UCLA
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.5#8
Expected Predictive Rating+19.1#9
Pace70.7#141
Improvement-2.4#336

Offense
Total Offense+10.3#7
First Shot+6.7#23
After Offensive Rebound+3.6#14
Layup/Dunks+2.1#101
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#29
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#140
Freethrows-0.4#211
Improvement-2.2#339

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#24
First Shot+3.7#68
After Offensive Rebounds+3.5#18
Layups/Dunks-1.2#232
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#71
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#102
Freethrows+1.2#118
Improvement-0.2#200
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.8% 2.9% 1.3%
#1 Seed 14.2% 15.2% 4.6%
Top 2 Seed 30.2% 32.0% 12.4%
Top 4 Seed 62.4% 64.9% 38.7%
Top 6 Seed 80.9% 83.0% 60.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 97.5% 97.9% 93.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 96.3% 96.9% 91.9%
Average Seed 4.1 3.9 5.5
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.6% 96.4%
Conference Champion 42.5% 44.7% 21.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.2% 1.0% 2.9%
First Round97.2% 97.7% 93.2%
Second Round82.0% 83.1% 70.7%
Sweet Sixteen53.7% 55.1% 40.1%
Elite Eight31.1% 32.2% 20.7%
Final Four17.2% 17.8% 11.6%
Championship Game9.4% 9.7% 7.3%
National Champion5.0% 5.2% 3.7%

Next Game: Colorado (Home) - 90.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 43 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 5
Quad 27 - 113 - 6
Quad 38 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 206   Cal St. Bakersfield W 95-58 97%     1 - 0 +32.0 +14.4 +14.5
  Nov 12, 2021 6   Villanova W 86-77 OT 61%     2 - 0 +23.6 +14.1 +9.1
  Nov 15, 2021 297   Long Beach St. W 100-79 99%     3 - 0 +10.7 +9.4 -1.3
  Nov 17, 2021 288   North Florida W 98-63 99%     4 - 0 +25.2 +14.1 +9.5
  Nov 22, 2021 177   Bellarmine W 75-62 95%     5 - 0 +12.1 -0.1 +12.2
  Nov 23, 2021 1   Gonzaga L 63-83 35%     5 - 1 +1.5 -2.8 +4.5
  Nov 27, 2021 147   @ UNLV W 73-51 88%     6 - 1 +26.5 +13.8 +15.8
  Dec 01, 2021 75   Colorado W 79-65 91%    
  Dec 05, 2021 145   @ Washington W 80-67 89%    
  Dec 11, 2021 62   @ Marquette W 82-75 74%    
  Dec 15, 2021 339   Alabama St. W 90-57 100.0%   
  Dec 18, 2021 43   North Carolina W 84-77 75%    
  Dec 22, 2021 316   Cal Poly W 83-54 99.8%   
  Dec 30, 2021 4   Arizona W 79-76 59%    
  Jan 01, 2022 96   Arizona St. W 83-68 91%    
  Jan 06, 2022 95   @ Stanford W 78-69 80%    
  Jan 08, 2022 122   @ California W 73-61 86%    
  Jan 13, 2022 44   Oregon W 77-67 84%    
  Jan 15, 2022 127   Oregon St. W 78-60 94%    
  Jan 20, 2022 57   @ Utah W 75-69 72%    
  Jan 22, 2022 75   @ Colorado W 76-68 76%    
  Jan 27, 2022 122   California W 76-58 95%    
  Jan 29, 2022 95   Stanford W 81-66 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 4   @ Arizona L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 05, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. W 80-71 79%    
  Feb 12, 2022 16   @ USC L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 17, 2022 60   Washington St. W 80-67 88%    
  Feb 19, 2022 145   Washington W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 24, 2022 44   @ Oregon W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 26, 2022 127   @ Oregon St. W 75-63 86%    
  Mar 05, 2022 16   USC W 73-67 67%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 6.3 11.6 12.0 7.8 2.5 42.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.1 8.1 9.0 5.5 1.1 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 3.8 5.3 4.3 1.5 0.1 16.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.1 2.2 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.9 4.7 7.3 11.2 14.7 16.8 17.2 13.1 7.8 2.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
19-1 100.0% 7.8    7.5 0.3
18-2 91.5% 12.0    10.0 1.9 0.1
17-3 67.5% 11.6    7.5 3.7 0.4
16-4 37.6% 6.3    3.1 2.7 0.6
15-5 13.4% 2.0    0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1
14-6 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 42.5% 42.5 31.1 9.7 1.6 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.5% 100.0% 57.9% 42.1% 1.3 1.8 0.7 0.0 100.0%
19-1 7.8% 100.0% 54.8% 45.2% 1.5 4.8 2.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
18-2 13.1% 100.0% 47.4% 52.6% 2.0 4.5 5.5 2.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
17-3 17.2% 100.0% 38.7% 61.3% 2.7 2.5 4.9 6.4 2.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.8% 100.0% 32.7% 67.3% 3.6 0.4 2.2 5.8 4.9 2.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 14.7% 99.6% 27.7% 71.9% 4.8 0.0 0.3 2.6 3.8 3.5 2.8 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
14-6 11.2% 99.4% 21.5% 77.9% 6.0 0.0 0.7 1.3 2.4 2.9 1.9 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.3%
13-7 7.3% 96.8% 16.8% 80.0% 7.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.2 96.2%
12-8 4.7% 91.7% 9.2% 82.4% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.4 90.8%
11-9 2.9% 72.9% 7.1% 65.8% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.8 70.8%
10-10 0.9% 69.2% 7.6% 61.6% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 66.7%
9-11 0.4% 23.4% 23.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 23.4%
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13 0.1% 0.1
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 97.5% 32.5% 65.0% 4.1 14.2 16.0 18.6 13.6 9.8 8.7 5.6 4.1 3.1 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.5 96.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.1 19.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 78.5 21.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.3 70.9 29.1