USC
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.4#29
Expected Predictive Rating+18.8#14
Pace74.3#74
Improvement-1.3#283

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#30
First Shot+7.6#23
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#129
Layup/Dunks+2.7#82
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#121
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#187
Freethrows+4.1#16
Improvement+0.9#98

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#45
First Shot+4.9#48
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#173
Layups/Dunks-1.1#224
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#77
Freethrows+3.1#26
Improvement-2.2#335
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.9% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.5% 3.5% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 13.6% 17.4% 7.5%
Top 6 Seed 33.4% 40.4% 22.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.6% 84.5% 69.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.2% 84.1% 68.8%
Average Seed 7.0 6.7 7.6
.500 or above 98.1% 99.2% 96.4%
.500 or above in Conference 69.9% 78.8% 55.7%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.1% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four6.7% 5.4% 8.6%
First Round75.1% 81.8% 64.6%
Second Round46.9% 53.0% 37.3%
Sweet Sixteen17.7% 21.2% 12.2%
Elite Eight6.5% 8.0% 4.1%
Final Four2.4% 3.0% 1.5%
Championship Game0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Oregon (Away) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 8
Quad 27 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 017 - 10
Quad 45 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 240 Cal Poly W 94-64 96%     1 - 0 +22.4 +3.4 +14.4
  Sun, Nov 9 315 Manhattan W 114-83 98%     2 - 0 +19.8 +13.5 +1.7
  Fri, Nov 14 100 Illinois St. W 87-67 79%     3 - 0 +24.8 +17.6 +7.5
  Thu, Nov 20 135 Troy W 107-106 3OT 91%     4 - 0 -0.2 +1.6 -2.2
  Mon, Nov 24 60 Boise St. W 70-67 66%     5 - 0 +12.3 +4.0 +8.3
  Tue, Nov 25 74 Seton Hall W 83-81 71%     6 - 0 +9.6 +16.7 -7.1
  Wed, Nov 26 81 Arizona St. W 88-75 73%     7 - 0 +19.9 +21.7 -1.1
  Tue, Dec 2 78 @Oregon W 79-76 61%    
  Sat, Dec 6 58 Washington W 81-74 74%    
  Tue, Dec 9 245 @San Diego W 89-74 92%    
  Sun, Dec 14 159 Washington St. W 91-74 94%    
  Wed, Dec 17 230 Texas San Antonio W 89-68 97%    
  Sun, Dec 21 250 Brown W 82-61 98%    
  Fri, Jan 2 1 @Michigan L 73-88 8%    
  Mon, Jan 5 12 @Michigan St. L 71-79 24%    
  Fri, Jan 9 109 @Minnesota W 75-69 72%    
  Tue, Jan 13 95 Maryland W 84-73 83%    
  Sat, Jan 17 3 Purdue L 75-81 30%    
  Wed, Jan 21 55 Northwestern W 81-74 73%    
  Sun, Jan 25 34 @Wisconsin L 79-81 42%    
  Wed, Jan 28 20 @Iowa L 72-77 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 120 Rutgers W 81-68 89%    
  Tue, Feb 3 21 Indiana W 78-77 55%    
  Sun, Feb 8 104 @Penn St. W 81-75 70%    
  Wed, Feb 11 24 @Ohio St. L 77-81 36%    
  Wed, Feb 18 18 Illinois L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Feb 21 78 Oregon W 82-73 79%    
  Tue, Feb 24 30 @UCLA L 72-75 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 42 Nebraska W 83-78 65%    
  Wed, Mar 4 58 @Washington W 78-77 54%    
  Sat, Mar 7 30 UCLA W 75-72 61%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.8 2.5 2.7 0.9 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.0 3.5 1.2 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.4 1.6 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.2 2.2 5.0 2.5 0.2 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 4.8 3.8 0.5 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.3 1.0 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.2 2.2 4.7 1.6 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.0 2.5 0.3 0.0 7.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 6.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.6 2.8 1.0 0.1 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.0 0.1 3.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.0 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.1 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 5.3 8.2 10.7 13.0 13.6 13.5 11.3 8.2 5.5 3.0 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 94.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
18-2 74.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
17-3 37.9% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 13.1% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.1% 100.0% 13.2% 86.8% 1.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.3% 100.0% 15.7% 84.3% 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.4% 100.0% 12.0% 88.0% 2.5 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.0% 100.0% 8.4% 91.6% 3.2 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 100.0%
15-5 5.5% 100.0% 5.7% 94.3% 4.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.2% 100.0% 3.5% 96.5% 4.9 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.3% 99.8% 2.4% 97.4% 5.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 3.4 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 13.5% 99.0% 1.6% 97.4% 6.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 3.3 3.8 2.6 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 13.6% 95.3% 1.0% 94.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.1 3.6 2.7 1.4 0.2 0.6 95.2%
10-10 13.0% 87.8% 0.4% 87.4% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 87.8%
9-11 10.7% 67.0% 0.3% 66.7% 9.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.6 2.2 0.1 3.5 66.9%
8-12 8.2% 39.4% 0.1% 39.3% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 1.9 0.1 5.0 39.4%
7-13 5.3% 12.4% 0.1% 12.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 12.4%
6-14 3.2% 1.2% 1.2% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.2%
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.7% 0.7
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 78.6% 1.8% 76.7% 7.0 0.6 1.9 4.3 6.7 8.9 10.9 11.3 10.2 9.3 8.4 5.7 0.3 0.0 21.4 78.2%