Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +23.6 #2
Expected Predictive Rating +30.7 #1
Pace 76.6 #32
Improvement +2.2 #75

Overall 1st FG Attempt Freethrows Second Chance Turnovers Shot Selection
Offense #8 A+ B+ A- C+ C
Defense #4 A+ B+ A+ B A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #42 1.41 #7 +9.3 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #92 0.86 #66 +3.0 #51
Three Pointers 30% #357 1.21 #11 -2.6 #273
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #7 +9.7 #7
Freethrows 20.2 #55 75% #101 15.2 #43
Second Chance 42.0% #5 0.97 #262 0.41 #40
Turnovers 15.8% #127
Total Offense +11.5 #8

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 0.98 #19 +6.9 #15
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #7 0.62 #31 -1.8 #305
Three Pointers 38% #273 0.96 #120 +2.8 #83
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #14 +7.9 #14
Freethrows 15.4 #92 66% #15 10.2 #322
Second Chance 22.1% #5 0.88 #24 0.19 #6
Turnovers 18.9% #66
Total Defense +12.1 #4

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.2% #204 -3.7% #10
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 19.2% #4 -12.3% #23
Possession Length 15.0 #26 17.5 #233
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #11 0.13 #50
Improvement -0.3 #206 +2.4 #43

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 16.8% 17.1% 8.7%
#1 Seed 58.1% 58.8% 39.7%
Top 2 Seed 89.4% 90.0% 74.5%
Top 4 Seed 99.4% 99.4% 97.0%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.6 1.5 2.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.8% 97.9%
Conference Champion 46.9% 47.9% 22.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round99.1% 99.2% 98.0%
Sweet Sixteen81.4% 81.7% 75.9%
Elite Eight58.3% 58.6% 49.3%
Final Four36.6% 37.0% 26.8%
Championship Game21.1% 21.3% 14.6%
National Champion11.7% 11.9% 6.2%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 96.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a8 - 38 - 3
Quad 1b6 - 114 - 4
Quad 26 - 020 - 4
Quad 33 - 023 - 4
Quad 47 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 13 Florida W 93-87 69%     0.9   1 - 0 +24.3 +16.8 +6.6
  Fri, Nov 7 219 Utah Tech W 93-67 99%     11.5   2 - 0 +19.7 +15.8 +3.4
  Tue, Nov 11 288 Northern Arizona W 84-49 99%     23.9   3 - 0 +24.8 +5.4 +18.9
  Fri, Nov 14 37 UCLA W 69-65 84%     -1.0   4 - 0 +17.1 +4.1 +13.2
  Wed, Nov 19 5 @Connecticut W 71-67 45%     3.5   5 - 0 +28.8 +19.5 +9.7
  Mon, Nov 24 266 Denver W 103-73 99%     22.8   6 - 0 +21.1 +12.4 +6.5
  Sat, Nov 29 274 Norfolk St. W 98-61 99%     17.5   7 - 0 +27.7 +15.7 +9.2
  Sat, Dec 6 31 Auburn W 97-68 88%     15.4   8 - 0 +39.9 +20.3 +17.9
  Sat, Dec 13 12 Alabama W 96-75 69%     6.6   9 - 0 +39.5 +20.4 +17.5
  Tue, Dec 16 210 Abilene Christian W 96-62 99%     20.8   10 - 0 +28.1 +16.9 +9.3
  Sat, Dec 20 50 San Diego St. W 68-45 88%     4.6   11 - 0 +33.6 +8.2 +28.0
  Mon, Dec 22 282 Bethune-Cookman W 107-71 99%     15.1   12 - 0 +26.3 +16.2 +6.0
  Mon, Dec 29 170 South Dakota St. W 99-71 99%     16.4   13 - 0 +24.1 +13.1 +8.2
  Sat, Jan 3 117 @Utah W 97-78 94%     15.0   14 - 0 1 - 0 +25.3 +18.0 +5.9
  Wed, Jan 7 72 Kansas St. W 94-75 96%    
  Sat, Jan 10 45 @TCU W 80-71 79%    
  Wed, Jan 14 84 Arizona St. W 90-71 96%    
  Sat, Jan 17 49 @Central Florida W 87-77 82%    
  Wed, Jan 21 59 Cincinnati W 83-66 95%    
  Sat, Jan 24 65 West Virginia W 80-62 95%    
  Mon, Jan 26 10 @BYU W 80-79 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 84 @Arizona St. W 87-74 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 54 Oklahoma St. W 94-77 94%    
  Mon, Feb 9 18 @Kansas W 79-75 64%    
  Sat, Feb 14 17 Texas Tech W 84-74 82%    
  Wed, Feb 18 10 BYU W 83-76 73%    
  Sat, Feb 21 11 @Houston W 72-71 54%    
  Tue, Feb 24 30 @Baylor W 85-79 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 18 Kansas W 82-72 82%    
  Mon, Mar 2 4 Iowa St. W 81-77 64%    
  Sat, Mar 7 80 @Colorado W 88-75 89%    
Projected Record 28 - 3 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 3.5 12.2 15.9 11.6 3.6 46.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.3 9.4 8.5 2.9 0.2 24.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 6.0 4.7 1.1 0.0 13.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 3.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 7.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.2 3.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.5 7.5 12.8 18.1 21.7 18.8 11.8 3.6 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 3.6    3.6
17-1 98.3% 11.6    10.6 1.0 0.0
16-2 84.5% 15.9    11.3 4.3 0.3 0.0
15-3 55.9% 12.2    5.4 5.2 1.4 0.1
14-4 19.3% 3.5    0.6 1.6 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 46.9% 46.9 31.5 12.1 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 3.6% 100.0% 50.4% 49.6% 1.1 3.2 0.4 100.0%
17-1 11.8% 100.0% 45.0% 55.0% 1.1 10.3 1.4 0.0 100.0%
16-2 18.8% 100.0% 39.0% 61.0% 1.2 14.7 4.0 0.1 100.0%
15-3 21.7% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.3 14.7 6.8 0.2 100.0%
14-4 18.1% 100.0% 30.5% 69.5% 1.6 9.2 7.7 1.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 12.8% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 1.8 4.5 6.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.5% 100.0% 17.8% 82.2% 2.3 1.3 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 100.0%
11-7 3.5% 100.0% 13.4% 86.6% 2.8 0.2 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 100.0%
10-8 1.5% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 3.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
9-9 0.6% 100.0% 7.1% 92.9% 4.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
8-10 0.2% 100.0% 5.3% 94.7% 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 32.7% 67.4% 1.6 58.1 31.4 7.9 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.8% 100.0% 1.1 90.8 9.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 92.4 7.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 100.0% 1.2 84.8 15.2