Oregon
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +9.3 #60
Expected Predictive Rating +5.1 #100
Pace 69.3 #185
Improvement +2.7 #52

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #67 C+ C+ A C- C+
Defense #73 B+ B- B- C- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #239 1.12 #225 -2.0 #251
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #270 0.83 #90 -1.0 #225
Three Pointers 48% #57 1.07 #110 +4.8 #42
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #136 +1.8 #135
Freethrows 18.5 #120 73% #174 13.5 #129
Second Chance 39.1% #19 1.13 #90 0.44 #25
Turnovers 17.5% #235
Total Offense +5.4 #67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #330 0.98 #19 +7.0 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #29 0.88 #326 -4.3 #360
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.93 #78 +1.6 #126
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #59 +4.3 #59
Freethrows 14.4 #44 76% #328 11.0 #285
Second Chance 29.2% #125 0.95 #75 0.28 #84
Turnovers 15.6% #247
Total Defense +3.8 #73

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.8% #140 -2.8% #22
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.6% #144 -5.8% #79
Possession Length 17.1 #162 17.5 #228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #214 0.18 #193
Improvement +2.9 #29 -0.3 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 10.1% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.0% 10.0% 2.7%
Average Seed 9.7 9.6 9.9
.500 or above 23.1% 34.2% 13.7%
.500 or above in Conference 10.5% 17.4% 4.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 5.1% 2.0% 7.8%
First Four2.4% 3.9% 1.2%
First Round5.0% 8.3% 2.2%
Second Round2.0% 3.5% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Home) - 45.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 12
Quad 24 - 56 - 17
Quad 33 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 97 Hawaii W 60-59 75%     3.1   1 - 0 +3.3 -12.3 +15.5
  Fri, Nov 7 242 Rice W 67-63 93%     0.4   2 - 0 -3.6 -6.3 +3.0
  Wed, Nov 12 174 South Dakota St. W 83-69 89%     4.9   3 - 0 +10.1 +6.4 +3.5
  Mon, Nov 17 199 Oregon St. W 87-75 91%     6.9   4 - 0 +6.6 +13.1 -6.2
  Mon, Nov 24 32 Auburn L 73-84 33%     -2.7   4 - 1 +2.8 +3.5 -0.7
  Tue, Nov 25 51 San Diego St. L 80-97 45%     -10.1   4 - 2 -6.5 +12.0 -18.4
  Thu, Nov 27 37 Creighton L 66-76 35%     -5.8   4 - 3 +3.3 +1.4 +1.5
  Tue, Dec 2 46 USC L 77-82 55%     0.6   4 - 4 0 - 1 +3.1 +9.4 -6.4
  Sat, Dec 6 38 @UCLA L 63-74 26%     -7.8   4 - 5 0 - 2 +5.1 +6.6 -3.2
  Sat, Dec 13 185 UC Davis W 104-62 90%     30.4   5 - 5 +37.4 +25.0 +11.0
  Wed, Dec 17 243 Portland W 94-69 93%     10.6   6 - 5 +17.3 +7.9 +6.6
  Sun, Dec 21 8 Gonzaga L 82-91 15%     -4.5   6 - 6 +11.4 +20.4 -9.3
  Sun, Dec 28 262 Nebraska Omaha W 80-57 94%     10.9   7 - 6 +14.2 +9.4 +7.1
  Fri, Jan 2 108 @Maryland W 64-54 57%     5.2   8 - 6 1 - 2 +17.4 +1.2 +17.0
  Mon, Jan 5 129 @Rutgers L 85-88 OT 66%     1.0   8 - 7 1 - 3 +1.9 +10.4 -8.3
  Thu, Jan 8 35 Ohio St. L 77-78 46%    
  Tue, Jan 13 23 @Nebraska L 69-78 19%    
  Sun, Jan 18 1 Michigan L 72-86 9%    
  Tue, Jan 20 14 Michigan St. L 68-74 30%    
  Sun, Jan 25 47 @Washington L 73-78 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 38 UCLA L 73-74 47%    
  Sun, Feb 1 21 Iowa L 69-73 36%    
  Sat, Feb 7 4 @Purdue L 67-83 7%    
  Mon, Feb 9 25 @Indiana L 72-81 20%    
  Sat, Feb 14 107 Penn St. W 80-72 76%    
  Tue, Feb 17 77 Minnesota W 72-67 66%    
  Sat, Feb 21 46 @USC L 76-81 33%    
  Wed, Feb 25 43 Wisconsin W 78-77 52%    
  Sat, Feb 28 63 @Northwestern L 74-77 40%    
  Tue, Mar 3 10 @Illinois L 69-83 10%    
  Sat, Mar 7 47 Washington W 76-75 55%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.2 0.0 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.8 0.8 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 1.9 0.3 4.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 3.8 1.0 0.0 6.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.8 4.6 3.0 0.2 8.5 11th
12th 0.5 4.2 5.5 0.9 0.0 11.1 12th
13th 0.3 3.5 7.2 2.7 0.1 13.9 13th
14th 0.2 2.7 8.0 4.5 0.5 0.0 15.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.5 5.2 0.8 0.0 14.7 15th
16th 0.1 1.1 4.1 4.0 0.9 0.0 10.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.0 5.4 17th
18th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.3 1.8 18th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.1 8.7 14.0 18.1 17.5 15.0 10.5 5.8 3.1 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 25.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.4% 96.1% 96.1% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 96.1%
12-8 1.2% 90.2% 2.1% 88.0% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.0%
11-9 3.1% 62.8% 0.2% 62.7% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.0 1.1 62.8%
10-10 5.8% 33.8% 0.3% 33.5% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.0 3.8 33.6%
9-11 10.5% 5.8% 0.2% 5.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 9.9 5.6%
8-12 15.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.9 0.4%
7-13 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 11.0 0.0 17.5 0.0%
6-14 18.1% 18.1
5-15 14.0% 14.0
4-16 8.7% 8.7
3-17 4.1% 4.1
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 6.1% 0.1% 6.0% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.2 0.1 93.9 6.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%