Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +24.3 #2
Expected Predictive Rating +33.5 #1
Pace 76.4 #26
Improvement -0.4 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #4 A B B A- C
Defense #2 A A B- B+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #19 1.42 #5 +10.4 #3
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #68 0.87 #48 +3.7 #31
Three Pointers 27% #363 1.16 #23 -5.0 #329
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #9 +9.2 #8
Freethrows 0.38 #15 74% #113 0.28 #17
Second Chance 40.6% #6 0.95 #283 0.39 #45
Turnovers 14.7% #51
Total Offense +12.1 #4

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 0.90 #4 +8.9 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% #5 0.70 #75 -3.2 #355
Three Pointers 38% #255 0.92 #63 +3.1 #62
1st FG Attempt 0.84 #4 +8.8 #4
Freethrows 0.24 #23 69% #38 0.17 #18
Second Chance 22.8% #4 0.85 #14 0.20 #4
Turnovers 19.1% #67
Total Defense +12.2 #2

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #222 -4.0% #6
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 18.4% #3 -13.7% #6
Possession Length 14.7 #12 17.8 #264
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.31 #5 0.10 #17
Improvement -0.6 #215 +0.2 #177

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 26.0% 26.3% 19.5%
#1 Seed 75.7% 76.5% 62.6%
Top 2 Seed 98.6% 98.7% 97.5%
Top 4 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.3 1.2 1.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 77.4% 78.6% 55.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.7% 99.7% 99.8%
Sweet Sixteen82.1% 82.2% 80.5%
Elite Eight60.3% 60.5% 56.3%
Final Four39.3% 39.5% 37.0%
Championship Game23.8% 23.9% 22.5%
National Champion14.6% 14.8% 10.2%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 94.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 28 - 2
Quad 1b8 - 115 - 3
Quad 26 - 021 - 3
Quad 33 - 024 - 3
Quad 47 - 031 - 3


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 7 Florida W 93 - 87 60% +1  1 - 0 +28 +18 A+ B C +9 B+ A+ B
 Fri, Nov 7 209 Utah Tech W 93 - 67 99% +11  2 - 0 +20 +16 A+ F+ C +4 A+ C+ B-
 Tue, Nov 11 306 Northern Arizona W 84 - 49 100% +24  3 - 0 +23 +1 B- C D- +22 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 33 UCLA W 69 - 65 82% -1  4 - 0 +18 +5 B- A- D+ +13 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 8 @Connecticut W 71 - 67 49% +4  5 - 0 +28 +19 C A+ A- +10 A- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 274 Denver W 103 - 73 99% +23  6 - 0 +21 +13 A+ D F+ +6 B+ C A-
 Sat, Nov 29 309 Norfolk St. W 98 - 61 100% +17  7 - 0 +25 +14 B- B B+ +9 C+ B- C
 Sat, Dec 6 28 Auburn W 97 - 68 86% +15  8 - 0 +42 +22 A+ A B +18 A+ A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 20 Alabama W 96 - 75 75% +7  9 - 0 +38 +20 A+ B- A+ +16 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 268 Abilene Christian W 96 - 62 99% +21  10 - 0 +25 +16 A+ A D +7 A- B+ C
 Sat, Dec 20 44 San Diego St. W 68 - 45 87% +5  11 - 0 +35 +12 B- A A- +26 A+ A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 222 Bethune-Cookman W 107 - 71 99% +15  12 - 0 +30 +20 A+ B- D +5 F+ A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 188 South Dakota St. W 99 - 71 99% +16  13 - 0 +23 +13 A- A+ D +7 A C- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 107 @Utah W 97 - 78 94% +15  14 - 0 1 - 0 +26 +18 A- A A- +6 A+ C+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 88 Kansas St. W 101 - 76 96% +14  15 - 0 2 - 0 +28 +14 B A+ A+ +10 A+ A F+
 Sat, Jan 10 50 @TCU W 86 - 73 85% +12  16 - 0 3 - 0 +26 +17 A- B A+ +9 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 14 73 Arizona St. W 89 - 82 95% +3  17 - 0 4 - 0 +12 +16 B+ A+ A+ -4 D A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 47 @Central Florida W 84 - 77 82% +6  18 - 0 5 - 0 +21 +11 A D B- +10 A+ C B-
 Wed, Jan 21 56 Cincinnati W 77 - 51 94% +7  19 - 0 6 - 0 +33 +19 D A+ A+ +16 A+ B+ A
 Sat, Jan 24 55 West Virginia W 88 - 53 94% +19  20 - 0 7 - 0 +42 +24 A+ C- A+ +19 A+ A+ C
 Mon, Jan 26 17 @BYU W 86 - 83 63% +8  21 - 0 8 - 0 +24 +15 A+ D C +9 B+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 31 73 @Arizona St. W 87 - 74 89% +4  22 - 0 9 - 0 +24 +13 B- A- B +10 A B+ C
 Sat, Feb 7 51 Oklahoma St. W 94 - 77 95%
 Mon, Feb 9 11 @Kansas W 78 - 76 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 19 Texas Tech W 85 - 75 82%
 Wed, Feb 18 17 BYU W 88 - 79 81%
 Sat, Feb 21 6 @Houston L 73 - 74 47%
 Tue, Feb 24 42 @Baylor W 85 - 76 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 11 Kansas W 81 - 73 78%
 Mon, Mar 2 4 Iowa St. W 81 - 76 68%
 Sat, Mar 7 77 @Colorado W 89 - 75 90%
Totals 29 - 2 16 - 2 +24 +12 A B B +12 A A B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 15.2 27.3 24.4 8.8 77.4 1st
2nd 0.4 6.6 6.8 1.4 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 2.7 0.4 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 1.8 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.2 0.9 3.6 11.2 22.4 28.7 24.4 8.8 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 8.8    8.8
17-1 100.0% 24.4    23.6 0.7
16-2 95.1% 27.3    20.8 6.4 0.1
15-3 68.1% 15.2    5.3 7.8 2.1 0.0
14-4 16.0% 1.8    0.1 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
13-5 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 77.4% 77.4 58.6 15.4 3.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 8.8% 100.0% 47.8% 52.2% 1.1 7.9 0.9 100.0%
17-1 24.4% 100.0% 43.8% 56.2% 1.1 21.2 3.2 0.0 100.0%
16-2 28.7% 100.0% 36.5% 63.5% 1.2 22.8 5.8 0.1 100.0%
15-3 22.4% 100.0% 32.2% 67.8% 1.3 15.8 6.3 0.2 100.0%
14-4 11.2% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 1.5 6.3 4.5 0.4 100.0%
13-5 3.6% 100.0% 22.8% 77.2% 1.7 1.5 1.7 0.4 100.0%
12-6 0.9% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
11-7 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 36.4% 63.6% 1.3 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.2% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.0% 100.0% 1.1 87.1 12.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.7% 100.0% 1.1 87.1 12.9