Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.8#91
Expected Predictive Rating+7.8#81
Pace69.6#174
Improvement+0.5#134

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#157
First Shot+1.4#142
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#216
Layup/Dunks+1.8#108
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#305
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows+1.0#117
Improvement+0.7#114

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#46
First Shot+4.3#66
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#133
Layups/Dunks+0.7#156
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#11
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#241
Freethrows+1.3#107
Improvement-0.2#192
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.4% 1.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.6% 14.6% 6.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 10.3% 12.1% 5.4%
Average Seed 9.7 9.5 10.6
.500 or above 35.7% 41.7% 18.3%
.500 or above in Conference 29.7% 33.2% 19.7%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 9.4% 7.7% 14.2%
First Four3.7% 3.7% 3.5%
First Round10.8% 12.7% 5.3%
Second Round4.2% 5.1% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.3% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 74.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 10
Quad 23 - 45 - 14
Quad 36 - 211 - 17
Quad 43 - 014 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2023 33   Mississippi St. L 56-71 27%     0 - 1 -2.7 -5.2 +2.3
  Nov 11, 2023 235   Texas Southern W 63-52 88%     1 - 1 +4.2 -14.0 +17.7
  Nov 16, 2023 104   Umass Lowell W 71-69 66%     2 - 1 +3.4 -0.4 +3.8
  Nov 23, 2023 14   BYU L 49-77 18%     2 - 2 -12.5 -14.9 +1.4
  Nov 24, 2023 157   Vanderbilt W 82-67 70%     3 - 2 +15.4 +12.2 +4.1
  Nov 29, 2023 132   Sam Houston St. W 72-65 74%    
  Dec 03, 2023 70   San Francisco W 69-68 55%    
  Dec 06, 2023 94   SMU W 72-69 63%    
  Dec 09, 2023 197   @ San Diego W 73-68 67%    
  Dec 16, 2023 23   TCU L 69-76 25%    
  Dec 20, 2023 63   Northwestern L 64-67 41%    
  Dec 29, 2023 98   @ Stanford L 70-72 42%    
  Dec 31, 2023 154   @ California W 70-68 58%    
  Jan 04, 2024 41   Utah L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 06, 2024 37   Colorado L 69-72 40%    
  Jan 11, 2024 59   @ Washington L 71-77 29%    
  Jan 17, 2024 25   UCLA L 63-67 37%    
  Jan 20, 2024 30   USC L 68-72 36%    
  Jan 25, 2024 51   @ Oregon L 69-76 25%    
  Jan 27, 2024 156   @ Oregon St. W 66-64 58%    
  Feb 01, 2024 98   Stanford W 73-69 64%    
  Feb 03, 2024 154   California W 73-65 76%    
  Feb 08, 2024 37   @ Colorado L 66-75 22%    
  Feb 10, 2024 41   @ Utah L 67-75 23%    
  Feb 14, 2024 156   Oregon St. W 69-61 78%    
  Feb 17, 2024 2   @ Arizona L 68-85 7%    
  Feb 22, 2024 59   Washington L 73-74 49%    
  Feb 24, 2024 64   Washington St. W 69-68 52%    
  Feb 28, 2024 2   Arizona L 71-82 18%    
  Mar 07, 2024 30   @ USC L 65-75 19%    
  Mar 09, 2024 25   @ UCLA L 60-70 19%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.3 1.4 2.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.0 4.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 3.2 5.6 3.8 0.8 0.0 14.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 3.5 6.4 3.7 0.8 0.1 15.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.7 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 15.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.4 3.5 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 5.5 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.0 6.2 9.5 10.5 13.0 12.8 11.9 9.7 7.6 5.5 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 96.6% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 89.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
16-4 53.1% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.6% 99.7% 10.6% 89.0% 5.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.6%
15-5 0.9% 94.3% 4.9% 89.4% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 94.0%
14-6 2.0% 86.8% 6.4% 80.4% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.3 85.9%
13-7 3.2% 75.8% 8.1% 67.7% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.8 73.7%
12-8 5.5% 44.4% 5.3% 39.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.1 41.3%
11-9 7.6% 26.6% 2.1% 24.6% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.6 25.1%
10-10 9.7% 9.8% 2.8% 7.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 7.2%
9-11 11.9% 4.0% 3.1% 1.0% 12.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 11.5 1.0%
8-12 12.8% 3.6% 3.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 12.4
7-13 13.0% 1.4% 1.4% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.9
6-14 10.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.4
5-15 9.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 9.4
4-16 6.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-17 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-18 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.6
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 12.6% 2.5% 10.1% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.8 2.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 87.4 10.3%