Southland
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
232 Nicholls St. 38.9%   16   2 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 9 10 - 4 -3.5      -2.6 258 -0.9 206 74.8 63 +2.2 144 0.0 1
271 New Orleans 23.7%   2 - 4 0 - 0 12 - 14 9 - 5 -6.1      -0.9 202 -5.3 320 78.1 26 -9.4 303 0.0 1
317 TX A&M Corpus Christi 12.3%   3 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 12 8 - 7 -8.9      -5.8 325 -3.0 275 72.0 103 +4.1 121 0.0 1
325 SE Louisiana 11.1%   0 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 16 8 - 7 -9.9      -4.9 302 -5.0 313 70.7 141 -14.1 337 0.0 1
327 McNeese St. 8.1%   1 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 16 7 - 7 -10.2      -6.5 341 -3.7 287 80.8 11 -8.4 294 0.0 1
347 Northwestern St. 2.3%   0 - 5 0 - 0 6 - 20 5 - 10 -14.1      -5.5 320 -8.6 351 74.9 62 -13.0 330 0.0 1
349 Incarnate Word 1.5%   0 - 5 0 - 0 6 - 19 5 - 9 -14.5      -5.1 308 -9.4 354 64.9 284 -17.9 349 0.0 1
353 Houston Baptist 1.9%   0 - 4 0 - 0 5 - 17 5 - 10 -15.8      -5.4 313 -10.4 355 69.2 188 -12.6 329 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th
Nicholls St. 2.1 47.6 23.7 14.5 6.8 4.4 1.7 1.0 0.2
New Orleans 2.8 27.2 25.3 17.9 13.6 8.9 4.2 2.3 0.7
TX A&M Corpus Christi 3.4 19.3 20.2 18.3 14.8 11.1 8.3 5.0 2.6
SE Louisiana 3.8 15.3 16.8 15.9 17.0 13.1 10.7 7.0 4.1
McNeese St. 4.3 7.4 12.9 15.0 17.4 17.8 14.1 10.2 5.3
Northwestern St. 5.5 3.6 4.9 8.4 11.7 15.1 20.3 18.5 17.6
Incarnate Word 5.9 1.7 3.1 6.2 9.7 15.9 18.8 21.9 22.9
Houston Baptist 6.1 2.0 3.5 5.4 8.6 12.8 17.1 22.7 28.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0
Nicholls St. 10 - 4 0.2 0.5 1.4 2.4 5.5 9.2 13.0 17.3 18.3 16.2 11.1 4.8
New Orleans 9 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.5 3.2 7.0 10.3 12.8 17.8 16.4 14.5 9.9 4.3 1.4
TX A&M Corpus Christi 8 - 6 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 3.2 7.8 9.1 12.0 13.7 15.3 13.7 10.4 7.2 3.3 1.4
SE Louisiana 8 - 6 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.8 5.7 8.6 10.9 13.9 15.1 12.8 10.9 9.0 5.5 2.0 1.0
McNeese St. 7 - 7 0.0 0.9 1.8 4.2 8.3 11.9 14.7 15.7 14.0 13.2 8.3 4.7 1.9 0.5 0.1
Northwestern St. 5 - 9 1.2 3.2 7.3 10.7 14.2 16.3 14.9 11.9 8.6 5.1 3.9 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.1
Incarnate Word 5 - 9 1.5 5.2 9.6 13.0 15.5 16.4 14.8 10.1 7.2 4.1 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Houston Baptist 5 - 9 2.3 6.8 10.9 14.1 16.0 15.5 12.2 8.9 6.6 3.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Nicholls St. 47.6% 35.1 9.4 2.7 0.4 0.1
New Orleans 27.2% 17.1 7.7 2.0 0.4 0.1
TX A&M Corpus Christi 19.3% 11.8 5.5 1.6 0.3 0.1
SE Louisiana 15.3% 8.2 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1
McNeese St. 7.4% 3.8 2.5 0.9 0.2 0.1
Northwestern St. 3.6% 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.1
Incarnate Word 1.7% 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.1
Houston Baptist 2.0% 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Nicholls St. 38.9% 38.9% 0.0% 16   0.3 1.0 6.5 31.1 61.2 0.0%
New Orleans 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 1.0 22.6 76.3 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12.5% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 11.9 87.5 0.0%
SE Louisiana 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 11.2 88.8 0.0%
McNeese St. 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.1 8.1 91.9 0.0%
Northwestern St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 2.3 97.7 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 98.5 0.0%
Houston Baptist 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 1.9 98.2 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
Nicholls St. 38.9% 20.9% 27.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 23.7% 19.8% 12.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12.5% 10.2% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 11.2% 10.7% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
McNeese St. 8.1% 7.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 2.3% 2.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 1.5% 1.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Baptist 1.9% 1.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 57.5% 0.6 42.5 57.5
2nd Round 0.9% 0.0 99.1 0.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.2
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0