Colorado
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.6#61
Expected Predictive Rating+4.9#96
Pace73.2#56
Improvement-1.1#304

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#135
First Shot+0.6#156
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#130
Layup/Dunks+5.5#18
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#271
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#300
Freethrows-0.1#181
Improvement-1.6#347

Defense
Total Defense+7.4#20
First Shot+5.3#37
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#29
Layups/Dunks+2.2#89
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#80
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+0.5#109
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.4% 8.7% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 3.8% 4.1% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 13.5
.500 or above 61.6% 64.8% 28.6%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 12.9% 1.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 5.9%
First Four2.5% 2.7% 1.0%
First Round7.1% 7.4% 4.6%
Second Round2.2% 2.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California (Home) - 91.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 37 - 9
Quad 34 - 412 - 14
Quad 44 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 158   UC Riverside W 82-66 85%     1 - 0 +13.7 +0.1 +12.1
  Nov 11, 2022 240   @ Grambling St. L 74-83 83%     1 - 1 -10.4 -4.5 -5.0
  Nov 13, 2022 3   Tennessee W 78-66 17%     2 - 1 +30.7 +8.2 +21.0
  Nov 17, 2022 143   Massachusetts L 63-66 75%     2 - 2 -1.4 -11.0 +9.8
  Nov 18, 2022 42   Texas A&M W 103-75 42%     3 - 2 +38.7 +32.3 +5.8
  Nov 20, 2022 36   Boise St. L 55-68 38%     3 - 3 -1.3 -6.9 +5.3
  Nov 27, 2022 92   Yale W 65-62 72%     4 - 3 +5.6 -3.4 +9.1
  Dec 01, 2022 66   Arizona St. L 59-60 61%     4 - 4 0 - 1 +4.6 -7.8 +12.4
  Dec 04, 2022 102   @ Washington L 63-73 56%     4 - 5 0 - 2 -2.9 -6.8 +4.1
  Dec 08, 2022 113   Colorado St. W 93-65 78%     5 - 5 +28.7 +20.8 +8.6
  Dec 15, 2022 291   North Alabama W 84-60 95%     6 - 5 +14.4 -1.0 +14.0
  Dec 18, 2022 268   Northern Colorado W 88-77 93%     7 - 5 +2.7 +5.9 -3.5
  Dec 21, 2022 114   Southern Utah W 86-78 78%     8 - 5 +8.4 +3.9 +3.7
  Dec 29, 2022 90   @ Stanford W 73-70 51%     9 - 5 1 - 2 +11.2 +5.4 +5.9
  Dec 31, 2022 224   @ California L 76-80 80%     9 - 6 1 - 3 -4.2 +2.3 -6.5
  Jan 05, 2023 48   Oregon W 68-41 55%     10 - 6 2 - 3 +34.3 +0.0 +35.2
  Jan 07, 2023 185   Oregon St. W 62-42 87%     11 - 6 3 - 3 +16.4 -9.0 +26.1
  Jan 12, 2023 44   @ USC L 61-68 33%     11 - 7 3 - 4 +6.2 -5.1 +11.4
  Jan 14, 2023 5   @ UCLA L 54-68 13%     11 - 8 3 - 5 +6.8 -5.6 +12.0
  Jan 19, 2023 102   Washington L 72-75 75%     11 - 9 3 - 6 -1.4 +0.5 -1.9
  Jan 22, 2023 63   Washington St. W 58-55 61%     12 - 9 4 - 6 +8.7 -7.1 +16.1
  Jan 26, 2023 48   @ Oregon L 69-75 34%     12 - 10 4 - 7 +6.7 +0.5 +6.4
  Jan 28, 2023 185   @ Oregon St. L 52-60 74%     12 - 11 4 - 8 -6.1 -9.9 +2.5
  Feb 02, 2023 224   California W 71-57 91%    
  Feb 05, 2023 90   Stanford W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 11, 2023 51   @ Utah L 65-69 34%    
  Feb 16, 2023 66   @ Arizona St. L 67-69 40%    
  Feb 18, 2023 9   @ Arizona L 71-81 17%    
  Feb 23, 2023 44   USC W 70-69 54%    
  Feb 26, 2023 5   UCLA L 63-70 27%    
  Mar 04, 2023 51   Utah W 67-66 56%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.8 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 1.1 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.0 4.7 0.5 8.4 6th
7th 0.1 3.6 9.4 2.7 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.3 5.9 16.5 7.7 0.5 30.9 8th
9th 0.2 4.4 13.7 8.2 0.6 0.0 27.0 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 6.2 4.1 0.4 0.0 12.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.1 12th
Total 0.2 2.9 11.5 23.8 28.9 20.8 9.4 2.3 0.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.2% 94.3% 6.5% 87.8% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.9%
11-9 2.3% 61.7% 8.7% 53.0% 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.9 58.1%
10-10 9.4% 25.8% 6.6% 19.2% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.2 7.0 20.6%
9-11 20.8% 7.2% 5.3% 1.9% 11.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 19.3 2.0%
8-12 28.9% 4.9% 4.9% 13.4 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.1 27.5
7-13 23.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 22.9
6-14 11.5% 3.5% 3.5% 15.4 0.2 0.2 11.1
5-15 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.8
4-16 0.2% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.4% 4.8% 3.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.8 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.1 0.2 91.6 3.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 94.3% 7.3 0.8 3.3 14.6 38.2 23.6 13.0 0.8
Lose Out 0.2% 2.7% 16.0 2.7