Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
70 McNeese St. 59.3%   12   8 - 2 3 - 1 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7.9      +3.6 90 +4.3 63 66.5 264 +9.7 61 +1.8 5
136 Stephen F. Austin 17.0%   7 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 9 15 - 7 +1.7      -0.4 176 +2.0 106 67.5 232 +3.6 120 +9.4 2
164 Incarnate Word 8.4%   3 - 6 1 - 2 15 - 13 13 - 9 -0.3      +2.8 105 -3.2 283 63.0 336 -3.0 213 -3.3 8
192 UT Rio Grande Valley 5.2%   3 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 15 12 - 10 -2.1      -2.2 228 +0.1 154 73.3 76 -3.1 216 +1.2 6
215 TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0%   1 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 16 11 - 11 -3.6      -4.9 302 +1.3 126 68.4 214 -3.9 229 +1.2 6
232 Nicholls St. 2.2%   2 - 8 2 - 0 11 - 19 11 - 11 -4.4      -3.2 255 -1.2 205 70.8 147 -7.1 274 +9.6 1
242 New Orleans 1.5%   3 - 8 1 - 1 12 - 19 10 - 12 -4.7      -1.0 191 -3.7 296 72.9 88 -1.6 192 -6.3 9
255 Lamar 1.0%   3 - 6 0 - 2 11 - 18 8 - 14 -5.2      -5.1 307 -0.1 167 65.0 300 -7.8 286 -21.1 12
268 SE Louisiana 0.8%   3 - 8 1 - 2 10 - 20 8 - 14 -5.7      -5.1 310 -0.6 184 66.1 275 -8.6 301 -11.8 11
275 Northwestern St. 1.1%   1 - 8 1 - 1 9 - 20 9 - 13 -6.0      -1.2 199 -4.8 330 63.7 325 -9.0 308 +4.1 3
281 Houston Christian 0.5%   3 - 7 1 - 3 10 - 19 8 - 14 -6.4      -1.0 194 -5.3 336 62.3 347 -9.0 306 -8.4 10
305 East Texas A&M 0.3%   4 - 6 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 14 -8.0      -5.6 324 -2.4 250 73.7 67 -1.4 188 +4.1 3




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Dec 19 38 LSU 78 268 SE Louisiana 65   
Sat, Dec 20 255 Lamar 82 221 Nebraska Omaha 85   
Sun, Dec 21 232 Nicholls St. 82 135 Pacific 95   
Sun, Dec 21 288 Northern Arizona 66 164 Incarnate Word 90   
Sun, Dec 21 305 East Texas A&M 77 44 Texas A&M 118   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.3 78.3 15.9 3.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 2.7 21.5 37.2 18.1 9.6 5.8 3.4 1.9 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Incarnate Word 4.4 4.3 18.1 21.0 17.6 13.0 8.7 6.3 4.4 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.6
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.0 3.7 13.0 17.9 16.0 12.9 10.7 8.0 6.2 4.6 3.3 2.2 1.3
TX A&M Corpus Christi 6.0 1.9 8.1 12.3 13.4 12.6 11.8 10.0 8.6 7.2 5.9 4.8 3.3
Nicholls St. 6.0 1.7 7.1 11.7 13.2 13.3 12.5 11.2 9.4 7.6 5.9 4.3 2.3
New Orleans 7.1 0.6 3.6 7.2 9.4 10.8 11.5 11.9 11.2 10.6 9.5 7.8 5.9
Lamar 8.3 0.2 1.5 3.4 5.3 7.4 9.2 10.2 11.2 12.3 12.4 12.8 14.2
SE Louisiana 8.4 0.2 1.2 3.0 4.9 6.8 8.8 10.3 11.7 13.1 14.1 14.0 11.9
Northwestern St. 7.4 0.6 3.5 6.1 8.4 9.6 10.9 11.1 11.2 10.9 10.1 9.4 8.0
Houston Christian 8.6 0.1 1.0 2.5 4.4 6.2 8.3 10.3 12.1 13.3 14.2 14.3 13.2
East Texas A&M 8.7 0.2 1.2 2.7 4.4 5.7 7.9 9.4 11.0 12.0 13.6 15.1 17.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.2 4.8 8.9 14.0 19.0 22.1 18.4 8.8
Stephen F. Austin 15 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 4.3 6.9 9.4 12.4 14.1 14.3 13.0 9.8 6.4 3.4 1.0 0.2
Incarnate Word 13 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.3 5.3 8.0 11.0 13.2 14.4 13.9 11.5 8.2 5.2 2.3 0.7 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 12 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.2 5.2 7.6 10.2 12.1 13.0 12.9 11.6 8.8 6.5 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 11 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.7 5.9 8.2 10.6 11.8 12.8 12.0 10.3 8.2 5.9 3.7 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Nicholls St. 11 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.4 5.9 8.8 11.3 13.2 13.3 12.4 10.5 7.8 5.3 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
New Orleans 10 - 12 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.9 6.7 9.2 11.9 13.3 13.3 12.0 9.9 7.2 4.8 2.8 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Lamar 8 - 14 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.4 4.8 7.7 10.5 12.5 13.6 13.0 11.2 8.8 6.3 4.0 2.2 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 8 - 14 0.1 0.7 1.9 4.5 7.9 11.2 13.7 14.3 13.4 11.4 8.8 5.7 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 9 - 13 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 5.0 7.8 10.2 12.0 13.3 12.5 11.0 8.8 6.5 4.1 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 8 - 14 0.2 0.7 2.3 4.7 8.3 11.5 14.1 14.9 13.5 11.3 8.2 5.1 3.0 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 8 - 14 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.2 9.3 12.3 13.8 13.2 12.7 10.2 7.2 5.0 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 78.3% 67.7 9.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 21.5% 14.0 6.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0
Incarnate Word 4.3% 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UT Rio Grande Valley 3.7% 1.8 1.5 0.4 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Nicholls St. 1.7% 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
New Orleans 0.6% 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
SE Louisiana 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northwestern St. 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Houston Christian 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
East Texas A&M 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 59.3% 59.1% 0.2% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 11.9 33.0 11.9 1.2 0.0 40.8 0.4%
Stephen F. Austin 17.0% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.9 6.8 5.3 1.6 0.1 83.0 0.0%
Incarnate Word 8.4% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.3 3.0 2.0 0.4 91.7 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.9 0.5 94.9 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.6 97.0 0.0%
Nicholls St. 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 97.8 0.0%
New Orleans 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 98.5 0.0%
Lamar 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 99.0 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 99.2 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 98.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 99.5 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 59.3% 0.1% 59.2% 13.1% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 17.0% 0.0% 17.0% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 8.4% 0.1% 8.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 5.2% 0.1% 5.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.0% 0.3% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 2.2% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 1.5% 0.2% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 1.0% 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 1.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.0% 1.0 1.0 98.9 0.1
2nd Round 15.2% 0.2 84.8 15.2
Sweet Sixteen 3.4% 0.0 96.6 3.4
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0