California
Atlantic Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.2#67
Expected Predictive Rating+13.8#37
Pace70.1#169
Improvement+0.3#138

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#64
First Shot+6.8#31
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#290
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.0#17
Freethrows-0.4#201
Improvement+0.5#131

Defense
Total Defense+3.1#88
First Shot+5.2#42
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#308
Layups/Dunks+0.7#149
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#63
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#194
Freethrows+3.2#25
Improvement-0.2#208
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.4% 2.8% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.8% 26.4% 14.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 23.3% 25.8% 14.2%
Average Seed 9.1 9.1 9.5
.500 or above 88.1% 92.0% 74.0%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 47.2% 34.7%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.9% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 5.5% 4.7% 8.7%
First Four6.8% 7.2% 5.2%
First Round20.1% 22.4% 11.7%
Second Round8.6% 9.8% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.2% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.2%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 78.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 7
Quad 24 - 47 - 11
Quad 35 - 112 - 12
Quad 47 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 272 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-60 94%     1 - 0 +17.9 +6.7 +10.1
  Thu, Nov 6 155 Wright St. W 77-67 86%     2 - 0 +6.7 +3.5 +3.2
  Mon, Nov 10 323 Cal St. Fullerton W 93-65 96%     3 - 0 +16.3 +5.8 +7.9
  Thu, Nov 13 57 @Kansas St. L 96-99 33%     3 - 1 +9.7 +17.9 -8.0
  Tue, Nov 18 275 Presbyterian W 67-57 94%     4 - 1 +0.7 +5.2 -2.4
  Fri, Nov 21 273 Sacramento St. W 91-67 94%     5 - 1 +14.9 +7.8 +5.4
  Tue, Nov 25 30 UCLA W 80-72 31%     6 - 1 +21.4 +13.8 +7.5
  Tue, Dec 2 121 Utah W 81-73 78%    
  Sat, Dec 6 144 Pacific W 78-68 84%    
  Sat, Dec 13 284 Northwestern St. W 81-63 95%    
  Fri, Dec 19 360 Morgan St. W 90-65 99%    
  Sun, Dec 21 133 Columbia W 81-72 80%    
  Tue, Dec 30 8 Louisville L 75-83 23%    
  Fri, Jan 2 65 Notre Dame W 73-70 60%    
  Wed, Jan 7 37 @Virginia L 71-78 26%    
  Sat, Jan 10 75 @Virginia Tech L 75-77 43%    
  Wed, Jan 14 2 Duke L 70-81 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 26 North Carolina L 77-80 40%    
  Sat, Jan 24 88 @Stanford L 77-78 47%    
  Wed, Jan 28 82 @Florida St. L 80-81 45%    
  Sat, Jan 31 38 @Miami (FL) L 73-80 26%    
  Wed, Feb 4 115 Georgia Tech W 76-68 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 35 Clemson L 72-73 45%    
  Wed, Feb 11 64 @Syracuse L 73-76 38%    
  Sat, Feb 14 127 @Boston College W 72-69 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 88 Stanford W 80-75 68%    
  Wed, Feb 25 39 SMU L 79-80 47%    
  Sat, Feb 28 92 Pittsburgh W 74-68 69%    
  Wed, Mar 4 115 @Georgia Tech W 73-71 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 41 @Wake Forest L 74-81 28%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 3.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.3 0.8 0.1 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.5 0.2 0.0 5.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.8 2.8 0.4 0.0 6.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 3.9 1.2 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.0 2.7 0.2 7.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.6 4.2 0.7 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 4.6 2.2 0.1 7.9 10th
11th 0.2 3.2 3.9 0.6 7.9 11th
12th 0.0 1.3 4.7 1.6 0.0 7.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.5 3.6 3.1 0.3 7.4 13th
14th 0.1 1.8 4.0 0.9 0.0 6.8 14th
15th 0.0 0.9 3.1 1.7 0.1 5.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.6 1.9 2.0 0.4 4.9 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.0 17th
18th 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.7 18th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.0 5.0 8.0 11.2 13.0 13.7 13.1 11.2 8.4 5.7 3.3 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 73.0% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-3 42.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-4 13.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 1.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 7.9% 92.1% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.8% 99.6% 7.1% 92.4% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
14-4 1.7% 98.2% 4.9% 93.3% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1%
13-5 3.3% 93.0% 5.2% 87.8% 7.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 92.6%
12-6 5.7% 81.3% 1.5% 79.9% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.0 1.1 81.0%
11-7 8.4% 64.4% 2.0% 62.4% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 1.2 0.0 3.0 63.6%
10-8 11.2% 40.3% 0.6% 39.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.0 0.0 6.7 39.9%
9-9 13.1% 20.0% 0.5% 19.6% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 0.1 10.5 19.7%
8-10 13.7% 5.4% 0.2% 5.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 12.9 5.3%
7-11 13.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.9 0.9%
6-12 11.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 11.2 0.0%
5-13 8.0% 8.0
4-14 5.0% 5.0
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 1.2% 1.2
1-17 0.4% 0.4
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 23.8% 0.7% 23.1% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.9 3.1 4.2 6.1 5.9 0.3 76.2 23.3%