Southland
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
84 McNeese St. 48.5%   12   16 - 5 11 - 3 +6.3      +3.6 84 +2.7 95 66.0 253 +8.1 72 +4.6 2
103 Stephen F. Austin 38.6%   18 - 3 13 - 1 +4.7      +0.4 151 +4.3 67 66.5 240 +7.7 74 +12.3 1
179 UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1%   10 - 11 8 - 6 -1.2      -1.7 216 +0.6 146 68.2 195 -2.4 205 -2.2 5
195 Lamar 2.3%   10 - 11 7 - 7 -2.0      -2.1 227 +0.1 160 64.1 298 -3.7 222 -3.9 7
206 TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.6%   8 - 11 8 - 6 -2.7      -4.6 291 +1.9 116 66.5 239 -2.9 212 -1.9 4
212 New Orleans 2.2%   10 - 13 8 - 6 -2.9      +1.1 134 -4.0 292 72.2 86 -1.4 195 -2.4 6
245 Incarnate Word 0.5%   7 - 13 5 - 9 -4.9      -1.1 198 -3.7 287 66.0 252 -6.4 267 -7.1 8
248 Nicholls St. 1.0%   9 - 13 9 - 5 -5.0      -3.6 266 -1.4 226 70.5 130 -3.1 216 -0.1 3
279 SE Louisiana 0.1%   5 - 17 3 - 11 -6.7      -6.6 334 -0.2 167 65.9 255 -8.9 307 -10.2 12
283 Northwestern St. 0.1%   4 - 17 4 - 10 -7.0      -2.6 242 -4.4 302 63.9 306 -10.4 326 -8.4 10
303 Houston Christian 0.0%   6 - 15 4 - 10 -8.3      -2.0 225 -6.2 341 62.2 341 -9.0 309 -8.6 11
308 East Texas A&M 0.0%   7 - 15 4 - 10 -8.6      -6.7 338 -1.9 241 71.7 97 -6.2 265 -7.8 9


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Feb 2 84 McNeese St. 60 103 Stephen F. Austin 67   
Mon, Feb 2 206 TX A&M Corpus Christi 69 245 Incarnate Word 71   
Mon, Feb 2 195 Lamar 73 279 SE Louisiana 54   
Mon, Feb 2 248 Nicholls St. 61 283 Northwestern St. 58   
Mon, Feb 2 212 New Orleans 94 308 East Texas A&M 85   
Mon, Feb 2 303 Houston Christian 57 179 UT Rio Grande Valley 74   
Wed, Feb 4 283 Northwestern St. 68 308 East Texas A&M 74   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 212 New Orleans 78 179 UT Rio Grande Valley 76 55%   
Sat, Feb 7 195 Lamar 63 103 Stephen F. Austin 72 82%   
Sat, Feb 7 206 TX A&M Corpus Christi 69 248 Nicholls St. 70 53%   
Sat, Feb 7 303 Houston Christian 66 279 SE Louisiana 70 67%   
Sat, Feb 7 283 Northwestern St. 71 308 East Texas A&M 72 55%   
Sat, Feb 7 84 McNeese St. 80 245 Incarnate Word 66 90%   
Mon, Feb 9 206 TX A&M Corpus Christi 73 212 New Orleans 75 61%   
Mon, Feb 9 248 Nicholls St. 72 179 UT Rio Grande Valley 73 53%   
Mon, Feb 9 279 SE Louisiana 70 245 Incarnate Word 69 54%   
Mon, Feb 9 195 Lamar 73 283 Northwestern St. 65 78%   
Mon, Feb 9 103 Stephen F. Austin 78 308 East Texas A&M 62 93%   
Mon, Feb 9 303 Houston Christian 63 84 McNeese St. 80 94%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
McNeese St. 1.7 26.0 73.5 0.5 0.0 0.0
Stephen F. Austin 1.1 90.3 9.6 0.1
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.2 0.7 39.5 24.6 16.2 11.4 6.5 1.0 0.1 0.0
Lamar 5.4 0.0 15.7 17.0 19.2 19.7 21.3 6.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
TX A&M Corpus Christi 4.6 0.4 29.6 23.4 19.3 15.2 10.5 1.5 0.2 0.0
New Orleans 4.9 0.3 23.2 22.0 19.6 18.4 13.1 3.1 0.4 0.0
Incarnate Word 8.1 0.3 1.2 3.0 6.5 15.1 39.4 19.4 9.2 4.6 1.4
Nicholls St. 4.4 0.8 33.1 23.4 19.1 14.5 8.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
SE Louisiana 10.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 2.7 13.6 19.6 21.2 21.1 21.1
Northwestern St. 9.5 0.0 0.5 1.2 4.8 20.1 25.4 21.3 16.3 10.4
Houston Christian 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 11.3 21.7 21.9 22.2 19.9
East Texas A&M 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.2 14.7 22.3 23.1 21.0 16.1

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0
McNeese St. 18 - 4 23 - 6 0.1 0.5 2.5 8.5 22.9 36.8 28.7
Stephen F. Austin 19 - 3 24 - 5 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.9 16.2 28.7 32.1 15.5
UT Rio Grande Valley 12 - 10 14 - 15 0.2 1.7 6.9 16.9 26.6 25.8 15.9 5.4 0.7
Lamar 11 - 11 14 - 15 0.4 2.4 9.1 19.4 26.1 24.0 13.7 4.4 0.5
TX A&M Corpus Christi 12 - 10 12 - 15 0.4 3.1 11.0 21.4 27.1 21.9 11.4 3.3 0.4
New Orleans 12 - 10 14 - 17 0.7 4.8 14.3 24.3 26.5 19.3 7.8 2.2 0.2
Incarnate Word 8 - 14 10 - 18 1.3 6.9 17.3 25.3 24.4 16.4 6.6 1.7 0.1
Nicholls St. 12 - 10 12 - 18 1.8 9.9 20.9 27.2 22.8 12.0 4.4 1.0 0.1
SE Louisiana 7 - 15 9 - 21 1.5 6.9 16.6 25.0 24.8 15.7 7.4 2.0 0.2
Northwestern St. 7 - 15 7 - 22 2.0 10.3 21.9 27.3 22.9 11.1 3.9 0.5 0.1
Houston Christian 7 - 15 9 - 20 5.4 17.8 26.6 25.6 16.0 6.7 1.8 0.2 0.0
East Texas A&M 7 - 15 10 - 20 3.3 15.1 27.2 28.5 17.4 6.7 1.6 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
McNeese St. 26.0% 9.7 16.4
Stephen F. Austin 90.3% 74.0 16.4
UT Rio Grande Valley
Lamar
TX A&M Corpus Christi
New Orleans
Incarnate Word
Nicholls St.
SE Louisiana
Northwestern St.
Houston Christian
East Texas A&M


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
McNeese St. 48.5% 48.5% 0.0% 12   0.1 7.5 34.2 6.5 0.3 51.5 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 38.6% 38.6% 0.0% 2.6 20.6 14.0 1.5 0.0 61.4 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.6 0.2 95.9 0.0%
Lamar 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.2 97.7 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 0.6 97.4 0.0%
New Orleans 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.6 97.8 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 99.0 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.4% 1.0 0.6 99.4
2nd Round 11.0% 0.1 89.0 11.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.5 1.6
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
McNeese St. 48.5% 0.0% 48.5% 6.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stephen F. Austin 38.6% 0.0% 38.6% 4.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UT Rio Grande Valley 4.1% 0.1% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lamar 2.3% 0.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
TX A&M Corpus Christi 2.6% 0.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Orleans 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Incarnate Word 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Nicholls St. 1.0% 0.4% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SE Louisiana 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northwestern St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Houston Christian 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Texas A&M 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%