IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating	+17.7	#10
Expected Predictive Rating	+31.4	#1

Pace	73.8	#67
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+10.3	#9

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+7.3	#17

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	4.4%	4.4%	0.0%
#1 Seed	17.5%	17.6%	8.0%
Top 2 Seed	35.3%	35.5%	12.0%
Top 4 Seed	62.6%	62.9%	36.0%
Top 6 Seed	80.3%	80.5%	60.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	94.7%	94.9%	72.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	93.9%	94.1%	69.6%
Average Seed	3.9	3.9	4.9

.500 or above	98.1%	98.2%	88.0%
.500 or above in Conference	89.5%	89.7%	64.0%
Conference Champion	18.0%	18.0%	16.0%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

First Four	1.9%	1.9%	0.0%
First Round	93.8%	94.0%	72.0%
Second Round	80.0%	80.3%	56.0%
Sweet Sixteen	48.7%	48.9%	28.0%
Elite Eight	27.1%	27.2%	16.0%
Final Four	13.3%	13.3%	8.0%
Championship Game	6.3%	6.3%	8.0%
National Champion	3.3%	3.3%	4.0%

Next Game: Utah Tech (Home) - 99.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	4 - 5	4 - 5
Quad 1b	4 - 2	9 - 7
Quad 2	6 - 1	15 - 9
Quad 3	4 - 0	19 - 9
Quad 4	6 - 0	24 - 9

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 03, 2025	6	Florida	W	93-87	47%	1 - 0			+24.4	+15.2	+8.4
Nov 07, 2025	260	Utah Tech	W	87-61	99%
Nov 11, 2025	264	Northern Arizona	W	88-62	99%
Nov 14, 2025	20	UCLA	W	75-72	60%
Nov 19, 2025	4	@ Connecticut	L	71-75	34%
Nov 24, 2025	323	Denver	W	92-63	99.5%
Nov 29, 2025	245	Norfolk St.	W	86-61	99%
Dec 06, 2025	35	Auburn	W	82-74	75%
Dec 12, 2025	19	Alabama	W	86-84	56%
Dec 16, 2025	178	Abilene Christian	W	86-64	97%
Dec 20, 2025	39	San Diego St.	W	75-70	67%
Dec 22, 2025	214	Bethune-Cookman	W	90-66	99%
Dec 29, 2025	145	South Dakota St.	W	88-67	96%
Jan 03, 2026	79	@ Utah	W	82-74	76%
Jan 07, 2026	58	Kansas St.	W	84-72	84%
Jan 10, 2026	70	@ TCU	W	82-75	74%
Jan 14, 2026	74	Arizona St.	W	83-70	89%
Jan 17, 2026	81	@ Central Florida	W	85-77	76%
Jan 21, 2026	38	Cincinnati	W	79-71	75%
Jan 24, 2026	71	West Virginia	W	78-65	87%
Jan 26, 2026	13	@ BYU	L	77-79	42%
Jan 31, 2026	74	@ Arizona St.	W	80-73	75%
Feb 07, 2026	65	Oklahoma St.	W	88-76	85%
Feb 09, 2026	15	@ Kansas	L	75-77	43%
Feb 14, 2026	16	Texas Tech	W	78-74	64%
Feb 18, 2026	13	BYU	W	80-76	62%
Feb 21, 2026	1	@ Houston	L	65-72	26%
Feb 24, 2026	29	@ Baylor	W	77-76	52%
Feb 28, 2026	15	Kansas	W	78-74	62%
Mar 02, 2026	14	Iowa St.	W	77-73	65%
Mar 07, 2026	97	@ Colorado	W	80-71	79%
Projected Record						23 - 8	12 - 6

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Big 12 Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0		Total
1st														0.5	2.3	6.0	5.3	3.0	0.8		18.0	1st
2nd												0.0	0.8	3.8	6.4	4.3	1.2	0.2			16.7	2nd
3rd												0.6	4.1	5.9	3.3	0.5					14.4	3rd
4th											0.3	2.7	5.7	3.7	0.2						12.6	4th
5th										0.2	1.4	4.5	2.4	0.5							8.9	5th
6th									0.0	0.5	3.6	3.4	0.6								8.1	6th
7th									0.2	1.8	2.9	0.7	0.0								5.6	7th
8th								0.0	0.8	2.4	1.1	0.1									4.5	8th
9th							0.1	0.3	1.8	1.5	0.2										4.0	9th
10th							0.1	0.6	1.9	0.1											2.7	10th
11th							0.5	0.9	0.4	0.0											1.8	11th
12th						0.3	0.9	0.4	0.0												1.6	12th
13th						0.2	0.3														0.5	13th
14th					0.1	0.4	0.0														0.5	14th
15th				0.0	0.1	0.0															0.2	15th
16th				0.0																	0.0	16th

Total				0.1	0.2	0.9	1.9	2.2	5.2	6.5	9.6	12.0	13.6	14.3	12.2	10.8	6.5	3.2	0.8			Total

Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
18-0	100.0%	0.8		0.8
17-1	94.2%	3.0		2.8	0.2
16-2	81.7%	5.3		3.5	1.7	0.1
15-3	55.9%	6.0		2.8	2.6	0.4	0.2
14-4	19.0%	2.3		0.4	1.1	0.6	0.2
13-5	3.4%	0.5		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.0
12-6	0.0%
11-7	0.0%
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	18.0%	18.0		10.4	5.9	1.2	0.5	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
18-0	0.8%		100.0%	49.8%	50.2%	1.1		0.8	0.1																	100.0%
17-1	3.2%		100.0%	41.1%	58.9%	1.2		2.7	0.5																	100.0%
16-2	6.5%		100.0%	33.5%	66.5%	1.4		4.3	1.8	0.3	0.0															100.0%
15-3	10.8%		100.0%	23.6%	76.4%	1.8		4.5	4.5	1.4	0.4															100.0%
14-4	12.2%		100.0%	19.3%	80.7%	2.3		3.3	4.5	2.8	1.3	0.2	0.1													100.0%
13-5	14.3%		100.0%	11.7%	88.3%	3.0		1.4	3.8	4.5	3.0	1.2	0.3	0.0												100.0%
12-6	13.6%		100.0%	9.5%	90.5%	3.8		0.4	2.0	3.4	4.0	2.4	0.9	0.5		0.0										100.0%
11-7	12.0%		99.7%	6.7%	93.0%	4.8		0.1	0.5	1.8	2.8	3.2	2.1	1.1	0.3	0.2	0.0							0.0		99.7%
10-8	9.6%		98.8%	4.3%	94.5%	6.0			0.0	0.5	0.9	2.4	2.5	1.6	0.8	0.5	0.2	0.1						0.1		98.8%
9-9	6.5%		93.6%		93.6%	7.5					0.3	0.7	1.1	1.0	0.9	1.0	0.7	0.3						0.4		93.6%
8-10	5.2%		73.7%		73.7%	8.6						0.2	0.3	0.4	0.7	0.7	0.9	0.6						1.4		73.7%
7-11	2.2%		54.3%	1.7%	52.6%	9.8								0.0	0.0	0.5	0.3	0.3						1.0		53.5%
6-12	1.9%		32.7%		32.7%	10.4									0.0	0.1	0.1	0.3	0.0					1.3		32.7%
5-13	0.9%		8.3%		8.3%	11.5												0.0	0.0					0.8		8.3%
4-14	0.2%																							0.2
3-15	0.1%																							0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%		94.7%	13.0%	81.6%	3.9		17.5	17.8	14.7	12.6	10.3	7.4	4.6	2.7	2.9	2.3	1.7	0.1					5.3		93.9%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	1.0	100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%	100.0%	1.0	100.0