Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.2 #83
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 #70
Pace 72.0 #102
Improvement -1.8 #274

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #70 B B+ C+ B+ C
Defense #104 C+ D+ C B+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #158 1.28 #63 +2.7 #97
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #207 0.68 #273 -1.3 #237
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.10 #78 +2.4 #106
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #81 +3.8 #81
Freethrows 19.9 #68 75% #101 14.9 #55
Second Chance 30.4% #189 1.17 #54 0.36 #108
Turnovers 14.4% #55
Total Offense +5.0 #70

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #278 1.15 #156 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #235 0.63 #39 +1.9 #59
Three Pointers 46% #49 0.98 #147 -1.9 #267
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #118 +2.2 #115
Freethrows 17.8 #209 77% #340 13.7 #260
Second Chance 31.0% #192 1.03 #177 0.32 #189
Turnovers 19.7% #44
Total Defense +2.2 #104

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #160 0.0% #164
Shot Type Make % Effect 7.0% #79 -4.2% #112
Possession Length 14.7 #16 17.6 #246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.27 #17 0.16 #128
Improvement -0.9 #249 -0.9 #250

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.9% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.9% 21.2% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.8% 21.0% 5.8%
Average Seed 9.8 9.3 9.9
.500 or above 31.7% 61.4% 29.5%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 22.5% 6.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.7% 6.9% 20.7%
First Four2.8% 6.1% 2.6%
First Round5.2% 17.5% 4.3%
Second Round1.9% 6.6% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 1.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: BYU (Away) - 6.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 91 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 33 - 111 - 17
Quad 44 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 334 Southern Utah W 81-64 96%     10.7   1 - 0 +3.4 -0.5 +3.2
  Sun, Nov 9 218 Utah Tech W 81-66 89%     10.6   2 - 0 +8.7 +4.3 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 14 6 Gonzaga L 65-77 17%     -6.6   2 - 1 +5.5 -1.0 +6.4
  Mon, Nov 17 301 Georgia St. W 75-62 94%     -0.6   3 - 1 +2.1 -3.3 +5.2
  Thu, Nov 20 96 @Hawaii W 83-76 45%     -2.3   4 - 1 +15.4 +12.2 +2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 46 Texas W 87-86 33%     -2.2   5 - 1 +12.6 +11.5 +1.1
  Tue, Nov 25 148 Washington St. W 100-94 74%     -1.7   6 - 1 +6.6 +26.1 -19.6
  Wed, Nov 26 41 USC L 75-88 31%     -3.5   6 - 2 -0.6 +11.8 -13.2
  Sat, Dec 6 44 Oklahoma W 86-70 32%     15.9   7 - 2 +27.9 +12.5 +14.8
  Tue, Dec 9 286 Northern Arizona W 73-48 94%     11.6   8 - 2 +15.0 +1.3 +15.6
  Sat, Dec 13 68 Santa Clara W 82-79 45%     -5.7   9 - 2 +11.4 +8.3 +2.9
  Wed, Dec 17 33 @UCLA L 77-90 18%     -9.1   9 - 3 +3.8 +10.2 -6.2
  Sun, Dec 21 190 Oregon St. L 75-78 87%     0.9   9 - 4 -7.9 +3.0 -11.0
  Sat, Jan 3 79 Colorado L 89-95 61%     -5.6   9 - 5 0 - 1 -1.6 +4.1 -4.9
  Wed, Jan 7 10 @BYU L 71-87 7%    
  Sat, Jan 10 71 Kansas St. W 84-82 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 71-90 4%    
  Sun, Jan 18 11 @Houston L 64-79 8%    
  Wed, Jan 21 67 West Virginia W 72-70 56%    
  Sat, Jan 24 57 Cincinnati W 75-74 53%    
  Tue, Jan 27 48 @Central Florida L 78-85 25%    
  Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 74-87 11%    
  Wed, Feb 4 117 @Utah W 80-79 53%    
  Sat, Feb 7 79 @Colorado L 80-83 38%    
  Tue, Feb 10 61 Oklahoma St. W 86-85 55%    
  Tue, Feb 17 19 Texas Tech L 76-82 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 31 @Baylor L 77-87 18%    
  Tue, Feb 24 47 @TCU L 70-77 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 117 Utah W 83-76 73%    
  Tue, Mar 3 18 Kansas L 72-78 28%    
  Sat, Mar 7 4 @Iowa St. L 69-87 5%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 5 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.7 7th
8th 0.4 2.2 1.6 0.2 4.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 6.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.1 2.1 0.1 8.4 10th
11th 0.5 4.8 4.5 0.4 0.0 10.3 11th
12th 0.2 3.7 6.9 1.5 0.0 12.3 12th
13th 0.1 2.1 7.3 3.7 0.2 13.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.4 6.6 5.6 0.7 0.0 14.4 14th
15th 0.1 1.3 5.4 6.1 1.2 0.0 14.1 15th
16th 0.3 1.8 3.9 3.7 1.1 0.0 10.7 16th
Total 0.3 1.8 5.2 10.6 16.1 18.4 17.4 14.0 8.8 4.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 20.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 100.0% 2.9% 97.1% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.7% 94.2% 2.2% 92.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 94.1%
10-8 1.9% 83.0% 83.0% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.3 83.0%
9-9 4.6% 53.9% 0.3% 53.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 2.1 53.8%
8-10 8.8% 17.6% 0.1% 17.5% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 0.1 7.3 17.6%
7-11 14.0% 2.4% 0.1% 2.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 13.6 2.4%
6-12 17.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 17.3 0.1%
5-13 18.4% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 18.4
4-14 16.1% 16.1
3-15 10.6% 10.6
2-16 5.2% 5.2
1-17 1.8% 1.8
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 6.9% 0.1% 6.8% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.7 2.5 0.1 93.1 6.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%