Arizona
Pac-12
2022-23 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+20.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+16.3#8
Pace79.2#12
Improvement-3.9#325

Offense
Total Offense+12.0#5
First Shot+9.6#7
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#44
Layup/Dunks+10.6#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#270
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#222
Freethrows+1.9#64
Improvement+0.0#182

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#12
First Shot+7.4#11
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#117
Layups/Dunks+9.0#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#313
Freethrows+4.6#4
Improvement-3.9#340
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.5% 7.2% 1.2%
#1 Seed 41.4% 44.9% 16.8%
Top 2 Seed 85.7% 88.8% 63.6%
Top 4 Seed 99.9% 100.0% 99.1%
Top 6 Seed 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Average Seed 1.8 1.7 2.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 95.5% 97.5% 80.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Second Round98.0% 98.1% 96.7%
Sweet Sixteen77.0% 77.4% 73.9%
Elite Eight53.1% 53.8% 48.1%
Final Four32.2% 32.9% 27.1%
Championship Game19.1% 19.7% 14.9%
National Champion10.7% 11.1% 8.2%

Next Game: Arizona St. (Away) - 87.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 24 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 3
Quad 28 - 315 - 6
Quad 37 - 022 - 7
Quad 43 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2023 336   Morgan St. W 122-59 99.6%    1 - 0 +48.4 +30.2 +12.0
  Nov 10, 2023 9   @ Duke W 78-73 51%     2 - 0 +24.8 +6.8 +17.6
  Nov 13, 2023 262   Southern W 97-59 99%     3 - 0 +30.2 +9.6 +15.2
  Nov 17, 2023 131   Belmont W 100-68 96%     4 - 0 +31.4 +15.0 +13.0
  Nov 19, 2023 149   Texas Arlington W 101-56 97%     5 - 0 +43.2 +17.6 +20.9
  Nov 23, 2023 16   Michigan St. W 74-68 68%     6 - 0 +21.2 +11.7 +9.7
  Dec 02, 2023 138   Colgate W 82-55 96%     7 - 0 +26.1 +4.6 +19.8
  Dec 09, 2023 25   Wisconsin W 98-73 82%     8 - 0 +35.3 +22.0 +11.5
  Dec 16, 2023 1   Purdue L 84-92 47%     8 - 1 +12.9 +10.9 +2.7
  Dec 20, 2023 7   Alabama W 87-74 58%     9 - 1 +31.0 +7.0 +22.3
  Dec 23, 2023 33   Florida Atlantic L 95-96 2OT 78%     9 - 2 +11.1 +5.9 +5.3
  Dec 29, 2023 100   @ California W 100-81 87%     10 - 2 1 - 0 +27.0 +15.7 +8.5
  Dec 31, 2023 98   @ Stanford L 82-100 86%     10 - 3 1 - 1 -9.6 +6.5 -14.8
  Jan 04, 2024 31   Colorado W 97-50 84%     11 - 3 2 - 1 +56.4 +24.2 +30.8
  Jan 06, 2024 52   Utah W 92-73 88%     12 - 3 3 - 1 +26.1 +14.2 +10.2
  Jan 13, 2024 36   @ Washington St. L 70-73 71%     12 - 4 3 - 2 +11.3 +5.8 +5.4
  Jan 17, 2024 96   USC W 82-67 93%     13 - 4 4 - 2 +18.1 +5.9 +11.3
  Jan 20, 2024 80   UCLA W 77-71 92%     14 - 4 5 - 2 +10.2 +14.3 -3.8
  Jan 25, 2024 141   @ Oregon St. L 80-83 92%     14 - 5 5 - 3 +1.5 +12.6 -11.2
  Jan 27, 2024 53   @ Oregon W 87-78 77%     15 - 5 6 - 3 +21.3 +18.8 +2.4
  Feb 01, 2024 100   California W 91-65 94%     16 - 5 7 - 3 +28.6 +9.4 +16.4
  Feb 04, 2024 98   Stanford W 82-71 94%     17 - 5 8 - 3 +14.0 +9.4 +4.5
  Feb 08, 2024 52   @ Utah W 105-99 3OT 76%     18 - 5 9 - 3 +18.6 +14.2 +3.0
  Feb 10, 2024 31   @ Colorado W 99-79 69%     19 - 5 10 - 3 +34.9 +26.4 +7.4
  Feb 17, 2024 105   Arizona St. W 105-60 94%     20 - 5 11 - 3 +47.1 +31.1 +14.0
  Feb 22, 2024 36   Washington St. L 74-77 85%     20 - 6 11 - 4 +5.8 +4.9 +1.0
  Feb 24, 2024 62   Washington W 91-75 90%     21 - 6 12 - 4 +22.1 +7.8 +12.2
  Feb 28, 2024 105   @ Arizona St. W 85-73 88%    
  Mar 02, 2024 53   Oregon W 87-74 90%    
  Mar 07, 2024 80   @ UCLA W 77-67 83%    
  Mar 09, 2024 96   @ USC W 86-75 85%    
Projected Record 24 - 7 15 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 4.8 33.8 56.8 95.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.5 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 8.3 33.8 56.8 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 56.8    56.8
15-5 100.0% 33.8    19.1 14.7
14-6 57.6% 4.8    1.2 3.2 0.4
13-7 12.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 95.5% 95.5 77.1 17.9 0.5 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 56.8% 100.0% 48.4% 51.6% 1.5 32.7 22.4 1.6 0.0 100.0%
15-5 33.8% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 2.0 8.2 18.7 6.4 0.5 0.0 100.0%
14-6 8.3% 100.0% 40.9% 59.1% 2.7 0.5 3.0 3.8 1.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 1.1% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 3.3 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.1% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 5.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 100.0% 46.5% 53.5% 1.8 41.4 44.3 12.2 1.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 56.8% 100.0% 1.5 57.7 39.5 2.8 0.0
Lose Out 0.1% 100.0% 5.4 20.7 37.9 27.6 6.9 6.9