California
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.7#231
Expected Predictive Rating-15.1#342
Pace59.5#354
Improvement-0.4#320

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#291
First Shot-4.9#321
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#106
Layup/Dunks-0.2#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#314
Freethrows+0.2#164
Improvement-0.2#251

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#178
First Shot-1.7#230
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#65
Layups/Dunks-0.3#198
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#206
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#212
Freethrows-0.8#230
Improvement-0.3#306
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 n/a 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.3% 5.5% 0.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 57.9% 28.2% 58.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 0.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 8
Quad 21 - 91 - 17
Quad 31 - 53 - 22
Quad 42 - 45 - 26


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 161   UC Davis L 65-75 46%     0 - 1 -12.6 -8.5 -4.1
  Nov 11, 2022 47   Kansas St. L 54-63 16%     0 - 2 -2.0 -13.7 +11.6
  Nov 15, 2022 283   @ UC San Diego L 62-64 48%     0 - 3 -5.3 -4.0 -1.6
  Nov 18, 2022 214   Southern L 66-74 58%     0 - 4 -13.8 -2.7 -11.7
  Nov 21, 2022 167   Texas St. L 55-59 48%     0 - 5 -7.0 -8.9 +1.1
  Nov 25, 2022 53   TCU L 48-59 12%     0 - 6 -1.6 -10.5 +7.2
  Nov 26, 2022 76   Clemson L 59-67 16%     0 - 7 -0.8 -0.7 -1.6
  Nov 30, 2022 73   USC L 51-66 22%     0 - 8 -10.4 -12.0 -0.2
  Dec 04, 2022 6   @ Arizona L 62-87 1%    
  Dec 07, 2022 255   Eastern Washington W 67-63 65%    
  Dec 10, 2022 55   Butler L 56-66 18%    
  Dec 18, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara L 61-72 15%    
  Dec 21, 2022 291   Texas Arlington W 61-55 72%    
  Dec 29, 2022 70   Utah L 57-66 22%    
  Dec 31, 2022 44   Colorado L 60-71 17%    
  Jan 06, 2023 79   Stanford L 56-64 24%    
  Jan 11, 2023 51   @ Washington St. L 55-71 7%    
  Jan 14, 2023 91   @ Washington L 57-69 13%    
  Jan 18, 2023 50   Oregon L 60-70 18%    
  Jan 22, 2023 217   Oregon St. W 62-60 59%    
  Jan 28, 2023 79   @ Stanford L 53-67 11%    
  Feb 02, 2023 44   @ Colorado L 57-74 7%    
  Feb 05, 2023 70   @ Utah L 54-69 9%    
  Feb 09, 2023 6   Arizona L 65-84 5%    
  Feb 11, 2023 40   Arizona St. L 55-66 16%    
  Feb 16, 2023 73   @ USC L 56-70 10%    
  Feb 18, 2023 9   @ UCLA L 53-77 2%    
  Feb 23, 2023 91   Washington L 60-66 29%    
  Feb 25, 2023 51   Washington St. L 58-68 18%    
  Mar 02, 2023 50   @ Oregon L 57-73 8%    
  Mar 04, 2023 217   @ Oregon St. L 59-63 38%    
Projected Record 5 - 26 3 - 16





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.0 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 10.6 10th
11th 1.0 6.9 12.6 11.3 5.4 1.3 0.1 38.6 11th
12th 5.7 13.6 14.1 7.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 44.1 12th
Total 5.7 14.7 21.0 20.8 16.4 10.5 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.1
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 1.3% 1.3
7-13 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 5.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.8
5-15 10.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.5
4-16 16.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.4
3-17 20.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.8
2-18 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.9
1-19 14.7% 14.7
0-20 5.7% 5.7
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%