Oregon
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.0#48
Expected Predictive Rating+8.7#61
Pace67.5#196
Improvement+0.5#129

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#37
First Shot+4.7#54
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#80
Layup/Dunks+5.5#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#330
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#118
Freethrows+0.4#144
Improvement+0.7#70

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot+5.1#42
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#295
Layups/Dunks+3.2#60
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#227
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#191
Freethrows+2.3#40
Improvement-0.2#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 1.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.9% 3.8% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.2% 56.7% 31.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.7% 53.2% 26.3%
Average Seed 9.8 9.0 10.1
.500 or above 96.4% 99.4% 95.6%
.500 or above in Conference 96.4% 99.4% 95.6%
Conference Champion 1.6% 5.7% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four11.0% 10.7% 11.1%
First Round30.8% 51.3% 25.5%
Second Round13.3% 23.5% 10.7%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 6.9% 3.3%
Elite Eight1.5% 2.7% 1.2%
Final Four0.5% 1.0% 0.3%
Championship Game0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 20.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 26 - 39 - 10
Quad 34 - 213 - 13
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 358   Florida A&M W 80-45 99%     1 - 0 +16.7 +4.6 +13.1
  Nov 11, 2022 100   UC Irvine L 56-69 78%     1 - 1 -11.1 -15.7 +4.5
  Nov 15, 2022 120   Montana St. W 81-51 83%     2 - 1 +30.0 +10.4 +19.9
  Nov 20, 2022 1   Houston L 56-66 26%     2 - 2 +6.7 +1.3 +3.8
  Nov 24, 2022 6   Connecticut L 59-83 24%     2 - 3 -6.8 -4.6 -2.7
  Nov 25, 2022 39   Michigan St. L 70-74 44%     2 - 4 +7.4 +9.8 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2022 62   Villanova W 74-67 56%     3 - 4 +15.4 +14.9 +1.6
  Dec 01, 2022 63   Washington St. W 74-60 66%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +19.7 +9.1 +11.5
  Dec 04, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 56-65 16%     4 - 5 1 - 1 +11.8 +1.9 +8.8
  Dec 10, 2022 59   Nevada W 78-65 64%     5 - 5 +19.2 +8.7 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2022 158   UC Riverside W 71-65 87%     6 - 5 +3.7 -2.4 +6.2
  Dec 17, 2022 166   Portland W 78-56 88%     7 - 5 +19.4 -1.8 +20.5
  Dec 20, 2022 99   Utah Valley L 72-77 78%     7 - 6 -3.0 -2.4 -0.3
  Dec 31, 2022 185   Oregon St. W 77-68 89%     8 - 6 2 - 1 +5.4 +17.6 -10.6
  Jan 05, 2023 61   @ Colorado L 41-68 45%     8 - 7 2 - 2 -15.7 -21.7 +5.2
  Jan 07, 2023 51   @ Utah W 70-60 40%     9 - 7 3 - 2 +22.6 +7.0 +15.9
  Jan 12, 2023 66   Arizona St. L 73-90 66%     9 - 8 3 - 3 -11.4 +6.8 -18.6
  Jan 14, 2023 9   Arizona W 87-68 38%     10 - 8 4 - 3 +32.1 +16.4 +15.1
  Jan 18, 2023 224   @ California W 87-58 83%     11 - 8 5 - 3 +28.8 +28.5 +4.8
  Jan 21, 2023 90   @ Stanford L 64-71 57%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +1.2 -1.3 +2.1
  Jan 26, 2023 61   Colorado W 75-69 66%     12 - 9 6 - 4 +11.9 +7.1 +4.7
  Jan 28, 2023 51   Utah W 68-56 61%     13 - 9 7 - 4 +19.2 +11.1 +9.9
  Feb 02, 2023 9   @ Arizona L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 04, 2023 66   @ Arizona St. L 69-70 44%    
  Feb 09, 2023 44   USC W 72-70 59%    
  Feb 11, 2023 5   UCLA L 65-70 32%    
  Feb 15, 2023 102   @ Washington W 73-70 60%    
  Feb 19, 2023 63   @ Washington St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 25, 2023 185   @ Oregon St. W 70-62 77%    
  Mar 02, 2023 224   California W 73-57 93%    
  Mar 04, 2023 90   Stanford W 73-66 76%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.9 5.1 2.4 0.1 9.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 6.5 13.8 6.2 0.3 27.6 3rd
4th 0.3 5.7 14.4 6.6 0.3 27.3 4th
5th 0.1 3.4 11.0 5.7 0.4 20.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 5.0 2.9 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.2 1.6 1.6 0.1 3.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.0 10.3 20.4 26.9 22.7 12.0 3.6 0.4 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 83.0% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 25.6% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
14-6 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 8.5% 91.5% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.6% 94.3% 9.7% 84.6% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.2 93.6%
14-6 12.0% 79.9% 9.0% 70.9% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 2.4 77.9%
13-7 22.7% 55.3% 7.4% 47.9% 10.0 0.0 0.6 2.2 6.0 3.7 0.1 10.2 51.7%
12-8 26.9% 27.2% 6.1% 21.1% 10.7 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.8 0.4 0.0 19.6 22.5%
11-9 20.4% 11.3% 5.9% 5.4% 11.3 0.1 1.5 0.7 0.0 18.1 5.7%
10-10 10.3% 4.9% 4.8% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.8 0.2%
9-11 3.0% 3.6% 3.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.9
8-12 0.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 36.2% 6.6% 29.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.7 4.0 6.4 10.8 10.6 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 63.8 31.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 4.6 0.9 14.7 31.7 34.4 15.6 2.7
Lose Out 0.0%