Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.5 #75
Expected Predictive Rating +9.7 #61
Pace 72.8 #81
Improvement -0.5 #217

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #58 B B- B B+ C
Defense #116 C+ C B+ D+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #178 1.32 #35 +3.0 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.72 #228 -0.5 #196
Three Pointers 42% #166 1.09 #81 +1.8 #118
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #63 +4.3 #63
Freethrows 19.9 #62 75% #108 15.0 #48
Second Chance 32.2% #142 1.13 #70 0.37 #89
Turnovers 14.5% #61
Total Offense +5.8 #58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.13 #147 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #208 0.66 #55 +1.4 #93
Three Pointers 45% #74 1.02 #192 -2.2 #274
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #140 +1.3 #139
Freethrows 18.1 #220 77% #343 13.9 #279
Second Chance 30.8% #181 1.04 #183 0.32 #183
Turnovers 19.3% #49
Total Defense +1.6 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #194 -0.1% #153
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.3% #60 -2.4% #137
Possession Length 15.1 #25 17.5 #224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #14 0.18 #221
Improvement +0.6 #143 -1.1 #252

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 24.5% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 7.8% 24.3% 6.8%
Average Seed 10.0 9.6 10.0
.500 or above 34.5% 63.4% 32.8%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 23.8% 6.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 17.5% 5.3% 18.3%
First Four3.6% 8.6% 3.3%
First Round5.9% 18.2% 5.2%
Second Round2.0% 6.3% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.9% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 5.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 43 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 33 - 111 - 16
Quad 44 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 299 Southern Utah W 81 - 64 95% +11  1 - 0 +6 +2 A- D F +4 A+ F B+
 Sun, Nov 9 229 Utah Tech W 81 - 66 90% +11  2 - 0 +8 +4 D+ A+ A+ +4 A- D- A+
 Fri, Nov 14 6 Gonzaga L 65 - 77 17% -7  2 - 1 +5 +0 C A- A+ +5 A+ B A+
 Mon, Nov 17 277 Georgia St. W 75 - 62 93% -1  3 - 1 +4 -1 B+ F B+ +4 D+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 106 @Hawaii W 83 - 76 50% -2  4 - 1 +14 +12 A+ D A+ +2 C C A
 Mon, Nov 24 39 Texas W 87 - 86 29% -2  5 - 1 +14 +12 A+ A+ C +2 D F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 139 Washington St. W 100 - 94 72% -2  6 - 1 +7 +26 A+ A+ C+ -19 F F F
 Wed, Nov 26 45 USC L 75 - 88 35% -4  6 - 2 -2 +13 A D+ C+ -15 F F B-
 Sat, Dec 6 54 Oklahoma W 86 - 70 38% +16  7 - 2 +26 +13 A+ A+ C +13 A+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 9 305 Northern Arizona W 73 - 48 95% +12  8 - 2 +14 -0 C C- F +16 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 55 Santa Clara W 82 - 79 38% -6  9 - 2 +13 +10 A+ A- C- +3 B+ A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 38 @UCLA L 77 - 90 21% -9  9 - 3 +3 +10 F A- A+ -7 D+ A+ F
 Sun, Dec 21 190 Oregon St. L 75 - 78 87% +1  9 - 4 -8 +3 D+ D B- -11 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 78 Colorado L 89 - 95 62% -6  9 - 5 0 - 1 -2 +5 C C D -6 B- D- A
 Wed, Jan 7 12 @BYU L 76 - 104 10% -17  9 - 6 0 - 2 -6 +5 C C D -9 F A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 82 Kansas St. W 87 - 84 62% +0  10 - 6 1 - 2 +7 +8 D- A+ D+ -1 A+ D+ C
 Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 82 - 89 5% -3  10 - 7 1 - 3 +19 +21 A+ C A+ -2 A- F C-
 Sun, Jan 18 5 @Houston L 63 - 80 6%
 Wed, Jan 21 57 West Virginia W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Jan 24 49 Cincinnati L 75 - 76 47%
 Tue, Jan 27 47 @Central Florida L 79 - 86 26%
 Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 77 - 89 12%
 Wed, Feb 4 105 @Utah W 82 - 81 50%
 Sat, Feb 7 78 @Colorado L 80 - 83 39%
 Tue, Feb 10 62 Oklahoma St. W 88 - 86 57%
 Tue, Feb 17 20 Texas Tech L 76 - 83 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 40 @Baylor L 77 - 86 22%
 Tue, Feb 24 48 @TCU L 73 - 80 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 105 Utah W 85 - 79 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 19 Kansas L 74 - 81 26%
 Sat, Mar 7 10 @Iowa St. L 71 - 86 8%
Totals 15 - 16 6 - 12 +7 +6 B B- B +2 C+ C B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.5 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.5 1.8 0.1 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.2 4.4 0.6 7.3 9th
10th 1.2 5.7 2.1 0.1 8.9 10th
11th 0.3 4.9 5.1 0.3 10.6 11th
12th 0.1 2.8 7.8 1.8 0.0 12.5 12th
13th 0.0 1.5 8.0 4.4 0.3 14.2 13th
14th 0.7 6.1 7.1 0.9 0.0 14.8 14th
15th 0.1 0.8 4.3 6.5 1.7 0.0 13.3 15th
16th 0.5 2.5 3.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.1 16th
Total 0.5 3.3 8.8 15.5 19.9 19.2 15.3 10.0 4.9 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.8% 93.5% 2.6% 90.9% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 93.3%
10-8 1.8% 81.7% 1.1% 80.6% 9.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.3 81.5%
9-9 4.9% 58.2% 0.2% 58.0% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.1 2.0 58.1%
8-10 10.0% 23.4% 23.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.1 7.6 23.4%
7-11 15.3% 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 15.0 2.0%
6-12 19.2% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.1 19.2 0.3%
5-13 19.9% 19.9
4-14 15.5% 15.5
3-15 8.8% 8.8
2-16 3.3% 3.3
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18
Total 100% 7.8% 0.1% 7.8% 10.0 92.2 7.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%