Arizona
Pac-12
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+17.9#4
Expected Predictive Rating+20.2#5
Pace79.8#19
Improvement-0.4#210

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#16
First Shot+5.4#37
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#34
Layup/Dunks+6.6#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#128
Freethrows+2.0#66
Improvement+0.2#155

Defense
Total Defense+9.5#2
First Shot+9.8#7
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#203
Layups/Dunks+3.7#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#101
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#44
Freethrows+0.5#157
Improvement-0.6#238
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 5.4% 5.5% 2.5%
#1 Seed 21.7% 22.2% 8.8%
Top 2 Seed 42.9% 43.8% 17.5%
Top 4 Seed 71.2% 72.2% 44.9%
Top 6 Seed 87.0% 87.8% 67.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.4% 98.6% 94.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 97.6% 97.8% 92.5%
Average Seed 3.5 3.4 5.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.3% 99.4% 95.0%
Conference Champion 47.3% 48.2% 21.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.5% 3.0%
First Round98.3% 98.4% 94.3%
Second Round85.1% 85.6% 71.9%
Sweet Sixteen56.7% 57.2% 43.2%
Elite Eight34.3% 34.5% 29.0%
Final Four19.1% 19.2% 13.7%
Championship Game10.1% 10.2% 6.9%
National Champion5.1% 5.2% 2.0%

Next Game: Washington (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 4
Quad 27 - 114 - 5
Quad 38 - 021 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 317   Northern Arizona W 81-52 99%     1 - 0 +17.2 +0.5 +16.5
  Nov 12, 2021 286   UT Rio Grande Valley W 104-50 99%     2 - 0 +44.3 +11.5 +26.1
  Nov 16, 2021 182   North Dakota St. W 97-45 97%     3 - 0 +48.0 +20.2 +26.8
  Nov 19, 2021 53   Wichita St. W 82-78 OT 82%     4 - 0 +12.4 -0.5 +12.1
  Nov 21, 2021 15   Michigan W 80-62 61%     5 - 0 +33.0 +14.3 +18.6
  Nov 27, 2021 295   Sacramento St. W 105-59 99%     6 - 0 +35.7 +14.3 +15.3
  Dec 02, 2021 145   Washington W 86-67 97%    
  Dec 05, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. W 77-65 87%    
  Dec 08, 2021 84   Wyoming W 82-68 91%    
  Dec 11, 2021 30   @ Illinois W 79-76 60%    
  Dec 15, 2021 175   Northern Colorado W 88-66 98%    
  Dec 18, 2021 217   California Baptist W 90-67 99%    
  Dec 22, 2021 18   @ Tennessee W 75-74 51%    
  Dec 30, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 76-79 41%    
  Jan 02, 2022 16   @ USC L 72-73 50%    
  Jan 08, 2022 96   @ Arizona St. W 83-73 80%    
  Jan 13, 2022 75   Colorado W 81-67 89%    
  Jan 15, 2022 57   Utah W 81-68 88%    
  Jan 20, 2022 95   @ Stanford W 80-71 80%    
  Jan 23, 2022 122   @ California W 75-63 87%    
  Jan 29, 2022 96   Arizona St. W 86-70 91%    
  Feb 03, 2022 8   UCLA W 79-76 62%    
  Feb 05, 2022 16   USC W 75-69 70%    
  Feb 10, 2022 60   @ Washington St. W 79-72 73%    
  Feb 12, 2022 145   @ Washington W 83-70 88%    
  Feb 17, 2022 127   Oregon St. W 80-62 95%    
  Feb 19, 2022 44   Oregon W 80-69 83%    
  Feb 24, 2022 57   @ Utah W 78-71 73%    
  Feb 26, 2022 75   @ Colorado W 78-70 76%    
  Mar 03, 2022 95   Stanford W 83-68 91%    
  Mar 05, 2022 122   California W 78-60 94%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.0 6.8 12.8 14.3 8.5 2.5 47.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 7.6 8.7 5.6 1.3 28.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 3.3 5.0 3.8 1.2 0.2 14.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.3 6.9 10.5 13.6 16.6 18.5 15.6 8.5 2.5 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 2.5    2.5
19-1 100.0% 8.5    8.2 0.2
18-2 91.9% 14.3    11.9 2.3 0.1
17-3 69.2% 12.8    8.4 4.0 0.4
16-4 40.7% 6.8    3.6 2.6 0.6
15-5 14.8% 2.0    0.6 0.8 0.5 0.1
14-6 4.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.3% 47.3 35.3 10.2 1.6 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 2.5% 100.0% 58.4% 41.6% 1.2 1.9 0.6 0.0 100.0%
19-1 8.5% 100.0% 57.0% 43.0% 1.4 5.7 2.4 0.3 0.0 100.0%
18-2 15.6% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.7 7.5 5.8 1.7 0.5 0.1 100.0%
17-3 18.5% 100.0% 38.9% 61.1% 2.2 4.8 7.0 4.3 2.0 0.3 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.6% 100.0% 33.9% 66.1% 3.1 1.5 4.0 5.5 3.4 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.6% 100.0% 25.9% 74.1% 4.2 0.2 1.2 3.2 3.7 3.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 10.5% 99.2% 19.5% 79.7% 5.4 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.5 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
13-7 6.9% 99.3% 16.7% 82.6% 6.6 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.2%
12-8 3.3% 93.9% 14.1% 79.7% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 92.8%
11-9 2.2% 86.2% 5.1% 81.1% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.3 85.5%
10-10 1.1% 62.0% 4.3% 57.7% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 60.3%
9-11 0.4% 31.0% 31.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 31.0%
8-12 0.1% 45.6% 45.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 45.6%
7-13 0.1% 1.6% 1.6% 11.0 0.0 0.1 1.6%
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 98.4% 33.7% 64.7% 3.5 21.7 21.2 16.2 12.1 9.0 6.8 4.2 2.6 2.0 1.4 0.9 0.2 1.6 97.6%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 1.1 86.1 13.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 1.3 69.0 31.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.6 44.0 56.0