Washington
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.6#145
Expected Predictive Rating-0.8#186
Pace75.0#54
Improvement+1.2#78

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#204
First Shot-1.6#217
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#133
Layup/Dunks-3.8#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#52
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#238
Freethrows+1.9#74
Improvement+1.3#56

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#95
First Shot+6.4#22
After Offensive Rebounds-3.9#342
Layups/Dunks+2.8#83
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#188
3 Pt Jumpshots+7.3#5
Freethrows-3.7#337
Improvement-0.1#188
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.9 10.1 12.1
.500 or above 6.6% 16.8% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 7.8% 21.7% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 32.6% 18.8% 33.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.3% 0.8% 0.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Away) - 3.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 60 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 9
Quad 23 - 54 - 14
Quad 35 - 58 - 19
Quad 43 - 211 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 312   Northern Illinois L 64-71 88%     0 - 1 -18.4 -17.8 +0.0
  Nov 11, 2021 317   Northern Arizona W 73-62 89%     1 - 1 -0.8 -13.4 +11.6
  Nov 15, 2021 199   Texas Southern W 72-65 73%     2 - 1 +2.2 -4.0 +6.1
  Nov 18, 2021 84   Wyoming L 72-77 OT 42%     2 - 2 -1.4 -11.1 +10.4
  Nov 22, 2021 115   George Mason W 77-74 43%     3 - 2 +6.2 +7.6 -1.3
  Nov 23, 2021 70   South Dakota St. W 87-76 29%     4 - 2 +18.2 +7.9 +9.7
  Nov 24, 2021 92   Nevada L 62-81 34%     4 - 3 -13.1 -12.8 +0.7
  Nov 27, 2021 146   Winthrop L 74-82 62%     4 - 4 -9.5 -10.2 +1.8
  Dec 02, 2021 4   @ Arizona L 67-86 3%    
  Dec 05, 2021 8   UCLA L 67-80 11%    
  Dec 12, 2021 1   @ Gonzaga L 68-91 2%    
  Dec 18, 2021 173   Seattle W 76-71 68%    
  Dec 21, 2021 152   Utah Valley W 72-68 64%    
  Dec 29, 2021 60   @ Washington St. L 68-77 20%    
  Jan 06, 2022 57   @ Utah L 66-75 19%    
  Jan 09, 2022 75   @ Colorado L 67-75 22%    
  Jan 12, 2022 122   California W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 15, 2022 95   Stanford L 72-73 48%    
  Jan 20, 2022 127   @ Oregon St. L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 23, 2022 44   @ Oregon L 65-77 15%    
  Jan 27, 2022 75   Colorado L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 29, 2022 57   Utah L 69-72 37%    
  Feb 03, 2022 122   @ California L 64-68 35%    
  Feb 06, 2022 95   @ Stanford L 69-76 27%    
  Feb 10, 2022 96   Arizona St. L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 12, 2022 4   Arizona L 70-83 12%    
  Feb 17, 2022 16   @ USC L 61-77 7%    
  Feb 19, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 64-83 4%    
  Feb 26, 2022 60   Washington St. L 71-74 40%    
  Mar 03, 2022 44   Oregon L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 05, 2022 127   Oregon St. W 69-67 59%    
Projected Record 11 - 20 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.5 1.9 0.3 0.1 6.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 3.0 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 7.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 5.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 5.4 4.4 1.1 0.0 12.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.9 5.5 1.7 0.2 15.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.6 7.2 5.8 1.6 0.1 18.7 11th
12th 0.6 3.0 5.6 7.0 4.6 1.1 0.1 21.9 12th
Total 0.6 3.0 6.0 10.7 14.2 14.5 14.2 13.0 9.6 6.4 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.1 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 25.6% 25.6% 10.0 0.0 0.1 25.6%
14-6 0.1% 56.1% 56.1% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 56.1%
13-7 0.6% 8.7% 0.3% 8.4% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.4%
12-8 0.8% 3.2% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.7 3.2%
11-9 2.2% 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 1.9%
10-10 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 11.9 0.0 0.0 4.0
9-11 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 6.4
8-12 9.6% 0.2% 0.2% 14.1 0.0 0.0 9.6
7-13 13.0% 0.3% 0.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 13.0
6-14 14.2% 14.2
5-15 14.5% 14.5
4-16 14.2% 14.2
3-17 10.7% 10.7
2-18 6.0% 6.0
1-19 3.0% 3.0
0-20 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%