California
Atlantic Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#81
Pace73.2#70
Improvement-1.8#298

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#77
First Shot+5.0#54
After Offensive Rebound-1.1#243
Layup/Dunks+4.6#49
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#285
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#204
Freethrows+3.2#48
Improvement+0.9#109

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#169
First Shot-2.1#240
After Offensive Rebounds+2.1#49
Layups/Dunks+1.3#130
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#355
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#187
Freethrows+1.5#92
Improvement-2.7#352
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 2.3% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.2 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 47.0% 58.3% 33.9%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 31.0% 12.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.0% 6.6% 18.3%
First Four0.8% 1.2% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 1.9% 0.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Home) - 53.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b1 - 41 - 8
Quad 23 - 54 - 13
Quad 35 - 39 - 16
Quad 47 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 244   Cal St. Bakersfield W 86-73 85%     1 - 0 +5.6 +6.3 -1.2
  Nov 07, 2024 228   Cal Poly W 91-73 84%     2 - 0 +11.3 +8.3 +1.6
  Nov 13, 2024 67   @ Vanderbilt L 69-85 22%     2 - 1 -4.1 -5.2 +2.4
  Nov 17, 2024 106   @ USC W 71-66 37%     3 - 1 +12.1 +6.0 +6.4
  Nov 21, 2024 286   Air Force W 78-69 89%     4 - 1 -0.5 +4.5 -4.4
  Nov 24, 2024 320   Sacramento St. W 83-77 92%     5 - 1 -5.9 +4.4 -10.5
  Nov 27, 2024 361   Mercyhurst W 81-55 97%     6 - 1 +8.3 +6.9 +3.4
  Dec 03, 2024 63   @ Missouri L 93-98 22%     6 - 2 +7.1 +16.5 -9.0
  Dec 07, 2024 93   Stanford W 78-77 54%    
  Dec 10, 2024 149   Cornell W 86-80 72%    
  Dec 14, 2024 297   Northwestern St. W 81-67 90%    
  Dec 21, 2024 37   San Diego St. L 68-76 22%    
  Jan 01, 2025 36   @ Pittsburgh L 71-83 14%    
  Jan 04, 2025 28   @ Clemson L 68-80 13%    
  Jan 08, 2025 90   Virginia W 66-65 53%    
  Jan 11, 2025 129   Virginia Tech W 77-72 68%    
  Jan 15, 2025 17   @ North Carolina L 78-92 10%    
  Jan 18, 2025 72   @ North Carolina St. L 72-79 26%    
  Jan 22, 2025 61   Florida St. L 77-79 41%    
  Jan 25, 2025 87   Miami (FL) W 81-80 51%    
  Jan 29, 2025 62   @ SMU L 77-85 22%    
  Feb 01, 2025 96   Syracuse W 82-81 55%    
  Feb 05, 2025 72   North Carolina St. L 75-76 46%    
  Feb 08, 2025 89   Wake Forest W 74-73 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 2   @ Duke L 65-85 4%    
  Feb 15, 2025 111   @ Georgia Tech L 78-81 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 93   @ Stanford L 75-80 33%    
  Feb 26, 2025 62   SMU L 80-82 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 145   Boston College W 78-72 70%    
  Mar 05, 2025 43   @ Louisville L 73-83 18%    
  Mar 08, 2025 80   @ Notre Dame L 71-77 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 2.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 2.1 0.5 0.0 4.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 2.5 0.4 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.2 1.3 0.1 7.0 10th
11th 0.5 3.7 2.9 0.2 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.2 2.3 4.6 0.9 0.0 8.0 12th
13th 0.0 1.1 4.9 2.6 0.1 8.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 3.6 4.5 0.8 0.0 9.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.1 1.8 0.1 10.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 2.0 4.2 2.6 0.3 9.4 16th
17th 0.0 0.4 1.7 3.5 2.7 0.5 0.0 8.9 17th
18th 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 6.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.5 7.3 10.5 13.2 14.4 13.4 11.6 8.9 6.0 3.8 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 63.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 21.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 6.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.1% 93.4% 6.6% 86.9% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.0%
15-5 0.4% 56.9% 4.6% 52.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 54.8%
14-6 1.0% 34.8% 2.7% 32.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 33.0%
13-7 2.1% 19.9% 2.4% 17.6% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 18.0%
12-8 3.8% 8.5% 1.1% 7.4% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.5 7.5%
11-9 6.0% 3.0% 0.7% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.8 2.3%
10-10 8.9% 0.9% 0.2% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 8.8 0.7%
9-11 11.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 11.4 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.1%
8-12 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 13.4
7-13 14.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 14.4
6-14 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 13.2
5-15 10.5% 10.5
4-16 7.3% 7.3
3-17 4.5% 4.5
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.6% 0.6
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.8% 0.2% 1.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.1 98.2 1.5%