USC
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#16
Expected Predictive Rating+16.4#15
Pace66.7#244
Improvement+0.1#169

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#30
First Shot+3.2#87
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#25
Layup/Dunks+8.1#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#85
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#305
Freethrows-2.3#305
Improvement-1.3#301

Defense
Total Defense+8.6#7
First Shot+11.6#2
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#325
Layups/Dunks+1.4#144
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#11
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#69
Freethrows+3.5#15
Improvement+1.4#62
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.1% 1.3% 0.2%
#1 Seed 6.4% 7.4% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 14.9% 17.0% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 37.6% 41.5% 18.9%
Top 6 Seed 58.6% 62.9% 38.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 91.2% 93.2% 81.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 89.1% 91.5% 79.0%
Average Seed 5.5 5.3 6.8
.500 or above 99.7% 99.8% 98.9%
.500 or above in Conference 95.4% 97.0% 87.9%
Conference Champion 19.9% 22.5% 7.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four3.1% 2.7% 5.1%
First Round89.8% 92.1% 79.2%
Second Round65.6% 68.5% 51.9%
Sweet Sixteen35.2% 37.8% 22.9%
Elite Eight17.5% 19.1% 10.2%
Final Four8.1% 8.9% 4.2%
Championship Game3.8% 4.2% 1.6%
National Champion1.5% 1.7% 0.4%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 82.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 5
Quad 27 - 212 - 7
Quad 38 - 120 - 7
Quad 45 - 026 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 273   Cal St. Northridge W 89-49 98%     1 - 0 +31.0 +14.3 +18.0
  Nov 13, 2021 149   @ Temple W 76-71 84%     2 - 0 +9.2 +4.0 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2021 190   @ Florida Gulf Coast W 78-61 89%     3 - 0 +18.7 +6.6 +12.5
  Nov 22, 2021 307   Dixie St. W 98-71 98%     4 - 0 +15.9 +5.3 +6.9
  Nov 25, 2021 221   Saint Joseph's W 70-55 94%     5 - 0 +12.4 -3.6 +16.5
  Nov 26, 2021 48   San Diego St. W 58-43 71%     6 - 0 +24.2 +5.0 +22.4
  Dec 01, 2021 56   Utah W 73-63 83%    
  Dec 04, 2021 58   @ Washington St. W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 07, 2021 160   Eastern Kentucky W 85-67 95%    
  Dec 12, 2021 290   Long Beach St. W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 15, 2021 69   UC Irvine W 69-58 84%    
  Dec 18, 2021 87   Georgia Tech W 71-62 79%    
  Dec 21, 2021 34   Oklahoma St. W 69-66 61%    
  Dec 30, 2021 97   Arizona St. W 77-64 87%    
  Jan 02, 2022 5   Arizona L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 06, 2022 121   @ California W 67-58 80%    
  Jan 08, 2022 96   @ Stanford W 72-65 73%    
  Jan 13, 2022 127   Oregon St. W 73-58 92%    
  Jan 15, 2022 52   Oregon W 72-63 80%    
  Jan 20, 2022 74   @ Colorado W 70-65 68%    
  Jan 22, 2022 56   @ Utah W 70-66 64%    
  Jan 27, 2022 96   Stanford W 75-62 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 121   California W 70-55 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 97   @ Arizona St. W 74-67 72%    
  Feb 05, 2022 5   @ Arizona L 69-75 30%    
  Feb 12, 2022 6   UCLA W 71-70 51%    
  Feb 17, 2022 143   Washington W 77-61 93%    
  Feb 20, 2022 58   Washington St. W 74-64 81%    
  Feb 24, 2022 127   @ Oregon St. W 70-61 80%    
  Feb 26, 2022 52   @ Oregon W 69-66 62%    
  Mar 05, 2022 6   @ UCLA L 67-73 31%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 14 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 6.1 5.2 2.5 0.5 19.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 3.8 7.9 7.9 4.2 0.6 25.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.5 6.6 8.5 5.7 1.6 0.1 25.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.9 4.3 1.9 0.3 0.0 14.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.8 2.0 0.6 0.1 7.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 3.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 2.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 4.2 6.5 9.7 12.5 14.5 15.2 13.6 10.4 5.8 2.5 0.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 2.5    2.4 0.1
18-2 89.6% 5.2    4.1 1.1 0.0
17-3 58.7% 6.1    3.5 2.3 0.3
16-4 29.5% 4.0    1.5 2.0 0.5 0.0
15-5 8.6% 1.3    0.3 0.6 0.3 0.1
14-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 19.9% 19.9 12.4 6.2 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 48.5% 51.5% 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 5.8% 100.0% 41.0% 59.0% 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 10.4% 100.0% 32.1% 67.9% 2.7 1.6 2.9 3.2 1.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 13.6% 100.0% 25.2% 74.8% 3.7 0.6 1.9 3.6 3.8 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 15.2% 99.6% 20.5% 79.1% 4.9 0.1 0.5 2.1 3.6 3.6 2.9 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
14-6 14.5% 98.7% 16.5% 82.2% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.1 3.3 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.4%
13-7 12.5% 96.6% 11.7% 84.9% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 2.6 2.5 1.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.4 96.1%
12-8 9.7% 89.7% 8.5% 81.3% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.0 88.8%
11-9 6.5% 77.4% 6.7% 70.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.5 75.8%
10-10 4.2% 55.0% 3.9% 51.1% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 53.2%
9-11 2.4% 27.5% 2.9% 24.5% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.8 25.3%
8-12 1.2% 11.3% 3.2% 8.0% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.1 8.3%
7-13 0.6% 2.2% 1.8% 0.4% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.4%
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 91.2% 19.0% 72.2% 5.5 6.4 8.5 10.9 11.7 10.9 10.2 8.9 7.4 6.1 4.9 3.9 1.2 0.1 8.8 89.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 78.9 20.0 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.3 66.1 33.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 1.1 85.7 14.3