California
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.9#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.8#163
Pace62.8#322
Improvement+3.6#13

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#194
First Shot+1.2#142
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#283
Layup/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#98
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement+0.7#107

Defense
Total Defense+3.5#76
First Shot+1.0#135
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#46
Layups/Dunks+1.9#112
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#165
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#240
Freethrows+0.1#177
Improvement+2.9#9
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.6% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.4
.500 or above 15.7% 20.6% 7.7%
.500 or above in Conference 13.0% 17.2% 6.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.8% 14.7% 38.8%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
First Round0.9% 1.3% 0.2%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 62.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 10
Quad 22 - 53 - 14
Quad 35 - 49 - 18
Quad 44 - 113 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 193   UC San Diego L 67-80 76%     0 - 1 -17.4 -8.9 -8.1
  Nov 13, 2021 147   @ UNLV L 52-55 44%     0 - 2 +1.5 -11.0 +12.1
  Nov 15, 2021 153   San Diego W 75-70 69%     1 - 2 +2.8 +5.9 -3.0
  Nov 18, 2021 140   Southern Utah W 75-68 2OT 65%     2 - 2 +5.9 -8.4 +13.4
  Nov 22, 2021 14   Florida L 60-80 12%     2 - 3 -4.5 -4.0 -0.6
  Nov 24, 2021 28   Seton Hall L 59-62 17%     2 - 4 +9.9 -2.6 +12.4
  Nov 28, 2021 129   Fresno St. W 65-57 63%     3 - 4 +7.4 -1.6 +9.7
  Dec 02, 2021 127   Oregon St. W 64-61 62%    
  Dec 05, 2021 57   @ Utah L 61-69 21%    
  Dec 08, 2021 311   Idaho St. W 68-54 91%    
  Dec 11, 2021 82   Santa Clara L 68-69 49%    
  Dec 19, 2021 230   Dartmouth W 65-56 80%    
  Dec 22, 2021 187   Pacific W 66-59 74%    
  Jan 02, 2022 95   @ Stanford L 63-69 30%    
  Jan 06, 2022 16   USC L 58-67 21%    
  Jan 08, 2022 8   UCLA L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 12, 2022 145   @ Washington L 65-67 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 60   @ Washington St. L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 19, 2022 96   Arizona St. W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 23, 2022 4   Arizona L 63-75 13%    
  Jan 27, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 58-76 5%    
  Jan 29, 2022 16   @ USC L 55-70 9%    
  Feb 03, 2022 145   Washington W 68-64 65%    
  Feb 05, 2022 60   Washington St. L 65-67 44%    
  Feb 09, 2022 127   @ Oregon St. L 61-64 39%    
  Feb 12, 2022 44   @ Oregon L 60-70 18%    
  Feb 17, 2022 75   Colorado L 64-65 47%    
  Feb 19, 2022 57   Utah L 64-66 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 95   Stanford W 66-65 51%    
  Mar 03, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. L 65-70 30%    
  Mar 05, 2022 4   @ Arizona L 60-78 6%    
Projected Record 12 - 19 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.6 0.1 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.2 2.8 3.0 0.7 0.1 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 4.4 3.2 1.0 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.2 1.6 5.4 4.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.4 1.2 0.1 13.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.6 6.2 5.4 1.8 0.2 15.2 10th
11th 0.5 2.6 5.7 5.3 1.6 0.2 15.8 11th
12th 0.4 1.4 3.9 5.1 3.7 1.1 0.1 15.7 12th
Total 0.4 1.4 4.3 7.9 11.0 14.2 14.2 14.3 11.2 8.0 6.3 3.4 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 7.7% 0.0    0.0
15-5 1.2% 0.0    0.0
14-6 6.7% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.2% 86.0% 12.8% 73.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 84.0%
14-6 0.3% 76.8% 6.1% 70.7% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 75.3%
13-7 1.0% 28.4% 9.2% 19.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 21.2%
12-8 1.8% 14.0% 2.3% 11.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.6 12.0%
11-9 3.4% 3.3% 0.7% 2.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.6%
10-10 6.3% 6.3
9-11 8.0% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 8.0
8-12 11.2% 0.2% 0.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 11.2
7-13 14.3% 14.3
6-14 14.2% 14.2
5-15 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.2
4-16 11.0% 11.0
3-17 7.9% 7.9
2-18 4.3% 4.3
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 1.1% 0.2% 0.9% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 98.9 0.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%