Arizona
Pac-12
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+18.4#6
Expected Predictive Rating+24.1#3
Pace85.5#1
Improvement+0.1#62

Offense
Total Offense+13.8#1
First Shot+15.5#1
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#286
Layup/Dunks+10.1#1
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#166
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#131
Freethrows+3.8#20
Improvement+0.2#61

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#57
First Shot+2.9#83
After Offensive Rebounds+1.6#72
Layups/Dunks+5.2#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#278
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#210
Freethrows-0.8#226
Improvement+0.0#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.0% 7.2% 2.1%
#1 Seed 24.1% 28.3% 10.6%
Top 2 Seed 46.4% 52.8% 25.8%
Top 4 Seed 76.2% 81.9% 57.9%
Top 6 Seed 91.1% 94.2% 80.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.5% 99.8% 98.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.7% 97.8%
Average Seed 3.2 2.9 4.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 98.6%
Conference Champion 56.8% 62.8% 37.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round99.3% 99.7% 98.1%
Second Round87.4% 89.9% 79.3%
Sweet Sixteen59.6% 63.0% 48.9%
Elite Eight35.2% 38.0% 26.2%
Final Four19.5% 21.3% 13.8%
Championship Game10.5% 11.7% 6.9%
National Champion5.5% 6.1% 3.5%

Next Game: Utah (Away) - 76.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 2 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 23 - 2
Quad 1b3 - 17 - 3
Quad 27 - 113 - 4
Quad 35 - 018 - 5
Quad 48 - 026 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 249   Nicholls St. W 117-75 98%     1 - 0 +34.6 +16.6 +9.3
  Nov 11, 2022 214   Southern W 95-78 98%     2 - 0 +11.2 +4.4 +3.8
  Nov 17, 2022 246   Utah Tech W 104-77 98%     3 - 0 +19.7 +20.6 -4.0
  Nov 21, 2022 89   Cincinnati W 101-93 87%     4 - 0 +14.0 +20.2 -6.9
  Nov 22, 2022 25   San Diego St. W 87-70 67%     5 - 0 +30.8 +16.3 +13.3
  Nov 23, 2022 8   Creighton W 81-79 53%     6 - 0 +19.5 +9.6 +9.8
  Dec 01, 2022 70   @ Utah W 84-77 76%    
  Dec 04, 2022 231   California W 87-62 99%    
  Dec 10, 2022 7   Indiana W 85-84 51%    
  Dec 13, 2022 250   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 99-73 99%    
  Dec 17, 2022 5   Tennessee W 79-76 61%    
  Dec 20, 2022 175   Montana St. W 93-71 98%    
  Dec 22, 2022 262   Morgan St. W 99-73 99%    
  Dec 31, 2022 40   @ Arizona St. W 82-77 67%    
  Jan 05, 2023 91   Washington W 92-76 92%    
  Jan 07, 2023 51   Washington St. W 88-76 85%    
  Jan 12, 2023 217   @ Oregon St. W 89-70 95%    
  Jan 14, 2023 50   @ Oregon W 88-82 70%    
  Jan 19, 2023 73   USC W 89-75 89%    
  Jan 21, 2023 9   UCLA W 87-83 63%    
  Jan 26, 2023 51   @ Washington St. W 85-79 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 91   @ Washington W 89-79 80%    
  Feb 02, 2023 50   Oregon W 91-79 85%    
  Feb 04, 2023 217   Oregon St. W 92-67 98%    
  Feb 09, 2023 231   @ California W 84-65 95%    
  Feb 11, 2023 79   @ Stanford W 82-74 77%    
  Feb 16, 2023 70   Utah W 87-74 88%    
  Feb 18, 2023 44   Colorado W 93-82 84%    
  Feb 25, 2023 40   Arizona St. W 85-74 83%    
  Mar 02, 2023 73   @ USC W 86-78 75%    
  Mar 04, 2023 9   @ UCLA L 84-86 42%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 3.5 9.0 14.2 15.3 10.2 3.7 56.8 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 4.5 7.9 7.4 4.1 0.8 26.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.6 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.7 0.6 0.1 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.8 9.4 13.3 16.8 18.3 16.1 10.2 3.7 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.7    3.7
19-1 100.0% 10.2    10.0 0.3
18-2 94.8% 15.3    13.4 1.9 0.0
17-3 77.4% 14.2    10.4 3.6 0.2
16-4 53.6% 9.0    5.0 3.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 26.4% 3.5    1.1 1.7 0.6 0.1
14-6 8.7% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 56.8% 56.8 43.7 11.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.7% 100.0% 55.1% 44.9% 1.2 3.1 0.6 0.0 100.0%
19-1 10.2% 100.0% 49.2% 50.8% 1.3 7.2 2.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
18-2 16.1% 100.0% 43.2% 56.8% 1.7 8.0 6.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
17-3 18.3% 100.0% 36.6% 63.4% 2.2 4.4 7.4 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 100.0%
16-4 16.8% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 3.0 1.3 4.3 5.5 4.1 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 13.3% 100.0% 26.3% 73.7% 4.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 4.4 2.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.4% 99.9% 24.1% 75.8% 5.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 2.8 2.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 5.8% 99.7% 17.3% 82.3% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.6%
12-8 3.3% 98.1% 16.9% 81.2% 7.3 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.7%
11-9 1.7% 94.9% 14.3% 80.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 94.1%
10-10 0.8% 91.7% 13.2% 78.5% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 90.4%
9-11 0.3% 58.2% 6.4% 51.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 55.3%
8-12 0.1% 31.0% 10.3% 20.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 23.1%
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.5% 33.8% 65.6% 3.2 24.1 22.3 16.8 13.0 8.8 6.1 3.7 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 1.1 86.6 13.0 0.4