Southland
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
249 Nicholls St. 29.5%   16   1 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 13 12 - 6 -4.4      -2.4 245 -1.9 234 81.1 7 -0.9 194 0.0 1
250 TX A&M Corpus Christi 29.2%   3 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 12 12 - 6 -4.4      -1.3 210 -3.1 271 72.2 91 -6.7 275 0.0 1
261 Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 14 11 - 7 -5.0      -5.6 329 +0.6 162 68.3 191 -1.3 202 0.0 1
273 SE Louisiana 19.4%   2 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 7 -5.6      -1.9 223 -3.7 286 76.9 31 -0.5 184 0.0 1
282 Northwestern St. 15.5%   4 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 7 -6.1      -2.5 250 -3.6 282 65.5 263 +5.5 99 0.0 1
327 Incarnate Word 2.0%   2 - 4 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -10.9      -6.3 339 -4.6 300 64.5 286 -8.9 299 0.0 1
330 Lamar 1.9%   1 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 11 -11.2      -5.2 322 -6.0 318 66.3 244 -14.0 335 0.0 1
337 New Orleans 1.3%   1 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 19 7 - 11 -12.0      -5.1 319 -6.9 336 78.3 22 -17.6 352 0.0 1
340 Houston Christian 1.0%   0 - 6 0 - 0 8 - 20 7 - 11 -12.2      -8.6 352 -3.6 283 70.8 129 -19.8 360 0.0 1
354 McNeese St. 0.2%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 24 5 - 13 -14.5      -5.4 325 -9.0 358 68.2 197 -17.8 354 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Nicholls St. 3.1 29.0 19.7 15.4 12.3 9.0 6.4 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.5
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0 28.4 20.7 16.3 12.5 9.3 6.1 3.5 1.8 1.0 0.4
Texas A&M - Commerce 3.3 23.4 19.6 17.0 13.5 10.3 7.1 4.6 2.7 1.4 0.5
SE Louisiana 3.7 19.6 17.4 16.4 14.5 11.5 8.5 6.0 3.5 2.0 0.8
Northwestern St. 3.9 16.4 16.3 15.8 14.5 12.9 9.8 6.4 4.3 2.5 1.2
Incarnate Word 6.4 2.9 4.4 6.4 8.9 11.5 14.0 15.3 14.9 12.7 8.9
Lamar 6.5 2.5 4.4 6.5 8.5 10.8 13.8 15.2 14.8 13.3 10.3
New Orleans 6.9 1.8 3.0 5.0 6.8 9.7 12.4 14.8 16.0 16.3 14.2
Houston Christian 7.0 1.3 2.9 4.6 6.7 9.2 12.7 15.2 16.7 16.7 14.0
McNeese St. 8.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.1 5.0 8.3 12.1 16.9 22.3 29.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Nicholls St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 5.8 8.3 10.8 12.8 13.9 13.8 11.5 8.1 5.1 2.2 0.6
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.3 8.4 11.4 13.1 14.7 13.8 12.2 8.1 4.7 1.8 0.4
Texas A&M - Commerce 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 4.2 6.6 9.4 11.8 14.2 14.5 13.3 10.3 6.5 3.5 1.3 0.2
SE Louisiana 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.2 5.6 7.8 10.4 12.7 14.3 13.5 11.5 8.6 5.7 2.7 1.0 0.2
Northwestern St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 6.0 8.9 11.7 13.3 13.6 13.1 10.4 7.8 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.1
Incarnate Word 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.4 7.1 10.4 12.5 13.9 13.3 11.6 9.0 6.5 4.1 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Lamar 7 - 11 0.2 1.0 2.4 5.1 7.8 10.4 12.5 13.8 12.8 11.0 8.8 6.3 4.1 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.8 6.7 9.6 12.2 13.7 13.5 11.6 9.9 7.2 4.7 2.7 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 7 - 11 0.3 1.4 3.6 6.5 10.3 12.6 14.1 13.8 12.3 9.5 6.9 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 5 - 13 1.0 3.8 8.2 12.4 14.9 15.6 14.0 11.3 7.8 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nicholls St. 29.0% 19.4 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 28.4% 18.5 7.7 1.9 0.3 0.0
Texas A&M - Commerce 23.4% 14.7 6.5 1.8 0.3 0.0
SE Louisiana 19.6% 12.1 5.6 1.5 0.3 0.0
Northwestern St. 16.4% 9.8 5.0 1.3 0.3 0.0
Incarnate Word 2.9% 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Lamar 2.5% 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 1.8% 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 1.3% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
McNeese St. 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nicholls St. 29.5% 29.5% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.0 0.4 2.5 8.1 18.4 70.5 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 29.2% 29.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.1 23.0 70.8 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
SE Louisiana 19.4% 19.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.2 13.9 80.6 0.0%
Northwestern St. 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.6 9.3 84.5 0.0%
Incarnate Word 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 1.9 98.0 0.0%
Lamar 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.9 98.1 0.0%
New Orleans 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 1.3 98.7 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 99.0 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Nicholls St. 29.5% 12.2% 22.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 29.2% 16.2% 20.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas A&M - Commerce 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 19.4% 9.4% 14.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 15.5% 5.4% 12.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 2.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 1.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 72.7% 0.7 27.3 72.7
2nd Round 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0