UCLA
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.9#80
Expected Predictive Rating+5.9#99
Pace61.5#344
Improvement+2.0#93

Offense
Total Offense+0.4#171
First Shot-0.8#194
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#103
Layup/Dunks-1.0#210
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.4#348
Freethrows+3.0#25
Improvement+0.9#128

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#25
First Shot+6.0#25
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#131
Layups/Dunks+10.6#2
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#282
Freethrows-0.5#223
Improvement+1.1#120
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.9% 5.1% 3.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 1.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 12.0 14.2
.500 or above 42.7% 80.5% 25.0%
.500 or above in Conference 85.0% 100.0% 77.9%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 1.2% 0.0%
First Round3.7% 4.5% 3.3%
Second Round0.8% 1.3% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington (Away) - 31.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 50 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 8
Quad 27 - 38 - 11
Quad 33 - 310 - 15
Quad 44 - 114 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 354   St. Francis (PA) W 75-44 98%     1 - 0 +13.4 +0.1 +16.0
  Nov 10, 2023 306   Lafayette W 68-50 94%     2 - 0 +7.3 -0.3 +9.3
  Nov 15, 2023 349   LIU Brooklyn W 78-58 98%     3 - 0 +3.3 +0.2 +3.4
  Nov 20, 2023 13   Marquette L 69-71 20%     3 - 1 +13.8 +8.0 +5.6
  Nov 22, 2023 18   Gonzaga L 65-69 23%     3 - 2 +10.6 +1.3 +9.0
  Nov 30, 2023 204   UC Riverside W 66-65 87%     4 - 2 -4.5 -3.8 -0.6
  Dec 09, 2023 29   @ Villanova L 56-65 22%     4 - 3 +5.9 -0.7 +5.4
  Dec 16, 2023 63   Ohio St. L 60-67 42%     4 - 4 +1.9 -11.0 +12.8
  Dec 19, 2023 223   Cal St. Northridge L 72-76 88%     4 - 5 -9.9 -8.2 -1.4
  Dec 22, 2023 41   Maryland L 60-69 46%     4 - 6 -1.0 +1.7 -3.7
  Dec 28, 2023 141   @ Oregon St. W 69-62 59%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +11.5 +7.1 +5.3
  Dec 30, 2023 53   @ Oregon L 59-64 30%     5 - 7 1 - 1 +7.3 -1.8 +8.6
  Jan 03, 2024 98   Stanford L 53-59 65%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -3.0 -17.4 +14.2
  Jan 06, 2024 100   California L 57-66 66%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -6.4 -9.9 +2.7
  Jan 11, 2024 52   @ Utah L 44-90 29%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -33.4 -22.4 -11.6
  Jan 14, 2024 62   Washington W 73-61 53%     6 - 10 2 - 4 +18.1 +0.5 +17.4
  Jan 17, 2024 105   @ Arizona St. W 68-66 47%     7 - 10 3 - 4 +9.6 +14.6 -4.6
  Jan 20, 2024 4   @ Arizona L 71-77 8%     7 - 11 3 - 5 +16.8 +12.2 +4.2
  Jan 27, 2024 96   @ USC W 65-50 43%     8 - 11 4 - 5 +23.6 +8.3 +17.9
  Feb 01, 2024 141   Oregon St. W 71-63 77%     9 - 11 5 - 5 +7.0 +6.5 +1.5
  Feb 03, 2024 53   Oregon W 71-63 50%     10 - 11 6 - 5 +14.8 +9.2 +6.6
  Feb 07, 2024 98   @ Stanford W 82-74 44%     11 - 11 7 - 5 +16.4 +12.2 +4.2
  Feb 10, 2024 100   @ California W 61-60 46%     12 - 11 8 - 5 +9.0 -1.4 +10.6
  Feb 15, 2024 31   Colorado W 64-60 40%     13 - 11 9 - 5 +13.4 +7.3 +7.0
  Feb 18, 2024 52   Utah L 69-70 49%     13 - 12 9 - 6 +6.1 +6.0 +0.0
  Feb 24, 2024 96   USC L 56-62 64%     13 - 13 9 - 7 -2.9 -11.5 +8.2
  Feb 29, 2024 62   @ Washington L 67-72 32%    
  Mar 02, 2024 36   @ Washington St. L 59-66 23%    
  Mar 07, 2024 4   Arizona L 67-77 17%    
  Mar 09, 2024 105   Arizona St. W 67-62 68%    
Projected Record 14 - 16 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.2 0.5 0.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 4.3 0.6 6.0 3rd
4th 1.9 15.1 5.1 0.0 22.2 4th
5th 0.8 28.0 15.5 0.1 44.3 5th
6th 4.5 11.8 0.1 16.5 6th
7th 6.2 0.5 6.7 7th
8th 3.1 0.0 3.1 8th
9th 0.5 0.5 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 15.0 42.3 31.7 9.8 1.2 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 1.2% 38.3% 6.0% 32.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.7 34.4%
12-8 9.8% 6.1% 4.7% 1.3% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 9.2 1.4%
11-9 31.7% 3.6% 3.6% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 30.6
10-10 42.3% 3.2% 3.2% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.0 40.9
9-11 15.0% 2.3% 2.3% 15.2 0.3 0.1 14.7
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.9% 3.4% 0.5% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 0.1 96.1 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 38.3% 10.4 0.2 2.6 18.1 17.3 0.2
Lose Out 15.0% 2.3% 15.2 1.8 0.5