Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
81 McNeese St. 55.7%   12   6 - 2 1 - 1 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7.0      +2.4 113 +4.7 55 65.0 296 +9.0 68 -4.3 8
139 Stephen F. Austin 17.5%   6 - 2 1 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 7 +1.3      -0.3 176 +1.6 120 68.1 222 +2.7 133 +9.1 4
188 Incarnate Word 6.1%   2 - 5 1 - 2 14 - 14 12 - 10 -1.8      +2.1 116 -3.9 307 62.8 340 -3.6 226 -3.8 7
206 UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9%   2 - 6 0 - 1 13 - 16 11 - 11 -3.1      -3.2 255 +0.1 160 72.2 115 -5.3 247 -10.9 10
208 TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.1%   1 - 5 1 - 0 12 - 15 12 - 10 -3.2      -4.5 297 +1.3 128 68.4 212 -1.9 197 +14.7 1
220 Lamar 3.3%   3 - 4 0 - 1 14 - 15 10 - 12 -3.5      -5.5 319 +2.0 109 64.4 312 -3.4 220 -21.4 11
241 New Orleans 1.9%   3 - 7 1 - 1 12 - 19 10 - 12 -4.5      -0.8 186 -3.7 297 72.2 118 -2.1 203 -6.7 9
254 Nicholls St. 1.9%   1 - 7 1 - 0 10 - 20 10 - 12 -5.3      -4.1 279 -1.2 208 69.9 175 -9.7 307 +10.4 3
263 Houston Christian 1.9%   3 - 4 1 - 0 12 - 17 10 - 12 -5.5      -1.0 193 -4.5 323 62.8 339 -6.0 257 +13.7 2
273 SE Louisiana 1.1%   2 - 6 0 - 1 10 - 20 8 - 14 -5.8      -5.7 323 -0.2 171 67.5 235 -9.1 299 -24.9 12
285 Northwestern St. 0.9%   1 - 7 1 - 1 9 - 20 9 - 13 -6.7      -1.5 208 -5.3 336 63.3 324 -8.3 290 +3.6 5
290 East Texas A&M 0.7%   3 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 14 -7.2      -6.1 329 -1.1 201 69.9 177 -3.2 217 0.0 6




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 8 241 New Orleans 84 188 Incarnate Word 83   
Tue, Dec 9 81 McNeese St. 66 118 Rhode Island 64   
Wed, Dec 10 220 Lamar 71 55 San Diego St. 89   
Thu, Dec 11 175 Texas Arlington 58 206 UT Rio Grande Valley 50   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Dec 12 81 McNeese St. 77 290 East Texas A&M 59 94%   
Sat, Dec 13 263 Houston Christian 70 273 SE Louisiana 66 63%   
Sat, Dec 13 72 California 81 285 Northwestern St. 64 94%   
Sat, Dec 13 8 Houston 84 241 New Orleans 57 99%   
Mon, Dec 15 273 SE Louisiana 70 290 East Texas A&M 66 66%   
Mon, Dec 15 47 TCU 79 188 Incarnate Word 63 92%   
Mon, Dec 15 263 Houston Christian 63 81 McNeese St. 73 82%   
Tue, Dec 16 220 Lamar 68 206 UT Rio Grande Valley 66 60%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.5 72.4 17.9 5.5 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 3.0 22.9 31.7 16.8 10.4 6.3 4.3 3.0 1.9 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2
Incarnate Word 5.2 3.6 13.0 16.4 14.9 12.5 10.5 8.5 6.8 5.4 4.1 2.7 1.6
UT Rio Grande Valley 6.0 2.8 8.4 12.6 12.4 11.4 10.6 9.9 8.4 7.8 6.6 5.3 3.7
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.4 5.3 12.7 14.2 12.7 11.1 9.7 8.8 7.4 6.4 5.1 4.1 2.6
Lamar 6.7 2.0 6.3 9.2 10.2 10.7 10.8 10.2 9.5 9.1 8.2 7.5 6.2
New Orleans 7.1 1.1 4.1 7.5 9.3 10.4 11.0 11.2 11.5 10.1 9.9 8.1 5.7
Nicholls St. 7.0 1.7 5.1 8.0 9.5 10.2 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.3 8.3 6.9
Houston Christian 7.0 1.6 5.3 7.9 9.3 10.3 10.3 10.6 10.2 10.0 9.5 8.5 6.6
SE Louisiana 8.4 0.6 2.0 4.1 5.5 6.9 7.9 9.1 10.5 11.5 12.2 14.6 15.1
Northwestern St. 7.9 0.6 2.9 5.1 6.7 7.9 8.9 10.1 10.7 11.6 12.2 12.4 11.0
East Texas A&M 8.6 0.6 2.1 3.6 4.8 6.0 7.2 8.3 9.3 10.8 12.7 14.9 19.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.1 7.3 11.1 15.6 18.8 18.8 14.2 5.9
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.1 3.6 5.6 7.6 10.6 12.1 13.6 13.0 11.5 8.4 5.7 2.9 0.9 0.2
Incarnate Word 12 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.5 5.9 8.0 10.4 12.5 13.6 12.8 11.0 8.5 5.6 3.0 1.4 0.4 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 11 - 11 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.3 4.0 6.0 8.1 10.2 11.6 12.4 11.7 10.2 8.4 6.1 3.7 2.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.7 6.7 9.0 10.4 11.5 11.5 11.1 9.6 7.8 5.5 3.3 2.0 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Lamar 10 - 12 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.3 5.8 8.0 9.7 11.4 12.1 11.9 10.7 8.5 6.4 4.3 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.8 6.1 9.0 11.3 13.3 13.3 12.1 10.3 7.6 5.0 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 10 - 12 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 4.1 6.4 8.6 10.7 12.3 12.2 11.8 9.8 7.6 5.4 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 10 - 12 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.2 6.4 8.9 10.9 12.2 12.3 11.5 9.9 7.8 5.4 3.3 2.2 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 8 - 14 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.0 5.3 7.8 10.4 11.8 12.7 12.2 10.8 8.6 6.4 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 9 - 13 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.9 6.6 9.2 11.4 12.9 12.9 11.5 9.6 7.7 5.1 3.3 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 8 - 14 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.2 6.4 8.9 11.0 12.3 12.1 11.2 9.4 7.6 5.6 3.8 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 72.4% 61.3 9.8 1.2 0.1 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 22.9% 15.2 6.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
Incarnate Word 3.6% 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 2.8% 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.3% 3.0 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 2.0% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Houston Christian 1.6% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 55.7% 55.7% 0.0% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 9.1 29.0 14.3 2.4 0.1 44.3 0.1%
Stephen F. Austin 17.5% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.2 6.1 2.4 0.2 82.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.2 1.9 0.5 93.9 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.6 0.6 96.1 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 2.0 0.8 94.9 0.0%
Lamar 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.4 96.7 0.0%
New Orleans 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 98.1 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.8 98.1 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.5 98.1 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 98.9 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.1 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 55.7% 0.0% 55.7% 10.7% 2.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.5% 0.0% 17.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 6.1% 0.2% 6.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.9% 0.2% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 5.1% 0.3% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 3.3% 0.1% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.9% 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.9% 0.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 1.1% 0.3% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.9% 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.7% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 99.0 0.0
2nd Round 13.0% 0.1 87.0 13.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0