Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.4#66
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#51
Pace69.3#144
Improvement-1.1#307

Offense
Total Offense+2.1#112
First Shot+2.1#103
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#171
Layup/Dunks-1.1#228
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#76
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#166
Freethrows+0.7#119
Improvement+0.1#163

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#33
First Shot+6.6#24
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#219
Layups/Dunks+6.2#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#128
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#229
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement-1.3#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.9% 28.6% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.5% 25.2% 11.9%
Average Seed 10.2 10.1 10.6
.500 or above 99.8% 100.0% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.0% 79.1% 46.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four11.7% 12.4% 7.1%
First Round20.3% 21.6% 10.6%
Second Round7.5% 8.0% 3.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.0% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 87.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 5
Quad 25 - 48 - 10
Quad 34 - 013 - 10
Quad 47 - 119 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 187   Tarleton St. W 62-59 87%     1 - 0 -0.7 -17.8 +16.8
  Nov 10, 2022 293   Northern Arizona W 84-68 94%     2 - 0 +6.3 +4.0 +2.1
  Nov 13, 2022 314   @ Texas Southern L 66-67 OT 90%     2 - 1 -6.5 -13.9 +7.6
  Nov 16, 2022 74   Virginia Commonwealth W 63-59 55%     3 - 1 +11.1 -1.2 +12.4
  Nov 17, 2022 58   Michigan W 87-62 47%     4 - 1 +34.0 +22.3 +13.0
  Nov 22, 2022 240   Grambling St. W 80-49 91%     5 - 1 +24.2 +7.6 +17.2
  Nov 27, 2022 289   Alcorn St. W 76-54 94%     6 - 1 +12.5 -0.6 +13.3
  Dec 01, 2022 61   @ Colorado W 60-59 39%     7 - 1 1 - 0 +12.3 -2.9 +15.2
  Dec 04, 2022 90   Stanford W 68-64 71%     8 - 1 2 - 0 +6.8 -5.9 +12.5
  Dec 07, 2022 167   @ SMU W 75-57 70%     9 - 1 +20.8 +12.9 +9.8
  Dec 12, 2022 11   Creighton W 73-71 25%     10 - 1 +17.4 +9.4 +8.0
  Dec 18, 2022 216   San Diego W 91-67 89%     11 - 1 +19.0 +9.6 +9.0
  Dec 21, 2022 88   @ San Francisco L 60-97 50%     11 - 2 -28.6 -11.3 -16.1
  Dec 31, 2022 9   Arizona L 60-69 32%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +4.1 -8.1 +12.3
  Jan 05, 2023 63   Washington St. W 77-71 60%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +11.7 +11.2 +0.8
  Jan 08, 2023 102   Washington W 73-65 74%     13 - 3 4 - 1 +9.6 -0.6 +9.9
  Jan 12, 2023 48   @ Oregon W 90-73 34%     14 - 3 5 - 1 +29.7 +24.7 +5.5
  Jan 14, 2023 185   @ Oregon St. W 74-69 73%     15 - 3 6 - 1 +6.9 +8.6 -1.4
  Jan 19, 2023 5   UCLA L 62-74 25%     15 - 4 6 - 2 +3.4 +4.2 -2.0
  Jan 21, 2023 44   USC L 69-77 52%     15 - 5 6 - 3 -0.2 +1.9 -2.4
  Jan 26, 2023 102   @ Washington L 66-69 OT 55%     15 - 6 6 - 4 +4.1 -14.3 +18.9
  Jan 28, 2023 63   @ Washington St. L 58-75 39%     15 - 7 6 - 5 -5.8 -8.7 +2.8
  Feb 02, 2023 185   Oregon St. W 70-58 87%    
  Feb 04, 2023 48   Oregon W 70-69 56%    
  Feb 09, 2023 90   @ Stanford W 68-67 49%    
  Feb 11, 2023 224   @ California W 68-59 78%    
  Feb 16, 2023 61   Colorado W 69-67 60%    
  Feb 18, 2023 51   Utah W 66-65 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 9   @ Arizona L 70-80 16%    
  Mar 02, 2023 5   @ UCLA L 60-72 12%    
  Mar 04, 2023 44   @ USC L 66-71 32%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.9 0.4 0.0 8.4 3rd
4th 0.3 4.9 7.8 1.2 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.2 4.9 12.6 3.9 0.1 21.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 5.8 16.4 7.7 0.4 0.0 30.6 6th
7th 0.0 2.3 8.7 4.5 0.2 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.0 2.0 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 1.0 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.2 1.4 6.6 16.8 26.2 25.9 15.8 5.8 1.3 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 59.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.3% 95.4% 7.2% 88.2% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 95.0%
13-7 5.8% 79.3% 6.5% 72.7% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.5 0.4 1.2 77.8%
12-8 15.8% 54.8% 5.3% 49.5% 10.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.0 2.9 0.1 7.1 52.2%
11-9 25.9% 30.0% 4.9% 25.1% 10.7 0.0 0.3 2.4 4.9 0.3 18.1 26.4%
10-10 26.2% 13.7% 3.8% 9.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.7 0.4 0.0 22.6 10.3%
9-11 16.8% 4.5% 3.7% 0.9% 11.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 16.1 0.9%
8-12 6.6% 2.8% 2.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.4
7-13 1.4% 2.4% 2.4% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 26.9% 4.4% 22.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.8 8.4 11.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 73.1 23.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.8 10.8 29.7 40.5 10.8 8.1
Lose Out 0.2%