UCLA
Big Ten
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#18
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#70
Pace60.3#354
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+6.1#35
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#12
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
#1 Seed 4.8% 6.0% 1.9%
Top 2 Seed 11.3% 13.9% 4.9%
Top 4 Seed 26.7% 31.7% 14.7%
Top 6 Seed 42.3% 48.3% 28.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.2% 76.9% 57.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.5% 74.4% 55.2%
Average Seed 5.8 5.5 6.6
.500 or above 86.7% 91.1% 76.1%
.500 or above in Conference 71.3% 75.4% 61.4%
Conference Champion 12.2% 14.3% 7.1%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.1% 5.0%
First Four4.0% 3.7% 4.8%
First Round69.0% 74.9% 55.1%
Second Round48.9% 54.3% 36.1%
Sweet Sixteen24.5% 27.9% 16.5%
Elite Eight11.8% 13.8% 7.0%
Final Four5.5% 6.5% 2.9%
Championship Game2.3% 2.8% 1.1%
National Champion0.9% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: New Mexico (Neutral) - 70.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 37 - 9
Quad 25 - 212 - 11
Quad 33 - 015 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 249   Rider W 85-50 96%     1 - 0 +27.6 +16.7 +13.9
  Nov 08, 2024 76   New Mexico W 74-68 71%    
  Nov 11, 2024 281   Boston University W 76-54 98%    
  Nov 15, 2024 275   Lehigh W 79-57 98%    
  Nov 20, 2024 297   Idaho St. W 72-49 98%    
  Nov 22, 2024 228   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-54 96%    
  Nov 26, 2024 221   Southern Utah W 78-59 95%    
  Dec 03, 2024 70   Washington W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 08, 2024 37   @ Oregon L 67-68 47%    
  Dec 13, 2024 9   Arizona L 70-73 40%    
  Dec 17, 2024 343   Prairie View W 83-55 99%    
  Dec 21, 2024 10   North Carolina L 69-72 40%    
  Dec 28, 2024 3   Gonzaga L 67-74 28%    
  Jan 04, 2025 54   @ Nebraska W 68-67 52%    
  Jan 07, 2025 17   Michigan W 69-66 60%    
  Jan 10, 2025 35   @ Maryland L 62-63 46%    
  Jan 13, 2025 31   @ Rutgers L 63-65 45%    
  Jan 17, 2025 52   Iowa W 76-70 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 49   Wisconsin W 68-62 70%    
  Jan 24, 2025 70   @ Washington W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 27, 2025 39   @ USC L 67-68 48%    
  Jan 30, 2025 37   Oregon W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 04, 2025 25   Michigan St. W 65-61 62%    
  Feb 08, 2025 55   Penn St. W 72-65 71%    
  Feb 11, 2025 19   @ Illinois L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 14, 2025 27   @ Indiana L 66-68 43%    
  Feb 18, 2025 67   Minnesota W 70-62 76%    
  Feb 23, 2025 24   Ohio St. W 68-64 62%    
  Feb 28, 2025 11   @ Purdue L 65-70 34%    
  Mar 03, 2025 46   @ Northwestern L 62-63 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 39   USC W 70-65 67%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.1 3.4 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.2 12.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 2.6 3.2 2.0 0.6 0.1 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 3.5 1.7 0.3 0.0 8.8 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 3.7 1.7 0.2 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.0 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.3 2.8 3.2 0.6 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.8 1.3 0.1 6.4 7th
8th 0.4 2.7 2.6 0.3 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.3 2.7 1.9 0.1 5.1 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 4.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.2 0.1 3.9 12th
13th 0.2 1.4 1.9 0.3 0.0 3.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 1.7 0.8 0.0 3.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.1 2.9 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.3 2.5 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.2 17th
18th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6 18th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.4 5.3 6.6 8.4 10.2 11.0 11.4 10.3 8.8 7.3 5.7 3.6 2.0 0.9 0.2 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.0
18-2 97.3% 1.9    1.7 0.2 0.0
17-3 84.0% 3.0    2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0
16-4 59.2% 3.4    1.8 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 29.3% 2.1    0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.0% 0.6    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.2% 12.2 7.6 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 100.0% 54.3% 45.7% 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.9% 100.0% 43.9% 56.1% 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 35.2% 64.8% 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 3.6% 100.0% 31.8% 68.2% 1.9 1.4 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 5.7% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 2.6 1.0 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 7.3% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 3.5 0.4 1.3 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.8% 99.8% 13.9% 86.0% 4.5 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 10.3% 99.2% 8.4% 90.8% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.4 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
12-8 11.4% 95.8% 4.5% 91.3% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 2.2 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.5 95.6%
11-9 11.0% 88.7% 3.5% 85.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 1.2 88.3%
10-10 10.2% 71.0% 1.8% 69.2% 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 3.0 70.5%
9-11 8.4% 42.3% 1.1% 41.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 4.8 41.6%
8-12 6.6% 15.0% 0.3% 14.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.2 5.6 14.8%
7-13 5.3% 2.7% 2.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.1 2.7%
6-14 3.4% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 3.4 0.3%
5-15 2.4% 2.4
4-16 1.5% 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.8
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 71.2% 8.4% 62.8% 5.8 4.8 6.5 7.8 7.6 8.0 7.7 7.4 6.7 5.7 4.4 4.0 0.7 0.0 28.8 68.5%