Washington
Big Ten
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.9 #45
Expected Predictive Rating +9.9 #61
Pace 68.4 #190
Improvement +3.1 #52

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 B- B+ B- C+ D
Defense #61 B+ B C- B A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #231 1.26 #69 +0.9 #145
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #50 0.89 #41 +4.5 #17
Three Pointers 36% #294 1.07 #100 -1.8 #248
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #74 +3.6 #74
Freethrows 0.30 #213 78% #19 0.23 #144
Second Chance 36.9% #29 1.10 #80 0.41 #38
Turnovers 15.1% #73
Total Offense +7.0 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 1.11 #112 +4.6 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #19 0.71 #89 -2.1 #334
Three Pointers 40% #223 0.89 #33 +3.1 #61
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #36 +5.5 #36
Freethrows 0.26 #49 69% #32 0.18 #33
Second Chance 25.8% #37 0.97 #92 0.25 #40
Turnovers 16.0% #235
Total Defense +4.9 #61

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.1% #310 -2.8% #19
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.3% #47 -8.3% #45
Possession Length 16.7 #119 18.3 #317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #80 0.09 #10
Improvement +3.5 #33 -0.3 #211

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.6% 40.9% 14.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 22.4% 40.7% 14.5%
Average Seed 10.3 10.0 10.6
.500 or above 88.3% 97.0% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 39.0% 62.7% 28.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.1% 16.6% 10.2%
First Round16.8% 32.6% 9.9%
Second Round6.7% 13.4% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 3.0% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
Final Four0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 30.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 10
Quad 25 - 48 - 14
Quad 35 - 112 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 322 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 50 98% +21  1 - 0 +31 +11 B A D- +18 A+ A+ B+
 Thu, Nov 6 274 Denver W 84 - 70 97% +8  2 - 0 +5 +1 C- B- C +4 C- A+ B+
 Sun, Nov 9 42 @Baylor L 69 - 78 37% -4  2 - 1 +6 +0 C- C- C +6 B- A+ D
 Fri, Nov 14 127 @Washington St. W 81 - 69 74% +10  3 - 1 +17 +19 B+ B A- -0 A C- F
 Tue, Nov 18 266 Southern W 99 - 93 2OT 96% -3  4 - 1 -3 -1 F B+ B- -3 B- F B-
 Thu, Nov 27 70 Nevada W 83 - 66 64% +7  5 - 1 +25 +11 A C D +14 A+ A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 77 Colorado L 68 - 81 66% -9  5 - 2 -5 -2 F B A+ -3 B- D+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 33 UCLA L 80 - 82 52% -3  5 - 3 0 - 1 +9 +18 A+ A+ F+ -9 D- F+ D
 Sat, Dec 6 46 @USC W 84 - 76 40% -8  6 - 3 1 - 1 +23 +16 C+ A+ C+ +6 A+ A- F
 Sat, Dec 13 287 Southern Utah W 105 - 69 97% +18  7 - 3 +26 +26 A B A+ -0 D+ A+ F+
 Fri, Dec 19 131 @Seattle L 66 - 70 75% +2  7 - 4 +1 -4 D F C+ +5 B+ A C
 Mon, Dec 22 210 San Diego W 86 - 56 94% +16  8 - 4 +24 +5 F+ A+ B+ +18 A A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 107 Utah W 74 - 65 85% +3  9 - 4 +10 +1 B- D C+ +9 A+ D B-
 Sun, Jan 4 34 @Indiana L 80 - 90 30% -7  9 - 5 1 - 2 +7 +22 B+ A+ A+ -16 D+ D- F
 Wed, Jan 7 9 @Purdue L 73 - 81 13% -14  9 - 6 1 - 3 +16 +8 B+ C+ C +8 C+ F+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 36 Ohio St. W 81 - 74 53% +0  10 - 6 2 - 3 +18 +18 A- B A+ +1 A B C+
 Wed, Jan 14 1 Michigan L 72 - 82 17% -8  10 - 7 2 - 4 +12 +10 C+ A+ B- +3 A+ D F+
 Sat, Jan 17 10 Michigan St. L 63 - 80 33% -8  10 - 8 2 - 5 -1 +4 B+ B C -5 B- B F
 Wed, Jan 21 13 @Nebraska L 66 - 76 18% -10  10 - 9 2 - 6 +12 +10 B B+ A+ +1 C A+ C-
 Sun, Jan 25 83 Oregon W 72 - 57 78% +12  11 - 9 3 - 6 +19 +7 A- C- C- +13 A+ A+ D+
 Thu, Jan 29 5 @Illinois L 66 - 75 11% -5  11 - 10 3 - 7 +16 +12 A+ D- D- +3 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 31 67 @Northwestern W 76 - 62 52% +8  12 - 10 4 - 7 +25 +13 A- A- C+ +13 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Feb 4 21 Iowa L 74 - 84 41% -1  12 - 11 4 - 8 +4 +18 A+ A+ B+ -15 F A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 33 @UCLA L 70 - 76 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 114 Penn St. W 84 - 72 86%
 Sat, Feb 14 66 Minnesota W 73 - 66 73%
 Sat, Feb 21 116 @Maryland W 78 - 72 71%
 Tue, Feb 24 118 @Rutgers W 77 - 71 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 38 Wisconsin W 79 - 78 55%
 Wed, Mar 4 46 USC W 78 - 75 62%
 Sat, Mar 7 83 @Oregon W 75 - 73 57%
Totals 17 - 14 9 - 11 +12 +7 B- B+ B- +5 B+ B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.2 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.1 2.5 1.3 3.9 7th
8th 1.9 5.2 0.3 7.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 7.5 3.5 0.0 11.7 9th
10th 0.5 5.9 10.0 0.9 17.3 10th
11th 0.1 4.4 13.1 3.9 0.0 21.5 11th
12th 0.3 3.8 12.7 6.9 0.4 24.0 12th
13th 0.2 2.2 5.4 3.6 0.3 11.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
16th 16th
17th 17th
18th 18th
Total 0.0 0.5 3.0 9.5 21.1 26.9 23.8 12.5 2.8 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 2.8% 85.8% 85.8% 9.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.4 85.8%
11-9 12.5% 59.0% 0.4% 58.6% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 2.6 2.5 0.0 5.1 58.8%
10-10 23.8% 36.2% 0.4% 35.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.5 0.1 15.2 36.0%
9-11 26.9% 13.2% 0.1% 13.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.9 0.3 23.3 13.1%
8-12 21.1% 3.3% 0.1% 3.2% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 20.4 3.2%
7-13 9.5% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 9.5 0.2%
6-14 3.0% 3.0
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.6% 0.2% 22.4% 10.3 77.4 22.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3% 96.0% 8.1 4.0 24.0 40.0 16.0 12.0