Utah
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.9#51
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#62
Pace66.6#228
Improvement+0.0#191

Offense
Total Offense+3.1#87
First Shot+0.6#157
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#28
Layup/Dunks+0.4#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#244
Freethrows+0.8#112
Improvement+0.3#128

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#25
First Shot+6.5#25
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#151
Layups/Dunks+1.1#134
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#283
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#41
Freethrows+2.9#17
Improvement-0.4#241
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 20.6% 11.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.7% 14.8% 6.2%
Average Seed 10.2 10.1 10.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 98.6% 99.8% 94.8%
Conference Champion 1.9% 2.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.7% 6.5% 3.4%
First Round15.5% 17.4% 9.7%
Second Round6.5% 7.4% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.3% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 75.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 23 - 46 - 11
Quad 33 - 010 - 12
Quad 410 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 363   LIU Brooklyn W 89-48 99%     1 - 0 +20.0 +1.8 +15.4
  Nov 11, 2022 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 72-44 96%     2 - 0 +17.2 +4.5 +15.9
  Nov 14, 2022 283   Idaho St. W 70-58 95%     3 - 0 +2.7 -5.1 +8.2
  Nov 17, 2022 82   Sam Houston St. L 55-65 72%     3 - 1 -6.2 -10.4 +3.5
  Nov 21, 2022 172   Georgia Tech W 68-64 82%     4 - 1 +4.0 +0.6 +3.6
  Nov 23, 2022 55   Mississippi St. L 49-52 51%     4 - 2 +6.5 -8.1 +14.2
  Nov 26, 2022 266   St. Thomas W 95-66 94%     5 - 2 +20.7 +19.7 +2.5
  Dec 01, 2022 9   Arizona W 81-66 38%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +28.1 +6.2 +20.6
  Dec 04, 2022 63   @ Washington St. W 67-65 OT 45%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +13.2 -4.8 +17.9
  Dec 08, 2022 257   Jacksonville St. W 99-58 94%     8 - 2 +33.2 +25.3 +9.3
  Dec 13, 2022 312   Texas San Antonio W 91-70 96%     9 - 2 +10.1 +3.4 +4.9
  Dec 17, 2022 81   @ BYU L 66-75 52%     9 - 3 +0.3 -5.3 +6.4
  Dec 21, 2022 15   TCU L 71-75 32%     9 - 4 +10.7 +5.0 +5.8
  Dec 29, 2022 224   @ California W 58-43 83%     10 - 4 3 - 0 +14.8 -4.7 +21.8
  Dec 31, 2022 90   @ Stanford W 71-66 56%     11 - 4 4 - 0 +13.2 +7.3 +6.3
  Jan 05, 2023 185   Oregon St. W 79-60 89%     12 - 4 5 - 0 +15.4 +10.9 +5.6
  Jan 07, 2023 48   Oregon L 60-70 60%     12 - 5 5 - 1 -2.7 -8.8 +5.8
  Jan 12, 2023 5   @ UCLA L 49-68 15%     12 - 6 5 - 2 +1.8 -5.8 +5.1
  Jan 14, 2023 44   @ USC L 56-71 37%     12 - 7 5 - 3 -1.8 -3.6 +0.1
  Jan 19, 2023 63   Washington St. W 77-63 66%     13 - 7 6 - 3 +19.7 +17.6 +4.0
  Jan 21, 2023 102   Washington W 86-61 78%     14 - 7 7 - 3 +26.6 +19.3 +8.5
  Jan 26, 2023 185   @ Oregon St. W 63-44 78%     15 - 7 8 - 3 +20.9 +3.7 +20.5
  Jan 28, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 56-68 39%     15 - 8 8 - 4 +0.7 -2.9 +1.7
  Feb 02, 2023 90   Stanford W 70-63 76%    
  Feb 05, 2023 224   California W 70-54 93%    
  Feb 11, 2023 61   Colorado W 69-65 66%    
  Feb 16, 2023 9   @ Arizona L 69-78 20%    
  Feb 18, 2023 66   @ Arizona St. L 65-66 44%    
  Feb 24, 2023 5   UCLA L 62-67 31%    
  Feb 25, 2023 44   USC W 68-66 58%    
  Mar 04, 2023 61   @ Colorado L 66-67 44%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.5 1.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.2 6.1 2.7 0.1 11.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 7.6 16.2 7.6 0.4 32.5 3rd
4th 0.2 5.8 14.7 6.9 0.4 28.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 9.6 5.5 0.4 0.0 18.2 5th
6th 0.4 3.4 2.3 0.1 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 0.8 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.3 7.1 18.5 28.0 25.7 14.4 4.3 0.6 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 79.7% 0.5    0.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.0% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.9% 1.9 0.4 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.6% 98.7% 11.7% 87.0% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.5%
15-5 4.3% 74.9% 9.8% 65.1% 8.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.2 1.1 72.1%
14-6 14.4% 40.8% 7.8% 33.0% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 2.3 2.1 0.1 8.5 35.8%
13-7 25.7% 19.1% 7.4% 11.7% 10.8 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 0.3 20.8 12.6%
12-8 28.0% 8.8% 6.0% 2.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 25.5 3.0%
11-9 18.5% 5.1% 4.8% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 17.6 0.3%
10-10 7.1% 3.9% 3.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.8
9-11 1.3% 5.4% 5.4% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
8-12 0.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.0 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.3% 6.5% 11.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.9 4.1 7.7 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 81.7 12.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 98.7% 5.8 1.0 6.7 25.3 43.7 17.7 4.3
Lose Out 0.1% 2.3% 15.0 2.3