Arizona
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +24.0 3
Expected Predictive Rating +26.7 3
Pace 75.3 29
Improvement -1.7 252

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense A 12 A B+ B A- C-
Defense A+ 2 A A B- A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 31 A 70% 6 +8.9 4
2 Pt. Jumpers 51% 46 B 44% 45 +4.4 26
Three Pointers 27% 364 A- 39% 13 -4.9 327
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- -0.5 249 A +8.7 4
1st FG Attempt A 1.19 14
Second Chance A 40.7% 6 D+ 0.96 277 B+ 0.39 44
Turnovers B 14.6% 49
Freethrows A- 0.37 19 C+ 74% 141 A- 0.27 21
Total Offense A +11.1 12

Assists Blocks (Opponents')
Close Shots A- 64% 14 B 8.2% 42
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 33% 82 C+ 4.3% 128
Three Pointers B+ 92% 28 B 0.3% 52
Total B 62% 56 B- 5.0% 105

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 354 A 46% 5 -9.1 4
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 2 B 34% 55 +3.3 356
Three Pointers 39% 251 B+ 30% 32 -3.5 45
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.2 5 A -7.3 5
1st FG Attempt A 0.83 3
Second Chance A 22.8% 6 A 0.82 6 A 0.19 4
Turnovers B- 18.6% 75
Freethrows B+ 0.24 25 A- 68% 22 A- 0.17 17
Total Defense A+ +12.9 2

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 42% 59 B+ 16.4% 33
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C 25% 186 B- 6.5% 80
Three Pointers B- 80% 71 B- 1.6% 62
Total B 49% 52 B 7.5% 55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 15.0 13 17.9 277
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.30 5 0.10 20
Improvement -2.2 #295 +0.5 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 15% 20% 11%
#1 Seed 67% 76% 60%
Top 2 Seed 97% 99% 96%
Top 4 Seed 100% 100% 100%
Top 6 Seed 100% 100% 100%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100% 100% 100%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100% 100% 100%
Average Seed 1.4 1.3 1.4
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 54% 87% 27%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round100% 100% 100%
Second Round100% 100% 100%
Sweet Sixteen82% 83% 81%
Elite Eight58% 60% 56%
Final Four36% 38% 35%
Championship Game21% 22% 19%
National Champion11% 12% 10%

Next Game: Houston (Away) - 44.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a7 - 37 - 3
Quad 1b7 - 114 - 4
Quad 26 - 020 - 4
Quad 33 - 023 - 4
Quad 47 - 029 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 4 Florida W 93 - 87 53% +1  58% 1 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +17 A+ B C A+ +12 A- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 7 197 Utah Tech W 93 - 67 99% +11  89% 2 - 0 A +21 A +13 A+ F+ C- A- +7 A C+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 311 Northern Arizona W 84 - 49 100% +24  97% 3 - 0 A+ +23 C- -1 B- C D- A+ +24 A+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 39 UCLA W 69 - 65 84% -1  33% 4 - 0 A- +17 C+ +2 B- A D A+ +16 C+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 9 @Connecticut W 71 - 67 55% +4  84% 5 - 0 A+ +27 A +14 C- A+ A- A+ +13 A- A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 235 Denver W 103 - 73 99% +23  96% 6 - 0 A +23 A- +11 A+ D+ F A +10 A- C A
 Sat, Nov 29 306 Norfolk St. W 98 - 61 100% +17  85% 7 - 0 A+ +25 A- +11 B B+ A- A+ +12 B- B C-
 Sat, Dec 6 33 Auburn W 97 - 68 88% +15  90% 8 - 0 A+ +40 A+ +17 A+ A B- A+ +21 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 19 Alabama W 96 - 75 71% +7  63% 9 - 0 A+ +39 A+ +18 A B- A+ A+ +20 C+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 242 Abilene Christian W 96 - 62 99% +21  99% 10 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +15 A+ A+ D- A +9 B+ B+ C+
 Sat, Dec 20 43 San Diego St. W 68 - 45 87% +5  53% 11 - 0 A+ +35 A- +10 B A A A+ +28 A+ A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 22 240 Bethune-Cookman W 107 - 71 99% +15  92% 12 - 0 A+ +29 A+ +18 A+ B- F+ B+ +7 F A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 206 South Dakota St. W 99 - 71 99% +16  97% 13 - 0 A +22 A- +11 A- A+ D A +9 A- D+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 102 @Utah W 97 - 78 92% +15  98% 14 - 0 1 - 0 A+ +27 A+ +17 A- A B+ A +9 A C+ C
 Wed, Jan 7 92 Kansas St. W 101 - 76 96% +14  98% 15 - 0 2 - 0 A+ +28 A +12 B A A+ A+ +13 A+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 50 @TCU W 86 - 73 83% +12  94% 16 - 0 3 - 0 A+ +27 A +14 A- B+ A+ A+ +12 A B+ C+
 Wed, Jan 14 63 Arizona St. W 89 - 82 94% +3  66% 17 - 0 4 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +14 B+ A A+ C- -2 D- A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 52 @Central Florida W 84 - 77 84% +6  90% 18 - 0 5 - 0 A +21 B+ +8 A D- B- A+ +13 A+ C- B
 Wed, Jan 21 47 Cincinnati W 77 - 51 92% +7  91% 19 - 0 6 - 0 A+ +34 A+ +17 D A+ A+ A+ +20 A+ A A
 Sat, Jan 24 55 West Virginia W 88 - 53 93% +19  99% 20 - 0 7 - 0 A+ +42 A+ +22 A+ C- A+ A+ +21 A+ A+ C
 Mon, Jan 26 21 @BYU W 86 - 83 64% +8  79% 21 - 0 8 - 0 A+ +23 A +11 A+ D C A+ +12 A- A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 31 63 @Arizona St. W 87 - 74 87% +4  68% 22 - 0 9 - 0 A+ +25 A +12 B A- B- A+ +12 A- A- C+
 Sat, Feb 7 62 Oklahoma St. W 84 - 47 94% +19  92% 23 - 0 10 - 0 A+ +43 B- +4 C+ A- B A+ +36 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Feb 9 15 @Kansas L 78 - 82 58% +2  71% 23 - 1 10 - 1 A +18 A- +10 B+ A+ D A- +8 A+ D+ C+
 Sat, Feb 14 18 Texas Tech L 75 - 78 OT 79% +1  59% 23 - 2 10 - 2 B+ +12 B +6 D+ B+ A+ B+ +6 B+ A+ F+
 Wed, Feb 18 21 BYU W 75 - 68 82% +6  76% 24 - 2 11 - 2 A +21 B+ +8 A- C+ B+ A+ +14 A- A+ C
 Sat, Feb 21 6 @Houston L 72 - 73 45%
 Tue, Feb 24 48 @Baylor W 85 - 75 82%
 Sat, Feb 28 15 Kansas W 79 - 71 78%
 Mon, Mar 2 7 Iowa St. W 79 - 74 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 72 @Colorado W 86 - 73 88%
Totals 28 - 3 15 - 3 +24 A +11 A+ A C- A+ +13 A- C+ A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings A A B A- A 45% 51% 27% C- A A D+ B+ B A- C+ A- A+ A B B+ A 29% 32% 39% A+ A A A A B- B+ A- A-
1.25 70% 44% 39% +9 0 1.19 41% 1.0 .39 15% .37 74% .27 0.90 46% 34% 30% -7 -2 0.83 23% 0.8 .19 19% .24 68% .25
Nov
3		 Florida A+ A+ D A+ A+ 55% 42% 4% C A+ A+ D- B C A+ A+ A+ A+ C- A+ C+ A- 48% 14% 38% C+ A- A A+ A+ B+ F B+ D-
1.14 66% 32% 100% +5 -2 1.09 35% 0.6 .21 17% .56 82% .46 1.07 64% 0% 32% -3 +2 0.98 37% 0.8 .30 18% .45 67% .30
Nov
7		 Utah Tech A A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 26% 26% D A+ A- F F+ C- B C- B- A- C+ B A A 26% 26% 48% A+ A C B- C+ B+ F C F
1.31 84% 36% 50% +18 0 1.38 41% 0.5 .22 17% .34 70% .24 0.94 58% 33% 27% -6 -2 0.87 29% 0.8 .24 20% .47 70% .33
Nov
11		 Northern Arizona C- B F A+ B 34% 18% 48% D B- B F+ C D- A- A A A+ A- A+ C+ A+ 40% 37% 23% A- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ A+ D A+
1.18 65% 22% 46% +8 0 1.18 38% 0.9 .35 20% .37 81% .30 0.69 48% 21% 33% -11 -2 0.77 26% 0.4 .09 24% .13 71% .09
Nov
14		 UCLA C+ A- F F C+ 48% 17% 35% A- B- A- A- A D C C C A+ B B F D+ 18% 51% 31% A+ C+ A- A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+
1.02 68% 25% 25% -2 +1 1.00 37% 1.1 .40 22% .29 73% .21 0.96 56% 35% 56% +8 -5 1.08 27% 0.4 .12 24% .16 75% .12
Nov
19		 Connecticut A B D+ F C 47% 33% 20% D+ C- A+ A+ A+ A- A+ B+ A+ A+ D- D+ B B 19% 33% 48% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ F C A+ A
1.12 57% 33% 11% -9 -1 0.82 43% 1.2 .53 16% .47 76% .36 1.06 70% 47% 32% +4 -3 1.04 17% 0.8 .14 8% .31 50% .15
Nov
24		 Denver A- A+ A+ A+ A+ 38% 18% 44% C- A+ A+ F D+ F C+ F F A B B C B+ 23% 38% 38% A+ A- B D- C A F A+ D
1.37 81% 60% 50% +23 0 1.49 51% 0.7 .33 19% .33 45% .15 0.97 50% 35% 35% -2 -3 0.90 27% 1.3 .34 20% .40 67% .26
Nov
29		 Norfolk St. A- A- A- F B 57% 25% 18% C- B B+ B- B+ A- A+ C- A+ A+ C- D+ A+ C- 29% 49% 22% A+ B- A+ F B C- A+ A+ A+
1.30 72% 46% 22% +7 +1 1.18 39% 1.1 .42 13% .70 70% .49 0.81 56% 41% 25% -2 -4 0.89 20% 1.3 .25 19% .15 22% .03
Dec
6		 Auburn A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 30% 25% C- A+ A B- A B- F C+ F+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 27% 29% 44% A+ A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D- D
1.31 69% 65% 43% +16 -1 1.33 38% 1.1 .41 17% .20 75% .15 0.92 43% 27% 26% -13 -2 0.73 36% 0.8 .29 20% .42 80% .34
Dec
13		 Alabama A+ C A A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% C+ A A+ F B- A+ C+ B- C+ A+ B D D- C 26% 15% 58% A- C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B B+ B+
1.26 54% 47% 41% +4 -1 1.09 43% 0.7 .29 5% .28 70% .19 0.99 57% 50% 39% +6 0 1.13 9% 0.7 .06 20% .29 72% .21
Dec
16		 Abilene Christian A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 51% 19% 30% C+ A+ A A A+ D- A+ A- A+ A A A+ F+ B+ 36% 36% 29% A B+ A B- B+ C+ F A- D-
1.30 86% 50% 46% +22 +1 1.49 37% 1.3 .47 26% .69 79% .55 0.84 44% 25% 38% -8 -2 0.82 26% 0.8 .21 22% .43 64% .28
Dec
20		 San Diego St. A- C A+ D B+ 24% 31% 44% F+ B A+ F A A A+ D- A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 30% 44% 26% A+ A+ A A+ A+ F+ D B- D+
1.08 55% 50% 30% 0 -2 0.98 53% 0.7 .37 17% .52 67% .35 0.72 60% 18% 8% -18 -4 0.58 24% 0.4 .10 13% .35 74% .25
Dec
22		 Bethune-Cookman A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 51% 20% 29% C A+ A+ F B- F+ A+ B- A+ B+ B F F F 35% 23% 42% C+ F A+ C- A+ A+ C C+ C+
1.35 65% 60% 53% +17 +1 1.37 45% 0.9 .42 19% .55 74% .41 0.90 53% 45% 45% +7 -1 1.15 13% 1.0 .13 28% .32 67% .21
Dec
29		 South Dakota St. A- A+ F B A- 45% 18% 37% B- A- A- A A+ D A+ B A+ A A+ A+ F A 41% 25% 34% B A- A F D+ B- C A+ B+
1.27 78% 22% 37% +8 +1 1.20 36% 1.3 .48 18% .49 77% .38 0.91 42% 27% 40% -6 0 0.88 21% 1.6 .33 18% .27 53% .14
Jan
3		 Utah A+ B- A B+ A 53% 20% 27% B- A- A+ B- A B+ B+ A A- A A- F A+ A+ 49% 25% 25% B- A A- F+ C+ C A+ F A-
1.28 61% 50% 38% +6 +1 1.15 41% 1.1 .44 12% .31 76% .24 1.03 48% 50% 25% -5 0 0.92 26% 1.1 .28 16% .19 92% .17
Jan
7		 Kansas St. A A C+ F B+ 46% 32% 23% D+ B A B A A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 31% 23% 46% A A+ A+ C A F C F D
1.23 69% 39% 23% +2 -1 1.04 43% 1.3 .54 10% .53 77% .40 0.92 45% 33% 23% -12 -1 0.75 23% 1.1 .25 12% .26 84% .22
Jan
10		 TCU A C- A+ A+ B+ 56% 23% 21% B A- B- A- B+ A+ D+ B C- A+ A D- A+ A+ 45% 18% 37% C- A A+ F B+ C+ D C D
1.16 53% 54% 42% +3 +1 1.11 29% 1.2 .35 13% .23 73% .17 0.98 48% 44% 26% -8 +1 0.88 22% 1.4 .31 16% .39 71% .27
Jan
14		 Arizona St. A+ B+ B+ C A- 50% 32% 18% C- B+ B+ A A A+ A+ A- A+ C- C- F F F 23% 33% 44% A+ D- A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+
1.26 64% 44% 33% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.3 .48 14% .43 81% .35 1.16 62% 47% 44% +11 -3 1.18 26% 0.8 .21 13% .18 64% .11
Jan
17		 Central Florida B+ A+ A+ F A+ 33% 42% 25% F A B F D- B- A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ A A+ 33% 32% 35% A A+ B F+ C- B A- F C+
1.13 82% 55% 23% +11 -3 1.17 29% 0.6 .16 16% .53 70% .37 1.03 40% 42% 29% -8 -2 0.83 33% 1.4 .45 17% .23 93% .21
Jan
21		 Cincinnati A+ A F F D 45% 33% 22% C- D A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ A+ B- A+ A+ 26% 36% 38% A+ A+ B A A A C F F+
1.19 64% 19% 18% -9 -1 0.82 45% 1.0 .45 9% .47 71% .34 0.78 33% 35% 22% -14 -3 0.68 28% 0.8 .23 22% .27 93% .26
Jan
24		 West Virginia A+ A+ D+ A A+ 40% 19% 42% B- A+ C+ D C- A+ A+ D A A+ A+ B+ A A+ 30% 37% 33% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A+ F A+
1.30 81% 30% 41% +12 0 1.26 27% 0.9 .23 7% .37 70% .25 0.78 41% 33% 26% -11 -3 0.75 19% 0.9 .16 16% .07 75% .05
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
26		 BYU A A+ A+ D+ A+ 36% 43% 21% D+ A+ C F D C A+ A+ A+ A+ B B+ F B- 11% 43% 46% A+ A- B A+ A+ B- B- A+ A-
1.14 76% 50% 30% +10 -3 1.17 25% 0.9 .21 17% .51 81% .42 1.10 57% 35% 43% +5 -5 1.02 33% 0.9 .29 16% .30 63% .19
Jan
31		 Arizona St. A B C C B 52% 31% 17% C B A+ D+ A- B- A+ C- A+ A+ A+ F C+ A- 33% 30% 37% A A- B+ B+ A- C+ B A+ A
1.18 63% 38% 33% +2 0 1.06 44% 1.0 .44 19% .43 73% .32 1.00 32% 59% 33% -3 -2 0.93 28% 1.1 .30 16% .32 60% .19
Feb
7		 Oklahoma St. B- A B+ F B 44% 35% 21% F C+ B A- A- B A+ F A- A+ B- A+ A+ A+ 16% 35% 49% A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ B- C- A+ A+
1.12 68% 45% 17% +1 -1 1.02 32% 1.3 .41 16% .40 64% .25 0.63 56% 16% 22% -17 -3 0.62 19% 0.5 .09 16% .37 48% .17
Feb
9		 Kansas A- D B- A+ A+ 28% 48% 23% F B+ A+ C+ A+ D C+ F C- A- A+ B+ C+ A+ 31% 42% 27% A+ A+ F+ B+ D+ C+ F F+ F
1.05 47% 38% 43% 0 -4 0.93 43% 0.9 .38 18% .23 57% .13 1.10 47% 30% 33% -7 -3 0.82 39% 1.1 .43 15% .40 84% .33
Feb
14		 Texas Tech B F A- F+ C 25% 46% 29% F D+ A- B- B+ A+ A+ A A+ B+ F B+ C+ B+ 21% 25% 54% B+ B+ A- A+ A+ F+ D B+ C-
1.07 38% 46% 27% -4 -4 0.85 33% 1.0 .33 10% .49 74% .36 1.11 75% 36% 35% +4 -2 1.07 30% 0.5 .15 11% .30 68% .21
Feb
18		 BYU B+ C- B- A+ A 29% 36% 35% C- A- A- F C+ B+ D+ D+ D+ A+ D+ D- A B+ 24% 41% 35% A+ A- A+ A+ A+ C B+ F+ B-
1.13 56% 40% 42% +4 -3 1.05 34% 0.9 .31 14% .21 67% .14 1.03 67% 48% 28% +3 -4 1.00 25% 0.8 .19 14% .28 81% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 4.5 30.5 19.1 54.1 1st
2nd 1.2 19.6 8.3 29.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.5 5.1 10.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 4.0 5.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 2.0 10.8 29.2 38.8 19.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 19.1    19.1
15-3 78.6% 30.5    11.3 18.2 1.0
14-4 15.5% 4.5    0.1 1.0 2.1 1.3 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8
9-9
Total 54.1% 54.1 30.5 19.2 3.1 1.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 19.1% 100.0% 42.2% 57.8% 1.1 16.3 2.8 0.0 100.0%
15-3 38.8% 100.0% 37.4% 62.6% 1.3 28.2 10.3 0.3 100.0%
14-4 29.2% 100.0% 32.9% 67.1% 1.4 17.7 10.9 0.6 100.0%
13-5 10.8% 100.0% 22.1% 77.9% 1.7 4.5 5.3 1.0 0.1 100.0%
12-6 2.0% 100.0% 19.1% 80.9% 2.1 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.1 100.0%
11-7 0.1% 100.0% 8.0% 92.0% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 100.0% 34.9% 65.1% 1.4 100.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.1% 100.0% 1.1 90.6 9.3 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 4.0% 100.0% 1.2 84.6 15.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 4.9% 100.0% 1.2 79.4 20.4 0.2