Southland
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 McNeese St. 52.7%   13   3 - 4 0 - 0 21 - 8 17 - 3 +5.6      +3.7 80 +1.9 111 64.7 298 +2.5 129 0.0 5
166 UT Rio Grande Valley 14.4%   4 - 3 1 - 0 17 - 10 13 - 7 -0.6      +1.5 135 -2.1 243 76.5 29 +4.4 105 +10.5 2
197 Stephen F. Austin 9.5%   3 - 4 0 - 1 15 - 13 12 - 8 -1.7      -5.7 324 +4.0 76 65.0 291 -4.5 239 -12.8 8
215 TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.0%   3 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 14 11 - 9 -2.7      -0.7 194 -1.9 234 71.7 103 -8.3 297 -24.6 10
223 Nicholls St. 6.3%   3 - 4 1 - 0 14 - 14 12 - 8 -3.4      -2.4 238 -1.0 204 68.4 196 -1.5 195 +8.6 4
227 SE Louisiana 5.2%   3 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 14 11 - 9 -3.6      -4.6 299 +1.0 139 69.1 178 -3.2 222 -15.6 9
280 Lamar 2.4%   1 - 5 1 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -6.4      -3.7 277 -2.6 259 70.1 155 -10.4 321 +15.5 1
297 Northwestern St. 1.6%   2 - 5 1 - 0 11 - 17 10 - 10 -7.1      -4.2 285 -2.9 269 65.6 275 -5.8 262 +9.8 3
314 Incarnate Word 0.7%   3 - 4 0 - 1 11 - 16 8 - 12 -8.4      +0.2 170 -8.6 362 66.4 253 -10.4 320 -25.3 12
344 New Orleans 0.1%   2 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 23 6 - 14 -12.2      -6.3 337 -5.9 342 76.1 32 -8.2 294 0.0 5
351 Houston Christian 0.1%   1 - 6 1 - 0 6 - 23 6 - 14 -12.6      -4.2 287 -8.4 361 65.8 272 -17.1 358 -1.1 7
355 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   1 - 6 0 - 1 6 - 25 5 - 15 -13.3      -7.3 352 -6.0 345 66.5 250 -12.6 341 -24.8 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.5 74.9 14.7 5.2 2.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.3 16.5 28.5 18.0 12.8 9.0 6.2 4.1 2.6 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1
Stephen F. Austin 4.3 6.7 17.8 18.6 16.1 12.2 9.9 7.5 5.4 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.2
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.2 4.2 11.9 13.6 14.4 13.3 12.5 10.5 8.3 5.9 3.3 1.5 0.6
Nicholls St. 4.8 5.9 14.6 15.4 14.7 13.1 11.6 9.2 7.2 4.4 2.5 1.0 0.3
SE Louisiana 5.2 3.6 11.1 13.9 15.3 14.4 12.9 10.4 8.2 5.2 3.1 1.5 0.5
Lamar 6.1 2.4 6.9 9.6 11.5 12.2 13.1 12.9 11.6 9.5 5.8 3.1 1.3
Northwestern St. 6.5 1.5 5.0 7.6 10.1 10.7 13.3 13.6 13.6 11.2 7.4 4.2 1.8
Incarnate Word 7.7 0.4 2.3 4.3 6.0 7.7 10.0 12.0 14.6 16.1 12.7 8.5 5.5
New Orleans 9.7 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.9 5.8 8.9 13.5 19.6 21.4 21.8
Houston Christian 9.5 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.7 4.2 6.5 9.5 14.6 20.3 22.9 16.5
Texas A&M - Commerce 10.4 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.9 6.4 10.3 17.1 25.3 32.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
McNeese St. 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.9 6.6 10.6 15.4 18.6 19.1 14.9 7.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.1 4.0 6.2 9.1 12.2 14.2 14.4 13.4 10.5 7.0 3.4 1.4 0.3
Stephen F. Austin 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.5 10.3 12.7 15.0 14.1 12.8 8.8 5.3 2.6 0.7 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.0 5.0 7.9 10.5 13.0 13.8 13.5 11.7 8.6 5.6 3.1 1.3 0.4 0.1
Nicholls St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.0 6.4 9.4 12.0 13.8 13.5 12.6 10.0 7.2 4.4 2.1 0.7 0.3 0.0
SE Louisiana 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.8 4.8 7.5 10.6 13.2 14.8 13.7 12.3 8.6 5.4 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
Lamar 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.6 10.8 12.9 13.7 12.9 10.8 8.5 5.4 3.2 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northwestern St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 6.6 10.0 12.7 14.1 13.7 12.0 9.1 6.6 4.0 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 8 - 12 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.8 5.2 7.9 11.3 13.3 13.8 13.3 10.8 8.3 5.7 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 6 - 14 0.7 2.8 6.5 10.7 13.8 14.8 14.3 12.3 9.4 6.3 4.0 2.4 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 6 - 14 1.3 5.1 9.5 13.9 15.8 15.4 13.1 9.9 6.9 4.6 2.3 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 5 - 15 1.3 5.2 10.5 14.4 16.5 15.9 13.0 9.7 6.3 3.8 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 74.9% 63.7 9.5 1.5 0.1 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 16.5% 9.9 5.5 1.1 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 6.7% 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.2% 2.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 5.9% 3.1 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 3.6% 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.0 0.0
Lamar 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 52.7% 52.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 3.1 18.2 18.3 9.3 2.5 0.3 47.3 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.7 5.1 3.4 0.7 85.6 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 9.5% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.4 3.0 3.5 1.3 90.5 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.0% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.8 2.7 1.9 93.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 2.6 1.2 93.7 0.0%
SE Louisiana 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.1 1.6 94.8 0.0%
Lamar 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 97.6 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 98.4 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.3 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 52.7% 0.1% 52.6% 10.0% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 14.4% 0.1% 14.3% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 9.5% 0.4% 9.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 7.0% 0.6% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 6.3% 0.4% 6.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 5.2% 0.5% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 2.4% 0.8% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.6% 0.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.7% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.2% 1.0 1.8 98.2 0.0
2nd Round 12.3% 0.1 87.7 12.3
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0