Utah
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#52
Expected Predictive Rating+10.5#53
Pace72.1#79
Improvement-8.7#361

Offense
Total Offense+5.4#53
First Shot+5.5#41
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+5.8#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#300
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#79
Freethrows-1.0#257
Improvement-5.5#354

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#54
First Shot+2.5#98
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#42
Layups/Dunks+4.0#50
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#329
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#304
Freethrows+4.2#8
Improvement-3.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.1% 1.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.7% 50.1% 24.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.6% 46.2% 19.8%
Average Seed 9.5 9.3 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 56.5% 68.7% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four13.8% 14.6% 11.3%
First Round36.7% 42.7% 18.7%
Second Round15.7% 18.5% 7.5%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 4.1% 1.9%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.4% 0.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 75.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 8
Quad 25 - 39 - 11
Quad 36 - 215 - 12
Quad 43 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 145   Eastern Washington W 101-66 85%     1 - 0 +34.0 +13.3 +16.6
  Nov 10, 2023 204   UC Riverside W 82-53 92%     2 - 0 +23.5 +6.2 +17.2
  Nov 16, 2023 19   Wake Forest W 77-70 35%     3 - 0 +20.9 +13.9 +7.4
  Nov 17, 2023 2   Houston L 66-76 15%     3 - 1 +10.8 +6.6 +4.0
  Nov 19, 2023 39   St. John's L 82-91 46%     3 - 2 +1.9 +7.3 -4.6
  Nov 27, 2023 24   @ St. Mary's W 78-71 28%     4 - 2 +23.0 +16.2 +7.0
  Nov 30, 2023 153   Hawaii W 79-66 81%     5 - 2 +13.5 +11.7 +2.5
  Dec 05, 2023 224   Southern Utah W 88-86 92%     6 - 2 -4.0 +5.8 -9.9
  Dec 09, 2023 22   BYU W 73-69 46%     7 - 2 +14.8 +3.1 +11.7
  Dec 16, 2023 155   Utah Valley W 76-62 87%     8 - 2 +11.6 +4.4 +7.0
  Dec 20, 2023 310   Bellarmine W 85-43 96%     9 - 2 +31.0 +1.9 +26.8
  Dec 29, 2023 36   Washington St. W 80-58 54%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +30.8 +15.7 +16.1
  Dec 31, 2023 62   Washington W 95-90 64%     11 - 2 2 - 0 +11.1 +9.6 +0.7
  Jan 04, 2024 105   @ Arizona St. L 70-82 59%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -4.4 +0.1 -3.9
  Jan 06, 2024 4   @ Arizona L 73-92 12%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +3.8 +3.2 +2.3
  Jan 11, 2024 80   UCLA W 90-44 71%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +50.2 +23.5 +27.3
  Jan 14, 2024 98   @ Stanford L 73-79 56%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +2.4 +5.0 -2.7
  Jan 18, 2024 141   Oregon St. W 74-47 84%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +26.0 +10.5 +19.0
  Jan 21, 2024 53   Oregon W 80-77 62%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +9.8 +10.6 -0.7
  Jan 24, 2024 36   @ Washington St. L 57-79 34%     14 - 6 5 - 4 -7.7 -2.2 -7.8
  Jan 27, 2024 62   @ Washington L 73-98 43%     14 - 7 5 - 5 -13.4 +0.1 -11.8
  Feb 03, 2024 31   Colorado W 73-68 52%     15 - 7 6 - 5 +14.4 -1.0 +15.1
  Feb 08, 2024 4   Arizona L 99-105 3OT 24%     15 - 8 6 - 6 +11.3 +10.4 +2.3
  Feb 10, 2024 105   Arizona St. L 77-85 77%     15 - 9 6 - 7 -5.9 +2.6 -7.9
  Feb 15, 2024 96   @ USC L 64-68 55%     15 - 10 6 - 8 +4.6 -5.3 +9.9
  Feb 18, 2024 80   @ UCLA W 70-69 51%     16 - 10 7 - 8 +10.6 +11.8 -1.1
  Feb 24, 2024 31   @ Colorado L 65-89 31%     16 - 11 7 - 9 -9.1 +1.3 -11.6
  Feb 29, 2024 98   Stanford W 81-74 75%    
  Mar 02, 2024 100   California W 79-72 76%    
  Mar 07, 2024 141   @ Oregon St. W 73-68 68%    
  Mar 09, 2024 53   @ Oregon L 74-76 40%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 1.2 3rd
4th 1.5 10.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.6 19.8 5.1 25.5 5th
6th 8.6 16.6 0.5 25.7 6th
7th 0.9 16.7 1.6 19.2 7th
8th 3.4 4.9 0.0 8.3 8th
9th 0.1 4.6 0.3 5.0 9th
10th 1.2 2.0 0.0 3.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 1.5 10.9 31.2 39.6 16.9 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 16.9% 91.2% 8.8% 82.4% 8.2 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.1 4.6 1.5 0.1 1.5 90.3%
10-10 39.6% 53.8% 7.1% 46.7% 10.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 12.1 5.0 0.0 18.3 50.3%
9-11 31.2% 19.5% 5.7% 13.8% 10.7 0.0 0.0 1.7 4.3 0.1 25.1 14.6%
8-12 10.9% 7.8% 5.9% 1.9% 11.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.1 2.0%
7-13 1.5% 3.7% 3.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.7% 6.8% 36.9% 9.5 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.7 8.1 15.4 9.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 56.3 39.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 16.9% 91.2% 8.2 0.8 5.6 18.2 30.2 27.3 8.6 0.5
Lose Out 1.5% 3.7% 12.6 0.1 1.8 1.4 0.4