7 2.7 2.8 3.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 84.8 13.9%
Arizona St. 3.6% 0.7% 2.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.4 2.9%
Stanford 7.4% 0.9% 6.5% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 92.6 6.6%
California 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.0 0.7%
Oregon St. 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5 0.2%
Washington 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.4 0.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Arizona 98.9% 0.8% 98.6% 86.0% 59.7% 35.4% 19.1% 10.4% 5.8%
UCLA 98.1% 0.9% 97.6% 83.0% 54.6% 32.1% 17.7% 8.6% 4.1%
USC 91.3% 3.3% 89.8% 65.1% 35.0% 16.7% 7.7% 3.9% 1.4%
Oregon 24.2% 5.1% 22.1% 11.2% 3.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Utah 24.7% 5.6% 21.9% 10.6% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1%
Washington St. 25.2% 6.0% 22.2% 10.0% 2.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 15.2% 3.9% 13.2% 5.7% 1.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 3.6% 0.9% 3.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stanford 7.4% 2.0% 6.6% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.5% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 3.9 2.2 31.1 43.9 19.7 2.9 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 3.8 3.2 36.6 42.3 16.1 1.8 0.1
2nd Round 99.8% 2.8 0.3 5.4 31.4 45.8 15.1 2.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 91.4% 1.6 8.6 36.2 41.0 13.2 1.1 0.0
Elite Eight 67.4% 0.9 32.6 47.9 17.9 1.5 0.0
Final Four 40.7% 0.5 59.3 35.8 4.8 0.1
Final Game 22.8% 0.2 77.3 22.2 0.6
Champion 11.3% 0.1 88.7 11.3