Arizona St.
Pac-12
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.3#96
Expected Predictive Rating-4.0#238
Pace71.8#108
Improvement-0.5#223

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#78
First Shot+3.5#75
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#155
Layup/Dunks+0.0#167
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#87
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#108
Freethrows+0.0#182
Improvement+0.1#159

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#123
First Shot+1.9#114
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#213
Layups/Dunks+0.8#162
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#312
Freethrows+1.4#107
Improvement-0.7#248
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.2% 5.8% 2.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.3% 4.7% 1.8%
Average Seed 9.9 9.7 10.3
.500 or above 15.0% 21.4% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 24.8% 34.8% 13.5%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 7.8% 18.8%
First Four1.0% 1.3% 0.6%
First Round3.6% 5.1% 2.0%
Second Round1.7% 2.4% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Home) - 53.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 11
Quad 23 - 55 - 17
Quad 34 - 39 - 19
Quad 44 - 013 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 251   Portland W 76-60 89%     1 - 0 +8.1 -5.9 +12.6
  Nov 11, 2021 139   UC Riverside L 65-66 73%     1 - 1 -2.0 -1.4 -0.7
  Nov 15, 2021 288   North Florida W 72-63 91%     2 - 1 -0.8 -4.5 +4.1
  Nov 18, 2021 48   @ San Diego St. L 63-65 24%     2 - 2 +10.6 +2.5 +8.0
  Nov 24, 2021 3   Baylor L 63-75 11%     2 - 3 +6.8 -0.1 +6.6
  Nov 25, 2021 71   Syracuse L 84-92 43%     2 - 4 -0.9 +7.0 -7.7
  Nov 26, 2021 33   Loyola Chicago L 59-77 27%     2 - 5 -6.1 +0.3 -8.6
  Dec 01, 2021 60   Washington St. W 74-73 53%    
  Dec 05, 2021 44   @ Oregon L 69-77 24%    
  Dec 09, 2021 110   Grand Canyon W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 14, 2021 66   @ Creighton L 72-77 32%    
  Dec 19, 2021 49   San Francisco L 72-73 46%    
  Dec 21, 2021 305   Florida A&M W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 30, 2021 16   @ USC L 64-77 12%    
  Jan 01, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 68-83 9%    
  Jan 08, 2022 4   Arizona L 73-83 20%    
  Jan 13, 2022 57   Utah W 73-72 50%    
  Jan 15, 2022 75   Colorado W 73-72 56%    
  Jan 19, 2022 122   @ California L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 22, 2022 95   @ Stanford L 72-75 39%    
  Jan 29, 2022 4   @ Arizona L 70-86 9%    
  Feb 03, 2022 16   USC L 67-74 27%    
  Feb 05, 2022 8   UCLA L 71-80 21%    
  Feb 10, 2022 145   @ Washington W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 12, 2022 60   @ Washington St. L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 17, 2022 44   Oregon L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 19, 2022 127   Oregon St. W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 24, 2022 75   @ Colorado L 70-75 35%    
  Feb 26, 2022 57   @ Utah L 69-75 31%    
  Mar 03, 2022 122   California W 70-65 70%    
  Mar 05, 2022 95   Stanford W 75-72 60%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.1 1.5 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 4.7 4.2 1.2 0.2 11.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.8 5.3 4.8 1.2 0.0 13.3 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 5.3 4.5 1.5 0.1 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.6 5.0 1.6 0.1 12.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.6 4.0 4.3 1.6 0.1 11.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.8 3.4 1.5 0.1 10.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.2 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.9 4.0 7.7 9.7 11.9 13.8 13.3 12.2 9.4 6.2 4.5 2.5 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 10.1% 0.0    0.0
15-5 9.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 35.5% 64.5% 3.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 10.1% 89.9% 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.7% 87.4% 3.5% 83.9% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 87.0%
14-6 1.2% 70.2% 12.6% 57.6% 9.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 65.9%
13-7 2.5% 40.7% 3.5% 37.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.5 38.6%
12-8 4.5% 17.3% 3.2% 14.1% 10.5 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.8 14.6%
11-9 6.2% 3.9% 2.2% 1.7% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.9 1.8%
10-10 9.4% 2.3% 1.6% 0.7% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.7%
9-11 12.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.1 0.2%
8-12 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 13.2
7-13 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.3 0.0 0.0 13.8
6-14 11.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.9
5-15 9.7% 9.7
4-16 7.7% 7.7
3-17 4.0% 4.0
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19 0.5% 0.5
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 4.2% 0.9% 3.3% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 95.8 3.3%