UCLA
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#5
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#12
Pace65.4#267
Improvement-0.8#279

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#21
First Shot+5.5#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#43
Layup/Dunks+6.3#11
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#316
Freethrows-0.9#249
Improvement-1.1#324

Defense
Total Defense+10.4#3
First Shot+7.3#14
After Offensive Rebounds+3.1#4
Layups/Dunks+5.7#17
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#170
Freethrows+2.8#21
Improvement+0.3#135
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.5% 5.7% 1.4%
#1 Seed 29.9% 30.9% 11.7%
Top 2 Seed 64.1% 65.7% 37.6%
Top 4 Seed 94.8% 95.5% 83.8%
Top 6 Seed 99.5% 99.6% 97.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.3 2.2 3.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 85.0% 86.1% 65.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Second Round94.2% 94.5% 89.5%
Sweet Sixteen67.7% 68.1% 61.6%
Elite Eight43.4% 43.8% 36.0%
Final Four25.7% 26.0% 20.5%
Championship Game14.7% 14.9% 11.1%
National Champion8.3% 8.4% 5.9%

Next Game: Washington (Home) - 94.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 32 - 3
Quad 1b5 - 26 - 5
Quad 27 - 014 - 5
Quad 35 - 019 - 6
Quad 46 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 219   Sacramento St. W 76-50 97%     1 - 0 +20.8 +2.5 +19.2
  Nov 11, 2022 165   Long Beach St. W 93-69 96%     2 - 0 +21.4 +6.4 +11.8
  Nov 14, 2022 203   Norfolk St. W 86-56 97%     3 - 0 +25.6 +17.3 +11.5
  Nov 18, 2022 17   Illinois L 70-79 65%     3 - 1 +5.1 -0.8 +6.7
  Nov 20, 2022 14   Baylor L 75-80 63%     3 - 2 +9.8 +7.7 +2.0
  Nov 23, 2022 190   Pepperdine W 100-53 97%     4 - 2 +43.1 +21.0 +20.2
  Nov 27, 2022 253   Bellarmine W 81-60 98%     5 - 2 +13.5 +7.5 +7.0
  Dec 01, 2022 90   @ Stanford W 80-66 82%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +22.2 +15.0 +7.9
  Dec 04, 2022 48   Oregon W 65-56 84%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +16.3 +2.8 +14.6
  Dec 10, 2022 318   Denver W 87-64 99%     8 - 2 +11.6 +2.0 +8.3
  Dec 14, 2022 31   @ Maryland W 87-60 61%     9 - 2 +42.1 +25.2 +17.9
  Dec 17, 2022 32   Kentucky W 63-53 71%     10 - 2 +22.3 -1.9 +24.7
  Dec 21, 2022 174   UC Davis W 81-54 96%     11 - 2 +24.2 +6.5 +17.6
  Dec 30, 2022 63   @ Washington St. W 67-66 75%     12 - 2 3 - 0 +12.2 +6.4 +5.9
  Jan 01, 2023 102   @ Washington W 74-49 85%     13 - 2 4 - 0 +32.1 +9.5 +23.8
  Jan 05, 2023 44   USC W 60-58 83%     14 - 2 5 - 0 +9.8 +2.5 +7.7
  Jan 12, 2023 51   Utah W 68-49 85%     15 - 2 6 - 0 +26.2 +9.4 +19.2
  Jan 14, 2023 61   Colorado W 68-54 87%     16 - 2 7 - 0 +19.9 +3.0 +17.2
  Jan 19, 2023 66   @ Arizona St. W 74-62 75%     17 - 2 8 - 0 +23.1 +15.9 +8.3
  Jan 21, 2023 9   @ Arizona L 52-58 48%     17 - 3 8 - 1 +12.5 -10.1 +22.3
  Jan 26, 2023 44   @ USC L 64-77 68%     17 - 4 8 - 2 +0.2 +4.5 -5.6
  Feb 02, 2023 102   Washington W 76-60 94%    
  Feb 04, 2023 63   Washington St. W 70-58 88%    
  Feb 09, 2023 185   @ Oregon St. W 71-55 93%    
  Feb 11, 2023 48   @ Oregon W 70-65 68%    
  Feb 16, 2023 90   Stanford W 74-59 93%    
  Feb 18, 2023 224   California W 74-50 99%    
  Feb 24, 2023 51   @ Utah W 67-62 69%    
  Feb 26, 2023 61   @ Colorado W 70-63 73%    
  Mar 02, 2023 66   Arizona St. W 72-60 88%    
  Mar 04, 2023 9   Arizona W 76-71 69%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 8.9 25.8 32.4 17.0 85.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.2 2.4 13.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.6 15.2 28.2 32.4 17.0 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 17.0    17.0
17-3 100.0% 32.4    30.9 1.4
16-4 91.3% 25.8    17.9 7.9 0.1
15-5 58.6% 8.9    3.3 4.6 0.9 0.0
14-6 17.1% 1.0    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 85.0% 85.0 69.2 14.3 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 17.0% 100.0% 43.6% 56.4% 1.3 12.1 4.7 0.2 100.0%
17-3 32.4% 100.0% 40.5% 59.5% 1.7 13.2 15.3 3.6 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 28.2% 100.0% 36.9% 63.1% 2.4 4.2 11.7 9.5 2.7 0.2 100.0%
15-5 15.2% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 3.3 0.4 2.4 6.0 5.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.6% 99.9% 29.6% 70.3% 4.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 1.4% 98.8% 25.3% 73.5% 5.4 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.4%
12-8 0.3% 98.5% 28.7% 69.9% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.9%
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 38.0% 61.9% 2.3 29.9 34.2 20.4 10.3 3.5 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 17.0% 100.0% 1.3 71.3 27.6 1.1