Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.9#63
Expected Predictive Rating+14.3#36
Pace71.0#142
Improvement+1.5#81

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#58
First Shot+5.3#56
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#116
Layup/Dunks+1.4#124
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#250
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#90
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement+0.6#125

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#93
First Shot+2.1#100
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#151
Layups/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#80
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#283
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement+0.9#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.5% 2.8% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.6% 31.2% 17.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 29.5% 31.1% 17.7%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.4
.500 or above 72.7% 75.9% 48.9%
.500 or above in Conference 26.5% 27.5% 19.2%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 8.0% 7.4% 12.4%
First Four7.9% 8.1% 6.0%
First Round25.1% 26.6% 14.2%
Second Round10.4% 11.0% 5.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.8% 1.9% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 87.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 12
Quad 25 - 29 - 14
Quad 34 - 113 - 15
Quad 45 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 317 Southern Utah W 81-64 96%     1 - 0 +4.7 +0.5 +3.7
  Sun, Nov 9 263 Utah Tech W 81-66 94%     2 - 0 +6.5 +3.8 +2.5
  Fri, Nov 14 5 Gonzaga L 65-77 18%     2 - 1 +6.7 +1.0 +5.7
  Mon, Nov 17 344 Georgia St. W 75-62 97%     3 - 1 -1.5 -4.6 +2.9
  Thu, Nov 20 110 @Hawaii W 83-76 59%     4 - 1 +13.6 +11.6 +1.5
  Mon, Nov 24 40 Texas W 87-86 37%     5 - 1 +13.4 +12.6 +0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 150 Washington St. W 100-94 78%     6 - 1 +6.8 +25.4 -18.7
  Wed, Nov 26 36 USC L 75-88 36%     6 - 2 -0.4 +11.8 -13.0
  Sat, Dec 6 47 Oklahoma W 86-70 42%     7 - 2 +27.0 +12.5 +13.9
  Tue, Dec 9 269 Northern Arizona W 73-48 94%     8 - 2 +16.2 +2.7 +15.4
  Sat, Dec 13 77 Santa Clara W 82-79 56%     9 - 2 +10.4 +8.8 +1.5
  Wed, Dec 17 30 @UCLA L 77-90 21%     9 - 3 +4.2 +10.3 -5.9
  Sun, Dec 21 165 Oregon St. W 79-67 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 65 Colorado W 82-79 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 9 @BYU L 70-84 9%    
  Sat, Jan 10 67 Kansas St. W 85-82 63%    
  Wed, Jan 14 3 @Arizona L 72-89 6%    
  Sun, Jan 18 8 @Houston L 63-77 10%    
  Wed, Jan 21 68 West Virginia W 73-70 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 70 Cincinnati W 76-72 64%    
  Tue, Jan 27 55 @Central Florida L 79-83 36%    
  Sat, Jan 31 3 Arizona L 75-86 16%    
  Wed, Feb 4 118 @Utah W 81-78 60%    
  Sat, Feb 7 65 @Colorado L 79-82 40%    
  Tue, Feb 10 53 Oklahoma St. W 85-83 56%    
  Tue, Feb 17 27 Texas Tech L 76-79 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 32 @Baylor L 78-86 25%    
  Tue, Feb 24 54 @TCU L 71-75 35%    
  Sat, Feb 28 118 Utah W 84-75 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 17 Kansas L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Mar 7 4 @Iowa St. L 70-86 7%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.6 0.0 3.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.1 1.3 0.1 5.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 4.2 2.5 0.3 8.0 7th
8th 0.4 4.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 5.7 1.7 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 6.0 3.6 0.3 10.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 4.0 5.3 0.9 0.0 10.5 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 6.0 2.0 0.1 10.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 5.0 3.3 0.3 9.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 3.2 4.1 0.8 0.0 8.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 6.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 3.8 16th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.0 7.8 12.4 15.2 16.7 15.4 12.0 7.6 4.1 2.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 62.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 16.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 3.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.2% 100.0% 1.6% 98.4% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.7% 100.0% 1.5% 98.5% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.0% 99.2% 2.0% 97.1% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.1%
11-7 4.1% 96.8% 0.6% 96.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.1 96.7%
10-8 7.6% 89.2% 0.8% 88.4% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.7 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.8 89.1%
9-9 12.0% 72.2% 0.1% 72.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.4 3.0 1.7 0.0 3.3 72.2%
8-10 15.4% 35.2% 0.1% 35.0% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.2 0.2 10.0 35.1%
7-11 16.7% 10.2% 10.2% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.2 0.0 15.0 10.2%
6-12 15.2% 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 15.0 1.5%
5-13 12.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 12.4 0.0%
4-14 7.8% 7.8
3-15 4.0% 4.0
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 29.6% 0.2% 29.4% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.9 4.5 5.9 6.4 6.8 0.5 0.0 70.4 29.5%