USC
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#83
Expected Predictive Rating+5.8#98
Pace70.1#139
Improvement+0.3#41

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#131
First Shot+3.2#89
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#275
Layup/Dunks+4.6#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#276
Freethrows+0.2#154
Improvement+0.1#81

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#54
First Shot+2.5#95
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#44
Layups/Dunks+2.5#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#255
Freethrows+1.6#91
Improvement+0.1#86
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.8% 12.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 8.1% 9.3% 3.0%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.5
.500 or above 57.6% 62.6% 35.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.6% 34.5% 23.9%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 2.2% 1.9% 3.5%
First Four3.1% 3.4% 1.9%
First Round9.2% 10.4% 4.3%
Second Round3.4% 3.8% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 81.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 42 - 9
Quad 23 - 35 - 13
Quad 35 - 29 - 15
Quad 47 - 016 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 121   Florida Gulf Coast L 61-74 73%     0 - 1 -12.9 -14.2 +1.5
  Nov 10, 2022 355   Alabama St. W 96-58 98%     1 - 1 +20.2 +8.4 +8.4
  Nov 15, 2022 160   Vermont W 59-57 81%     2 - 1 -0.7 -12.6 +12.0
  Nov 18, 2022 237   Mount St. Mary's W 83-74 89%     3 - 1 +2.3 +2.1 -0.4
  Nov 23, 2022 131   BYU W 82-76 64%     4 - 1 +8.8 +5.1 +3.3
  Nov 24, 2022 4   Tennessee L 66-73 OT 13%     4 - 2 +12.0 +3.5 +8.8
  Nov 25, 2022 32   Wisconsin L 59-64 30%     4 - 3 +7.1 +2.5 +3.9
  Nov 30, 2022 244   @ California W 66-51 77%     5 - 3 +14.0 +3.6 +12.2
  Dec 04, 2022 188   Oregon St. W 63-62 85%     6 - 3 1 - 0 -3.3 -3.3 +0.1
  Dec 07, 2022 214   Cal St. Fullerton W 64-50 87%     7 - 3 +8.6 -10.7 +19.7
  Dec 14, 2022 169   Long Beach St. W 78-68 82%    
  Dec 18, 2022 23   Auburn L 66-70 34%    
  Dec 21, 2022 87   Colorado St. W 69-68 52%    
  Dec 30, 2022 85   @ Washington L 67-70 40%    
  Jan 01, 2023 64   @ Washington St. L 65-70 34%    
  Jan 05, 2023 6   @ UCLA L 63-77 10%    
  Jan 12, 2023 59   Colorado W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 14, 2023 49   Utah L 65-66 48%    
  Jan 19, 2023 14   @ Arizona L 76-88 14%    
  Jan 21, 2023 38   @ Arizona St. L 62-69 25%    
  Jan 26, 2023 6   UCLA L 66-74 23%    
  Feb 02, 2023 64   Washington St. W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 85   Washington W 70-67 62%    
  Feb 09, 2023 43   @ Oregon L 66-73 27%    
  Feb 11, 2023 188   @ Oregon St. W 69-64 67%    
  Feb 16, 2023 244   California W 68-54 89%    
  Feb 18, 2023 79   Stanford W 68-65 60%    
  Feb 23, 2023 59   @ Colorado L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 25, 2023 49   @ Utah L 62-68 29%    
  Mar 02, 2023 14   Arizona L 79-85 29%    
  Mar 04, 2023 38   Arizona St. L 65-66 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 3.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.5 1.0 0.1 5.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.1 1.6 0.1 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.4 2.3 0.2 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.5 3.7 0.4 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.0 7.1 4.5 0.7 0.0 15.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 3.6 6.9 4.7 0.8 0.0 16.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.1 5.6 3.5 0.8 0.0 15.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.0 2.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 6.9 10.6 13.9 15.9 14.9 12.6 9.0 5.6 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 86.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 60.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 29.1% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 9.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 6.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 96.1% 11.4% 84.6% 7.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.6%
14-6 1.5% 83.2% 8.2% 75.0% 8.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 81.7%
13-7 3.2% 65.9% 6.5% 59.5% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.1 63.6%
12-8 5.6% 41.9% 5.9% 35.9% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 3.2 38.2%
11-9 9.0% 20.8% 4.0% 16.7% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 17.4%
10-10 12.6% 8.9% 4.1% 4.9% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 11.5 5.1%
9-11 14.9% 3.3% 2.6% 0.6% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.4 0.6%
8-12 15.9% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 15.6 0.0%
7-13 13.9% 1.9% 1.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 13.7
6-14 10.6% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 10.4
5-15 6.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.8
4-16 3.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
3-17 1.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
2-18 0.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 10.8% 3.0% 7.9% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.8 1.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 89.2 8.1%